R+L=J v.76

[Winds of Winter blow cold]

If there is everything to gain and nothing to lose take the bet... If there is nothing to be gained and anything to be lost do not,

I am wondering just how far predictions and speculation would get if they were tied to a credibility or accuracy meter?

With the forthcoming release of WoW, it just might be possible to do exactly that,

In short now seems a good time to place a bet...

R plus L equals J

Jon is legitimate---without the how

Now for some bolder bets

Jon was born after the showdown at the ToJ

Ned's promise was to raise Jon as a son---Not to protect him from Robert

The vow Gerold explained was a vow to Rhaegar

Most likely both.

[The guy from the Vale]

Good find. :blushing: How would you explain the historical examples that talk about the mothers dying more than a week afterwards?

And also, what do you mean by acute? Surely not just hours after birth.

I think the best explanation is that the incubation time is about three days, while the actual fever kills within a week, give or take a few days. Combined, you get the 10 days.

[FrozenFire3]

Hey Frozen sense your following this stuff so closely, I was wondering if you had any idea about the 4th trailer. It's over in the winds section, and I was wondering who the woman was after the shot of the 3 fires? I asked over there but they are all talking about a boat, swear to god I don't know what is up with boats, and chess pieces today.

You mean this trailer? Soon after the shot of the three fires I see Melisandre, closing her eyes in full r'holloring mode ;)

Eh, you noted that. I just put my spin on it ;)

I did indeed. And I like the way your brain cells spin LOL My geek of a daughter put an additional spin on the scene, drawing a parallel with Rhaegar/AA (red flower) 'poisoning' with his love Lyanna/Nissa and Lyanna (blue/dust rose) healing with her love (sacrifice) both Rhaegar (his sadness and related prophetic anxiety ==>Tower of Joy) and mankind all (via Lightbringer/Jon).

[MtnLion]

I am sure many people fought and killed others who were their friends or peers during the war. That does not mean they thought less of the ones they had to kill. Enemies can still honor one another, especially when they found them honorable before they were enemies. I don't believe Lya was the KotLT. I think it was Ned. But the KotLT was never found by Rhaegar so was never revealed. Even Meera and Jojen do not seem to know or agree on the identity. Anyway that has nothing to do with Lyanna being forced into something. The KG would not let Lyanna be approached by Ned.

Ned said that they were a shining example for the rest of the world, and the greatest among them was Dayne.

Small in stature with mismatched armor. Someone that doesn't have their own armor. Benjen likely had his own armor, as did Ned and Brandon. Meera and Jojen agree when one says something true. One said it might be the Crannogman, the other denied it. Likely not the Crannogman, if not for their statements, then for the fact that he is not skilled at riding a horse.

Why is it important for Ned to remember "We are Kingsguard" and "We swore a vow" without documenting the vow? The answer is quite simple, it is the Kingsguard's vow. If it had been any other vow, Ned would need to remember what they pledged in his dream. No, they are not staying because the king ordered them to follow Rhaegar's orders. That would be true of Dayne and Whent, but not Hightower. Hightower is very important, and his insistence on strict observance of protocol is pretty historical in the books. The primary purpose of the Kingsguard is mentioned in several places, and that is to protect and defend the king. There are many notes of the white cloaked ghost standing near the king, ready to protect him. There is only one answer, these three are guarding a king at the tower, and they are quite aware that they are caught in enemy territory with no way to move him without revealing him.

Aside, Ygrain is accurate, there are disbelievers that will do nothing but deny, and there is a short list of arguments that they repeatedly use. We should just go cut and paste earlier circular arguments and their answers.

[MtnLion]

I think the best explanation is that the incubation time is about three days, while the actual fever kills within a week, give or take a few days. Combined, you get the 10 days.

:agree: The fever starts about three days postpartum, and runs its course in 5 to 10 days postpartum.

[Alia of the knife]

You mean this trailer? Soon after the shot of the three fires I see Melisandre, closing her eyes in full r'holloring mode ;)

I did indeed. And I like the way your brain cells spin LOL My geek of a daughter put an additional spin on the scene, drawing a parallel with Rhaegar/AA (red flower) 'poisoning' with his love Lyanna/Nissa and Lyanna (blue/dust rose) healing with her love (sacrifice) both Rhaegar (his sadness and related prophetic anxiety ==>Tower of Joy) and mankind all (via Lightbringer/Jon).

