Rickard Stark's Southron Ambitions

[Hippocras]

1. Aerys had certainly been resentful and nasty to Tywin for quite a while before Duskendale, and that was somewhat the source of his paranoia, because as Hand Tywin had the real power and everyone knew it. He refused Cersei for Rhaegar very shortly before Duskendale, deliberately to humiliate Tywin. Aerys being attracted to Joanna is part of the tense dynamic I am sure, though it is not clear why he called Tywin a servant. In any case Aerys's resentment and tendency towards paranoia predates Duskendale, but Duskendale brought it out to the level of madness (not Harrenhal). After Duskendale he refused to leave the Red Keep for years. I am not convinced BTW by the Joanna as Aerys's lover theory - but for another thread.

Aerys hired Varys and brought him to King's Landing around this time. I would very much love to know who told Aerys about Varys. The princess of Dorne who was at court with Joanna, or someone else connected to the Martells? How old is the Varys/Martell link? If older than Varys's arrival in King's Landing, we can guess he may have been the one who suggested Elia for Rhaegar, and was secretly working in the Martells' interest.

2. Aemon was already at the Wall when Rhaegar was born BTW, so not sure how they could have been close. He went at the same time Bloodraven went.

I accept the theory that Rhaegar was possibly concerned by the level of alliance-building via marriage of the high Lords. However because the plot need not be interpreted as anything more than ensuring the Kingdoms continued to have common cause, Rhaegar's concern was likely not all that extreme. He was likely acting with caution rather than genuine fear of what was taking place. He might even have encouraged it, if you take into account the rest of my points below. The big wildcard, of course, is what he interpreted from the prophesies. However as those tend to be quite vague, I will assume the prophesies simply made it clear that the Long Night was coming, the Kingdoms would spiral into a mad cycle of vengeance and destruction, and that to combat this, three dragon heads were needed and a PtwP who may or may not be one of the dragon heads as well.

Something about the prophesies indicated that his marriage to Elia was either not right or not enough to produce these "heads of the dragon". This, combined with the slightly worrying grand alliances was the inspiration for Harrenhal. At Harrenhal, Rhaegar held some kind of secret negotiations, and also selected his new intended bride. However the way he proceeded after Harrenhal, frankly, suggests to me that the abduction might have been Lyanna's idea. It is straight out of Northern heritage and culture to "steal" a bride. It must have been obvious that this would enrage Robert Baratheon and Lyanna's father. But I think they did not count on Brandon's actions. That is where something (or someone) went wrong.

3. Ned's love and respect for Jon Arryn is very obvious IMO. He was a good Hand and the Kingdoms had peace from the Rebellion until he died. Even if Ned doesn't share many specific thoughts, the general accounts given of Jon Arryn pretty much agree: he was honourable. Jon's trip to Dorne to deliver Lewyn's bones and make peace with them was his initiative. There are clues scattered throughout the books that he was Ned's role model. I don't know why you think this is a "mistake" in other words. There is nothing in the books to make us believe otherwise.

4. We don't really know what you claim here either. His "ambition" was also just something Lady Dustin said. Walys Flowers would never have been mentioned at all if he did not have a role GRRM wanted us to know about, so I think it is safe to say it is true that Walys proposed the Tully marriage. As for Rickard, he may actually have been an exceptional diplomat, or he may have been a recluse. We don't know anything about the man, unfortunately. But let's say he did have ambitions - what were they? And if they are relevant, surely Bran's vision is at least as relevant and therefore likely connected? What else would be the point of telling us Bran's vision of a woman who wanted a son to avenge her? I think it makes perfect sense to connect the two hints GRRM has left us here, though it is, of course, conjecture.

5. Why does a Redwyne alliance mean hostility to Targaryens? It means nothing of the sort IMO. The Redwynes were loyal to the Targaryens, so if anything it was the opposite. In my opinion you are reading way too much into the absence of Targaryen marriages. If they wanted to make an ally of Tywin, they would not go against him on the one thing he wanted most - the Cersei+Rhaegar match, and the Lysa+Jamie match clearly indicates they wanted Tywin as an ally. At the time, Rhaegar was the only Targaryen available it seems. So no Targaryen match does not at all indicate hostility to Targaryens. This group intended for Cersei to marry Rhaegar.

