[TWOW SPOILERS] Theon I, part vi

[The Wight]

Yoren was chewing sourleaf. “Told you, no one here but us. You got my word on that.”

The knight in the spiked helm laughed. “The crow gives us his word.”

Fine!, got me there... But Stannis? Seriously? Or Ramsey? No skin in the letter? No body part? Heads on spikes??? Ramsey? Since when???

[Fuzy_gsxr1000]

Wow some very interesting theories here. I really can't wait to read TWOW!!

[TeamParks]

I'm gonna list some key lines from the chapter and try my best to explain how they prove Ramsey wrote the letter:

Obviously the implication here is that Maester Tybald has 3 ravens that fly exclusively to Winterfell and has been using them to betray Stannis' location to the Boltons.

Yes, leave the ravens that only fly to Winterfell, as detailed earlier in this exchange. But why?

Also meaning, it may be false. But why would Massey receive false news of Stannis' death? Well:

The Pink Letter claims that Stannis is dead. It also claims there was a 7 day long battle. Odd that GRRM decided to include detailing the length of the battle. Why is it important for the reader to know? Well, after Roose Bolton get's Tybald's last message, he says:

3 days for the Freys/Manderys to arrive at The Gift, 1 day of a farce of a battle (Manderly's drive the Freys into the frozen lake - more on this later) and to plot on how to prevent Ramsey from following into battle and discovering their ploy (see Dreadfort ravens explanation above), and another 3 days for Stannis' host to reach Winterfell. 3 + 3 + 1 =

How do I know the frozen lake will play a part in the doom of the Freys? Well, from Theon we know:

And Roose Bolton orders this:

Then we have this piece of information, when Stannis asks Theon if boys killed Aenys Frey. Theon answers:

What's Stannis smiling about? He's been given an idea, which he begins to explain here:

Then the ravens, who I assume are Bloodraven or Bran, begin to hint at the plan as well:

And where is the tree? Well, later in the chapter, Asha says:

Aaaand the ravens go bananas.

As far as the heads on the Winterfell walls go, seems fishy *wink wink*. Perhaps we now know the significance of why GRRM had the Manderlys mount "Davos" head on their walls. Fake head mounting seems their style, certainly, and that "evidence" would help the Manderlys' story once they returned to Winterfell to deceive the Boltons and spread word that Stannis was just outside the walls (invisible behind the snow).

All these little "truths" sprinkled throughout the Pink Letter are given substantial support from this chapter, and for me solidifies that Ramsay did indeed write the Pink Letter, just under false pretenses,

Also, consider this:

The parchment is a letter from Jon explaining Arnolf's treachery.

Here we see Stannis ordering Justin Massey to drop "Arya" off at Castle Black before heading off to Eastwatch because, as he explains, "A true king pays his debts."

He felt, even if it was to the most minuscule degree, indebted to Jon. What could possibly be the reason for sending "Arya" to Jon at Castle Black, then turning around and sending a raven (which would undoubtedly travel faster than Massey's company) to Castle Black with a deceptive message? If it was to draw Jon out, why send "Arya" to Castle Black in the first place? If Stannis truly believes he's a "true king", why would he pay his debt with deception? It makes no sense.

This is the best theory on the Pink Letter I have seen. Well done. Do you have an explanation for how / why Stannis coordinates with Manderly in defeating the Frey host. As far as we know Stannis doesn't trust Manderly right?

[Ladywhiskers]

Asha was told about the ways of the north and Eddard Stark by Balon,

But I don't think Balon knows about the ways of the north any more than Asha would. The Ironborn do not study other cultures, nor do they learn anything at all about their enemies other than their locations and whether or not they have something worth plundering.

I think the knight in the spiked helmet is Mance.

[14ccKemistk]

I have to agree here.

I think Bran's "No, don't" is foreshadowing what will happen when Theon is put in, more or less, the same position. The difference, and reason why we can see a foreshadow, is that Bran will actually now be able to communicate his disagreements in the present, as he was unable to do so in his visions of the past.

As much as I like your Pink letter theory, I find a weak spot that if solved, would convince me completely:

By the end of the Theon chapter, Stannis does still not know anything of Manderleys deal with Davos and that they are allies. How could he hope to enter Winterfell without Manderleys help to deceive the Boltons and opening the gates from within?

