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Skinchanging Sweetrobin

Oberyn's Sellsword Company was the Brave Companions

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Here's the thing, though. If Oberyn was willing to die to kill the Mountain and orphan his children, it better be for a good reason. Oberyn had all sorts of opportunities to do this over the course of 17 years. Why then and there? Why not hire a Faceless Man or use Widow's Blood or the Strangler or a million ways to kill someone?

The killing of the Mountain must be worth dying for (or the extreme risk of dying)

Once killing the Mountain becomes important, the magic poison and the confession become important. And once the magic poison and the confession become important. Qyburn's creation of UnGregor and Qyburn's handling of the skull become important.

And once you link in Qyburn, the Brave Companions follow pretty easily.

That would suggest that Oberyn wanted/planned an UnGregor...

Oberyn could not have confronted Gregor in those 17 years, because Gregor would never confess. He needed to be "tickled", but had Oberyn done something like that in theose 17 previous years, it would be murder, and Gregor would still have not confessed.

As to his good reason: he had an oppertunity, he had a good chance of survival, and it was a legit way one killing one, and getting a public confession that could implicate the other. Oberyn had not expected to die, keep that in mind.

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Here's the thing, though. If Oberyn was willing to die to kill the Mountain and orphan his children, it better be for a good reason. Oberyn had all sorts of opportunities to do this over the course of 17 years. Why then and there? Why not hire a Faceless Man or use Widow's Blood or the Strangler or a million ways to kill someone?

The killing of the Mountain must be worth dying for (or the extreme risk of dying)

As Rhaenys said, I don't think Oberyn thought he would die. Between justice and vengeance and poison, he most assuredly thought quite the opposite. And he believed he was right, so why take the easy way out, hire someone else, and rob himself of the pleasure?

Further, let's note that none of Oberyn's children's mothers were "important" enough for him to marry, not to mention the fact that his bastards are basically grown, having been raised most of their lives without Oberyn around (seeing as he was always on some adventure or other).

They love him nonetheless though, and - instead of what you propose - the story on the surface is that Oberyn dies trying to avenge his sister's death by staging an opportune fight with her murderer. This later sets up the SS avenging their father's death at the hands of the Mountain, and even (a little further down the road) the possibility of Nym not only exposing SRS's identity, but attempting to murder him out of a sense of vengeance not unlike Oberyn's.

Once killing the Mountain becomes important, the magic poison and the confession become important.

Killing the Mountain and getting the confession are important because they are elements of the plot established by Gregor murdering Elia, and Oberyn wanting not only closure, but justice and vengeance.

And the poison is foreshadowed prior to the TBC to establish Oberyn's use of the poison during it, leading the casual reader to believe that Gregor would most assuredly die, even after the TBC was over.

And once the magic poison and the confession become important. Qyburn's creation of UnGregor and Qyburn's handling of the skull become important.

Qyburn's creation of SRS is foreshadowed by his dabbling in the dark arts, and is not inarguably or innately connected to Oberyn's use of poison.

This, of course, would only be important if the BC were the sellsword company started by Oberyn, and Qyburn's loyalty to the Martells outshined a more basic need to simply remain in power as MoW - a position granted to him by the Lannisters.

And once you link in Qyburn, the Brave Companions follow pretty easily.

As mentioned before, Oberyn's sellsword company is mentioned once in the book, and it's from a Lannister POV, meaning the Lannisters likely know not only that Oberyn formed a sellsword company, but they either also know its name, or know about it's disbanding.

Meanwhile, the app says that Oberyn formed a sellsword company "for a time," further implying its disbanding/insignificance to the plot.

Again, I've really enjoyed reading this theory and entertaining its plausibility. But after continued thought I just don't believe that most (or any) of the elements in the OP are in play.

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It means the Martells knew that war was coming to the kingdoms.

Does it not?

Well, everyone knew the War of the Five Kings was coming, but I'm saying it looked like Oberyn knew Robert's Rebellion was coming.

As Rhaenys said, I don't think Oberyn thought he would die. Between justice and vengeance and poison, he most assuredly thought quite the opposite. And he believed he was right, so why take the easy way out, hire someone else, and rob himself of the pleasure?

Further, let's note that none of Oberyn's children's mothers were "important" enough for him to marry, not to mention the fact that his bastards are basically grown, having been raised most of their lives without Oberyn around (seeing as he was always on some adventure or other).

Meanwhile, the app says that Oberyn formed a sellsword company "for a time," further implying its disbanding/insignificance to the plot.

Keep in mind, Oberyn poisoned Tywin without a confession and was fine with that. Why would he need a confession and a fight with the Mountain? He even cast a spell on the poison to make it act slowly. He purposely put the odds against himself. Why? To give the Mountain a few days of pain? That was worth risking one's life for?

Oberyn knew there was a good chance he would die - that's why he poisoned the spear, right? To ensure he got the Mountain either way? If he was sure he would kill the Mountain, there would be no poison. So, why the fight? Why the risk when he didn't need to?

After all, he was orphaning 4 small children and a paramour who was devastated by Oberyn's death.

And the app's language is a bit odd. How does one "form" something "for a time?" You can form and lead for a time.

