Edmure v Robb Part 2: You'll hold what I tell you to hold!

[Frey Pie]

What battle you speak of in your first line? The green Fork and woods?

He has the advantage against Robb in the West. Sure he was brilliant, but it lied in sneak attacks, something I don't see working in Tywin's land.

Sure the Lannisters had breaks, never said they didn't.

Ya those two and oxcross. Robb never faced Tywin one on one but Tywin attempted to manipulate Robb a number of times- come to the green fork, come to Harrenhal, and wait for Stafford to come and we will beat you. Fact is Robb denied him each time and instead forced Tywin to dance to his tune

As for the land an terrain part. Alexander and hannibal both best superior armies on foreign soil, and at agincourt the terrain was used to annihilate a far superior force. These are obviously just examples and not overly akin to Robb's situation

[Ghosts Lunch]

From a So Spake Martin,

While GRRM is indicating here that Roose is still on the fence when he sups with Jaime in ASOS, it is also arguable that he commits to the Lannisters at the end of ACOK.

Regarding Harrenhal, another SSM states:

Also to clarify, it is not Martyn Rivers but one of his scouts who meets Catelyn before she arrives at Riverrun in ACOK-39.

I think the term "hold Riverrun and GUARD HIS REAR" speaks volumes

Generally I am pro Stark etc but as I said earlier, if Robb is out to trap Tywin, Edmure is the other side of that trap and needs to know, otherwise guarding the rear means not allowing the enemies main field army to come on and trap Robb's mainly horseman army which is committing raiding duties

[The Fallen]

Robb Starks master plan.

Problems with the plan are that he has no idea that the Tyrells have came into play or that Tywin had more horse than him. Or that Tywin would not know his own land better than the Northerners, Tywin who as a teenager is savvy enough to divert a nearby river to flood the impenetrable Castamere.

His plan is full of flaws and instead of lambasting Edmure he should have been thanking him for potentially saving his life. Instead, he needs the Frey support if he wants to regain the North and have a chance of retaining his crown and his head, he needs Edmure to feel beholden so he can marry a Frey.

Why does Robb need to know about the Tyrells? According to you the Tyrells are anti-Stannis. They would've been busy heading to King's Landing to take on Stannis.

And the plan is clear, they were going to block the road at a place where they had the advantage. Knowing the Blackfish and Robb, this place would probably not allow for much maneuvering by Tywin. Now let's say, for example, that they chose a spot where the road narrows and has high mountain walls on both sides, taking Tywin's numerical advantage away, Tywin's knowledge of his land isn't going to help him. In fact, it would just reinforce the problems he's now facing; stuck out west with no way of helping his family in the capital.

This is not Robb's master plan, he's teaching a master's course.

[Wmarshal]

Ya those two and oxcross. Robb never faced Tywin one on one but Tywin attempted to manipulate Robb a number of times- come to the green fork, come to Harrenhal, and wait for Stafford to come and we will beat you. Fact is Robb denied him each time and instead forced Tywin to dance to his tune

As for the land an terrain part. Alexander and hannibal both best superior armies on foreign soil, and at agincourt the terrain was used to annihilate a far superior force. These are obviously just examples and not overly akin to Robb's situation

One time, and tune quiet chancy.

True examples.

[Wmarshal]

Why does Robb need to know about the Tyrells? According to you the Tyrells are anti-Stannis. They would've been busy heading to King's Landing to take on Stannis.

And the plan is clear, they were going to block the road at a place where they had the advantage. Knowing the Blackfish and Robb, this place would probably not allow for much maneuvering by Tywin. Now let's say, for example, that they chose a spot where the road narrows and has high mountain walls on both sides, taking Tywin's numerical advantage away, Tywin's knowledge of his land isn't going to help him. In fact, it would just reinforce the problems he's now facing; stuck out west with no way of helping his family in the capital.

This is not Robb's master plan, he's teaching a master's course.

Because then this plan you seem so kin is real is in the shit and Tywin has a pocket of free time to hunt Robb.

How would Tywin not know where Robb is taking him? That is master class goes to the dump, it relies Tywin not to know his own land.

[Victor227]

The trouble is that we're expected to believe that Robb wanted a fight with Tywin in the westerlands, and that's just... ridiculous. The Freys were a huge part of his entirely mounted army, and they'd just bolted. The Karstarks were another huge part of his mounted strength, and in hindsight (which he so lambasts Edmure with), Lord Karstark was going to take his forces and go back to Riverrun to find out what happened when word arrives that Jaime was released. His army was falling apart. Heck, even his field commanders like the Greatjon and Mormont were driving cattle and taking plunder back east.

