The Fat Man's Plan

[Mithras]

After gathering up all these pieces together, I searched the forum and see that Frey family reunion asked some of the questions I answered in this thread. In fact, I did focus mainly on the cooperation between Illyrio and Xaro in the OP. Not all the plans of Illyrio are covered here.

“Which plan?” said Tristan Rivers. “The fat man’s plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons. Instead the girl turns up on Slaver’s Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man decides we should meet her by Volantis. Now that plan is in ruins as well.”

“The plan was to reveal Prince Aegon only when we reached Queen Daenerys,” Lemore was saying.

“That was when we believed the girl was coming west. Our dragon queen has burned that plan to ash, and thanks to that fat fool in Pentos, we have grasped the she-dragon by the tail and burned our fingers to the bone.”

“Illyrio could not have been expected to know that the girl would choose to remain at Slaver’s Bay.”

“No more than he knew that the Beggar King would die young, or that Khal Drogo would follow him into the grave. Very little of what the fat man has anticipated has come to pass.”

I would not hurry to say that. Beggar King, for once, was not supposed to live, no more than Dany, according to the fat man’s plans.

“If truth be told, I did not think Daenerys would survive for long amongst the horselords.”

“Illyrio does not play cyvasse.”

No, thought the dwarf, he plays the game of thrones, and you and Griff and Duck are only pieces, to be moved where he will and sacrificed at need, just as he sacrificed Viserys.

This alone shows that the fat man does not share all his plans with his men including those as high ranking as Griff. Well, he had a good reason to keep this “getting rid of the true Targaryens” plan secret from Griff. Otherwise, he might have started to ask questions about the true nature of Young Griff.

Since Viserys and Dany (assassinated on Robert’s command) were supposed to die, Drogo was supposed to create chaos and instability. So the GC was never supposed to join with Drogo’s khalassar and wreak havoc in Westeros.

Illyrio is in fact a Blakcfyre supporter but he tries to look like a genuine Targaryen supporter in the eyes of Griff or every other faction who cares to think about it.

“Mantarys will be next, if she marches west along the old Valyrian roads. If she comes by sea, well … her fleet must take on food and water at Volantis.”

“By land or by sea, there are long leagues between Meereen and Volantis,” Tyrion observed.

“Five hundred fifty, as the dragon flies, through deserts, mountains, swamps, and demon-haunted ruins. Many and more will perish, but those who survive will be stronger by the time they reach Volantis … where they shall find you and Griff awaiting them, with fresh forces and sufficient ships to carry them all across the sea to Westeros.”

By land or sea, Dany has to make a pit stop at Volantis on her way to Westeros. This is true and Illyrio knows it. According to his original plan, Griff, the GC and Dany were supposed to meet at Volantis and set sails to Westeros. We know that Griff travelled down the Rhoyne as the GC broke its contract with Myr and started marching to Volantis.

With this perspective, Illyrio should have done something to arrange Dany’s arrival to Volantis by the right time to have her meet with Griff and the GC.

“Tell me true, old friend, why did you seek me out if not to trade?”

“To bring a gift, for the queen of my heart.”

“Say on.” What trap is this, now?

“The gift you begged of me in Qarth. Ships. There are thirteen galleys in the bay. Yours, if you will have them. I have brought you a fleet, to carry you home to Westeros.”

A fleet. It was more than she could hope for, so of course it made her wary. In Qarth, Xaro had offered her thirty ships … for a dragon. “And what price do you ask for these ships?”

“None. I no longer lust for dragons. I saw their work at Astapor on my way here, when my Silken Cloud put in for water. The ships are yours, sweet queen. Thirteen galleys, and men to pull the oars.”

Thirteen. To be sure. Xaro was one of the Thirteen. No doubt he had convinced each of his fellow members to give up one ship. She knew the merchant prince too well to think that he would sacrifice thirteen of his own ships.

Xaro once offered 30 ships for a dragon. How can he offer 13 ships for free this time? I don’t think he can give even a single ship without being paid. The rich men always take more than they give. That is how they become rich. This was obviously a trap.

