Edmure v Robb Part 2: You'll hold what I tell you to hold!

[The Fallen]

Robbs plan was to keep Tywin occupied in the West so Renly/Stannis(and their host which included the Tyrells at the time) had free reign to attack Kings Landing and Tywin would not be able to help.

Do you really not see how the Tyrells joining up with the Crown negates this plan? Their military is large enough to defeat Stannis without Tywins support.

Robb is fighting one war at a time. To defeat the Lannisters.

Both of the scenarios you painted allow Robb to defeat the Lannisters.

If the Tyrells stick with Renly then they attack King's Landing, either before or after dealing with Stannis. Either way, it allows Robb to deal with Tywin one on one. And King's Landing falling may just force Tywin to sue for peace. After all, Tywin is Mr. Pragmatic.

And if the Tyrells ally with the Lannisters and attack King's Landing, which according to you is a given, it allows Robb to deal with Tywin one on one.

If Robb can vanquish Tywin, then he can deal with the Tyrells - the ones who could care less if the North breaks away - later.

And that's my point. The only way the Tyrells hurt Robb's cause is if they engage Robb directly.

And like I said just because they chose to wait for Tywin when that option was open to them doesn't necessarily mean that they don't have the strength to defeat Stannis on their own, of course that could be the case but waiting for reinforcements to further tip the balance of power in your favour doesn't mean that they didn't have confidence in their ability to defeat Stannis it's just further solidifying the chances of victory.

I don't disagree with your post. What I've stated from the beginning is that I believe the Tyrells didn't want to act alone. All they had was a piece of paper. It doesn't matter how much Mace may hate Stannis; why should he risk everything for a piece of paper? Having Tywin with them is confirmation plus it allows the Tyrells to share some of the risk with the Lannisters. I've also pointed out how, so far, the Tyrell way of doing things is more understated and under the radar.

While little dragon insists that the Tyrells were hell-bent on fighting Stannis no matter what else might have transpired.

[Wmarshal]

Robb is fighting one war at a time. To defeat the Lannisters.

Both of the scenarios you painted allow Robb to defeat the Lannisters.

If the Tyrells stick with Renly then they attack King's Landing, either before or after dealing with Stannis. Either way, it allows Robb to deal with Tywin one on one. And King's Landing falling may just force Tywin to sue for peace. After all, Tywin is Mr. Pragmatic.

And if the Tyrells ally with the Lannisters and attack King's Landing, which according to you is a given, it allows Robb to deal with Tywin one on one.

If Robb can vanquish Tywin, then he can deal with the Tyrells - the ones who could care less if the North breaks away - later.

And that's my point. The only way the Tyrells hurt Robb's cause is if they engage Robb directly.

I don't disagree with your post. What I've stated from the beginning is that I believe the Tyrells didn't want to act alone. All they had was a piece of paper. It doesn't matter how much Mace may hate Stannis; why should he risk everything for a piece of paper? Having Tywin with them is confirmation plus it allows the Tyrells to share some of the risk with the Lannisters. I've also pointed out how, so far, the Tyrell way of doing things is more understated and under the radar.

While little dragon insists that the Tyrells were hell-bent on fighting Stannis no matter what else might have transpired.

Renly is dead by the time Robb goes West. With Renly, not Robb, Robb is a rebel he can kill because Renly doesn't need him.

You Tywin deals with Robb one on one, seriously, his plan relies on Tywin being ignorant of his lands.

The Tyrells don't care? They want to rule Westeros like anyone, and can easily kill Robb with 60,000 men.

Because Stannis would kill Mace if he sits on the throne, or put the florents in charge, or both. What risk? Garlan alone beat Stannis with the Van. Like crowning Renly in HG and declaring him king before it is even clear Joffrey is a bastard?

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Robb is fighting one war at a time. To defeat the Lannisters.

Both of the scenarios you painted allow Robb to defeat the Lannisters.

