Balon attacking the North

[Lord Reaver]

Who gave the 1000 figure in the first place?

You mean the 1000 ships Euron has ?

Lord Tyrell's bannermen. It's in chapter 32 of AFoC.

[Frey Pie]

You mean the 1000 ships Euron has ?

Lord Tyrell's bannermen. It's in chapter 32 of AFoC.

Ah alright I don't have it with me so can't check up on it

[Lord Reaver]

Well, the gist of it is Margaery bursts in on the small council with the report of 1000 ships. Then the other councillors say that can't possibly be true and that someone must have counted double. Whereupon Aurane Water points out that even 500 ships is a massive fleet and the only one that has a chance against it is Lord Redwyne's.

[Lion of the West]

Damn, you guys have been busy.

And the Isles navy will also defend the eastern coast of the north?

1. No, it won't. The Ironborn will have to build a new fleet for that side if they come that far.

The couple of million northerners will submit to the heavy hand of Balon and take new gods while leaving their daughters be taken as salt wives and sons as thralls?

2. No, they won't. But do you think that the several million of Westermen will do that either?

And Balon will be able to garrison the north as well as man his navy?

3. Most likely not.

Or the latter won't lose the way it did in the first rebellion?

Any attempt for independence by any region in Westeros will meet the same end by now. The Iron Islanders are just a fair ammount slower than the rest to get this.

Hitting the north wwhile claiming independence was the worst thing he could have done. Hitting lannisport is also not a good idea. Balon should have waited like he did in Roberts rebellion and tipped the scales in favour of the likely winner once it becomes clear they will win and use this leverage to increase his lands and prestige

I agree entirely. And the main reason that he can't do this is that he lives in the past and wants to be king himself, despite of reality.

I agree with your other reason for Balon being a fool though

I agree with your other reason for Balon being a fool though

Cheers! :)

Lionofthewest - And how are the Ironborn to not only gain the North, but hold it? The greater part of the Ironborn strength was at Moat Cailin, and they were going through hell with just dealing with the bog devils.

To start with, the Ironmen won't captured the North or hold from the start. The point with Moat Cailin is that if the gods really, really, really favors Balon he can win a decisive battle when Robb comes north and captured enough noble hostages to force his terms. So its one in a million chance for victory against 0% chance of victory.

We already know there are thousands of untapped men in the North, hundreds of strongholds that would have to be sieged, and can't just be stormed.

I think that hundreds of strongholds is way to far to go. Likewise I don't think there are that many untapped Northern reserves left. They surely couldn't raise a new mighty host to oust lord Bolton.

Claiming the neck is a good place to hold off attacks, is one thing. Being about to conquer a different culture, defeat them over thousands of miles, and away from their ships, and hold these lands, while at the same time being attacked from the south, well that doesn't sound possible.

I agree entirely. That's why the entire independence thing that he has going on isn't going to fly.

Balon wants the Old Ways. Who is he going to raid? On thats right there is only 1 other faction in Westeros to raid.

I agree, which also means that this faction has no reason whatsoever to allow the Old Ways to return.

How do they take each stronghold in turn? Your suggesting that they would storm each and every castle? Okay so by castle 4, thousands of miles from the sea, the Ironborn, as one of the smallest fighting forces, of roughly 12k - 25k fighting men, depends on who you believe, would lose so many men that they can't continue. Storming castles works on small scale castles, such as Deepwood Motte, Torrhen's Square, and the likes of the small holds on the Shield Islands.

I would assume that with a mixture of threats, violence and starvation most holds can be reduced. There is no such thing as an inpregnable castle and it will to a great deal be a matter of psychology. If the Starks and the field army is gone most holds are likely to surrender before dying for a lost cause. The ammount of fanatics who will fight to the bitter end is suprisingly small.

