What if Renly had lived?

[averde]

I really wonder what the Lannisters would do. Run back to the Rock?

A proud man like Tywin after losing all three kids seems like the type to snap. Either he brings all the Lannisters down in a blaze of glory last stand in the Westerlands, or he does the whole fall on his sword roman style and Kevan takes over and sues for peace.

[Light a wight tonight]

Renly thinks he has a big enough army to subjugate Westeros. But he doesn't.

He doesn't need to. He has the Reach on his side already, for starters. That's one of the biggest armies around. The Vale is neutral, will go with whatever butt's currently warming the IT. They're also a big army. Dorne's not in love with the Baratheons or the Tyrells but they hate the Lannisters so they'll back Renly. Without the Tyrells the Lannisters don't have all that big an army, and they're fighting Robb and whaever forces the Riverlands still have. They're toast when Renly goes after them.

If Robb gets killed by the Freys/Boltons that may free up Lannister troops but they're still outnumbered. They gain the Freys and Boltons as allies but those are relatively few fighting men.

[Stormland's Fury]

He doesn't need to. He has the Reach on his side already, for starters.

And if half of the realm doesn't bend he only has the Reach army.

[Fat Trell]

I think taking KL quicker would helped more as then they can hole up in KL and plan their next move while Tywin is stuck. Renly was ready to give the North independence after all. He should just give back Sansa and deliver Joffrey to them in return for fealty and the pact would have been done.

Also the Tyrells want their daughter on that throne, they don't give a shit about the Riverlands.

Taking KL wouldn't be a problem. The possibility of being caught below the walls as Tywin comes from behind might be.

Renly was not ready to give the North independence. He might have let Robb call himself king but he was very firm with Catelyn that he would not yield the North.

[Stormland's Fury]

Taking KL wouldn't be a problem. The possibility of being caught below the walls as Tywin comes from behind might be.

Renly was not ready to give the North independence. He might have let Robb call himself king but he was very firm with Catelyn that he would not yield the North.

He was expecting Tywin to be in the Riverlands, which makes it even more baffling that he took so long since there was the still the possibility the Lannisters might win.

He was ready to give them independence if they swore fealty to him, which is actually not that big a difference, granted.

[Firiel Hiren]

Robb hadn't married Jeyne yet and wouldn't have lost the Frey's at this point in time. Catelyn was in Renly ' s camp waiting for Renly to win because Renly wanted her to witness that before returning North. Therefore I am sure Catelyn would have at least brought Renly's updated terms to Robb and witnessed any remaining forces of Stannis retreating or joining Renly.

I think Tywin would know he had to take out Renly or make a deal with him and Tywin would have to forget about Robb. He is a tactician and works with letters as well as swords. If he couldn't find a way to kill Renly before Renly reaches King's Landing, he would have to make a deal with Renly. Perhaps Tywin would sacrifice Joffrey, Cersei and Tyrion if he knew Tommen was safe at that other castle and since Jaime was elsewhere.

[Stormland's Fury]

But in that case Renly couldn't have firm footing if he doesn't have control and/or kills all of the Lannister bastards. He would demand all of them. And if the Lannisters still have any ties to the throne the Tyrells wouldn't be happy.

The Lannisters can't do that much if Renly manages to take KL, and they can't really offer him anything either.

[barmyscouser]

Let's say Renly can get his host passed Moat Cailin even though the Andals tried for thousands of years and failed. At that point, Renly is Napoleon invading Russia.

Doran Martel might have agreed to be Renly's fake bannerman as he did for Robert and Joff. But if Renly wants taxes or levies he'll have to win a guerrilla war in the Red Mountains.

The Eyrie is considered to be the toughest castle in Westeros to besiege. So those would be Renly's 3 hardest campaigns. But The Riverlands, Westerlands and Iron Islands would all put up a fight.

So what would run out first, Renly's soldiers, Mace's gold or the patience of their bannermen?

[Sullen]

Why?

He had the Tyrells and Stormlords backing him. He didn't know that Balon crowned himself, he was attacking the Crownlads with the intend to dispose Lannisters, the Dornish hate his buddies the Tyrells, and he was contemplating to secede the North and possibly the Riverlands and all he knew was that a Tully was in charge of the Vale. At that point he reigns directly over only the Crownlands, the Reach and the Stormlands and only has the Rewyne fleet to deal with both the Greyjoys and Stannis core group of the Royal fleet on two different sides of the continent.

The Dornish hate the Lannisters more than they hate the Tyrells, the Greyjoys only consider declaring independence once Renly is dead (and there is no one juggernaut force in Westeros anymore), and he never intended to let the North secede, he was granting Robb a title similar to "Prince of Dorne" or "King of Salt and Rock", an empty honour to someone that is still his vassal.

As for the Vale, if Lysa intended helping the North/Riverlands alliance, she would have done so already, she was clearly sitting out the war. And Renly wasn't exactly attacking the Crownlands, he was waiting for King's Landing to be ripe for the taking and offering itself to him.