If the Tyrells stick with Renly then they attack King's Landing, either before or after dealing with Stannis. Either way, it allows Robb to deal with Tywin one on one. And King's Landing falling may just force Tywin to sue for peace. After all, Tywin is Mr. Pragmatic.

And if the Tyrells ally with the Lannisters and attack King's Landing, which according to you is a given, it allows Robb to deal with Tywin one on one.

If Robb can vanquish Tywin, then he can deal with the Tyrells - the ones who could care less if the North breaks away - later.

And that's my point. The only way the Tyrells hurt Robb's cause is if they engage Robb directly.

Robbs cause is to remove Joffrey, the man child who executed his father. At first the only thing protecting Joffrey was Tywin and his army thus Robb wants Tywin preoccupied so that Stannis or Renly can take Kings Landing. Here is how Robb and the Blackfish describes it:

"We were all horsed, The Lannister host was mainly foot. We planned to run Lord Tywin a merry chase up and down the coast, then slip behind him to take up a strong defensive position athwart the gold road, at a place my scouts had found where the ground would have been greatly in our favor. If he had come at us there, he would have paid a grievous price. But if he did not attack, he would have been trapped in the west, a thousand leagues from where he needed to be..."- Blackfish

.

"Lord Stannis was about to fall upon King’s Landing, He might have rid us of Joffrey, the queen, and the Imp in one red stroke. Then we might have been able to make a peace."-Robb

The Tyrells joining the Lannisters is a huge stumbling block to this plan as leading Tywin a merry chase is only a good plan if the Kings Landing had no other military help, because they now have the Tyrells, an event that Robb did not predict, then distracting Tywin is not the absolute game changer Robb thinks it is.

In essence it is the Tyrells switching and not Edmure attacking that prevents Stannis winning the Throne. Yet Robb lays the blame all on his uncle as he needs a patsy to smooth over the Frey alliance.

[JoeyBanana]

I had some last thoughts on the plan, so excuse me if i don't focus on the current Tyrell/Stannis discussion, as that seems to go nowhere.

The "we were all horsed, The Lannister host was mainly foot." quote leads me to believe that it wasn't vital for Tywin's horse to be smaller than Robb's but that he had to follow them with a large, immobile infantry slowing him down. In any case, if he decides to separate horse and foot forces, both will be more vulnerable, and if he doesn't, Tywin will have no choice but to play chase whether he wants it or not.

Oh and that the overall idea was to have the Lannisters pay a "grievous price" regardless of the eventual outcome. It obviously involves Stannis' attack on King's Landing but it's only a small part of the plan as it's just mentioned as an eventuality should Tywin refuse to engage them on their terms. With such an overwhelming advantage in numbers alone, one can easily assume that this will most likely not happen and there will be a confrontation, not necessarily exactly at the mentioned favorable grounds but certainly under very similar circumstances. It seems like they simply accounted for the possibility of Tywin not taking the bait, thus staying inactive and passive. So i don't think keeping him away from KL was their primary goal but rather to lure him into a trap in which he can only lose, whether it's many men of his last Lannister host or a large part of his family due to Stannis.

All of this is reason enough to conclude that Edmure did in fact not save his nephew's and uncle's lives but only prevented the Stark-Tully side from potentially dealing a heavy blow (in either case) to the Lannisters as opposed to just giving them a bloody nose. Yeah, it's definitely not without risk but that's not exactly a new development for Robb.

To clarify, i do not presume to know the outcome of Tywin vs Robb. But i also do not buy into Tywin roflstomping Robb the second he gets some sort of magical Westerlands buff and his free Bloodraven-secret-plan-anticipation card.

[Frey Pie]

http://www.historyofwesteros.com/concarolinas-westerlands-reading/

Maybe this will change your mind.

It looks like that the Reynes/Tarbacks were outnumbered, but only because Tywin prepared carefully and caught them by surprise.