The Shield Islands were defeated because they led the Shield Islands forces away by sailing up the Mander, yeah, can't do much of that in the North. One castle surrendered because of a duel, this was Grimston. None of the battles seem major, and the Shield Islands themselves are minor, with castles that were taken, and not much else said about. It's one thing to take a small castle, and another to handle castles such as the Dreadfort, which withstood a 4 year siege against the might of the North.

I agree, it would certainly take time and work for the Ironborn to reduce the greater ones.

So Balon, or his heir would have to give up their conquest, with little gains, and rewards, and after being bleed, to return to the Iron Islands to await either swearing an oath of fealty or trying to continue the Old Ways against a united Westeros?

Pretty much. Attacking either the North or Westerlands as part of a separatist cause was stupid but I imagine that its easier to pull out of the North when things goes to hell.

No Balon is an idiot because he seeks to be a king, and he attacks the only other person seeking to be a king, and sends terms to Tywin, the defacto leader of the faction intent of keeping the Realm united. What Mace, a considered fool by almost all lords, and his bannerman, consider, doesn't matter. This is Tywin Reynes of Castamere, who Balon is afraid of, who he has beaten in the past, and yet knows how he treats slights against him. If your trying to win a crown, you don't attack the only other person who wants to wear a separate crown, and side with the person who wants all to bend to their crown.

I don't know how more clear people have to be. The enemy of the person I seek to overthrow doesn't make the person I seek to overthrow my friend. Doesn;t work that way. Balon was in rebellion against the Iron Throne, pure and simple. The phrase is, the enemy of my enemy is my friend, and since he was seeking to break about from the Iron Throne, that made the Iron throne his enemy, and the idiot that Balon was, instead attacked what could have been a friend and ally, and helped his enemy.

I agree however you also miss that whoever wins the Iron Throne will squash Balon's little island kingdom like a bunch of flies as there is no way in hell they can survive alone against a united Westeros. The idiot things is to crown himself from the start as it all goes to hell, no matter which path is chosen, from there.

Moat Cailin works against land based armies.

Considering that Robb couldn't arrange for his army to be transported to White Harbor I would think that Moat Cailin sufficed fairly well in the WoFK.

What about the navy's on the narrow sea?

That navy is only a concern if the North has bent to the Iron Throne.

Kings landing, Dragonstone, the Arbor all have navies on the side of Westeros yhe ironborn can't defend.

I agree.

Im gonna stop though, because if people want to hold to a plan that gets nothing, and requires a plan that works against every strength the ironborn claim, ala mobility via ships and small numbers, who am i to stop you?

Im gonna stop though, because if people want to hold to a plan that gets nothing, and requires a plan that works against every strength the ironborn claim, ala mobility via ships and small numbers, who am i to stop you?

I don't know to be honest.

You celebrate a plan that has the most numerically challenged power take on the power with the largest landmass, while also neglecting to factor in the foraging difficulty, as well as the integral need to lay siege, even though this power is extremely bad at it, have at it.
Any sense i make will earn me the label of Starkist, so i end it.
Just know you're as bad at strategy as Balon.

You celebrate a plan that has the most numerically challenged power take on the power with the largest landmass, while also neglecting to factor in the foraging difficulty, as well as the integral need to lay siege, even though this power is extremely bad at it, have at it.
Any sense i make will earn me the label of Starkist, so i end it.
Just know you're as bad at strategy as Balon.

No, I am a freaking genius compared to Balon. Because I would from the start never crown myself and align myself with Renly, and then Joffrey, to ensure I won't be standing alone and seek influence and prestige in the united Westeros that is the order of the day.

I am not arguing that the North could be taken by the Ironmen because it couldn't. I am arguing that attacking another separatist would make it easier for the Ironmen to be reconciled with the Iron Throne after their and Robb's inevitable defeats against the massed power of the rest of Westeros.

[Fat King Robert]

To start with, the Ironmen won't captured the North or hold from the start. The point with Moat Cailin is that if the gods really, really, really favors Balon he can win a decisive battle when Robb comes north and captured enough noble hostages to force his terms. So its one in a million chance for victory against 0% chance of victory.

