Rickard Stark's Southron Ambitions

[Lady Blizzardborn]

I agree with you that alliances are useful, necessary, and often about securing swords or at least preventing said swords from being used against you.

Most of your post just above this I am quite fine with.

I am simply disputing that securing these alliances was offensive rather than defensive. I dispute that it was about CLIMBING the power hierarchy, rather than simply securing the positions they each already held.

After the Dance, the Seven Kingdoms were left without dragons, which was the entire basis for their having a common ruler in the first place. Without the threat of dragons, they were looking for ways to secure peace amongst themselves. Basis for common cause.

The North held the North and didn't technically need a Southron alliance. Why else would Lady Dustin mention that he had Southron ambitions unless it was unusual for a Stark Lord to betroth his children down south?

I've never held that he wanted one of his kids on the throne, but clearly he was moving them up in the world by marrying them to powerful families throughout the realm rather than just keeping a monopoly on the North. And he had to know there was a possibility a descendant down the line (probably way down the line) could end up in the royal family through the Baratheon connection alone. Jocelyn Baratheon married a Targaryen. There could have been other BaratheTarg marriages that we just haven't heard of.

He was connecting his family to the other most powerful families in the realm beyond what any other Northern lord had done. It wasn't just about defensive strategy, because the North had never been lost, and the King Who Knelt did so because of Aegon I's dragons. As no one has dragons anymore at this point, the North is in no danger of being overrun by anyone. So there's no need for the alliances from a defense angle.

It could be that the idea from Arryn down to Tully (shame there isn't a Z surname in Westeros) was to support Rhaegar's displacing his crazy father. In that case it makes sense to ally the North, Vale, Riverlands and Stormlands with something more binding than words. Dorne would have been a given since Rhaegar was married to Elia. That's most of the realm. Actually that connects all the dots nicely, without Rickard's ambition being over-the-top power grabs.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Jon making Ned his heir is a possibility, and if Brandon hadn't messed things up it could have happened. I've always found it odd that Rickard hadn't betrothed Ned to anyone, but if he was expected to become Arryn's heir maybe there was a quiet agreement that Jon would choose Ned's bride.

[Hippocras]

The North held the North and didn't technically need a Southron alliance. Why else would Lady Dustin mention that he had Southron ambitions unless it was unusual for a Stark Lord to betroth his children down south?

I've never held that he wanted one of his kids on the throne, but clearly he was moving them up in the world by marrying them to powerful families throughout the realm rather than just keeping a monopoly on the North. And he had to know there was a possibility a descendant down the line (probably way down the line) could end up in the royal family through the Baratheon connection alone. Jocelyn Baratheon married a Targaryen. There could have been other BaratheTarg marriages that we just haven't heard of.

He was connecting his family to the other most powerful families in the realm beyond what any other Northern lord had done. It wasn't just about defensive strategy, because the North had never been lost, and the King Who Knelt did so because of Aegon I's dragons. As no one has dragons anymore at this point, the North is in no danger of being overrun by anyone. So there's no need for the alliances from a defense angle.

It could be that the idea from Arryn down to Tully (shame there isn't a Z surname in Westeros) was to support Rhaegar's displacing his crazy father. In that case it makes sense to ally the North, Vale, Riverlands and Stormlands with something more binding than words. Dorne would have been a given since Rhaegar was married to Elia. That's most of the realm. Actually that connects all the dots nicely, without Rickard's ambition being over-the-top power grabs.

The North had never been lost, no, but there was a constant threat from the wildlings beyond the wall. Every few decades there would be a new King Beyond the Wall, planning a new assault. The North was dependent on recruits being sent from everywhere in the kingdoms to orotect itself against this threat, but because no one south of the Neck had any experience with this problem no one took it seriously.

So by defensive, that is what I meant. The North needs the South to take the threat of the far North seriously, and a good way to do that is to marry into Southern families.

The Ironborn invasions, meanwhile, prove that the North is vulnerable to attacks via the sea. Dagon Greyjoy showed the North could, in fact, be conquered that way.

