Frey Pie Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 I think they were counting on Tywins force being mostly foot(1/3 of his 20k was horsed). So any numerical advantage Tywin had would be lost. But once he lost the Frey 1k that plan would have fallen apart as it would be 6.5k chasing 5k presuming that the Freys dont there and then join Tywin.Pretty minimal difference tbh. Especially if Tywin separates his host and robb takes up a good defensive position. And it must be said Robb's mens morale would be huge after all their victories, and a hell of a lot of experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fallen Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Sure, but the idea Brynden would actually create such a plan and think it would work is beyond risk.I can break into your home, have you chase me around and then trap you in a room. Why? Because you don't have a crystal ball to know what I'm going to do.Tywin is going after Robb. He doesn't know Robb's plan. The Blackfish found a nice spot where they could block Tywin's passage to King's Landing. They just needed to keep Tywin there long enough for King's Landing to fall.Why is that so farfetched? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thelittledragonthatcould Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Pretty minimal difference tbh. Especially if Tywin separates his host and robb takes up a good defensive position. And it must be said Robb's mens morale would be huge after all their victories, and a hell of a lot of experience Losing 1/5 of your army is not minimal. It is actually a pretty significant setback. A 500 man advantage is salvageable, 1.5-2.5k is a Tywin win, especially on home soil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmarshal Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 If you break in my house I just call the police. Tywin is going after robb. He is going to know which area Robb is taking him in the chase, he is going to know if his men would get hurt. Robb's head hurts a lot more then Stannis maybe getting to the capital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fallen Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Because Stannis miraculously ended a siege that everyone thought would take forever, and thus Tywin had somewhere else he could justifiably be. If everything had continued as conventional logic dictated, Tywin would have been in a terrible spot. He may have been in an ideal place to get back to King's Landing in time for the battle, but that was literally it for his travel destinations. He couldn't stay in the Riverlands, as Roose had taken Harrenhal and that would have left him a sitting duck. If King's Landing wasn't suddenly and surprisingly being threatened, Tywin being repelled at the fords would have been a decisive defeat. Even if Roose failed to take Harrenhal, it was at least worth a push to see if it could be done, and even if it remained as a bastion for Tywin to retreat to, he'd be doing it in just that, retreat. His whole army would see that Tywin intended to be somewhere else, and was stopped and pushed back. He may be a guy that gets by on iron discipline, but that's going to hurt a medieval host badly in terms of desertion as lords and knights try to make their own way back to defend their lands from northern raiders. I mean, what's he going to do at this point? Pillage the Riverlands? Been there, done that. He'd be forced to withdraw and take the long way back to the west, or mope in Harrenhal while Robb returns the favor. Robb's entire argument is also flawed. Stannis is not a 'we could have made a peace' guy. Stannis is a 'we could have surrendered and probably lived' guy. The Lannisters losing King's Landing and Stannis ascending to the Iron Throne would have been bad for them, yeah, but it would have also been bad for the North. Tommen and Myrcella weren't in the capital, and were both well away from the fighting, the Lannisters still had the raw materials to forge the Tyrell alliance (assuming the Tyrells didn't just beat Stannis at King's Landing by themselves, securing all the glory and power in one fell swoop). It would have just left Robb once again, facing a vengeful Tywin with all the time in the world to chew him apart with a superior army.My bad on the previous post. I didn't read the entire post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frey Pie Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Losing 1/5 of your army is not minimal. It is actually a pretty significant setback. A 500 man advantage is salvageable, 1.5-2.5k is a Tywin win, especially on home soilThat's if the Freys leave and if Tywin leaves his infantry behind. A lot of ifs. And then there's the terrain to consider, Robb's preparation of the area etc. Even a 2k difference is salvageable in the right circumstances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thelittledragonthatcould Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 That's if the Freys leave and if Tywin leaves his infantry behind. A lot of ifs. And then there's the terrain to consider, Robb's preparation of the area etc. Even a 2k difference