Imry Florent did nothing wrong on the Blackwater.

[Nyrhex]

“Harrenhal is strong and well situated.”

“And King’s Landing is not, as we both know perfectly well. While Father plays lion and fawn with the Stark boy, Renly marches up the roseroad. He could be at our gates any day now!”

“The city will not fall in a day. From Harrenhal it is a straight, swift march down the kingsroad. Renly will scarce have unlimbered his siege engines before Father takes him in the rear. His host will be the hammer, the city walls the anvil. It makes a lovely picture.”

Cersei’s green eyes bored into him, wary, yet hungry for the reassurance he was feeding her. “And if Robb Stark marches?”

“Harrenhal is close enough to the fords of the Trident so that Roose Bolton cannot bring the northern foot across to join with the Young Wolf’s horse. Stark cannot march on King’s Landing without taking Harrenhal first, and even with Bolton he is not strong enough to do that.” Tyrion tried his most winning smile. “Meanwhile Father lives off the fat of the riverlands, while our uncle Stafford gathers fresh levies at the Rock.”

Cersei regarded him suspiciously. “How could you know all this? Did Father tell you his intentions when he sent you here?”

“No. I glanced at a map.”

“If you die stupidly, I’m going to feed your body to the goats,” Tyrion threatened as the first load of Stone Crows pushed off from the quay.

Shagga laughed. “The Halfman has no goats.”

“I’ll get some just for you.”

Dawn was breaking, and pale ripples of light shimmered on the surface of the river, shattering under the poles and reforming when the ferry had passed. Timett had taken his Burned Men into the kingswood two days before. Yesterday the Black Ears and Moon Brothers followed, today the Stone Crows.

“Whatever you do, don’t try and fight a battle,” Tyrion said. “Strike at their camps and baggage train. Ambush their scouts and hang the bodies from trees ahead of their line of march, loop around and cut down stragglers. I want night attacks, so many and so sudden that they’ll be afraid to sleep—”

Shagga laid a hand atop Tyrion’s head. “All this I learned from Dolf son of Holger before my beard had grown. This is the way of war in the Mountains of the Moon.”

“The kingswood is not the Mountains of the Moon, and you won’t be fighting Milk Snakes and Painted Dogs. And listen to the guides I’m sending, they know this wood as well as you know your mountains. Heed their counsel and they’ll serve you well.”

“Shagga will listen to the Halfman’s pets,” the clansman promised solemnly.

“No, my lady,” Ser Garlan said. “My lord of Lannister was made to do great deeds, not to sing of them. But for his chain and his wildfire, the foe would have been across the river. And if Tyrion’s wildlings had not slain most of Lord Stannis’s scouts, we would never have been able to take him unawares.”

Both Stannis and Imry fell into the trap set by Tyrion. I think they did plenty of wrongs. If you do not send scouts to check for traps and/or if your scouts are not functioning, it is entirely your fault falling into a trap.

Tyrion is talking shit.

His battle "plan" against Renly is to invest 100% of his resources at fighting Stannis' navy. Stannis took a whole 3 hours (not a full day even) to smash through Tyrion's defense "plan". Tyrion fell, his men fleeing for thier lives, the gates rammed with no way to stop them, and too few men on the other side of the wall to deny them. Even from the Red Keep people were starting flee. Before dawn the city and the castle would have fallen, and the sun would shine on Joffrey's head upon a spike, with Cersei's and Tyrion's on either side keeping him company.

Let's assume that Renly brings 90,000 men to KL. He sets KL under siege. Tywin arrives with less men than Renly has cavalry. Renly splits his army into two groups of 40,000 men, one attacking and destroying Tywin, while the other attacks KL. Renly sits in his tent, eating peaches, and has 10,000 men in reserve. Explain to me how Tyrion is going to fight 40,000 men with 7,000 defenders, when he spent all of his cash on wildfire, and not on weapons and armor, or on scorpions and catapults? How is Tywin going to fight an army twice his size? What if Renly sets 20,000 men to stop the defenders from aiding Tywin, while 70,000 men destroy Tywin's army? Tyrion's explenation to Cersei starts with the assumption that Tywin can simply destroy an army over 4.5 times his own size. This is while Tywin is having difficult time as it is with just passing an army half his size in the Riverlands.

Tyrion has no idea what he is doing. The only reason that he is alive is because Mel killed Renly with a shadow, and so his reinforcements were several times the size of the enemy, and actually had the means to get to KL in time. Tywin was in the Riverlands, and without Mace and his barges would never reach KL in time.

Tywin being the city's actual defense means that Imry is on the clock. Any delays mean that Tywin can show up in the mean time. Imry needs to attack as soon as possible.

Stannis sent scouts. That Vale Clansmen with locals taking out Stannis' scouts (who are also native to the area, but for some reason were all picked off...), does'nt compare to Garlan leading 50,000 men against Stannis' ~16,000. Even if Stannis' scouts had seen the Tyrells, think of the timeline. The reinforcements disembarked from the barges at around noon ("half a day's ride", and they arrive at dusk). Davos and the fleet arrive at ~2-3 PM at the earliest. The scouts take a few hours to get to Stannis. Stannis then has a couple of hours to come up with a plan that would save his army from disaster. Even without considering the defections from the more opportunistic members of the army, Stannis's chances of winning, let alone of taking the city, are slim to none. Even if Stannis gives up on KL; Starting evacuation at the same time that the fleet arrives can still take time. He would also not keep all of his army. That is even without considering that Stannis does'nt know when the fleet would arrive. He could hear that the Tyrells are coming, and the fleet is still nowhere to be seen.

Either way you look at it, Tyrion's defense plan was idiotic. Without Renly dying, the city would fall to him. The wildfire did not stop Stannis, it destoryed both fleets and delayed Stannis by a miserable ~3 hours at the expense of defending the walls. It also could not stop him if he attacked KL instead of laying siege to KL - the chain and the wildfire were not ready at the time.

