The Curious Case of The Dragon Prince and The Winter Rose 4

[Modesty Lannister]

On the one hand, the "RT = MR and Ned knew it" theory offers a good explanation as to why Benjen was so keen to take the Black straight after Rob's Rebellion. He too being in on the conspiracy.

However, how does all this explain the fight at the ToJ? The KG were (seemingly) under orders to prevent - to the death - Ned from reaching his sister and/or nephew. Why? Whose orders, if this was part of RT's grand conspiracy all along? Unless Ned only found out the truth and 'defected' after the fight, when he finally spoke to the dying Lyanna? (The original plan being for someone else to raise Jon?)

I have already wrote about this. Everybody just assumes the KG was there to protect Lyanna while RT was fighting RB at the Trident. However, Mad king suspected RT's loyalties even before the Harrenhall tourney (that's in the books). The king summoned RT to KL after he took Lyanna. Elia and her kids were effectively king's hostages at the time just like Jaime was a hostage keeping Tywin at bay. I think the king sent the KG to the ToJ to keep Lyanna hostage, not to protect her. That would certainly assure his son's loyalty and effort against RR. KG are ordered by the king, not the crown prince. As for Benjen, I think he rode with MR to the Winterfell feast and I suspect he may be someone within MRs army. Everyone thinks he is Coldhands. That might be, but he might be with Mance now.

[Armstark]

I have already wrote about this. Everybody just assumes the KG was there to protect Lyanna while RT was fighting RB at the Trident. However, Mad king suspected RT's loyalties even before the Harrenhall tourney (that's in the books). The king summoned RT to KL after he took Lyanna. Elia and her kids were effectively king's hostages at the time just like Jaime was a hostage keeping Tywin at bay. I think the king sent the KG to the ToJ to keep Lyanna hostage, not to protect her. That would certainly assure his son's loyalty and effort against RR. KG are ordered by the king, not the crown prince. As for Benjen, I think he rode with MR to the Winterfell feast and I suspect he may be someone within MRs army. Everyone thinks he is Coldhands. That might be, but he might be with Mance now.

Why would they still hold her hostage after Rhaegar and Aerys are dead? To what end? If the order was 'hold her hostage to ensure my son's loyalty' that order's purpose is defeated after the deaths of Aerys and Rhaegar. The three knights would have no reason at all to still hold her hostage. Not to mention that one of the knights is Rhaegar's closest friend.

[Modesty Lannister]

Why would they still hold her hostage after Rhaegar and Aerys are dead? To what end? If the order was 'hold her hostage to ensure my son's loyalty' that order's purpose is defeated after the deaths of Aerys and Rhaegar. The three knights would have no reason at all to still hold her hostage. Not to mention that one of the knights is Rhaegar's closest friend.

Do we know that the knights of the KG at the ToJ know king Aerys is dead? Or Rhaegar for that matter. We don't know that from the books and I highly doubt they do know what happened in KL. I think it the words of Ser Arthur Dayne are significant. He said - And now it begins. What begins? The fight? Something else?

[Metopheles]

The better question is, how could some youngsters kill the supposedly best knights/fighters/warriors whatever you call them?

Dayne, Rhaegar, Whent, ... the KG had to be good fighters to become KG in the first place.. how ?? This is incredible. In all meanings of this word.

Ned the slayer suddenly becomes Ned the honourable. Getting overwhelmed by some random Lannister guards and Jaime..

Chewbacca theory, I say you, Chewbacca theory. It doesn't fit.

to Mance's helmet... I think it is not a symbol to any Bloodraven or Targaryen or something.

It is a symbol for the Herrmans saga. It is a german folks tale (less tale than more a real fact) about Arminius (Hermann) who was a german tribesman but with roman education, especially in warfare and swordsmanship. He defeated the roman legions and is somewhat of the Father of the Nation. He, supposedly, wore a winged helmet. It is a symbol for a man that was raised by the "enemy" and united the tribes to fight against the enemy. Oh and a wall was involved, the Limes( not the fruits :P). The nice little gift the romans brought into germany ;)

Furthermore, the winged helmet is associated with Vercingetorix, the french gallic equivalent, kinda.. A man that fought against the romans.

