Rickard Stark's Southron Ambitions

[Pikachu101]

Betrothing Lyanna to Viserys would never have happened. He was about six years old when the Tourney of Harrenhal took place. But I see your point.

That's an 8/9 year age gap, if Rickard was desperate I don't think he'd care. It's around the same gap as Margaery/Tommen after all. But it says a lot that there's no mention of him trying to get a Targaryen marriage.

Of course he might have offered her for Rhaegar at some point and been turned down by Aerys because the Starks weren't Valyrian enough for his taste. Makes sense considering they aren't Valyrian at all.

If he had offered them Lyanna someone would have mentioned it, just like they mentioned Tywin wanting Rhaegar for Cersei. Also him and Brandon wouldn't have reacted so angrily if a Targaryen marriage was something they wanted.

Rickard's Southern ambition was to increase the North's power down South, he wasn't trying to take the throne or make one of his kids king/queen. That argument has no substance.

[Pikachu101]

Why else would Rickard Stark marry his daughter to a man that was 4 in line for the throne. Remove the king, Rheagar, and Visenys as Aegon wouldn't have been born when they made these plans.

Yeah dude, FOURTH in line; Rickard saw the heir to the Stormlands not a potential claimant for the Iron Throne. There's a reason why Tywin wanted Rhaegar for Cersei, not Robert.

Where are these "plans" coming from? The only mentions of overthrowing Aerys came from Rhaegar.

Like I said before Rickard wanted to increase the North's influence on the South, there's no proof that he wanted to overthrow the Targs.

Tywin, Hosteen, Arryn, Baelish and Blackfish and more were fighting down in the Stepstones for the final Blackfyre rebellion.

Yeah to keep the Targaryen dynasty in tact.

The only thing that makes sense if that Rickard was gathering swords and alliances to topple the IT.

An alliance between the Rock, Stone, River,North and a split power base of the Reach and Dorne. The throne is almost theirs.

Except that we have proof that none of this is possible.

The Rock: Tywin wanted Rhaegar for Cersei, he was obviously hoping Elia would die sooner or later which is why he never betrothed Cersei to anyone else.

The River: Hoster didn't go to the Tourney of Harrenhal because he wanted nothing to do with Rhaegar's attempts to overthrow his father.

The Reach: they're loyal to the Targaryens, you're basically ignoring Robert's Rebellion if you think they'd side with the enemy.

Dorne: Elia was MARRIED to Rhaegar

That's the only outcome I can gather. That's why Rheagar held the tourney of Harrenhal.

No, he held it in the hopes of getting support against Aerys.

From there crowning Lyanna is served two fold. It tells the conspiritors that he's on to them but that him marrying Lyanna could be a viable solution.

No, it really doesn't. All I (and all the other readers) saw was Rhaegar finding the womb for his third head.

Support him and he will take the throne from his father, make your sister a queen and the realm need not bleed.

There's no evidence to suggest this, Rhaegar never made contact with the Starks and considering the fact that Lyanna's abduction was out of no where suggests that there was no plan for making her queen.

This whole argument is based on assumptions with no infallible proof.

[the conquoring bastard25]

Fourth in line for the throne and if he's attempting a coup, that would make his daughter queen of the realm and her grandchildren heirs to the entire realm.

We do have proof that Rickard was gathering swords and making alliances. Marrying his heir to the Riverlands and with a castle that sits on 3 points of the Trident and feeds in to the other branches, a castles that is vertically impregnable because it turns itself into an island.

You also have to think about this from a strategic point of view. War isn't just who has the bigger army, its about picking your battles and alliances.

Hosteen Tully was going to marry his younger daughter to Tywin's son Jamie Lannister, Cersi tells him so and that if he wanted to be close to her then he should take the white. You think that a pragmatic and intelligent man like Tywin didn't realize what Hosteen and other were doing. This marriage contract would have come after the King had decided not to marry Cersi to Rheagar. Up until that point there would have been anything for Tywin, but once he realized he wasn't going to be the grandfather to the future king did he decide to get with Hosteen and was going to use his son as the coin to buy his way into this alliance.