Consider if Mel was out of the story, and Stannis attacked KL instead of SE? He would arrive before the day of the riots. No chain, no wildfire, Myrcella and Tommen are still there, the population hates the Lannisters and ready to expload, half the Lannister soldiers are hunting in the woods to feed the city. No time for Tywin to come to defend the city, since Tyrion can only send a raven when he sees Stannis' sails coming. Instead, we have the best case scenario. Renly dies, there is notice of Stannis coming, a storm even buys them a few more days, local scouts on the Lannister's side pick off local scouts on Stannis' side with 100% success rate because...reasons of plot, Myrcella is sent off when Stannis' fleet is away and can't intercept, Loras and Tarly make decisions for Mace who is still on his way from Highgarden, Tywin gets a lift by enough barges to carry ~70,000 men at once (think of the sheer scale of it...), and arrive ~3 hours after Stannis' fleet arrives and he can actually try and cross.

That's without the magical part that allows Tyrion to have enough wildfire to burn the fleets.

TL;DR

Stannis and Imry's use of scouts has nearly nothing to do with how the battle unfolded. At most we can play around with how many ships and how many soldiers Stannis could have retreated with, with a max of a full fleet and less than half the army, but no victory and no taking of KL. Tyrion's plan worked despite it not making sense, due to reasons outside of his control, knowledge or understanding. Call it luck, call it plot shield, call it plot device. Same thing. Good planning, it is not.

[Nyrhex]

Tbh I'm always fairly confused by how the Blackwater went down. All in all though imry always came off as a bit of a fool. If I were stannis I would prefer Davos in command even if his methods are slower and less likely to give a quick win. Ignoring the chain was a mistake no matter if the remaining fleet was still strong enough to take the royalists

Davos has no skills to lead a fleet. The chain by itself is not a threat. If it stops them from entering the rush, they can go around. If it cuts the flert in half, the first few lines can still defeat the enemy, while the rest land more troops to the north. The problem is 50,000 Tyrells showing in ~3 hours.

Chronology of the Battle of the Blackwater by chapter (Created with the input of galanix, Red: Estimated time):

ACOK 58 - DAVOS III

• "westering sun", late afternoon

• Fleet enters the Blackwater Rush

Flaming arrows hit the fleet from the castle. A soldier on Cat is the first casualty of the day.

Ships closest to the north bank start to land the landing party.

The Hound leads his first sortie to cut down landed troops near Mud Gate.

Battle joined. First line of battle engages the enemy.

At least three named ships (one being Lord Steffon) break away early from battle and head upstream, (possibly more but not mentioned)

Wildfire explosions.

Southern portion of first two battle lines (30-40 galleys) already upstream of wildfire explosions, so escape being lit (as described in next chapter)

At least 14 ships immediately lit, exact number not mentioned

Davos floating downstream, boom chain is up.

Between ACOK 58 & 59 (Tyrion describes most of these events in Ch. 59 in the past tense, indicating they occurred before Ch. 59) - Indeterminate Time Gap (~10-20min)

• More wildfire explosions, more ships lit.

Ships wrecking along northern and southern shores (near Mud Gate), at least 8 wrecks on northern shore, men washing up on shore.

Sorties sent out of the Mud gate to cut down men washing up on shore.

30-40 of Stannis' ships that were unharmed by the wildfire move upstream.

3 galleys beach near Tourney Grounds, 1 stays out in the Rush flinging pitch from a catapult (Lord Steffon).

Men unloading from beached galleys along with battering ram.

The Hound leads his second and third sorties during this time gap (he led 3 total), returns inside the city.

ACOK 59 - TYRION XIII

• "darkening sky", sunset

• Tyrion mentions (in the past tense) the 30-40 ships that escape the wildfire.

Reports of Stannis's men ramming the King's Gate reach Tyrion at Mud Gate

Hound refuses to fight

Tyrion moves from the battlements at the Mud Gate to the King's Gate, riding along the empty River Row (5-10 minutes? It's a long way).

Tyrion forms his sortie and they depart out the King's Gate.

ACOK 60 - SANSA (occurs simultaneous to the events of ACOK 59 & 61, no time gap)

• Cersei orders Joffrey be taken from the Mud Gate to the Red Keep

ACOK 61 - TYRION XIV (occurs immediately after the end of ACOK 59)

• Tyrion's sortie disperses the ramming party at the King's Gate, moves to the Mud gate..

Tyrion's sortie heads east towards Mud Gate

Hundreds of men traversing bridge of ships.

"The sky was red and orange and garish green", dusk

Garlan's vanguard arrives on southern bank

Tyrion's sortie arrives at bridge of ships, fights for a short time, passes out after already seeing fighting on the south bank.

Bridge of ships falls apart.

Between ACOK 61 & 62 - Indeterminate time gap (~10-30 minutes)

• Lannister sorties (including Lancel) return inside city.

Garlan's vanguard continues fighting with Stannis's host south of the Blackwater

King's Gate being rammed once again.

Joffrey leaves his post at Mud Gate.

City watch begins deserting.

ACOK 62 - SANSA VII

• "embers drifter through the night air", nighttime

• Lancel arrives in Maegor's Holdfast, reports to Cersei that the city is nearly lost, Kettleblack reports fighting south of the river.

Sansa has her encounter with the Hound

Hound flees city.

Tywin's host arrives on northern bank, routs remaining forces from the landing party.

Randyll and Mace on the southern bank behind Garlan, fighting continues until dawn.

Rolland Storm leads rearguard at southern bank.

Stannis retreats to Lyseni galleys on southern bank.

"The first faint hint of dawn was visible in the east", dawn

Bells & reports that the battle is over.