I think all these ships were paid by Illyrio to make Dany come to Volantis to meet Griff at the right time. If she came, she was going to be fooled into the conspiracy of Illyrio.

“I will not abandon Meereen to the fate of Astapor. It grieves me to say so, but Westeros must wait.”

Groleo was aghast. “We must accept these ships. If we refuse this gift …”

Ser Barristan went to one knee before her. “My queen, your realm has need of you. You are not wanted here, but in Westeros men will flock to your banners by the thousands, great lords and noble knights. ‘She is come,’ they will shout to one another, in glad voices. ‘Prince Rhaegar’s sister has come home at last.’ ”

“If they love me so much, they will wait for me.” Dany stood. “Reznak, summon Xaro Xhoan Daxos.”

Groleo was Illyrio’s captain. It is natural for him to urge Dany accept this offer. Barristan OTOH is a fool as Illyrio said:

“You are a clever imp, just as Varys said, and Daenerys will have need of clever men about her. Ser Barristan is a valiant knight and true; but none, I think, has ever called him cunning.”

Once Dany decided to stay in Meereen, Volantis declared war on Dany and started to gather sellswords and slave soldiers for the Fleet. Illyrio/Qarth/Volantis are all slavers and they cannot suffer Dany further damaging the slave trade. I think Illyrio willingly agreed to sign the death sentence of Dany because they did not have the time to wait for her. More importantly, they could no longer the caprices of the young queen as she was obviously proving to be troublesome.

“The queen’s name is on every tongue in Selhorys. They say she still sits in Meereen, sore beset. If the talk in the markets can be believed, Old Volantis will soon join the war against her.”

The girl never started for the west. No doubt she had good reasons. Between Meereen and Volantis lay five hundred leagues of deserts, mountains, swamps, and ruins, plus Mantarys with its sinister repute. A city of monsters, they say, but if she marches overland, where else is she to turn for food and water? The sea would be swifter, but if she does not have the ships …

Tyrion didn’t know that Illyrio arranged 13 ships to carry her to Volantis at that time. Since from the beginning he was suspecting the absurdity of Illyrio (a slaver), Volantis (a slaving city) and the GC (Blackfyres) restoring a Targaryen, I think he will at some point realize these schemes of Illyrio.

It is ironic how most of the readers including Dany fans abhor the Meereenese Knot. But in fact, should Dany take the bait and get on the ships, she would most probably be killed or enslaved. These so-called boring chapters in Meereen saved her skin.

Even that was preferable to the answer of Mantarys, which came by way of caravan in a cedar chest. Inside she had found the heads of her three envoys, pickled.

I bet Illyrio played some part in this answer of Mantarys to provoke Dany.

“It grieves me to say it, but Magister Illyrio and his friends may have been unwise to put so much hope on this child queen.”

No, thought Griff, but they were most unwise to put their hopes on you.

No, I think. They did everything to persuade Dany to start for the west.

“The priest is calling on the Volantenes to go to war,” the Halfmaester told him, “but on the side of right, as soldiers of the Lord of Light, R’hllor who made the sun and stars and fights eternally against the darkness. Nyessos and Malaquo have turned away from the light, he says, their hearts darkened by the yellow harpies from the east. He says …”

“Give me priests who are fat and corrupt and cynical,” he told Haldon, “the sort who like to sit on soft satin cushions, nibble sweetmeats, and diddle little boys. It’s the ones who believe in gods who make the trouble.”

“It may be that we can use this trouble to our advantage.”

Here Haldon is talking about the trouble which is caused by the Red Temple as they are openly preaching against the Volantene in their fight with Dany. The slaves are flocking to the preaching of the Red Temple and the Old Blood fears the consequences.

“No ships for Slaver’s Bay. Westeros is another matter. The east is closed to us, not the sea. The triarchs would be glad to see the back of us, I do not doubt. They might even help us arrange passage back to the Seven Kingdoms. No city wants an army on its doorstep.”

“He’s not wrong,” said Lysono Maar.