[Saintwalker]

From a defensive point of view, Lord Rickard would have married his children to other Northern Lords, since they posed the greatest threat of overthrowing the Paramount and taking his place, the other Lords Paramount don't pose as much a threat. And I don't know if I read it in the books, or in a forum, but it seems the Starks used to preserve the Northern/Firstmen blood, religion and traditions by marrying in the North. If Lord Rickard was making moves to marry his children to other Lords is because something else was on the play. Since the Targs had no more Dragons, and were considered outsiders, what was keeping the Lords from overthrowing them and turn back to the ways BC ? I do think that since the Dance of the Dragons there would have been many plots to send them back to Dragonstone, and I do believe the Rebellion was gonna happen either way. My real question is, if there was a plot going on, they wanted separation or to keep KL ?

[Modesty Lannister]

The North had never been lost, no, but there was a constant threat from the wildlings beyond the wall. Every few decades there would be a new King Beyond the Wall, planning a new assault. The North was dependent on recruits being sent from everywhere in the kingdoms to orotect itself against this threat, but because no one south of the Neck had any experience with this problem no one took it seriously.

So by defensive, that is what I meant. The North needs the South to take the threat of the far North seriously, and a good way to do that is to marry into Southern families.

The Ironborn invasions, meanwhile, prove that the North is vulnerable to attacks via the sea. Dagon Greyjoy showed the North could, in fact, be conquered that way.

There were 6 king's beyond-the-wall as long as north could remember. Mance Rayder is younger than Rickard, so he wasn't even in the picture at the time Rickard nurtured his "southern ambition" to quote on Lady Dustin. The last king-beyond-the-wall was threatening the north over a 100 years before Rickard's time and that was Raymun Redbeard.

Historical Kings-beyond-the-Wall

• Raymun Redbeard. He was king some 150 years ago.
• Bael the Bard. Bael was a famous bard, raider and womanizer. According to the wildlings he went to Winterfell as a bard and impregnated the daughter of the lord. When he was king, he led the wildlings against the Wall, where he was killed by his own son, who had inherited Winterfell. Later, his son was skinned by the Boltons in their centuries-long struggle for dominance.
• Gendel and Gorne. The brothers Gendel and Gorne were joint kings some 3,000 years ago. They made a tunnel under the Wall and invaded the North. Gorne managed to slay the Stark king but was killed by his son and heir. According to the people of the North Gendel and the remaining wildling army were killed by the armies of the Starks, the Night's Watch and the Umbers. In the wildling stories, Gendel led his people back to the tunnels, but they could not find the exit. His children and descendents are said to still live underground, and are always hungry.
• The Horned Lord
• Joramun. A contemporary of the Night's King, the thirteenth Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. Together with the King of Winter they defeated the Night's King. Another story tells of how he found theHorn of Winter and woke the giants.
• Mance Rayder

[Hippocras]

Ok, so I exaggerated. But the wildlings were a threat, as were the Ironborn.

[Modesty Lannister]

Ok, so I exaggerated. But the wildlings were a threat, as were the Ironborn.

Yes, they were and I agree with your point about the NW, although that's an objective assessment and not something we know Rickard was personally concerned with. We know that Ned thought about repopulating the gift and my question is who would want to live there, but the wildlings, but that is another question altogether. As for the Ironborn, we know that they raided the western coast and invaded Riverrun at the time of king Harren, but they never dared do anything similar since Aegon's landing. Even the Greyjoy rebellion did not go further than Lannisport. So, if I follow your logic, I'd conclude that Tullies and Lannisters had more reason for concern about the Ironborn than the Starks. Look, the book 1 is called the Game of Thrones. The TV show is called the Game of Thrones. That's because that's what it is and was a generation before the one we started to follow in the beginning of book 1. GRRM gave us enough material in his other stories about Westeros, as well as in ASOIAF to prove that point. Why think of Starks as some saints, just because Ned was honourable or more likely sick of the game of thrones that cost his father, brother and possibly sister their lives? Starks are like all other powerful families. They seize an opportunity when they see it. Did Robb refuse to be the King in the North? No. Why? Because he was presented with an opportunity and he took it. And he lacked experience and wisdom to see possible pitfalls. So, why wouldn't Rickard Stark seize the opportunity to have daughter as the queen of Westeros when sweetly presented with that possibility by the lord of his kin in the east Jon Arryn? Who would say no to that? And, as you said, it would strengthen the recruitment of the NW and defence against the Ironborn.

