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Skinchanging Sweetrobin

Oberyn's Sellsword Company was the Brave Companions

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And revealing Cersei to be a liar will do just that: it will get her killed.

It might. And keep in mind, this part is not my conjecture. UnGregor has been revealed and Nymeria claims this proves Cersei is a liar publicly. We shall see what fallout will occur with Nymeria on the small council.

But I suspect that the Sand Snakes will use their influence to save Cersei in exchange for something. My guess is that something is an enactment of Dornish Law and support for Myrcella, which Tyrion had said Cersei might be for since it would give her Casterly Rock and she resented mistreatment because of her gender. Once Dornish Law is in place, the bait and switch will happen. Aegon, if he's of a female line (either from the Blacks or the Blackfyres), would have more right to the Iron Throne than Dany. That's my guess, but now we're way off in the future.

Dead man shitting theory?

"Dead Man Shitting," which my larger Oberyn theory incorporates, is the idea that Tyrion killed a dying Tywin. Tywin was already poisoned with Widow's Blood and dying by constipation. And I completely buy into it. The evidence for this is:

-Pycelle foreshadows it by mentioning Widow's Blood and its effects during the trial.

-Tyrion says Tywin looks like he's been poisoned

-Tywin is on the toilet

-He's been there a while since Shae is asleep

-His poo doesn't release until death

-His body smells unusually bad afterwards.

Now, we don't know who poisoned him, but Oberyn seems likely.

Why would Cersei allow Qyburn to use some part of Tywin (assuming she doesn't know what exactly he used)?

Well, the idea is that she doesn't know. She orders Qyburn to clean up Tywin's body before sending it to the Silent Sisters.

UnGregor is bigger than Gregor... Armor? UnGregor can hardly walk around without it.

The people who Qyburn used for his experiments: He would need practise, before risking messing up Gregor: there was only one shot to this, probably.

All of this is a possibility. And Cersei is a different perspective than Ned so they may see Gregor differently. And Qyburn did say he was learning from his experiments.

That said, the Gregor experiments take place over the course of about a year. This really points to Oberyn's magic poison as a more than just a slow killer. It seems to be a magical preserver. If Gregor had died, he'd have rotten away. If Gregor was alive naturally, he'd need to eat and drink water, but he was screaming constantly and can't. There are no IVs in this world.

So something is up.

The soul leaves the body as soon as it dies. We see that with Orell, and with Varamyr as well. Qyburn did not receive Tywin's body until after he had been dead for a while.

This aspect of the story is a bit inconsistent. What you say is true, but...

We also have Lady Stoneheart, Coldhands, the Whites knowing where Mormont lived, the talking heads of the Whispers, burying bodies by weirwood trees and ravens feasting on bodies for knowledge.

But Oberyn wants revenge against Tywin and Gregor, not against Tywin, then Gregor, then Cersei. With Tywin dead, Cersei is nothing to him.

And why would the soul be in agony..? Didn't you already put Tywin's soul in there? There can only be one soul (if any), we've seen that as well.

If Cersei is nothing, why are Nym and Tyene heading to King's Landing? Why is Arianne off to see Aegon? If justice had been served, the game should be over. Doran has never spoken of playing the game of thrones - only justice, vengeance and fire and blood.

There must be another revenge. (And I think there are several more)

I just assumed the agony because the poison was still in there.

Wasn't Bran and Hodor both in Hodor at the same time?

If Marwyn was against plots, he would not have been told about Walys' plot. More importantly, it's quite a big stretch to assume that just because one Maester was playing a Game of Thrones on a smaller scale, that all the maesters were in on it.

Marwyn makes a connection between the anti-magic position of the Citadel and anti-Targaryen position of the Citadel.

Now, the anti-magic part is pretty clear. Maesters repeatedly downplay the importance of dreams and try to repress them. Maesters immediately hate Red Priests. And those that use magic, keep killing off maesters. So, the anti-magic position of the Grey Sheep seems to be pretty widespread.

The anti-Targaryen position, if true, is widespread, but not as much. Clearly, Marwyn knows about it, but Aemon did not. But then again, he is a Targaryen. Whoever sent Aemon to the Wall would be in on it. Luwin seems to have influenced Jon to go to the Wall, which (if Jon is Targaryen) would point to him being in on it. Pycelle was bold enough to support killing Dany when he usually was more prudent. Jon Connington (a Targ supporter), although not a magic user, kills the maester when he lands. And the Martells, when meeting them, don't weirdly don't bring one.

But while Marwyn is open and knowledgeable to Sam in 300, it's hard to say if he was the same way to Oberyn in 271 or when Oberyn was a student..

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"Dead Man Shitting," which my larger Oberyn theory incorporates, is the idea that Tyrion killed a dying Tywin. Tywin was already poisoned with Widow's Blood and dying by constipation. And I completely buy into it. The evidence for this is:

-Pycelle foreshadows it by mentioning Widow's Blood and its effects during the trial.

-Tyrion says Tywin looks like he's been poisoned

-Tywin is on the toilet

-He's been there a while since Shae is asleep

-His poo doesn't release until death

-His body smells unusually bad afterwards.

Now, we don't know who poisoned him, but Oberyn seems likely.

Ah, okay, I thought you were talking about something else. Little point of disagreement:

- Tywin is on the toilet It's a normal thing to go to the toilet :p Tywin sitting on the toilet is not an argument

- He's been there a while since Shae is asleep Um... because she's asleep and he's not? Shae could simply have fallen asleep around the same time as Tywin, and not woken up when Tywin woke up to go to the toilet. That's normal. :)

- His poo doesn't release until death Your poo releasing after you've died is a normal bodily reaction. When you die, all your muscles relax, including your sphincter, letting out your poo.

Well, the idea is that she doesn't know. She orders Qyburn to clean up Tywin's body before sending it to the Silent Sisters.

And we have absolutely no indication about whether Qyburn was actually left alone with Tywins body. It sound like Tywin remained on his bed until the Silent Sisters came. What Qyburn had to do was remove the quarrel.

All of this is a possibility. And Cersei is a different perspective than Ned so they may see Gregor differently. And Qyburn did say he was learning from his experiments.

That said, the Gregor experiments take place over the course of about a year. This really points to Oberyn's magic poison as a more than just a slow killer. It seems to be a magical preserver. If Gregor had died, he'd have rotten away. If Gregor was alive naturally, he'd need to eat and drink water, but he was screaming constantly and can't. There are no IVs in this world.

So something is up.

