Rickard Stark's Southron Ambitions

[Brave_Companion]

I'm sorry but this has been busing in my brain since last night and I can't shake it.

Ned and Dayne is another thing that helps this alliance.

Yronwood would have just lost their lord and father to the poisoned blade of the red Viper. When Quenton was born we learn that he was sent to yronwood because he was the only coin that he would except.

Yet when these alliances were being made he wasn't born, so the Martells are short on some coin and the Viper was overseas in exile.

Ned marries Dayne that would split the dornish power base. The Yronwoods are the second most powerful house in Dorne and commanded a good percentage of their swords, then there this the fact they rode 3 times with the bittersteel's against the realm. How much you bet the promise of setting right what Nymeria set wrong and place the lordship in their hands. Same principle. The daynes have the added advantage of having a woman in one of the co conspiritors and one that would be riding with the crown prince. Their house would serve they could play both sides and whomever won can't really fault house Dayne for it's loyalties. Use the Starfell, High Hermiage and Yronwood forces to besiege Sunspear and Stormland troops to engage the dornish in the marshes. That's keeping most of their forces pinned up in Sunspear or in the Marshes.

Then there is Ned being raised in the Vale and Jon not having an heir. Ned Stark was related to half of the nobility of the Vale by blood not marriage.

Waynwood, Tempolton, Redfort and Junior Branch of house Royce. Those are some powerful family to have in the Vale indeed.

I don't know how well this idea is going to be received but when these plans were being hashed out, Jon might have been toying with the idea of making Ned his heir.

No one wants the uncouth Arryns on the throne and by not leaving a decent heir it would be in fighting within these powerful factions in the Vale. As an appeasement to the Nobility Arryn could have raise Ned to the lordship because of his being related to most of the nobility. It's like Jon Snow and the election at the Wall. He was an appeasement vote for the two major parties involved with the election. He meets the requirements that both parties were lacking in the other. The Vale nobility may have Arryn blood but because of that blood infighting might have broken out. Name Ned on the other hand and they may have been okay with it.

Then think about this before you say no. Most of the nobility of the Vale was chomping at the bit to join the war and fight on the side of Robb.

They could have wanted to join Renly or Stannis both wanted to remove Lannister from power and they would have gotten the blood they craved for Jon's death. Yet they didn't they wanted to join Robb. The son of the man that was raised as their possible lord until which every lady Arryn had the male that dies at the battle of the bells.

At that time Jon Arryn had at least two heirs, Elbert Arryn who was killed along with Brandon's other companions and Denys Arryn who was killed by Jon Connington in the Battle of the Bells.

He had no need to make Ned his heir.

[the conquoring bastard25]

When Ned first went to the Vale neither of those heir had been thought of nor were they born. Ned was a ten yr old that was there now.

I also said toying with the idea.

[Hippocras]

This is getting into less convincing territory again.

Just to clarify your theory, can you do a point-by-point list of the actors involved, and what you think their objectives were so we can debate each one? Try to be brief - just a list of which side they were on and why.

1. Aerys

2. Rhaegar

3. Jon Arryn

4. Rickard Stark

5. Hoster Tully

6. Tywin Lannister

7. House Martell

8. House Dayne

9. Robert Baratheon

[Modesty Lannister]

At the time Arianne was 3-4 years old.

There is Arianne's recollection of these events in the books.

[Brave_Companion]

When Ned first went to the Vale neither of those heir had been thought of nor were they born. Ned was a ten yr old that was there now.

I also said toying with the idea.

How do you figure they weren't thought of nor born? Elbert Arryn being a friend of Brandon's was most likely older than Ned. In any case before Elbert there was his father Ronnel Arryn, Jon Arryn's younger brother.

[the conquoring bastard25]

1. Aerys- I think this was the birth of the Wildfire plot. Aerys knows that his days are numbered and he's not going to go quietly.

2. Rhaegar- has one too many pots in the fire. He brought Jamie to kill the king. Think Rheagar used Cersi to mention the thought of making Jamie a part of the King guard and Tywin wants his heir back and there needs to be a reason that he's going to strip him of the cloak and the realm can understand his reasoning.( I think that we should start here and work our way out. He is the center of all this drama after all.)

3. Jon Arryn- Plotting to be made hand and wants Lyn Cobray to be a member of the King guard.

4. Rickard Stark- Pleased with himself until the birth of Aegon and his plans come crashing down around him. He knows what's going to happen if he married Lyanna to the prince. It would be another dance and rebellion rolled into one. That's why I think that he denied her marrying him.