[ground_control]

Prior to Aegon's Conquest, the Seven Kingdoms were fully independent and frequently at war. Then Aegon lands and unifies Westeros, and it seems to be more peaceful than it was. However, in the several hundred years since the Conquest, the Dragons have faded, and the Targaryens have had several civil wars, the most recent of which (the Ninepenny Kings) was when Lord Rickard and the other "conspirators" met.

As has been mentioned, it was uncommon for the Lords Paramount to marry outside of their own lands. Had this continued, and had the Targaryens continued to decline, then there would be a good chance that the central authority could disappear, and the Seven Kingdoms would splinter back to how they were pre-Conquest.

By forming strong [narriage] alliances between the Lords Paramount, the strength/unity of Westeros would become less dependent upon the strength of the Royal Line. This would also affect the balance of power between the King and the Lords Paramount in the favor of the Lords. Lord Rickard and Jon Arryn don't have to be planning to remove House Targaryen or seat one of their own on the throne in order for their ambitions to be against the immediate Targaryen interest.

[Fool of a Book]

Why has no one brought up Walys Flowers, bastard of a Hightower woman and an Archmaester?

He was the one who prompted Rickard for the alliances/marriages.

[the conquoring bastard25]

Bravo Bravo, Thank you... Just because one lord at one time in a certain house doesn't like to play the game doesn't mean that the lord before didn't have the same views.

Ned's actions about not having marriages in place for his children. That he's not making alliances that would benefit of his family actually is strange given the time frame that we are talking about.

Yet when you find out that his father was playing the game and lost well then his actions make sense.

The North and the Starks have been a powerbase for generations.

Then take into consideration some of the other players involved. Jon Arryn is a good politician but lacks the family to make to needed connections to make alliances outside of the vale or join it with other regions. But Jon does have the Vale itself as a very rich plum to be offered to someone of the right blood. That's where Ned would fit in perfectly and bring a lasting peace between the too as they are now tied by blood. Think about the speech that the lord of the sisterton gave to Davos. That the Falcon and Direwolf had been picking at the bones of the isles for years. There is a reason that this series is called a game, because it mirrors how politics were played back then. Marriage was the easiest way of throwing your enemies off guard and making them uncomfortable.

Then think about this Jon Arryn could have made life for Rickard Stark miserable. The sisterton's sits right of the coast of White Harbor and they control the lights that guide's ships coming and going. Not to mention that they could send a force from the sistertons to swing around White Harbor, while the city is fighting off what they think is Jon's main thrust via ships launched from Gull's town to White Harbor, the force from the sisterton's slips in from the back and are now in a position to take the city from the back door. That would bring the North to its knees. White Harbor is the mouth of the North, close the mouth and the body starves. All the while Tully could send a force in the Neck and engage the Moat. These two armies need not win they just have to hold and make Rickard Stark to reconsider his options. Use a meager fleet from Seaguard to creep up the coast of the North and then deploy troops to meet at the Moat. Death in 4. They could really make life hard for poor Rickard Stark and I think that he was smart enough to realize that.

Yet the think that I find most interesting that no one has thought about the crowns response to Rickard's actions.

Really examine the implications of the Tourney of Harrenhal.

1) IT's held at Harrenhal, the seat of house Whent, whom by the next generation is related to house Tully by blood. a) Oswell Whent is of the Kings Guard and he's the good brother to Hosteen Tully. B) He received or was visiting his brother at harrenhal when the proposed Tourney was suggested to be held c) House Whent is a powerful house along the Trident, it's land are fertile and far reaching. The size of Harrenhal could host a sizeable force to be deployed along the trident and they are close and personal friends of the Crown. d) The fact that they were holding it on the Trident the place were the bloodest attack normally come from was sending the message that we will make you bleed and showing the realm where house Whent stood if war broke out.

