Rickard Stark's Southron Ambitions

[Hippocras]

I have not forgotten about this thread, but responding will take some work and I am working on something else. TBC.

[the conquoring bastard25]

The next thing that I'm about to say it's so monsterous and devious I can't believe I haven't seen it before, but maybe I'm not emotionally detached as I thought.

/

Have you ever considered that he expected Lyanna's brother to react just as he did ? That while he's telling lyanna that the only way that they can prevent bloodshed and the realm being torn apart is for them to run away. That by taking the queen of the table would check the potential king as he losses the martial value in the alliance. Rickard is still going to get his grandchild on the throne even if he didn't want it to play out that way and he knows that in the future the realm might have to bleed because of it. That once they are married her father can't tear them apart and as his good father he's bound by blood to help him overthrow his father.

Yet he still needs someone to cause a ruckous about her abduction, that's where Brandon and his reckless nature comes into play. Rheagar overplayed the hand though. Instead of the hand whom would have been his friend Jon Con by the time of the burning couldn't stem the tide. The realm would be outraged that the King had seized such noble and proud famous names. The king must be mad indeed, it would stir the other lords into action. That if the king could seize Rickard Stark on treason charges what hope is there for the rest of us. He didn't know that his father would truly go over the edge and no one could stop the folly that happened next.

Remember they didn't call their banner until after Rickard was dead. If the plan was for Rheagar to go south with Ly and gather support for the Grand Council that would make sense why they would now be bound to help by blood. Brandon didn't know that Rickard knew and Ned that it wasn't rape. I truly believed that Ned knew and that he wasn't raising his banner for Lyanna but for his father and brother.

After Brandon was arrested it would have been an easy thing for Rickard to call the banner, he didn't. Rickard understood what they had done and the whys of what they had done. Which strikes me that Elia might have been willing to go into a sept as long as Aegon was Rheagar's heir before any by Lyanna. That may be why he wasn't concerned about leaving them in the care of Aerys or the kingguard when he left to get Stark.

Aerys has been living in Tywin's shadow forever they've been friends since they were children. Tywin at a very tender age made a name for himself as a bad ass lord and leader of men. Also, men may not love him but they sure as hell respected and feared him. Compared to that what major feats or great things has Aerys did? It wasn't him leading men during the last blackfyre rebellion, it wasn't him that slew the last of the pretenders to his throne, that honor fell to men better skilled at arms.

If you know that Brandon is reckless and push him into a situation to be reckless but use the recklessness to your advantage. So just how unpredictable his father had become and he needs to be stop for the sake of the realm. He just didn't calculate that his father was totally off the goddamn ralles and he makes it so the only recourse was war.

[Hippocras]

Well without going into it point by point just yet, I really think it would serve you best to base your theory at least SOMEWHAT on what we know of each character. Our knowledge is not perfect, but we really should not be completely ignoring the bits that ARE known.

1. Aerys: Was charming and generous when he was younger, but progressively went mad. Why?

2. Rhaegar: the only person who seems to think he was evil is Robert Baratheon, and we can hardly call HIM impartial. Rhaegar was well loved by many people it seems, and was really very obsessed with prophesy. His readings drove his actions so much that after having spent his early years reading and making music, he suddenly announced he needed to become a warrior because of something he found in a book.

3. Jon Arryn: Ned loved him very much. He seems to have been Ned's model of how to live life with honour.

4. Rickard Stark: Likely either the son or the husband of the pregnant woman Bran saw in his vision who wanted a son to avenge her. Brandon's betrothal to Catelyn was his maester's idea, not his.

5. Hoster Tully: the source of Catelyn's strong value of family first, above everything else. Fiercely stubborn. Held long grudges.

6. Tywin Lannister: Excessive brutality and ambition, but driven by insecurity. Need to compensate for his father's "weakness".

7. House Martell: Hardest call of all.

8. House Dayne: ok, this one is hard also.

9. Robert Baratheon: unclear why he was Jon Arryn's ward, but otherwise loved Jon, loved Ned, and through them met and fell in love with Lyanna. When Lyanna chose Rhaegar, he preferred to believe it was rape rather than that his ideal dream woman might have chosen someone else.