5. Hoster Tully- Couldn't be happier he's going to be in-laws with the Crown and just got a really strong protector in the form of the Crown.

6. Tywin Lannister- Sitting back and letting the drama unfold. He's been asked to stay out of the war. I even believe that Jon when he raised his banners asked him the samething. With the promise to release Jamie from the kingguard once Aerys' was gone. That's all the he cares about getting Jamie out of the kings way before he did something to spite Tywin and fucks Jamie up. Jamie Lanniseter is the best protection a man could have because he's the one person that can actually stay his hand.

7. House Martell- Figuring out what the hell is going on and wondering how long before they get word that Rheagar wants to put Elia aside. Maybe gathering swords, the Viper I believe would have been in the free cities or at the least has his own sell sword company. They also would have been trying to strengthen the ties between their houses. T

8. House Dayne- Making marriage pact between Ned and Ashara. They are safe either way this plays out. Arthur is the best friend of the prince and if Ashara's in the bed of Ned they can scarcely be blamed for sending swords to fight for him. They can be used against or for sunspear either way.

9. Robert Baratheon- doesn't have a though beyond where's the next wench and my last night was mighty thirsty work so where is his next drink.

One Caveat if we are going to do this lets take on character at a time and see how that blends into the other characters and see where that takes us.

[Modesty Lannister]

1. Aerys- I think this was the birth of the Wildfire plot. Aerys knows that his days are numbered and he's not going to go quietly.

I think Aerys' state of mind resembles Cersei's in ADWD. He thinks everything he does is so clever while it actually harms his house beyond repair. Slaughtering the Starks and other lords destroyed all the manoeuvring Rhaegar has done during the Harrenhal tourney. I think that Aerys saw Rhaegar and not the rebels as his main rival.

2. Rhaegar- has one too many pots in the fire. He brought Jamie to kill the king. Think Rheagar used Cersi to mention the thought of making Jamie a part of the King guard and Tywin wants his heir back and there needs to be a reason that he's going to strip him of the cloak and the realm can understand his reasoning.( I think that we should start here and work our way out. He is the center of all this drama after all.

I wouldn't agree with your assessment that Rhaegar brought Jaime in. It was Cersei and even if anybody whispered that idea into her ear, it would not be Rhaegar. Hoster and Arryn were the ones who'd profit from Tywin being pissed off by Aerys and they did. Rhaegar just jumped on that wagon trying to sway Tywin back. His was a more difficult task since he rejected Cersei.

3. Jon Arryn- Plotting to be made hand and wants Lyn Cobray to be a member of the King guard.

Not just plotting. Masterminding it.

4. Rickard Stark- Pleased with himself until the birth of Aegon and his plans come crashing down around him. He knows what's going to happen if he married Lyanna to the prince. It would be another dance and rebellion rolled into one. That's why I think that he denied her marrying him.

Agreed.

5. Hoster Tully- Couldn't be happier he's going to be in-laws with the Crown and just got a really strong protector in the form of the Crown.

Well, not extremely happy. He would have been happier with Jaime as a son-in-law and Edmure securing Dorne while Blackfish allying with the Reach. That would make his central position safe. We saw what happened with the Riverlands in the war of five kings.

6. Tywin Lannister- Sitting back and letting the drama unfold. He's been asked to stay out of the war. I even believe that Jon when he raised his banners asked him the samething. With the promise to release Jamie from the kingguard once Aerys' was gone. That's all the he cares about getting Jamie out of the kings way before he did something to spite Tywin and fucks Jamie up. Jamie Lanniseter is the best protection a man could have because he's the one person that can actually stay his hand.

I do not agree with that. He is asked by both parties to join the war. However, Aerys had absolutely nothing to offer him while Arryn offered him Cersei as queen in exchange for annihilation of all heirs who preceded Robert. His personal bonus was to have his revenge on Elia and Martells for getting what Cersei and he didn't.

7. House Martell- Figuring out what the hell is going on and wondering how long before they get word that Rheagar wants to put Elia aside. Maybe gathering swords, the Viper I believe would have been in the free cities or at the least has his own sell sword company. They also would have been trying to strengthen the ties between their houses.

As we know, Doran signed a secret marriage pact with queen Rhaella. Publicly, he stayed neutral and outraged.

8. House Dayne- Making marriage pact between Ned and Ashara. They are safe either way this plays out. Arthur is the best friend of the prince and if Ashara's in the bed of Ned they can scarcely be blamed for sending swords to fight for him. They can be used against or for sunspear either way.