Tywin dies about three week into 300AC. Let's round it up to a month. Dance ends the story in about the 7th month, and by that time, Robert Strong has been around for a short while (about a month). So no, the experiments don't take place over a year.

And if you find it possible to believe Qyburn did all the things you say he did, why is it so hard to believe that Qyburn used his "magic" to preserve the body?

This aspect of the story is a bit inconsistent. What you say is true, but...

We also have Lady Stoneheart, Coldhands, the Whites knowing where Mormont lived, the talking heads of the Whispers, burying bodies by weirwood trees and ravens feasting on bodies for knowledge.

Lady Stoneheart is no longer Catelyn Tully, but only a shadow of the woman she onces was.

Coldhands, we have no idea what is going on there

The wights are a complete different something. Though, if you are interested, here is a discussion about why the whights could remember where Mormont was.

Talking heads?

Burying bodies by a weirwood because a weirwood tree is a sacred tree.

Ravens feasting on bodies for knowledge? Ravens eat dead bodies. Simple as that.

If Cersei is nothing, why are Nym and Tyene heading to King's Landing? Why is Arianne off to see Aegon? If justice had been served, the game should be over. Doran has never spoken of playing the game of thrones - only justice, vengeance and fire and blood.

There must be another revenge. (And I think there are several more)

They are entering the Game of Thrones. Cersei had done nothing before, but now, with Ser Balons arrival, she had personally attempted to have Trystane assasinated. So yeah, they are now playing the game.

I just assumed the agony because the poison was still in there.

So Gregor is in agony... But Tywin is in the body...?

Wasn't Bran and Hodor both in Hodor at the same time?

That's warging, and something completely different. With warging, one person willingly goes into the body of another. Once dead, the soul has gone, which is why Varamyr is being so hasty in trying to find another body.

The Catelyn Tully that returned from the death has barely anything from Catelyn left in her... she had been dead for 3 days. Beric Dondarrion died shortly every single time, but became less human with each and every attempt. If Qyburn did something with Gregor and Tywin, Tywin would have been dead for several weeks. A soul doesn't seem to last as long, especially not if we look at how little, if anything, of Catelyn's soul is still around after 3 days.

Marwyn makes a connection between the anti-magic position of the Citadel and anti-Targaryen position of the Citadel.

Now, the anti-magic part is pretty clear. Maesters repeatedly downplay the importance of dreams and try to repress them. Maesters immediately hate Red Priests. And those that use magic, keep killing off maesters. So, the anti-magic position of the Grey Sheep seems to be pretty widespread.

The anti-Targaryen position, if true, is widespread, but not as much. Clearly, Marwyn knows about it, but Aemon did not. But then again, he is a Targaryen. Whoever sent Aemon to the Wall would be in on it. Luwin seems to have influenced Jon to go to the Wall, which (if Jon is Targaryen) would point to him being in on it. Pycelle was bold enough to support killing Dany when he usually was more prudent. Jon Connington (a Targ supporter), although not a magic user, kills the maester when he lands. And the Martells, when meeting them, don't weirdly don't bring one.

But while Marwyn is open and knowledgeable to Sam in 300, it's hard to say if he was the same way to Oberyn in 271 or when Oberyn was a student..

Aemon send himself to the Wall, in order to prevent others from using him to destroy Aegon's reign, because there were plenty of people against Aegon, and those people were willing to support Aemon. Unfortunately for them, Aemon did not want the crown.

Jon being a Targaryen is a secret. Keeping the secret is high treason. Luwin doesn't know it. Catelyn doesn't know it. Ned took it to his grave, and the only person who might still be alive to know about it, is Howland Reed. More likely, we'll see Ned confessing it to his heart tree through Brans visions.

Luwin did not influence Jon to go to the Wall. Jon wanted to go himself, and Benjen approached Luwin about it, asking him questions about Jon (most likely to see if Jon was ready enough).

When was Pycelle ever prudent about not wanting to kill such a big threat? 40.000 Dothraki united because of the marriage of a pregnant 14 year old girl? Daenerys' death would undo that threat to the 7 Kingdoms in one blow.

Jon Connington killed the Maester, because the maester was making multiple attempts to warn anyone about the GC striking. They say a maester should be loyal to his keep, no matter how many times it changes hands, but if you've served someone loyaly for seventeen years, and suddenly this other guy comes in, kills people, locks people up, and claims the lands, you'd try to warn those you've been serving loyally, now wouldn't you?

And what do you mean about the Martells? When meeting them? The Martells have 2 maesters, one at the Water Gardens, one at Sunspear. Caleotte and Myles.

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- His poo doesn't release until death Your poo releasing after you've died is a normal bodily reaction. When you die, all your muscles relax, including your sphincter, letting out your poo.

Not if your constipated. So, regular constipation is caused by not enough water in your colon. You can relax your sphincter, but the poo doesn't slide out because it's too dry. This is why fiber helps - fiber draws water into your colon.

Tywin's problem seems to be he can't relax his sphincter.

Now, I'm not sure if GRRM thought this much about poo and its real life behavior...

And we have absolutely no indication about whether Qyburn was actually left alone with Tywins body. It sound like Tywin remained on his bed until the Silent Sisters came. What Qyburn had to do was remove the quarrel.

Well, it seems Qyburn is stepping in to do a something with the body. He boasts maester knowledge which leads to Cersei allowing him to handle Tywin's corpse. So, whatever coroner-like corpse-prepping activity he was doing, it was above what a laymen could do, but different from what the Silent Sisters were doing. But, yes, we are given very little to go on. Here's the text:

"I could not save Ser Jaime's hand, it is true. My arts saved his arm, however, mayhaps his very life. The Citadel took my chain, but they could not take my knowledge."

"You may suffice," she decided. "If you fail me you will lose more than a chain, I promise you. Remove the quarrel from my father's belly and make him ready for the silent sisters."

"As my queen commands." Qyburn went to the bedside, paused, looked back. "And how shall I deal with the girl, Your Grace?"

Now, Pycelle was off getting the Silent Sisters:

"He's seen him, Your Grace," said Puckens. "He came and saw and went, to summon the silent sisters."

And Pycelle claims he oversaw the Silent Sister's activities despite Qyburn being ordered to prepare the body.

"Do not presume to speak to me of fitness. Not after the stinking mockery you made of my lord father's corpse."

"Your Grace cannot think..." He raised a spotted hand, as if to ward off a blow. "The silent sisters removed Lord Tywin's bowels and organs, drained his blood... every care was taken... his body was stuffed with salts and fragrant herbs..."