is salvageable in the right circumstances The Freys left. That happened, its not even a discussion. Robb made a decision to marry the Westerling girl and he knew what the Freys would think if it. A 2k disadvantage is salvageable in the right circumstances, but these are from the right circumstances as they are in enemy territory with the population loyal to Tywin. If someone was arguing that a 5k Lannister army could beat a 6.5k Northern army in the North you would be arguing against it, and you'd be right to as it's a ridiculous notion. It is only your heavily biased point of view that prevents you seeing that Robbs initial good plan was put hugely in jeopardy by marrying Jeyne. Edmure saved Robbs life, where is the gratitude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frey Pie Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 The Freys left. That happened, its not even a discussion. Robb made a decision to marry the Westerling girl and he knew what the Freys would think if it. A 2k disadvantage is salvageable in the right circumstances, but these are from the right circumstances as they are in enemy territory with the population loyal to Tywin. If someone was arguing that a 5k Lannister army could beat a 6.5k Northern army in the North you would be arguing against it, and you'd be right to as it's a ridiculous notion. It is only your heavily biased point of view that prevents you seeing that Robbs initial good plan was put hugely in jeopardy by marrying Jeyne. Edmure saved Robbs life, where is the gratitude?I've never once said that marrying Jeyne wasn't an involved only bad idea. I understand why he did it but politically it was an awful moveIn any case I am not sure of the time line but Iirc the Fords battle takes place before the Crag so the Freys are still with robb for some time. Would Robb attack the Crag with tywin on the way? Would he be spending his time having sex? Who knows? Might be irrelevant due to the timelineIn any case I would say that if it was vice versa the westerners would also have a chance. Both are led by good commanders, although I firmly believe Robb is the better battle commander. Bias doesn't come into it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmarshal Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Come on, Robb used Brynden's knowledge of the area to blind Jaime, and lucked the fuck out of the goat pass. Robb plan to take the north was awesome but the three victories to his name was team work. To say he is better then Tywin is ignoring Tywin has the same amount of experience as Brynden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frey Pie Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Come on, Robb used Brynden's knowledge of the area to blind Jaime, and lucked the fuck out of the goat pass. Robb plan to take the north was awesome but the three victories to his name was team work. To say he is better then Tywin is ignoring Tywin has the same amount of experience as Brynden. And Tywin also has a team- jaime who beat the river lords, marbrand, clegane etc. I never said it was any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmarshal Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 You say Robb was a better commander then Tywin, I find that unfounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frey Pie Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 You say Robb was a better commander then Tywin, I find that unfounded.How? The only time they faced each other Robb tricked Tywin, got in behind him and won a crushing victory. Tywin took up a position of strength and robb came up with and executed a plan to get Tywin away from his strong position Yes Tywin has experience but his record isn't incredible. He had a huge advantage for the Reyne Tarbeck rebellion, during Roberts all he did was sack a city, his fleet was burnt during the Greyjoy rebellion etc. He is a very competent general but I believe Robb has a dash of brilliance which Tywin doesn't. And really you can't talk about Robb's luck in comparison to a lot of the luck Tywin got e.g. Roberts timely death, Renlys timely death etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jasta11 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 It seems people treat ''Lannisters lose King's Landing'' as some sort of instant win condition, but really, how does it favor the North? Stannis has no intentions of letting Northern independence go, as me makes very clear to Catelyn. Furthermore, it's a setback for the Lannisters but not a total defeat. Tywin is still in the field, with an intact army. The Tyrells are still around, whatever side they support has a big advantage, and the Lannisters still have their bargaining chip in the form of Tommen, while Stannis has very little to offer to them. The war still rages on, and no one south of Riverrun will accept Northern secession. Even if Robb's plan works, it means Tywin's 20K army is now bearing down on his 5-6K one in enemy territory. No, it doesn't mean an automatic defeat, but Tywin is not Jaime, he's a very experienced commander who is leading the core of the Lannister army, instead of the drudges