Edmure v Robb Part 2: You'll hold what I tell you to hold!

[Trigger Warning]

I quoted the book in a previous post. And the quote stated that they waited for Tywin. Not that they arrived simultaneously. That they waited. Why is that so hard to comprehend?

But let's go with your scenario. Tywin is in the west fighting Robb and can't meet the Tyrells. This means that Stannis has taken King's Landing. Will the Tyrells lay siege to the Red Keep?

Just because they waited for Tywin in a situation where he's actually coming doesn't mean they'd do nothing in a situation where he isn't.

[Wmarshal]

Wasn't part of the plan any way? Tywin was planning the assault with the Tyrells and Baelish, the just didn't go to the riverlands because.

[Victor227]

It was a good plan, a really good plan. In one swift stroke, Edmure would have made Tywin look impotent in defending his own lands, and denied him a safe retreat to Harrenhall. He'd have been left stuck in the Riverlands, forced to make an embarrassing and costly withdrawal to take the southern route back to the West, suffering snickers and desertion all the while as Robb pillaged the Westerlands without impediment, and heck, became free to withdraw eastward as soon as Tywin arrived in the west.

That river may as well have been a castle wall the way it was held. Better really, as Tywin didn't need to cross a castle wall to demonstrate to his bannermen that he could defend his lands. Edmure was the commander, his orders were to hold Riverrun. Well, Riverrun was held, and a Lannister army was bloodied through the use of superb defensive positions.

If there's any fault to go around for how it went, it was Stannis' doing. At the time, Cortnay Penrose made it quite clear that Storm's End was going to hold for a long, long, time (he explicitly told the realm). That's the reason why Tywin took the gamble to go after Robb in the first place (SSM source). Renly was dead, the south was divided, and Stannis was stuck in a siege that could take the better part of forever, so it was time to deal with the threat to his own lands. No one has the power to predict shadowbabies. Not Renly, not Tywin, not Robb, and certainly not Edmure.

Robb acts all smug like he knew that bringing Tywin west would free King's Landing to fall, but he didn't know that at all. At the time, the entire southern conflict looked to be completely frozen. What he was actually banking on apparently, was trapping himself in the west with a vengeful Tywin Lannister, after losing the Freys (the Karstarks would have gone too when they heard about Jaime), while the man had all the time in the world to crush him methodically.

Robb is in a bad place in ASOS, becoming moody, brooding, and generally despondent. And there's a reason for that. He manipulated his mother to get her approval for the Westerling marriage, and he manipulated Edmure into compensating for his mistake, all while his campaign and kingdom crumbled around him. I have some sympathy for him, but he and the Blackfish definitely played Edmure.

[The Fallen]

Just because they waited for Tywin in a situation where he's actually coming doesn't mean they'd do nothing in a situation where he isn't.

Why can't I get an answer to the question?

Would the Tyrells have laid siege to the Red Keep?

Wasn't part of the plan any way? Tywin was planning the assault with the Tyrells and Baelish, the just didn't go to the riverlands because.

It was Tyrion who sent Baelish. If Tywin knew why was he trying to go west?

It was a good plan, a really good plan. In one swift stroke, Edmure would have made Tywin look impotent in defending his own lands, and denied him a safe retreat to Harrenhall. He'd have been left stuck in the Riverlands, forced to make an embarrassing and costly withdrawal to take the southern route back to the West, suffering snickers and desertion all the while as Robb pillaged the Westerlands without impediment, and heck, became free to withdraw eastward as soon as Tywin arrived in the west.

That river may as well have been a castle wall the way it was held. Better really, as Tywin didn't need to cross a castle wall to demonstrate to his bannermen that he could defend his lands. Edmure was the commander, his orders were to hold Riverrun. Well, Riverrun was held, and a Lannister army was bloodied through the use of superb defensive positions.

If there's any fault to go around for how it went, it was Stannis' doing. At the time, Cortnay Penrose made it quite clear that Storm's End was going to hold for a long, long, time (he explicitly told the realm). That's the reason why Tywin took the gamble to go after Robb in the first place (SSM source). Renly was dead, the south was divided, and Stannis was stuck in a siege that could take the better part of forever, so it was time to deal with the threat to his own lands. No one has the power to predict shadowbabies. Not Renly, not Tywin, not Robb, and certainly not Edmure.

Robb acts all smug like he knew that bringing Tywin west would free King's Landing to fall, but he didn't know that at all. At the time, the entire southern conflict looked to be completely frozen. What he was actually banking on apparently, was trapping himself in the west with a vengeful Tywin Lannister, after losing the Freys (the Karstarks would have gone too when they heard about Jaime), while the man had all the time in the world to crush him methodically.

Robb is in a bad place in ASOS, becoming moody, brooding, and generally despondent. And there's a reason for that. He manipulated his mother to get her approval for the Westerling marriage, and he manipulated Edmure into compensating for his mistake, all while his campaign and kingdom crumbled around him. I have some sympathy for him, but he and the Blackfish definitely played Edmure.

If the plan was so good why didn't it work? Why didn't Roose cut off Tywin?

