New Series High

[Cas Stark]

Does anyone have any theories why Episode 5 always gets a large audience? In every year except season 1, it's been the 2nd highest rated episode, if I am reading those charts right. Is there some kind of lull in network programming that week or something. Seems odd.

[boojam]

Does anyone have any theories why Episode 5 always gets a large audience? In every year except season 1, it's been the 2nd highest rated episode, if I am reading those charts right. Is there some kind of lull in network programming that week or something. Seems odd.

I have never figured out why Episode 9 season 2 and season 4 always seem to drop since one might think that word-of-mouth it would be known these are big battle events.

Never have seen the pick-up after the first episode since then it would be known what these episodes were, that is the final total for these episodes.

[Cas Stark]

I have never figured out why Episode 9 season 2 and season 4 always seem to drop since one might think that word-of-mouth it would be known these are big battle events.

Never have seen the pick-up after the first episode since then it would be known what these episodes were, that is the final total for these episodes.

Isn't that because it falls on/around Memorial Day weekend and they take a break, so I assume people get confused and then they miss it. But, yes it is bizarre that the 2nd to last episode always has a drop off since it gets so much PR.

[Faint]

My take on the drop: it comes down to three factors, listed in no particular order:

1. Leaks definitely had an effect, but not a very strong one, I think. At most a couple hundred thousand HBO subscribers saw the leaked copy and missed the live airing.

Additional several hundred thousand represent a natural decrease every season thus far experienced in Episode 2 for whatever reason.

The show started plateauing. I don't think we'll see such large surges in viewership as was the case during earlier seasons.

This last bit of conjecture I base, among other things, on Google Trends metric. Every January, February, and March before Seasons 2, 3, and 4 there was a very pronounced increase in search volume containing the search words 'Game of Thrones' in comparison to the year before. On the other hand, these last few months before Season 5 saw a slight decline compared to the same time period in 2014. The show has probably reached the zenith in its cultural reach.

My issue with the theory that the show has plateaued is that the first episode of the current season had 800,000 more viewers than any other episode of Game of Thrones, only to drop 1.2 million viewers the following week.

That pattern does not really fit a show that is in decline. Look at the ratings for True Blood for a comparative example. When the sixth season started, they lost a million viewers from the previous season and never regained them. Or The Sopranos when it returned for season six, which lost more than two million viewers and never regained them.

My guess remains that this drop is a symptom of piracy. Game of Thrones has always been pirated before, but in previous seasons it was a situation where you could download the newest episode a couple of hours after it had aired. This is something completely different.

I figure that roughly half a million people watched the premier live, then proceeded to download episodes two, three and four, and that is what accounts for the larger than expected drop.

[robasp2]

Ok the leaks now seem to have made impact. People said "The leaks were not a big deal since people already paid for GoT so the will watch it"

[Mourneblade]

LOL, this statement is absurd.

A lot of people have already seen it through the leaks.

There were also very bad storms that knocked power out in large areas of the country.

There's also NBA and NHL finals right now.

So yeah, I seriously doubt it's because people were 'disappointed' in one episode that they dropped the show completely.

This statement is absurd... just because it is something you do not want to hear does not make it wrong. The writing this season has not been as good as the first 4 seasons, it has fallen off as must see TV.

[Ran]

Well, the leaks aren't a big deal in the sense that if people have paid for HBO, it doesn't matter to HBO if they watched it or not, exactly, so long as they pay. HBO wouldn't mind the buzz being as high as it was before, because buzz is good, but when you get down to the brass tacks, they care about subscribers paying their monthly fee even if they don't watch a single hour of their channel.

But the leaks probably have had a significant initial impact on conversation levels and related traffic. As I said, I suspect internet sites are going to be more sensitive to this.

[boojam]

Isn't that because it falls on/around Memorial Day weekend and they take a break, so I assume people get confused and then they miss it. But, yes it is bizarre that the 2nd to last episode always has a drop off since it gets so much PR.

Well that was not true for season 4.

I should make it clear for season 2 ep. 9 I am not thinking that first showing, I know that's the one they post figures for but what the weekly total was that week. We never found out. That episode created buzz ...subsequent showing must have punched that episode up.