2)Rheagar is close friends with Whent, he knows his father is bat shit crazy and likely to be the down fall of their house if not overthrown. a) then he receives word that the Trout, Lion, Direwolf and Falcon are getting into bed together. B) That the Trout is seeking an ally with a bannerman of the Rose, a bannerman with a fleet c) The trout is also seeking to wed into the house of lions. To check said power he plots with Dayne whom rode with the Young Lion and could be used as a pawn to get the old Dragon and the Old Lion at each other's throats. d) Ashara Dayne was another pawn, she danced with the Red Viper and the Griffin, marry either one and it's got potential to cause havoc with the Stormland/Dorne agenda. Not all of the Stormlords are loyal to house Baratheon and why should they be. Robert was a child lord that was raised in the Vale. There were stormlords that rode with Connington so it's not that big of a stretch that she could be used against the Northern Alliance.

3)To check the marriage of the trout and lion, Dayne may have suggested using Tywin's hate of his father and his father's hatred of the lion to his advantage. a) name Jamie to the kingguard B) ensure that Tywin would never forgive or help Aerys under any circumstance c) Send word to Tywin to stay his hand in the up coming dispute and he will release Jamie for his vows when he's king d) Tywin gets his heir back at least even if Cersi can't be wed to the Dragon e) this takes the West, armies, and war chest off the table. Reduces the buffer between the Trident and the Reach. Not to mention frees the Reach up to actually join the fight. This is shaping up to be more than a oneside slaughter. Now the Crown has a chance of making a go of fending off the alliance and removing Aerys from power.

4) Make sure that Vary's knows of his plans to try and overthrow his father. a) This makes sure that Aerys is going to be on hand for the Tourney. B) this places proof not just rumor that Aerys was batshit crazy and a danger to the realm, look no further than the events that happened at the feast and the knight of the laughing tree. c) it shows Rheagar as the shiny prince that is a warrior as he won the tourney but also as a soft and sensitive man that sings songs at night. d) by contrast his father looks like an unfit ruler that is willing to spite the men that serve him but also those that don't. Look no further that what Aerys did to Jamie about no letting him compete.

5) Then look at the Crowning of Lyanna Stark. It's a quiet message that he knows will get back to the Lords Paramounts. They will understand his actions and what he's trying to tell them without saying a word. He's telling them that he can remove his father, he can make lyanna a queen, the realm need not bleed, yet last but not least he's telling them that he knows about their plot and this is a way for them to save face.

[Modesty Lannister]

post 70

Now it is my turn to thank you for sitting down and breaking it down so well. I came to the same conclusion, but I'd add a bit of a threat into this equation. RT crowned LS with blue roses that will immediately remind any northman of the story of Beal The Bard. So, he is warning the north what may happen if they choose to go along with the rebellion reminding them of Beal's stealing of the Winterfell daughter and fathering a bastard who will end up being THE ONLY HEIR to Winterfell and Beal's attack on the north, as opposed to their obedience which would lead him to choose Lyanna for his queen (of love and beauty) in (a probable) case of Elia's illness and death. So, it's a carrot/stick approach.

[ToTheWolves]

This thread makes me want a Roberts Rebellion or prequel to RR novel so much more(I know there won't be because they are part of the same story but still). I wish we knew more about rickard,Brandon,lyanna & rhaegar and all the other characters, and events that transpired around that time.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Between posts 70 and 71 this is very convincing. Sure makes more sense than Rhaegar taking a fancy to Lyanna and just throwing everything out the window so he could have her.

I've wondered if Elia was dying and nobody outside the royal family knew it. We know the maesters said she couldn't have more children but what if in addition to that she had some non-contagious but very fatal illness and wasn't going to live much longer?

[the conquoring bastard25]

That would make sense as well.

Ladies I thank you for the support and for thinking that I'm not crazy

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Why has no one brought up Walys Flowers, bastard of a Hightower woman and an Archmaester?

He was the one who prompted Rickard for the alliances/marriages.

Do we know that for a fact or it is just something one of the characters heard?

We're really concentrating mostly on trying to get inside Rickard's head than worrying about who might have put him up to it. If we had more information about Walys, I think he'd be discussed more. But he's really more of a player in the Maesters Conspiracy threads.

[Hippocras]

Do we know that for a fact or it is just something one of the characters heard?

We're really concentrating mostly on trying to get inside Rickard's head than worrying about who might have put him up to it. If we had more information about Walys, I think he'd be discussed more. But he's really more of a player in the Maesters Conspiracy threads.

It is a fact that Walys was the one who suggested the marriages to Rickard, yes.