It is interesting if Tywin knew that the BC were formed by Oberyn 17 years ago, if he would care. 17 years is a long time. They are a sellsword company who are supposed to be loyal to money and they are being used in the Riverlands. Would Tywin have passed them up if they were cheap and in Westeros? I don't know.

That would suggest that Oberyn wanted/planned an UnGregor...

Oberyn could not have confronted Gregor in those 17 years, because Gregor would never confess. He needed to be "tickled", but had Oberyn done something like that in theose 17 previous years, it would be murder, and Gregor would still have not confessed.

As to his good reason: he had an oppertunity, he had a good chance of survival, and it was a legit way one killing one, and getting a public confession that could implicate the other. Oberyn had not expected to die, keep that in mind.

I am suggesting that Oberyn planned UnGregor. Oberyn's magic poison led to an undying Gregor. Yet, Oberyn confession led to a demand that Gregor die. He created the dichotomy. And UnGregor proves Cersei a liar.

I'm still not getting your explanation on the timing. Oberyn had 17 years to poison Tywin and fight the Mountain in trial. Why then and there?

And you're suggesting that he wanted a confession to implicate Tywin? Why? Tywin was already poisoned and dying. What's the point of the confessions?

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Well, everyone knew the War of the Five Kings was coming, but I'm saying it looked like Oberyn knew Robert's Rebellion was coming.

The War of the 5 Kings was so predictable? Because no one could have known that Robb and Stannis wouldn't form an allegiance. No one could have known that Renly would name himself king. No one could know that Balon would declare himself to be king and independent.

The War of the 5 Kings was a conflict that had been in the making for a time, with the Lannisters, Jon Arryns death, Ned's investigation, the flights of Stannis and Renly, and Ned's imprisonment which lead to Robb marching an army south. Robert's Rebellion happened more suddenly, because a prince disappeared with a girl, while that prince was married and the girl engaged, and an angry brother clashed with a mad king. Where Robert's Rebellion escalated (so from kidnapping to Jon Arryn calling the banners) within a few short months, the War of the Five Kings had been in the making for over a year.

There was nothing to predict Robert's Rebellion. Rhaegar showing interest in Lyanna at Harrenhal? No, because Lyanna became engaged (most likely) only after that incident, and Elia (certainly) became pregnant after Harrenhal.

Keep in mind, Oberyn poisoned Tywin without a confession and was fine with that. Why would he need a confession and a fight with the Mountain? He even cast a spell on the poison to make it act slowly. He purposely put the odds against himself. Why? To give the Mountain a few days of pain? That was worth risking one's life for?

Oberyn's poison ensured that Gregor would die, no matter what else happened. And Gregor dying in an undescribing pain, that's justice, in Oberyn's eyes.

The Mountains confession would serve one thing: it would be public, and there would be no more doubts left in anyone's minds about his involvement. Because don't forget, Oberyn's plan was to get Gregor to tell him who gave the order.

That the poison was thickened does not mean Oberyn put the odds against himself. We don't know how fast the poison usually works. It might be that perhaps it usually takes a few days, where it now took a few weeks.

Oberyn knew there was a good chance he would die - that's why he poisoned the spear, right? To ensure he got the Mountain either way? If he was sure he would kill the Mountain, there would be no poison. So, why the fight? Why the risk when he didn't need to?

After all, he was orphaning 4 small children and a paramour who was devastated by Oberyn's death.

The fight was to ensure Gregor gave his confession: the confession of "I killed Aegon, I killed Elia" and the confession of "It was Lord Tywin who gave me the order to kill them both". That's why the fight was necessary.

The poison was the fall back plan. If everything else failed, and Oberyn died, he would die knowing that Gregor would not be that far behind him.

There will always be people saddened because of the death of a person. Should Robb not have gone to war because he could have died and thus sadden Catelyn, Sansa, Arya, Bran and Rickon?

Should Ned have remained at Riverrun after marrying Catelyn because otherwise she might become sad that she became a widow?

When you're going to do something that could end with you dying, you ride forth ensuring that those you leave behind will not go wanting. And Oberyn did just that. Ellaria enjoys a place at court in Sunspear, and at the Water Gardens if she whishes. Her four children with Oberyn will be raised under Doran's eye.

And the app's language is a bit odd. How does one "form" something "for a time?" You can form and lead for a time.

Simple. You form something, it exists for a while, and than it falls apart.

I am suggesting that Oberyn planned UnGregor. Oberyn's magic poison led to an undying Gregor. Yet, Oberyn confession led to a demand that Gregor die. He created the dichotomy. And UnGregor proves Cersei a liar.

So you say that Oberyn wanted the Mountain dead, killed the Mountain, while knowing that the Mountain would be brought back from the dead, effectively erasing that what Oberyn died for.

How would UnGregor prove Cersei a liar? Cersei send Gregor's head to Dorne, as promised. Done, because UnGregor seems to have no head anymore. Cersei told Dorne that Gregor died. Done, because Gregor truly did die.

I'm still not getting your explanation on the timing. Oberyn had 17 years to poison Tywin and fight the Mountain in trial. Why then and there?

And you're suggesting that he wanted a confession to implicate Tywin? Why? Tywin was already poisoned and dying. What's the point of the confessions?