[JoeyBanana]

Regardless of the implications for Robb and his plans, it was an unnecessary battle. You don't force a battle when you have a defensive option like Riverrun. Especially when the enemy has a bigger army and every loss is more damaging to your cause than his. Not to mention that with a siege, Edmure's victory is guaranteed while an open confrontation is risky and could go either way. He was definitely not lucky, by the way, and he deserves credit for his win, even if it was pointless and did backfire.

By letting him pass, he could actually do more than "bloody Tywin's nose" and fall in his rear once Robb attacked or stop his retreat to King's Landing. It's a war and losses happen, so should Tywin actually defeat Robb in the Westerlands, Edmure can still win the war. It doesn't even matter if Robb dies or captures Tywin, all that was necessary to win, was the last Lannister host being unable to defend King's Landing.

But Edmure didn't realize that it wasn't important to lure Tywin from Harrenhal but past Riverrun, so his army would be threathened from his rear (Edmure) and from wherever Robb decided to engage Tywin, essentially trapping him and making it impossible for him to turn back and defend King's Landing (without heavy losses and a potential defeat). That's not exactly hard to figure out and it's definitely his fault for not putting Tywin in the most vulnerable position. He had the choice, and he decided wrong.

Should Edmure have known about the actual plan? No. Should he have put his feelings aside and thought of the overall war effort and not his vengeance and glory? Hell yes.

And it's not like Edmure himself doesn't realize it was a mistake once BF/Robb explain why. He's simply caught off-guard because he was praised just a minute earlier and now he's suddenly being scolded.

I also disagree with Robb orchestrating the whole thing to force Edmure to marry a Frey girl. It's rather that he let Edmure have his moment of glory and his pride untouched by not publically blaming him, to make up for the fact that he has to pay for Robb's mistake. It's pretty obvious as BF points out that he wouldn't have gotten off so easily otherwise.

[Nittanian]

Your "no" is based on which evidence?

Is your an opinion or are you openly denying my opinion based on textual proof?

I'm not so much informed to sustain a debate here, I must say. And it would be off topic in this thread. So I would only like to know whether u feel very much secure into your own statement or not.

From a So Spake Martin,

We know that Roose Bolton had already taken Walda Frey to wife before Robb married Jeyne Westerling. Does this then mean that Walder Frey had already planned to ally himself with Bolton to murder Robb before Robb's marriage betrayal, or was his anger towards Robb and his reasoning towards his own family as to why Robb had to be killed more than just a pretext, and the genuine reason for the Red Wedding?

"What if" questions are impossible to answer with any certainty... knowing old Lord Walder's character, it is likely he would have searched for some way to disentangle himself from a losing cause sooner or later, but his desertion would likely have taken a less savage form. The Red Wedding was motivated by his desire to wash out the dishonor that was done him...

As for Bolton, if you reread all his sections carefully, I think you will see a picture of a man keeping all his options open as long as he could... sniffing the wind, covering his tracks, ready to jump either way... even as late as his supper with Jaime at Harrenhal...

While GRRM is indicating here that Roose is still on the fence when he sups with Jaime in ASOS, it is also arguable that he commits to the Lannisters at the end of ACOK.

Regarding Harrenhal, another SSM states:

That one is from me personally (it is a bit of burning issue for me because it debunked my favourite theory ;)), but - was Tywin really obligingly marching into Robb's trap when Edmure stopped him at the Red Fork? Did he really count on Lorch and Hoat with their IIRC 300 men holding Harrenhal and the northern prisoners in his absence?

Harrenhal is an immensely strong castle, and a garrison of three hundred is quite sizeable in medieval terms. Ser Amory =should= have been able to hold it. Lord Tywin likely thought that Roose Bolton might descend on the castle and besiege it, in which case Lorch could likely have held out for half a year or longer. The wild card here was Vargo Hoat changing sides.

Also to clarify, it is not Martyn Rivers but one of his scouts who meets Catelyn before she arrives at Riverrun in ACOK-39.

"The Blackfish is gone west with the king, my lady. Martyn Rivers commands the outriders in his stead." ...

"My brother commands in Riverrun?"

"Yes, my lady. His Grace left Ser Edmure to hold Riverrun and guard his rear."

[Wmarshal]

Thanks Nittanian, could have sworn it was Martyn, doesn't make the order any less real.

[I'm the Party Pooper]

From a So Spake Martin,

While GRRM is indicating here that Roose is still on the fence when he sups with Jaime in ASOS, it is also arguable that he commits to the Lannisters at the end of ACOK.

Regarding Harrenhal, another SSM states:

Also to clarify, it is not Martyn Rivers but one of his scouts who meets Catelyn before she arrives at Riverrun in ACOK-39.

Pretty kind of you to collect the evidence in front to my dumb nose, thank you very much! ;-) I would have taken Trust of your word and a simple affirmative reinforcing answer, but this is obviously much better.. hope I'll not forget that soon enough.

[Wmarshal]

Why can't I get an answer to the question?

Would the Tyrells have laid siege to the Red Keep?