Please add any relevant details.

[the conquoring bastard25]

IF most of the realm saw Rheagar as a good guy and Robert as a monster I think that the truth is somewhere in between. That hes a good guy most of the time but that doesn't mean that he would shrink from a distasteful task. look at Elia and the crowning. Leaving his family and children with a mad man. Those aren' t actions of a great guy but a jerk. His son is a lot like him, dutiful and will get the job done and isn't afraid to get the job done. So while he may have a sterling reputation I'm sure there is a dark side to this man.

then there is this why not leave a letter or message unless you wanted Brandon to react the way that he did?

Not telling Brandon the hot head, would help your motives if your trying to still go to war against your father but don't believe that he would really do him harm. It's like the crowning. It was cruel but politically needed.

Aerys- It would have to be Duskendale. look at what he did once he was rescued he has the whole line killed but one. To show that the dragon is harsh when messed with but not without mercy by sparing Dontos. He did the same thing after he killed Brandon nad his father. He let one of the highborn prisoner go after he killed all the rest. I think that in his madness he was trying to be like Tywin. That is something that he would do but he wouldn't make a spectacle out of the executions. Didn't Aerys threatned to tear down Darry castle?

After that he was never the same. he became a parniod crazy man. Jamie mentions that he was afraid of the blades those that he could never escaped. Does anyone think that he might have had the dreams or prophetic dreams?

[Hippocras]

The point isn't so much his sterling reputation. It is his obsession with prophesy that I think you are completely ignoring. His actions were driven by prophesy above all else.

[Modesty Lannister]

Well without going into it point by point just yet, I really think it would serve you best to base your theory at least SOMEWHAT on what we know of each character. Our knowledge is not perfect, but we really should not be completely ignoring the bits that ARE known.

1. Aerys: Was charming and generous when he was younger, but progressively went mad. Why?

I addressed most of these characters, but hey who's reading my posts.

So, here we go again...

1. It's Duskendale, I agree. He must have had a nervous breakdown, but he held his mental state in check up until after the Harrenhal tourney. Since we know Varys told him RT plotted against him, I think that was the last straw, as well as the events at the tourney itself. But, I wouldn't underestimate one more thing. Aerys was against marrying his sister. He was imho in love with Joanna Lannister and would have married her had it not been for the prophesy. So, this may be a catalyst for two actions:

a. being opposed to Rhaegar's prophesy driven behaviour

b. taking Tywin as Hand. My theory is that Joanna remained Aerys' mistress throughout her life and that Aerys had this covered up by marrying her to Tywin who was ambitious, friends with Joanna and willing to enter into the bargain to promote his House, shaken after Tytos' rule. Remember Genna Lannister's assessment that Tywin smiled at his wedding and when he was made Hand. It was said in the same sentence implying that the two events were interconnected. Also, I believe Tywin knows he is infertile. That's why he insists on Tyrion "planting a seed" into Sansa's womb all the time. He knows children are not his, but he would have no heirs otherwise. He is willing to give CR to Jaime a son of Aerys, but not to Tyrion whose parentage is not clear or is Dornish as I suspect, but that's an issue for another thread. So, I think loss of Joanna and Duskindale finished Aerys off mentally.

2. Rhaegar: the only person who seems to think he was evil is Robert Baratheon, and we can hardly call HIM impartial. Rhaegar was well loved by many people it seems, and was really very obsessed with prophesy. His readings drove his actions so much that after having spent his early years reading and making music, he suddenly announced he needed to become a warrior because of something he found in a book.

2. Indeed. I believe that RT was driven by knowledge. He mastered all the books available at an early age, as well as music and popular lore. This is important, because it shows that RT didn't think that answers to all his questions could be found in books. He became aware through research that he must learn how to fight and fight well. He was also close to maester Aemon and I think this is the most important piece of information on RT. I think many answers are hiding in examination of how Aemon thinks about the world. Effectively, Aemon was an exiled maester who disagreed with the official political line of the Old Town. He was able to give all possible information to RT on maesters' hidden agenda that other lords were not privy to. RT was not obsessed with the Iron Throne or the game around it. He was obsessed with how things really worked. The fact that he could make women cry with his music may be linked to his knowledge about CotF. Maybe he was trying to recreate Earth song? Also, note that RT was described as able. Able to do anything he wished. So, I think he wished for this to finish the way it did. I cannot prove it yet, but I think that RT was fine with how things worked out in the end. Feel free to throw stones at me now.