Oberyn had 17 years, that's true. But In those 17 years, there was no chance. If Oberyn went to Casterly Rock and Tywin dropped dead soon after, Oberyn would be suspect number 1.

Oberyn could not walk up to the Mountain and kill him, because that would be murder, and Oberyn would be trialed and killed.

So there was no way that Oberyn could have legally done what he did. But killing the Mountain in trial by combat is legal. And if the Mountain were to confess before his death that it had been Tywin who had arranged for the deaths of Elia and Aegon by brutal hands, that would give a giantic list of potential suspects, as there are still many in KL who hate Tywin for the Sack.

So the point of the confessions: making killing Tywin legal, and, if that fails, getting lots of more suspects added to the list.

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The War of the 5 Kings was so predictable? Because no one could have known that Robb and Stannis wouldn't form an allegiance. No one could have known that Renly would name himself king. No one could know that Balon would declare himself to be king and independent.

You and I agree that everyone (except the slow Starks) knew conflict in general was coming. But what about the details? Well, the war was probably expected to be Lannister vs. the Stark/Tully/Baratheon/Arryn alliance. The fall out between the Baratheon brothers and the Tully sisters would be hard to predict, but generally the war can be expected to take place in the Riverlands, the Stormlands or the Crownlands. In these areas the Faith of the Seven rules. And we can predict that Amory Lorch and Jamie were going to be off in the battlefield.

So, really, two outcomes could come. Either the Lannisters lose and revenge isn't needed against them or the Lannisters win. In the event of Lannister victory, the Brave Companion's sacrilege, the killing of Amory Lorch and maiming of Jamie set up the revenge against them.

There was nothing to predict Robert's Rebellion. Rhaegar showing interest in Lyanna at Harrenhal? No, because Lyanna became engaged (most likely) only after that incident, and Elia (certainly) became pregnant after Harrenhal.

Southron Ambitions was there to predict.

Oberyn's poison ensured that Gregor would die, no matter what else happened. And Gregor dying in an undescribing pain, that's justice, in Oberyn's eyes.

The Mountains confession would serve one thing: it would be public, and there would be no more doubts left in anyone's minds about his involvement. Because don't forget, Oberyn's plan was to get Gregor to tell him who gave the order.

That the poison was thickened does not mean Oberyn put the odds against himself. We don't know how fast the poison usually works. It might be that perhaps it usually takes a few days, where it now took a few weeks.

Well, Qyburn says the poison was supposed to work instantaneously, but the magic slowed it.

And, although Oberyn told Tyrion he would get a confession from the Mountain about Tywin's orders, there was not a single effort during the fight for that. He made the confession all about the Mountain.

And how does the confession serve the Martells? Who cares if people know for sure the Mountain did it? Doesn't that work against Oberyn? Tywin can make the Mountain the patsy. In fact, that's what Tywin did. The confession seems only relevant to the Qyburn's skull scheme.

So you say that Oberyn wanted the Mountain dead, killed the Mountain, while knowing that the Mountain would be brought back from the dead, effectively erasing that what Oberyn died for.

How would UnGregor prove Cersei a liar? Cersei send Gregor's head to Dorne, as promised. Done, because UnGregor seems to have no head anymore. Cersei told Dorne that Gregor died. Done, because Gregor truly did die.

Qyburn removed the flesh creating doubt in the Sand Snakes' mind. So, not done.

The is a huge theme in AFfC and the Watcher in ADwD. If you remember, Cersei was receiving fake heads of Tyrion (a dwarf) and not trusting any of them as real. In fact, she even receives a beautifully presented one in an ebony box from a Tyroshi who calls it "valanqar".

In the the Watcher, Dorne receives a giant head in an ivory box. Inversion! For half the chapter, they discuss whether they should trust it. In the end, they decide that since there is only one 8-foot-tall guy around, if he shows up, Cersei is proven a liar.

So, everything is set up by Qyburn for UnGregor to prove Cersei a liar.

Oberyn had 17 years, that's true. But In those 17 years, there was no chance. If Oberyn went to Casterly Rock and Tywin dropped dead soon after, Oberyn would be suspect number 1.

That's the whole point. Oberyn would want to be suspect #1. That way he can fight the Mountian.

And that's exactly what he did in King's Landing. He poisoned Tywin expecting to fight the Mountain.

What he did, he could have done at any time.

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And, although Oberyn told Tyrion he would get a confession from the Mountain about Tywin's orders, there was not a single effort during the fight for that. He made the confession all about the Mountain.

And how does the confession serve the Martells? Who cares if people know for sure the Mountain did it? Doesn't that work against Oberyn? Tywin can make the Mountain the patsy. In fact, that's what Tywin did. The confession seems only relevant to the Qyburn's skull scheme.

To get Gregor to tell it was all Tywin who had ordered it, Oberyn will first need to get the Mountain to tell them all what it was that had been done. Until so far, there were only rumours about Gregor floating around (though most people seemed to take it as a fact already).

So the confession would definitly serve the Martells. People will not care that Gregor confesses he did it, they already believed it anyway, but Gregor first has to confess that before being able to confess that Tywin had ordered it.

Qyburn removed the flesh creating doubt in the Sand Snakes' mind. So, not done.

