4 Letters of ADwD

[finger]

Stannis is a good candidate. At least, he has the means to send a letter. And he might want Jon by his side. But there are some questions open:

Let's imagine that Stannis has been actually defeated, and he's in a desperate situation. He's reusing some old Ramsay parchment for the letter. Otherwise, I don't think he would lie. He's too righteous and stubborn for that. Still, why should he deprecate Melisande and himself? I think these kind of details leave Stannis rather out.

The author must have a reason to send this letter, and the means to send it. He must know Jon well since he's enticing him in a very effective way. Who's there accomplishing these requirements?

 

[finger]

Another way to find out the author is regarding the fact that the letter made Jon move. It contained a lot of information given for free but hardly of any use. Still, he moved, so there must be something new in the letter.

He knew, or thought that the Boltons had WF and Arya. It's not this.

Now, he learns that Arya had fled. If he just want to look for her, he might very well ask cousin Karstark for a patrol of northeners who would do the task keenly and swifty. No need to move an army through the snow. Neither is this

What, then? Stannis' defeat? Does Jon mind it? He had refused to provide him with an army.

He might want Theon burnt, or something worse but, does he know about Reek? Even if he knew; again, a patrol is more that enough to fetch him.

I wonder if there's something that the letter implies and Jon knows. I'd look for in details like: Mance's in a cage, bring Val and Mance's son, tell Mellisande, the SEVEN DAY battle (far too long, isn't it?)

[bemused]

Stannis is a good candidate. At least, he has the means to send a letter. And he might want Jon by his side. But there are some questions open:

Let's imagine that Stannis has been actually defeated, and he's in a desperate situation. He's reusing some old Ramsay parchment for the letter. Otherwise, I don't think he would lie. He's too righteous and stubborn for that. Still, why should he deprecate Melisande and himself? I think these kind of details leave Stannis rather out.

The author must have a reason to send this letter, and the means to send it. He must know Jon well since he's enticing him in a very effective way. Who's there accomplishing these requirements?

 

I agree Stannis is a good candidate, and...

Stannis would definitely lie.. he just doesn't want to be seen to be lying. "Lightbringer" is a fake..a lie. Burning Rattleshirt was a lie (of course he knew) ..and so on.

If he has planned to fake his own death in order to take WF, he can't write to Jon as himself, in case the letter is intercepted.

Stannis said in his previous letter from Deepwood that he needs Jon at the wall, and besides, he would know that Jon could not get to WF soon enough to be of any help. He might have a reason to want Jon at WF if he had already won the battle, but in that case, he could write as himself, openly.

But as for let's imagine...

 Let's imagine that Stannis thinks Theon's prediction that Ramsay will be coming is very likely and that Ramsay would want to recapture "Arya" and Reek first and foremost.  .. or that he knows it to be true and Ramsay is riding on Arya's trail.

Stannis knows Jon is a tactical thinker..and Jon told us back in ASoS, that the best way to defend Castle Black against attack from the south is to ride out and ambush the attackers before they get there. (I'm sure Stannis would think so, too.)

Let's imagine that Stannis writes the letter , but he doesn't call Jon "bastard" repeatedly, he doesn't implicate Jon in releasing Mance, doesn't call Mel a whore, and doesn't dare Jon to come to WF. He wants to tell Jon that "Arya" is on her way to him, and that Ramsay is coming and will stop at nothing to get her back. The seven days of battle is a hint - I would guess it's an estimate of the least time Jon has to prepare before anyone could possibly reach CB. 

Let's imagine (and I think there are already hints of this) that Alliser Thorne is secretly back at CB, already leading Bowen & co. down the path to becoming assassins.

Clydas receives the raven (Jon is with Selyse). Bowen intercepts it and shows it to Thorne. They have everything necessary to produce the letter that frightened Clydas eventually brings to Jon, including Jon's "wedding announcement" letter from Ramsay, with an example of Ramsay's signature .. everything they need, except an adequate supply of pink wax, hence the smear.

The letter sounds like Thorne (bastard, bastard, bastard)..uses the same tactics that Thorne has used to (successfully) get a reaction from Jon on at least two occasions in the past ( the repeated use of "bastard" and false accusations against Jon and those dear to him ). 

Bowen already tried to label Jon a traitor in front of the NW and Flint and Norrey, over the plan to let the wildlings through (didn't seem to bother Flint and Norrey; we don't know how it played with the brothers on the wall , but there was no immediate reaction).. All in all, not too successful, because Bowen wasn't bright enough (or prepped enough) to counter Jon's logic. 

Now - the letter falsely implicates Jon in sparing Mance (could be seen as treason), when the NW , and Jon himself, would have executed him. It claims Jon sent Mance to WF, when we know he did not. It names Mel "red whore" as Thorne once named Ygritte "unwashed whore". It goads Jon to "come to WF" , which, if he did, taking sworn brothers with him, could again be seen as treason.

Not only does the letter hope to incite Jon to reckless action, but to introduce the attackers' defence before the act. The logical plan would be to attack Jon on the way to WF, and assert his treason to excuse their mutiny afterwards. When Jon is clearly not going to take the NW, they have to act (in Bowen's panicky estimation) before Jon leaves the wall - before he's actually done anything at all.

This is not a letter written in rage, but in cold calculation. The final forgery is Thorne's, whether Stannis, Mance or Ramsay wrote the original , but my bet is the original was written by Stannis.