So, whatever Qyburn was up to, he had to do it fairly quickly. After all, getting the Silent Sisters couldn't have taken more than maybe a couple hours. Its quite a puzzle. Qyburn barged in and offered his services, which makes it seem like he was up to something.

It may be that Qyburn simple sabotaged the body quickly to make Tywin stink and make Cersei mistrust Pycelle. But, Tywin was already stinking. Then, again the stink was particularily unusual even if he were poisoned. A second stink on top of a first stink?

The whole thing is weird.

Tywin dies about three week into 300AC. Let's round it up to a month. Dance ends the story in about the 7th month, and by that time, Robert Strong has been around for a short while (about a month). So no, the experiments don't take place over a year.

And if you find it possible to believe Qyburn did all the things you say he did, why is it so hard to believe that Qyburn used his "magic" to preserve the body?

6 months, a year, the point is the same - Gregor is being magically preserved by something. Sure, it possible that its Qyburn's magic on an alive Gregor and its possible that its Qyburn's magic on a dead Gregor. But Gregor was having trouble dying before Qyburn got involved. So, that makes me think it's Oberyn's magic.

That's warging, and something completely different. With warging, one person willingly goes into the body of another. Once dead, the soul has gone, which is why Varamyr is being so hasty in trying to find another body.

The Catelyn Tully that returned from the death has barely anything from Catelyn left in her... she had been dead for 3 days. Beric Dondarrion died shortly every single time, but became less human with each and every attempt. If Qyburn did something with Gregor and Tywin, Tywin would have been dead for several weeks. A soul doesn't seem to last as long, especially not if we look at how little, if anything, of Catelyn's soul is still around after 3 days

I certainly wouldn't call warging "completely different" when we know very little about GRRM's idea about warging, the undead or the soul in this universe. Arguing about this is pretty pointless as the text is not consistant. The long, heated "skinchanging vs. warg" threads and the nature of the soul are a sadly comical testiment to this.

Aemon send himself to the Wall, in order to prevent others from using him to destroy Aegon's reign, because there were plenty of people against Aegon, and those people were willing to support Aemon. Unfortunately for them, Aemon did not want the crown.

Jon being a Targaryen is a secret. Keeping the secret is high treason. Luwin doesn't know it. Catelyn doesn't know it. Ned took it to his grave, and the only person who might still be alive to know about it, is Howland Reed. More likely, we'll see Ned confessing it to his heart tree through Brans visions.

Luwin did not influence Jon to go to the Wall. Jon wanted to go himself, and Benjen approached Luwin about it, asking him questions about Jon (most likely to see if Jon was ready enough).

When was Pycelle ever prudent about not wanting to kill such a big threat? 40.000 Dothraki united because of the marriage of a pregnant 14 year old girl? Daenerys' death would undo that threat to the 7 Kingdoms in one blow.

Jon Connington killed the Maester, because the maester was making multiple attempts to warn anyone about the GC striking. They say a maester should be loyal to his keep, no matter how many times it changes hands, but if you've served someone loyaly for seventeen years, and suddenly this other guy comes in, kills people, locks people up, and claims the lands, you'd try to warn those you've been serving loyally, now wouldn't you?

And what do you mean about the Martells? When meeting them? The Martells have 2 maesters, one at the Water Gardens, one at Sunspear. Caleotte and Myles.

Marwyn is saying that the Grey Sheep wanted the Targaryens out. It's a bold accusation as saying they caused the death of dragons is essentially accusing them of starting the Dance.

I mispoke about Aemon. The accusation is that Aemon was left at the Wall rather than made archmaester and coming to Oldtown. Still, the argument is the same. Marwyn is claiming an anti-Targaryen conspiracy.

And here is Luwin's manipulation. Here is Jon talking to Benjen about the Wall. It looks like Jon has already talked to Luwin about it and Luwin is pro-Wall.

Uncle Benjen studied his face carefully. “The Wall is a hard place for a boy, Jon.”

“I am almost a man grown,” Jon protested. “I will turn fifteen on my next name day, and Maester Luwin says bastards grow up faster than other children.”

....

Benjen Stark stood up. "More's the pity." He put a hand on Jon's shoulder. "Come back to me after you've fathered a few bastards of your own, and we'll see how you feel." (Jon I, AGoT)

Now, it important to note that Benjen is firmly against Jon at the Wall. Yet, later Luwin twists the encounter:

Catelyn armored her heart against the mute appeal in her husband’s eyes. “They say your friend Robert has fathered a dozen bastards himself.”

“And none of them has ever been seen at court!” Ned blazed. “The Lannister woman has seen to that. How can you be so damnably cruel, Catelyn? He is only a boy. He-”

His fury was on him. He might have said more, and worse, but Maester Luwin cut in. “Another solution presents itself,” he said, his voice quiet. “Your brother Benjen came to me about Jon a few days ago. It seems the boy aspires to take the black.”

Ned looked shocked. “He asked to join the Night’s Watch?”

Catelyn said nothing. Let Ned work it out in his own mind; her voice would not be welcome now. Yet gladly would she have kissed the maester just then. His was the perfect solution. Benjen Stark was a Sworn Brother. Jon would be a son to him, the child he would never have. And in time the boy would take the oath as well. He would father no sons who might someday contest with Catelyn’s own grandchildren for Winterfell.

Maester Luwin said, “There is great honor in service on the Wall, my lord.”

“And even a bastard may rise high in the Night’s Watch,” Ned reflected. Still, his voice was troubled. “Jon is so young. If he asked this when he was a man grown, that would be one thing, but a boy of fourteen...”

“A hard sacrifice,” Maester Luwin agreed. “Yet these are hard times, my lord. His road is no crueler than yours or your lady’s. (Catelyn II, AGoT)

Notice how Luwin omits that Benjen was firmly against Jon going to the Wall. And its clear that Ned is against the idea as well. It's only because Luwin introduces the notion during an argument with Cat and and then pushes a little more that Jon gets sent to the Wall.

Now, its a different question of whether Luwin knows Jon is a Targaryen and how he found out. But it was Luwin's influence that sent Jon to the Wall.

Connington killed the maester for releasing messages, yes. So, did Roose and Ramsey. But, lots of invaders don't do this when they take cities. Theon didn't. Tywin didn't. Stannis didn't.

Yes, the Martells have 2 maesters. Neither are ever in the room during high level Martell conversation and neither went with Arianne to meet Connington. Instead, Feathers went. Suspicious.

Also, all four maesters that have been on their way to Dany and her dragons have died.