This is how they used this trouble for their advantage. With such dire conditions the Old Blood is in, the GC forced their hands to gain a free ticket to Westeros. Otherwise, Illyrio might have to pay an enormous sum of gold for the transport.

“Dragons and young girls are both capricious, and it may be that you will need to adjust your plans. Griff will know what to do.”

“You place a deal of trust in this man Griff. Another friend of your childhood?”

“No. A sellsword, you would call him, but Westerosi born. Daenerys needs men worthy of her cause.” Illyrio raised a hand. “I know! ‘Sellswords put gold before honor,’ you are thinking. ‘This man Griff will sell me to my sister.’ Not so. I trust Griff as I would trust a brother.”

Varys and Illyrio know their man well because Griff really proved that he can decide what is best at changing conditions.

“… as for Connington,” Tyrell repeated, “what victories has he ever won that we should fear him? He could have ended Robert’s Rebellion at Stoney Sept. He failed. Just as the Golden Company has always failed. Some may rush to join them, aye. The realm is well rid of such fools.”

Ser Kevan wished that he could share his certainty. That was all so long ago, though. If this is indeed Jon Connington, he will be a different man. Older, harder, more seasoned … more dangerous.

In his youth, Jon Connington had shared the disdain most knights had for bowmen, but he had grown wiser in exile. In its own way, the arrow was as deadly as the sword, so for the long voyage he had insisted that Homeless Harry Strickland break Balaq’s command into ten companies of one hundred men and place each company upon a different ship.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

Tyrion didn’t know that Illyrio arranged 13 ships to carry her to Volantis at that time. Since from the beginning he was suspecting the absurdity of Illyrio (a slaver), Volantis (a slaving city) and the GC (Blackfyres) restoring a Targaryen, I think he will at some point realize these schemes of Illyrio.

It is ironic how most of the readers including Dany fans abhor the Meereenese Knot. But in fact, should Dany take the bait and get on the ships, she would most probably be killed or enslaved. These so-called boring chapters in Meereen saved her skin.

So based on this info, the plan for Tyrion (since they obviously have some purpose for him) was never actually to send him to Dany, but to use that as an excuse for pairing him up with fAegon, assuming that Tyrion would stay with fAegon and JonCon and help conquer Westeros? Cuz that would make waaaaayyy more sense to me than sending him to Dany on purpose.

[Mithras]

So based on this info, the plan for Tyrion (since they obviously have some purpose for him) was never actually to send him to Dany, but to use that as an excuse for pairing him up with fAegon, assuming that Tyrion would stay with fAegon and JonCon and help conquer Westeros? Cuz that would make waaaaayyy more sense to me than sending him to Dany on purpose.

Well they never planned to send Tyrion to Dany, or anyone else. Because they thought Dany would take the 13 ships Xaro gave to her and sail to Volantis, where Griff, fAegon and Tyrion were supposed to meet her. When they got the news that Dany refused the offer and stayed in Meereen, they decided to leave without her. Besides, they never thought they will lose Tyrion too.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

Well they never planned to send Tyrion to Dany, or anyone else. Because they thought Dany would take the 13 ships Xaro gave to her and sail to Volantis, where Griff, fAegon and Tyrion were supposed to meet her. When they got the news that Dany refused the offer and stayed in Meereen, they decided to leave without her. Besides, they never thought they will lose Tyrion too.

I guess what I'm wondering/assuming is, why did they send Tyrion with fAegon? I would think for political counsel and anti-Cersei advice.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

I guess what I'm wondering/assuming is, why did they send Tyrion with fAegon? I would think for political counsel and anti-Cersei advice.

This. Tyrion can tell them the current climate in Westeros from a very different perspective than Varys has.

[Mithras]

I guess what I'm wondering/assuming is, why did they send Tyrion with fAegon? I would think for political counsel and anti-Cersei advice.

Varys knows well what Tyrion is capable of. His political skills and ability to improvise are much needed. And they will have their rightful puppet lord of Lannister.