[Strytos]

Google search volume for Game of Thrones' premiere week this year was lower than last year (93% of 2014):

https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Game%20of%20Thrones&geo=US&date=3%2F2014%204m%2C%203%2F2015%204m&cmpt=date&tz=

The main stream media would have had you believe the show is bigger than ever before the season 5 premiere, but it seems the hype might have been somewhat artificial.

[Mr Fixit]

My issue with the theory that the show has plateaued is that the first episode of the current season had 800,000 more viewers than any other episode of Game of Thrones, only to drop 1.2 million viewers the following week.

That pattern does not really fit a show that is in decline. Look at the ratings for True Blood for a comparative example. When the sixth season started, they lost a million viewers from the previous season and never regained them. Or The Sopranos when it returned for season six, which lost more than two million viewers and never regained them.

My guess remains that this drop is a symptom of piracy. Game of Thrones has always been pirated before, but in previous seasons it was a situation where you could download the newest episode a couple of hours after it had aired. This is something completely different.

I figure that roughly half a million people watched the premier live, then proceeded to download episodes two, three and four, and that is what accounts for the larger than expected drop.

I didn't say GoT was in decline, I said that maybe it was starting to plateau.

As for pirating the leaked episodes being the primary reason for the drop, there we have some interesting data. http://www.truoptik.com/game-of-thrones-S5-infographic

If I read the infographic correctly, in the US there were about 490,000 downloads of Episode 2 in the first week since the leak. We don't know how many of those are also HBO subscribers, but A LOT aren't. Furthermore, we don't know how many of the "pirates" that are subscribers viewed the episode live nonetheless. There were bound to be some. In any case, the leaked episode, by my estimate, can't account for more than 200,000-300,000 viewers. The missing million? Got to be due to other causes.

[boojam]

Google search volume for Game of Thrones' premiere week this year was lower than last year (93% of 2014):

https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Game%20of%20Thrones&geo=US&date=3%2F2014%204m%2C%203%2F2015%204m&cmpt=date&tz=

The main stream media would have had you believe the show is bigger than ever before the season 5 premiere, but it seems the hype might have been somewhat artificial.

I can't make any sense out of what you posted. Over at Google Trends no such thing is shown.

[Faint]

I didn't say GoT was in decline, I said that maybe it was starting to plateau.

As for pirating the leaked episodes being the primary reason for the drop, there we have some interesting data. http://www.truoptik.com/game-of-thrones-S5-infographic

If I read the infographic correctly, in the US there were about 490,000 downloads of Episode 2 in the first week since the leak. We don't know how many of those are also HBO subscribers, but A LOT aren't. Furthermore, we don't know how many of the "pirates" that are subscribers viewed the episode live nonetheless. There were bound to be some. In any case, the leaked episode, by my estimate, can't amount for more than 200,000-300,000 viewers. The missing million? Got to be due to other causes.

That is a fair estimate. My math came out to roughly 500,000 downloads of the second episode in the United States. You have to figure if it was not for the downloads, the second episode would have had over seven million initial viewers.

Beyond that, I think Spurs v. Clippers, Game 1, took a huge chuck out of the ratings. First round match ups are not typically so anticipated.

[sj4iy]

This statement is absurd... just because it is something you do not want to hear does not make it wrong.

Why is it absurd to say that 13 million people downloading the first four episodes (and probably millions more watching it on sites that host it) has probably impacted the ratings more than people saying "Well, that first episode was kind of slow, think I'll just stop watching it altogether"? I think it's pretty absurd to say that a 15% drop in viewership is completely accountable to people disliking the show after one episode. Of course there will be some people like that- but nowhere near that large of an amount.

The writing this season has not been as good as the first 4 seasons, it has fallen off as must see TV.

LOL, you talk about me basing my statement off of my opinion of the series, then make an assumption based on yours. Brilliant.

I could just as easily say that I think the writing is great and that it is definitely must-see tv. Which opinion is right? Oh, that's right- neither. It's purely subjective. Besides, I'm not basing my conjecture on whether people like the show- I'm looking at the different factors that could easily account for such a large drop off, and it's nonsensical to pin it all on just ONE cause based on one's opinion.

I think it's a combination of people having watched the episodes already, the finals of several sports being broadcast right now (which are better live...GOT can always be caught on-demand later), as well as the storms that swept through much of the country last week. I'm sure some people decided not to watch it anymore, but nowhere near as large of a percentage as you seem to think.