Agreed. Win-win. But, they were definitely on Rhaegar's side in this. All the way.

9. Robert Baratheon- doesn't have a though beyond where's the next wench and my last night was mighty thirsty work so where is his next drink.

Don't be mean. He also thought about how awful and degenerate Rhaegar was, how he was raping his beloved (while he, along with anybody else, never even attempted to rescue her), how he was the strongest and how Stannis had to hold Storm's End at all cost, preferably at the cost of his life.

Don't forget consistent anti-Targaryen policy of the masters from the one in Winterfell who whispered into Rickard's ear to the one in KL who talked Aerys into opening his gates to Tywin. The only pro-Targaryen maester was assigned to a penal colony - the Wall. So, one can ultimately argue that all the pawns in the game of thrones are moved by masters who communicate amongst themselves unseen and follow their own agenda.

[the conquoring bastard25]

You know when we have all the parts together we should start our own thread

(I think Aerys' state of mind resembles Cersei's in ADWD. He thinks everything he does is so clever while it actually harms his house beyond repair. Slaughtering the Starks and other lords destroyed all the manoeuvring Rhaegar has done during the Harrenhal tourney. I think that Aerys saw Rhaegar and not the rebels as his main rival.)

1)I agree that he saw the rebels as the enemies, which is why if Rheagar had sided with them they all would have been enemies. Yet look at it this way, killing the Starks and their vassals was I think his attempt to be Tywin. He was trying to immolate the man that got away with killing 2 ancient and noble lines and wasn't killed or rebelled against. His mistake was that he left some Starks alive.

a) Aerys knows that his son is plotting against him, he probably has some understanding that Rheagar is nursing some hope to gather the support of the Northern Alliance by marrying Lyanna. Marrying Lyanna brings all of the North, The Trident as they are her in-law. Add in Harrenhal whom are friends with Rheagar and related to the Tully's by blood, they would have to side with Rheagar. They have already placed themselves in a dangerous position because they hosted and back Rheagar at the Tourney.

B) Removing Rickard as the head of the house and his heir is a great step to breaking up the powerblock he was accumulating. Brandon can't marry Cat, the North losses Riverrun as a fall back position... and all of those other things that I've already mentioned. Shows the Trident lords what happened to those that defy him.

c)He then calls for Ned's head. Ned as a second son that's been hidden away for the past 10 the lords don't know him, nor do they have any reason to love him. They don't know if he's a skilled warrior like his brother Brandon. They don't know if he's a great horseman like his sister or brother. They don't know what Jon Arryn has taught him or if he's even going to be a good leader. The same with Robert he's a child lord that hasn't spent much time in the Stormlands since his parents death. Yet his brothers have, the stormlords know Stannis and that he's a sour child who saw his lord father die in a sea storm.(That was his hope at least, show the realm he's not to be defied by be easy with the rest of the family once they've entered back into the kings's peace.) Think about it he left one to live to spread the tell of the Justice of King Aerys.

d) Aerys still holds Jamie hostage, so that's staying Tywin's hands as he knows that Aerys would harm Jamie just to spite him. So that takes the Lannisters out of the equation, yet he doesn't know that his son has been in communications with Tywin and he was going to stay out of the fighting anyway, to get Jamie free of his vows.

e) Elia is still the crowned princes wife so long as Aerys keeps her close Dorne and the Martells have to help. Only through an Aery's win are they going to keep their daughter on the Throne and her children as the next heirs to the throne. So Rheagar has just been checked on that front. The only way that I see them siding with Rheagar is if he proposed a match between Visernys and Adrianne. Not to mention Rheagar still has a hidden dagger at the Martell's throats in the form of Ashara Dayne and a possible match between Ned. Starfell could still be used to lay siege to Sunspear. Sweeten the pot by giving the impression that if the Martells don't choose correctly the Wardship of Dorne could go to Yronwood.

(I wouldn't agree with your assessment that Rhaegar brought Jaime in. It was Cersei and even if anybody whispered that idea into her ear, it would not be Rhaegar. Hoster and Arryn were the ones who'd profit from Tywin being pissed off by Aerys and they did. Rhaegar just jumped on that wagon trying to sway Tywin back. His was a more difficult task since he rejected Cersei.)