[ShadowCat Rivers]

A very "meta" argument:

I know nothing about battles, naval or ground, "medieval" or modern, and I'm not interested in doing research about it. Reading battle scenes, I focus on the characters' thoughts, feelings and reactions. My only insight about whether a battle plan and/or execution was good or bad comes from the opinions of in-story "experts" or "trustworthy" characters. I suppose there are many readers like me.

So, the question is: Do you think that we are supposed to question everything we are told in-story and to make our own mind about battles or other specialized stuff? Was this the intention of the author? Or, should this be viewed as a critique in the amount of research that the author put into battles and, after being examined by people who know more about this kind of things, it turns out wanting?

[Lykos]

ShadowCat Rivers, that´s actually an interesting question. I think I´m just as clueless as you, when it comes to military knowledge, but I think Martin is not and he likes to build our perception with the help of minor characters.

He is building an image of a competent Davos and incapable Florents on first glance, but on second look it´s not competence but attitude and motivation that seperates them.

Davos in Clash

Had he been admiral, he might have done it all differently. For a start, he would have sent a few of his swiftest ships to probe upriver and see what awaited them, instead of smashing in headlong. When he had suggested as much to Ser Imry, the Lord High Captain had thanked him courteously, but his eyes were not as polite. Who is this lowborn craven? those eyes asked. Is he the one who bought his knighthood with an onion?
With four times as many ships as the boy king, Ser Imry saw no need for caution or deceptive tactics. He had organized the fleet into ten lines of battle, each of twenty ships. The first two lines would sweep up the river to engage and destroy Joffrey's little fleet, or "the boy's toys" as Ser Imry dubbed them, to the mirth of his lordly captains. Those that followed would land companies of archers and spearmen beneath the city walls, and only then join the fight on the river. The smaller, slower ships to the rear would ferry over the main part of Stannis's host from the south bank, protected by Salladhor Saan and his Lyseni, who would stand out in the bay in case the Lannisters had other ships hidden up along the coast, poised to sweep down on their rear.
To be fair, there was reason for Ser Imry's haste. The winds had not used them kindly on the voyage up from Storm's End. They had lost two cogs to the rocks of Shipbreaker Bay on the very day they set sail, a poor way to begin. One of the Myrish galleys had foundered in the Straits of Tarth, and a storm had overtaken them as they were entering the Gullet, scattering the fleet across half the narrow sea. All but twelve ships had finally regrouped behind the sheltering spine of Massey's Hook, in the calmer waters of Blackwater Bay, but not before they had lost considerable time.

Stannis would have reached the Rush days ago.

Nyrhex, that´s a usefull rundown. I´ll link to the thread were you developed it.

Spelling.

[Mithras]

Nyrhex, that is a very good chronology. But I think you seem to forget some important things leading to the Battle of Blackwater.

As Tywin was waiting in Harrenhal and gathering his strength (and Robb’s position was deteriorating because of a second Lannister host was being raised); Stannis and Renly were expected to make a bloody battle. The victor (who would certainly be Renly at normal conditions) would have to heal the wounds and gather their forces and start the attack on KL. That means an attack by Renly would have to wait much longer. In that time the second Lannister army would come into the game and Tywin could have enough force to defend the KL and deal with Robb simultaneously.

Renly’s assassination (which you call a plot gift to Tyrion) hastened an attack to KL greatly and nearly got him killed in the battle. You might want to refer to the council meeting in ACoK where this news was discussed. Stannis gathered enough men to make a serious attack to KL in a short time without any loss. However, the opportunity presented when Highgarden and most of the Reach did not declare for Stannis.

So, Tyrion sent LF with generous offers to Tyrells and prepared his defenses against Stannis only. He made Stannis suffer terrible losses. Even if Stannis had managed to take the city, Varys could easily smuggle out the important people and Stannis could not hope to hold the damaged city with his severely diminished men against the combined force of Tywin and the Tyrells. Therefore, what Tyrion did was the best thing he could do.

[Nyrhex]

Nyrhex, that is a very good chronology. But I think you seem to forget some important things leading to the Battle of Blackwater.

As Tywin was waiting in Harrenhal and gathering his strength (and Robb’s position was deteriorating because of a second Lannister host was being raised); Stannis and Renly were expected to make a bloody battle. The victor (who would certainly be Renly at normal conditions) would have to heal the wounds and gather their forces and start the attack on KL. That means an attack by Renly would have to wait much longer. In that time the second Lannister army would come into the game and Tywin could have enough force to defend the KL and deal with Robb simultaneously.

Renly’s assassination (which you call a plot gift to Tyrion) hastened an attack to KL greatly and nearly got him killed in the battle. You might want to refer to the council meeting in ACoK where this news was discussed. Stannis gathered enough men to make a serious attack to KL in a short time without any loss. However, the opportunity presented when Highgarden and most of the Reach did not declare for Stannis.

So, Tyrion sent LF with generous offers to Tyrells and prepared his defenses against Stannis only. He made Stannis suffer terrible losses. Even if Stannis had managed to take the city, Varys could easily smuggle out the important people and Stannis could not hope to hold the damaged city with his severely diminished men against the combined force of Tywin and the Tyrells. Therefore, what Tyrion did was the best thing he could do.

1. Tyrion dismisses Renly as a real threat. He invests all of the remaining funds into making his chain and wildfire as Stannis declares himself king, when Tyrion still thinks that the two brothers are coming at them from different directions. The Lannisters see Stannis as a threat since AGOT, and Tyrion starts to make the chain in Tyrion III, while only learning that Stannis and Renly are about to fight each other in Tyrion VI. In any case, why invest in defending against Stannis' attempt to cross the Blackwater, if it's at the expense of securing the walls? Renly has 90,000 men, and the city has ~7,000 under-equiped men, now the material went to making the chain. If Renly shows up, or if Stannis overcomes the wildfire (which took him about 3 hours), the city is doomed.