The point being, Grey Sheep maesters and dragons (Targaryen or lizard) don't mix.

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@Skins

Ok, maybe I'm dumb, but how on earth does a Blackfyre bastard have more claim to the throne than a real legal Targaryen daughter??? HUH??? Dafuq??? Sorry, I don't see your point.

In any case, it wouldn't matter. "Birth rights" don't mean as much as they used to, remember?

Please consider it next time.

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Not if your constipated. So, regular constipation is caused by not enough water in your colon. You can relax your sphincter, but the poo doesn't slide out because it's too dry. This is why fiber helps - fiber draws water into your colon.

Tywin's problem seems to be he can't relax his sphincter.

Now, I'm not sure if GRRM thought this much about poo and its real life behavior...

There is no proof Tywin was constipated...

Well, it seems Qyburn is stepping in to do a something with the body. He boasts maester knowledge which leads to Cersei allowing him to handle Tywin's corpse. So, whatever coroner-like corpse-prepping activity he was doing, it was above what a laymen could do, but different from what the Silent Sisters were doing. But, yes, we are given very little to go on. Here's the text:

"I could not save Ser Jaime's hand, it is true. My arts saved his arm, however, mayhaps his very life. The Citadel took my chain, but they could not take my knowledge."

"You may suffice," she decided. "If you fail me you will lose more than a chain, I promise you. Remove the quarrel from my father's belly and make him ready for the silent sisters."

"As my queen commands." Qyburn went to the bedside, paused, looked back. "And how shall I deal with the girl, Your Grace?"

Now, Pycelle was off getting the Silent Sisters:

"He's seen him, Your Grace," said Puckens. "He came and saw and went, to summon the silent sisters."

Cersei only agrees to use Qyburn after she's decided Pycelle is useless. This is why Qyburn gets the job of preparing Tywin's body, which will most likely be removing the quarrel and sowing him up properly.

And Pycelle claims he oversaw the Silent Sister's activities despite Qyburn being ordered to prepare the body.

"Do not presume to speak to me of fitness. Not after the stinking mockery you made of my lord father's corpse."

"Your Grace cannot think..." He raised a spotted hand, as if to ward off a blow. "The silent sisters removed Lord Tywin's bowels and organs, drained his blood... every care was taken... his body was stuffed with salts and fragrant herbs..."

So, whatever Qyburn was up to, he had to do it fairly quickly. After all, getting the Silent Sisters couldn't have taken more than maybe a couple hours. Its quite a puzzle. Qyburn barged in and offered his services, which makes it seem like he was up to something.

It may be that Qyburn simple sabotaged the body quickly to make Tywin stink and make Cersei mistrust Pycelle. But, Tywin was already stinking. Then, again the stink was particularily unusual even if he were poisoned. A second stink on top of a first stink?

The whole thing is weird.

Qyburn was in KL without a job, and had one last card in his hand: he had saved Jaime's life, and proven his worth. However, something had happened to the man whom he hoped to gain something from, and the other person who could possibly give him what he wanted, was Cersei. Qyburn used his talents as soon as he could to get in Cersei's good graces.

Of course there was a smell. The guy had just taken a poo. On top of that, he was bleeding. There's nothing wrong with that.

6 months, a year, the point is the same - Gregor is being magically preserved by something. Sure, it possible that its Qyburn's magic on an alive Gregor and its possible that its Qyburn's magic on a dead Gregor. But Gregor was having trouble dying before Qyburn got involved. So, that makes me think it's Oberyn's magic.

So instead of suspecting the guy who is obviously practicing magic (since dying and then suddenly being able to walk around again is not a natural thing), we suspect the guy who practises poison..?

Marwyn is saying that the Grey Sheep wanted the Targaryens out. It's a bold accusation as saying they caused the death of dragons is essentially accusing them of starting the Dance.

That is not a logical conclusion. It was during the Dance that the dragons (actual dragons) caused lots of destruction and death. That gives the maesters motive. There was no motive before. Before the Dance, the dragons were still plentyfull and healhy. Only after the Dance did this change.

So accusing the maesters of starting the Dance ... no. Accusing them of killing the dragons? We have enough to be suspicious, but no definite proof other than Marwyns words. And the last dragon died 150 years ago, so he can't know personally.

And here is Luwin's manipulation. Here is Jon talking to Benjen about the Wall. It looks like Jon has already talked to Luwin about it and Luwin is pro-Wall.

Uncle Benjen studied his face carefully. “The Wall is a hard place for a boy, Jon.”

“I am almost a man grown,” Jon protested. “I will turn fifteen on my next name day, and Maester Luwin says bastards grow up faster than other children.”

....

Benjen Stark stood up. "More's the pity." He put a hand on Jon's shoulder. "Come back to me after you've fathered a few bastards of your own, and we'll see how you feel." (Jon I, AGoT)

Now, it important to note that Benjen is firmly against Jon at the Wall. Yet, later Luwin twists the encounter:

Catelyn armored her heart against the mute appeal in her husband’s eyes. “They say your friend Robert has fathered a dozen bastards himself.”

“And none of them has ever been seen at court!” Ned blazed. “The Lannister woman has seen to that. How can you be so damnably cruel, Catelyn? He is only a boy. He-”

His fury was on him. He might have said more, and worse, but Maester Luwin cut in. “Another solution presents itself,” he said, his voice quiet. “Your brother Benjen came to me about Jon a few days ago. It seems the boy aspires to take the black.”

Ned looked shocked. “He asked to join the Night’s Watch?”

Catelyn said nothing. Let Ned work it out in his own mind; her voice would not be welcome now. Yet gladly would she have kissed the maester just then. His was the perfect solution. Benjen Stark was a Sworn Brother. Jon would be a son to him, the child he would never have. And in time the boy would take the oath as well. He would father no sons who might someday contest with Catelyn’s own grandchildren for Winterfell.

Maester Luwin said, “There is great honor in service on the Wall, my lord.”

“And even a bastard may rise high in the Night’s Watch,” Ned reflected. Still, his voice was troubled. “Jon is so young. If he asked this when he was a man grown, that would be one thing, but a boy of fourteen...”

“A hard sacrifice,” Maester Luwin agreed. “Yet these are hard times, my lord. His road is no crueler than yours or your lady’s. (Catelyn II, AGoT)

Notice how Luwin omits that Benjen was firmly against Jon going to the Wall. And its clear that Ned is against the idea as well. It's only because Luwin introduces the notion during an argument with Cat and and then pushes a little more that Jon gets sent to the Wall.