[The Kinkslayer]

The problem with IlIyrio as the ultimate puppetmaster is the speed in which he can send messages to the other side of the world. Illyrio tells Tyrion that the galley he sent to Asshai will take 2 years to return, so assuming that 6 months is enough to get a message from slaver's bay (Dany is staying) and 7 months to sent messages to Qarth to get the ships, that's over a year for Illyrio to get ships to Dany. He may have been better served by getting the ships in Pentos or somewhere else as Dany has more trust in Illyrio than in XXDx

[Frey family reunion]

To the OP, I like your analysis but I think you're leaving some of Illyrio's coconspirators out.

Remember how Illyrio greeted Dany at the beginning of AGOT:

"May the Lord of Light shower you with blessings on this most fortunate day, Princess Daenerys," the magister said as he took her hand.

And then we learn that the Red Priests are fairly influential within the walls of Pentos

The square brick towers of Pentos were black silhouettes outlined against the setting sun. Dany could hear the singing of the red priests as they lit their night fires...

"It is not that we fear these barbarians," Illyrio would explain with a smile. "The Lord of Light would hold our city walls against a million Dothraki, or so the red priests promise..."

But the clincher that the Red Priests may be involved with Illyrio's planned invasion of Westeros comes as we learn who is present at the presumably invite only wedding shower of Khal Drogo and Daenaerys Targaryen:

Thye stepped past the eunuch into a pillared courtyard overgrown in pale ivy. Moonlight painted the leaves in shades of bone and silver as the guests drifted among them. Many were Dothraki horselords, big men with red-brown skin, their drooping mustachios bound in metal rings, their black hair oiled and braided and hung with bells. Yet among them moved bravos and sellswords from Pentos and Myr and Tyrosh, a red priest even fatter than Illyrio, hairy men from the Port of Ibben, and lords from the Summer Isles with skin as black as ebony.

Now I think the possibility that the Red Temple may be involved in Illyrio's plan may help explain a part of his plan that otherwise appears very foolish.

As you stated above, around the time that Xaro offers Dany the thirteen ships to leave Mereen, Illyrio steers the Golden Company to outside the walls of Volantis. His plan apparently is for Dany to meet up with the Golden Company. Yet surely Illyrio must have at least some idea that Dany meeting up with a sellsword company outside of Volantis would be met with hostility by the Old blood of Volantis. Even Tyrion who had just arrived in Essos realizes that there is something suspect with this plan.

"... Many and more will perish, but those who survive will be stronger by the time they reach Volantis ... where they shall find you and Griff awaiting them, with fresh forces and sufficient ships to carry them all across the sea to Westeros."

Tyrion pondered all he knew of Volantis, oldest and proudest of the Nine Free Cities. Something was awry here. Even with half a nose he could smell it. "It's said there are five slaves for every free man in Volantis. Why would the triarchs assist a queen who smashed the slave trade?"

Why indeed especially since at the time the Red Priests are inciting the slaves in Volantis using Dany's name

The Volantene waved a hand. "In Volantis, thousands of slaves and freedmen crowd the temple plaza every night to hear Benerro shriek of bleeding stars and a sword of fire that will cleanse the world. He has been preaching that Volantis will surely burn if the triarchs take up arms against the silver queen."

And if Dany landed outside of Volantis, the Old Blood would surely take up arms against her. It's even being talked about up and down the Rhoyne:

"What word from old Volantis?" Yandry called.

"War," the word came back.

"Where?" Griff shouted. "When?"

"When the year turns," came the answer, "Nyessos and Malaquo go hand in hand, and the elephants show stripes."

"Elephants with stripes?" Griff muttered. "What is that about? Nyessos and Malaquo? Illyrio has paid Triarch Nyessos enough to own him eight times over."