6. See 5.

7. When did Doran become Dorne's leader? Was he the one making decisions at this point in time, or was it his mother?The Martells seem to have been playing solo at the time though - pretending to be willing to join this grand alliance, but actually playing their own Targaryens only game. This is why they were willing to go against Tywin to have Elia marry Rhaegar when none of the others proposed daughters as brides for Rhaegar.

8. We actually don't know right now how loyal the Daynes are to the Martells. They seem to be, but it's not all that clear. And even if they are, we don't know what they want because we don't truly know what Dorne wants and what their role has been in all of this. It is possible the Daynes were more sympathetic to the grand alliance than the Martells were, causing a bit of a rift when the Martells went their own way. Though they might have kept their reservations secret.

9. The big question for me, really is why was Robert in the Vale? He was Lord in his own right, so why did he decide to go there? Otherwise his actions seem clear. He was Lord and free to choose his own bride. He chose Lyanna, she snubbed him, he refused to see it that way.

[Hippocras]

I do not think RT had a motive to set up Brandon Stark.

Lol. That's very true judging by the amount of writing I did re ToJ. However, I do not think RT set Brandon up. First of all, in order to set someone up, you have to know him. I don't see much evidence of Brandon and RT knowing each other well. We know they met at HT, but there is no recollection of their interactions. So, what did LF say? "Know what the man wants and then you will move him (as a figure in the GoT)". So, who did know him? Certainly, Hoster Tully and Jon Arryn. They are the ones who needed an excuse to start the war. So, when the message of Lyanna's disappearance reached Riverrun, Hoster may have had it blown up out of all proportions and sent a messenger to Brandon with a new interpretation.

I think you are missing the more obvious candidate here:

Littlefinger.

He was there recovering from his duel, all full of Brandon hate. It is his style to fabricate lies, not Hoster's or Jon's.

[Modesty Lannister]

Right now we are trying to figure out how far the plot went and how deep it was. Then once we've got the players involved identified then we can start figuring out motivations and how if all went wrong before we piece it all together.

I don't think that we are ignoring that, I think that we are trying to see how even with all the best intentions shit happens...

I've got some questions about some other people that might have been involved in the plot.

Lyn Corbray- he got his spurs for killing Lewyn on the trident, but he was in the enemy camp(uncouth Arryns) and then once Arryn kicked Gullstown and the uncouth Arryn's asses he turned his cloak . What if he was a spy/turn cloak for a white cloak. He was suppose (before Rickard and Brandon's death) gather forces for Aerys "so" Arryn could put them down in Rheagar's name.

Arryn' s motivation for this it gets Corbray a deed worthy of a white cloak(he was working for the new king) and in the process he wipes out a bunch of rival's for his seat in a more sophisticated and smoother Rains of Castermere. Which he can place his heir to the Vale currently while replacing his own son by Lysa on the seat of Arryn.

The Queen, what if she was the one to suggest to Cersi to get her brother to join the white.

Uses some cutpurse to rid the guard of the old lion so that Jamie can join. Then uses Ashara Dayne to talk to Arthur about taking Jamie under his wing. Then when the spot opens up Ashara can suggest to her brother whom just spent a bunch of time with Jamie has seen that he's got the skill. The bond between Squire and Knight is a close one. Arthur may have known that his sister was working him but he could see the good sense in having fresh blood beholden to Rheagar and not Aerys would be important.

Then there is Hosteen's reaction it was the one you would expect but what if it was a mummer's farce. Instead of Rheagar using Brandon, he walked into the dragon's mouth willingly to give the North the pretext for raising their banners. Then his father went to King's landing, yet many have said that his reaction was too, calm and he didn't raise the banners, but his younger son and the lord of the Stormlords are safe in the Vale poised and waiting but waiting for what?

This Rickard when south with 200 men, a token force from the North, Vale and Trident. The Lords of said regions and the Stormlords are also are ready close at hand ready to come to the capital to call a Grand Council. But really to take the city from the inside.

Brandon tells the Dragon to come out and die. What if the plan was to get Aerys to arrest him, while Ly and Rheagar were in the south mustering lords and ladies of the southern realm to displace his father.

Maybe the plan was for the 200 allow themselves to be arrest and wait for Rheagar to race to the city to Rescue his wife/ children and his betrothed's father and brother. To save them from the evil King that would have done something crazy to them.