The only satisfactory solution that I can come up with is that we'll have to have another chapter were we see Stannis getting the Manderly-is-an-ally message from someome (who?) whereafter we might even see him writing the fake death letter to Ramsay.

[Ser Dragon]

Theon says in this chapter " "Frey and Manderly will never combine their strengths. They will come for you, but separately. Lord Ramsay will not be far behind them. He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek."

What oddly specific phrasing

"I want my bride back. I want the false king's queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want this wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek."

Could just be a coincidence, but could it be evidence in favour of Stannis writing the letter, or even Theon, if "Bael" revealed his identity during their chat?

Indeed, exactly like in the pink letter.

[queenrhaenys]

The Children carved the faces to awaken the trees.

I don't know where this empowering by blood sacrifice idea comes from..There is absolutely no evidence of that . Bran sees an ancient sacrifice, to which he spontaneously says "No, don't" ..and he says it while connected to the "weirnet" . If he could taste the blood , don't you think he could sense the sentiments of all the other greenseers ? He shares Summer's senses and emotions while warging.

Right at the beginning of AGoT , he learns not to look away ; to be impassive when watching the king's justice being done by Ned. If the sacrifice was the old gods' justice or something demanded or needed or desired by them , I think Bran would sense it . I think he would get a sudden sense of power from it ,if it empowered the tree.

ETA: But Bran's "power" is in his own blood. That's what makes him a warg and ( even more rare) a greenseer. The same is true for all the other greenseers and I would bet the same is true for the trees .

So, there probably is power in some kings' blood. Blood magic works because magic is real ... but I don't think the trees/old gods want or need blood sacrifice.

I would think the same. If the old gods needs blood sacrifice, Bran should have felt the power...well maybe he did, but he's just preoccupied/distracted with whoever was the blood sacrifice he witnessed.

[Flayer]

I have two things to bring up. I'm sorry if they are repeats I have skimmed but not scoured vol. i-v of this thread:

How did Theon recognize Stannis's voice? On the first page: "He knew that voice. Stannis." When did Theon Greyjoy and Stannis Baratheon meet? Am I missing something obvious here?

Is there an error?: Stannis did not reply at once. He studied the man before him, his brow furrowed. "Get up." The maester rose. "You are maester at the Dreadfort. How is it you are here with us?"

"Lord Arnolf brought me to tend to his wounded."

How does this make sense? If Tybald was maester at the Dreadfort, why would Arnolf Karstark have brought him? Then again:

"Answer me. If we were to loose these birds, would they return to the Dreadfort?" The king leaned forward. "Or might they fly for Winterfell instead?"

Why would a Karstark raven fly to the Dreadfort if the Karstarks were about to join battle against the Boltons? To send them a pre-battle greeting? Did GRRM mean to write Karhold in both instances? This part always confused me and this may be why...or I'm missing something...help?

Stannis was probley there when King Balon bent the knee after the first rebellion so Theon would have seen Stannis

[Endymion I Targaryen]

Perhaps Bran wants Theon to be sent to the Wall , not executed. He may have no love for Theon , but Theon could tell Jon , personally, what actually happened at WF.. without the news of Bran's and Rickon's survival and Ramsay's betrayal becoming common knowledge before it's convenient for Manderly and the GNC. .. and there would be a bonus in terms of the practicalities of defending the wall : Jon could definitely use another expert archery instructor. ...And wouldn't Jon's acceptance of Theon be the ultimate demonstration to wildling hold-outs ( e.g. those who've been following the Weeper) that past transgressions are forgotten if you join the NW or abide by the terms of Tormund and Jon's agreement ?

Stannis has begun, on this campaign, to hold off on the destruction of weirwoods for political reasons (he wants the support of the clans) ..but over time Stannis has become gradually more open to supernatural possibilities. At first he believed nothing of Melisandre's claims , but that changed , partially due to the fact that he began to see his own visions in the flames, at least one that proved true ( the Fist ) . If Bran should manage some sort of demonstration at the Tree .. Stannis would not discount it entirely , and would continue to force his men to respect the sanctity of the weirwoods.

Once Stannis decides to go to the tree , it only makes sense that he would have Tycho's party wait, so that they could report to Jon on what happened. ( At that point he would not know he had a raven to send and would plan for Tycho's party to bear news of Theon's execution.)