The Reach are natural allies for the Targs as they were raised high under Aegon, one false move or backing the wrong horse in war, could mean the end of them and their claim to High garden. The Florents are always mentioning that their claim to Highgarden is the true claim not the Tyrells whom by rights were only stewards in the first place. That's like house Poole taking over Winterfell upon a foreign king word, while house Karstark should have the claim based on blood.

Selmy in his point of view mentions that after some time at Harrenhal, Whent and his brother make the arrangements for the Tourney. Whent who is the good brother of Hosteen Tully, the same Tully, daughters nor any other Tully was present at the tourney. Yet this was given in territory, the king was there, by rights he should have been there.

Then there is this, Jon Arryn wasn't there neither was Rickard Stark, the only Lord Paramount that was involved in the scheme to take over the crown was Robert.

These lord Paramounts weren't there but they were scheming for the throne, that's just too much of concoindence for my taste. It feels wrong.

Whent was later at the Tower of Joy, and may have died to protect Jon and Lyanna. You are telling me that Vary's is telling the King to go to the tourney because men are scheming for your throne. That Aerys whom was already afraid that his son was lusting after his throne, so he decides to leave the Red Keep for the first time in many years to attend a tourney for no other reason but shits and giggles.

Vary's was procured for no other reason but for his skill with whisphers and finding out what needs to be found out, didn't know anything of this plot and just told the king to go for no reason? Come on

Ser Barristan knew that something was underfoot, but he wasn't truest like others in the Princes company.

The pretext was for the realm to know the prince and the prince to know the realm.

SO your telling me that these same houses Rock marring into the Riverlands for no reason?

The Riverlands were marrying into the Reach and a powerful house of the reach at that for no reason?

Dorne may have married into the Targ family but what about Ned's suppose romanace with Ashara Dayne she's not Dornish is she I can't remember? I must have made a mistake when I was looking at the houses that were going to marry each other.

Jamie and Lysa= Rock + Riverlands

Blackfish Tully and Beth Hightower= Riverlands and Reach

The only reason that these plans didn't come to anything is because one took holy vows and the other refused flat out! Otherwise they would have married. Giving house Tully access though marriage their troops and ships. The ships are something that house Stark lack, and they would be of use against the sea snake's fleet.

Have you ever heard of this little thing called reading between the lines?

Not everything that GRRM writes is black and white, some things one has to read or put 2+2= to get the right answer.

Rickard was either wanted to topple the throne or he was going to cede from the realm.

That's my opinion, you can talk until your blue in the face, type til your fingers bleed, I don't care, until GRRM states in either writing or interview that Rickard had no ambition and he wasn't going to go against the Throne, I'm going to believe otherwise.

Having Riverrun on their side and it's vassals which includes house Whent and Harrenhal, which could house an entire Northern army without breaking sweat.

[PrinceHenryris]

@ the conquering bastard25, I think your secession idea might have some merit. It seems like Rickrd is marrying/fostering his children to Great Lords who had warred against Witerfell in the past. It makes sense. I wonder though, if that was the case, why wasn't Benjen sent to an Iron Islands family? I would have suggested the Harlaws for Benjen.

That said, I don't understand why Rickard would have "Southron Ambitions". He's the Great Lord of the largest of the Seven Kingdoms. The North has basically been left alone by the IT. Why not just stay in the North and enjoy all the perks of being a King without the burdens of a crown?

My only guess is that there were taxation issues.

[Hippocras]

You're letting your imaginations run away with you on this thread!

Arranging marriages with neighbouring lords like the Tullys and Arryns: perfectly normal behaviour, and tends to mean one is securing peace among neighbours, no more.