2. If the victor is sure to be Renly, and Renly was about to fight Stannis 2 weeks before Stannis leaves SE, how is Tyrion's plan helpful? Renly gets to KL while Tywin is away, and takes it roughly at the same time as the the Battle of the Blackwater actually took place, or sieges it, with nothing that Tywin can do. Even Tyrion's beliefe that Tywin can come before Renly can unlimber his siege engines fails, since Tywin has several times the distance to make now.

3. Renly's death means that the threat that Tyrion dismissed as nothing to an army of 20,000 men (Tywin's), became the single most important factor in defending against an army of ~21,000 men (Stannis). Tyrion was more afraid of Stannis' 5,000 men, than of Renly's 90,000. Yet the Tyrells joining the Lannisters is the only reason that the city did not fall.

4. Tyrion prepared solely against Stannis when Renly was still in Horn Hill. That is where Renly was when Stannis sends out the ravens, and that is when Tyrion stops all work on weapons and armor for the new recruits, on scorpions and catapults, and spends that money and steel on the chain.

So yes, King's Landing not falling to either Baratheon is 100% pure luck, or plot device. Tyrion's plan would have failed in either scenario, had Mel not been a factor.

[Forfax]

The Wildfire...that's what killed them all, it was never used like that at all before, also the Lion and the Rose alliance taking them in the rear...

[illrede]

The Wildfire...that's what killed them all, it was never used like that at all before, also the Lion and the Rose alliance taking them in the rear...

The Wildfire I think meant that Tyrion was able to hold the city for the window of time that he had to, after everything else is factored in.

[Nyrhex]

The Wildfire I think meant that Tyrion was able to hold the city for the window of time that he had to, after everything else is factored in.

The wildfire and the chain meant that the city lasted less time than it could with the money spent on arming and training more soldiers, and building more siege equipment. Tyrion dismisses the city as good to last more than a day. Stannis has little in his way to even be considered a road bump in ~3-4 hours. The only difference is that nearly two thirds of the fleet are burning.

[E-Ro]

first of all great thread nyrhex, I agree with ally you have said in here.

this is probably going to get a ton of heat but I have to say it.

Davos does not know what the fuck he is talking about. He has no formal training in any sort of military matters, be they at land or sea. He is an uneducated ex smuggler, that does not make him some sort of master admiral. He is a nice guy, and hes no fool, but really, he is not one to plan some sort of strategy for attacking a city at sea. Imry, as a lord of a greathouse, would be educated and trained, a far better choice to lead a fleet then davos. I love davos, hes a great guy. But tactician he is not. I mean he has never even fought in a naval engagement in his life, its said in the chapter ffs.

Well, the last was true enough, he would make no apologies for it. Seaworth had a lordly ring to it, but down deep he was still Davos of Flea Bottom, coming home to his city on its three high hills. He knew as much of ships and sails and shores as any man in the Seven Kingdoms, and had fought his share of desperate fights sword to sword on a wet deck. But to this sort of battle he came a maiden, nervous and afraid. Smugglers do not sound warhorns and raise banners. When they smell danger, they raise sail and run before the wind.

so yeah. Also, I agree with bright blue eyes wrt scouting. Sending "fast" ships to go take a look at things would have been useless, a waste of time.

[Stormland's Fury]

first of all great thread nyrhex, I agree with ally you have said in here.

this is probably going to get a ton of heat but I have to say it.

Davos does not know what the fuck he is talking about. He has no formal training in any sort of military matters, be they at land or sea. He is an uneducated ex smuggler, that does not make him some sort of master admiral. He is a nice guy, and hes no fool, but really, he is not one to plan some sort of strategy for attacking a city at sea. Imry, as a lord of a greathouse, would be educated and trained, a far better choice to lead a fleet then davos. I love davos, hes a great guy. But tactician he is not. I mean he has never even fought in a naval engagement in his life, its said in the chapter ffs.

I really like Davos, but you are right, this had to be said. And most of the impressions about Imry Florent we get from Davos, who is biased and clearly expresses his own subjective opinion.

EDIT: The only thing Davos would have going for him is that he has more experience regarding KL, Blackwater and sailing the Narrow say while a Florent might not know anything about any of those. But still your point stands that Imry simply has a better education regarding warfare, among others.

[illrede]

The wildfire and the chain meant that the city lasted less time than it could with the money spent on arming and training more soldiers, and building more siege equipment. Tyrion dismisses the city as good to last more than a day. Stannis has little in his way to even be considered a road bump in ~3-4 hours. The only difference is that nearly two thirds of the fleet are burning.

Levy quality was an issue. The wildfire was as good as more levies without diluting quality of the overall force in that it truncated the amount of enemy the cities defenders had to fight, while they were fighting.

[The Sleeper]

1. Tyrion dismisses Renly as a real threat. He invests all of the remaining funds into making his chain and wildfire as Stannis declares himself king, when Tyrion still thinks that the two brothers are coming at them from different directions. The Lannisters see Stannis as a threat since AGOT, and Tyrion starts to make the chain in Tyrion III, while only learning that Stannis and Renly are about to fight each other in Tyrion VI. In any case, why invest in defending against Stannis' attempt to cross the Blackwater, if it's at the expense of securing the walls? Renly has 90,000 men, and the city has ~7,000 under-equiped men, now the material went to making the chain. If Renly shows up, or if Stannis overcomes the wildfire (which took him about 3 hours), the city is doomed.

2. If the victor is sure to be Renly, and Renly was about to fight Stannis 2 weeks before Stannis leaves SE, how is Tyrion's plan helpful? Renly gets to KL while Tywin is away, and takes it roughly at the same time as the the Battle of the Blackwater actually took place, or sieges it, with nothing that Tywin can do. Even Tyrion's beliefe that Tywin can come before Renly can unlimber his siege engines fails, since Tywin has several times the distance to make now.

