The Fat Man's Plan

[jon rhaegar stark]

All Tyrion will have to say is that he killed Tywin Lannister, and he will be in the good graces of Dany. Well, that is if she isn't completely crazy by then.

no matter how bad Tywin lannister is...will she accept a man for just killing his father ...no she must have other reason ...

and thats exactly the point jorah is taking him to her to tell his crimes and get pardoned from her no matter how stupid that plan was

[Julian Rayne]

I don't buy the opening premise. Illyrio did not expect Daenerys to live. This does not mean he wants or needs her dead. It simply means he does not require her alive. Actually, even that's overstating it. It means he did not require her alive.

Your entire theory could be correct or Illyrio may simply be reacting to developments that are out of his control.

[Mithras]

The problem with IlIyrio as the ultimate puppetmaster is the speed in which he can send messages to the other side of the world. Illyrio tells Tyrion that the galley he sent to Asshai will take 2 years to return, so assuming that 6 months is enough to get a message from slaver's bay (Dany is staying) and 7 months to sent messages to Qarth to get the ships, that's over a year for Illyrio to get ships to Dany. He may have been better served by getting the ships in Pentos or somewhere else as Dany has more trust in Illyrio than in XXDx

Well, according to the famous timeline, it took 37 days for Barristan to reach Qarth from Pentos. We know that Illyrio and Tyrion moved extremely slowly. The timeline suggests that it took a month for them to reach Goyan Drohe where Tyrion left Illyrio and joined the gang. Within 30 days, the ship that brought Tyrion from King's Landing to Pentos, which was also said to be making for Asshai, would definitely hit Volantis and possibly Slaver's Bay (New Ghis) too. But I think that ship only delivered the gold meant for Nyessos. I think Illyrio is keeping eye on Dany closer than he claimed and he ordered the preparation of 13 ships after Dany decided to stay in Meereen at the end of ASoS.

[I'm the Party Pooper]

I read it whole, like it very much :)

[fuelpagan_tw]

Excellent theory. You've really put this together well.

The only part I disagree with is Illyrio paying Khal Pono. Illyrio probably told Pono of Dany's location and her situation knowing how Khal Pono would react for the very reasons you suggest. But Dany was supposed to go to Vas Dorthak once Drogo died as custom demands. Yet now she has an army of her own with 3 dragons and is still calling herself Khaleesi. I'm sure the inability to easily sell slaves like they are accustom to doing is fueling Pono's decision as well.

This depends on the type of person Khal Pono is of course. But gold isn't the only way pieces are moved.

[three-eyed monkey]

Good work Paper Waver, very interesting. Great contribution by Frey Family Reunion too.

[Lord Damian]

Illyrio seems to trust only one person other than himself, Varys. Tyrion's death warrant by Cersei and Kings Landing combined with Varys' confirmation to Illyrio that Tyrion is smarter than pretty much anyone of their enemies less a % or 2 makes Tyrion valuable as an asset. I do think that Illryio was being candid and truthful when he tells tyrion that he expected Dany and Viserys to die with the Dothraki (I have been writing for 3 years that Dany, along with the eggs were a bribe not to sack Pentos and it also worked to get rid of the true heirs). They just fed Griff and the Golden Company info on a need to know basis with a little misinformation. They could not exactly say that "hey, we are hoping the Dothraki off the real Targs as this kid is a fake". Especially if Drogo and Dany had succeded and survived with baby "Rheago". they would not step aside for Young Griff/Aegon now, would they? Remember, the Dothraki are takers and destroyers, not givers and builders. Dany was a bribe/ gift to Drogo, not a contract for an army to win someone else a kingdom.

[Mithras]

Bumping this thread to brainstorm about some apparent inconsistencies mentioned in post #36.

First of all, there is some serious confusion about triarch Nyessos. He is an elephant and Illyrio supposedly gave him enough gold to buy him eight times over. What did Illyrio require from Nyessos? By that time, they were assuming that Dany was coming to Volantis and fAegon was supposed to give her the gift of the GC.

We should also remember that the Volantene had no idea why the GC broke their contract with Myr, came to Volantis and camped outside the city; much less they had any idea about fAegon.

There is enmity between Volantis and Dany because of her abolitionist campaign. Did Illyrio require Nyessos to not mess with Dany when she comes and even provide transport to Westeros for her army combined with the GC?

This is the most basic explanation and from the talks of various characters, I get that Volantis was supposed to provide the ships for Westeros after the marriage of fAegon and Dany. I am sure that JonCon knew the same. Yet he thought that the gold Illyrio gave to Nyessos for this job is eight times the normal price. Or with this excessive gold, Nyessos had other tasks unknown to JonCon.

We also learn that the Yunkish envoy (Grazdan mo Eraz - the one whose tokar was burned by Drogon) bought Nyessos as well and the only thing he required from him can be to have Volantis join the war against Yunkai, which they did.

But Volantis also provided the ships to carry the GC West.

In short, what are we to make from Nyessos being bought by both Illyrio and Grazdan?

Another inconsistency is the offer made to the GC by Grazdan to join the war against Dany.

“The Yunkishmen. The envoy that they sent to woo Volantis has already dispatched three free companies to Slaver’s Bay. He wishes us to be the fourth and offers twice what Myr was paying us, plus a slave for every man in the company, ten for every officer, and a hundred choice maidens all for me.”

Bloody hell. “That would require thousands of slaves. Where do the Yunkishmen expect to find so many?”

“In Meereen.”

After the peace signed by the Yunkishmen, they were supposed to lift the siege and leave. However, the Volantene Fleet changes everything. The Yunkishmen did not really want this peace. Probably because they thought Dany would not hold her word. In any case, the Great Masters of Meereen might have been fooled by their rivals (The Wise Masters of Yunkai). After all, we know that there is economic rivalry between the trading cities of SB and the Yunkishmen would not miss a chance to eliminate their rivals in Meereen. Also they should require compensation for their expenses in funding the military campaign to get rid of Dany.

This brings us to the reopening of Daznak’s Pit. The Yunkishmen should find an excuse to not lift the siege and Drogon’s arrival and Dany’s departure provided them what they wanted. However, they should have planned something else to create the excuse to carry on the siege because Drogon’s arrival was unexpected.

I don’t want to imply that they were behind the poisoning because that would not give them a legitimate cause to leave the peace treaty aside and carry the siege on. They should want Dany to be the one to break the agreement and the only thing to do for that is to provoke her, perhaps with the folly fights including Tyrion-Penny vs the lions. Dany was quite shocked to hear that and forbade it immediately. In fact, they got what they wanted because Dany was leaving the pit and she was furious.

Perhaps after that she was expected to close the pits again and that would give the Yunkishmen the excuse they were looking for. In fact, the provocations to Dany did not start in the pit. The night with the Yunkish Masters (slave dancers and so on) were also a great mockery to Dany. The Yunkishmen did everything to force Dany to leave the peace aside.

Another suspicious idea is dropped by George when Dany and Hizzy were going to Daznak’s Pit which I discussed in this thread. I propose that Shakaz was the poisoner and as a part of that poisoning plot, he wanted to create a full scale riot among Dany’s freedmen in the benches by blaming the Harpy for the poisoning of Dany through his agents.

[voodooqueen126]

A very interesting and convincing theory.