R+L=J v.76

[MtnLion]

If Ned knew the King's guards vow, and it means what you say it means (they have to be with the king), why did he look for them at Storm's End? Did he think they had abandoned Viserys and Rhaella so they could crown Mace Tyrell?

Jaime was with the king, and the Kingsguard also defend the king (protect and defend) by leading his armies.

[MtnLion]

The Mystery is lost if your armor is recognised, obviously. I think Howland also, but he doesnt seem to be a great horse rider. Who knows. But the knight did speak with a booming voice. Though like I said this does not pertain to what I originally posted. I was looking at this from a Lyanna and Ned view. I said why would they keep Ned from a dying Lyanna, and you say cause they have Kingsgaurd vow.?

They are not keeping Ned from a dying Lyanna, they are keeping Ned from what she holds. It is a secret that they must protect. It is their vow to protect and defend the king. I don't see why it is difficult to grasp, without a deliberate effort.

I said it looks like Lya wouldn't choose to be there on her own will, and you say she was the KotLT.?

Lyanna being held against her will is intriguing in how it could be accomplished without noticeable wounds. Remember that she mentored the future First Ranger of the Night's Watch? She would carry a sword if her father allowed it? That she was half horse? That she secretly tilted at rings? That she "laid into three squires with a tourney sword"? Yes, it seems obvious to me that she was KotLT. That she was proficient at arms, and would only be subdued by a great force of arms, or the gentle touch of love.

Whats the point of having a thread debate if its all from one angle?

I don't see any new thoughts in your angle.

[Fred of Ashai]

I don't see anything to indicate a trigger for Ashara's Leap. Do you have something that I missed?

Yes, we are told twice that Ned showed up at Starfall and Ashara supposedly jumped off the tower.

She threw herself into the sea, I'm told. Why was that? For the brother you slew or the child you stole?

And:

"Why did she jump into the sea, though?"

"Her heart was broken."

There was a trigger for Ashara's death. We are offered two possibilities: Arthur's death or Ned's taking Jon. Either way, the trigger coincided with Ned going to Starfall after he left the Tower of Joy.

We are also told her body was never found.

So the sequence is: Ned goes to the Tower of Joy. He leaves with a baby. He takes it to Starfall. Ashara (recently pregnant) disappears. Wylla (who also has a child, hence the milk) is there too. So now there are three children in the mix.

Ned goes home, perhaps with Wylla, perhaps with some other wetnurse. He takes one of the babies.

Ashara disappears, mysteriously. I think she is still alive and she has one of the other babies.

Wylla winds up at Starfall with no baby. That is the one Barristan thinks was still born.

So which one is Lyanna's baby? The one with Ned or the one with Ashara?

[Ygrain]

Jaime was with the king, and the Kingsguard also defend the king (protect and defend) by leading his armies.

Hmm.... why might the KG be at Storms' End... legitimate commission, like when Lewyn Martell was sent for the Dornish troops, or Selmy to rally the remains of Connington's army, because the whole time, there were the other KG to fulfill the vow? And, of course, once Aerys was killed, Storms' End received the detailed news with zero delay... oh... wait....

Either way: the last centre of the Targaryen support and military force. How entirely illogical to expect there the presence of guys who, except being the king's bodyguards, are routinely assigned with leading military forces while the bodyguarding is done by their remaining brethren, which , the last time they checked. was covered.

- But, no need to preach to the choir, right? :-)

[MtnLion]

When Ser Willas Fell of the King's guard obeyed Larys' order, left the king with no King's guards, and swore a vow to take a simple, non-heir child to Storm's End whilst the king went somewhere Willas did not know; did poor Ser Willas break his King's guard vow?

Who was wearing the crown?

And, does he have a Kingsguard with him?

[MtnLion]

Yes, we are told twice that Ned showed up at Starfall and Ashara supposedly jumped off the tower.

And:

There was a trigger for Ashara's death. We are offered two possibilities: Arthur's death or Ned's taking Jon. Either way, the trigger coincided with Ned going to Starfall after he left the Tower of Joy.

We are also told her body was never found.