3. Jon Arryn: Ned loved him very much. He seems to have been Ned's model of how to live life with honour.

3. I think this is the biggest misconception readers have. It is Catelyn who says to Ned - I know he was like a father to you. It is not Ned. Ned doesn't share any thoughts on Jon Arryn with us. Not a single childhood memory, not a thought on his character and that is very important. What does Ned investigate at KL. Not the allegations Lysa made in her letter, but whatever Jon was investigating. Why? Because he knows that will lead him to the murder suspect. This also means Ned knew Jon had a scheming mind. Do not forget that Jon married Lysa who was much younger only for swords. He wanted an heir and he kept trying to get one no matter what the cost to her health both physical and mental was. She had no problem poisoning him. Yes, we can argue she would do anything for LF, but had Jon been a decent husband I doubt she would have done it so easily. He is a schemer, mastermind with clean hands and a true climber and the winner of RR. He was the one who arranged the match between Robert and Lyanna.

4. Rickard Stark: Likely either the son or the husband of the pregnant woman Bran saw in his vision who wanted a son to avenge her. Brandon's betrothal to Catelyn was his maester's idea, not his.

4. We don't know that. That's what lady Dustin says and she was just Brandon's mistress. So, caution there. He was certainly very ambitions and unskilled in southern ways. That's why he failed miserably in the end. His "southern ambition" led him to agree to Robert/Lyanna match as well as Brandon/Catelyn one that amount to a military alliance with Stormlands and Riverlands. He gave Ned to Jon Arryn for fostering, which in military terms mean he gave his second son as a hostage to the Vale as an endurance that he will remain true to the alliance.

5. Hoster Tully: the source of Catelyn's strong value of family first, above everything else. Fiercely stubborn. Held long grudges.

5. See my earlier post on father-in-law of 7 kingdoms. In short, Hoster planed to marry:

Catelyn to Brandon Stark - alliance with the North

Lysa to Jaime Lannister - alliance with Westerlands

Brandon to Bethany Redwyne - alliance with one of the most powerful families in the Reach, possible pretenders to the place of Lords Paramount in case of Tyrell demise. This indicates Hoster's hostility towards Targaryens

Edmure to Aryanne - alliance with Dorne

Two things are notable here:

the absence of matches with Targaryens, which indicates that he was indeed against the crown

the absence of matches with the Vale, which indicates that there was no need for alliance since it already existed, which was later confirmed by the marriage between Lysa and Jon Arryn, which had to secure Jon's heir since he lost him to Aerys' wrath

He was ruthless. He exiled Blackfish and almost killed Lysa for messing up his plans and schemes. I think he was worse than Tywin who may have been harsh with words, but never harmed "his" children. Not even Tyrion. Just remember how Hoster dealt with those who opposed him after RR.

6. Tywin Lannister: Excessive brutality and ambition, but driven by insecurity. Need to compensate for his father's "weakness".

6. Covered that in my earlier posts and in this about Aerys. Tywin seemed the second position for his family in all 7 kingdoms. After becoming Hand to Aerys, he wanted to marry Cersei to RT and Jaime to Lysa Tully securing alliances with both camps. Both plans fell through and he retreated from the GoT only to return when the second place was secured by Jon Arryn who brokered the Cersei/Robert match. He was ready and willing to do all the dirty work for it - kill the royal family with a revenge to Martell's who succeeded where he failed (RT/Elia) as an added bonus. He continued to ensure the stability of the realm by financing the new crown. He can be described as able and pragmatic - real politician. Personally, he is willing to take any sacrifice for his house. As I said, I believe his marriage was a political ruse to further his house position. I believe he used the tunnel between his rooms of the Hand and a brothel on regular basis and Shae's presence in his bed is a confirmation into that his private life was far from what it seemed to be.