I dissagree. If Balon focused on holding Moat Cailin (which he did, before he died and before Vic took most of his men and sailed to the kingsmoot) he could very well have defeated Robb. Meaning, I don't believe that he had 0% chance of victory, which you makes sound like a fact.

I would assume that with a mixture of threats, violence and starvation most holds can be reduced. There is no such thing as an inpregnable castle and it will to a great deal be a matter of psychology. If the Starks and the field army is gone most holds are likely to surrender before dying for a lost cause. The ammount of fanatics who will fight to the bitter end is suprisingly small.

Agreed.

I agree however you also miss that whoever wins the Iron Throne will squash Balon's little island kingdom like a bunch of flies as there is no way in hell they can survive alone against a united Westeros. The idiot things is to crown himself from the start as it all goes to hell, no matter which path is chosen, from there.

Will whoever wins the Iron Throne have the manpower to that? Enough ships? Enough supplies? Enough money? Winter is Coming. The IT is in serious debt with the iron bank of Braavos.

No, I am a freaking genius compared to Balon. Because I would from the start never crown myself and align myself with Renly, and then Joffrey, to ensure I won't be standing alone and seek influence and prestige in the united Westeros that is the order of the day.

That is a lot of decisions you base on reader knowledge there. Let's say that you swear fealty to Renly first. Wouldn't it make sense to swear fealty to Stannis after Renly's death? No one knew that the Tyrells would swear fealty to Joffrey. With Stannis marching (or rather, sailing) towards Kings Landing, one would think you would join him in that instead, as it would seem his victory was certain.

I agree that crowning himself wasn't the smartest thing, but that is because of the reader knowledge we have.

[Frey Pie]

Will whoever wins the Iron Throne have the manpower to that? Enough ships? Enough supplies? Enough money? Winter is Coming. The IT is in serious debt with the iron bank of Braavos.

Lol and where are the ironborn to get money? They are already poor and only white harbor is rich and would be incredibly difficult to take. Furthermore all the south needs is a few ships on the east coast where ironborn presence is zero. Unless you think they can take every castle in the north, set up some shipyards, cut down hundreds of trees and build a new navy and crew it over there?

And we have seen what non northerners are like in winter. The ironborn will fare no better and would never survive it in anything close to large numbers

[TheWanderer]

I have. The rumor was of 1000 ships, I have allowed for half that number, even though GRRM's own statements indicate that is too low.

GRRM's statement is pretty damn vague and certainly does not indicate that 500 ships is too low. And you're clearly using more than 500 ships as 500*30 is 15k. No one is opposed to the Ironborn having 15-20k soldiers, that seems quite reasonable.

I'm defending Balon's decision making from being "stupid" or "idiotic" or any of the words you lot love to throw around. That doesn't mean I necessarily agree with or have to agree with every reason he had.

If his reasoning is wrong than his decision is wrong. If his decision is wrong and he makes it anyway, then he is dumb. So... you agree that he is making stupid decisions.

But you don't have a reliable population estimate for either of the two areas. So in the end you're simply guessing.

The way the Iron Islands are consistently described shows that they are not densely populated. A small region, sparsely populated does not have the population that larger regions have. That's not a guess it's logic. If they have a smaller population they simply can't have a larger military without drastic changes to their military system, which we have no evidence for.

1) As did both Denmark and Sweden, Norway to a lesser degree.

2) Scandinavians descend from the same cultural group as germans, and maintained frequent contact with them. Yet their culture developed quite differently.

3) No difficulty ? You're forgetting the fact that the Riverlands rose up in rebellion against the Ironborn.

4) Culture and religion are not as easily separable as you seem to think.

You missed 5. 5 is the most important one. All any arguments you make here can do is open up the possibility of the Iron Islands having a different government system but they're not evidence that it does.

GRRM's word is more valuable insight than your "common sense".