The is a huge theme in AFfC and the Watcher in ADwD. If you remember, Cersei was receiving fake heads of Tyrion (a dwarf) and not trusting any of them as real. In fact, she even receives a beautifully presented one in an ebony box from a Tyroshi who calls it "valanqar".

In the the Watcher, Dorne receives a giant head in an ivory box. Inversion! For half the chapter, they discuss whether they should trust it. In the end, they decide that since there is only one 8-foot-tall guy around, if he shows up, Cersei is proven a liar.

So, everything is set up by Qyburn for UnGregor to prove Cersei a liar.

The Sand Snakes are doubting about the identity of the skull. Not about whether or not Gregor died. They know he died, slowly and in a lot of pain. The pattern you name is one of opposites: Cersei receives many heads, recognizable, but none are the one she's looking for. Dorne receives a head, unrecognizable, but it's the one they had been wanting for years.

What would the motivation be to be able to name Cersei a liar? Did she kill Elia? No. Did she order anything of such kind? No. What possible motive could Oberyn have had to kill the man he wants dead, only to allow him to be brought back? That is effectively erasing the death.

That's the whole point. Oberyn would want to be suspect #1. That way he can fight the Mountian.

And that's exactly what he did in King's Landing. He poisoned Tywin expecting to fight the Mountain.

What he did, he could have done at any time.

Perhaps that was Oberyn's plan A. But now Joffrey died, Tyrion has demanded a trial by battle, and Oberyn get's a chance without having to wait around until Tywin dies. So the plan changes. He no longer has to be suspect #1 in order to fight the Mountain. He already get's to fight the Mountain.

Southron Ambitions was there to predict.

The Southron Ambitions came into play late. Lyanna was most likely only betrothed to Roberts in 281AC, after Harrenhal. Brandon's marriage to Catelyn was only announced in either very late 281AC or early 282AC. Ned had been fostered out many years ago, true, but people foster out their children all the time. And doing that to another High Lord after you've gotten to know him during the War of the Ninepenny Kings isn't all that strange.

So unless Obery could see the future, Rickards Southron Ambitions would have been very hard to predict long before. Especially since Oberyn was in Westeros in 281AC, and again in 284AC, leaving only little room for him to do things in... while the Southron Ambitions cards hadn't even been played yet, mostly.

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(snip)

Sweetrobin, I feel like Rhaenys, others and I have done a fair job of laying out the commonly accepted plot here – the “cliff notes” version of events and motives surrounding the Viper’s intentions and the Mountain’s role in it all. Most readers tend to pick up the plot elements we’ve mentioned and accept them at face value, more or less, and not only because it tells a great story, but because it makes the most sense that Oberyn would want to exact his revenge on Gregor at the conveniently timed/placed TBC in order to also be protected by the law in doing so, and for Gregor’s confession to be public. Fast-forward to the Martell cliffhanger between ADWD and TWOW, and accepting the plot as presented in the text means the SS are Oberyn’s vengeance in death, and not unwitting pawns in a plan they know nothing about.

Oberyn’s TBC “acceptance” speech to Tyrion in episode 4.07 neatly sums up his rationale as well.

And that’s what you’re up against here. At the end of the day, you have a really well researched theory (in that the research is outstanding, although the conclusions don’t naturally follow), and you’ve tasked yourself with disproving elements of the commonly accepted plot in order to perpetuate the imaginative and elaborate theory you’ve put forth – a theory that, although I enjoyed reading, I would bet money against, because its premise is so thinly supported by the text, IMO.

For most readers, believing your theory (or granting it as a possibility) would mean accepting that agents of the Martells are responsible for the rapes, murders and terror caused in the Riverlands, including the rape attempt on Brienne, and the murder of members of the Faith. It would also mean that Oberyn had no motive for entering the TBC except allowing the Mountain to kill him and have SRS reincarnated as a staunch (yet currently secretive) Martell supporter. On top of that, it would mean Doran is willfully withholding SRS’s identity and alliance from the SS, despite that Doran sent Nym to KL where – if she spots somebody that looks like Gregor – she’s going to want to kill her own purported servant and ally. In effect, your theory being true would mean a host of things that turn the commonly accepted plot on its head, and that you alone have figured out “Doran’s plot” some 14 years after the clues laid forth in ASOS became available.

Meanwhile, from where I sit, the Mountain/SRS remains an enemy to the Martells (because they will continue to view him as one upon learning that’s he still stands), and if anything’s beyond the TBC has been directly foreshadowed involving SRS, it’s a confrontation with Nym (e.g. Oberyn 2.0) which would only be trumped by the longer term foreshadowing of a rematch with the Hound, with UnGregor having been resurrected by the dark arts, and (Un)Sandor having been “reborn” through a newfound commitment to Faith.

Despite what I believe, though, I truly hope you enjoy the continued to defense of your theory.

For my part, I’ve entertained the notion, I’ve not been swayed, and I feel there’s nothing else I can tell you to help you understand how the commonly accepted plot (IMO) tells a better story than the one your theory implies.

Thanks for posting it, though! It’s been a while since I’ve read something this well put together!