Beautiful analysis, and the daughter is just as brilliant as the mother. :)

[Ser Creighton]

You mean this trailer? Soon after the shot of the three fires I see Melisandre, closing her eyes in full r'holloring mode ;)

I did indeed. And I like the way your brain cells spin LOL My geek of a daughter put an additional spin on the scene, drawing a parallel with Rhaegar/AA (red flower) 'poisoning' with his love Lyanna/Nissa and Lyanna (blue/dust rose) healing with her love (sacrifice) both Rhaegar (his sadness and related prophetic anxiety ==>Tower of Joy) and mankind all (via Lightbringer/Jon).

So that is her, ok. I could not tell, she actually looks a little better there than normal, not so pale and her skin is all nice and shinny looking, she looked younger to me and you can't see that awful hair.

[FrozenFire3]

GRRM on Rhaegar's rubies:

If you’ve watched the first season DVDs, there are the auditions scenes from both Maisie Williams and Sophie Turner, one is about Rhaegar’s rubies, at the ruby ford. And they were both great in that, as auditions. I was shocked when the scene wasn’t actually in the show, because it was a beautiful scene between the two girls. It established their character, and also established a little bit of history about Rhaegar.

Source

[Fred of Ashai]

You have put your finger on the central problem with the R+L=J theory: it does not account for hot pigeon pie being served at Joffrey's wedding!

The best explanation for serving hot pigeon pie at the wedding was that there were pigeons available in King's Landing, but all those pigeons were exported and other pigeons were imported from Braavos.

Joffrey's wedding had nothing to do with the Tower of Joy. Ashara's disappearance did. Ned's journey from the Tower of Joy to Starfall was the direct trigger for Ashara's disappearance.

[Fred of Ashai]

Ned said that they were a shining example for the rest of the world, and the greatest among them was Dayne.

Small in stature with mismatched armor. Someone that doesn't have their own armor. Benjen likely had his own armor, as did Ned and Brandon. Meera and Jojen agree when one says something true. One said it might be the Crannogman, the other denied it. Likely not the Crannogman, if not for their statements, then for the fact that he is not skilled at riding a horse.

Why is it important for Ned to remember "We are Kingsguard" and "We swore a vow" without documenting the vow? The answer is quite simple, it is the Kingsguard's vow. If it had been any other vow, Ned would need to remember what they pledged in his dream. No, they are not staying because the king ordered them to follow Rhaegar's orders. That would be true of Dayne and Whent, but not Hightower. Hightower is very important, and his insistence on strict observance of protocol is pretty historical in the books. The primary purpose of the Kingsguard is mentioned in several places, and that is to protect and defend the king. There are many notes of the white cloaked ghost standing near the king, ready to protect him. There is only one answer, these three are guarding a king at the tower, and they are quite aware that they are caught in enemy territory with no way to move him without revealing him.

Aside, Ygrain is accurate, there are disbelievers that will do nothing but deny, and there is a short list of arguments that they repeatedly use. We should just go cut and paste earlier circular arguments and their answers.

If Ned knew the King's guards vow, and it means what you say it means (they have to be with the king), why did he look for them at Storm's End? Did he think they had abandoned Viserys and Rhaella so they could crown Mace Tyrell?

[Ygrain]

Why is it important for Ned to remember "We are Kingsguard" and "We swore a vow" without documenting the vow? The answer is quite simple, it is the Kingsguard's vow. If it had been any other vow, Ned would need to remember what they pledged in his dream. No, they are not staying because the king ordered them to follow Rhaegar's orders. That would be true of Dayne and Whent, but not Hightower. Hightower is very important, and his insistence on strict observance of protocol is pretty historical in the books. The primary purpose of the Kingsguard is mentioned in several places, and that is to protect and defend the king. There are many notes of the white cloaked ghost standing near the king, ready to protect him. There is only one answer, these three are guarding a king at the tower, and they are quite aware that they are caught in enemy territory with no way to move him without revealing him.

Ah, my favourite part about how they keep proclaiming proudly that they are Kingsguard but are staying at ToJ because of a vow that actually prevents them from fulfilling their Kingsguard duties :-) Really, no R+L thread can be complete without this argument :D

[Julia Martell]

Okay, another n00b question.

How does the coup that Rhaegar apparently had in the works at the time of his death figure into all of this? Especially as it regard the presence of Kingsguard at the Tower of Joy.