Oh and Hermes. the roman god with winged shoes..weird, but it is his symbol, a winged helmet. Hermes lead to Arminius, lead to Hermann.

You can take the romans as Targaryens/seven kingdoms overall and the german tribes as the wildlings. The Wall is then the Limes. GRRM even stated that the Wall was inspired by Hadrian's wall in UK, a similar defense wall against "wildlings".

So, for all the symbol-love, I think the winged helmet is only a symbol for Hermann/Arminius.

[Modesty Lannister]

The better question is, how could some youngsters kill the supposedly best knights/fighters/warriors whatever you call them?

Dayne, Rhaegar, Whent, ... the KG had to be good fighters to become KG in the first place.. how ?? This is incredible. In all meanings of this word.

Ned the slayer suddenly becomes Ned the honourable. Getting overwhelmed by some random Lannister guards and Jaime..

Chewbacca theory, I say you, Chewbacca theory. It doesn't fit.

to Mance's helmet... I think it is not a symbol to any Bloodraven or Targaryen or something.

It is a symbol for the Herrmans saga. It is a german folks tale (less tale than more a real fact) about Arminius (Hermann) who was a german tribesman but with roman education, especially in warfare and swordsmanship. He defeated the roman legions and is somewhat of the Father of the Nation. He, supposedly, wore a winged helmet. It is a symbol for a man that was raised by the "enemy" and united the tribes to fight against the enemy. Oh and a wall was involved, the Limes( not the fruits :P). The nice little gift the romans brought into germany ;)

Furthermore, the winged helmet is associated with Vercingetorix, the french gallic equivalent, kinda.. A man that fought against the romans.

Oh and Hermes. the roman god with winged shoes..weird, but it is his symbol, a winged helmet. Hermes lead to Arminius, lead to Hermann.

You can take the romans as Targaryens/seven kingdoms overall and the german tribes as the wildlings. The Wall is then the Limes. GRRM even stated that the Wall was inspired by Hadrian's wall in UK, a similar defense wall against "wildlings".

So, for all the symbol-love, I think the winged helmet is only a symbol for Hermann/Arminius.

The first part. That's how I think. Nothing adds up. Especially, the oddest bit of all - Ned taking the AD's sword to her sister and her jumping off a tower later. WTF? I think that events of ToJ and Daynes are non-sensical as they stand now. And they are very important somehow. As for Hermes theory, I think it deserves a special thread. I think that RT likes to put clues all around and see if anyone, ANYONE would add the dots. It's like a game. His performance as Abel in Winterfell cries RT, but no one sees anything. GRRM is very clever diverting us to false Arya and how no one sees the colour of her eyes. But, she is not the only one no one recognises. It boils down to - if you don't expect someone to belong to a certain class or geographical area, he can hide in plain sight and no one will look twice.

[Black Crow]

On the one hand, the "RT = MR and Ned knew it" theory offers a good explanation as to why Benjen was so keen to take the Black straight after Rob's Rebellion. He too being in on the conspiracy.

However, how does all this explain the fight at the ToJ? The KG were (seemingly) under orders to prevent - to the death - Ned from reaching his sister and/or nephew. Why? Whose orders, if this was part of RT's grand conspiracy all along? Unless Ned only found out the truth and 'defected' after the fight, when he finally spoke to the dying Lyanna? (The original plan being for someone else to raise Jon?)

Very much a question argued to death with no real evidence of consensus.

To some in another place it is proof positive that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and rightful king of Westeros pure and simple.

Others point to GRRM's statement that they were obeying orders, which he implies but does not actually say were given to them by Rhaegar.

What those orders were and who gave them we don't know but GRRM said that their orders had to be obeyed even if they didn't like them and to my mind their speech as recalled in Ned's dream indicates that they were indeed unhappy that obeying those orders meant they had failed their king by being in the wrong place when they were needed, and now they intended to die fighting.

As to the manner of their dying, I've always reckoned that arrows may have played a part.

[Black Crow]

As to the Winterfell crypts there's an unhealthy interest in them that goes far beyond picking up a few rusty swords, and Lyanna's tomb isn't it. To the die-hard believers there might be a mouldy parchment, or a Targaryen wedding cloak or even Rhaegar's harp all proving that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and rightful king of Westeros (as if such relics would really mean anything) but that doesn't work for Mance.