Also, the flooding of Castamere sure looks like a mild streak of brilliance. No one else seems to have ever thought of it.

Hey Bran!

Ya I've read that before. Just confirms my thoughts on Tywin for me. He's good no doubt. I always said he must have had support from the other bannermen and it turns out he did.

Castamere is pure Tywin. Especially when you consider what jon con said about the battle of the bells and burning the town down. Ruthless? Yes. Cunning? Yup

[The Fallen]

Robbs cause is to remove Joffrey, the man child who executed his father. At first the only thing protecting Joffrey was Tywin and his army thus Robb wants Tywin preoccupied so that Stannis or Renly can take Kings Landing. Here is how Robb and the Blackfish describes it:

.

The Tyrells joining the Lannisters is a huge stumbling block to this plan as leading Tywin a merry chase is only a good plan if the Kings Landing had no other military help, because they now have the Tyrells, an event that Robb did not predict, then distracting Tywin is not the absolute game changer Robb thinks it is.

In essence it is the Tyrells switching and not Edmure attacking that prevents Stannis winning the Throne. Yet Robb lays the blame all on his uncle as he needs a patsy to smooth over the Frey alliance.

These are your scenarios and I'm using the actions YOU are espousing.

Check it out:

Mace is with Renly. They take King's Landing. Joffrey is toppled. Tywin has no allies and is isolated in the west.

Mace allies with the Lannisters. Stannis takes King's Landing. Joffrey is toppled. Tywin is isolated in the west and his one ally is stuck outside of King's Landing besieging it, giving Robb an opportunity to finish off Tywin.

How are either of those bad for Robb? Maybe in the long run, but definitely not in his war against the Lannisters.

It's pretty clear to me, even if you don't want to admit it.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

These are your scenarios and I'm using the actions YOU are espousing.

Check it out:

Mace is with Renly. They take King's Landing. Joffrey is toppled. Tywin has no allies and is isolated in the west.

Mace allies with the Lannisters. Stannis takes King's Landing. Joffrey is toppled. Tywin is isolated in the west and his one ally is stuck outside of King's Landing besieging it, giving Robb an opportunity to finish off Tywin.

How are either of those bad for Robb? Maybe in the long run, but definitely not in his war against the Lannisters.

It's pretty clear to me, even if you don't want to admit it.

If Mace and his 60k ally with the Lannisters then how do you figure that Stannis takes Kings Landing?

How does Robb the injured Robb and his 5k topple Tywin and his 20k in his own realm? Even Robb does not think that is a sure thing as he states in the quote he gives to Edmure about leading Tywin on a merry chase.

[Wmarshal]

I had some last thoughts on the plan, so excuse me if i don't focus on the current Tyrell/Stannis discussion, as that seems to go nowhere.

The "we were all horsed, The Lannister host was mainly foot." quote leads me to believe that it wasn't vital for Tywin's horse to be smaller than Robb's but that he had to follow them with a large, immobile infantry slowing him down. In any case, if he decides to separate horse and foot forces, both will be more vulnerable, and if he doesn't, Tywin will have no choice but to play chase whether he wants it or not.

Oh and that the overall idea was to have the Lannisters pay a "grievous price" regardless of the eventual outcome. It obviously involves Stannis' attack on King's Landing but it's only a small part of the plan as it's just mentioned as an eventuality should Tywin refuse to engage them on their terms. With such an overwhelming advantage in numbers alone, one can easily assume that this will most likely not happen and there will be a confrontation, not necessarily exactly at the mentioned favorable grounds but certainly under very similar circumstances. It seems like they simply accounted for the possibility of Tywin not taking the bait, thus staying inactive and passive. So i don't think keeping him away from KL was their primary goal but rather to lure him into a trap in which he can only lose, whether it's many men of his last Lannister host or a large part of his family due to Stannis.

