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Edmure v Robb Part 2: You'll hold what I tell you to hold!


danm_999

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we do not know how long it took Edmure to return from the Fords so that really does not mean anything.

How could Edmure not remember when the Battle of the Crags happened ? it seems like that it was a pretty important event in the war and I find it hard to believe that Edmure would not remember it.

I have no idea why Edmure is such a pussy, but when it comes to confronting his older sister, his uncle and now his young nephew/King(who chastised him for calling him a boy) he does.

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I looked at that timeline. They jump from Oxcross to the Crag, there's no mention of Ashemark, which is where Robb was at prior to leaving for the Crag.

There are some issues with that timeline. They have the Battle of the Blackwater happening one month after the Red Fork, which seems too long.

The other question is when the next Cat chapter takes place.

Now, it could simply be a case of Martin not doing a good job with realistic travel times.

I still think that it's possible that a rider reaches Robb two days from the Crag with news of Tywin's movement. Robb and the Blackfish devise a plan. (It's telling that the plan called for Robb to lead Tywin on a chase along the coast, which is where the Crag is located.) Then another rider arrives with news of the fight at the fords and Robb takes the Crag.

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From ACOK-45 (Catelyn VI):


It was three days later when the hammer blow that Brienne had foretold fell, and five days before they heard of it. Catelyn was sitting with her father when Edmure's messenger arrived ...


Lord Tywin had tried to force a crossing at a dozen different fords, her brother wrote, but every thrust had been thrown back. Lord Lefford had been drowned, the Crakehall knight called Strongboar taken captive, Ser Addam Marbrand thrice forced to retreat ... but the fiercest battle had been fought at Stone Mill, where Ser Gregor Clegane had led the assault. So many of his men had fallen that their dead horses threatened to dam the flow. In the end the Mountain and a handful of his best had gained the west bank, but Edmure had thrown his reserve at them, and they had shattered and reeled away bloody and beaten. Ser Gregor himself had lost his horse and staggered back across the Red Fork bleeding from a dozen wounds while a rain of arrows and stones fell all around him. "They shall not cross, Cat," Edmure scrawled, "Lord Tywin is marching to the southeast. A feint perhaps, or full retreat, it matters not. They shall not cross."



.... In her father's solar she found a heavy leatherbound book of maps and opened it to the riverlands. Her eyes found the path of the Red Fork and traced it by flickering candlelight. Marching to the southeast, she thought. By now they had likely reached the headwaters of the Blackwater Rush, she decided.




ACOK-55 (Catelyn VII) takes place an unspecified amount of time later. Edmure has not yet returned to Riverrun, which is celebrating. Cat frees Jaime as she has learned of the "deaths" of Bran and Rickon.



ASOS-2 (Catelyn I) takes place shortly afterwards, with Desmond Grell and Utherydes Wayn confining Cat to Hoster's chamber.That evening Maester Vyman tells her "Lord Tywin has left the riverlands. All's quiet on the fords.", as well as "His Grace took a wound storming the Crag, but writes that it is no cause for concern, and that he hopes to return soon." Edmure returns the following day and tells Cat of the Blackwater.



ASOS-14 (Catelyn II) reveals the Freys left Riverrun hours after Edmure's return, having learned of Jeyne. Brynden also explains,



When you stopped Lord Tywin on the Red Fork, you delayed him just long enough for riders out of Bitterbridge to reach him with word of what was happening to the east. Lord Tywin turned his host at once, joined up with Matthis Rowan and Randyll Tarly near the headwaters of the Blackwater, and made a forced march to Tumbler's Falls, where he found Mace Tyrell, where he found Mace Tyrell and two of his sons waiting with a huge host and a fleet of barges. They floated down the river, disembarked half a day's ride from the city, and took Stannis in the rear.




Even with the forced march and the Blackwater barges, it would take time for Tywin to reach KL. Considering it took twelve days for Robert's retinue to travel the Neck, however, I'm skeptical of Robb's cavalry taking a month to travel from Ashemark to the Crag. ACOK-45 takes about a week, with Catelyn thinking Tywin has reached the Blackwater. ASOS-14 confirms that Tywin fled the fords with a forced march. How long would it take to sail from the Tumbler's Falls / Stoney Sept region to KL? Has Riverrun been celebrating for weeks between ACOK-45 and ACOK-55?



GRRM has stated, "I have deliberately tried to be vague about such things, so I don't have obsessive fans with rulers measuring distances on the map and telling me Ned couldn't get from X to Y in the time I say he did ... But if you turn up any mistakes in travel times by using that measure, let it be your secret."



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Later that day, Maester Vyman brought a letter. She saw him at once, hoping for some word from Robb, or from Ser Rodrik in Winterfell, but the message proved to be from one Lord Meadows, who named himself castellan of Storm’s End. It was addressed to her father, her brother, her son, “or whoever now holds Riverrun.” Ser Cortnay Penrose was dead, the man wrote, and Storm’s End had opened its gate to Stannis Baratheon, the trueborn and rightful heir. The castle garrison had sworn their swords to his cause, one and all, and no man of them had suffered harm.