Rheagar get the realm in a bloodless coup, gets a wife that can produce the 3 dragon head, has an heir that was the prince. The queen is free of her loving husband and the king is free of the blades that torment him. Everyone's happy even Elia as Aegon comes first in the sucession for the throne and she set her husband free to be loved. She did love him and would have wanted him happy even if it wasn't with her. Or she's dying anyway and she got the peace of mind her family is safe and Rheagar won't be alone.

Only the Maester were playing their own game and they screwed everything up.

You may be on to something, but still many loopholes to jump a host through. :-)

[Modesty Lannister]

I think you are missing the more obvious candidate here:

Littlefinger.

He was there recovering from his duel, all full of Brandon hate. It is his style to fabricate lies, not Hoster's or Jon's.

LF in my post is Littlefinger. You must have misread it or didn't read it all the way.

[Hippocras]

Lyn Corbray - I definitely see him as not quite a true ally of the Arryns. This is actually a key piece of an earlier theory I posted. It was supposedly him who killed Lewyn, but if he was still loyal to the Targaryens at the time, he may have only pretended to kill Lewyn.

The other key fact about the Corbrays of course is that it is them who brought Baelish from Braavos, and were the overlords of House Baelish.

Why do you think Lyn wanted a white cloak? Don't know where that comes from.

[Hippocras]

LF in my post is Littlefinger. You must have misread it or didn't read it all the way.

ok sorry

[Hippocras]

Queen Rhaella wanted the same things as Rhaegar IMO. They were close.

I really don't think it was anyone's idea but Cersei's to have Jamie join the KG. She said so herself, and we know why: he was her lover, her other half, her fighting half and she wanted him by her side. So noone suggested it to Cersei.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

2. Aemon was already at the Wall when Rhaegar was born BTW, so not sure how they could have been close. He went at the same time Bloodraven went.

I accept the theory that Rhaegar was possibly concerned by the level of alliance-building via marriage of the high Lords. However because the plot need not be interpreted as anything more than ensuring the Kingdoms continued to have common cause, Rhaegar's concern was likely not all that extreme. He was likely acting with caution rather than genuine fear of what was taking place. He might even have encouraged it, if you take into account the rest of my points below. The big wildcard, of course, is what he interpreted from the prophesies. However as those tend to be quite vague, I will assume the prophesies simply made it clear that the Long Night was coming, the Kingdoms would spiral into a mad cycle of vengeance and destruction, and that to combat this, three dragon heads were needed and a PtwP who may or may not be one of the dragon heads as well.

Something about the prophesies indicated that his marriage to Elia was either not right or not enough to produce these "heads of the dragon". This, combined with the slightly worrying grand alliances was the inspiration for Harrenhal. At Harrenhal, Rhaegar held some kind of secret negotiations, and also selected his new intended bride. However the way he proceeded after Harrenhal, frankly, suggests to me that the abduction might have been Lyanna's idea. It is straight out of Northern heritage and culture to "steal" a bride. It must have been obvious that this would enrage Robert Baratheon and Lyanna's father. But I think they did not count on Brandon's actions. That is where something (or someone) went wrong.

9. The big question for me, really is why was Robert in the Vale? He was Lord in his own right, so why did he decide to go there? Otherwise his actions seem clear. He was Lord and free to choose his own bride. He chose Lyanna, she snubbed him, he refused to see it that way.

2. (bolded parts) Actually we have no indication that the marriage to Elia contradicted or interfered with the prophecy. The fact that the maester(s) said she couldn't have any more children means Rhaegar had to find another girl so that he could father a third head to the dragon. We don't know that "the dragon has three heads" is part of the prophecy of TPtwP. Could have just been Rhaegar's thing of trying to recreate Aegon I and his wives. Given the naming of his first two children that would make sense.

I totally disagree that the abduction might have been Lyanna's idea just because there is one Northern tale about a Stark daughter being stolen. Rhaegar would have known the story of Bael, he probably played songs about it. And Bael's Stark girl stayed at Winterfell the whole time. I'm of the opinion that she did not go willingly with Rhaegar. The only way that works for me is if her father had approved it, and if he did I don't see Lyanna as having been the mastermind.

9. Fostering is a common custom and the arrangement that he would go to the Eyrie was likely made well before his parents died. He was most likely honoring their wishes. Or the decision was made by whoever was made Lord Protector of the Stormlands until Robert came of age. If he was already of age at the time of their deaths, he'd likely been at the Eyrie for some time already. Fostering usually starts pretty young.