It was Tyrion who sent Baelish. If Tywin knew why was he trying to go west?

Probably

The Tyrells weren't just there because, they assembled a fleet of barges to cross, Tywin was called by outriders to meet them, the Tyrells were fully prepared to set out.

[Victor227]

If the plan was so good why didn't it work? Why didn't Roose cut off Tywin?

Because Stannis miraculously ended a siege that everyone thought would take forever, and thus Tywin had somewhere else he could justifiably be. If everything had continued as conventional logic dictated, Tywin would have been in a terrible spot. He may have been in an ideal place to get back to King's Landing in time for the battle, but that was literally it for his travel destinations. He couldn't stay in the Riverlands, as Roose had taken Harrenhal and that would have left him a sitting duck. If King's Landing wasn't suddenly and surprisingly being threatened, Tywin being repelled at the fords would have been a decisive defeat.

Even if Roose failed to take Harrenhal, it was at least worth a push to see if it could be done, and even if it remained as a bastion for Tywin to retreat to, he'd be doing it in just that, retreat. His whole army would see that Tywin intended to be somewhere else, and was stopped and pushed back. He may be a guy that gets by on iron discipline, but that's going to hurt a medieval host badly in terms of desertion as lords and knights try to make their own way back to defend their lands from northern raiders. I mean, what's he going to do at this point? Pillage the Riverlands? Been there, done that. He'd be forced to withdraw and take the long way back to the west, or mope in Harrenhal while Robb returns the favor.

Robb's entire argument is also flawed. Stannis is not a 'we could have made a peace' guy. Stannis is a 'we could have surrendered and probably lived' guy. The Lannisters losing King's Landing and Stannis ascending to the Iron Throne would have been bad for them, yeah, but it would have also been bad for the North. Tommen and Myrcella weren't in the capital, and were both well away from the fighting, the Lannisters still had the raw materials to forge the Tyrell alliance (assuming the Tyrells didn't just beat Stannis at King's Landing by themselves, securing all the glory and power in one fell swoop). It would have just left Robb once again, facing a vengeful Tywin with all the time in the world to chew him apart with a superior army.

[Wmarshal]

I just reread "the plan they claimed they had. It relied completely on Tywin not nowing his own land and when he is being led on a chase.

[JoeyBanana]

I just reread "the plan they claimed they had. It relied completely on Tywin not nowing his own land and when he is being led on a chase.

He didn't have a choice. It's either stay at Harrenhal and see your own lands burn, or go after Robb and risk a trap.

Robb wanted a confrontation with Tywin, Edmure knew this and yet he prevented it.

[Wmarshal]

I mean in the West, Tywin knows his land, try to use it against sound ridicules and not something a seasoned commander like Brynden would think would work. They basically trapped with Tywin. Even KL fell, Tywin has nothing left to loose and gut them.

[JoeyBanana]

I mean in the West, Tywin knows his land, try to use it against sound ridicules and not something a seasoned commander like Brynden would think would work. They basically trapped with Tywin. Even KL fell, Tywin has nothing left to loose and gut them.

We have no actual details of their plan, so it seems rather ridiculous to disregard it entirely. And yes, i agree, they were "trapped" with Tywin. That's Robb's intention, though, to finally confront him in the field and decide the conflict. It was definitely another big gamble on Robb's part (just like the battles before) and it could've gone either way. Neither Tywin nor Robb were facing a guaranteed victory.

A big part of that plan was most likely to have Riverrun at Tywin's back. It's a huge tactical advantage. Edmure screwed that up by not only unintentionally giving Tywin the option to fight Stannis, but also preventing a battle on Robb's terms with potential aid from RR. The first isn't his fault, i agree, but the latter definitely is. In my opinion, a defeated (or heavily bloodied) Tywin would have been far more valuable for Robb's cause than Stannis taking KL.

[Frey Pie]

I mean in the West, Tywin knows his land, try to use it against sound ridicules and not something a seasoned commander like Brynden would think would work. They basically trapped with Tywin. Even KL fell, Tywin has nothing left to loose and gut them.

Commanders often beat enemy armies on their own land e.g. hannibal and the Romans in Italy. So being at home is to Tywin's advantage but it's not a sure win

[Wmarshal]

Sure, but the idea Brynden would actually create such a plan and think it would work is beyond risk.

[Frey Pie]

Sure, but the idea Brynden would actually create such a plan and think it would work is beyond risk.

Well the thing is if they don't think it will work then they can always just retreat back to the riverlands - there are 3 passes into and out of the west and the southernmost is impossible to block

[Wmarshal]

The southernmost takes to the reach.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Well the thing is if they don't think it will work then they can always just retreat back to the riverlands - there are 3 passes into and out of the west and the southernmost is impossible to block

I think they were counting on Tywins force being mostly foot(1/3 of his 20k was horsed). So any numerical advantage Tywin had would be lost. But once he lost the Frey 1k that plan would have fallen apart as it would be 6.5k chasing 5k presuming that the Freys dont there and then join Tywin.

[Frey Pie]

The southernmost takes to the reach.

Which is a quick trot away from the riverlands