It's inconceivable that someone as involved in the merchant trade like Illyrio would have been unaware of the powder keg that would have awaited Dany when she landed outside of Volantis. It also just so happens that one of the lieutenants of a former coconspirator of Illyrio is also moving his forces south down the Rhoyne towards Volantis at the same time that the Golden Company has set their camp up across the Rhoyne:

" - Khal Pono," Haldon finished. "Motho and Zekko flee from him, if the tales are true. The last reports had Pono near the headwaters of the Selhorus with a khalasar of thirty thousand. Griff does not want to risk being caught up in the crossing if Pono should decide to risk the Rhoyne"

Haldon Halfmaester explained. "On the way down from the Sorrows to Selhorys, we thrice glimpsed riders moving south along the river's eastern shore. Dothraki. Once they were so close we could hear the bells tinkling in their braids, and sometimes at night their fires could be seen beyond the eastern hills. We passed warships as well, Volantene river galleys crammed with slave soldiers. The triarchs fear an attack upon Selhorys, plainly."

Tyrion understood that quick enough. Along amongst the major river towns, Selhorys stood upon the eastern bank of the Rhoyne, making it much more vulnerable to the horselords than its sister towns across the river. Even so, it is a small prize. If I were Khal, I would feint at Selhorys, let the Volantenes ruch to defend it, then swing south and ride hard for Volantis itself"

And let us not forget that with the vote for war Volantis sends it's navy with Tiger cloaks towards Mereen.

So if Illyrio's plan had gone into effect, Dany arrives outside of Volantis to meet with the Golden Company. At this time Volantis, assumes that she is arriving to invade like she did every other town. They send what's left of the Tiger cloaks to engage. The Dothraki, charge, and the slaves are incited to revolt. Against this backdrop, I presume even the Black Walls of the Old blood fall and the Red Temple emerges to take control of what is left of Volantis.

Now why would Illyrio risk his invasion of Westeros to help the Red Temple overthrow Volantis?

Well remember, before the Golden Company decided to help Aegon invade Westeros, the Old Blood of Volantis tried to hire them to take down the Red Temple:

"Triarch Malaquo tried to hire the Golden Company, did you know? He meant to clean out the red temple and put Benerro to the sword. He dared not use tiger cloaks. Half of them worship the Lord of Light as well.

So Illyrio's plan helps keep the Golden Company from taking down the Red Temple in Volantis, and I think his plan goes even further to try and deliver all of Volantis to the Red Priests.

"I told you, my little friend, not all that a man does is done for gain. Believe as you wish, but even fat old fools like me have friends, and debts of affection to repay."

My guess is the Red Priests are some of the friends that Illyrio is indebted to and may in fact need for his plans. Especially after his dragon horn is intercepted by Euron Greyjoy and his Silence. Remember, three Warlocks, err four Warlock, were enroute to Pentos when Euron seized them and after torturing them learned some interesting information. My guess is the dragon horn came from that ship and not the ruins of Valyria as Euron claims. Now who happens to make his way on the ship containing the dragon horn, and gets the confidence of it's captain, Victarion? Why a Red Priest even bigger than Illyrio. I think Illyrio needs the Red Priests to kidnap Dany's dragons, and Volantis is his payment for their services.

[Leonardo]

Some very nice posts in this thread, and illustrate a lot more as to the fat man's plans

10/10 for OP and Frey's post

[ghosts in winterfell]

I like it, well done!

[the conquoring bastard25]

Love it Love it Love it.

I've long suspect that there was way more to the fat man. Yet it was like a loose tooth that kept evading me. I could feel it, taste it but I couldn't quite put all the parts together.

This also fits into my theory that Littlefinger was once Vary's little bird, when he tried to rise too high too fast he had to be shipped over to the Fat Man for seasoning. Think about Jon gave him his first post in customs. The fat man has a hand in everything, so it makes sense that he would need someone on the inside that can manipulate the numbers. Littlefinger would bring in 3 times as much as any other person. Then look at some of the men that he surrounds himself with and puts in high places, men of middling birth (merchant sons and traders), but also foreigners.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

It is ironic how most of the readers including Dany fans abhor the Meereenese Knot. But in fact, should Dany take the bait and get on the ships, she would most probably be killed or enslaved. These so-called boring chapters in Meereen saved her skin.

She had a 10k unsullied army + a freedman army that would want to go with her. And 3 dragons.