[Modesty Lannister]

I don't know if you were addressing me specifically, but I thought we should all make our comments and then compare notes. I'll just highlight bits that I disagree with.

1. He refused Cersei for Rhaegar very shortly before Duskendale, deliberately to humiliate Tywin.

1. Since we disagree on the premise that Joanna and Aerys are lovers, we cannot agree much on Aerys' motives for treating Tywin the way he did. Tywin was an excellent hand and no matter how powerful at that time, he posed no threat to Aerys. So, in my book he rejected Cersei because she was Rhaegar's half-sister and Aerys himself resented being married to his sister. That is in my book a true personal motive. Spite is not a good motive for kings and not very convincing in my book.

2. Aemon was already at the Wall when Rhaegar was born BTW, so not sure how they could have been close. He went at the same time Bloodraven went.

However the way he proceeded after Harrenhal, frankly, suggests to me that the abduction might have been Lyanna's idea. It is straight out of Northern heritage and culture to "steal" a bride. It must have been obvious that this would enrage Robert Baratheon and Lyanna's father. But I think they did not count on Brandon's actions. That is where something (or someone) went wrong.

2. Aemon and Rhaegar corresponded. That's what we learn from Aemon.

I agree that is the trickiest bit and I still have no logical explanation for what happened. It seems totally out of Rhaegar's character and despite her "wolf blood", it seems out of character for Lyanna. Also, there is absolutely no motive for RT to do this. If he arranged the HT to calm the situation down, why would he go on an wreck it? I think we should concentrate on this issue alone on a separate thread.

3. Ned's love and respect for Jon Arryn is very obvious IMO. He was a good Hand and the Kingdoms had peace from the Rebellion until he died. Even if Ned doesn't share many specific thoughts, the general accounts given of Jon Arryn pretty much agree: he was honourable. Jon's trip to Dorne to deliver Lewyn's bones and make peace with them was his initiative. There are clues scattered throughout the books that he was Ned's role model. I don't know why you think this is a "mistake" in other words. There is nothing in the books to make us believe otherwise.

Jon Arryn left the realm in heavy debt. We know that from Ned Stark after he becomes Hand. I did not find any textual evidence of Jon Arryn's honor. Not a single quote. There is a quote by Catelyn saying to Ned - I know you loved him like a father, but that's it. As for Dorne, of course he had to go down there to try to smooth things over after that disgusting and criminal slaughter of children. However, he did not succeed much, because Dorne remained totally cut off from the rest of the realm during Robert's reign. Totally autonomous and with no official communication. The communication is restored when Tyrion sends Marcella to Dorne as a hostage (in Cersei's words).

4. if they are relevant, surely Bran's vision is at least as relevant and therefore likely connected? What else would be the point of telling us Bran's vision of a woman who wanted a son to avenge her? I think it makes perfect sense to connect the two hints GRRM has left us here, though it is, of course, conjecture.

4. I'd like to connect them at this stage, but I cannot. If you can, it would be of great value, because we'd have a motive. Rickard's actions are the proof of his "southern ambition". The marriage alliances he agreed to and the fostering of Ned. Starks were mentioned to have been related with every house in the north, which GRRM put there to tell us that they usually married northern houses, not the ones in other kingdoms with the exception of the Vale. That's why I think Jon Arryn is the mastermind of the whole alliance, because he represented the link between Hoster and Rickard. And we agree maesters have their own agenda.

5. Why does a Redwyne alliance mean hostility to Targaryens? It means nothing of the sort IMO. The Redwynes were loyal to the Targaryens, so if anything it was the opposite. In my opinion you are reading way too much into the absence of Targaryen marriages. If they wanted to make an ally of Tywin, they would not go against him on the one thing he wanted most - the Cersei+Rhaegar match, and the Lysa+Jamie match clearly indicates they wanted Tywin as an ally.

5. Redwynes are the second most powerful house in the Reach. They have their fleet. By getting them on your side, you get the fleet, which can bring down the whole Reach to it knees if Tyrells continue to side with Aerys. Also, we know from the example of Raynes, Boltons and, as you mentioned, Daynes, that second most powerful houses wait for an opportunity to become the first most powerful house at all times. Tywin wanted to make Cersei queen. The rebels gave them that. Aerys didn't.

7. This is why they were willing to go against Tywin to have Elia marry Rhaegar when none of the others proposed daughters as brides for Rhaegar.