So the sequence is: Ned goes to the Tower of Joy. He leaves with a baby. He takes it to Starfall. Ashara (recently pregnant) disappears. Wylla (who also has a child, hence the milk) is there too. So now there are three children in the mix.

Ned goes home, perhaps with Wylla, perhaps with some other wetnurse. He takes one of the babies.

Ashara disappears, mysteriously. I think she is still alive and she has one of the other babies.

Wylla winds up at Starfall with no baby. That is the one Barristan thinks was still born.

So which one is Lyanna's baby? The one with Ned or the one with Ashara?

You are connecting Ned going to Starfall to Ashara's Leap. Ned went to Starfall, then left. Sometime later Ashara does her Leap, we simply know that she had not done the Leap when Ned arrived and left.

Do you really want to present a case where Ashara had a baby, but apparently no one Starfall knew about it? Then the idea is that Ashara climbed the Palestone Sword with baby in hand, to leap into the sea and never be found, while carrying said baby? Yet, no one is looking for the baby, either?

[Fred of Ashai]

Who was wearing the crown?

And, does he have a Kingsguard with him?

You mean Aemond?

And so one-eyed Aemond the kingslayer took up the iron-and-ruby crown of Aegon the Conqueror.... Yet Aemond did not take the style of king, but named himself Protector of the Realm and Prince Regent.

He didn't have any King's guard protection either.

Ser Criston and Prince Aemond decided to part ways. Cole would take command of their host and lead them south...but the Prince Regent would not accompany them. Instead he meant to fight his own war, raining fire on the traitors from the air.

Oh, and The Lord Commander knew that King Aegon had fled King's Landing, he thought he knew where the king was going, but he thought it more important to lead troops into battle than look for the king:

King Aegon had escaped Rhaenyra's grasp, this they knew, surely he would reclaim Sunfyre and rejoin his brothers.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I think you both missed the points I was trying to make... let me try again.

I don't think that, assuming Ashara had a stillborn daughter who's father was Brandon Stark, meaning Ned brother, that it could have been soon before Ned brought Dawn to Starfall. Before Rhaegar and Lyanna left Brandon was at Winterfell and Ashara was, god know where, but presumably not in Winterfell. They couldn't have been doing any baby making in this timeframe. So unless they go together after her left Winterfell but before he charged into the Red Keep demanding Rhaegar's head, their chid would have to have been born much earlier than the ToJ events.

When I said the dream wasn't literal I didn't mean that Ned had never had this dream before, just that it wasn't necessarily exactly how it happen in the dream. They didn't necessarily pose and exchange hauntingly beautifully prose that makes me cry every time I read it. Perhaps they exchange this information with other words or, I don't know, they just looked at each other and no words were necessary.

If Ashara got pregnant at Harrenhal, her child was born before Aegon (Elia wasn't pregnant yet at the tourney, or at least, nothing about her being pregnant is mentioned, and I guess it would have been mentioned if she had been, since it would make the scandal that much bigger), which means the child would have been more than 1 year old during the time of the Sack (being older than Aegon, who was 12 to 14 months old during the Sack).

It can be up to a couple of weeks after. It can also be pretty shortly after depending on the nature of the bacteria or the infection.

I took blood of bed to mean ned found her in childbirth... not some time after..

It can also be from a UTI unrelated to the birth alone.... if she had the uti and sepsis going in to childbirth she might have been lucky just to live through it.

:agree: The fever starts about three days postpartum, and runs its course in 5 to 10 days postpartum.

I think the wiki means that the symptoms start after about 3 days, in historical view, and today within the first 10 days after birth. This difference will most likely be because of the differences in hygene during the birth and during treatment after birth, and the intruments that are used during the birth itself.

You have put your finger on the central problem with the R+L=J theory: it does not account for Ashara's disappearance.

The best explanation for Ashara's disappearance is that she took Lyanna's purple-eyed baby into exile in Essos whilst Ned took her Stark looking baby by Ned -- Jon-- to Winterfell.

But those two children would be more than a year apart in age... While such a thing would not create any troubles for Ashara, Catelyn would notice the difference between a child of half a year old and a child of 2 years old...