I don't believe for a moment that Mance is Rhaegar but even if he was, why would he need to find "proof" of Jon's legitimacy?

As for Mance as Mance Rayder, he's got no interest in "proving" Jon's legitimacy so if he's after something in the crypts its got to be something further down in those forbidden lower levels and that may be where a connection to Bryn Blackwood could come in

[Modesty Lannister]

As to the Winterfell crypts there's an unhealthy interest in them that goes far beyond picking up a few rusty swords, and Lyanna's tomb isn't it. To the die-hard believers there might be a mouldy parchment, or a Targaryen wedding cloak or even Rhaegar's harp all proving that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and rightful king of Westeros (as if such relics would really mean anything) but that doesn't work for Mance.

I don't believe for a moment that Mance is Rhaegar but even if he was, why would he need to find "proof" of Jon's legitimacy?

As for Mance as Mance Rayder, he's got no interest in "proving" Jon's legitimacy so if he's after something in the crypts its got to be something further down in those forbidden lower levels and that may be where a connection to Bryn Blackwood could come in

If RT=MR he would go to the crypt to pay respects to Lyanna as Robert did when he arrived to WInterfell and to get some weaponry he and the women could not carry inside the castle as a band of singers. So, I see no mystery there what-so-ever.

[Black Crow]

Nah, there's more to it than that and Lady Dustin seems to know something too.

[Modesty Lannister]

Nah, there's more to it than that and Lady Dustin seems to know something too.

The only thing that comes to mind would be a secret tunnel that leads out of the castle.

[setmyheartafire]

As to the Winterfell crypts there's an unhealthy interest in them that goes far beyond picking up a few rusty swords, and Lyanna's tomb isn't it. To the die-hard believers there might be a mouldy parchment, or a Targaryen wedding cloak or even Rhaegar's harp all proving that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and rightful king of Westeros (as if such relics would really mean anything) but that doesn't work for Mance.

I don't believe for a moment that Mance is Rhaegar but even if he was, why would he need to find "proof" of Jon's legitimacy?

As for Mance as Mance Rayder, he's got no interest in "proving" Jon's legitimacy so if he's after something in the crypts its got to be something further down in those forbidden lower levels and that may be where a connection to Bryn Blackwood could come in

I have to admit that I think the idea of Jon claiming ancestry and/or legitimacy by yanking a wedding cloak or a harp or a royal decree out of a tomb is pretty weak.

All three of those things can be faked so they would "prove" nothing to people, especially people who already have good reasons for their existing alliances. Why would a cloak, a paper, or a musical instrument convince them that Jon is the son of Rhaegar? These people are already fighting a war against a king that they believe to be a false bastard with the wrong "cloak" and illegal "papers" declaring his name.

If Jon's dreams are calling him to the crypt I don't think it is to prove his legitimacy.

Certainly any of those items could be there to reveal the truth to Jon. But not to the realm.

And I am firmly of the opinion he really is Rhaegar's. But the tomb containing evidence that will rile nations is too much for me to believe as a reader.

It could be that something else is in the crypts. Something ancient and useful v. the Others. And that could be Mance's interest in Winterfell too. The horn? Maybe there are three. Lightbringer? Maybe Bran the Builder protected it there.

Of course, if Mance is Rhaegar like some of you believe then he could have just been visiting Lyanna's tomb.

[Essan]

I have already wrote about this. Everybody just assumes the KG was there to protect Lyanna while RT was fighting RB at the Trident. However, Mad king suspected RT's loyalties even before the Harrenhall tourney (that's in the books). The king summoned RT to KL after he took Lyanna. Elia and her kids were effectively king's hostages at the time just like Jaime was a hostage keeping Tywin at bay. I think the king sent the KG to the ToJ to keep Lyanna hostage, not to protect her. That would certainly assure his son's loyalty and effort against RR. KG are ordered by the king, not the crown prince. As for Benjen, I think he rode with MR to the Winterfell feast and I suspect he may be someone within MRs army. Everyone thinks he is Coldhands. That might be, but he might be with Mance now.