All of this is reason enough to conclude that Edmure did in fact not save his nephew's and uncle's lives but only prevented the Stark-Tully side from potentially dealing a heavy blow (in either case) to the Lannisters as opposed to just giving them a bloody nose. Yeah, it's definitely not without risk but that's not exactly a new development for Robb.

To clarify, i do not presume to know the outcome of Tywin vs Robb. But i also do not buy into Tywin roflstomping Robb the second he gets some sort of magical Westerlands buff and his free Bloodraven-secret-plan-anticipation card.

You been ignoring so far.

Tywin doesn't have to chase him, again this is his land, Robb taking him to a area that would hinder his force, he would know.

That meant Stannis killing Joffrey. Why? Why would Tywin not know the ground is not favorable with his host of Westmen in the West and he lord the West? That was there goal, well at least what they told Edmure to shame him. According to them it was all about Stannis.

With what? Pointless chase? You still ignore Robb was at the Crag at the time of the Fords, he would have been injured and lost the Freys the time Tywin met him. Robb's plans relied on his foes being ignorant of land.

[Blackfish Tully]

You been ignoring so far.

Tywin doesn't have to chase him, again this is his land, Robb taking him to a area that would hinder his force, he would know.

That meant Stannis killing Joffrey. Why? Why would Tywin not know the ground is not favorable with his host of Westmen in the West and he lord the West? That was there goal, well at least what they told Edmure to shame him. According to them it was all about Stannis.

With what? Pointless chase? You still ignore Robb was at the Crag at the time of the Fords, he would have been injured and lost the Freys the time Tywin met him. Robb's plans relied on his foes being ignorant of land.

Tywin does have to chase Robb , he is the one who has a limited amount of time to get the battle over with because he knows that he needs to get back to KIngs landing to stop Stannis.

The West is a large kingdom there is no way he knows every inch of it . The parts around Casterly Rock he probably knows pretty well but the rest of it he probably only has a casual knowledge of .

The Blackfish is a pretty serious , straightforward guy and if he says he had a plan to defeat Tywin then I believe him.

The Crag took place a month after the battle of the Fords so when Tywin would be crossing into the West Robb was uninjured and still had the Freys so your last point is totally invalid.

[Wmarshal]

Tywin does have to chase Robb , he is the one who has a limited amount of time to get the battle over with because he knows that he needs to get back to KIngs landing to stop Stannis.

The West is a large kingdom there is no way he knows every inch of it . The parts around Casterly Rock he probably knows pretty well but the rest of it he probably only has a casual knowledge of .

The Blackfish is a pretty serious , straightforward guy and if he says he had a plan to defeat Tywin then I believe him.

The Crag took place a month after the battle of the Fords so when Tywin would be crossing into the West Robb was uninjured and still had the Freys so your last point is totally invalid

No he doesn't, by time he got there Stannis would be dead.

Are you joking? He has a host of West men, a map of the west, he knows the West.

We have the plan, it requires Tywin or his men not to know anything of the gold road.

No it didn't, you bringing up the time sheet that has no backing of time, Robb marched on the Crag when Edmure went to the Fords, and the news of him taking it came after Edmure beat Tywin and the victory party was going on.

[The Fallen]

If Mace and his 60k ally with the Lannisters then how do you figure that Stannis takes Kings Landing?

How does Robb the injured Robb and his 5k topple Tywin and his 20k in his own realm? Even Robb does not think that is a sure thing as he states in the quote he gives to Edmure about leading Tywin on a merry chase.

This is getting ridiculous, but I'll play along and explain it one more time.

Fact: the Tyrells wait for Tywin and barely make it to King's Landing in time to save it from Stannis.

Now, if Tywin is out west then the Tyrells have to wait longer to find out whether he'll be joining them. That causes a longer delay which means the Tyrells get to King's Landing even later, thus allowing Stannis to take King's Landing. And I've already mentioned how the Red Keep was in no state to oppose Stannis. It's just common sense and logic. And I'm simply using the actions you insist that the Tyrells would take. (Personally, I don't think the Tyrells would attack Stannis without Tywin.)