I think something will happen to convince Stannis that one of the ravens could possibly fly to Castle Black. And so , though I think Bowen &co. will alter the letter before Jon sees it , I think Stannis is the one who originally wrote it... I don't want to go into all the letter arguments here (they're lengthy) .. I'm just asking - be open to the possibility.

I believe the letter is correct ,and that after the events at the Tree , Theon is sent north with Jeyne and Tycho.

I was thinking the same.Theon will head to the Wall along with Jeyne Poole (at least).If Manderly comes to Stannis's side he must tell him about Davos and his mission so Theon can stay alive for a while so as the truth about Stark children be revealed.But other Northmen hate him so he can't stay in Winterfell.And I too believe his execution will be stopped by Bran.

[Quentyn Kartell]

I was thinking the same.Theon will head to the Wall along with Jeyne Poole (at least).If Manderly comes to Stannis's side he must tell him about Davos and his mission so Theon can stay alive for a while so as the truth about Stark children be revealed.But other Northmen hate him so he can't stay in Winterfell.And I too believe his execution will be stopped by Bran.

Theon will most likely be sent to the wall with fArya. Stannis says he always pays his debt. So giving Theon to Jon will be sort of a bonus. This way Jon can do the deed and take the heat, and Stannis still has Asha as leverage against the iron isle.

[TheWeepingMan]

I find it makes an interesting viewpoint to think the character from their ends: How are they going to die? - Because in fiction, the death of a character often gives its live ("life") significance, meaning or relevance.

How is Theon going to die?

Assuming that Jon Snow does not actually die:

I'd guess that Theon gets executed by Jon, as Jon finds out about Theon's former betrayal. There's hardly a way Jon could forgive Theon, even though he has already suffered that badly. - This way, the entire Theon-Storyline would be ultimately about Jon, as he is forced to make a morally complicated, if not impossible decision. And it fits well the overall idea in ASOIAF that redemption and punishment are fleeting, if not futile.

[memeka]

Pobeb's theory is the best I've seen about the Pink Letter.

Let me add a few things:

* The pink letter says that all of Stannis' army was smashed. Stannis had much more knowledge about the events than Bolton. Bolton got a map with Stannis' camp, but he knows that and will adapt accordingly. Stannis knows the Karstarks were supposed to betray him and disabled them. He also knows that the Freys and Manderlys are coming. While per total, Bolton's army is greater, it's safe to assume the Frey + Manderly army is about half of that ... let's say a total of 3,000 ? Do we actually have numbers about Stannis? Remember that hundreds (I will use 1,000) from his army was supposed to turn cloak - so the Frey + Manderly + Karstark army would be let's say 4,000, while assuming Stannis had 5,000 initial - he would be left with 4,000. So how would the Frey army *smash* Stannis? Even from the Bolton perspective, it would be an even fight, with them having the element of surprise (the karstarks) + having information about how they were deployed, but relatively equal numbers. So "Ramsey following" would be to "finish off" the few survivors, in case Stannis won. But I think he never intended to follow. Why would he? Winterfall was full - so sending the Freys and Manderlys would result in: less overcrowding, less trouble, less of Stannis after the fighting. Why then risk and get out when the weather is so bad? They can just wait them out. Roose knows he's safe in Winterfell, and Ramsay is no fool. Thus, I think Ramsey never indented to follow in battle.

* From the above + the sample chapter I think it clear that:

1. Stannis easily wins the battle, especially since the Manderlys will attack second, so the Freys are virtually surrounded. If indeed he will use the lake, then he will probably have virtually no casualties. If there will be a battle, there will be a Frey massacre, with probably tens of casualties for the combined Manderly + Stannis armies.

2. Even with no casualties, and the addition of Manderly - 5,000 - 1,000 karstarks + 1,500 manderly = 5,500 vs almost 4,000 (>6,000 - 3,000) - there is NO chance he can take Winterfell.

So obviously, there must be trickery involved! It's clear that Tybald's ravens go to Winterfell, and Stannis kept them with intent to use them. How else but to send fake messages to the Boltons?

Now, Ramsay said the battle was 7 days. This means the letter was sent at least 10 days after the Frey/Manderly army was dispatched. 3 days road + 7 days battle + raven.