Why would they still hold her hostage after Rhaegar and Aerys are dead? To what end? If the order was 'hold her hostage to ensure my son's loyalty' that order's purpose is defeated after the deaths of Aerys and Rhaegar. The three knights would have no reason at all to still hold her hostage. Not to mention that one of the knights is Rhaegar's closest friend.

The better question is, how could some youngsters kill the supposedly best knights/fighters/warriors whatever you call them?

Dayne, Rhaegar, Whent, ... the KG had to be good fighters to become KG in the first place.. how ?? This is incredible. In all meanings of this word.

Ned the slayer suddenly becomes Ned the honourable. Getting overwhelmed by some random Lannister guards and Jaime..

Chewbacca theory, I say you, Chewbacca theory. It doesn't fit.

Very much a question argued to death with no real evidence of consensus.

To some in another place it is proof positive that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and rightful king of Westeros pure and simple.

Others point to GRRM's statement that they were obeying orders, which he implies but does not actually say were given to them by Rhaegar.

What those orders were and who gave them we don't know but GRRM said that their orders had to be obeyed even if they didn't like them and to my mind their speech as recalled in Ned's dream indicates that they were indeed unhappy that obeying those orders meant they had failed their king by being in the wrong place when they were needed, and now they intended to die fighting.

As to the manner of their dying, I've always reckoned that arrows may have played a part.

So basically, RT = MR doesn't explain the events at the ToJ any more than any other theory - and none are convincing or without flaws.

Ergo, we don't yet know the true story of what happened and some pertinent facts are likely missing. Which is stating the obvious, I know. But equally, this means that what we so far have heard of the events at the ToJ can neither be used to prove nor deny any given theory, which must satnd (or fall) on more reliable evidence.

And the upshot of all this, is that when we do find out what really happened at the ToJ, a lot of other things will be seen in a very different light. A quite possibly one or two theories shot down in flames.

btw anyone else ever wondered whether what was really being guarded at the ToJ was a dragon's egg?

[Modesty Lannister]

So basically, RT = MR doesn't explain the events at the ToJ any more than any other theory - and none are convincing or without flaws.

Ergo, we don't yet know the true story of what happened and some pertinent facts are likely missing. Which is stating the obvious, I know. But equally, this means that what we so far have heard of the events at the ToJ can neither be used to prove nor deny any given theory, which must satnd (or fall) on more reliable evidence.

And the upshot of all this, is that when we do find out what really happened at the ToJ, a lot of other things will be seen in a very different light. A quite possibly one or two theories shot down in flames.

btw anyone else ever wondered whether what was really being guarded at the ToJ was a dragon's egg?

I agree ToJ is one of the key events in this mind riddle. We just don't know enough.

[Hrafntýr]

btw anyone else ever wondered whether what was really being guarded at the ToJ was a dragon's egg?

Yeah, I mentioned upthread, or in a previous one, that this was the only "proof" of Targ lineage that I could see being hidden in the crypts of WF, with the implication that this was with Lyanna at the ToJ. But I also said I saw this as highly improbable. I just can't really see Ned traipsing down to Starfall and then back up to WF with Lyanna's remains, a bouncing baby boy, and a dragon's egg. My gut feeling is that its something Northern, not Targ, that is in the crypts and is significant to both Jon and Mance, and possibly Lady Dustin. Sure, the Horn, the original Ice, the crown of the King in the North, something left by Bran along the way. But dragon egg strikes me as unlikely. Though from what do Ice Dragons hatch?

[Metopheles]

The only thing that comes to mind would be a secret tunnel that leads out of the castle.

Isn't there one ? Crypts could at least have tunnels for fresh air, like in ancient egyptian crypts or roman crypts. Otherwise it would be quite hard to stay there for a long time, like Bran did and others too.