Baratheons, meanwhile, are the descendants of the Storm Kings, and the historic enemies of the Ironborn. Baratheons were also among the only supporters, along with the North, of the claim to the throne of Rhaenys the queen who never was. She was passed over for being female, but the normal order of succession would have made her queen. So there is some historic basis for common cause between these families.

If I had to guess, I would say Rickard's alliance goals were about the Ironborn invasions under Dagon circa 211, and not at all about Targaryens and the Iron Throne.

[the conquoring bastard25]

Or it's a pride thing.

His line and family are the only house that didn't give the conquer battle, that they just had dragons and he didn't want his men to face that.

Other than that, the North is like America before Vietnam. Up until then America had never lost a foreign war. Pride is a heck of a thing.

It's surprising also that Ned didn't have a match made for him before that, by rights he should have had an arrange marriage before Lyanna, as the second son.

This next part is something that I thought up while I was smoking a cig.

It wasn't Hightower that Blackfish was to marry it was a Redwyne which is even better.

Now if war had broke out, the Redwyne fleet could be used to attack and sack Oldtown. That's going to create a natural choke point at the southern tip of Westeros.

That also keeps the Hightower forces close at hand and they can't be deployed though out the reach or even to the Capital to help the royal family as they have to protect their lands first.

Use Riverrun as a command station in the Riverlands. That way Tywin can funnel men in to the Trident through Riverrun. OR the opposite, use the Tumblestone it's tributaries go all the way to the crag and ashmark. To the North the red fork feeds all the way to Hornford and the Golden tooth. Long ships could be used to supply troops and food at need to the Trident troops.

Having the Stormlords on your side they can be used to engage to Dornish that would be coming up through the Dornish Marshes. That cuts them off from where they need to be.

Send in a troop force from Yronwood and Starfell to place Sunspear under siege, Dornish men fight best when fighting in dorne. That's taking care of the Dornish that might have supported the crown. As the Yronwoods have fought on the side of 3 blackfyre rebellions, with the promise that Dorne and it's rule would be left to them, I could see them fighting for Stark. Especially as Quenton hadn't been born yet, so he wouldn't have been able to repair the rift between the two houses.

Use the Arryn fleet to engage to Sea Snakes fleet if they decide to come north and try and take White Harbor. Use the three Sister's to lure ships to their doom or hid a fleet in that alcove to engage the enemy if they come that far north.

When I made my statement, I had thought of those angles, because I looked at what Dustin said and thought of it like a game of chess. What would I need for the starks to win if they were making a play for the throne.

They would need a secure base of operations to fall back to and deploy troops. Harrenhal and Riverrun meet those needs.

They need ships and allies that have ships. Redwyne and it's fleet along with the alliegence of house Arryn takes care of that as well.

Having Robert with his claim to the throne and having the stormlands on their side they can engage the enemy on two fronts. By deploying troops from Summerhall, it's the natural choke point of the three southern lands.

I didn't make this decision lightly, I took my time and thought about the pros and cons of this.

[Hippocras]

It is a misplaced assumption that everyone always wants the throne of the seven kingdoms. I absolutely dispute that assumption.

Ambitions are not by default about the throne even if they do exist.

[the conquoring bastard25]

I also put forth the theory that maybe it wasn't about the throne but maybe independence from the IT and those other regions also. The only way that can happen is if they fight. Having Lyanna marry Robert could just be a back up plan if they win but only on the terms that they seat a new king. Robert out of any of them have the best claim as his come from 2 generations passed not more than that like in house Arryn or maybe in house Stark.

I also looked at the house that his supposed allies were marrying their heirs into to base my thoughts off of as well.

I agree not everything is done for a throne, but that's not the times or type of realm they live in. Power and the gathering of said power is the name of the game. How well you wield that power after you get said power and are you craft enough to use the power.

That's what it was like back then and this is martins interpretations. So yes everything was done for the throne or to wield the power behind the throne.