If he indeed has heads on the wall, and Lightbringer, this means that the letter was sent at least 13 days after: 3 days road + 7 days battle + 3 days road back.

Another possibility is that Stannis won the battle, then attacked Winterfell and lost. This is very unlikely:

1. this places the events way further on timeline: 3 days road + battle 1-2 days at least + recovery and raise camp 1-2 days + 3 days road to winterfell + 7 days battle at winterfell = around 17 days - by that time fArya would have arrived at Castle Black;

2. He says he has Lightbringer, and his mens heads, but not Stannis's head. How would he have Lightbringer but not Stannis's head? So either he doesn't have Lightbringer (but was fed the information it was captured), or indeed he has the sword, from the Manderlys that came back - as a ruse to have the doors opened.

3. Stannis would have either Theon with him, or have him already executed - in both cases Ramsay would have known Reek's fate. He is looking for Reek at the wall, so this must be more fake information he was fed.

4. GRRM said there will be 2 fights. One it's in Mereen, we've seen chapters. Second must be The Battle by the Lake . I think he would have mentioned a third battle (of Winterfell) if that was the case.

The clues point to Stannis faking his death (from the discussion with Justin Massey) to trick the Boltons. Also, I find it very likely that the Boltons have Lightbringer as part of that ruse.

Here's how I think things went down:

1. Freys attack. Very possible they are on that lake - it's the obvious "natural defence" Stannis can make use of. Manderly attacks them from behind. Very few losses for Manderly + Stannis.

2. Theon is taken to the tree to be beheaded. I think it's clear to Asha that Theon is a broken man - both mentally and physically. She cannot use him for the kingsmoot, nobody would follow him. He is clearly in a lot of pain. And Stannis was clear that he will be executed, that nothing could save him. She is a prisoner herself, more or less. So either he will die in pain from his wounds/treatment (being hung 6 feet up) wwaiting execution, or he will be burnt alive. It's even possible Stannis intends to burn him alive before the fight, a sacrifice to have the red god on their side in the fight. (So then move this before the above.) Knowing this, Asha insists on the beheading, to save him the suffering. We've seen through Theon how Asha looks at him, clearly she just want him put out of his misery.

2'. At the tree, don't expect super display of Bran magic. There would be probably a few words heard, either from the tree or from the crows, words which would make Theon confess about the miller boys. (if the execution is before the fight, this will be enough for Stannis to postpone the execution to get more information). Theon is no kinslayer, but still turncloack. Maybe he's got even more information. Execution postponed. More input data required.

3. Surprisingly (for Stannis), Manderly killed the Freys. Discussion ensues. Wyman tells a wild story about Davos being sent to fetch Rickon from Skagos. No, it was not his head. Oh, you think my idea of deception with fake head on a spike was cool? Yes, I will let you use it against the Boltons too. Stannis also verifies from 2 sources that Rickon is alive. This means Theon was right, which means Bran might be alive too. His problems with who inherits Winterfell are also over. Northmen will fight more vigorously now knowing Starks are about. Maybe even Davos and Rickon show up for further motivation (unlikely... but not VERY unlikely - Davos + Osha + Rickon can travel quick: Osha has experience with travelling fast in snow, she knows what a warg is and maybe figures out Rickon is one, and then Shaggydog is used for reconnaissance and Shaggydog finds Stannis's camp)

4. Planning ensues for a few days. Camp is going to be left behind. Karstark sends raven message that battle was won. Manderly messenger is send ahead with news of victory, Lightbringer, and a few heads. Maybe even a few of some of Stannis's knights that died in battle. A few Stannis men dress up as Freys. The remains of Manderly + Frey army will be a few days behind, after tending the wounded.

5. Messenger arrives full of lies/sword/heads. Ramsay sends the Pink Letter.

6. Couple of days later, Frey + Manderly soldiers are at the gate. Gate opens. Boltons are game over. I don't even think there will be a fight, since Stannis will have opened doors and more men, and the element of surprise.

Like said previously by many: Stannis is thankful to Jon for his letter, he would never send a fake letter. By GRRM, timing of the letter is after the battle. And Asha - what would she gain by having a few Nights Watch men coming to attack Stannis in Winterfell after 2-3 weeks? Their scouts would see it's Stannis, then have a warm cup of wine together, so... ?