“Save Cortnay Penrose,” Catelyn murmured. She had never met the man, yet she grieved to hear of his passing. “Robb should know of this at once,” she said. “Do we know where he is?”

“At last word he was marching toward the Crag, the seat of House Westerling,” said Maester Vyman. “If I dispatched a raven to Ashemark, it may be that they could send a rider after him.”

So the news from Ashemark that Robb was riding to the nearby Crag did not come that day. When Robb returns he tells Cat how they took the ruinous Crag in a night and he got injured in the process.

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Lastly, Robb knew he had asked Edmure to hold Riverrun. So his plan if Tywin came west didn't rely on Edmure needing new instructions. It was designed so that Edmure and Roose could keep the status quo.

This is the part I don't understand. The Riverlords could field ~11,000 troops (~20,000 if they rejoined Edmure's host), Robb had ~6000 and Bolton had ~14,000. After the destruction of Stafford Lannister's army (which resulted in neglible northern losses), why didn't Robb march to surround Harrenhal? They only needed to starve Lannister out. They would have had open fields (giving his cavalry space to maneuver), the benefit of feeding off the Riverlands (and denying the Lannisters the ability to pillage) and they would have ~30,000 troops. Give the Blackfish or Marq Piper a couple hundred men to scour the Riverlands and kill any wayward Lannister forces (or even leave them to the BWB) and have the Greatjon pillage the Westerlands with a couple hundred men.

If Tywin marched out, he'd need rapid deployment to stop the Stark-cavalry just smashing his lines before they could form (Barristan's move in TWoW prologue is based on the necessity for Unsullied to form up. Westerosi infantry would be of similar necessity as organized > disorderly [boudicca vs Romans]) and would give Robb the ability to allow the Riverlands to recuperate some of its losses. It would've bought time for Stannis or Renly (who he assumed was marching on KL) or at the very least, it would've put Tywin in a very bad position. Does he storm out and try to break through, potentially losing thousands and his only stable holding that could provide rear-guard action (Harrenhal) to stop the Reachmen-Stannis and the West?

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This is the part I don't understand. The Riverlords could field ~11,000 troops (~20,000 if they rejoined Edmure's host), Robb had ~6000 and Bolton had ~14,000. After the destruction of Stafford Lannister's army (which resulted in neglible northern losses), why didn't Robb march to surround Harrenhal? They only needed to starve Lannister out. They would have had open fields (giving his cavalry space to maneuver), the benefit of feeding off the Riverlands (and denying the Lannisters the ability to pillage) and they would have ~30,000 troops. Give the Blackfish or Marq Piper a couple hundred men to scour the Riverlands and kill any wayward Lannister forces (or even leave them to the BWB) and have the Greatjon pillage the Westerlands with a couple hundred men.

If Tywin marched out, he'd need rapid deployment to stop the Stark-cavalry just smashing his lines before they could form (Barristan's move in TWoW prologue is based on the necessity for Unsullied to form up. Westerosi infantry would be of similar necessity as organized > disorderly [boudicca vs Romans]) and would give Robb the ability to allow the Riverlands to recuperate some of its losses. It would've bought time for Stannis or Renly (who he assumed was marching on KL) or at the very least, it would've put Tywin in a very bad position. Does he storm out and try to break through, potentially losing thousands and his only stable holding that could provide rear-guard action (Harrenhal) to stop the Reachmen-Stannis and the West?

This is all assuming that Tywin just sits at Harrenhal whilst these forces muster and march to the rallying point.

Or that he doesn't give battle using Herrenhal to anchor his line when they arrive.

There's also logistical issues (Riverlands already ravaged by the chauvachee campaign), the danger sallies pose with so many men in a single fortress etc. There's just tonnes of factors why it isn't just as simple as bottling someone up in a fortress because you have more men on paper.

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I did not put together that timeline so I have no vested interest in it. The timeline that the Crag takes place a month after the Fords makes much more sense then the Crag actually taking place before the Fords. Edmure as the Lord of the Riverlands would know exactly what day Robb took the Crag . I'm sure they got a raven on that day or the next so he would be able to call out Robb and the Blackfish when they give him grief about the Battle of the Fords but he does not because the Crag happened after the Fords.

How does it make more sense then actual martial from the book?

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This is all assuming that Tywin just sits at Harrenhal whilst these forces muster and march to the rallying point.

Or that he doesn't give battle using Herrenhal to anchor his line when they arrive.

There's also logistical issues (Riverlands already ravaged by the chauvachee campaign), the danger sallies pose with so many men in a single fortress etc. There's just tonnes of factors why it isn't just as simple as bottling someone up in a fortress because you have more men on paper.

Also don't forget that the Lannisters are raising another army in the West and Robb could get trapped between the two armies.