7. House Martell: Hardest call of all.

7. Well, not really. Martells are keen to keep their autonomy and close links to Targaryens since they both descend for Essos (Valyria). Doran is a prudent man and he knows more than all the others combined. And he knows how to wait. He signed a marriage contract with the Targaryens and waited for over a decade for the right moment to enact it. The best diplomat in 7 kingdoms. Excellent psychologist. Burned heavily by his sister's death. He is all for revenge, but he is like a cobra. He sits and waits and when he strikes, it will be effective.

8. House Dayne: ok, this one is hard also.

8. Loyal to Martells and RT. Not hard at all.

9. Robert Baratheon: unclear why he was Jon Arryn's ward, but otherwise loved Jon, loved Ned, and through them met and fell in love with Lyanna. When Lyanna chose Rhaegar, he preferred to believe it was rape rather than that his ideal dream woman might have chosen someone else.

9. He is a classic pawn. Jon Arryn plucked him out of Storm's End to create the man we met. The man whom Jon can easily manipulate and who will feel so detached from his house roots that he will turn against Targs. Stannis is a different story altogether.

EDIT: numbers and typos

Edit 2: added some assessments

[Hippocras]

Can people try to keep the numbers intact in their replies? It makes it easier to organize point-by point answers.

Modestly Lannister, could you maybe do an edit and add in the numbers?

[the conquoring bastard25]

The point isn't so much his sterling reputation. It is his obsession with prophesy that I think you are completely ignoring. His actions were driven by prophesy above all else.

Oh no I agree I think that all of his motivations were based partly about the prophecy. He had tunnel vision. That's where the out of character of cruel behavior comes from. Not that he's a mad man, but he's driven obsessed and once his first wife was no longer viable, it's time of move on to someone that can give him that third dragons head, only he didn't care whom he hurt because his over all goal was noble in intent. He was trying to save the world from a zombie apocalypse.

But on the other hand, he is the crown prince. If he's trying to also save the realm from the mad man that his father became he can't be viewed as a monster or crazy like his father. He's got to keep his hands like Littlefinger said clean hands. He's got to keep the shiny knight, gallant prince routine to counterbalance.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Motivation for Rhaegar to want Brandon to go...well, Brandon about it. If hothead gets himself in trouble and ends up causing a rebellion, Rhaegar puts down the rebellion but one of the points of the peace treaty is that he becomes king. That way he didn't usurp his father's throne or steal it, he merely acceded to the wishes of the people.

I wonder how badly we're all overthinking this, and if it's really far more simple than we expect. Still, this is an awesome way to kill time between books.

Hippocras, I have a question about the Rickard/maester dynamic. Isn't it ikely that Rickard was batting the breeze with his maester about wanting to forge a southron alliance for his heir, and the maester, just trying to be helpful, points out that Lord Tully has daughters of marriageable age? Just because the maester gave him the idea doesn't mean the maester had any kind of ulterior motive. Maesters are there to serve and advise. If the Lord asks for information, the maester provides it. Not sure if you personally were implying that the maester was the one with the ambitions, but I've seen that comment made before by others so I thought it was worth addressing.

ETA: we know that Rhaegar was really into prophecy when he was young, but we don't know that he continued to be driven only by that as he matured. When he was a kid, of course he thought he was the chosen one. For years he was the only issue from Aerys and Rhaella's line. And kids don't usually think ahead to coming generations. It made sense for him to think that as a boy. I do wonder why he totally discounted Viserys after he was born though, and decided that TPtwP had to be his son, and couldn't be his brother.

[the conquoring bastard25]

I addressed most of these characters, but hey who's reading my posts.

So, here we go again...