His plan was pretty ridiculous as well. He wanted Tywin to chase him, and then loop around him (Tywin is commanding the road in this case) and then take a position at his back where he had already passed. There's so much that can go wrong with that plan that it's not even funny. For one thing, Tywin himself is passing this amazing defensive point while chasing Robb. That means he gets first dibs on putting a few hundred archers and pikes there to keep Robb from doing exactly what he's planning on doing, and taking the point for himself. He certainly has the men to spare. He's got more horse than Robb, and a far larger army in terms of non-mounted troops as well. He knows Robb doesn't have anywhere to run on the road, and doubling back is his only option. Tywin is a methodical commander who has his own streak of free thinking (like what he did to Castamere, that was something no one had apparently ever thought to do), counting on him not to take advantage of a command point when he's already done stuff like fortify the Crossroads Inn is folly.

For another, Robb plans to literally loop around Tywin's force. It's not like the Lannisters are going to be going in blind. They've lost the outrider battle at every turn, that's going to be Tywin's main priority. He has the men to pull it off too, as he vastly outnumbers Robb in horse. Armies aren't swift shadows. Even with all cavalry, you're going to have supplies, weapons, armor, and spare mounts to cart around with you (unless Robb was planning to create his mid-road castle in a state that could be easily encircled and starved out within days), all Tywin has to do is catch wind of this movement, and hit him in the flank as he passes, and he's going to maul Robb's army and/or force it into a battle where it's going to be wiped out.

Next we have the matter of time. Time was on Tywin's side when the plan was conceived, with Stannis at Storm's End potentially for -years-, but certainly months. Even if you justify it with hindsight again, in that Stannis used an unpredictable assassination method to take the castle, Tywin's presence isn't even necessary to save King's Landing. The Tyrells outgun Stannis' army themselves, and have all the same elements of surprise on their side. Even if they don't move on King's Landing, too wimpy to act without daddy Tywin holding their hands and stealing all their glory for the Blackwater victory, King's Landing falling doesn't end the war. Stannis is more uncompromising than Tywin ever was, and Robb clearly states he's not giving up his crown. What's more, the Lannisters aren't even done, not by a long shot. They still have Tommen, and Tywin now lacks the burden of protecting King's Landing, and can take all the time he needs starving out Robb's position (because he has a ton more men and can reliably besiege him).

So even if everything went perfectly in Robb's favor, and you use hindsight to justify the holes in the plan at its inception, it's still not a good plan. He's used to being underestimated and fighting opponents who have no idea what his methods are and what he's capable of, and that was great for his early victories, but Tywin operates his armies by the book, and there's a reason why it's the book, because it works and works well.

And finally, there's absolutely no reason for Edmure to know this is Robb's plan. Robb never told him a damn thing about it, and it's an impossible plan to figure by sheer intuition (and you -never- let subordinate commanders try to guess what you're going to do if you need them to play a role in it), because it's an unlikely plan to begin with. Edmure saw the chance to deny Tywin a necessary move, embarrass him, and score a near-bloodless win against a larger army by using amazing defensive terrain. All the riverlords agreed to it, rivals included, and not one raised the specter of "What if Robb wants to face Tywin in the west, with his inferior army and patient opposition?". Is the Blackfish the only riverlander who knows a good plan when he sees it? Or did Bracken, Blackwood, Mallister, etc... see Robb's situation in the west as one that a vengeful Tywin could easily destroy?

[Frey Pie]

One time, and tune quiet chancy.

True examples.

Not following you

[Wmarshal]

He tried to move Tywin really once, and those are examples as you say.

I have no argument for your post.

[The Fallen]

I think the term "hold Riverrun and GUARD HIS REAR" speaks volumes

Generally I am pro Stark etc but as I said earlier, if Robb is out to trap Tywin, Edmure is the other side of that trap and needs to know, otherwise guarding the rear means not allowing the enemies main field army to come on and trap Robb's mainly horseman army which is committing raiding duties

It wasn't a trap. Robb was going to keep Tywin in the west.

[Wmarshal]

That is a trap.

[Nittanian]

In any case I am not sure of the time line but Iirc the Fords battle takes place before the Crag so the Freys are still with robb for some time. Would Robb attack the Crag with tywin on the way? Would he be spending his time having sex? Who knows? Might be irrelevant due to the timeline

From the middle of ACOK-45 (Catelyn VI):

Catelyn: Robb should know of this [the death of Cortnay Penrose and the fall of Storm's End] at once. Do we know where he is?

Vyman: At last word he was marching toward the Crag, the seat of House Westerling. If I dispatched a raven to Ashemark, it may be that they could send a rider after him.