1) Rheagar and Dayne have hatched a plan to use the hatred between Tywin and Aery's to there advantage. They get Jamie in the King guard to keep Tywin out of the war, and say that they will relieve him of his duty after the war is done and Rheagar is king.

a) It was Cersi that gets Jamie to join. She was at court, when he came back from fighting in the Kingwood were he got his spurs. Jamie was originally Marabrand's squire, then Dayne took him under his wing.

B) Jamie has shown that he wanted to be Arthur and serve Rheagar he loves both them.

c) Selmy said that the worst of the King guard were those that played the game of thrones. We have never heard his opinion of Dayne or Whent. We have heard that he held the old Bull in high regard, that he hated Jamie.

d)By rights the Old Bull should have made the decision to name Jamie to the Kingguard but according to Tyrion, neither he nor hightower wanted Jamie on the guard. They thought that he was too young and inexperienced to eager for glory.

e) I've gotten the impression that Jamie didn't like the King after he left from Harrenhal. He wants to the right thing. Darry was in the company of Jamie when he raped his wife. The Old Bull was in the throne room when Rickard was killed. Both men told him to do his duty and that he wasn't suppose to judge the king.

f) Rheagar has to know that he's got to give a great reason for why after almost 300 years of the guard serving for life there had better be a good reason why a 17 yr old was removed from the guard. Killing the king would have been a good motive.

g)Cersi is half in love with Rheagar. She is filled with unrequited love. She would have done anything to please the Rheagar. He had to have known that Tywin was hoping to marry him to Cersi. She is the perfect pawn or tool to use to get Jamie to consent to being named to the King guard. Cersi is like all lion's prideful. If she thought she was going to gain some favor from the prince she would have jumped at the chance.

h) Then there is the timing thing. The old lion dies a spot opens up, Jamie is a new knight at the hands of Dayne. He makes his way back to KL to see his sister before he heads back to the Rock. She tells him about the marriage plans to wed him to Lysa. Then she mentions that if he was in the guard he could be close to her all the time. He mentions the Rock, she say would you rather have a rock or me. He goes with Cersi to the King guard. Cersi doesn't have to know why Rheagar wants Jamie, she only has to know that the future king would owe her a favor in the future. Remember she's still under the impression that some way some how that she's going to be queen and Rheagar is going to be her King. The Prophecy she would marry the king. She's not stupid she has to know that Rheagar is gathering swords to topple the King. She may just think that she's helping along her own destiny.

(Well, not extremely happy. He would have been happier with Jaime as a son-in-law and Edmure securing Dorne while Blackfish allying with the Reach. That would make his central position safe. We saw what happened with the Riverlands in the war of five kings.)

1) Jamie could still be married to Lysa after the war and Jamie is freed from his vows. That's not off the table, it's possible. Yeah the Blackfish threw a monkey wrench in that plan but he did expose a potential ally for the Prince in the form of the Redwynes whom have a major problem, He has male twins and only one lordship to pass on.

2) Yet if you are trying to split the powerbase of the Reach and it's lords, I'd make an ally out of the Florents. Brightwater Keep sits right on the mouth of the Mander and is a second line of defense to the Reach. Make an ally out of the Redwyne, by marrying the twins to the Fowler Twins or with an open white cloak after Jamie vacates it well that solves a lot of problems and opens the way to threat Highgarden. Not to mention those pesky Florents have a better claim to Highgarden then the Tyrells. IT's the same situation in Dorne, offer the Florents Highgarden in return for their help in engaging the Reaches forces.

3) Secure the alliance marriage between the maid that Robert deflowered on his brother's wedding night to Edmure, that would give you Brightwater Keep. Give Hosteen Tully some peace of mind about the safety of the Trident. That would also explain why he never wanted Edmure to marry Frey. He had designs on improving the defenses of the Trident and looked South not North to do so after having Cat engaged to Brandon. He would have to West with Jamie, North with Brandon and South with a match between the new lords of Highgarden as his other in-laws. He's created a buffer all around the Trident.

(I do not agree with that. He is asked by both parties to join the war. However, Aerys had absolutely nothing to offer him while Arryn offered him Cersei as queen in exchange for annihilation of all heirs who preceded Robert. His personal bonus was to have his revenge on Elia and Martells for getting what Cersei and he didn't.)

I understand where you are coming from, but I'm not looking at this situation from what Rheagar and company were doing after Lyanna was taken, I'm looking at what might have happened right after the Tourney. Cersi would have only been offered as Queen after the Rebellion.