1. It's Duskendale, I agree. He must have had a nervous breakdown, but he held his mental state in check up until after the Harrenhal tourney. Since we know Varys told him RT plotted against him, I think that was the last straw, as well as the events at the tourney itself. But, I wouldn't underestimate one more thing. Aerys was against marrying his sister. He was imho in love with Joanna Lannister and would have married her had it not been for the prophesy. So, this may be a catalyst for two actions:

a. being opposed to Rhaegar's prophesy driven behaviour

b. taking Tywin as Hand. My theory is that Joanna remained Aerys' mistress throughout her life and that Aerys had this covered up by marrying her to Tywin who was ambitious, friends with Joanna and willing to enter into the bargain to promote his House, shaken after Tytos' rule. Remember Genna Lannister's assessment that Tywin smiled at his wedding and when he was made Hand. It was said in the same sentence implying that the two events were interconnected. Also, I believe Tywin knows he is infertile. That's why he insists on Tyrion "planting a seed" into Sansa's womb all the time. He knows children are not his, but he would have no heirs otherwise. He is willing to give CR to Jaime a son of Aerys, but not to Tyrion whose parentage is not clear or is Dornish as I suspect, but that's an issue for another thread. So, I think loss of Joanna and Duskindale finished Aerys off mentally.

2. Indeed. I believe that RT was driven by knowledge. He mastered all the books available at an early age, as well as music and popular lore. This is important, because it shows that RT didn't think that answers to all his questions could be found in books. He became aware through research that he must learn how to fight and fight well. He was also close to maester Aemon and I think this is the most important piece of information on RT. I think many answers are hiding in examination of how Aemon thinks about the world. Effectively, Aemon was an exiled maester who disagreed with the official political line of the Old Town. He was able to give all possible information to RT on maesters' hidden agenda that other lords were not privy to. RT was not obsessed with the Iron Throne or the game around it. He was obsessed with how things really worked. The fact that he could make women cry with his music may be linked to his knowledge about CotF. Maybe he was trying to recreate Earth song? Also, note that RT was described as able. Able to do anything he wished. So, I think he wished for this to finish the way it did. I cannot prove it yet, but I think that RT was fine with how things worked out in the end. Feel free to throw stones at me now.

3. I think this is the biggest misconception readers have. It is Catelyn who says to Ned - I know he was like a father to you. It is not Ned. Ned doesn't share any thoughts on Jon Arryn with us. Not a single childhood memory, not a thought on his character and that is very important. What does Ned investigate at KL. Not the allegations Lysa made in her letter, but whatever Jon was investigating. Why? Because he knows that will lead him to the murder suspect. This also means Ned knew Jon had a scheming mind. Do not forget that Jon married Lysa who was much younger only for swords. He wanted an heir and he kept trying to get one no matter what the cost to her health both physical and mental was. She had no problem poisoning him. Yes, we can argue she would do anything for LF, but had Jon been a decent husband I doubt she would have done it so easily. He is a schemer, mastermind with clean hands and a true climber and the winner of RR. He was the one who arranged the match between Robert and Lyanna.

4. We don't know that. That's what lady Dustin says and she was just Brandon's mistress. So, caution there. He was certainly very ambitions and unskilled in southern ways. That's why he failed miserably in the end. His "southern ambition" led him to agree to Robert/Lyanna match as well as Brandon/Catelyn one that amount to a military alliance with Stormlands and Riverlands. He gave Ned to Jon Arryn for fostering, which in military terms mean he gave his second son as a hostage to the Vale as an endurance that he will remain true to the alliance.

5. See my earlier post on father-in-law of 7 kingdoms. In short, Hoster planed to marry:

Catelyn to Brandon Stark - alliance with the North

Lysa to Jaime Lannister - alliance with Westerlands

Brandon to Bethany Redwyne - alliance with one of the most powerful families in the Reach, possible pretenders to the place of Lords Paramount in case of Tyrell demise. This indicates Hoster's hostility towards Targaryens

Edmure to Aryanne - alliance with Dorne

Two things are notable here:

the absence of matches with Targaryens, which indicates that he was indeed against the crown

the absence of matches with the Vale, which indicates that there was no need for alliance since it already existed, which was later confirmed by the marriage between Lysa and Jon Arryn, which had to secure Jon's heir since he lost him to Aerys' wrath

He was ruthless. He exiled Blackfish and almost killed Lysa for messing up his plans and schemes. I think he was worse than Tywin who may have been harsh with words, but never harmed "his" children. Not even Tyrion. Just remember how Hoster dealt with those who opposed him after RR.