[Hippocras]

Bravo Bravo, Thank you... Just because one lord at one time in a certain house doesn't like to play the game doesn't mean that the lord before didn't have the same views.Ned's actions about not having marriages in place for his children. That he's not making alliances that would benefit of his family actually is strange given the time frame that we are talking about.Yet when you find out that his father was playing the game and lost well then his actions make sense.The North and the Starks have been a powerbase for generations.Then take into consideration some of the other players involved. Jon Arryn is a good politician but lacks the family to make to needed connections to make alliances outside of the vale or join it with other regions. But Jon does have the Vale itself as a very rich plum to be offered to someone of the right blood. That's where Ned would fit in perfectly and bring a lasting peace between the too as they are now tied by blood. Think about the speech that the lord of the sisterton gave to Davos. That the Falcon and Direwolf had been picking at the bones of the isles for years. There is a reason that this series is called a game, because it mirrors how politics were played back then. Marriage was the easiest way of throwing your enemies off guard and making them uncomfortable.Then think about this Jon Arryn could have made life for Rickard Stark miserable. The sisterton's sits right of the coast of White Harbor and they control the lights that guide's ships coming and going. Not to mention that they could send a force from the sistertons to swing around White Harbor, while the city is fighting off what they think is Jon's main thrust via ships launched from Gull's town to White Harbor, the force from the sisterton's slips in from the back and are now in a position to take the city from the back door. That would bring the North to its knees. White Harbor is the mouth of the North, close the mouth and the body starves. All the while Tully could send a force in the Neck and engage the Moat. These two armies need not win they just have to hold and make Rickard Stark to reconsider his options. Use a meager fleet from Seaguard to creep up the coast of the North and then deploy troops to meet at the Moat. Death in 4. They could really make life hard for poor Rickard Stark and I think that he was smart enough to realize that.Yet the think that I find most interesting that no one has thought about the crowns response to Rickard's actions.Really examine the implications of the Tourney of Harrenhal.1) IT's held at Harrenhal, the seat of house Whent, whom by the next generation is related to house Tully by blood. a) Oswell Whent is of the Kings Guard and he's the good brother to Hosteen Tully. B) He received or was visiting his brother at harrenhal when the proposed Tourney was suggested to be held c) House Whent is a powerful house along the Trident, it's land are fertile and far reaching. The size of Harrenhal could host a sizeable force to be deployed along the trident and they are close and personal friends of the Crown. d) The fact that they were holding it on the Trident the place were the bloodest attack normally come from was sending the message that we will make you bleed and showing the realm where house Whent stood if war broke out.2)Rheagar is close friends with Whent, he knows his father is bat shit crazy and likely to be the down fall of their house if not overthrown. a) then he receives word that the Trout, Lion, Direwolf and Falcon are getting into bed together. B) That the Trout is seeking an ally with a bannerman of the Rose, a bannerman with a fleet c) The trout is also seeking to wed into the house of lions. To check said power he plots with Dayne whom rode with the Young Lion and could be used as a pawn to get the old Dragon and the Old Lion at each other's throats. d) Ashara Dayne was another pawn, she danced with the Red Viper and the Griffin, marry either one and it's got potential to cause havoc with the Stormland/Dorne agenda. Not all of the Stormlords are loyal to house Baratheon and why should they be. Robert was a child lord that was raised in the Vale. There were stormlords that rode with Connington so it's not that big of a stretch that she could be used against the Northern Alliance.3)To check the marriage of the trout and lion, Dayne may have suggested using Tywin's hate of his father and his father's hatred of the lion to his advantage. a) name Jamie to the kingguard B) ensure that Tywin would never forgive or help Aerys under any circumstance c) Send word to Tywin to stay his hand in the up coming dispute and he will release Jamie for his vows when he's king d) Tywin gets his heir back at least even if Cersi can't be wed to the Dragon e) this takes the West, armies, and war chest off the table. Reduces the buffer between the Trident and the Reach. Not to mention frees the Reach up to actually join the fight. This is shaping up to be more than a oneside slaughter. Now the Crown has a chance of making a go of fending off the alliance and removing Aerys from power.4) Make sure that Vary's knows of his plans to try and overthrow his father. a) This makes sure that Aerys is going to be on hand for the Tourney. B) this places proof not just rumor that Aerys was batshit crazy and a danger to the realm, look no further than the events that happened at the feast and the knight of the laughing tree. c) it shows Rheagar as the shiny prince that is a warrior as he won the tourney but also as a soft and sensitive man that sings songs at night. d) by contrast his father looks like an unfit ruler that is willing to spite the men that serve him but also those that don't. Look no further that what Aerys did to Jamie about no letting him compete.5) Then look at the Crowning of Lyanna Stark. It's a quiet message that he knows will get back to the Lords Paramounts. They will understand his actions and what he's trying to tell them without saying a word. He's telling them that he can remove his father, he can make lyanna a queen, the realm need not bleed, yet last but not least he's telling them that he knows about their plot and this is a way for them to save face.