of Lannisport. It is extremely doubtful Robb would have been able to pull a second Oxcross on him. The only way it works is if he can capture Tywin AND Stannis takes King's Landing unopposed by the Tyrells, killing Cercei, Tyrion and Joffrey in the process. Then the Lannister family is in dire straits, but Kevan is still around. Tommen is still safe, and the Tyrells still have loads of troops and little interest in joining Stannis, and Stannis still has no interest in Northern independence if they do. So while I do think Edmure made a bit of a blunder for the sake of his glory, I also seriously doubt it changed much to the War. And as a commander, it's on Robb to ensure his underlings on whom is oh so brilliant strategy hinges on understand it. ''Hold Riverrun'' is so vague he might as well have told him ''don't get killed, now''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmarshal Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 What battle you speak of in your first line? The green Fork and woods? He has the advantage against Robb in the West. Sure he was brilliant, but it lied in sneak attacks, something I don't see working in Tywin's land. Sure the Lannisters had breaks, never said they didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeyBanana Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 I don't understand why Stannis or the Tyrells even matter. He wanted Tywin, that's the reason why Robb went west. He would've gotten his battle with Tywin, had Edmure not interfered. That's undoubtedly his uncles' fault because he engaged the enemy unnecessarily without thinking about the consequences. Yes, Robb may die or lose against Tywin but that's not the point. He lost his chance to take out the lion's head because Edmure prevented him from entering the trap (or whatever it was). Not to mention that Riverrun is not to be disregarded at Tywin's rear. His plan could have involved luring or driving the Lannister army in between his force and Edmure's, and suddenly his big disadvantage isn't so big anymore, but that's pure speculation on my part, of course. But so is claiming he had no proper plan at all and was just being bitchy to Edmure about some bad luck and his own failings. Yeah, right. Robb lost the war the very moment he was killed and not any second earlier. Everything before that were setbacks and defeats of which Edmure's blunder was one. I really dislike that everything here boils down to blame, whether it's victim blaming or blaming (someone like Cat) others who didn't commit the crimes/murders. However, this still doesn't mean that Robb was wrong and Edmure right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmarshal Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 We do know their plan, Brynden told us in Cat's second chapter in Storms. His battle with Tywin would include him facing Tywin 6,000 - 5,000 horse(5000 the number he would have had if Tywin entered, be it he lost the Freys, but 6000 is the plan number.) That is a huge point. The plan was to trick Tywin to a bad area in his own land. That is a terrible plan. Tywin knows he West and all in it, his people have no love for Robb after he raided them, Tywin all the advantage in the world. He wasn't going to meet in in the riverlands but in the west. This is after he was injured in the Crag and lost his men. Tyrells killing Stannis solo does matter at this point, and they would, they sent for Tywin but they were prepared for a trip to KL. Stannis was the last king they wanted and still unmanned him. They shut the door on Stannis when they captured his men. Tyrells kill Stannis alone and you know what that does? That leaves Stannis prefect amount of time to hunt Robb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thelittledragonthatcould Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 I don't understand why Stannis or the Tyrells even matter. He wanted Tywin, that's the reason why Robb went west. He would've gotten his battle with Tywin, had Edmure not interfered. That's undoubtedly his uncles' fault because he engaged the enemy unnecessarily without thinking about the consequences. Yes, Robb may die or lose against Tywin but that's not the point. He lost his chance to take out the lion's head because Edmure prevented him from entering the trap ( Tywin was waiting for him at the Green Fork, 20k Lannister men facing Robbs 20k Northen men, he could have even added another 4k to that with the Frey men. Robb chooses to forfeit that fight with Tywin and let Roose get beat. Throughout the Wot5k's Tywins whereabouts was known to Robb, he never chooses to face him. Robbs big plan for the West was to lead Tywin a merry dance and hope Stannis or Renly do the job for him. Robb had plenty of opportunity to face Tywin in the field, he continuously put it off. Tywin didnt have that luxury as he was facing more than one enemy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeyBanana Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Tywin was waiting for him at the Green Fork, 20k Lannister men facing Robbs 20k Northen men, he could have even added another 4k to that with the Frey men. Robb