As for Stannis, he would have crushed his 5k men with his 20k cavalry and Storm's End's garrison, so Stannis's navy is not a problem in that equation.

There's a reason GRRM killed Renly so early, the War would have been done by the end of the second book with Renly alive.

[Stormland's Fury]

As for Stannis, he would have crushed his 5k men with his 20k cavalry and Storm's End's garrison, so Stannis's navy is not a problem in that equation.

There's a reason GRRM killed Renly so early, the War would have been done by the end of the second book with Renly alive.

The core of the navy are hardcore Stannis loyalists and would return to Dragonstone to defend Shireen. Those are the same men who chose death instead of bending the knee to Joffrey.

Of course the war would be over pretty quick I mentioned that too. But in the longterm it would be bad because Renly doesn't care about Dany nor the wildlings and Others just like he ignored Stannis.

[Mad Monkey]

Agreed, I don't understand why people keep saying that Renly wanted to forfeit the North. He may have been FORCED to eventually, but at the time this was being discussed it was clear that if he had his way Robb would be 'King' only in name and would basically be just another vassal.

But in the longterm it would be bad because Renly doesn't care about Dany nor the wildlings and Others just like he ignored Stannis.

That's very true. When it comes to the War for the Dawn Westeros needs Stannis. However, it may have been helpful if the war of the 5 kings had ended faster, so that more people and more resources would have been available to deal with the Others.

[Mithras]

He would have Stannis killed and then Robb would probably denounce his kingship and bend the knee to him. Dorne would join them although keeping their distance to the Tyrells and the Vale would follow too. Then Tywin would bend the knee and negotiate the terms of peace, which means he would have to say goodbye to his golden twins and stuck up with Tyrion.

Balon in every case would rise again and get his ass kicked.

[Sullen]

The core of the navy are hardcore Stannis loyalists and would return to Dragonstone to defend Shireen. Those are the same men who chose death instead of bending the knee to Joffrey.

Of course the war would be over pretty quick I mentioned that too. But in the longterm it would be bad because Renly doesn't care about Dany nor the wildlings and Others just like he ignored Stannis.

The core of Stannis's navy was manned by his measly 5K (who all die or join Renly in the morning, and Stannis really didn't have any other force) and sellsails, who obviously flee as soon as Stannis croaks.

As for Dany, of course Renly cares about her, he's one of those that suggests sending someone to murder her across the sea, the Wildlings can be taken care of by Robb, who is back safe in the North, same for the Others. (And I believe Robb's forces are considerably larger than what Stannis had at that point, so everything is better for everyone)

Renly not being in power would have been a definite advantage for the Realm, there's no way around it... Stannis fucked the whole Realm over when he murdered his brother, ensuring years more of war and destruction.

Balon in every case would rise again and get his ass kicked.

If the North bend the knee to Renly, I doubt Balon attacks them... If anything, his "attack the weakest player" attitude would push him to attack the Lannisters and thus allow Renly to obtain a surrender from Tywin even faster.

Renly can propose to let the Ironborn keep what they plundered from the Westerlands in exchange for fealty.

[Stormland's Fury]

That's very true. When it comes to the War for the Dawn Westeros needs Stannis. However, it may have been helpful if the war of the 5 kings had ended faster, so that more people and more resources would have been available to deal with the Others.

I think Renly could have ended it faster but Stannis was the one who actually wanted it to end the fastest.

[Stormland's Fury]

People have been arguing in both brother's favors but you are still hellbent on defending Renly as the best there is. He was just as flawed as virtually anyone in the whole story.

[Sullen]

I think Renly could have ended it faster but Stannis was the one who actually wanted it to end the fastest.

Killing Renly certainly shows otherwise.

If anything, Stannis would have been even worse than the Lannisters in terms of dragging on the war and death.

[Stormland's Fury]

Killing Renly certainly shows otherwise.

If anything, Stannis would have been even worse than the Lannisters in terms of dragging on the war and death.

Ok. You still going back to your black and white points. There are people including myself who spoke in both favours but nope you still want argue about points no one even denies, you just pick out the good things.

So yeah, I know objectivity can be a little abstract.

[Sullen]

People have been arguing in both brother's favors but you are still hellbent on defending Renly as the best there is. He was just as flawed as virtually anyone in the whole story.

The guy is flawed and kind of a douche, sure... for one, his claim is entirely based on "Might is right", which isn't exactly the most commendable philosophu.

His plan and predicament weren't though, he was in the perfect position of ending the war in the matter of a short amount of time while keeping losses at a minimum and having the Realm ready for the Wildlings, the Targ's return, and Winter... and was doing just that when he was murdered by his brother.

[Sullen]

Ok. You still going back to your black and white points. There are people including myself who spoke in both favours but nope you still want argue about points no one even denies, you just pick out the good things.

So yeah, I know objectivity can be a little abstract.

It's not black and white.

You can't say "Stannis intended to end the war the fastest" when everything he does proves to the contrary.

[Stormland's Fury]

It's not black and white.

You can't say "Stannis intended to end the war the fastest" when everything he does proves to the contrary.

Seriously.