6. Covered that in my earlier posts and in this about Aerys. Tywin seemed the second position for his family in all 7 kingdoms. After becoming Hand to Aerys, he wanted to marry Cersei to RT and Jaime to Lysa Tully securing alliances with both camps. Both plans fell through and he retreated from the GoT only to return when the second place was secured by Jon Arryn who brokered the Cersei/Robert match. He was ready and willing to do all the dirty work for it - kill the royal family with a revenge to Martell's who succeeded where he failed (RT/Elia) as an added bonus. He continued to ensure the stability of the realm by financing the new crown. He can be described as able and pragmatic - real politician. Personally, he is willing to take any sacrifice for his house. As I said, I believe his marriage was a political ruse to further his house position. I believe he used the tunnel between his rooms of the Hand and a brothel on regular basis and Shae's presence in his bed is a confirmation into that his private life was far from what it seemed to be.

7. Well, not really. Martells are keen to keep their autonomy and close links to Targaryens since they both descend for Essos (Valyria). Doran is a prudent man and he knows more than all the others combined. And he knows how to wait. He signed a marriage contract with the Targaryens and waited for over a decade for the right moment to enact it. The best diplomat in 7 kingdoms. Excellent psychologist. Burned heavily by his sister's death. He is all for revenge, but he is like a cobra. He sits and waits and when he strikes, it will be effective.

8. Loyal to Martells and RT. Not hard at all.

9. He is a classic pawn. Jon Arryn plucked him out of Storm's End to create the man we met. The man whom Jon can easily manipulate and who will feel so detached from his house roots that he will turn against Targs. Stannis is a different story altogether.

EDIT: numbers and typos

Edit 2: added some assessments

1) I like the idea of Aerys and Joanna Lannister being lovers, that would makes sense given Tywin's continued denial that Tyrion is his son. I could never prove that you were not mine, but it has shamed me to see you waddling around in that proud lion that was my fathers not your grandsire as if Jonna is the mother he wouldn't be her father but her uncle.

a) Then there are the liberties that he took at the wedding feast.

b) I want to throw this out there and see how it's interpreted. In Arya's new chapter where she's playing the part of Mercy. She found out something that I'm surprised that other's that are so sure that Varys is a secret Targ. Tywin before Steffron Baratheon went overseas to find a bride, Tywin had already been to Lys, while serving as hand for Aerys.

Lys is the same place that 1) Aegon IV found his last mistress whom was from an improvised branch of house Targaryan. 2) Lys is also the place that Aerion Brightflame spent his time in exile and GRRM has hinted that he may have left a few bastards laying around the island. How does this impact the story?

1)Varys tells Tyrion that the he was traveled the realm with a troupe of Mummers' and his master got an offer to rich to refuse and sold him to the man that cut him. a)we know that it was Tywin that sent Aerys and his father to the woods witch that gave the prophecy of the prince that was promised would be born from their line. What was it that Tywin told Tyrion about who was likely to bid higher then them? b) Varys was born in Lys but grew up in Myr. c) Tywin wasn't to make is daughter queen. In Jamie's dream about his mother she said that he wanted a son that was a knight and a daughter that was a queen. If Tywin went there to make a marriage pact for Rheagar but instead separated the twins instead that would makes sense Varys and his hatred of Tywin Lannister. On the show, there was one scene were the spider looked at Lannister like he wanted to throttle him right there and they weren't even having a conversation or argument, he had just walked into the room. It was a priceless look.

Rheagar-

1) I think that you are right that when looking at his actions that the mythical and him willing to save the world should always be at the top of the list when examining his actions good or bad.

2) Honestly I can see Jon making a deal with Tywin and have him kill the little prince and princess. He wanted Roberts hands clean. That's why Tywin was racing to the capital. Jon was smart enough to know that Ned couldn't do it, and Robert shouldn't do it. The carrot that he dangled in Tywin land to get him to obey, Jamie Lannister and those bloody vows, all roads led down the vows gullet. Which is why Tywin was soo sure that Jamie was going to be free of those vows. Yet when Jamie killed the king, Jon had no choice to renege. It was either Jamie stay in the guard or the wall but he would never be lord of the Rock. He can't reward the Kingslayer with the richest plum in the kingdom. It really would make Robert weak that he can't do his own killing.