Basically yes, there is a theory that he was trying to recreate the original triad with a second daughter as Visenya, but the only problem is, someone who is supposedly following the prophesy to the letter, he would have gotten the sisters backwards.

Rhaenys was actually the younger one, while Visenya was the older one, so I don't really go with that.

Perhaps to secure the line? Aegon and Rhaenys had a son first, and Aenys inherited because he was the eldest of the two sons. But, IIRC it was during the reading of "the sons of the dragon", it was said that there had been a discussion about whether or not Aenys or Maegor should be Aegon's heir, since Maegor was Aegon's son by his older sister, even though Aenys was the oldest of the two boys.

If Rhaegar wanted a child of Aegon and Rhaenys (his children) to inherit, making sure that Rhaenys was the elder would secure such a position.

[Jon Weirgaryen]

So which one is Lyanna's baby? The one with Ned or the one with Ashara?

What's in the thread's title?

For the thought on Ashara's possible baby:

Assumption 1: Ashara and Brandon at the Tourney at Harrenhall: the baby will be months older than Aegon Targaryen (born 4-8 weeks earlier and than lived a few weeks longer) at the time Ned arrives at the Tower of Joy, so that's maybe 15 months, but definitely more than a year older than Jon.

Assumption 2: Ashara and Brandon-or-Ned nine months before the Tower of Joy. Nine months before the Tower of Joy is the wedding of Cat and Ned. At that time, Brandon is more than 5 months dead. Unless he pulled a Plumm on us, it must be Ned a Stark to make. He would have met Ashara in secret right before the wedding... or quite a while later. Not impossible, but rather difficult and ... improbable.

Wylla is afawk not highborn, so her baby is out of the mix.

Fantasy mantra: There would be no need to hide Ashara as a possible mother, if no highborn claimant to the throne was to be hidden, and there needs to be at least one secret heir in the story.

[Ygrain]

A bit off-topic, but given Varys' potential involvement in the Rebellion, possibly meaningful for R+L, as well: http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/106023-varys-historically-influenced-by-zhao-gao/

[MtnLion]

You mean Aemond?

He didn't have any King's guard protection either.

Oh, and The Lord Commander knew that King Aegon had fled King's Landing, he thought he knew where the king was going, but he thought it more important to lead troops into battle than look for the king:

The Lord Commander of the Kingsguard was with Aemond.

[MtnLion]

I think the wiki means that the symptoms start after about 3 days, in historical view, and today within the first 10 days after birth. This difference will most likely be because of the differences in hygene during the birth and during treatment after birth, and the intruments that are used during the birth itself.

I did much more reading about puerperal fever than just the wikis. ;)

[JNR]

I don't see any new thoughts in your angle.

I see several in yours... for instance:

Lyanna being held against her will is intriguing in how it could be accomplished without noticeable wounds.

Are you seriously suggesting Rhaegar, Whent, and the Sword of the Morning could not possibly succeed in abducting an individual without being wounded?

Really?

Or that if any sort of wound had occurred at that time and place, you would have some way to know?

(I sometimes get the impression of that, reading this thread -- that regular contributors believe they were there the day Lyanna vanished, and know every tiny detail of everybody involved, for then and for months afterward.)

Remember that she mentored the future First Ranger of the Night's Watch?

Actually, no... no, I don't...

I remember Bran had a vision in which on one occasion, Lyanna beat her prepubescent younger brother in a child's swordfight.

Is that what you're calling... mentoring?

[Alia of the knife]

I agree. The Old Kings of Winter knows that Jon isn't one of them, yet he shares their blood. And the dragon bones of the Red Keep may possibly call out to Jon, the Ice Dragon.

:agree:

In at least one of the Winterfell dreams the Deaf Kings of Winter scream you don't belong here

and in at least one other Jon does the screaming "I don't belong here".

There is another much simpler explanation that's also quite useful, saying: "You are not dead, Jon", which is useful at the time and may be extrapolated to "You don't belong with the dead" which may work nicely should Jon be actually dying by the end of ADwD.

Thats a great catch and certainly seems in line with Martins play on words.