The quote from Martin you provided is vague enough to be not very valuable. Martin's words in story though consistently do not paint a picture of the Ironborn being the third largest military force.

Please, do go on to describe how everyone should think and act,

Um... okay. If Balon controls the third largest military in Westeros then I would expect him to go after the Westerlands, as the military there cannot possibly contend with him, if he was still set on the North I would expect aggressive moves against Winterfell. I would expect the North to have built a fleet and fortresses to defend its western coast from a greater military power. I would expect Tywin and Renly to leave more forces behind to ensure their lands are protected from this threat. I would expect Tywin, Renly and probably even Stannis to make overtures to such a decisive game-changer. I would expect the Iron Islands, and the Greyjoys in particular, to have stronger ties to the Iron Throne. After all the Iron Islands is apparently a bigger player than Dorne, the Vale, the North, the Stormlands and the Riverlands.

I don't have a problem with Martin because Martin doesn't make any of things happen and doesn't provide any actually evidence that those things should have been happening. If Martin were to actually give the Iron Islands 40k men I would have a problem with that because it would then open up these plot holes.

This is quickly becoming more than a little tedious, not to mention ridiculous. On one hand, Balon is crazy for attacking at all, since he can't possibly have enough men. When I explain that he does have enough men, it's completely unreasonable, because then he would have attacked!

Can we say catch 22 ?

It isn't the number of men Balon has that makes the North untenable, that's just a fact of its geography. The Reach doesn't have enough men to hold it either. The longer you spend in the North the worse this problem gets, especially as winter closes in. That means that Balon needs to move as quickly as possible in the North. Since his military is roughly on par with what remains in the North (once you take the men holding the Neck out of the equation) that means he is forced to raid the coast and take small, poorly defended forts. If his army is in fact far larger than the forces defending the North than he can take the larger, and thus wealthier, castles and hold more territory.

Either way attacking the North in the manner he does is stupid and either way attacking the Westerlands is a better idea.

I've made no such claim. Stop strawmanning. The only thing I've made any claims on is estimating the Ironborn forces.

And your estimate of the Ironborn forces is 40k, which is the third largest military force in Westeros.

Deck enough for a hundred men. Clearly the ships of the Iron Fleet would be at least this size or bigger, as the two he names are.

The Sea Bitch is given to the heir apparent of the Iron Islands. The two ships he mentions belong to the Lord of the Iron Islands and the Captain of the Iron Fleet. Logically these three ships would be amongst the largest and most splendid ships on the Iron Islands. Now some of the ships in the Iron Fleet would probably be of similar size. But since most ships the Ironborn use are a third of this size, most ships hold roughly 30 men.

I would assume that with a mixture of threats, violence and starvation most holds can be reduced. There is no such thing as an inpregnable castle and it will to a great deal be a matter of psychology. If the Starks and the field army is gone most holds are likely to surrender before dying for a lost cause. The ammount of fanatics who will fight to the bitter end is suprisingly small.

The amount of fanatics willing to fight for a lost Stark cause is pretty darn high in the latter books. Further they don't have to be fighting for the Starks to fight the Ironborn. No one is going to want to be ruled by the Ironborn, holding their castles is the best way to do that so they're going to hold them as long as they possibly can. We know the Dreadfort held for four years against the Starks in a loosing cause, we know that Balon thought Winterfell would take a year (though I'd think it'd be quite a bit longer) and we know that winter is less than a year away.

I agree however you also miss that whoever wins the Iron Throne will squash Balon's little island kingdom like a bunch of flies as there is no way in hell they can survive alone against a united Westeros. The idiot things is to crown himself from the start as it all goes to hell, no matter which path is chosen, from there.

His kingdom can't stand against a united Westeros, which is why Balon needs Westeros to not be united. Robb doesn't want a united Westeros either and can actually potentially hold his kingdom against a united Westeros. There is a possibility for Balon to hold his kingdom in a fractured Westeros so he should attempt to fracture Westeros and for that he needs Robb.