In any case, I don't think first-night ratings mean much in this day and age- I'd be curious to see how many people watched it throughout the week, which would probably give us a more accurate idea of what really impacted the first night ratings.

[Hiram McDrogon]

On the drop between Episodes 1 and 2: couldn't a significant chunk of that drop be people who had heard about this great show, had never watched it, and then watched the first Episode, had no idea what was going on, and then didn't come back? It being slow wasn't so much the problem - rather the fact that they had no idea what was going on. This is something that Game of Thrones suffers from in comparison to "Netflixable" shows like Breaking Bad - it's not as easy for newer fans to catch up. (Still possible, of course, but not as easy.)

[Mourneblade]

Why is it absurd to say that 13 million people downloading the first four episodes (and probably millions more watching it on sites that host it) has probably impacted the ratings more than people saying "Well, that first episode was kind of slow, think I'll just stop watching it altogether"? I think it's pretty absurd to say that a 15% drop in viewership is completely accountable to people disliking the show after one episode. Of course there will be some people like that- but nowhere near that large of an amount.

LOL, you talk about me basing my statement off of my opinion of the series, then make an assumption based on yours. Brilliant.

I could just as easily say that I think the writing is great and that it is definitely must-see tv. Which opinion is right? Oh, that's right- neither. It's purely subjective. Besides, I'm not basing my conjecture on whether people like the show- I'm looking at the different factors that could easily account for such a large drop off, and it's nonsensical to pin it all on just ONE cause based on one's opinion.

I think it's a combination of people having watched the episodes already, the finals of several sports being broadcast right now (which are better live...GOT can always be caught on-demand later), as well as the storms that swept through much of the country last week. I'm sure some people decided not to watch it anymore, but nowhere near as large of a percentage as you seem to think.

In any case, I don't think first-night ratings mean much in this day and age- I'd be curious to see how many people watched it throughout the week, which would probably give us a more accurate idea of what really impacted the first night ratings.

and it continues to drop... no power outages this week....

[The Unborn]

and it continues to drop... no power outages this week....

Those numbers are only for first night airing so are not that relevant in the grand scheme of things. They do not include how many times the show was watched on HBO Go, HBO Now, PVR, replays, other countries, etc. And lets not forget that, no matter what, S05E01 live airing was the most watched HBO show ever. I am sure the numbers will slighty go up for ep5.

[boojam]

Those numbers are only for first night airing so are not that relevant in the grand scheme of things. They do not include how many times the show was watched on HBO Go, HBO Now, PVR, replays, other countries, etc. And lets not forget that, no matter what, S05E01 live airing was the most watched HBO show ever. I am sure the numbers will slighty go up for ep5.

HBO's Week Final says that E1 was up by 1 million over last year. That is for USA showings only.

Wont know E2's week final till next week.

The big unknown is what was the non-USA viewership? A number we rarely ever find out.

http://www.cinemablend.com/television/Game-Thrones-Being-Watched-Legally-By-Ton-People-71572.html

[El Guapo]

Yeah it will ne interesting to see what the episode 2 final numbers will be next week.

[Which Tyler]

I'd have expected the leaks to affect episodes 2-4 significantly more than E1 for a fairly simple reason. Those who simply want to watch the show, and are happy to download it illegally, wouldn't necessarily have been aware of the leaks until they went to download E1.

Only those following the build up and involved in online discussions of the show before the season started would have even known the leaks existed beforehand. After E1 aired, then everyone who downloads these things would know.

Whether that proportion accounts for all the drop-off I simply wouldn't know or like to hazard a guess at; surely all the other factors for things that happen at this time of year (eg sports' finals) tend to happen at this time of year every year and are no more in competition this year than the previous 4.

[Mourneblade]

Those numbers are only for first night airing so are not that relevant in the grand scheme of things. They do not include how many times the show was watched on HBO Go, HBO Now, PVR, replays, other countries, etc. And lets not forget that, no matter what, S05E01 live airing was the most watched HBO show ever. I am sure the numbers will slighty go up for ep5.

hmmm well it IS the first time that episode 2 and 3 trended lower on the first night showing...but hey they are not relevant /rollseyes.