Edmure v Robb Part 2: You'll hold what I tell you to hold!

[Blackfish Tully]

They still outnumber Stannis and can beat him with ease.

Maybe but before the shadowbaby it was a sure thing but after the shadow baby Stannis has some of the Storm Lords that were sworn to Renly so it's much less a sure thing . You take away Tywin's 20,000 battlehardened troops plus Tywin's leadership and Tyrion's mountain men killing Stannis scouts and creating a blind spot for Stannis and you have a battle that is no way a guaranteed victory.

[Blackfish Tully]

Stannis Baratheon is the last man that offers lordships like that. Mace Tyrell is never mentioned as cautious, instead a man who sees himself a brilliant commander. There is no chance he would lose to Stannis, He it outnumbers him, Mace was prepared to head to KL, his ships were ready to go when Tywin showed. Stannis is the last king he would want, it means his head and his family removal. The Reach powerful ords are mostly his relatives, only th small lords have that much beef with him.

Mace Tyrell is never mentioned as cautious? are you serious? Look up the word cautious in a Westeroes dictionary and you will find a picture of Mace Tyrell. He sat outside of Storms End for a year and then dipped his banners to Ned Stark without a peep.

[Wmarshal]

Mace Tyrell is never mentioned as cautious? are you serious? Look up the word cautious in a Westeroes dictionary and you will find a picture of Mace Tyrell. He sat outside of Storms End for a year and then dipped his banners to Ned Stark without a peep.

To starve and kill Stannis, that wasn't without purpose, are you saying that was the cautious move? The cautious move would have been to hunt a army less wall less Robert.

[Wmarshal]

Maybe but before the shadowbaby it was a sure thing but after the shadow baby Stannis has some of the Storm Lords that were sworn to Renly so it's much less a sure thing . You take away Tywin's 20,000 battlehardened troops plus Tywin's leadership and Tyrion's mountain men killing Stannis scouts and creating a blind spot for Stannis and you have a battle that is no way a guaranteed victory.

Tywin Lannister barely did anything, Garlan and the van wiped Stannis out. How does Tyrion's actions affect waiting for Tywin?

[thelittledragonthatcould]

where does it say that the Crag is a ruin?

Tyrion mentions it

"...the Westerling mines had failed years ago, their best lands had been sold off, or lost and the Crag was more ruin than Stronghold..."

[Nittanian]

I'm also pretty confident that it does not take a month to ride from Ashemark to the Crag.

"AGOT-Sansa I" states it took Robert's retinue twelve days to travel south through the Neck. I agree that Robb should have been able to reach the Crag sooner, since Ashemark is near the Crag (although there are hills/mountains between them).

where does it say that the Crag is a ruin?

In "ASOS-Tyrion III" Tyrion thinks, "The Westerling mines had failed years ago, their best lands had been sold off or lost, and the Crag was more ruin than stronghold. A romantic ruin, though, jutting up so brave above the sea."

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Joining Renly made perfect sense. The Reach plus the Stormlords gave them an overwhelming advantage over any other force. if it was not for the shadowbaby they would have destroyed Stannis with ease and had no problem taking Kings Landing.

They didnt join Renly, it is heavily implied that they influenced him into Usurping the Throne. Not really the actions of a cautious man.

[Wmarshal]

They didnt join Renly, it is heavily implied that they influenced him into Usurping the Throne. Not really the actions of a cautious man.

From Mace crowning him in HG, to filling his court with his family.

[JoeyBanana]

The whole "Radmure saved Robb's life" argument is based on two major speculations. The first is that Tywin would have absolutely, definitely destroyed Robb's forces and the Tyrells absolutely, definitely win Blackwater without 20k Lannister support. The second is that Robb and Blackfish lied to their uncle and nephew to trick him into marrying a Frey girl after he had just saved their lives.

Where is the evidence? There is none. We cannot look into Robb's head and we do not know how the Tywin vs Robb dance would have played out.

Just like there's no proof that Robb's plan would have actually worked or Stannis would have taken KL unopposed by the Tyrells because they'd hesitate to join Blackwater without Tywin.