3. Renly's death means that the threat that Tyrion dismissed as nothing to an army of 20,000 men (Tywin's), became the single most important factor in defending against an army of ~21,000 men (Stannis). Tyrion was more afraid of Stannis' 5,000 men, than of Renly's 90,000. Yet the Tyrells joining the Lannisters is the only reason that the city did not fall.

4. Tyrion prepared solely against Stannis when Renly was still in Horn Hill. That is where Renly was when Stannis sends out the ravens, and that is when Tyrion stops all work on weapons and armor for the new recruits, on scorpions and catapults, and spends that money and steel on the chain.

So yes, King's Landing not falling to either Baratheon is 100% pure luck, or plot device. Tyrion's plan would have failed in either scenario, had Mel not been a factor.

Stannis was in Dragonstone with most of the royal fleet within striking distance of King's Landing and they had no idea what he was doing, while at the same time the Lannisters had reliable intelligence that Renly was taking his time and expecting his enemies to fight it out among themselves. Stannis could have struck at any time. Renly would be late in coming.

He'd had no chance to defend against Renly. The best he could do was to deny him access across the river as Renly had no navy. Renly's options would be to cross the river with barges against warships or march north and ford way upriver in which case Tywin would contend with him. In the latter scenario things would be out of Tyrion's hands. In the first scenario (only possible IMO if every in Renly's camp is brainless) the wildfire would have helped.

Should Stannis and Renly actually worked together well Tyrion was fucked in any case, but still the best he could do was to dealy access to the city across the river. Tyrion did no view his odds as good in any case. The only thing he could defend with any degree of reliablity was the river.

As for regarding Stannis like the biggest threat this is not exclusively Tyrion's judgement. The attitude of paying more attention to the person in charge rather than the assets and resources at their disposal seems pervasive among the majority of Westerosi nobility and does not pertain to Stannis exclusively, though it is more glaring in his instance. The example at the outer end is the Vale which is intact, a breadbasket and virtually unassailable, yet is mostly dismissed. But this is a subject which I think requires its own thread.

[Nyrhex]

Stannis was in Dragonstone with most of the royal fleet within striking distance of King's Landing and they had no idea what he was doing, while at the same time the Lannisters had reliable intelligence that Renly was taking his time and expecting his enemies to fight it out among themselves. Stannis could have struck at any time. Renly would be late in coming.

He'd had no chance to defend against Renly. The best he could do was to deny him access across the river as Renly had no navy. Renly's options would be to cross the river with barges against warships or march north and ford way upriver in which case Tywin would contend with him. In the latter scenario things would be out of Tyrion's hands. In the first scenario (only possible IMO if every in Renly's camp is brainless) the wildfire would have helped.

Should Stannis and Renly actually worked together well Tyrion was fucked in any case, but still the best he could do was to dealy access to the city across the river. Tyrion did no view his odds as good in any case. The only thing he could defend with any degree of reliablity was the river.

As for regarding Stannis like the biggest threat this is not exclusively Tyrion's judgement. The attitude of paying more attention to the person in charge rather than the assets and resources at their disposal seems pervasive among the majority of Westerosi nobility and does not pertain to Stannis exclusively, though it is more glaring in his instance. The example at the outer end is the Vale which is intact, a breadbasket and virtually unassailable, yet is mostly dismissed. But this is a subject which I think requires its own thread.

1. So, spend the money and resources on the least of thier problems. A plan that delayed Stannis less time than a properly garrisoned wall and properly armed troops? Because that makes sense?

2. Renly can cross a half day ride away. He can creat a dam from a bunch of barges and cross a mile to the west. He had enough to transport 70,000 men in one go, he can damn well maje a dozen dams.

3. Tywin has 20,000 men. Renly has 90,000. There realy isn't much Tywin can do. If Renly wants he can send 30,000 men to three locations and cross in at least two while one pushes against a smaller foe, or have Tywin try and stop all three with <7,000 men at each spot. Yeah... not seeing it.

4. Wildfire that can't get anywhere, since it spreads downriver. At most a dozen or so barges burn. At most a thousand or so die. The entire enemy fleet would burn at the same time, since the wildfire flows right at them. Renly has 89,000 more, and most would still cross without noticing that there is some fighting to the east.

5. The best he could do was inded to delay acces to the city. Clearly, that failed horribly. It worked to shorten the time that the city could hold. It wasted resources, and men who could be traiend and added to the Lannister's army could not be trained and armed if all the metal and coin are gone.

6. Cersei fears Stannis. She still tried to spend on defenses that work both against him, and against Renly. If Stannis has less troops than Tyrion, why is he more afraid of him than of Renly? Because Renly was taking his time? It's not like they can unspend the coin and metal and time in a scenario that Stannis is defeated. They still spent all of thier resources on defeating the lesser threat (on paper).

[The Sleeper]

1. So, spend the money and resources on the least of thier problems. A plan that delayed Stannis less time than a properly garrisoned wall and properly armed troops? Because that makes sense?

2. Renly can cross a half day ride away. He can creat a dam from a bunch of barges and cross a mile to the west. He had enough to transport 70,000 men in one go, he can damn well maje a dozen dams.

3. Tywin has 20,000 men. Renly has 90,000. There realy isn't much Tywin can do. If Renly wants he can send 30,000 men to three locations and cross in at least two while one pushes against a smaller foe, or have Tywin try and stop all three with <7,000 men at each spot. Yeah... not seeing it.

4. Wildfire that can't get anywhere, since it spreads downriver. At most a dozen or so barges burn. At most a thousand or so die. The entire enemy fleet would burn at the same time, since the wildfire flows right at them. Renly has 89,000 more, and most would still cross without noticing that there is some fighting to the east.