Illyrio might have wanted Dany dead at some point, but her dragons change the game. It makes more sense marrying her to Aegon and joining both claims (and armies). Aegon certaninly needs the legitimacy that comes with marrying the last know targaryen.

The idea of Xaro working for/with Illyrio is interesting, but his whole plot during ACOK makes less sense IMO.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

It is ironic how most of the readers including Dany fans abhor the Meereenese Knot. But in fact, should Dany take the bait and get on the ships, she would most probably be killed or enslaved. These so-called boring chapters in Meereen saved her skin.

She had a 10k unsullied army + a freedman army that would want to go with her. And 3 dragons.

Illyrio might have wanted Dany dead at some point, but her dragons change the game. It makes more sense marrying her to Aegon and joining both claims (and armies). Aegon certaninly needs the legitimacy that comes with marrying the last know targaryen.

The idea of Xaro working for/with Illyrio is interesting, but his whole plot during ACOK makes less sense IMO.

[jet199]

A link between Illyrio and the red preists gives me a bad feeling about Dany's red door especially after the There are No Lemon Trees in Braavos theory was resurrected recently.

[Dorian Martell]

While there are no orchards, the idea of a solo lemon tree in a manse funded by a lord (The Sealord who witnessed the Viserys/Arianne pact) seems quite plausable

[Lost Melnibonean]

I would not hurry to say that. Beggar King, for once, was not supposed to live, no more than Dany, according to the fat mans plans.

If truth be told, I did not think Daenerys would survive for long amongst the horselords.

You're assuming that Illyrio intended for Daenerys to die. However, I've assumed that quote suggests that after having Daenerys stay in his manse, Illyrio came to suspect that Daenerys would not survive. Here's a bit more context from his conversation with Tyrion...

The fat man grew pensive. "Daenerys was half a child when she came to me, yet fairer even than my second wife, so lovely I was tempted to claim her for myself. Such a fearful, furtive thing, however, I knew I should get no joy from coupling with her. Instead I summoned a bed-warmer and fucked her vigorously until the madness passed. If truth be told, I did not think Daenerys would survive for long amongst the horselords."

"That did not stop you selling her to Khal Drogo ..."

[Lost Melnibonean]

This alone shows that the fat man does not share all his plans with his men including those as high ranking as Griff. Well, he had a good reason to keep this getting rid of the true Targaryens plan secret from Griff. Otherwise, he might have started to ask questions about the true nature of Young Griff.

I would think that Jon Connington would support "Aegon's" claim absolutely. And if Viserys and/or Daenerys or their progeny needed to die, so be it. Think Stannis & Renly.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Since Viserys and Dany (assassinated on Roberts command) were supposed to die, Drogo was supposed to create chaos and instability. So the GC was never supposed to join with Drogos khalassar and wreak havoc in Westeros.

I respect the textual analysis behind this idea but I think it would have been foolish for the Blackfyres to add to theor enemies given their past failures. I think it's more likely they would have sought allies not enemies.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Once Dany decided to stay in Meereen, Volantis declared war on Dany and started to gather sellswords and slave soldiers for the Fleet. Illyrio/Qarth/Volantis are all slavers and they cannot suffer Dany further damaging the slave trade. I think Illyrio willingly agreed to sign the death sentence of Dany because they did not have the time to wait for her. More importantly, they could no longer the caprices of the young queen as she was obviously proving to be troublesome.

Volantis and the other actors did not need Illyrio to give them the green light to fight Daenerys. Illyrio's ultimate interstate is not in the slave trade. It's putting his son, Daemon Blackfyre's heir on the Iron Throne.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Xaro once offered 30 ships for a dragon. How can he offer 13 ships for free this time? I dont think he can give even a single ship without being paid. The rich men always take more than they give. That is how they become rich. This was obviously a trap.

I think all these ships were paid by Illyrio to make Dany come to Volantis to meet Griff at the right time. If she came, she was going to be fooled into the conspiracy of Illyrio.

Rich men act to preserve their interests. Sure they try to get others to bear the costs and thevrisks but they will act alone if the net benefits outweigh the costs.