1) Yet it does have merits that Jon, Rheagar and Robert could have talked about asking Tywin to wed Robert to Cersi, after Rheagar makes a formal request for Lyanna's hand.

a)Yet I feel like Rheagar would have wanted Tywin to stay out of the fighting partly for Jamie's sake. He knows what type of man his father is and he wouldn't kill Jamie he would maim the young lion. That has far more repercussions than simply killing Jamie.

B) The other reason that I think that he would have wanted Tywin to stay out of the war, is because it would make his father even more instable. Tywin had been his good right hand for the last 20 years and a boy hood friend before that. Tywin resusced him from Duskendale... The silence coming from Casterly Rock would have been even more unnerving than Tywin showing up at KL with 20,000 swords at his back. As we have seen Aerys still trusted Tywin because he held his son.

This actually makes sense seeing as Rheagar and company after they stole Lyanna head south. If your making alliances and you think that the North would support you then it's time to sew up your allegiances in the South.

[Modesty Lannister]

post 88

I agree with 80%. My main question at this stage to you is - why did Rhaegar steel Lyanna? Also, my greatest objection to 20% of your version of the game of thrones is that most of the things your mentioned re Rhaegar seem completely out of character. Some of them are quite monstrous. I think you cannot look at this as just chess. These are men who have feelings and preferences and secret and not-so-secret ambitions. I strongly disagree with your assessment that lords did not know who Ned was and what he could do. Imho, Jon Arryn was the mastermind of the whole plan. Robert and Ned were raised for the roles they played. Jon knew exactly where and when to put them into play. At that stage the only other relevant lord is Tully in this equation of 4 kingdoms. Tywin was set up nicely to sit and fume in CR until he gets an offer he cannot refuse. So, to make it clearer. The time is 5 min before Rhaegar took Lyanna. We have the big alliance between the North/Stormlands/Riverlands/The Eyrie on one side. Tywin is temporarily neutral. Aerys can count on ??? Rhaegar can count on Dorne due to his marriage. He offered Rickard marriage with Lyanna if Elia dies. He has nothing to offer to the others. In the Riverlands, he can turn Whents and Darries against the Tullies. Frey will sit that one out. In the Vale, he cannot touch Arryn. In the North, he cannot pass Moat Cailin. So, his position is weak. He cannot side with his father, because his father would never resign the throne although he is unfit to rule. Why would he steal Lyanna? What was he going to achieve with that? Take a hostage? Who cares? Arryn just needed a pretext for the war. Rhaegar is giving him one on a plate. The cleverest, the most educated man and a skilled warrior who grew up in the centre of the game of thrones makes this move. Like in chess, he takes the queen and takes her to the opposite side of the board. Why?

[JonCon's Red Beard]

The Maesters trying to break the kingdoms to have influence makes sense.

Look at it today: mostly country are independent, but in many of them, there are presence of the Vatican, even in governments. That doesn't mean they "rule" such countries, but they do have a lot of influence and presence in many of them and know what it's happening in all of them. The Maesters might have something similar: have all the lords "watched"

Why has no one brought up Walys Flowers, bastard of a Hightower woman and an Archmaester?

He was the one who prompted Rickard for the alliances/marriages.

Only Brandon with Cat. It was Robert's idea to marry Lyanna.

I've wondered if Elia was dying and nobody outside the royal family knew it. We know the maesters said she couldn't have more children but what if in addition to that she had some non-contagious but very fatal illness and wasn't going to live much longer?

Never thought about it, and it makes sense.

[Modesty Lannister]

The Maesters trying to break the kingdoms to have influence makes sense.

Look at it today: mostly country are independent, but in many of them, there are presence of the Vatican, even in governments. That doesn't mean they "rule" such countries, but they do have a lot of influence and presence in many of them and know what it's happening in all of them. The Maesters might have something similar: have all the lords "watched"

Only Brandon with Cat. It was Robert's idea to marry Lyanna.

Never thought about it, and it makes sense.

I agree that masters are the puppet masters in this game, as I mentioned earlier. One of their goals is certainly to curb all things magical. Hence, they support anti-Targaryen policy, especially since Rhaegar and Aerys showed interest in the PTWP. What I'm not clear about is their end game. And the bloody glass candles are just blowing my mind. Anyone? Any ideas about the bloody things? However, I would not compare them with the Roman Catholic Church since GRRM said that the Faith of the 7 has that role in the Westerosi society. If we are into conspiracies, they would be more like Freemasons or Illuminati.

How do you know that it was Robert's idea?