[Jasta11]

That is a lot of decisions you base on reader knowledge there. Let's say that you swear fealty to Renly first. Wouldn't it make sense to swear fealty to Stannis after Renly's death? No one knew that the Tyrells would swear fealty to Joffrey. With Stannis marching (or rather, sailing) towards Kings Landing, one would think you would join him in that instead, as it would seem his victory was certain.

I agree that crowning himself wasn't the smartest thing, but that is because of the reader knowledge we have.

Not really, it's just going with the flow. Renly was the most powerful, so you go with Renly. Once he bites it, after the Blackwater, Joffrey is the most powerful, so you go with Joffrey. That's the logic, I assume.

You don't need reader knowledge at all, or even anything but basic political sense, to understand that attacking the North would alienate them, and then crowning yourself would alienate you with anyone seeking to obtain the IT, meaning all of the South save the Vale and Dorne. Doing one OR the other would have made some sense, even if doing so that early in the rebellion is kinda counter-productive. Doing both simply erases the gains of the other completely on the mid-long term. I mean, there's a friggin reason no one in-universe thinks it's a great move, and even Asha (who was loyal to her father as far as we know) says it was a dumb thing to do that got the Ironborn nothing but rocks, turnips and pissed off Northerners.

Besides, Balon gives his reasons to Theon, and he always insists on the vengeance aspect. Straight from the guy's mouth, we know that his primary desire is to fuck over the Starks. Any strategic considerations, if any, are secondary to that.

I'm not saying Balon should have kissed Robb's feet. An alliance with the North beings him little. But if he wanted to fuck over the North, propose to do so with the IT and they will certainly lend an ear, especially in the first half of Clash where the war is going astray for them. If he wants independance, let all contestants bleed each other dry, then swoop in to reap the plunder from everyone, perhaps with surprise assaults on docked fleets like at Lannisport during the first Rebellion. Balon tried to do both, and as result his efforts were mostly a waste of time. Theon's disobedience and Ramsay being Ramsay did far more to hurt the Northern cause than any of Balon's chest-thumping shenanigans.

[Lord Reaver]

The Sea Bitch is given to the heir apparent of the Iron Islands. The two ships he mentions belong to the Lord of the Iron Islands and the Captain of the Iron Fleet.

Theon is not the heir apparent, Asha is. And yes, those other two ships belong to his father and uncle, of course he'd compare with them. And it just say "not as large", they could be twice as big, 1.5 times as big, we have no idea. Nor do we know how many other ships are larger, just that those two are.

Using 30 men pr ship as an average is completely unrealistic when we know the Iron Fleet is 100 ships each with 100+ men. That is going to skew the average up something fierce.

Alternatively, we can assume 30 men average per ship not in the Iron Fleet, and say there's 500 ships there, and we'll end up with 30x500 = 15k + 10k (Iron Fleet), and we'd have my lowest estimate of 25k. And that's assuming there's only say 2-3 "major" houses, with all the other 20+ houses barely contributing at all. Which is stretching it. So, I'd say the actual number is higher, probably well above 30k, closer to 40, which is about the middle of my earlier proposed range.

And your estimate of the Ironborn forces is 40k, which is the third largest military force in Westeros.

My estimate was between 25-50k, actually. I don't see why you're so hung up on 40k as a number. And I don't really know exactly the size of the other forces (neither do you, I presume), so I'm not willing to say what the relation is. All I know is it's less than the 80k or so Renly gets from the Reach.

[Cas Stark]

30K in the iron fleet seem really high, isn't Robb's northern army only 20K men? Looking at the size of the iron islands even w/the north being sparsely populated this seems off.

[Lord Reaver]

30K in the iron fleet seem really high, isn't Robb's northern army only 20K men? Looking at the size of the iron islands even w/the north being sparsely populated this seems off.

The army Robb hastily gathers to take south is 18k, if I remember correctly. After that, there is a significant number of men left, as we see later in the books. I haven't done any work to try and estimate how many exactly, though.