[the conquoring bastard25]

it wasn't RT that was leveraging Cersi, it was his mother. Think about it, the same way that Cersi later leveraged Sansa, is the way that Queen Rhella

[Theon {HUNGRY WOLF} Stark]

Some poster have said that we should judge Rhaegar's action based on his end goal? Should we ignore the catastrophic rebellion (that was maybe already in process but covert and would have been possibly bloodless) was expedited and made necessarily bloody? Should we call Rhaegar a good character just becoz his actions supposedly resulted in ptwp ignoring all bloodbath in between?

[the conquoring bastard25]

Right now we are trying to figure out how far the plot went and how deep it was. Then once we've got the players involved identified then we can start figuring out motivations and how if all went wrong before we piece it all together.

Some poster have said that we should judge Rhaegar's action based on his end goal? Should we ignore the catastrophic rebellion (that was maybe already in process but covert and would have been possibly bloodless) was expedited and made necessarily bloody? Should we call Rhaegar a good character just becoz his actions supposedly resulted in ptwp ignoring all bloodbath in between?

I don't think that we are ignoring that, I think that we are trying to see how even with all the best intentions shit happens...

I've got some questions about some other people that might have been involved in the plot.

Lyn Corbray- he got his spurs for killing Lewyn on the trident, but he was in the enemy camp(uncouth Arryns) and then once Arryn kicked Gullstown and the uncouth Arryn's asses he turned his cloak . What if he was a spy/turn cloak for a white cloak. He was suppose (before Rickard and Brandon's death) gather forces for Aerys "so" Arryn could put them down in Rheagar's name.

Arryn' s motivation for this it gets Corbray a deed worthy of a white cloak(he was working for the new king) and in the process he wipes out a bunch of rival's for his seat in a more sophisticated and smoother Rains of Castermere. Which he can place his heir to the Vale currently while replacing his own son by Lysa on the seat of Arryn.

The Queen, what if she was the one to suggest to Cersi to get her brother to join the white.

Uses some cutpurse to rid the guard of the old lion so that Jamie can join. Then uses Ashara Dayne to talk to Arthur about taking Jamie under his wing. Then when the spot opens up Ashara can suggest to her brother whom just spent a bunch of time with Jamie has seen that he's got the skill. The bond between Squire and Knight is a close one. Arthur may have known that his sister was working him but he could see the good sense in having fresh blood beholden to Rheagar and not Aerys would be important.

Then there is Hosteen's reaction it was the one you would expect but what if it was a mummer's farce. Instead of Rheagar using Brandon, he walked into the dragon's mouth willingly to give the North the pretext for raising their banners. Then his father went to King's landing, yet many have said that his reaction was too, calm and he didn't raise the banners, but his younger son and the lord of the Stormlords are safe in the Vale poised and waiting but waiting for what?

This Rickard when south with 200 men, a token force from the North, Vale and Trident. The Lords of said regions and the Stormlords are also are ready close at hand ready to come to the capital to call a Grand Council. But really to take the city from the inside.

Brandon tells the Dragon to come out and die. What if the plan was to get Aerys to arrest him, while Ly and Rheagar were in the south mustering lords and ladies of the southern realm to displace his father.

Maybe the plan was for the 200 allow themselves to be arrest and wait for Rheagar to race to the city to Rescue his wife/ children and his betrothed's father and brother. To save them from the evil King that would have done something crazy to them.

Rheagar get the realm in a bloodless coup, gets a wife that can produce the 3 dragon head, has an heir that was the prince. The queen is free of her loving husband and the king is free of the blades that torment him. Everyone's happy even Elia as Aegon comes first in the sucession for the throne and she set her husband free to be loved. She did love him and would have wanted him happy even if it wasn't with her. Or she's dying anyway and she got the peace of mind her family is safe and Rheagar won't be alone.

Only the Maester were playing their own game and they screwed everything up.

[Theon {HUNGRY WOLF} Stark]

Just a thought. First I think we are making a mountain out of a molehill on this topic. All we have is Barbery Dustin talking about "southton ambition" and "grey sheep". Everything else is circumstancial at best. And second GRRM is nevet going to confirm this. He would have to write whole new book for this. All participants"

[Theon {HUNGRY WOLF} Stark]

Just a thought. First I think we are making a mountain out of a molehill on this topic. All we have is Barbery Dustin talking about "southton ambition" and "grey sheep". Everything else is circumstancial at best. And second GRRM is nevet going to confirm this. He would have to write whole new book for this. All participants" are dead. Who will tell the whole story.