PS: sorry for length and if my writing is hard to comprehend :D I hope you do get my reasoning tho.

Edited October 30, 2014 by memeka

[ImpinDornish]

This is my first post and won't go making an ass of myself just yet, but I will say I like the Stannis theory the best as the person who wrote the pink letter. Stannis understands war and deception better than anyone. Mance doesn't make sense - far too many holes which have been covered previously (how'd he get ink, quill, forge a signature, etc etc). Ramsay kind of makes sense, but there'd likely be a body part or flesh accompanying the letter to drive his point home. Stannis probably wouldn't think that dark to create a deception due to his honour and just nature.

Stannis writing it makes sense. It serves him best. But then does Stannis' plan get ruined because Jon gets stabbed? Maybe that's for another thread.

But you know what I love about this chapter? How murky it is! It raises SO many questions and answers bugger all. What a great sample chapter to keep tongues wagging. TWOW can't come soon enough.

[Kingmonkey]

(SNIP!)

PS: sorry for length and if my writing is hard to comprehend :D I hope you do get my reasoning tho.

This is very much my guess, though I can add a couple of thoughts.

Firstly, I think these numbers are a bit more precise:

Stannis: 1000+ (<1500 at the wall, some left at the wall, some died en route). A few dozen horses left.

Northern hill tribes: 3000ish assorted foot.

Karstark men: 400 spears, 40ish archers, a dozen horse.

Others: 500+ assorted Mormont, Hornwood, Cerwyn, Tallhart, random.

Total: Around 5000 (Stannis' letter to Jon)

Freys: At most 1500 foot, 500 cavalry

Manderly: 300 cavalry

With the expected Karstark betrayal, that makes by Roose's count 1940 foot and 812 horse against >4500 foot. Even with the advantage of the Karstark betrayal and the poor state of Stannis' army, Roose can't be expecting that to be an easy fight for the force he sent. Theon expects Ramsay to be following along behind, presumably to mop up after Stannis and the Freys & Manderlys have weakened each other considerably.

What's left at Winterfell? I don't think we can do better than 2500-4000 Bolton men and unknown others. Theon says there are more men at Winterfell than Stannis has, but that might include the Frey forces.

A third force? Manderly seems to be making a play, with very few men at hand. There may be another Manderly force in the area.

So if the Freys fall into the ice lake trap, and are charged from behind by the Manderly men (possibly including another hidden Manderly army), we could see the Frey forces slaughtered with little loss to Stannis, and Stannis could find himself with some new options.

Stannis gets the maester to send a raven to Winterfell, claiming that Stannis has been defeated and requesting more men to help mop up. This brings more men out of Winterfell, splitting the Bolton forces further. What's more, this might bring Roose out rather than Ramsey. With the belief that things are now pretty secure, Roose might want the glory. With the real battle believed over, some of the other Northern lords might start leaving, and there would be less tension at Winterfell, so Ramsay might be trusted to run things for a few days.

This would leave Ramsay in charge at Winterfell, less cautious than Roose. Under strict orders from dad to reign in his flaying instincts while there are other northern lords present, we've got the perfect situation for an angry Ramsay to write the Pink Letter in the form we see it. We also have the pieces in place for Stannis to make a plan for taking Winterfell that would set up the contents of the Pink Letter nicely.

Step 1. Surviving Frey, Karstark and Manderly forces return to Winterfell, bringing lightbringer as proof of the victory, and a bunch of heads. The Freys are in fact Stannis' men dressed up in Frey gear. We now have Winterfell held by perhaps 1000 Bolton men, 1000 northerners of dubious loyalty, and 1000 men secretly on the other side.

(Stir-crazy Ramsay, frustrated at not being allowed to flay Mance in front of the northern lords and wound up by Crowfood's men outside, learns from the returning fake Freys that Stannis sent "Arya" to the wall, blows a fuse and writes the Pink Letter while frothing at the mouth).

Step 2. Stannis' men on the inside plan to open the doors to Stannis' army. 4000ish on Stannis' side, 1000 Bolton men, and 1000 northerners who'll probably very quickly switch loyalties. There's probably no fight.