Now, its a different question of whether Luwin knows Jon is a Targaryen and how he found out. But it was Luwin's influence that sent Jon to the Wall.

The first quote absolutely does not mean that Luwin told Jon that when they were talking about the NW.

And we don't know what happened in between the Welcoming feast (where Benjen was not that against Jon coming to the Wall, but just told Jon to wait a little while longer, until he would understand what he would be giving up. Jon left the hall angry, shouting how he would not be fathering bastards etc.), but several days have passed. Perhaps Benjen did indeed feel Jon was a bit too young, but went to Luwin to ask about it anyway, to get an idea of how far along Jon was. He couldn't ask Catelyn, because she doesn't care about the boy. He couldn't ask Ned, because Ned would be against it. He could only ask Luwin.

Connington killed the maester for releasing messages, yes. So, did Roose and Ramsey. But, lots of invaders don't do this when they take cities. Theon didn't. Tywin didn't. Stannis didn't.

It's not a rule to kill a maester when you invade. But it is not a strange thing to do in the beginning of your invasion.

Yes, the Martells have 2 maesters. Neither are ever in the room during high level Martell conversation and neither went with Arianne to meet Connington. Instead, Feathers went. Suspicious.

Also, all four maesters that have been on their way to Dany and her dragons have died.

The point being, Grey Sheep maesters and dragons (Targaryen or lizard) don't mix.

Yes, the Martells have two maesters who neither were in the room when Doran was discussing his super secret plans with only his close family, while keeping even more secrets behind from four of those who were present. Why discuss super secret high treason plans with more people than absolutely necessary in the room? The fewer people who know about a secret, the bigger the chance your secret will remain a secret.

And no, neither goes with Arianne to meet Connington. There is no need to bring them. Robb did not take a maester with him when he went south, for example. It is not a rule that you take a maester to accompany you on such occasions. Quentyn took a maester with him because the guy spoke multiple languages, which would have been incredibly usefull... for him. For Arianne.. not so much.

And I believe there is only one maester on the way to Dany: Marwyn. Soon, one from the Citadel will be send in her direction too, but they are the only ones. And for as far as is known, Marwyn is still alive.

Aemon, in case you meant him, was not on his way to Dany. He wanted to, but he was on his way to the Citadel when he died, not to Dany.

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There is no proof Tywin was constipated...

I don't know about you, but when I go to the bathroom, my poo comes out within the first few seconds (unless I'm constipated). So, a healthy unconstipated Tywin theory would require that Tywin enter the privy right before Tyrion came out of the secret passage. Then, Tywin would need to hang out in the privy twiddling his thumbs for no reason roughly the amount of time Tyrion was looking around, talking to Shae, killing Shae and collecting weapons. Then, just a few second before Tyrion entered, Tywin would need to decide to suddenly take a crap.

So, yes, I would say that Tywin was constipated.

Of course there was a smell. The guy had just taken a poo. On top of that, he was bleeding. There's nothing wrong with that

The smell persisted after the bowels were removed and the he was stuffed with herbs. So, either the poison made him smell or Qyburn sabotaged the body......or Pycelle really is a fuck-up and Cersei was right, but I highly doubt the last one. :)

So instead of suspecting the guy who is obviously practicing magic (since dying and then suddenly being able to walk around again is not a natural thing), we suspect the guy who practises poison..?

Well, Oberyn is known for studying magic as well. And Pycelle, who studied poisons, didn't know what was going on with the poison. And Qyburn said there was magic on the poison. So, either:

1) There was no magic in the poison: Pycelle screwed up and Qyburn is a liar.

or

2) The poison really was magical.

I am inclined to believe #2. Keep in mind, Qyburn gets laughed at by Cersei when he mentions magic, so it wasn't in his best interest to lie. And Pycelle is an expert in poison.

So, Oberyn's magic was first on the scene to "draw out the Mountain's dying." The question is, how long can Oberyn's magic draw it out? Is that what is preserving Gregor or did Qyburn do some extra magic? It's hard to say. We don't know.

But, Oberyn died in order to draw out the Mountain's dying. So, it was important to him.

That is not a logical conclusion. It was during the Dance that the dragons (actual dragons) caused lots of destruction and death. That gives the maesters motive. There was no motive before. Before the Dance, the dragons were still plentyfull and healhy. Only after the Dance did this change.

So accusing the maesters of starting the Dance ... no. Accusing them of killing the dragons? We have enough to be suspicious, but no definite proof other than Marwyns words. And the last dragon died 150 years ago, so he can't know personally.

There is some indication that during the Dance, the maesters pitted the Blacks and Greens against each other. Maesters are supposed to take no sides, but maester Norren's actions go way beyond what a maester should be doing. And maester Orwyle seemed to be exceptionally bad at advising.

Yes, the Martells have two maesters who neither were in the room when Doran was discussing his super secret plans with only his close family, while keeping even more secrets behind from four of those who were present. Why discuss super secret high treason plans with more people than absolutely necessary in the room? The fewer people who know about a secret, the bigger the chance your secret will remain a secret.

And no, neither goes with Arianne to meet Connington. There is no need to bring them. Robb did not take a maester with him when he went south, for example. It is not a rule that you take a maester to accompany you on such occasions. Quentyn took a maester with him because the guy spoke multiple languages, which would have been incredibly usefull... for him. For Arianne.. not so much.

And I believe there is only one maester on the way to Dany: Marwyn. Soon, one from the Citadel will be send in her direction too, but they are the only ones. And for as far as is known, Marwyn is still alive.

Aemon, in case you meant him, was not on his way to Dany. He wanted to, but he was on his way to the Citadel when he died, not to Dany.

Keep in mind, Ned, Cat, Theon and Stannis all discussed their high level strategy (even treason) with their maesters. Maesters are supposed to be nuetral.

I agree, maesters aren't a rule, but they do show whether the user trusts them.

Martells and Connington do not trust maesters. Martells do not seek their council and use Feathers. Connington uses Haldon for communication. and kills the maester at Griffon's Roost. The only other house that shows this much distrust is House Boltons. They also don't seek their council, they kill the maesters at Harrenhal and Winterfell. And they seem fine with Qyburn (a non-Grey Sheep).

And we have these examples of Grey Sheep maesters trying to get Dany:

1) the Yronwoods manned the Quentyn trip so they brought along the Yronwood maester (Kedry). He was imediately and mysteriously murdered by "pirates."

2) Maester Aemon was on his way to Dany temporarily (his plan was first Oldtown, changed his mind to Dany, changed his mind back to Oldtown). Yeah, he was 105, but he was also being watched by Marwyn. He ended up dead.