[Hippocras]

I also put forth the theory that maybe it wasn't about the throne but maybe independence from the IT and those other regions also. The only way that can happen is if they fight. Having Lyanna marry Robert could just be a back up plan if they win but only on the terms that they seat a new king. Robert out of any of them have the best claim as his come from 2 generations passed not more than that like in house Arryn or maybe in house Stark.I also looked at the house that his supposed allies were marrying their heirs into to base my thoughts off of as well.I agree not everything is done for a throne, but that's not the times or type of realm they live in. Power and the gathering of said power is the name of the game. How well you wield that power after you get said power and are you craft enough to use the power.That's what it was like back then and this is martins interpretations. So yes everything was done for the throne or to wield the power behind the throne.

If independence was their goal, they would simply have claimed independence when they won Robert's Rebellion and left the South to figure out their own future.

[the conquoring bastard25]

not if Ned didn't know that was the goal or Robert. Those plans could have been need to know until they had all of there players in a row. And then Aerys throws a monkey wrench in the plan and names Jamie to the Kings guard. Rheagar wants to hold a tourney to talk about overthrowing his father, then Aerys decides to go to that as well. Then Rheagar decides that he's going to show the realm he knows about the plot and names Lyanna the queen of love and beauty.

Symbolically he's showing them that there is another way that not lead to bloodshed.

[joluoto2]

We don't know exactly what the Southron ambitions were. They could be putting their own candidate on the throne, it could just be a block meant to curtail Aerys' powers, or perhaps the plan was just to force Aerys to abdicate early, or as some people say, to dissolve the throne. We don't have the information needed to come to a conclusion to what Rickard had in mind with his Southern Alliance.

[the conquoring bastard25]

That's the truth, nobodies theory is right or wrong because we lack the entire story, so all we can do right now is speculate and make theories.

[Modesty Lannister]

I think the two main players here are Hoster Tully and Jon Arryn. If Rickard was anything like Brandon (and we simply do not know), he was convinced by the formidable Tully/Arryn duo that he SHOULD have southern ambitions.

Let's see who's done or attempted to do what before RR?

1. Hoster Tully planned to marry:

- Catelyn to Brandon Stark, heir to Winterfell i.e. forge an alliance with the North

- Lysa to Jaime, heir to CR i.e. forge an alliance with Westerlands

- Edmure to Arianne, heiress to Sunspear i.e. forge an alliance with Dorne

- Blackfish to Bethany Redwyne i.e. forge an alliance with the part of the Reach aristocracy that descended from the House Gardener, so potentially power hungry for the Lord Paramount of the Reach position

So, he was planning to become the father-in-law of Westeros safe for the Targaryens

2. Jon Arryn fostered:

- Robert Baratheon, the heir to Stormlands whose family died and who was supposed to be in Storm's End ruling just like Bran did when Robb went south. Instead, he is in the Eyrie. Why? We don't know. All we know is that Arryn managed to turn House Baratheon from a staunch supporter of the House Targaryen into its largest foe. Incidentally, in case of a total demise of Targaryens, Baratheons as their cousins stood to inherit the throne

- Ned Stark. Why? Brandon was fostered by Dustins, a house loyal and sworn to the Starks. Why send Ned so far away to another lord Paramount? Was Ned a hostage sent by Rickard in good will to seal the marriage deal between Robert and Lyanna? And who did they originally plan to wed Ned to? I'd like to know that piece of information. Judging from Brandon's introduction of Ned to Ashara Dayne at the Harrenhal feast, it may have been her. I think Rickard's southern ambition came down to promises by Tully and Arryn that Lyanna will become the queen in exchange for northern swords in rebellion.

So, from all we know, it was Jon and Hoster who planned all the alliances and the whole rebellion way before Harrenhal tourney. Marriages between houses of Lords Paramount were not customary. So, no wonder Aerys was suspicious. He knew Targs would be left isolated in Crownlands.