5. The best he could do was inded to delay acces to the city. Clearly, that failed horribly. It worked to shorten the time that the city could hold. It wasted resources, and men who could be traiend and added to the Lannister's army could not be trained and armed if all the metal and coin are gone.

6. Cersei fears Stannis. She still tried to spend on defenses that work both against him, and against Renly. If Stannis has less troops than Tyrion, why is he more afraid of him than of Renly? Because Renly was taking his time? It's not like they can unspend the coin and metal and time in a scenario that Stannis is defeated. They still spent all of thier resources on defeating the lesser threat (on paper).

1. Spend money on the problem most likely to appear first and the one he can do something about. If Stannis kills him he doesn't need to worry about Renly.

Did these barges transport the entire army? Or just Tywin? Not sure about that part, but only Tywin's right wing was north of the river.

I never said they could defend in such a scenario. I only said it was out of Tyrion's hand. Otherwise yeah, there would be little they'd be able to do in such a case.

It can be applied upriver however and not all at once. Tyrion also had warships to stop the barges. There would be no guarantee of success for Tyrion, but he would take a significant bite of Renly's forces. These losses would be needless on Renly's part when he could go upriver where the warships would be reluctant or unable to go.

I don't see how that works. There was no mention of lack of equipment for the men, the walls being in bad repair, or absense of war machines. The three huge trebuchets were a prominent feaure on the battle. The complaints were about the quality and the morale of the troops and the fact that they couldn't trust or handle the ones they had. The defences were not overwhelmed, it were the defenders that broke, which is one of the reasons Tyrion wanted to keep the fight away form the city. He needed experienced troops and officers and money wouldn't conjure them out of thin air. As for spending Tyrion just requisitioned everything he needed.

As I said this is a bigger issue than the battle of Blackwater. For some reason Cersei seems to believe that Tywin's 20000 could have stood up to Renly's 10000. As for the paritculars, yes the chain itself would have been useless on Renly, but focusing on the river and trying to impact the greatest losses they could there seems to me their best bet and as previously stated, they had every reason to believe that Stannis was going to strike first.

Nobody's claiming that preventing the river crossing was a sure thing or that it would grant a decisive advantage, nor did Tyrion expect it too. Under the circumstances however it made a difference. Suppose there was no chain and no wild fire on the river. Stannis's fleet overwhelms Jofftey's and begins to ferry Stannis' troops across en masse. You get mulitple attacks on multiple gates and against troops the sorties cannot possibly dislodge. The defenders break and Stannis gains access to the city. Tywin and the Tyrells arrive against a much greater number of Stannis' troops on the north side with the Tyrells on the south side and 100 warships between them and where they needed to be.

You claim that the money spent on wildfire and the workhours and material spent on the chain would make more of a difference than they did as it were. To a certain degree these things were done. The goldcloaks were trippled in number and Tyrion added close to a thousand sellswords. The walls were repaired and reinforced and war machines built. How many more troops do you believe could become available with those resources. Who would train them, how much time would it take and could they be trained in time? How many would it take to make a difference? The troops they already had broke not because the city was breached, but because Joffrey went back to the Red Keep. The problem was moralle not numbers.

You could claim that they could have raised and armed ten thousand more soldiers ready to defend King's Landing to the last man and I could tell you that the majority of the men who were inclined and/or eperinced in fighting had already gone to join the various armies that had formed around the kingdom, that all the men that would join voluntarily had already joined the goldcloaks and any further troops would need to be forcibly conscripted and that they lacked the personell and time to train and lead them properly. But all this would be speculation.

[Nyrhex]

1. Spend money on the problem most likely to appear first and the one he can do something about. If Stannis kills him he doesn't need to worry about Renly.

Did these barges transport the entire army? Or just Tywin? Not sure about that part, but only Tywin's right wing was north of the river.

I never said they could defend in such a scenario. I only said it was out of Tyrion's hand. Otherwise yeah, there would be little they'd be able to do in such a case.

It can be applied upriver however and not all at once. Tyrion also had warships to stop the barges. There would be no guarantee of success for Tyrion, but he would take a significant bite of Renly's forces. These losses would be needless on Renly's part when he could go upriver where the warships would be reluctant or unable to go.

I don't see how that works. There was no mention of lack of equipment for the men, the walls being in bad repair, or absense of war machines. The three huge trebuchets were a prominent feaure on the battle. The complaints were about the quality and the morale of the troops and the fact that they couldn't trust or handle the ones they had. The defences were not overwhelmed, it were the defenders that broke, which is one of the reasons Tyrion wanted to keep the fight away form the city. He needed experienced troops and officers and money wouldn't conjure them out of thin air. As for spending Tyrion just requisitioned everything he needed.

As I said this is a bigger issue than the battle of Blackwater. For some reason Cersei seems to believe that Tywin's 20000 could have stood up to Renly's 10000. As for the paritculars, yes the chain itself would have been useless on Renly, but focusing on the river and trying to impact the greatest losses they could there seems to me their best bet and as previously stated, they had every reason to believe that Stannis was going to strike first.

Nobody's claiming that preventing the river crossing was a sure thing or that it would grant a decisive advantage, nor did Tyrion expect it too. Under the circumstances however it made a difference. Suppose there was no chain and no wild fire on the river. Stannis's fleet overwhelms Jofftey's and begins to ferry Stannis' troops across en masse. You get mulitple attacks on multiple gates and against troops the sorties cannot possibly dislodge. The defenders break and Stannis gains access to the city. Tywin and the Tyrells arrive against a much greater number of Stannis' troops on the north side with the Tyrells on the south side and 100 warships between them and where they needed to be.