Step 3. Stannis has 5-6000 men inside Winterfell, Roose has a couple of thousand outside Winterfell. Roose isn't stupid. Game over.

Step 4. Optional sneakly Stannis-doesn't-know random just for fun speculation bit, if all the rest falls into place: Roose high-tails it to the Dreadfort and finds his small forces left there have fallen to a large Manderly force. Manderly claims Hornwood and Dreadfort lands.

[cassidyaj]

That's along the lines of what I was thinking. Didn't Roose pretend that his men got captured by Lannisters so that they could be taken into Harrenhall and eventually be set free to take over? (I know Arya and Jaqen sped that plan up, but I always thought that was the plan.) That would be an excellent way to take Winterfell. If the Manderly men help Stannis, it could work.

[memeka]

1) once roose/ramsay is out, their scouts will know what happened, so I don't think any of them will get out

2) if indeed Manderly's have horses, they can arrive alone faster back at Winterfell, presumably the Freys footman following them 1 day behind

3) there might be some karstartks too (with kids hostages) to report stannis was defeated

4) how to motivate the lack of "freys" knights? surely the knights are known, you can't actually not interact, so they will be recognized as stannis knights. This makes me believe more the scenario where a few scouts return first with Lightbringer, then the "frey" + karstark + manderly mostly foot army (with horses given to stannis forces immediately behind), and battle ensues just as the door is opened.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

I have two things to bring up. I'm sorry if they are repeats I have skimmed but not scoured vol. i-v of this thread:

How did Theon recognize Stannis's voice? On the first page: "He knew that voice. Stannis." When did Theon Greyjoy and Stannis Baratheon meet? Am I missing something obvious here?

Is there an error?: Stannis did not reply at once. He studied the man before him, his brow furrowed. "Get up." The maester rose. "You are maester at the Dreadfort. How is it you are here with us?"

"Lord Arnolf brought me to tend to his wounded."

How does this make sense? If Tybald was maester at the Dreadfort, why would Arnolf Karstark have brought him? Then again:

"Answer me. If we were to loose these birds, would they return to the Dreadfort?" The king leaned forward. "Or might they fly for Winterfell instead?"

Why would a Karstark raven fly to the Dreadfort if the Karstarks were about to join battle against the Boltons? To send them a pre-battle greeting? Did GRRM mean to write Karhold in both instances? This part always confused me and this may be why...or I'm missing something...help?

Theon presumably heard Stannis speak at some point in the last day or so.

Tybald is the Maester of the Dreadfort, Arnolf was at the Dreadfort, which is why Theon and Arnolf immediately recognise one another. They have the Maester of the Dreadfort presumably because Ramsay or Roose thought he could send them ravens, perhaps they hadn't thought to bring their own maester, else he is elderly or frail.

I really don't think this is that complicated, Tybald is the Dreadfort maester claiming to be the Karhold maester, Stannis (somehow) figures out that Tybald does not actually serve the Karstarks and that he has loosed a raven, he doesn't know whether that raven is trained for the Dreadfort or Winterfell, but it seems doubtful it would not go to one of those two places.

From reading the Night Lamp theory I believe that Stannis knew from Mors Umber that the Karstarks were disloyal, he may even have been informed (by way of Hother Umber) that they had the Dreadfort maester with them.

[Casso, King of the Seals]

Theon presumably heard Stannis speak at some point in the last day or so.

After he met Asha when they arrived at Stannis's camp with Tycho Nestoris and told her his "incoherent" story, he was taken to face Stannis:

The burly, balding knight [ser Clayton Suggs] who'd been with her [Asha] had wasted no time shouting for help, so they'd had no more than a few moments before Theon was dragged away to face the king.

We don't precisely know what happened between the moment he was taken to the king and the beginning of this chapter, I think, but I assume Stannis ordered Theon to be chained so that he could question him and get some information regarding Bolton's plans, the situation inside Winterfell, etc..

[melx]

Stannis signed Bravos contract with blood , second sons have abounded that practice

since blood is poor ink (doesn't last)

sneaky by Stannis

[Low Sparrow]

Out of all the theories I've read concerning the pink letter, this one is making the most sense. Kudos to all the contributors in this thread for putting it together. The sequence of events and motivations are all adding up. Cementing it all, is the line from Stanis saying "You may hear that I'm dead. It may even be true."