3) Maester Kerwin...murdered by Moqorro who wants to bind dragons.

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@Skins

Ok, maybe I'm dumb, but how on earth does a Blackfyre bastard have more claim to the throne than a real legal Targaryen daughter??? HUH??? Dafuq??? Sorry, I don't see your point.

In any case, it wouldn't matter. "Birth rights" don't mean as much as they used to, remember?

Please consider it next time.

The idea is that when people talk about Dany being the "last Targaryen," it's only through male lineage.

And male lineage is not an extremely old Targaryen tradition. They only picked it up after the Dance.

So, the idea is that Aegon (or many, many other people out there) may be real Targayens, but through a female lines.

If Dornish Law is declared Westerosi law, those female lines are now fair game. Dany's claim is nothing....except her dragons.

Now, yes, dragons are important, but they aren't the nuclear option that we are first led to believe they are. According to that new sample chapter on Aegon's Landing, It turns out the original Aegon used a lot of diplomacy to conquer Westeros. And never he conquered Dorne. So, Dany will have to play the game of thrones like everyone else.

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I don't know about you, but when I go to the bathroom, my poo comes out within the first few seconds (unless I'm constipated). So, a healthy unconstipated Tywin theory would require that Tywin enter the privy right before Tyrion came out of the secret passage. Then, Tywin would need to hang out in the privy twiddling his thumbs for no reason roughly the amount of time Tyrion was looking around, talking to Shae, killing Shae and collecting weapons. Then, just a few second before Tyrion entered, Tywin would need to decide to suddenly take a crap.

So, yes, I would say that Tywin was constipated.

Ehm, even people who are not constipated sometimes take some more time on the toilet. Tyrion did not spend that much time with Shae, because she said the wrong thing rather quickly.

The smell persisted after the bowels were removed and the he was stuffed with herbs. So, either the poison made him smell or Qyburn sabotaged the body......or Pycelle really is a fuck-up and Cersei was right, but I highly doubt the last one. :)

We were talking about Tywin smelling weird shortly after his death. That was prior to the removel of bowels, and prior to being stuffed with herbs.

In addition, the arrow went through Tywins bowels. Cutting open bowels of any animal (or human thus) releases a rather horrible smell.

As to the possibility that Cersei was right.. Of course that's a possibility. It's highly unlikely, though :)

Well, Oberyn is known for studying magic as well. And Pycelle, who studied poisons, didn't know what was going on with the poison. And Qyburn said there was magic on the poison. So, either:

1) There was no magic in the poison: Pycelle screwed up and Qyburn is a liar.

or

2) The poison really was magical.

I am inclined to believe #2. Keep in mind, Qyburn gets laughed at by Cersei when he mentions magic, so it wasn't in his best interest to lie. And Pycelle is an expert in poison.

So, Oberyn's magic was first on the scene to "draw out the Mountain's dying." The question is, how long can Oberyn's magic draw it out? Is that what is preserving Gregor or did Qyburn do some extra magic? It's hard to say. We don't know.

But, Oberyn died in order to draw out the Mountain's dying. So, it was important to him.

I'm not saying there was no magic in the poison. The poison was thickened, to draw out the effects and slow the dying.

Oberyn did not need to die to draw out the Mountains dying. Once it would become obvious during the battle that the Mountain was going to lose, Oberyn could have demanded the Mountain yielded, which he would obviously do. And then Oberyn would have his confessions, and the Mountain could slowly waste away.

The mountain died. There is no skull that large in Westeros, and it has been removed from the body. Gregor screamed for days and nights, and stopped at a certain moment, because he had died.

There is some indication that during the Dance, the maesters pitted the Blacks and Greens against each other. Maesters are supposed to take no sides, but maester Norren's actions go way beyond what a maester should be doing. And maester Orwyle seemed to be exceptionally bad at advising.

Grandmaester Orwyle tried to fix it all without violence.

Maester Norren was willing to go to trial for his treason. That does not strike me as someone who is trying to put one side against the other.

The Dance originated because Alicant and her family wanted her own blood on the throne, and Viserys wouldn't allow it. Simple as that.

Keep in mind, Ned, Cat, Theon and Stannis all discussed their high level strategy (even treason) with their maesters. Maesters are supposed to be nuetral.

Really? Because I can't recall reading about Ned or Catelyn discussing their strategies, and Stannis was actively busy locking out Cressen.

I agree, maesters aren't a rule, but they do show whether the user trusts them.

Martells and Connington do not trust maesters. Martells do not seek their council and use Feathers. Connington uses Haldon for communication. and kills the maester at Griffon's Roost. The only other house that shows this much distrust is House Boltons. They also don't seek their council, they kill the maesters at Harrenhal and Winterfell. And they seem fine with Qyburn (a non-Grey Sheep).

Haldon is Conningtons maester of sorts, Feathers is only for the ravens (like Samwell during the Great Ranging). Roose has three maesters present at Winterfell.

And we have these examples of Grey Sheep maesters trying to get Dany:

1) the Yronwoods manned the Quentyn trip so they brought along the Yronwood maester (Kedry). He was imediately and mysteriously murdered by "pirates."

2) Maester Aemon was on his way to Dany temporarily (his plan was first Oldtown, changed his mind to Dany, changed his mind back to Oldtown). Yeah, he was 105, but he was also being watched by Marwyn. He ended up dead.

3) Maester Kerwin...murdered by Moqorro who wants to bind dragons.

1) You are seriously questioning that they were pirates? The Stepstones are known to contain pirates. And every now and then, they catch a ship

2) Aemon was on hsi way to Oldtown. Saying once in Braavos that he should go to her, but can't, does not equal "being on the way to Dany"

(and he was 102 years old :) the timeline fan inside of me just had to say that)

3) It was not Kerwins choice to go to Dany. He was ordered to join, and he did not enjoy the journey.

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Ehm, even people who are not constipated sometimes take some more time on the toilet. Tyrion did not spend that much time with Shae, because she said the wrong thing rather quickly.

Pre-poo? Sure, people take their time, but isn't that for the later turds? The conversation and searching for the weapons (I think the longer event) must have taken at least a few minutes. That's a long time to sit there preparing for your first turd.

Oh conversation has reached new greats. :)

We were talking about Tywin smelling weird shortly after his death. That was prior to the removel of bowels, and prior to being stuffed with herbs.