And there is at least some text to support that 1) Robb's (or BF's) battle plans tend to work and 2) that Mace Tyrell is someone who doesn't do risky battles.

Again, it's ridiculous how Robb suddenly turned into an incompetent military commander, ungrateful spouse, and manipulating King because a biased opinion demands it. It's one thing to criticize his decisions and doubt his military genius aswell as his compentence as a KiTN in general, but to try and twist every single word or small action of his to fit into some "Robb is a stupid, lying boy King who got what was coming for him" head canon is ludicrous.

On the original question, i'd still argue that Edmure made a mistake and ruined Robb's only opportunity to meet Tywin on his terms (thus giving him at least a mild chance of success) but that it was at a point in time when the war effort was already doomed due to several other factors.

[Wmarshal]

The whole "Radmure saved Robb's life" argument is based on two major speculations. The first is that Tywin would have absolutely, definitely destroyed Robb's forces and the Tyrells absolutely, definitely win Blackwater without 20k Lannister support. The second is that Robb and Blackfish lied to their uncle and nephew to trick him into marrying a Frey girl after he had just saved their lives.

Where is the evidence? There is none. We cannot look into Robb's head and we do not know how the Tywin vs Robb dance would have played out.

Just like there's no proof that Robb's plan would have actually worked or Stannis would have taken KL unopposed by the Tyrells because they'd hesitate to join Blackwater without Tywin.

And there is at least some text to support that 1) Robb's (or BF's) battle plans tend to work and 2) that Mace Tyrell is someone who doesn't do risky battles.

Again, it's ridiculous how Robb suddenly turned into an incompetent military commander, ungrateful spouse, and manipulating King because a biased opinion demands it. It's one thing to criticize his decisions and doubt his military genius aswell as his compentence as a KiTN in general, but to try and twist every single word or small action of his to fit into some "Robb is a stupid, lying boy King who got what was coming for him" head canon is ludicrous.

On the original question, i'd still argue that Edmure made a mistake and ruined Robb's only opportunity to meet Tywin on his terms (thus giving him at least a mild chance of success) but that it was at a point in time when the war effort was already doomed due to several other factors.

Actually there is, as the fords began Robb was marching on the crag. By the time Tywin would have entered Robb would have been hurt, and the Jeyne thing would happen. He would have lost his host a 1000 men. Now Robb marching on the Crag at all should tell us something, that and the fact his men are divided among the west plundering shows not ready for Tywin. And of course, he ordered Edmure to guard his rear.

The Tyrells weren't hesitation, there ships were ready to go by the time Tywin showed up, they called Tywin up, it was all planned out.

Three times, against fools and rash Jaime. As to Mace, his a glory hound that thinks big of his military accomplishment, that is stated. He didn't need Tywin, Garlan smashed Stannis largely by himself.

This isn't twisting, it is using things in the book that shows Robb idea of having a lacking. No one is calling him stupid or a big liar, just someone who needed someone to marry the frey.

He wasn't getting Tywin on his terms, but Tywin in his backyard. The plan relied entirely on Tywin being ignorant of his own land.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

The first is that Tywin would have absolutely, definitely destroyed Robb's forces

I think it is fair to say that Tywin on home soil with 20k troops has an advantage over Robb and his 5k

that Mace Tyrell is someone who doesn't do risky battles.

How is it a risky battle? Mace has 60k men plus the 6k at Kings Landing, more than treble the amount Stannis has. The odds are heavily in the Tyrells favor with or without Tywin.

[Blackfish Tully]

I think it is fair to say that Tywin on home soil with 20k troops has an advantage over Robb and his 5k

The advantage that Robb has is that he does not have deadline while Tywin does. Tywin has to destroy Robb and get back to Kings landing to protect it from Stannis. Just getting Tywin to the West is a victory for Robb and if the odds look to be against them they can always go back to the safety of the Riverlands. Tywin knows that every day that he does not destroy Robb means that Stannis is one day closer to Kings Landing and he may make a rash decision because of the time pressure.

[Wmarshal]

The advantage that Robb has is that he does not have deadline while Tywin does. Tywin has to destroy Robb and get back to Kings landing to protect it from Stannis. Just getting Tywin to the West is a victory for Robb and if the odds look to be against them they can always go back to the safety of the Riverlands. Tywin knows that every day that he does not destroy Robb means that Stannis is one day closer to Kings Landing and he may make a rash decision because of the time pressure.