You claim that the money spent on wildfire and the workhours and material spent on the chain would make more of a difference than they did as it were. To a certain degree these things were done. The goldcloaks were trippled in number and Tyrion added close to a thousand sellswords. The walls were repaired and reinforced and war machines built. How many more troops do you believe could become available with those resources. Who would train them, how much time would it take and could they be trained in time? How many would it take to make a difference? The troops they already had broke not because the city was breached, but because Joffrey went back to the Red Keep. The problem was moralle not numbers.

You could claim that they could have raised and armed ten thousand more soldiers ready to defend King's Landing to the last man and I could tell you that the majority of the men who were inclined and/or eperinced in fighting had already gone to join the various armies that had formed around the kingdom, that all the men that would join voluntarily had already joined the goldcloaks and any further troops would need to be forcibly conscripted and that they lacked the personell and time to train and lead them properly. But all this would be speculation.

1. LoL.

2. All the army. Mace and Tarly were with Tywin there. They were with him at the Battle. Tywin led the northern group, Mace the southern, Tarly the center, Garlan the Van. They have to, or there is no point in talking about barges as the reason why Tywin arrived so fast. If they can leg it while he is taking a boat, it's the same time as walking.

3. So, spend the money on defending against the guy with 5,000 men, instead of taking it and running to Braavos or the Summer Isles? What's the point?

4. Walk this logic with me. The river goes east. It can hold 20 ships together at most. Wildfire hits first line, then goes downriver, back at the rest of the lannister fleet. How do you unclusterfuck this clusterfuck? Renly gets to half a day's ride, sinks a bunch of barges a mile downriver, creating a dam. How are the ships going to do anything? Disembark the few soldiers and oarsmen to fight on land? They would be slaughtered, and Renly would lose a handfull of men. Pointless.

5. There was. When the smiths tell Tyrion that they were ordered to make arms and armor, he tells them to stop. Work only on the chain. Fishermen two days from KL were still not sure if it was complete or not. There is no time, or metal, or coin, for anything but the chain. The three trebuchets were meant to have scorpions and catapults by the hundreds beside them. All work stopped, since they need the metal for the chain. The entire plan was to stop Stannis at the river. The Hound made 3 sorties, losing half his men. The same is to be assumed with Swan. The 4th one led by Tyrion is nearly wiped out. The defenders have no way to stop Stannis' men from reaching the gates. They have no scorpions to add firepower. They have little armor or weapons. And the damage to the gate and to the sortie party was done by less than 5,000 men who were partially burned or soaked from nearly drowning. What do you think would happen in the next couple of hours if Stannis would have used the 30-40 galleys he still had upriver to ferry 16,000 others?

6. Who said that Stannis would attack KL, or first, or that Renly would not defeat him at SE and then come to take KL while Tywin is in the west? What use is the chain? If they are waiting for Tywin to save them, and the chian and wildfire got them 3 hours of delay at the expense of thier fleet, all the coin and metal for preparations, and ~5,000 soldiers and sailors and oarsmen who burned on thier fleet as bait. It's a pointless expense. By any criteria.

7. It did make a difference, it meant that KL can wait even less time than Tyrion thought it could hold. No chain and wilfire, and more soldiers (properly armed and armored) and scorpions on the walls. Maybe they would actually held a day or two this time? Maybe they can hold more than two miserable gates? AND The Tyrells would get there in ~3 hours. Stannis won't even ferry half his army by that time, let alone he would still be facing the gates. Half fighting 50,000 Tyrells, half fighting the defenders and 20,000 Lannisters.

8.The arms and armor were meant for these new recruits. Logically, if you take all the metla and tell the smiths to work on the chain only and it lasts until 2 days at least before the battle, that means that Tom gets the breastplate, Joe gets the helmet, Bob gets 3 arrows while Will gets 4, etc etc. No more coin means that you can't add to the ~7,000 you have. It's a city twice the size of Lannisport, and that one sent troops to Tywin's army, and still managed to pop out 10,000 to Stafford. Population is not the problem, it's the money and equipment that are lacking. War machines were not built other than the three that were aimed at the river. Hundreds of scorpions and catapults require metal. None is available. The 4,000 extra recruits were hired with very short notice. Tyrion spent some time in KL, and could have recruited more, especially with added population from the refugees. Joffrey went back inside because the battle is lost. Lancel thinking that they can hold the gates because the lunatic shooting bolts at his own people was going to raise moralle? Are you kidding me?

9. And I can tell you that we see the men being raised short time before Tyrion arrives are no where near what the city can supply, there is no problem to add more instead of spending cash on a gimmick that cannot work. They had months to prepare, they had metal and coin, and then Tyrion shows up and thinks that he knows war. I can supply the quotes but now this is turning to a Tyrion thread instead of an Imry one, I think, and I have a paper to work on. Go over Tyrion III and VI, the Blackwater chapters, and you see that it was a stupid plan that only worked because of dumb luck/plot reasons, not actual military sense.

[Stormland's Fury]

This thread opened Pandora's box...

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

Consider if Mel was out of the story, and Stannis attacked KL instead of SE? He would arrive before the day of the riots. No chain, no wildfire, Myrcella and Tommen are still there, the population hates the Lannisters and ready to expload, half the Lannister soldiers are hunting in the woods to feed the city. No time for Tywin to come to defend the city, since Tyrion can only send a raven when he sees Stannis' sails coming. Instead, we have the best case scenario. Renly dies, there is notice of Stannis coming, a storm even buys them a few more days, local scouts on the Lannister's side pick off local scouts on Stannis' side with 100% success rate because...reasons of plot, Myrcella is sent off when Stannis' fleet is away and can't intercept, Loras and Tarly make decisions for Mace who is still on his way from Highgarden, Tywin gets a lift by enough barges to carry ~70,000 men at once (think of the sheer scale of it...), and arrive ~3 hours after Stannis' fleet arrives and he can actually try and cross.