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To get Gregor to tell it was all Tywin who had ordered it, Oberyn will first need to get the Mountain to tell them all what it was that had been done. Until so far, there were only rumours about Gregor floating around (though most people seemed to take it as a fact already).

So the confession would definitly serve the Martells. People will not care that Gregor confesses he did it, they already believed it anyway, but Gregor first has to confess that before being able to confess that Tywin had ordered it.

I understand that's what he told Tyrion he would do, but in the battle he doesn't do that. In fact, there is no mention of Tywin. Oberyn had a prepared chant and Tywin was not part of it. He seems to want the Mountain to repeat the chant and really wants him to say the name "Elia." If Oberyn was going to later get a confession about Tywin, there is no indication that he was going to execute that plan and if he was secretly going to do it, he was nowhere close to succeeding.

In fact, Oberyn's chant is weirdly inaccurate. It attempts to pin an extra murder on the Mountain. The Mountain killed Aegon, but Oberyn insists the Mountain killed "children." And Oberyn knows this is inaccurate since he calls Tyrion's story about Amory murdering Rhaenys "truth".

Read it again or listen to it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JU53dfWE8w

Oberyn didn't seem to want the exact truth confessed. And he put no observable effort into getting Tywin blamed.

So, I don't think this was about closure, or truth, or implicating Tywin.

Instead, it looks like Oberyn is consciously trying to put all blame on the Mountain.

The Sand Snakes are doubting about the identity of the skull. Not about whether or not Gregor died.

The text says otherwise:

"No one saw the Mountain die, and no one saw his head removed. That troubles me, I confess, but what could the bitch queen hope to accomplish by deceiving us?" (The Watcher, ADwD)

What would the motivation be to be able to name Cersei a liar?

To undo all Tywin holds dear.

Perhaps that was Oberyn's plan A. But now Joffrey died, Tyrion has demanded a trial by battle, and Oberyn get's a chance without having to wait around until Tywin dies. So the plan changes. He no longer has to be suspect #1 in order to fight the Mountain. He already get's to fight the Mountain.

Right, but Oberyn could have fought the Mountain even earlier by poisoning Tywin at any point in the past 17 years.

Why did Oberyn wait 17 years?

Keep in mind, in all the explanation about Oberyn coming to King's Landing. I have never heard a good explanation for this. Tywin could have hired someone to put Widow's Blood in Tywin and the Mountain's food a million times over the course of 17 years. Or he could have hired a Faceless Man. Or used Little Birds. But Oberyn (an impatient man) waited. Why?

My explanation is that he needed the other pieces of his plan in place. Namely, Jamie without a hand (so he couldn't be chosen for combat) and Qyburn heading to King's Landing under the trust of Lannisters (so UnGregor could be created).

The Southron Ambitions came into play late.

Did it? Eddard and Robert were fostered by Jon Arryn in 271. That three-way friendship proved more important than any of the marriages.

And if Lady Dustin is to be believed, the maesters have been planning it for a while. The maesters seemed to have wanted the Stark/Tully/Baratheon/Arryn alliance. Listen to maester Cressen in the ACoK prologue. He pushes Stannis towards an alliance with the Starks/Tullys and a marriage with the Arryns/Tullys.

However, the information about that time period is incredibly sparse. Still, Oberyn's actions pre-rebellion are pretty weird.

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For my part, I’ve entertained the notion, I’ve not been swayed, and I feel there’s nothing else I can tell you to help you understand how the commonly accepted plot (IMO) tells a better story than the one your theory implies.

Thanks for posting it, though! It’s been a while since I’ve read something this well put together!

No worries, I understand it's a bold proposition, but I prefer my theory over the "commonly accepted plot" that makes little sense. I would rather believe that the Brave Companions, Qyburn and Oberyn have darker secrets than:

1) The BC were just a bunch of crazy dudes that the story spent chapters and chapters following for no particular reason. They have no connection to greater plans or prophecies.

2) The collection of the BC's heads by the Tarlys, their presence in dreams and their heading to Oldtown is of no purpose.

3) Oberyn spontaneously came to KL after 17 years.

4) Oberyn studied magical poison just to give the Mountain a few days of pain and demanded a confession for no reason.

5) The foreshadowing of the imp's head in AFfC and Qyburn messing with the Mountain's skull is of no consequence

6) Jamie's maiming and Amory Lorch's death were simply random events.

7) The Martells coincidentally studied religion and the Sparrow movement just happened to come to power.

8) Despite also studying at the Citadel, studying dark magic, studying poison, traveling the Free Cities and having his daughter connected with Marwyn, Oberyn has no connection to Qyburn.

9) It's only a coincidence that every tragedy to happen to the Lannisters involved the Brave Companions and Qyburn

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I think it is possible that the Martells were either waiting for Dany and Viserys to grow up and be ready to play the game of thrones or they didn't want to break king Robert's peace by assassinating Tywin, Amory Lorch and the Mountain - perhaps a combination of both. It is probable that both Oberyn and Doran wanted "justice" and not merely vengeance.



Imagine, if you will, what would have happened if the Martells had had Tywins children assassinated during these 17 years!


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Oberyn has founded a company full of raper and (child)murderer?