7. Don't forget Martells were the first to propose matches between Cersei/Oberyn and Jaime/Elia and were rejected by Tywin.

9. The big question for me, really is why was Robert in the Vale? He was Lord in his own right, so why did he decide to go there?

Robert was a boy of 10 when he came to the Vale. The same age as Ned. I do not think he had any say in this. What I would explore here are relations between Arryn and Penrose and between maesters of the Eyrie and Storm's End. That may give the answer how. Why? Because Jon Arryn wanted to secure a legitimate heir to the Targaryan dynasty on his side. No one could argue against Robert's legitimacy when Targs were killed off.

[Modesty Lannister]

Queen Rhaella wanted the same things as Rhaegar IMO. They were close.

I really don't think it was anyone's idea but Cersei's to have Jamie join the KG. She said so herself, and we know why: he was her lover, her other half, her fighting half and she wanted him by her side. So noone suggested it to Cersei.

I totally agree with that as I stated in my previous posts. We should explore Rhaella more.

[Hippocras]

2. (bolded parts) Actually we have no indication that the marriage to Elia contradicted or interfered with the prophecy. The fact that the maester(s) said she couldn't have any more children means Rhaegar had to find another girl so that he could father a third head to the dragon. We don't know that "the dragon has three heads" is part of the prophecy of TPtwP. Could have just been Rhaegar's thing of trying to recreate Aegon I and his wives. Given the naming of his first two children that would make sense.

I totally disagree that the abduction might have been Lyanna's idea just because there is one Northern tale about a Stark daughter being stolen. Rhaegar would have known the story of Bael, he probably played songs about it. And Bael's Stark girl stayed at Winterfell the whole time. I'm of the opinion that she did not go willingly with Rhaegar. The only way that works for me is if her father had approved it, and if he did I don't see Lyanna as having been the mastermind.

9. Fostering is a common custom and the arrangement that he would go to the Eyrie was likely made well before his parents died. He was most likely honoring their wishes. Or the decision was made by whoever was made Lord Protector of the Stormlands until Robert came of age. If he was already of age at the time of their deaths, he'd likely been at the Eyrie for some time already. Fostering usually starts pretty young.

2. Yes, that's what I meant by "not enough", sorry if that wasn'c clear.

It is not just the Bael the Bard story - it is what we now know of the wildlings, who have some strong links to Northern culture in spite of the Wall. Bu it is not so important a point. It just seems like a really weird decision for Rhaegar, and I am NOT of the opinion it was against Lyanna's wishes. The book hints say otherwise. She didn't want to marry Robert and did want to go with Rhaegar.

9. I know warding is normal, my question is simply why the Vale? Why was he sent to Jon, specifically?

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Some poster have said that we should judge Rhaegar's action based on his end goal? Should we ignore the catastrophic rebellion (that was maybe already in process but covert and would have been possibly bloodless) was expedited and made necessarily bloody? Should we call Rhaegar a good character just becoz his actions supposedly resulted in ptwp ignoring all bloodbath in between?

If all of humanity is saved by the child born of this, then yes we should ignore the rest. Which do you prefer, short term peace and then total annihilation, or short term war and the prevention of total annihilation?

Rhaegar could be called a good character because he seemed to be a really good guy who caused a lot of problems. Conflict and layers make for good characters. However, as he's only appeared in the story in hindsight, I'm reluctant to call him a character at all.

Besides, nobody forced Brandon to go commit treason. If he'd kept his big mouth shut, Aerys wouldn't have been able to call both him and his father back to KL to address the charges. No summons, no execution. No execution, no war.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

2. Yes, that's what I meant by "not enough", sorry if that wasn'c clear.

It is not just the Bael the Bard story - it is what we now know of the wildlings, who have some strong links to Northern culture in spite of the Wall. Bu it is not so important a point. It just seems like a really weird decision for Rhaegar, and I am NOT of the opinion it was against Lyanna's wishes. The book hints say otherwise. She didn't want to marry Robert and did want to go with Rhaegar.

9. I know warding is normal, my question is simply why the Vale? Why was he sent to Jon, specifically?

The books do not hint she didn't want to marry Robert or that she did want to go with Rhaegar. Those are our interpretations. By the way I think she did want to go with Rhaegar, just that she didn't want to do it in a manner that could ruin her reputation and cause inordinate amounts of pain to others. Go with Rhaegar, yes. Go with him that way and at that time? No.