Then, the plan started to collapse because:

- Jaime became a KG

- Blackfish refused to marry

- Arianne rejected Edmure

- Lyanna fled with Rhaegar

- Brandon stupidly rushed to KG to call on the crown prince to "come out and die" committing high treason and causing his father's death. This point is important. Knowing what we know of Brandon, it may be argued that Arryn/Tully counted on this reaction thus enacting plan B.

_______________________

So, plan B was:

- marry Lysa to Jon instead of Jaime

- promise Tywin what was promised to Rickard and use his rage against Aerys' refusal to marry Cersei to Rhaegar and his decision to rob him of his heir who was effectively a KG/hostage to let Tywin do the dirty work, take all the blame, but get the half of what he desired - Cersei as the queen

- count on Mace's lack of decisiveness in the field of battle

- count on Ned's honour i.e. that he will obey his father's promises to Tully/Arryn without getting anything in exchange, but a forced marriage to Catelyn

- count on Doran's prudence

So, it worked, but the greatest winners were Jon Arryn and Hoster Tully. Robert was Arryn's puppet who signed everything Jon brought him much like Tommen is doing as king. Tywin got to pay for everything and take all the blame while Starks lost almost everything.

[Mithras]

Not to mention a marriage and a tourney were used as the cover of the Second Blackfyre Rebellion.

[Hippocras]

Oberyn and Elia made a large tour to several lords houses to look for matches. Contrary to what was said above it WAS in fact customary for high lords to arrange marriages between families. There are several examples given in the books.

So this case for ambitions is based on an incorrect premise. You say he was doing something outside of the norm. But he was not.

[Modesty Lannister]

Oberyn and Elia made a large tour to several lords houses to look for matches. Contrary to what was said above it WAS in fact customary for high lords to arrange marriages between families. There are several examples given in the books.

So this case for ambitions is based on an incorrect premise. You say he was doing something outside of the norm. But he was not.

It was explicitly said in the books that marriages between lords paramount were not customary. I am not at home now, so I cannot provide the quote, but I will when I get home.

[The Fallen]

` I would say it falls somewhere in the middle. Most Lords Paramount marry their kids to their bannermen as a way of strengthening alliances. But I think the reason we don't see more agreements between Lords Paramount is that there are only seven of them, so I imagine their children don't always align, age-wise.

[Winterfell is Burning]

Why else would Rickard Stark marry his daughter to a man that was 4 in line for the throne..

Because he was Lord Paramount of the Stormlands? And Robert was the one that proposed the marriage, not the other way around.

[Winterfell is Burning]

` I would say it falls somewhere in the middle. Most Lords Paramount marry their kids to their bannermen as a way of strengthening alliances. But I think the reason we don't see more agreements between Lords Paramount is that there are only seven of them, so I imagine their children don't always align, age-wise.

This. For example, there's really no female who's Mace Tyrell's age- everyone else was about 10 years younger or older, except Elia, who married Rhaegar.

And also there's storywise reasons: if, say, Stefon Baratheon's wife was a Tyrell, it wouldn't make sense for them to support the Targaryens over them or if Rickard Stark had an Arryn wife, there would be no need to send Ned there to increase the ties, etc.

[Lord Martin]

IMO, Rickard's "Southron Ambitions" were the Maesters using the Great Lords to their own ends. Lady Dustin tells us as much.

Before Aegon's conquest, who ruled the Seven Kingdoms? Some may say that is a trick question because there were no seven kingdoms. But I say in the absence of a unified ruler, the maesters ruled Westeros. They controlled the means of communication between the great lords, sat in on their counsels, raised their children and generally had their fingers in all the pies.

IMO, the maesters have been trying to end the unification of Westeros since it began. First, they killed off all the dragons (the animals), next they fomented rebellion to kill off the human dragons. The goal was to again separate westeros into multiple kingdoms so that the maesters could again be the most influential organization in the land.

They suggested the Tully marriage to Lord Rickard that appears to be a major lynchpin in the mounting alliance against the Targs. And obviously it worked via Robert's Rebellion.