Oberyn confirmed for the worst form of hypocrite

"You raped us. You murdered us. You killed our children...We will hear you say it." - Oberyn's countless victims to him in the afterlife

The guy was really a false snake ... if it's true

Yes, totally off.

As is the entirety of Part D, it's all explained in the text. Lorch and Hoat hated each other for awhile. Roose needed HH for strategic purposes. It makes sense why Hoat removed Jamie's hand and why they took HH. The North was strong at the time and the Mummers were banking on Stannis defeating the Lannisters, so they rolled the dice. All in all, it's a no.

The religion stuff is way off as well IMO.

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No worries, I understand it's a bold proposition, but I prefer my theory over the "commonly accepted plot" that makes little sense. I would rather believe that the Brave Companions, Qyburn and Oberyn have darker secrets than:

1) The BC were just a bunch of crazy dudes that the story spent chapters and chapters following for no particular reason. They have no connection to greater plans or prophecies.

They were just what Lorch and his men were, means to display Tywin's tactics and how he goes to war.

2) The collection of the BC's heads by the Tarlys, their presence in dreams and their heading to Oldtown is of no purpose.

The collection of heads is to show the payback for betrayal. They mentioned a couple of them going to Oldtown, big deal....had to go somewhere.

3) Oberyn spontaneously came to KL after 17 years.

Or he came instead of Doran to throw the Lannisters off after Doran was invited to join the small council...

4) Oberyn studied magical poison just to give the Mountain a few days of pain and demanded a confession for no reason.

Oberyn was using the like long before that scene. He demanded a confession to show the lie the Lannisters were putting out there. Oberyn's story lives on in the Sand Snakes.

5) The foreshadowing of the imp's head in AFfC and Qyburn messing with the Mountain's skull is of no consequence

Of course it is, Dorne is still in the mix

6) Jamie's maiming and Amory Lorch's death were simply random events.

Jamie's maiming caused the change in Jamie as a person, nowhere near random. Your story is random. Amory Lorch's story has to do with Arya, the rivalry with the mummers and the bear scene with Brienne/Jamie. The story Roose told of why Hoat maimed Jamie makes 1,000,000 x more sense than this theory.

7) The Martells coincidentally studied religion and the Sparrow movement just happened to come to power.

All the circumstances in Westeros caused this. Poverty, desecration of septs all over, incestuous royalty, too many bought sextons and a backlash, the comet, war....and so on and so forth. Really, the Martells???

8) Despite also studying at the Citadel, studying dark magic, studying poison, traveling the Free Cities and having his daughter connected with Marwyn, Oberyn has no connection to Qyburn.

So everyone who travels to the free cities hooks up now? Doesn't The maester at WF have his link for magic/dark arts?

9) It's only a coincidence that every tragedy to happen to the Lannisters involved the Brave Companions and Qyburn.

Like Joff's death? Oxcross? Cersei's walk of Shame and Kevean's murder?

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I understand that's what he told Tyrion he would do, but in the battle he doesn't do that. In fact, there is no mention of Tywin. Oberyn had a prepared chant and Tywin was not part of it. He seems to want the Mountain to repeat the chant and really wants him to say the name "Elia." If Oberyn was going to later get a confession about Tywin, there is no indication that he was going to execute that plan and if he was secretly going to do it, he was nowhere close to succeeding.

In fact, Oberyn's chant is weirdly inaccurate. It attempts to pin an extra murder on the Mountain. The Mountain killed Aegon, but Oberyn insists the Mountain killed "children." And Oberyn knows this is inaccurate since he calls Tyrion's story about Amory murdering Rhaenys "truth".

There is no mention of Tywin, because Obery hadn't gotten to that part yet. First, Gregor needed to admit he had done the deed. Only then, would Obery need Gregor to tell that Tywin had ordered it.

The text says otherwise:

"No one saw the Mountain die, and no one saw his head removed. That troubles me, I confess, but what could the bitch queen hope to accomplish by deceiving us?" (The Watcher, ADwD)

They say that it troubles them, but that there is no doubt:

The skull is large enough, no doubt,” said the prince. “And we know that Oberyn wounded Gregor grievously. Every report we have had since claims that Clegane died slowly, in great pain.”

“Just as Father intended,” said Tyene. “Sisters, truly, I know the poison Father used. If his spear so much as broke the Mountain’s skin, Clegane is dead, I do not care how big he was. Doubt your little sister if you like, but never doubt our sire.”

Obara bristled. “I never did and never shall.”

To undo all Tywin holds dear.

Tywin is already dead. Cersei is innocent of the crimes committed against Elia, Aegon and Rhaenys. Why punish Cersei for something she didn't do, when Tywin would not be around long enough to see it?

Right, but Oberyn could have fought the Mountain even earlier by poisoning Tywin at any point in the past 17 years.

Why did Oberyn wait 17 years?

But you've stated in your OP that Oberyn wanted to undo all that Tywin held dear... How does killing Tywin early on accomplish that?

So Oberyn waited patiently for an oppertunity.

Keep in mind, in all the explanation about Oberyn coming to King's Landing. I have never heard a good explanation for this. Tywin Oberyncould have hired someone to put Widow's Blood in Tywin and the Mountain's food a million times over the course of 17 years. Or he could have hired a Faceless Man. Or used Little Birds. But Oberyn (an impatient man) waited. Why?