You can't have it both ways. There's either have one stink source that produced both bad smells (in privy and at funeral) or you can have two sources. (even greater greats in conversation :) )

If we have one stink source, it means Tywin was poisoned by Oberyn.

If we have two stink sources, it means the first one is natural, but the second still needs a source. That means Qyburn tampered with the body.

So, which do you believe? That Tywin was poisoned or that Qyburn tampered with the body. Because you seem to be believe neither.

Really? Because I can't recall reading about Ned or Catelyn discussing their strategies, and Stannis was actively busy locking out Cressen.

Ned and Cat talked about Jon Arryn's murder and their mistrust of the Lannisters with Luwin. Stannis talked about how he should ally with and who he should marry Shrieen to with Cressen in the ACoK prologue

Haldon is Conningtons maester of sorts, Feathers is only for the ravens (like Samwell during the Great Ranging). Roose has three maesters present at Winterfell.

"Of sorts" is not a Grey Sheep - the ones who are part of the main Citadel establishment. When I'm talking about the anti-magic, anti-Targ maesters, I don't mean Aemon, Marwyn, Qyburn or Haldon.

Those three maesters weren't Roose's. His was with Karstark. And earlier at the Dreadfort, his maester wasn't there when he talked to Umber and Karstark.

1) You are seriously questioning that they were pirates? The Stepstones are known to contain pirates. And every now and then, they catch a ship

2) Aemon was on hsi way to Oldtown. Saying once in Braavos that he should go to her, but can't, does not equal "being on the way to Dany"

(and he was 102 years old :) the timeline fan inside of me just had to say that)

3) It was not Kerwins choice to go to Dany. He was ordered to join, and he did not enjoy the journey.

Oh, hell yeah, I'm questioning those shipless pirates who kill a maester in battle! :) Shouldn't the maester be hiding? Anyway, it was clear they were sellswords because they carried their wealth on them. It was a hit.

And on Kerwin, his motive is not important. It's the motive of the people that keep stopping them.

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What I don't get is if Oberyn has any control over BC, why do they murder Lorch? Oberyn is trying to get confession out of Gregor. Wouldn't it be easier to get Lorch to point the finger at Tywin than getting Gregor to? Isn't two confessions better than one?

I don't think the BC are the sellsword company Oberyn founded, but I do think Qyburn is Oberyn' s man.

I'm also not sure Tywin was poisoned by the Red Viper. I think Qyburn did something to the body to make it appear and smell like it did posthumously. After all Tywin was in bed with Shay and I don't think he was painting her toe nails. If your poisoned or even constipated, the last thing on your mind would be having sex.

As far as a plan to rile up the faith lets remember the most important part of any power the faith has is the gift of militancy given by Cersi. I don't think even the most brilliant strategists anywhere saw that coming. Without it they are only a small problem for an armed force.

As far as your theory regarding Qyburn and SRS I think you are spot on.

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What I don't get is if Oberyn has any control over BC, why do they murder Lorch? Oberyn is trying to get confession out of Gregor. Wouldn't it be easier to get Lorch to point the finger at Tywin than getting Gregor to? Isn't two confessions better than one?

I don't think the BC are the sellsword company Oberyn founded, but I do think Qyburn is Oberyn' s man.

I'm also not sure Tywin was poisoned by the Red Viper. I think Qyburn did something to the body to make it appear and smell like it did posthumously. After all Tywin was in bed with Shay and I don't think he was painting her toe nails. If your poisoned or even constipated, the last thing on your mind would be having sex.

As far as a plan to rile up the faith lets remember the most important part of any power the faith has is the gift of militancy given by Cersi. I don't think even the most brilliant strategists anywhere saw that coming. Without it they are only a small problem for an armed force.

As far as your theory regarding Qyburn and SRS I think you are spot on.

Exactly. Constipated, or poisoned, you'll be having some pain, some difficulties, and you won't be wanting sex.

Pre-poo? Sure, people take their time, but isn't that for the later turds? The conversation and searching for the weapons (I think the longer event) must have taken at least a few minutes. That's a long time to sit there preparing for your first turd.

Oh conversation has reached new greats. :)

Hahaha, yeah, our conversation has reached levels.... Wow...

Well, I do think it most certainly is possible that pre-poop you sit on the toilet for a few minutes. When your body signals it is time, but it won't actually come out yet. And after a few minutes, there it is.

You can't have it both ways. There's either have one stink source that produced both bad smells (in privy and at funeral) or you can have two sources. (even greater greats in conversation :) )

If we have one stink source, it means Tywin was poisoned by Oberyn.

If we have two stink sources, it means the first one is natural, but the second still needs a source. That means Qyburn tampered with the body.

So, which do you believe? That Tywin was poisoned or that Qyburn tampered with the body. Because you seem to be believe neither.

Tywin was stinking on his bed because of the state he was fond in (on the privy, with some in the privy itself, and some most likely still stuck in his bowels, that smell terrible once cut open)

If I have to say there was something going on, then I'd say Oberyn had poisoned Tywin. But I still think that it is more likely that the decay of Tywins body was natural, and an ironic way to show that this man who believed he was better than gods was no better than smallfolk.

I think it was too early for Qyburn to tamper with the body to get in Cersei's good graces. I think he got into her good graces later, making himself usefull in different ways. Nothing to do with Tywin.

Those three maesters weren't Roose's. His was with Karstark. And earlier at the Dreadfort, his maester wasn't there when he talked to Umber and Karstark.

But if his maester is with Karstark (you mean Arnolf, right), than the maester has simply been told off-page.. Arnolfs entire purpose is to betray Stannis..

And even if those other three aren't his own maesters, he still discusses things with them.

Oh, hell yeah, I'm questioning those shipless pirates who kill a maester in battle! :) Shouldn't the maester be hiding? Anyway, it was clear they were sellswords because they carried their wealth on them. It was a hit.

And on Kerwin, his motive is not important. It's the motive of the people that keep stopping them.

For Quentyn's maester, there are 3 scenario's. Either 1) the pirates advanced too quickly, leaving the maester with not enough time to hide, or 2) we are seeing a particular brave maester here, or 3) the captain of the ship ordered everyone to fight. Kind of logical, if you are being under attack.
Maesters aren't usually that trained in battle, so it's not surprising that he got killed.

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The thing with the Dornish law is irrelevant as the central power of the Iron Throne is all but crumbled.


FAegon's claim is his Golden Company, while Dany's claim are her own army AND the dragons.


Dany rides the biggest of the dragons, who happens to be black as Balerion.


Dany has more Valyrian blood than any, and even Jon Starkgaryen has more than Blackfyre Aegon.