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From ACOK-45 (Catelyn VI):

ACOK-55 (Catelyn VII) takes place an unspecified amount of time later. Edmure has not yet returned to Riverrun, which is celebrating. Cat frees Jaime as she has learned of the "deaths" of Bran and Rickon.

ASOS-2 (Catelyn I) takes place shortly afterwards, with Desmond Grell and Utherydes Wayn confining Cat to Hoster's chamber.That evening Maester Vyman tells her "Lord Tywin has left the riverlands. All's quiet on the fords.", as well as "His Grace took a wound storming the Crag, but writes that it is no cause for concern, and that he hopes to return soon." Edmure returns the following day and tells Cat of the Blackwater.

ASOS-14 (Catelyn II) reveals the Freys left Riverrun hours after Edmure's return, having learned of Jeyne. Brynden also explains,

Even with the forced march and the Blackwater barges, it would take time for Tywin to reach KL. Considering it took twelve days for Robert's retinue to travel the Neck, however, I'm skeptical of Robb's cavalry taking a month to travel from Ashemark to the Crag. ACOK-45 takes about a week, with Catelyn thinking Tywin has reached the Blackwater. ASOS-14 confirms that Tywin fled the fords with a forced march. How long would it take to sail from the Tumbler's Falls / Stoney Sept region to KL? Has Riverrun been celebrating for weeks between ACOK-45 and ACOK-55?

GRRM has stated, "I have deliberately tried to be vague about such things, so I don't have obsessive fans with rulers measuring distances on the map and telling me Ned couldn't get from X to Y in the time I say he did ... But if you turn up any mistakes in travel times by using that measure, let it be your secret."

Good job with the quotes. And especially the SSMs. It takes me forever to find the ones I'm looking for.

I find it out-of-character for Robb, and even the Blackfish (who left Riverrun rather than be forced to marry), to concoct a story simply to force Edmure to marry a Frey girl.

So I have to believe Robb, and that Martin expects us to take it at face value, unless Martin himself confirms that Robb was indeed lying. And the reason for my stance is that Robb is written as a stand-up and honorable guy.

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Good job with the quotes. And especially the SSMs. It takes me forever to find the ones I'm looking for.

I find it out-of-character for Robb, and even the Blackfish (who left Riverrun rather than be forced to marry), to concoct a story simply to force Edmure to marry a Frey girl.

So I have to believe Robb, and that Martin expects us to take it at face value, unless Martin himself confirms that Robb was indeed lying. And the reason for my stance is that Robb is written as a stand-up and honorable guy.

Is it not possible that Robb formulated the plan while he was on the road in the West and thought it could have worked? Him, believing that it would have worked is not a guarantee that it would have done.

Many 'stand up guys' have been wrong, many can also be single minded and if he has convinced himself that Edmure was to blame for Stannis not winning Kings Landing then he is unlikely to be swayed by information from others.

Being honorable is not the same as being correct. Robb saying the plan would have worked is no guarantee it would have done so.

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Is it not possible that Robb formulated the plan while he was on the road in the West and thought it could have worked? Him, believing that it would have worked is not a guarantee that it would have done.

Many 'stand up guys' have been wrong, many can also be single minded and if he has convinced himself that Edmure was to blame for Stannis not winning Kings Landing then he is unlikely to be swayed by information from others.

Being honorable is not the same as being correct. Robb saying the plan would have worked is no guarantee it would have done so.

This is a better argument. I'm not insinuating that the plan was foolproof. If it sounds that way then I haven't noticed it.

I just try to argue against the belief that either Robb had no plan or that it was doomed to fail. And especially that it was concocted to force Edmure to marry a Frey.

The plan itself sounds good to me. The one thing we know about Robb, besides being a good guy, is that he continually came up with answers for the problems his enemies created. I think that both Stannis and Robb knew that Tywin was between a rock and a hard place. So they played off that desperation. And it showed when Tywin gambled that he could beat Robb and return to King's Landing before it falls.

Could Tywin have pulled it off? It's possible. But I wouldn't put the odds higher than Robb being able to pull off the far easier goal he set for himself. Stannis, admittedly, has the toughest goal of the three.

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And the Blackfish is the biggest hypocrite in the series. Refuses to marry and strengthen the Tully family yet blackmails his nephew into doing just that.

While i disagree with Edmure being a fool, this is even more ridiculous.

You have apparently not the slightest grasp of what characterization is, or else you'd understand why we have no reason to believe that Brynden Tully of all people would ever fucking do this. You can't just make stuff up to support your argument and state it as fact, ffs.

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He did, he and Robb, and Cat, pushed him to marry.

Yes because they believed Edmure had ruined their plans and needed to make amends. I was obviously referring to the lying and manipulating to blackmail his nephew into marrying a Frey girl.

Sounds like classic Blackfish, right?

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Little dragon mentioned nothing f lying, just blackmail and being a hyprocrite, all which Brynden was.



As to lying, well, Robb didn't know Stannis was even marching on KL till after the Fords began, make that what you will.


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