chooses to forfeit that fight with Tywin and let Roose get beat. Throughout the Wot5k's Tywins whereabouts was known to Robb, he never chooses to face him. Robbs big plan for the West was to lead Tywin a merry dance and hope Stannis or Renly do the job for him. Robb had plenty of opportunity to face Tywin in the field, he continuously put it off. Tywin didnt have that luxury as he was facing more than one enemy. This has nothing to do with Robb's plan. He chose to take out Jaime's and Stafford's host first and succeeded. Not sure why this conflicts with his intention to confront Tywin in the west later. Are you suggesting he should have besieged Harrenhal? No, he needed to force Tywin out of his safe castle and into a trap. Simply distracting him doesn't work at all. As soon as Stannis advances on KL, Tywin would try to retreat and Robb would be forced to attack, whether he wanted to or not, in order to stop him from defending KL. That's where his other forces at Riverrun and Harrenhal (or wherever Roose was supposed to be) could have been vital. It's absolute nonsense to claim he wanted Tywin to only chase him around and let Renly or Stannis do the fighting. He wanted to stop Tywin from entering the Battle of Blackwater Bay and unless he was prepared to engage the Lannister army somewhere in the west, that isn't going to happen. Had he intended to leave it to Stannis, he wouldn't have tried to draw Tywin away from him. The 20k Lannister army led by Tywin doesn't miraculously disappear once Stannis takes KL. The army still there and needs to be dealt with, not by Renly or Stannis or Moonboy, but by Robb himself. Again, it's another completely speculative argument that tries to paint Robb as some sort of incompetent imbecile who has no idea what he's doing and is scared shitless of Tywin Lannister. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeyBanana Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 We do know their plan, Brynden told us in Cat's second chapter in Storms. His battle with Tywin would include him facing Tywin 6,000 - 5,000 horse(5000 the number he would have had if Tywin entered, be it he lost the Freys, but 6000 is the plan number.) That is a huge point. The plan was to trick Tywin to a bad area in his own land. That is a terrible plan. Tywin knows he West and all in it, his people have no love for Robb after he raided them, Tywin all the advantage in the world. He wasn't going to meet in in the riverlands but in the west. This is after he was injured in the Crag and lost his men. Tyrells killing Stannis solo does matter at this point, and they would, they sent for Tywin but they were prepared for a trip to KL. Stannis was the last king they wanted and still unmanned him. They shut the door on Stannis when they captured his men. Tyrells kill Stannis alone and you know what that does? That leaves Stannis prefect amount of time to hunt Robb. No, it isn't. He had a plan and this thread is about whether Edmure is giulty of ruining said plan by ignoring his orders/not using common sense. We can speculate all day on who will win if Tywin gets past RR, but the thing is, he never did because of Edmure. That's the important part. The rest is a fun discussion and i'll repeat myself here, it's definitely a big gamble for Robb but not a 100% guaranteed victory for Tywin either. At this point, with Winterfell burned and Jaime released, Robb was in a desperate position and had to pull off one last "miracle", this time against the big, scary daddy lion himself. I think we can both agree that Stannis taking KL is far less helpful for Robb's cause than a dead or captured Tywin and the last Lannister host defeated and scattered. In my opinion, that was what he primarily wanted and focused on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thelittledragonthatcould Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Robb Starks master plan. "We were all horsed, The Lannister host was mainly foot. We planned to run Lord Tywin a merry chase up and down the coast, then slip behind him to take up a strong defensive position athwart the gold road, at a place my scouts had found where the ground would have been greatly in our favor. If he had come at us there, he would have paid a grievous price. But if he did not attack, he would have been trapped in the west, a thousand leagues from where he needed to be. All the while we would have lived off his land, instead of him living off ours" Problems with the plan are that he has no idea that the Tyrells have came into play or that Tywin had more horse than him. Or that Tywin would not know his own land better than the Northerners, Tywin who as a teenager is savvy enough to divert a nearby river to flood the impenetrable Castamere. His plan is full of flaws and instead of lambasting Edmure he should have been thanking him for potentially saving his life. Instead, he needs the Frey support if he wants to regain the North and have a chance of retaining his crown and his head, he needs Edmure to feel beholden so he can marry a Frey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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