[Fat King Robert]

Not really, it's just going with the flow. Renly was the most powerful, so you go with Renly. Once he bites it, after the Blackwater, Joffrey is the most powerful, so you go with Joffrey. That's the logic, I assume.

Well, he wasn't really the most powerful, IIRC. The Tyrells were the "only" ones who didn't swear fealty to Stannis, of all the soldiers Renly had. That made Stannis (at the moment) the most powerful contender to the throne, with no real knowledge if LF would be able to haggle with the Tyrells in time for them and Tywin to save Kings Landing.

You don't need reader knowledge at all, or even anything but basic political sense, to understand that attacking the North would alienate them, and then crowning yourself would alienate you with anyone seeking to obtain the IT, meaning all of the South save the Vale and Dorne. Doing one OR the other would have made some sense, even if doing so that early in the rebellion is kinda counter-productive. Doing both simply erases the gains of the other completely on the mid-long term. I mean, there's a friggin reason no one in-universe thinks it's a great move, and even Asha (who was loyal to her father as far as we know) says it was a dumb thing to do that got the Ironborn nothing but rocks, turnips and pissed off Northerners.

Besides, Balon gives his reasons to Theon, and he always insists on the vengeance aspect. Straight from the guy's mouth, we know that his primary desire is to fuck over the Starks. Any strategic considerations, if any, are secondary to that.

I'm not saying Balon should have kissed Robb's feet. An alliance with the North beings him little. But if he wanted to fuck over the North, propose to do so with the IT and they will certainly lend an ear, especially in the first half of Clash where the war is going astray for them. If he wants independance, let all contestants bleed each other dry, then swoop in to reap the plunder from everyone, perhaps with surprise assaults on docked fleets like at Lannisport during the first Rebellion. Balon tried to do both, and as result his efforts were mostly a waste of time. Theon's disobedience and Ramsay being Ramsay did far more to hurt the Northern cause than any of Balon's chest-thumping shenanigans.

Balon crowning himself was a mistake of sorts. And I agree that he based decisions out of spite and vengeance. However, WHEN Balon crowned himself; look at the conflicts. The realm was hardly united. Chaos and fighting.

Theon didn't disobey Balon's order technically, he should have taken WF, taken all the valuables and supplies, sacked it, and taken Bran and Rickon as hostages. That'd put Balon in a much better position.

One could argue that Stannis was a fool to announce himself king at the time....or was he?

To be fair, it feels like this thread has been going on for far too long. I've put forth my arguments why I don't consider Balon complete fool (which many people do, some, though not all, because of reader knowledge and Starkism) several times. I guess we'll all have to agree that we're disagreeing then.

[Frey Pie]

To be fair, it feels like this thread has been going on for far too long. I've put forth my arguments why I don't consider Balon complete fool (which many people do, some, though not all, because of reader knowledge and Starkism) several times. I guess we'll all have to agree that we're disagreeing then.

For god sake there's no such thing as starkism in this thread. In some there are but both sides have given their opinions properly. I might as well day you don't listen to us because of your greyjoyism

[khalhotpie]

I think he saw the north as the softer target, mix in the added joy in getting revenge

Also

-the westerlands is richer in gold true.....but what is that to a race that has disdain for paying the gold price for anything

- the north coast forrests might be of interest to a shipbuilding people as would those thick wolf and bear pelts to those living in a cold desolate place

and the deer in the forrest might be a welcome change from whats probably largely a seafood diet too.

[Fat King Robert]

For god sake there's no such thing as starkism in this thread. In some there are but both sides have given their opinions properly. I might as well say you don't listen to us because of your greyjoyism

There is though. I'm no Greyjoyist either.

[Lord Reaver]

Look, here's the deal. I've presented textual references, quotes from GRRM and comparisons to real cultures that seem relevant as inspiration for the Ironborn. All seem to support my claims.