I have to check the timeline the second point about the Crag. Something isn't adding up. And we don't get any information about whether Robb received the raven informing him of Tywin's movement west. And I think this is on purpose.

[Wmarshal]

As part a plan, they already fully joined with Baelishat Britterbridge.

Actually no they don't, a couple men on horse are fast then a host of some horse and ground troops. Mace would have gotten there sooner.

[Blackfish Tully]

No he doesn't, by time he got there Stannis would be dead.

Are you joking? He has a host of West men, a map of the west, he knows the West.

We have the plan, it requires Tywin or his men not to know anything of the gold road.

No it didn't, you bringing up the time sheet that has no backing of time, Robb marched on the Crag when Edmure went to the Fords, and the news of him taking it came after Edmure beat Tywin and the victory party was going on.

I'm referencing a timesheet that has an amazing amount of detail and research put into it and you are referencing nothing so I'm going to have to go with the timesheet that has the battle of the Crag taking place one month after the Battle the Fords.

[JoeyBanana]

Why do you think Tywin wanted to go west in the first place? It's because Robb was raiding his own lands and he needed to put an end to it. That's the whole motivation behind the departure from Harrenhal and the bait for the chase.

Tywin's knowledge of the Westerlands do not matter due to Robb's mobility advantage and the aforementioned strategic dilemma they wanted to force him into. His options would be either to attack despite being aware of the heavy price or to stay put/passive and risk the loss of KL.They didn't count on ignorance or failure of the enemy but their own superior mobility aswell as favorable grounds and circumstances.

Oh please, if they wanted to shame Edmure, they wouldn't have done it in private but in front of all the other bannermen, ffs. This would also have given Robb a scapegoat aswell. But he didn't because he wasn't like that, no matter how much you claim the opposite. Edmure got to keep his victory and glory as a reward for marrying a Frey girl. Seriously, he doesn't act dishonorably about Karstark or Jeyne but with his uncle, he suddenly does?

[Wmarshal]

I'm referencing a timesheet that has an amazing amount of detail and research put into it and you are referencing nothing so I'm going to have to go with the timesheet that has the battle of the Crag taking place one month after the Battle the Fords.

there no reference on that sheet that days anywhere where he got a month from, no where.

[Blackfish Tully]

No he doesn't, by time he got there Stannis would be dead.

The Tyrells were waiting for the Lannisters and they both barely got to Kings landing in time. What happens if Tywin crosses the fords and the Tyrell's message does not get to him until a few days later . How long do the Tyrells wait before giving up on Tywin joining them? If they wait a couple of more days then they would be too late to stop Stannis from taking Kings Landing. They could lay siege to Kings Landing but taking it with 20,000 battle hardened Stormlanders led by Stannis defending it would be a hell of lot harder then taking it with 6000 gold cloaks led by Joffrey.

[Blackfish Tully]

there no reference on that sheet that days anywhere where he got a month from, no where.

If Robb was injured at the Crag when the Battle of the Fords was taking place wouldn't Edmure have called him on it . wouldn't he know what day his king took the Crag?

[Wmarshal]

If Tywin passes the fords the Tyrell men can't cross and would have to return to Mace.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

This is getting ridiculous, but I'll play along and explain it one more time.

Fact: the Tyrells wait for Tywin and barely make it to King's Landing in time to save it from Stannis.

They are in the riverlands, they are not waiting in the Reach. You do not travel hundreds of miles to sit around and do nothing.

How does Robb know that they will not act without Tywin? That is the important part, Robb can not possibly know one way or the other so blaming Edmure for a variable he didnt even know about is ludicrous.

[Wmarshal]

If Robb was injured at the Crag when the Battle of the Fords was taking place wouldn't Edmure have called him on it . wouldn't he know what day his king took the Crag?

He plainly didn't and Nittanian already quoted the chapters Catelyn VI and Catelyn VII.