I'm glad that your support the idea Lady Blizzardborn and I shared in our posts. I thought that would be the only logical solution. Rhaegar was not described as cruel by anyone. And what he did in front of Elia was cruel. It was a politically motivated gesture and we might argue that he even explained it in advance to his wife, but still the promise that crowning Lyanna in front of everybody represents can only be given if your present wife is terminally ill. Otherwise, it is either reintroduction of bigamy into the Westerosi society or it is not a serious political gesture. And no one ever described Rhaegar as a joker.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

I agree that masters are the puppet masters in this game, as I mentioned earlier. One of their goals is certainly to curb all things magical. Hence, they support anti-Targaryen policy, especially since Rhaegar and Aerys showed interest in the PTWP. What I'm not clear about is their end game. And the bloody glass candles are just blowing my mind. Anyone? Any ideas about the bloody things? However, I would not compare them with the Roman Catholic Church since GRRM said that the Faith of the 7 has that role in the Westerosi society. If we are into conspiracies, they would be more like Freemasons or Illuminati.

How do you know that it was Robert's idea?

It's in the app.

(the rest, about Rhaegar, I'll elaborate later because I'm in a hurry...)

[the conquoring bastard25]

Rheagar was a man obsessed, he needed his dragon heads and he didn't care who or what got in his way. A lot of what I said could be cloaked as the doings of the others. He's more like the puppet master rather than the puppet. Except in regards to the prophecy there he was a puppet to it.

[Modesty Lannister]

Rheagar was a man obsessed, he needed his dragon heads and he didn't care who or what got in his way. A lot of what I said could be cloaked as the doings of the others. He's more like the puppet master rather than the puppet. Except in regards to the prophecy there he was a puppet to it.

See, that's where we differ greatly. I do not think he was a puppet master type. He has been dead for over a decade and no one in the books apart from Robert had anything bad to say about him. He was charismatic. He was loved. 3 KG who guarded Lyanna were willing to obey orders after his death and so on. He was a man on the mission, I agree that much. But, obsessed? I wouldn't go that far. The key of this story is to find what that mission was. So, I repeat my question. Why did he abduct Lyanna and how does that fit in the game of thrones? If we try to crack this one together that would be a breakthrough indeed.

Look at what RT did for a second:

1. He educated himself both in official and folk history and lore

2. He read something and concluded that "it seems I must be a warrior".

3. He or his father rejected Cersei as bride.

4. He or his father accepted Elia as bride.

5. He had many friends, which is not normal for GRRM's characters.

6. He was almost universally admired.

7. He was throughout to be beautiful and melancholic.

8. He was a skilled musician.

9. He knew how to play the game of thrones.

10. He tried to sway the conspirators to his side at Harrenhal tourney where his victory over other knights can be seen as a symbol.

11. He crowned Lyanna evoking the story of Beal the Bard, the King-beyong-the-wall

12. He was described as able

13. He abducted Lyanna

14. He had specific plans to change the way how the governing functions

15. He abstained from the war until Aerys forced him to join

16. He was killed stupidly

17. Like other Targaryens, he was trying to hatch a dragon again. Or he may have perceived other threats. He corresponded with Aemon on all this.

An odd end for such a prince don't you agree? But, that aside, I have been thinking about his motives for abducting Lyanna, abstaining from the war and going to the Trident totally unprepared and cannot find any. If you could help, maybe we could do something together. This is the most non-sensical part of the saga.

[DavosSeaworthy]

I think people look into this way too much and the simplest answer is likely the correct one. The North had always been more isolated than most of mainland Westeros. Rickard Stark likely saw Southron marriges as a why to create alliances and economic ties that could benefit the North. It likely had little to do with trying to usurp a throne.

[Saintwalker]

The things that seem more shadowed to me are:

01 - Did the conspirators wanted Targ rule to end ? Or just Aerys ?

Because by this point we could try and reason wether they were conspiring against the Targs or just Aerys. If Targs in general, then Rickard was making Lyanna a queen when he promised her to Robert (since Robert was next in line for the throne). If Aerys alone, then Rhaegar was together with them in the whole plot.

02 - Did Rhaegar really abducted Lyanna or she went on willingly ?

By this resolution we could try to understand what changed, if the conspirators were together with Rhaegar, maybe that's what changed, Rhaegar disonored them, and now they want the Targs out of the game.

03 - Did they want to change Westerosi power politics in any form ?!

The outreaching marriages seems to me more like alliances for separate kingdoms, since they wanted to ally themselves to other "kingdoms". If they wanted only more autonomy, then why would that alligning make sense, maybe with more autonomy also comes greater risk of being invaded by other new kings ?!