Tywin has no deadly line, a specially if Mace doesn't reach him, he marching on the West is already to late to stop Stannis. Now: Joffrey is already died, or Mace saved him. Either way Tywin has all the time in the world to kill Robb. How can they? The only way unguarded is to the South into the Reach, a land not on Robb's side. Robb Stark at this time is at the Crag, not in a condition to run from a more horsed Tywin host.

[Capt Captain]

The whole "Radmure saved Robb's life" argument is based on two major speculations. The first is that Tywin would have absolutely, definitely destroyed Robb's forces and the Tyrells absolutely, definitely win Blackwater without 20k Lannister support. The second is that Robb and Blackfish lied to their uncle and nephew to trick him into marrying a Frey girl after he had just saved their lives.

1) Significantly outnumbering Robb, being on home ground and knowing what Robb has done and could do generally puts Tywin at much better odds than Robb. The Tyrells had 60k men against the extremely bloodied men Stannis had, and with Loras' and Garlan's trick many of Stannis' remaining supporters switched sides. To say that Stannis would have still took the city is ridiculous. He also still had the Red Keep to go through...

2) Yeah they probably didn't lie, Robb thought he could win, and the Blackfish too, which means they had a chance to beat Tywin.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

The advantage that Robb has is that he does not have deadline while Tywin does. Tywin has to destroy Robb and get back to Kings landing to protect it from Stannis. Just getting Tywin to the West is a victory for Robb and if the odds look to be against them they can always go back to the safety of the Riverlands. Tywin knows that every day that he does not destroy Robb means that Stannis is one day closer to Kings Landing and he may make a rash decision because of the time pressure.

Stannis taking a fortnight to take Storms End was a huge surprise, he should have been there months.

Catelyn: Robb should know of this [the death of Cortnay Penrose and the fall of Storm's End] at once. Do we know where he is?

Vyman: At last word he was marching toward the Crag, the seat of House Westerling. If I dispatched a raven to Ashemark, it may be that they could send a rider after him.

Catelyn: Do so

.

The time pressure comes from the shadow baby, something no one could have predicted.

[Wmarshal]

Stannis taking a fortnight to take Storms End was a huge surprise, he should have been there months.

.

The time pressure comes from the shadow baby, something no one could have predicted.

Now you mention that, Robb didn't even know Stannis was heading to KL till after the Fords.

[The Fallen]

I agree with Joey Banana.

Lets say that Robb never had planned to lure Tywin out west and that Edmure saved Robb's bacon by stopping Tywin at the Fords. Why wouldn't Robb thank Edmure, explain to him how he messed up by marrying Jeyne Westerling while mourning his little brothers, and tell to Edmure that the only way to salvage an independent Riverlands and North is for Edmure to marry a Frey girl and would he be willing to do it?

Why would Robb make up a story about a plan he had to get Tywin in the west and trap him? All to browbeat Edmure into marrying a Frey girl?

The first scenario sounds like the Robb Stark we've witnessed throughout the books, both in always having a plan to possibly beat the Lannisters and in being honest and doing the right thing. The second scenario sounds like a shameful guy who would go to any lengths to blame others for his own mistakes.

[Wmarshal]

I agree with Joey Banana.

Lets say that Robb never had planned to lure Tywin out west and that Edmure saved Robb's bacon by stopping Tywin at the Fords. Why wouldn't Robb thank Edmure, explain to him how he messed up by marrying Jeyne Westerling while mourning his little brothers, and tell to Edmure that the only way to salvage an independent Riverlands and North is for Edmure to marry a Frey girl and would he be willing to do it?

Why would Robb make up a story about a plan he had to get Tywin in the west and trap him? All to browbeat Edmure into marrying a Frey girl?

The first scenario sounds like the Robb Stark we've witnessed throughout the books, both in always having a plan to possibly beat the Lannisters and in being honest and doing the right thing. The second scenario sounds like a shameful guy who would go to any lengths to blame others for his own mistakes.