My explanation is that he needed the other pieces of his plan in place. Namely, Jamie without a hand (so he couldn't be chosen for combat) and Qyburn heading to King's Landing under the trust of Lannisters (so UnGregor could be created).

I assume you meant Oberyn there :)

Oberyn could have hired someone -> who could have told Tywin in exchange for gold/land/power

Oberyn could have hired a FM -> Extremely expensive... bankrupting the Martells, and such a drop in gold is not easily explained to the crown, where the daughter is the Queen and the son is a KG knight.

Oberyn could have used Little Birds -> how? Varys cannot be linked to the Martells with a certainty. And obviously, it is known that Varys cannot be blindely trusted.

I ask again. Why would Oberyn want an UnGregor? Oberyn, who had expected to live... Oberyn, who wanted Gregor as dead as he could possibly get, in the most slow and painful way he could accomplish...

An UnGregor destroys all Oberyn fought for during the trial.

Did it? Eddard and Robert were fostered by Jon Arryn in 271. That three-way friendship proved more important than any of the marriages.

And if Lady Dustin is to be believed, the maesters have been planning it for a while. The maesters seemed to have wanted the Stark/Tully/Baratheon/Arryn alliance. Listen to maester Cressen in the ACoK prologue. He pushes Stannis towards an alliance with the Starks/Tullys and a marriage with the Arryns/Tullys.

However, the information about that time period is incredibly sparse. Still, Oberyn's actions pre-rebellion are pretty weird.

Ned was fostered around 271AC, yes,, but that is nothing strange. Especially not since the Great Lords met each other during the War of the Ninepenny Kings.. So this was absolutely not suspicious.

Cressen is thinking about the well being of Shireen, and about Stannis. Stannis, who wants to claim the throne, yet holds no power. With these big armies going around, a marriage allegiance is the best way to go.

Oberyn's pre-rebellion actions are not weird at all. A man who liked to travel. There have been more of those in the books.... ;)

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I think he definitely wanted the HS to rise so he could put Cersei on trial and force her to reveal UnGregor.

I think things get a little shakier for Doran after that. Can Tyene really control the HS? Can anyone control UnGregor? Can anyone control Qyburn?

Littlefinger once told Sansa that pieces don't always move how you want them to. I think Doran thinks he can move the pieces how he wants them. He has masterfully manipluated his daughter and son into doing his bidding. And he locks up the Sand Snakes and Arianne when they don't do his bidding. But, Doran plays a long game which leaves little room for improv. His arrogance and inability to adapt will be his downfall.

I see a bunch of weaknesses in the Doran Master Plan: the High Sparrow, possible Tyrell spying (glass candle, Brave Companion heads), the Brotherhood Without Banners, Jaime and Brienne, the Ironborn, Arianne's conscience and, of course, Littlefinger.

No way, are you serious??? Doran had the BC's rape, pillage, and murder septons thoughout the Riverlands so the Faith would rise up so that Cersei would have to reveal Ungregor.

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There is no mention of Tywin, because Obery hadn't gotten to that part yet. First, Gregor needed to admit he had done the deed. Only then, would Obery need Gregor to tell that Tywin had ordered it.

Well, I will say that If that were true, Oberyn was way off about his abilities. He wasn't anywhere close to getting a confession about Tywin. :)

They say that it troubles them, but that there is no doubt:

I think perhaps our disagreement here is that some Sand Snakes trust the skull and some Sand Snakes do not.

Tywin is already dead. Cersei is innocent of the crimes committed against Elia, Aegon and Rhaenys. Why punish Cersei for something she didn't do, when Tywin would not be around long enough to see it?

I think in the Martell's mind, they want to take away what Cersei doesn't deserve. So, they must take away her Queenship without killing her.

But you've stated in your OP that Oberyn wanted to undo all that Tywin held dear... How does killing Tywin early on accomplish that?

So Oberyn waited patiently for an oppertunity.

Well, we know Doran speaks in half-truths, but that's a really unsatifying answer and I would just be cherry-picking quotes and half-quotes to get the motivation.

But, "Dead man shitting" is such a brilliant theory (not mine, of course) and it implicates Oberyn. Why would Doran on the one hand say that he wanted Tywin to watch his world fall apart and on the other hand have Oberyn kill him?

I have a theory that reconciles the statement. It's creepy, but oddly, really fitting. And most people hear it and scoff.

I think Tywin is inside UnGregor.

Hear me out.

Clearly UnGregor is bigger than Gregor. And Qyburn has been collecting other people and disecting them as well. So, it's likely many of their extra body parts are in UnGregor as well. I don't think many people have a problem with believing that.

But Qyburn also had Tywin's body. Westeros is a world where souls are transfered to ravens and tree and all sorts of things. Hodor watches in horror as Bran controls his body. Is it that much of a stretch to put Tywin's soul in UnGregor to watch his world fall apart?

That's my crackpot on that.

I ask again. Why would Oberyn want an UnGregor? Oberyn, who had expected to live... Oberyn, who wanted Gregor as dead as he could possibly get, in the most slow and painful way he could accomplish...

An UnGregor destroys all Oberyn fought for during the trial.