And the crypts for Dustin: She wanted to look to the bastard that got her with child before wedding her. And she wanted to play a game of sorts with Theon, and us. And Mance.. maybe the swords. and yeah, the tunnel. And Lyanna. And Dragon eggs. And maybe because of the Bael the bard thing, maybe where the winterfell gal lies and the son.. Thousands of possibilities, really

[Metopheles]

As for Hermes theory, I think it deserves a special thread. I think that RT likes to put clues all around and see if anyone, ANYONE would add the dots. It's like a game. His performance as Abel in Winterfell cries RT, but no one sees anything. GRRM is very clever diverting us to false Arya and how no one sees the colour of her eyes. But, she is not the only one no one recognises. It boils down to - if you don't expect someone to belong to a certain class or geographical area, he can hide in plain sight and no one will look twice.

Hermann theory, Arminius theory. Hermes not so much. But I agree. Maybe in later installments of this "curious case" threads. This theory has a lot of potential.

And I totally agree with the second part. the clues.

People just recently found out that the MMD words are a real prophecy that has fulfilled it's first part. "When the sun rises in the west and sets in the east" Quentyn going to Essos.

It's these things that are considered crackpot that make the most sense.

[Modesty Lannister]

Hermann theory, Arminius theory. Hermes not so much. But I agree. Maybe in later installments of this "curious case" threads. This theory has a lot of potential.

And I totally agree with the second part. the clues.

People just recently found out that the MMD words are a real prophecy that has fulfilled it's first part. "When the sun rises in the west and sets in the east" Quentyn going to Essos.

It's these things that are considered crackpot that make the most sense.

I totally agree. And as Daenerys must go eat to go west, I think RT had to go north to go south.

[setmyheartafire]

The eye color thing is really one of the arguments for any parentage discussions that annoys the crap out of me for like a ton of reasons.

Targaryens don't all have purple eyes and purple eyes aren't limited to Targaryens.

Targaryens have been shown with brown eyes, lilac eyes, purple eyes, indigo eyes, violet eyes, green and blue eyes, etc.

And Daynes have been noted to have purple eyes but they aren't Targaryens.

The purple eyes come from "the blood of old Valyria".

Way too much stock is put into eye and hair color as if they are definitive indicators of lineage.

The only point to "the seed is strong" in the beginning is to point out that for ages Baratheons had children black of hair no matter what color hair the mother had.

The Targaryens have had lines of people with silver, gold, brown, and black hair, and brown, blue, purple, and even mismatched eyes.

Mance's eye color doesn't matter.

[Metopheles]

The eye color thing is really one of the arguments for any parentage discussions that annoys the crap out of me for like a ton of reasons.

Targaryens don't all have purple eyes and purple eyes aren't limited to Targaryens.

Targaryens have been shown with brown eyes, lilac eyes, purple eyes, indigo eyes, violet eyes, green and blue eyes, etc.

And Daynes have been noted to have purple eyes but they aren't Targaryens.

The purple eyes come from "the blood of old Valyria".

Way too much stock is put into eye and hair color as if they are definitive indicators of lineage.

The only point to "the seed is strong" in the beginning is to point out that for ages Baratheons had children black of hair no matter what color hair the mother had.

The Targaryens have had lines of people with silver, gold, brown, and black hair, and brown, blue, purple, and even mismatched eyes.

Mance's eye color doesn't matter.

And he can always be under glamour. Glamours change eye colour. Melisandre possibly is under glamour herself. She has red eyes but red hair, so no real albinism. And even if..

Glamours change all.

[Armstark]

Do we know that the knights of the KG at the ToJ know king Aerys is dead? Or Rhaegar for that matter. We don't know that from the books and I highly doubt they do know what happened in KL. I think it the words of Ser Arthur Dayne are significant. He said - And now it begins. What begins? The fight? Something else?

Yes we do. They know exactly what happened. And Ned even tells them:

“I looked for you on the Trident,” Ned said to them.

“We were not there,” Ser Gerold answered.

“Woe to the Usurper if we had been,” said Ser Oswell.

“When King’s Landing fell, Ser Jaime slew your king with a golden sword, and I wondered where you were.”

“Far away,” Ser Gerold said, “or Aerys would yet sit the Iron Throne, and our false brother would burn in seven hells.”

“I came down on Storm’s End to lift the siege,” Ned told them... and the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne dipped their banners, and all their knights bent the knee to pledge us fealty. I was certain you would be among them.”

So your 'keep her as a hostage' order theory cannot work.