Catelyn: Do so.

The chapter starts with Edmure leaving Riverrun to do battle and ends five or six days later with a messenger informing Cat of Edmure's victory (Lefford drowned, Strongboar captured, Addam denied three times, Gregor wounded) which occurred two days prior. According to Maester Vyman, Robb is already marching on the Crag when Tywin attacks the fords.

Then in ACOK-55 (Catelyn VII):

The walls of the keep [Riverrun] were thick, yet even so, they could hear the muffled sounds of revelry from the yard outside. Ser Desmond had brought twenty casks up from the cellars, and the smallfolk were celebrating Edmure's imminent return and Robb's conquest of the Crag by hoisting horns of nut-brown ale.

and

Jaime: Your boy must be feeling lonely.

Catelyn: Robb was sixteen a few days past ... a man grown, and a king. He's won every battle he's fought. The last word we had from him, he had taken the Crag from the Westerlings.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

F, Robb is already marching on the Crag when Tywin attacks the fords.

So Tywin could have stumbled on an injured Robb who had just lost the Freys.

He should be on his bended knee's thanking Edmure for his timely intervention.

[Frey Pie]

From the middle of ACOK-45 (Catelyn VI):

The chapter starts with Edmure leaving Riverrun to do battle and ends five or six days later with a messenger informing Cat of Edmure's victory (Lefford drowned, Strongboar captured, Addam denied three times, Gregor wounded) which occurred two days prior. According to Maester Vyman, Robb is already marching on the Crag when Tywin attacks the fords.

Then in ACOK-55 (Catelyn VII):

Intersting- thanks for the info.

With the battle lasting so long and the scouting out of tywins army which edmure did before this it seems he could have been able to alert Robb early enough to prevent him from attacking the Crag.

Would the Freys have deserted Robb with tywin on the way? Hard to say really, if they are not already in cahoots with tywin (which I doubt they were before the Blackwater?). Walder has the last say on this and his word will be a while in coming

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Would the Freys have deserted Robb with tywin on the way? Hard to say really, if they are not already in cahoots with tywin (which I doubt they were before the Blackwater?). Walder has the last say on this and his word will be a while in coming

Black Walder would be the next in command after Stevron died and he seems pretty pissed at Robb.

"With Ser Stevron, I might have been able to make amends, but Ser Ryman is dull-witted as a stone, and Black Walder ... that one was not named for the colour of his beard, I promise you. He went so far as to say that his sisters would not be loath to wed a widower. I would have killed him for that if Jeyne had not begged me to be merciful."

Robb Stark

[The Fallen]

From the middle of ACOK-45 (Catelyn VI):

The chapter starts with Edmure leaving Riverrun to do battle and ends five or six days later with a messenger informing Cat of Edmure's victory (Lefford drowned, Strongboar captured, Addam denied three times, Gregor wounded) which occurred two days prior. According to Maester Vyman, Robb is already marching on the Crag when Tywin attacks the fords.

Then in ACOK-55 (Catelyn VII):

This brings up more questions. That chapter lasts about a week. But the day Edmure leaves is the day they get the news about Storm's End surrendering to Stannis. It's possible that a raven and then a rider could alert Robb that Tywin is heading west. Which would allow Robb to plan for Tywin's arrival.

So the question becomes, when did Robb attack the Crag? Did it happen simultaneously with Edmure's battle? Did Robb attack the Crag, but leave scouts to alert him if Tywin showed up in the west? Did he wait for Tywin, hear that Tywin had been thwarted, and then attack the Crag?

Otherwise I'm left with two conclusions. Either Martin fucked up the timeline.

Or Robb was lying. Personally, I find the latter hard to swallow. For one, there is no other instance of Robb lying. Cat constantly remarks how much like Ned Robb is. Especially when it comes to honor and doing the right thing, even when it might be to his detriment. And Exhibit A would be Lord Rickard Karstark. That was a big blow when Robb could least afford it. Yet he did it because it was the right thing to do. It's hard to believe that a guy who would go to those lengths because of honor would lie about a plan simply to pressure Edmure into marrying in his stead.

[Wmarshal]

I don't think Martin f*ck up the timeline. Even Ned could lie.

[The Fallen]

Well, we know Ned lied about Jon and that's only because of R+L=J. As far as Westeros is concerned Ned never lied.

[Wmarshal]

As far as Westeros concerned Robb never lied.

[The Fallen]

And through multiple P.O.V.s we never hear of any lies Robb has told.

That's why I don't buy the "he lied about the plan out west" argument.

[Wmarshal]

Same as Ned.