[Ser Leftwich]

Joffrey's wedding had nothing to do with the Tower of Joy. Ashara's disappearance did. Ned's journey from the Tower of Joy to Starfall was the direct trigger for Ashara's disappearance.

Ned just having killed Ashara's beloved brother is a perfectly reasonable excuse for her to have thrown herself from a tower into the sea.

I am questioning, with sarcasm, your use of the word "best" to create an overly elaborate, and very difficult to pull off, scenario for which there are more simple explanations.

Also, it is just wrong to say that R=L=J does not explain Ashara's disappearance, it does, she threw herself from a tower into the sea. You are free to not subscribe to that theory, but you cannot say that it does not answer it.

It may just not answer it to your satisfaction or adhere to your course of logic of how the events played out; which is different than "not explaining Ashara's disappearance."

[Lyse Stark]

Ah, my favourite part about how they keep proclaiming proudly that they are Kingsguard but are staying at ToJ because of a vow that actually prevents them from fulfilling their Kingsguard duties :-) Really, no R+L thread can be complete without this argument :D

I agree. The fact that the kingsguard's is at the ToJ only means in my eyes that Jon is legitimate. The fact is that when Ned took him in, he forced the life of a bastard upon the boy in order to protect him from Robert and Tywin.

[Ygrain]

Okay, another n00b question.

How does the coup that Rhaegar apparently had in the works at the time of his death figure into all of this? Especially as it regard the presence of Kingsguard at the Tower of Joy.

Not much to build on here, IMHO. I've always argued that one of the reasons why Rhaegar wanted the KG stay at ToJ was to keep them (especially Hightower) from meddling in his coup, and/or prevent their friendship from clashing with their vows.

[Ygrain]

I agree. The fact that the kingsguard's is at the ToJ only means in my eyes that Jon is legitimate. The fact is that when Ned took him in, he forced the life of a bastard upon the boy in order to protect him from Robert and Tywin.

The same here. If Jon was not king, then there is no way those three might be keeping their KG vows. They would be oathbreakers, and Ned would never consider them shining examples of Kingsguard. The fact that he does means that they died fulfilling their sworn duty, and that is only possible if their king was at ToJ.

[Alia of the knife]

Not much to build on here, IMHO. I've always argued that one of the reasons why Rhaegar wanted the KG stay at ToJ was to keep them (especially Hightower) from meddling in his coup, and/or prevent their friendship from clashing with their vows.

Agreed.

[DragonDreamer]

As Ygrain said, we are here to help you with any doubt and/or curiosity you have about the theory. No need to feel :dunce: , promise us LOL

On a a side note, theguyfromtheVale mentioned at the end of v.75 some interesting bit about episode 1, blue roses and flowers meanings. Here is the full report:

He [Daario] brings her flowers. I was happy to see that she doesn't swoon over this, instead she is playfully hostile and continues to threaten him with worse placement in the caravan. It's a cute scene. He presents her with three flowers. One is a blue rose, which raised my eyebrow. I think he calls it a dust rose. There's a red flower, and something like baby's breath. He explains that she needs to listen to her people and realize they know their world better than she does. What she dismissed as pretty flowers have uses. I think the blue rose has healing properties and the baby's breathe may have been a poison. Either way, two of the flowers are useful and everyone from the area grows up knowing these things. He tells Dany she needs to learn from them and recognize their strengths to be a good leader. Then he tells her the third flower is just pretty and gives them to her as a rough bouquet. He leaves. She's left considering his words and has a little bit of a sparkle in her eye.

Source

Very interesting

Perhaps this is the shows way of introducing the "a blue flower grew out of a chink of ice filling the

air with sweetness" from the HOTU visions. Whoever or whatever the blue flower is (Jon) it'll be a source of happiness {healing?) for Dany.

[Lyse Stark]

Very interesting

Perhaps this is the shows way of introducing the "a blue flower grew out of a chink of ice filling the

air with sweetness" from the HOTU visions. Whoever or whatever the blue flower is (Jon) it'll be a source of happiness {healing?) for Dany.

Or she will die peacefully at the Wall, her mental and emotional wounds healed.

[The guy from the Vale]

Okay, another n00b question.

How does the coup that Rhaegar apparently had in the works at the time of his death figure into all of this? Especially as it regard the presence of Kingsguard at the Tower of Joy.

We really have no idea to be honest. One crackpot attempt to tie it all up in a nice bundle that we hatched in this series of threads was the theory that Rhaegar and Rickard were allies.