9. One of the great mysteries. We may never know. Perhaps Steffon and Jon had been fostered together when they were young and there was no one else Steffon trusted with his heir. Or maybe they were old drinking buddies.

[Modesty Lannister]

2. The fact that the maester(s) said she couldn't have any more children means Rhaegar had to find another girl so that he could father a third head to the dragon.

Rhaegar would have known the story of Bael, he probably played songs about it.

9. Fostering is a common custom and the arrangement that he would go to the Eyrie was likely made well before his parents died. He was most likely honoring their wishes.

2. This is key. Maesters said Elia could have no children. But, how true was that? There was no way for anyone else to verify that, because no one else deals with medicine. So, imho, this is the moment when Rhaegar was set up for his fall by the maesters.

RT reffered to the story of Beal the Bard when he crowned Lyanna with blue roses. He was an expert on music and lore. I already explained that his gesture at HT had a double carrot/stick approach - carrot: don't rebel and Lyanna becomes queen; stick: rebel and I'll be a new Beal. So, it was RT who took Lyanna imho. But, that would mean he knew, beyond any doubt that rebellion was already taking place and it wasn't. So, I believe there were a lot of deliberate miscommunications going to and fro masterminded by the maesters who knew plans of both sides.

9. We do not know that. It is not mentioned. Jon Arryn would be the lord protector since Robert was fostered by him and he was the lord of Stormlands. The key here is who arranged this and we don't know.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

LF in my post is Littlefinger. You must have misread it or didn't read it all the way.

I don't think Brandon was at Riverrun at the time. Hoster was annoyed that he'd gone to King's Landing when he should have been there marrying Catelyn.

And why would Brandon listen to Littlefinger, or even be anywhere near him? This is the puny kid who thought he could take Brandon's fiance. From what we know of Brandon he doesn't seem like the type to go check on the guy he just beat.

Lysa is a better option. She could have been doing LF's dirty work even back then. He comes up with the plan. She goes for it, thinking to get back at the man who hurt her beloved Petyr.

[Hippocras]

The books do not hint she didn't want to marry Robert or that she did want to go with Rhaegar. Those are our interpretations. By the way I think she did want to go with Rhaegar, just that she didn't want to do it in a manner that could ruin her reputation and cause inordinate amounts of pain to others. Go with Rhaegar, yes. Go with him that way and at that time? No.

9. One of the great mysteries. We may never know. Perhaps Steffon and Jon had been fostered together when they were young and there was no one else Steffon trusted with his heir. Or maybe they were old drinking buddies.

Lyanna told Ned that Robert would never change, and would never stick to one bed. She really didn't seem keen.

As for the rest, we will probably never know, but my interpretation of her personality is that she was up for the adventure. Probably when they met, secretly when he went to look for the mystery knight at Harrenhal he told her something about the prophesies, and why he would choose her.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Lyanna told Ned that Robert would never change, and would never stick to one bed. She really didn't seem keen.

I know that. But she began it with "Love is sweet, dearest Ned..." Rather implies she maybe did love Robert and just knew he wasn't likely to change. I figure she had mixed feelings, and then when Rhaegar went all gallant admirer it totally turned her head. Still she wouldn't have wanted to hurt Robert by running off with his cousin out of the blue.

[Hippocras]

I don't think Brandon was at Riverrun at the time. Hoster was annoyed that he'd gone to King's Landing when he should have been there marrying Catelyn.

And why would Brandon listen to Littlefinger, or even be anywhere near him? This is the puny kid who thought he could take Brandon's fiance. From what we know of Brandon he doesn't seem like the type to go check on the guy he just beat.

Lysa is a better option. She could have been doing LF's dirty work even back then. He comes up with the plan. She goes for it, thinking to get back at the man who hurt her beloved Petyr.

Lysa is an interesting idea, yes.

[Hippocras]

I know that. But she began it with "Love is sweet, dearest Ned..." Rather implies she maybe did love Robert and just knew he wasn't likely to change. I figure she had mixed feelings, and then when Rhaegar went all gallant admirer it totally turned her head. Still she wouldn't have wanted to hurt Robert by running off with his cousin out of the blue.

I always saw it more as she knew Robert loved her.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

I always saw it more as she knew Robert loved her.

Also possible. And there's a third option that it's just something she heard at court and she's trying to sound knowledgeable and sophisticated. ETA: maybe she picked it up from Elia.