[Modesty Lannister]

Just a thought. First I think we are making a mountain out of a molehill on this topic. All we have is Barbery Dustin talking about "southton ambition" and "grey sheep". Everything else is circumstancial at best. And second GRRM is nevet going to confirm this. He would have to write whole new book for this. All participants" are dead. Who will tell the whole story.

GRRM has nothing to confirm. He wrote the books. It's for us to interpret them. Some people interpret in one way, the others have another way. The more layers of interpretation people find, the better the books.

[Hippocras]

GRRM has nothing to confirm. He wrote the books. It's for us to interpret them. Some people interpret in one way, the others have another way. The more layers of interpretation people find, the better the books.

agreed. But we are, in the process, producing material for another book. ;)

[Theon {HUNGRY WOLF} Stark]

agreed. But we are, in the process, producing material for another book. ;)

Agreed. ;) ;)

[Theon {HUNGRY WOLF} Stark]

GRRM has nothing to confirm. He wrote the books. It's for us to interpret them. Some people interpret in one way, the others have another way. The more layers of interpretation people find, the better the books.

Agreed. But other theories like R+L=J are more or less confirmed. GRRM has just to spell them if he chosses to do so. This theory has so many conjectures and assumptions. Even GNC can be found in fragmented parts. Just some links are missing.

[Modesty Lannister]

The next thing that I'm about to say it's so monsterous and devious I can't believe I haven't seen it before, but maybe I'm not emotionally detached as I thought.

I do not think RT had a motive to set up Brandon Stark.

agreed. But we are, in the process, producing material for another book. ;)

Lol. That's very true judging by the amount of writing I did re ToJ. However, I do not think RT set Brandon up. First of all, in order to set someone up, you have to know him. I don't see much evidence of Brandon and RT knowing each other well. We know they met at HT, but there is no recollection of their interactions. So, what did LF say? "Know what the man wants and then you will move him (as a figure in the GoT)". So, who did know him? Certainly, Hoster Tully and Jon Arryn. They are the ones who needed an excuse to start the war. So, when the message of Lyanna's disappearance reached Riverrun, Hoster may have had it blown up out of all proportions and sent a messenger to Brandon with a new interpretation. Note that it is not impossible that Hoster and Arryn planed Jon's marriage to Lysa all along. Maybe it was not as hasty as it seemed.

Imho the biggest mystery here is why Lyanna went with Rhaegar? Did she flee to him or did he initiate it? Motives such as "she wanted to flee Robert", would make sense if we were talking about her approaching nuptuals. But, that wasn't the case.

Also, we have two people who would be directly willing to harm Brandon at that stage. LF is one of course. The other is Barbrey Ryswell (Dustin) whom he left for Catelyn. So, do not underestimate rouge players in this. Not everything in life goes according to plan and GRRM demonstrated that many times in this saga.

So, let's examine both cases:

1. At the time Brandon's host was traveling to Riverlands, LF was most probably either on his way to the Fingers or still in bed in Riverrun after being seriously wounded by Brandon in a duel.

- In bed: So, when a message from Winterfell about Lyanna being gone arrived, Lysa would be the one to pass the news to LF, because they concern the family that he hates. In that case, it is possible that LF sent/bribed one of his servants to ride towards Brandon's host and spread the additional news of rape. News of Lyanna's disappearance could have reached Brandon already via messenger from either Riverrun or Winterfell.

- on the road: If LF was already on his way to the Fingers, it would be difficult for him to know anything about Lyanna. However, if he accidentally met Brandon's host on his way, he may have executed the same false news planting plan that I have already described.

2. Barbrey may have spotted Rhaegar's host with Lyanna and send a messenger to Brandon with the news. It all depends how the message read. Barbrey's motives may have even been honorable. Maybe she was trying to convey that she was still loyal to her former lover. However, it may have been badly misinterpreted.