Considering all of that Stannis would have had a better chance attacking the city without Renly's men, he just didn't know what the conditions in the city were like. Cressen and Davos really overestimated how difficult it would have been to take King's Landing.

TBH the Lannisters got so much plot armour in the early books:

1. Roose Bolton is an inept commander on the Green Fork, his soldiers are so tired they can barely fight.

2. Tywin is cut off from the west, with a huge host, whilst the Riverlords use scorched earth tactics, and the BwB attacking his scouts and foragers, yet his army still feeds itself easily.

3. Balon Greyjoy is an idiot, and attacks the one side that could ally with him, instead of the rich and undefended west.

4. Renly dies.

5. Mace Tyrell happily betroths his daughter to Joffrey, oblivious to what he is, even though news spreads faster than the pale mare in westeros.

6. Rider's reach Tywin just in time for him to save the city.

7. Renly's ghost actually works (why would anyone ever assume it was Renly? The men should be pissed that someone is wearing their King's armour), not a huge factor, but still made the battle go worse for Stannis.

8. What you said about barging 80,000 men down the river, even though said barges were never mentioned before.

9. Tyrion's Clansmen effectively harry Stannis' scouts, despite there being less than 100 of them, and many of Stannis' Stormlords knowing the Kingswood as well as any guides Tyrion could have given them.

10. There happens to be an insane amount of Wildfire burried under King's Landing.

[Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren]

Considering all of that Stannis would have had a better chance attacking the city without Renly's men, he just didn't know what the conditions in the city were like. Cressen and Davos really overestimated how difficult it would have been to take King's Landing.

TBH the Lannisters got so much plot armour in the early books:

1. Roose Bolton is an inept commander on the Green Fork, his soldiers are so tired they can barely fight.

2. Tywin is cut off from the west, with a huge host, whilst the Riverlords use scorched earth tactics, and the BwB attacking his scouts and foragers, yet his army still feeds itself easily.

3. Balon Greyjoy is an idiot, and attacks the one side that could ally with him, instead of the rich and undefended west.

4. Renly dies.

5. Mace Tyrell happily betroths his daughter to Joffrey, oblivious to what he is, even though news spreads faster than the pale mare in westeros.

6. Rider's reach Tywin just in time for him to save the city.

7. Renly's ghost actually works (why would anyone ever assume it was Renly? The men should be pissed that someone is wearing their King's armour), not a huge factor, but still made the battle go worse for Stannis.

8. What you said about barging 80,000 men down the river, even though said barges were never mentioned before.

9. Tyrion's Clansmen effectively harry Stannis' scouts, despite there being less than 100 of them, and many of Stannis' Stormlords knowing the Kingswood as well as any guides Tyrion could have given them.

10. There happens to be an insane amount of Wildfire burried under King's Landing.

11. A storm delays Stannis attack to King's Landing which allows the city to be saved just in time.

[Lion of the West]

Considering all of that Stannis would have had a better chance attacking the city without Renly's men, he just didn't know what the conditions in the city were like. Cressen and Davos really overestimated how difficult it would have been to take King's Landing.

TBH the Lannisters got so much plot armour in the early books:

1. Roose Bolton is an inept commander on the Green Fork, his soldiers are so tired they can barely fight.

2. Tywin is cut off from the west, with a huge host, whilst the Riverlords use scorched earth tactics, and the BwB attacking his scouts and foragers, yet his army still feeds itself easily.

3. Balon Greyjoy is an idiot, and attacks the one side that could ally with him, instead of the rich and undefended west.

4. Renly dies.

5. Mace Tyrell happily betroths his daughter to Joffrey, oblivious to what he is, even though news spreads faster than the pale mare in westeros.

6. Rider's reach Tywin just in time for him to save the city.

7. Renly's ghost actually works (why would anyone ever assume it was Renly? The men should be pissed that someone is wearing their King's armour), not a huge factor, but still made the battle go worse for Stannis.

8. What you said about barging 80,000 men down the river, even though said barges were never mentioned before.

9. Tyrion's Clansmen effectively harry Stannis' scouts, despite there being less than 100 of them, and many of Stannis' Stormlords knowing the Kingswood as well as any guides Tyrion could have given them.

10. There happens to be an insane amount of Wildfire burried under King's Landing.

Disagree with most but not all.

1. Roose was not indept as he managed to avoid being completely butchered when he almost entirely lacked horse against the Westerland army which included a great deal of heavy horse.

2. The Riverlands are very rich and the Lannisters seems to have kept moving as well, thus Kevan's remark on how they marched on the Riverlords one by one after Edmure allowed them to scatter to defend their homes.

3.Old men fight old wars. Balon was essentially re-fighting his rebellion against Eddard and Robert. That fits well with is character.

4. He does indeed.

5.Considering that Eddard was shocked and Tywin and Kevan grossly disappointed with Joffrey shows that the idea that everyone knew about Joffrey's character is incorrect. Mace, making a case for his name, seems like the perfect guy not to know anything about it.

6. That is a plot gift but wouldn't really have mattered much for the war. Tommen was at Rosby and safe away from Stannis. Even if Stannis had taken the capital Tommen would've just been crowned king and married to Margaery in Joffrey's stead.

7. You go with the idea that most people in Westeros are rational and not supersticious (I know about the spelling), which I think is incorrect.

8. I call that "confiscating every vessel that I can find along a major river in an age where travel by water is the fastest way to travel". At least that's what I personally make of it.

9. Are they really less than 100? I thought they were more but in that case that is rather difficult to explain.

10. That's called "Aerys wanted to torch the whole freaking city before Jaime killed him". I'd say that's backstory becoming relevant to the storyline and not plot armor.

11. Grace of the Seven?