In opposition, I have been presented with nothing but opinions like "the islands are too small and barren". No textual references, no other sources to back it up, just the supposed "common sense" of a few opinionated posters.

In response I've had to take shit for not responding enough to the repetitive posting of opinions which are more or less unrelated and basically go back to "If this was true, it makes the Ironborn too powerful! Waah!"

I have a question for you guys: If the Iron Islands was only able to field a meagre 12k soldiers, how on earth did they dominate the entire west coast of Westeros at one point in time ? Indeed, how did they take and hold the entire Riverlands with such a small number of men (we know they didn't recruit from the lands they occupied, as they only took those for thralls/salt-wives).

[Lion of the West]

I dissagree. If Balon focused on holding Moat Cailin (which he did, before he died and before Vic took most of his men and sailed to the kingsmoot) he could very well have defeated Robb. Meaning, I don't believe that he had 0% chance of victory, which you makes sound like a fact.

I didn't say that Balon had 0% chance of victory against Robb. I said that he would have 0% chance of victory if he was going agains the Iron Throne. Robert made that very clear some years earlier.

Will whoever wins the Iron Throne have the manpower to that? Enough ships? Enough supplies? Enough money? Winter is Coming. The IT is in serious debt with the iron bank of Braavos.

Yes they will. Maybe not this year or the next year but certainly in ten or twenty years. And if you can at best hope for two decades of independence before you are smashed, crushed and beaten back into the realm then I must ask what the point of it is?

That is a lot of decisions you base on reader knowledge there. Let's say that you swear fealty to Renly first. Wouldn't it make sense to swear fealty to Stannis after Renly's death? No one knew that the Tyrells would swear fealty to Joffrey. With Stannis marching (or rather, sailing) towards Kings Landing, one would think you would join him in that instead, as it would seem his victory was certain.

I agree that crowning himself wasn't the smartest thing, but that is because of the reader knowledge we have.

No, that's not reader knowledge. First he would know that Renly has the Reach and the Stormlands behind him, making him the obviously most powerful guy as well as giving Balon a shot at turning on old enemies, like the Starks. Second it seems to me that before Balon can do much with the news of Stannis gaining the Stormlands the Lannister-Tyrell alliance would be known and thus Balon is unlikely to have managed to act to the benefit of Stannis. Thus it should be fairly easy to switch over to Joffrey.

In regards to crowing himself the long and sad history of failed rebellions by the Greyjoys, and in particular the recent experience with it, should make it very clear what a bad course of action that would be.

The amount of fanatics willing to fight for a lost Stark cause is pretty darn high in the latter books. Further they don't have to be fighting for the Starks to fight the Ironborn.

Since these supposed fanatics did absolutely nothing against lord Bolton before Stannis showed up shows that they seems to have been more about doing Blackwood than anything else; maintaining a facade of resistance until the Boltons shows up so that it won't look like they just bent the knee right away.

No one is going to want to be ruled by the Ironborn, holding their castles is the best way to do that so they're going to hold them as long as they possibly can. We know the Dreadfort held for four years against the Starks in a loosing cause, we know that Balon thought Winterfell would take a year (though I'd think it'd be quite a bit longer) and we know that winter is less than a year away.

I agree entirely, Balon would never take the North but it would still be a better choice than to attack the mainland down south.

His kingdom can't stand against a united Westeros, which is why Balon needs Westeros to not be united. Robb doesn't want a united Westeros either and can actually potentially hold his kingdom against a united Westeros. There is a possibility for Balon to hold his kingdom in a fractured Westeros so he should attempt to fracture Westeros and for that he needs Robb.

No, Robb's kingdom would not survive against the rest of Westeros. Maybe, maybe the North could make it but with the Riverlands, which they would be bound by honor to defend, its a deathtrap for them. It was only a matter of time before the end of these bunch of separatists came to them.

But I agree that if Balon could fracture Westeros if could allow the Old Ways to return and Robb was Balon's best shot for it.