[Alia of the knife]

A bit off-topic, but given Varys' potential involvement in the Rebellion, possibly meaningful for R+L, as well: http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/106023-varys-historically-influenced-by-zhao-gao/

Thats a great parallel, and Varys is interesting because as a "true believer," he can honestly say that destroying the current kingdom under both the Targaryens and Berantheon/Lannister, that he does it because he cares about the "good" of the realm.

I don't think that he that what he is doing is wrong, and I think he actually liked Ned for his honor and honesty, but thought he was woefully out of his element, which he was.

[Fred of Ashai]

The Lord Commander of the Kingsguard was with Aemond.

Look again. Aemond stayed in the Riverlands, alone, while Cole marched south with the army. I provided you with the quote.

I think you are the only one who still believes that one King's guard has to be with the king at all times.

[Chebyshov]

But those two children would be more than a year apart in age... While such a thing would not create any troubles for Ashara, Catelyn would notice the difference between a child of half a year old and a child of 2 years old...

.

Agreed. Also if Jon wasn't a secret targ then that would've just told Cat the truth. He could've said "this is really my brothers baby but I want to raise him as our own." Cat would have understood and been a lot more pleasant in general I suspect. I can see Ned lying to protect his family's honor from most people, but it doesn't make sense to leave his wife in the dark if was the case.

I don't see why R+L=J needs to explain every mystery that happens in Westeros. Yeah I bet there's a lot more that happened with Ashara than what's presented, but there can be more than one unknown event. Ashara's "mysterious "death (though I think it's definitely plausible because of her grief) is intriguing, but does not negate the overwhelming evidence for R+L.

[Julia Martell]

Agreed. Also if Jon wasn't a secret targ then that would've just told Cat the truth. He could've said "this is really my brothers baby but I want to raise him as our own." Cat would have understood and been a lot more pleasant in general I suspect. I can see Ned lying to protect his family's honor from most people, but it doesn't make sense to leave his wife in the dark if was the case.

:agree: He had to have had a DAMN good reason for not telling Catlyn, considering it was, like, the one bit of conflict in their absurdly happy arranged marriage.

[Fred of Ashai]

What's in the thread's title?

For the thought on Ashara's possible baby:

Assumption 1: Ashara and Brandon at the Tourney at Harrenhall: the baby will be months older than Aegon Targaryen (born 4-8 weeks earlier and than lived a few weeks longer) at the time Ned arrives at the Tower of Joy, so that's maybe 15 months, but definitely more than a year older than Jon.

Assumption 2: Ashara and Brandon-or-Ned nine months before the Tower of Joy. Nine months before the Tower of Joy is the wedding of Cat and Ned. At that time, Brandon is more than 5 months dead. Unless he pulled a Plumm on us, it must be Ned a Stark to make. He would have met Ashara in secret right before the wedding... or quite a while later. Not impossible, but rather difficult and ... improbable.

Wylla is afawk not highborn, so her baby is out of the mix.

Fantasy mantra: There would be no need to hide Ashara as a possible mother, if no highborn claimant to the throne was to be hidden, and there needs to be at least one secret heir in the story.

The sequence is: Ashara gets dishonored at Harrenhal, then she looks to Stark and she is not nailed to the floor at Starfall during the rebellion, then she gets a visit from Ned at Starfall, then she disappears. Some time between the tournament at Harrenhal and her disappearance, she gets pregnant and either has a baby or a stillbirth. The only thing we know about the timing of her pregnancy is that she disappears "soon after" the birth/stillbirth.

So I don't think she got pregnant during the tournament. She got pregnant during the rebellion. Since we know that Ned was in the Vale, Winterfell, Dorne, and the Riverlands during the rebellion, and Ashara wasn't at Starfall during the entirety of the rebellion, there were plenty of opportunities for her to meet up with Ned -- who was smitten with her and about to be forced into a marriage he did not want.

[Harlaw's Book the Sequel]

Since Ashara is being brought up, could someone refresh my memory on what Harwin tells Arya about it? IIRC, Harwin says there is no stain on Ned's honor because neither Ned or Ashara were promised at the time. However, does Harwin say whether there is (isn't) a stain on Ashara's honor?

Also thanks for the positive comments when I posted about Lyanna's connection with weirwoods few threads back. And please accept my apology for not expressing my gratitude sooner.