[the conquoring bastard25]

Right that's why the first book in the series is called A game of thrones. No Rickard had no reason to want to see his daughter on the throne. Not only doesn't that thought pattern fit the type of book it is but it goes against the grain of the time period that the books are set in. Everything was done for the throne or the power behind the throne. IF you don't get that by now you haven't been paying attention.

I think people look into this way too much and the simplest answer is likely the correct one. The North had always been more isolated than most of mainland Westeros. Rickard Stark likely saw Southron marriges as a why to create alliances and economic ties that could benefit the North. It likely had little to do with trying to usurp a throne.

Littlefinger is the puppet master type and Jamie and Cersi were thinking about making him hand, and Littlefinger is a monster. Its all about clean hands and impressions. It's also about cultivation of a certain image and then projecting that image. Perception is not reality no matter how much people wish it. That's why Jon Snows' rep is so important.

On a personal note, people tell me all the time that when I first met you I thought you were going to be a bitch. I'm a very quiet person or distant when I'm meeting people. I like to make assessment before I open my mouth. Many find it disconcerting but that's just the way I am. Yet after being in my presence a couple times they tell me but your not your funny and laid back. it all about perception verse what actually is.

Jon is a great guy, nice, loyal, smart..... Yet we know that because we are in his head. yet from afar or for those that don't know him his rep precedes him. He's got the rep of being craven, oathbreaker, turn cloak.... Because his enemies or those that don't like him have twisted his actions into something bad.

Rheagar I think was able to keep a sterling rep, while using those around him to do his dirty work. He was raised in kings landing after all, and its a dog eat dog world. The old adage one hand washes the other but they don't have to know what they are doing. No one person has to know all of a plan for it to come together. Not to mention that Dayne was raised in the courts of Dorne and the Red Keep he's no stranger to political intrigue or how to maneuver in that realm. Think about something that Petyr told Sansa, if you know a man you know how to move a man. That's all he would be doing, all he's doing his setting the stage and he's letting the players act out what he knows would be the out come.

A lot of that could apply to book Littlefinger. In an interview GRRM stated that Littlefinger in the books was a friend to everyone and no one was afraid of him. He was everyone's friend. That doesn't change the fact that he's a scheming lying manipulative sack of shit.

I think that after he stole Lyanna and the reason that they ran in my opinon is that I think that they were trying to prevent war. If they are married the only way that it can be undone is she's made into a widow.

So that takes Robert and his claim to the throne out of the window.

They went south to gather support for the great council that Rheagar was planning on calling.

All of this happened after he found out that he would have no choice but get Lyanna because Elia cant have any more children and the dragon must have three heads. That was part of the situation.

Then there is the fact if the plan was to set Elia aside on the ground that she was too sick to produce and heir and the crown can't be left to a female or another dance might break out. So Elia can be sent to a sept and take holy orders. Then she had Aegon and that plan went out the window and even the argument that . He's got an heir and the spare Viserys.

So the only leg that he would have to stand on would be that the Dragon had two wifes why not him? They wouldn't be sisters nor would the children be born of incest so the faith might not have that big of a deal, as the high septon tends to be a puppet figure. Which might be why Brandon when to the Capital to stop a wedding. As the seat of power for the high septon isn't in the south anymore but in Kings Landng, yet as the rest of the realm might not see the marriage as valid and she would be not his wife but his mistress and I think that Brandon might have considered that rape a stretch I know but there it is.

I think seriously he went south to get alliances. Had to know that his father was going to be pissed and now was the time to capitalize. Head south figure out away to get the head of house Martell to except the marriage. And a way for Elia and her children to still have a place in the world but also avoid bloodshed in the future when he and Lyanna are dead.

Rheagar may have been trying to let Robert do his dirty work for him. Let him attack the capital while they can't find them. That's what I would do. I don't want the name of kinslayer or butch. Robert is the one that is about to tear the realm apart for a woman, which by the way would never happen in real life. Charles of the Holy Roman Empire could have made Henry's life a living hell instead he sat back and let henry spin his wheels for years until he broke with rome. Let Robert, avenge Lyanna's family and in doing so removing the father. only that's not the way that things played out. It's just a working theory.

[Modesty Lannister]

See, you compare Rhaegar to Littlefinger. I don't see that at all. Rhaegar can be compared to Achilles with his period of doubt during the war. A hero who does not see a point in war, who is opposing it, but when forced into it, he is the best warrior. I'd compare Littlefinger to Jon Arryn (as high as honour, lol). It is no coincidence that LF has been made the lord of the Vale by GRRM. It's the same position on the chessboard. And Arryn's hands were always clean. Tywin and Robert did the dirty work. He negotiated piece. He was everybody's uncle.