Oberyn is very much a "heads I win, tails you lose" kind of guy.

UnGregor is that too. If UnGregor loses the trial, revenge. If UnGregor wins the trial, he's still revealed proving Cersei a liar. Thus, revenge.

And I'm sure Gregor's soul, if its in UnGregor, is in agony.

Ned was fostered around 271AC, yes,, but that is nothing strange. Especially not since the Great Lords met each other during the War of the Ninepenny Kings.. So this was absolutely not suspicious.

I'm just saying, 271 happens to be the year that Oberyn is in Oldtown hanging at whorehouses. We know Marwyn hangs at whorehouses in Oldtown too. And Marwyn is pretty vocal in bashing the grey sheep for their scheming. Oberyn may have been at a whorehouse in Oldtown and heard Marwyn bitch about the fostering which was probably maester Walys' idea.

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Clearly UnGregor is bigger than Gregor.

Why would you think that? Is there any textual reference for that?

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Why would you think that? Is there any textual reference for that?

UnGregor:

Eight feet tall or maybe taller, with legs as thick around as trees, he had a chest worthy of a plow horse and shoulders that would not disgrace an ox. (Cersei II, ADwD)

Gregor:

He was well over seven feet tall, closer to eight, with massive shoulders and arms thick as the trunks of small trees. (Eddard VII, AGoT)

So, UnGregor has gained a few inches in his transformation.

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I think in the Martell's mind, they want to take away what Cersei doesn't deserve. So, they must take away her Queenship without killing her.

And revealing Cersei to be a liar will do just that: it will get her killed.

Well, we know Doran speaks in half-truths, but that's a really unsatifying answer and I would just be cherry-picking quotes and half-quotes to get the motivation.

That's Varys, who speaks in half-truths, not Doran :)

But, "Dead man shitting" is such a brilliant theory (not mine, of course) and it implicates Oberyn. Why would Doran on the one hand say that he wanted Tywin to watch his world fall apart and on the other hand have Oberyn kill him?

I have a theory that reconciles the statement. It's creepy, but oddly, really fitting. And most people hear it and scoff.

I think Tywin is inside UnGregor.

Hear me out.

Clearly UnGregor is bigger than Gregor. And Qyburn has been collecting other people and disecting them as well. So, it's likely many of their extra body parts are in UnGregor as well. I don't think many people have a problem with believing that.

But Qyburn also had Tywin's body. Westeros is a world where souls are transfered to ravens and tree and all sorts of things. Hodor watches in horror as Bran controls his body. Is it that much of a stretch to put Tywin's soul in UnGregor to watch his world fall apart?

That's my crackpot on that.

Dead man shitting theory?

Why would Cersei allow Qyburn to use some part of Tywin (assuming she doesn't know what exactly he used)?

UnGregor is bigger than Gregor... Armor? UnGregor can hardly walk around without it.

The people who Qyburn used for his experiments: He would need practise, before risking messing up Gregor: there was only one shot to this, probably. Note how Qyburn uses women preferably. Women have a higher threshold to pain (due to childbirth etc.). I wouldn't say other people's body parts are attached to Gregor (how would that work, Gregor was so much bigger than others? And why would it be necessary?). Those people were just the test rats, and Gregor was the patient who received treatment only after the researcher saw how the rats he used were affected.

The soul leaves the body as soon as it dies. We see that with Orell, and with Varamyr as well. Qyburn did not receive Tywin's body until after he had been dead for a while.

So yeah, Tywin's soul in UnGregors body is quite a stretch, and not a likely one. Same goes for the additional body parts on UnGregor.

Oberyn is very much a "heads I win, tails you lose" kind of guy.

UnGregor is that too. If UnGregor loses the trial, revenge. If UnGregor wins the trial, he's still revealed proving Cersei a liar. Thus, revenge.

And I'm sure Gregor's soul, if its in UnGregor, is in agony.

I'm just saying, 271 happens to be the year that Oberyn is in Oldtown hanging at whorehouses. We know Marwyn hangs at whorehouses in Oldtown too. And Marwyn is pretty vocal in bashing the grey sheep for their scheming. Oberyn may have been at a whorehouse in Oldtown and heard Marwyn bitch about the fostering which was probably maester Walys' idea.

But Oberyn wants revenge against Tywin and Gregor, not against Tywin, then Gregor, then Cersei. With Tywin dead, Cersei is nothing to him.

And why would the soul be in agony..? Didn't you already put Tywin's soul in there? There can only be one soul (if any), we've seen that as well.

In 271AC Oberyn visited Oldtown and slept with a whore. It fits his personality. He sleeps with many whores, and was quite restless in those days, always traveling around. As a 13 year old boy, you travel around in your own country, when you're older, go might cross the sea.

If Marwyn was against plots, he would not have been told about Walys' plot. More importantly, it's quite a big stretch to assume that just because one Maester was playing a Game of Thrones on a smaller scale, that all the maesters were in on it. There is absolutely no proof for it. And though I like the idea of Marwyn and Oberyn having known each other (but in my mind, from Oberyn's time at the Citadel itself), I doubt it went down in such a fashion that Marwyn openly critisised rather secret plans, and Oberyn just happened to overhear.

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