This is pretty good. Interesting to take it from where you left off though, in other words, what went wrong? How did Brandon end up with the idea Rhaegar was raping Lyanna in King's Landing?

[the conquoring bastard25]

That I'm not sure about but I'm working on don't worry.

Right now I have Randyll Tarly on the brain so I'll get back to you on that one.

[Theon {HUNGRY WOLF} Stark]

I think the two main players here are Hoster UYTully and Jon Arryn. If Rickard was anything like Brandon (and we simply do not know), he was convinced by the formidable Tully/Arryn duo that he SHOULD have southern ambitions.

Let's see who's done or attempted to do what before RR?

1. Hoster Tully planned to marry:

- Catelyn to Brandon Stark, heir to Winterfell i.e. forge an alliance with the North

- Lysa to Jaime, heir to CR i.e. forge an alliance with Westerlands

- Edmure to Arianne, heiress to Sunspear i.e. forge an alliance with Dorne

- Blackfish to Bethany Redwyne i.e. forge an alliance with the part of the Reach aristocracy that descended from the House Gardener, so potentially power hungry for the Lord Paramount of the Reach position

So, he was planning to become the father-in-law of Westeros safe for the Targaryens

2. Jon Arryn fostered:

- Robert Baratheon, the heir to Stormlands whose family died and who was supposed to be in Storm's End ruling just like Bran did when Robb went south. Instead, he is in the Eyrie. Why? We don't know. All we know is that Arryn managed to turn House Baratheon from a staunch supporter of the House Targaryen into its largest foe. Incidentally, in case of a total demise of Targaryens, Baratheons as their cousins stood to inherit the throne

- Ned Stark. Why? Brandon was fostered by Dustins, a house loyal and sworn to the Starks. Why send Ned so far away to another lord Paramount? Was Ned a hostage sent by Rickard in good will to seal the marriage deal between Robert and Lyanna? And who did they originally plan to wed Ned to? I'd like to know that piece of information. Judging from Brandon's introduction of Ned to Ashara Dayne at the Harrenhal feast, it may have been her. I think Rickard's southern ambition came down to promises by Tully and Arryn that Lyanna will become the queen in exchange for northern swords in rebellion.

So, from all we know, it was Jon and Hoster who planned all the alliances and the whole rebellion way before Harrenhal tourney. Marriages between houses of Lords Paramount were not customary. So, no wonder Aerys was suspicious. He knew Targs would be left isolated in Crownlands.

Then, the plan started to collapse because:

- Jaime became a KG

- Blackfish refused to marry

- Arianne rejected Edmure

- Lyanna fled with Rhaegar

- Brandon stupidly rushed to KG to call on the crown prince to "come out and die" committing high treason and causing his father's death. This point is important. Knowing what we know of Brandon, it may be argued that Arryn/Tully counted on this reaction thus enacting plan B.

_______________________

So, plan B was:

- marry Lysa to Jon instead of Jaime

- promise Tywin what was promised to Rickard and use his rage against Aerys' refusal to marry Cersei to Rhaegar and his decision to rob him of his heir who was effectively a KG/hostage to let Tywin do the dirty work, take all the blame, but get the half of what he desired - Cersei as the queen

- count on Mace's lack of decisiveness in the field of battle

- count on Ned's honour i.e. that he will obey his father's promises to Tully/Arryn without getting anything in exchange, but a forced marriage to Catelyn

- count on Doran's prudence

So, it worked, but the greatest winners were Jon Arryn and Hoster Tully. Robert was Arryn's puppet who signed everything Jon brought him much like Tommen is doing as king. Tywin got to pay for everything and take all the blame while Starks lost almost everything.