Because Edmure probably wouldn't do it, something Brynden would told him. And lets look at the fact Robb did not even know Stannis was going to Kl till after Edmure set out for the Fords.

[The Fallen]

Ah, the Tyrells.

They have two options.

1. Head straight to King's Landing from Bitterbridge (after waiting for Mace to arrive with his magnificent 10k men). Catch Stannis with the river at his back and awaiting his infantry.

2. Wait for Mace's magnificent 10k to arrive at Bitterbridge. March away from King's Landing towards the Riverlands. Arrive at Tumbler's Falls. Send Tarly to the headwaters of the Blackwater Rush, further in the Riverlands, while they build rafts for 80k men (I doubt they carried them). Send a rider further into the Riverlands, to the fords, to alert Tywin that Mace is waiting for him. Tywin meets up with Tarly and they march to Tumbler's Falls. They meet up with Mace, get on the rafts and head down the Blackwater Rush. They disembark a half-day's march from King's Landing. They arrive barely in time to save King's Landing from the clutches of Stannis.

The first scenario sounds like that of a man who is not cautious and is going to ensure that Stannis does not capture King's Landing. It sounds like the actions of a man who has gone all-in. And it also sounds like the actions of a man who realizes that he can capitalize by taking Stannis in a weaker position, with the added benefit that if Tywin loses to Robb then the Tyrells control the Iron Throne through Joffrey and force of arms.

The second scenario sounds like that of a cautious man who isn't willing to go all-in unless Tywin is going to be sharing in the sweat and tears and losses. Like a man who isn't willing to go it alone and if Tywin doesn't show up then he can just return to the Reach and defend his lands while looking for another opportunity to present itself.

And let's not forget that the Tyrells didn't approach the Lannisters (as a risk-taker would have). So why should they risk all for a piece of paper?

And lastly, if Tywin hadn't made it to the rendezvous point, were the Tyrells going to still march on a Stannis-controlled King's Landing and lay siege to the Red Keep, a la Robert's Rebellion?

[Wmarshal]

Ah, the Tyrells.

They have two options.

1. Head straight to King's Landing from Bitterbridge (after waiting for Mace to arrive with his magnificent 10k men). Catch Stannis with the river at his back and awaiting his infantry.

2. Wait for Mace's magnificent 10k to arrive at Bitterbridge. March away from King's Landing towards the Riverlands. Arrive at Tumbler's Falls. Send Tarly to the headwaters of the Blackwater Rush, further in the Riverlands, while they build rafts for 80k men (I doubt they carried them). Send a rider further into the Riverlands, to the fords, to alert Tywin that Mace is waiting for him. Tywin meets up with Tarly and they march to Tumbler's Falls. They meet up with Mace, get on the rafts and head down the Blackwater Rush. They disembark a half-day's march from King's Landing. They arrive barely in time to save King's Landing from the clutches of Stannis.

The first scenario sounds like that of a man who is not cautious and is going to ensure that Stannis does not capture King's Landing. It sounds like the actions of a man who has gone all-in. And it also sounds like the actions of a man who realizes that he can capitalize by taking Stannis in a weaker position, with the added benefit that if Tywin loses to Robb then the Tyrells control the Iron Throne through Joffrey and force of arms.

The second scenario sounds like that of a cautious man who isn't willing to go all-in unless Tywin is going to be sharing in the sweat and tears and losses. Like a man who isn't willing to go it alone and if Tywin doesn't show up then he can just return to the Reach and defend his lands while looking for another opportunity to present itself.

And let's not forget that the Tyrells didn't approach the Lannisters (as a risk-taker would have). So why should they risk all for a piece of paper?

And lastly, if Tywin hadn't made it to the rendezvous point, were the Tyrells going to still march on a Stannis-controlled King's Landing and lay siege to the Red Keep, a la Robert's Rebellion?

You seem so proud to forget Mace agreed to join the Lannister cause at Britterbridge with Baelish, his fleets were rady by the time Tywin showed, and Baleish is the one that set up the plan of attack. He is the one that needed Tyrion out of power which needed Tywin.

Why not? They marched on him in the RR when they could have easily hunted a army less Robert.