No, RT was a visionary and maybe the only man not obsessed with the throne for it was his right anyway. We don't crave what we already have. He could have deposed his father anytime. He had a clear access to the Red Keep. He had loyalty of more than half of KG. But, he didn't. So, he was playing a completely different game. The key is finding out which. RT is the odd one out, like his great granduncle Aemon is amongst the maesters. There is a different way and that is RT's and Aemon's way. I'm cracking my head over this. Other players are easy to figure out, because they are playing the game of thrones.

01 - Did the conspirators wanted Targ rule to end ? Or just Aerys ?

02 - Did Rhaegar really abducted Lyanna or she went on willingly ?

03 - Did they want to change Westerosi power politics in any form ?!

01 I think they wanted Targs out as such even if they didn't necessarily start that way. Maesters were helping them plot and they wanted Targs out.

02 I think she went willingly. The rest is one big ?

03 Not really. Jon Arryn, who planed it all imho, wanted the throne to himself through his drunken pawn. He lacked age and charisma to take it himself. However, maesters may have wanted a total change of system.

[the conquoring bastard25]

Not at all. I'm saying that Littlefinger reputation is squeaky clean on the outside. To those that are looking in and don't really know or understand Littlefinger that's how he appears. But to us reader's we know what he's really been up to and how he's really played the game and that for the most part his hands are clean. That the outside worlds still see's littlefinger as a non-threat when in reality he is anything but a non threat.

Rheagar his all charm, charisma, the perfect prince to those that are looking in. To those that aren't close to him or don't share his confidence completely. To those like Whent and Dayne he's a different person. He's not as guarded and has his most trusted friends they would be able to better serve him and keep his hands clean. Help him make power plays without him tarnishing his reputation. That's not only part of their job description but it's required of those that serve the Crown. The king's reputation has to be above reproach, someone has to take the shit that the realm is unhappy about. If the realm is thought to be weak they rebel, the king is bookish or crazed they rebel. The crown has to look strong from the outside even if the crown is batshit crazy. That's why it was only rumor that Aerys was a little off. Then Duskendale happened and now it's common knowledge that the crown is more than a little unstable. Look what happen from what happen at Duskendale, it incited plots and rebellion to over throw the crown.

For example: The Cersi situation, if that's the way that it played out it was smoothly done and the best part Cersi can't tell a soul and Rheagar's hands remain clean of the mounting tensions between his father and Tywin. Cersi can't tell her father because she's still under the impression that she's going to marry Rheagar and with as angry he would be about Jamie in the Kingsguard it might jeopardize the wedding. If she does tell the would make her think/know that her future husband would think that he can't trust her. That he might not want to marry her because she can't keep a secret. It's using the tools that are on hand turning the situation to your advantage. IF you are trying to get rid of your father and you know that your father's enemy's daughter had a crush on you. You have a great need of something done and it's to your advantage to use this said daughter as kingdoms are at stake it's not that monstrous it's practical and pragmatic. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Tywin is Aerys enemy making him Rheagar's friend, even if he doesn't know it yet.

I think that GRRM is setting up on the outside that Lyanna and Rheagar was suppose to be a love story. It was but it was also a love story of politics. Rheagar is suppose to be murky right now in regards his motivations. We know that he was obsessed with the prophecy, that was part of his whole world. That he changed his nature from being the book worm to being the warrior, because he thought he must be. He's dutiful as he married probably to make his mother happy as she did know martells mother in her youth. If anything I think that's where his sensitive nature comes in from, his long suffering mother. Yet, GRRM also reinforces over and over that life is not a song. That behind all the great song and hero's of legend there was grief, pain , suffering and lots of blood shed. That a song is pretty and something that fools and small children believe in, while in life it is not that way, its gritty, dirty, messy and at times there are no good choices only hard and terrible choices. Sometimes the only course of action is the distasteful, that in the long run it was probably the right choice. Honor and valor are great but if you can't back it up with the stomach to do what needs to be done you might as well pack your bags and go home. That's why I strip away the romance and love factor and look at the logical or at least my version of logical. Love and emotions get in the way they cloud the issue.

[the conquoring bastard25]

Your right about visionary in regards to Rheagar be every vision comes with a price and having the balls to get your hands dirty.