At the time Arianne was 3-4 years old.

[the conquoring bastard25]

Lady Blizzardborn, Hippacras and Modesty Lannister thank you and I love you, I just cracked it, I think. I wouldn't have gotten there if you hadn't pushed me to think. Thank you Thank you, the pieces have just fallen I know how the lay now I think.

Aegon that's got to be what changed all. I've been trying to find the Katherine of Aragon parallel for awhile and I just found it. Elia of Dorne is Katherine of Aragon only this time Katherine actually had a healthy baby boy.

From Harrenhal, its been thought that Lyanna stayed on sort of like being fostered their so she would be more familiar with running a southern household. More than likely Brandon stayed as well, as Cat actually met Brandon before the wedding. That very well maybe the case that he stayed in the Trident to be close to his sister but also to get to know his betrothed.

Raven's would have been flying back and forth between Harrenhal, Riverrun, Winterfell and the Red Keep. They would have been informed of what transpired between Lyana and Rheagar, the message that he was sending that he knows about the plot and whether it was time to change course.

Rheagar fucked up and slept with is wife she gets pregnant and it's a boy!

Rickard may have been fine with his daughter marrying the prince so long as he didn't have an heir or male son before any of this own grandchildren. It's pretty hard to make a case to set aside Elia on the ground that he didn't have a male heir and his wife was sickly likely never to have more children. Then she goes and has a boy. Or Does she, what about a certain bastard in the belly of a certain maid.

Elia is a daughter of Dorne where women's rights are important. She wouldn't want to sit by while her daughter and her rights were thrown away for a son of Lyanna Starks.

So She fucks Rheagar one last time gets pregnant only she give birth to a still born girl and replaces it with Ashara Daynes healthy baby boy. Elia's position is just no been secured. Rheagar couldn't possilble put her aside now, not without the realm bleeding when he died.

Think about Ned and his thoughts when he and Robert are riding through the Barrowlands. Ned thinks about Rheagar's children in relationship to what Robert wants to do to Dany. He thinks that some wounds never heal and bleed anew. Then think about his thoughts about Cat and what she would do against the children of her body against Jon. He also thinks about what he would do. On the surface it could be taken as he's thinking about Jon and Cat. But what if he's thinking about his own son that the realm thinks got his royal brains dashed out. Then think of this, the Red Viper had to fight a duel against Yronwood for honors sake so long as the young prince spilled some blood honor could be restored and face could have been saved. Its always bugged me the fight between ned and Dayne. But if Selmy is right it would be just like the fight between Martell and Yronwood. So on the surface it appears that the fight is about Lyanna and them being there to defend her. Yet what if under the surface this was a match between Ned and Dayne for honor's sake. Ned couldn't marry Dayne even if at one time there were talking or plan it. Ned choose honor and shamed his sister.

Then there is the factor that Ashara would have thought that she was doing the royal family a favor by giving them an heir and no need for bloodshed. Yet her reputation stays intact, she can still make a decent match and she doesn't have a bastard that could threatned any of her and ned's true born chidren.

Yet what if Rheagar found out about the deceit, that she had swapped the children. He would have seen that as a signal that he could try again with Lyanna but this time he works under the principal that first no one would believe him, he doesn't want to shame his family and her before the realm. Better to have the deed done and ask forgiveness than not and beg for permission.

Then there is the fact that he took her to Dorne, its strange it's like rubbing your in-laws nose in the mess. Yet if he went there to explain the situation and come to terms. What ever is needed to keep the Martells loyal but still leaves him free to marry Lyanna. Along with the Martells being able to save face.

Figuring that his son will be the prince with Lyanna, the bastard could run the kingdom while the other saves the world. it would be even more impartive that he get a child as he's crazed about this prophecy. Didn't Aemon say something about at first Rheagar thought that it was he that was the prince then he thought that it was Aegon but even then he wasn't sure.

That's what changed everything. No one wanted another dance with dragons or another blackfyre rebellion. So Rickard