That is, if my theories about the last two are correct (Aegon being the son of Illyrio and R+L=J).


Why the blood matters? Because magic, that's why. Melisandre is ignorant as Jon Snow it seems


and doesn't realise that "King's Blood" means the Blood of Old Valyria.


Yeah, there is also the blood of the First Men, who bonded with the Children, of course.


And the Rhoynar, with their strange river-magic. But Valyrian magic is most prominent as of now.



In effect, the Iron Throne will be taken by arms or dragonfire.


All your birthright and female bloodlines have lost any meaning.


It will take a new conqueror to unite the realm once again.


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There is no indications as to what Moqorro wants. Clearly, whatever it is, it won't be... beneficial... to Victarion's health.


If Moqorro is on team Bloodmagic/Pyromancer then he'd want to see the dragons thrive.


But in their crazy minds, what does that mean?


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Oh, hell yeah, I'm questioning those shipless pirates who kill a maester in battle! :) Shouldn't the maester be hiding? Anyway, it was clear they were sellswords because they carried their wealth on them. It was a hit.

Sounds like Golden Company. I remember not all of them made it across the sea at first, being stranded on the Archipelago.

Do you suggest that someone with influence in the Golden Company ordered the attack? You mean there is a link between

Connington throwing out maesters and the other players who are pro-Targaryen doing the same?

If that is correct, the realisation is: some key player(s) want to prevent what the Grey Sheep did once - killing dragons.

Here is the thing, though: I find it hard to believe that all these key players are working closely together.

Varys hates magic (allegedly) from the day some crazy magician used his Valyrian blood in some freaky,

useless ritual. But Illyrio does not seem to mind magic, if I read that bit right, a Red Temple is near his manse.

Hm... crazy people have way too much power in the lands of GRRM. Just as in the real world.

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Sounds like Golden Company. I remember not all of them made it across the sea at first, being stranded on the Archipelago.

Do you suggest that someone with influence in the Golden Company ordered the attack? You mean there is a link between

Connington throwing out maesters and the other players who are pro-Targaryen doing the same?

If that is correct, the realisation is: some key player(s) want to prevent what the Grey Sheep did once - killing dragons.

Here is the thing, though: I find it hard to believe that all these key players are working closely together.

Varys hates magic (allegedly) from the day some crazy magician used his Valyrian blood in some freaky,

useless ritual. But Illyrio does not seem to mind magic, if I read that bit right, a Red Temple is near his manse.

Hm... crazy people have way too much power in the lands of GRRM. Just as in the real world.

The GC did not have their own ships. They were brought across by Lynesi, IIRC. And from land, it's rather difficult to attack a sailing ship.

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Sounds like Golden Company. I remember not all of them made it across the sea at first, being stranded on the Archipelago.

Do you suggest that someone with influence in the Golden Company ordered the attack? You mean there is a link between

Connington throwing out maesters and the other players who are pro-Targaryen doing the same?

If that is correct, the realisation is: some key player(s) want to prevent what the Grey Sheep did once - killing dragons.

Here is the thing, though: I find it hard to believe that all these key players are working closely together.

Varys hates magic (allegedly) from the day some crazy magician used his Valyrian blood in some freaky,

useless ritual. But Illyrio does not seem to mind magic, if I read that bit right, a Red Temple is near his manse.

Hm... crazy people have way too much power in the lands of GRRM. Just as in the real world.

Well, the "pirates" were carrying their wealth like sellswords, but at the same time, there is no mention of the golden arm bands typical of the Golden Company.

The problem is there are so many parties that hate Grey Sheep maesters that wouldn't want them near Dany:

Team Red God

The Martells

Marwyn

Qyburn

Jon Connington

Varys

Right now, I'm leaning towards the Martells killing off Kedry.

One of the things I can't get out of my head was the fat pirate. Is there any chance that was Zollo, the fat? Could he have gotten from Harrenhall onto a ship that quickly?

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Zollo... yes, if the Martells are behind it, mayhaps.

But can you explain to me shortly, why Martells are anti-grey sheep?

Because they are pro-Aegon? At this point even Doran doesn't seem

to know much about this alleged Aegon. And, please DO note that...

DANY has the dragons! Not Aegon!!! So why would they do it?

I find it hard to believe that Doran cares about who gets the Iron Throne.

He is a dying man and lives only for his vengeance on the Lannisters, right?

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Zollo... yes, if the Martells are behind it, mayhaps. But can you explain to me shortly, why Martells are anti-grey sheep? Because they are pro-Aegon? At this point even Doran doesn't seem to know much about this alleged Aegon. And, please DO note that... DANY has the dragons! Not Aegon!!! So why would they do it? I find it hard to believe that Doran cares about who gets the Iron Throne. He is a dying man and lives only for his vengeance on the Lannisters, right?

Well, there's other people out there to get revenge on. Let's keep in mind that Aerys took Elia and her children hostage to ensure Martell loyalty during Robert's rebellion. And we all know how that turned out. So, the Targaryens should no longer hold any Martell loyalty. However, Viserys ad Dany are innocent of any crimes themselves. So, it's hard to say what's going on in Doran's head.

On the other side, the Blackfyres first rebelled in part because of Martell influence on House Targaryen. This may be why House Yronwood is so loyal to the Blackfyre moment. And while Aegon is innocent, it's hard to say what's going on in Doran's head.

On other fronts, Lyn Corbray in the Vale killed an injured Lewyn Martell on the battlefield. And there are the more basic family feuds the Martells have with the Yronwoods, Tyrells and Baratheons that go back thousands of years.

The revenge never stops really.

Now, on the Grey Sheep. If Marywn and Lady Dustin are to be believed, the Grey Sheep are anti-magic, anti-dragon and anti-Targaryen. Lady Dustin seems to believe that the maesters influenced Rickard Stark and others into "Southron Ambitions," which is essentially a Stark/Arynn/Baratheon/Tully alliance. Jon Arynn would foster Ned and Robert. Brandon would marry Cat. Robert would marry Lyssa. So, it may be that Rhaegar's kidnapping of Lyssa was partially driven by a desire to break up this alliance. And Aerys actions don't look quite so insane if the Starks, Arynns, Baratheons and Tullys really are conspiring against him.

So, politically, the Martells should not be thrilled with the Grey Sheep for essentially starting a war that got a lot of Martells killed by creating an alliance that did not include them.

But, beyond that, if the Martells are teamed up with Marwyn and Qyburn and want dragons, they would not be the maesters friends. Marwyn claims the maesters killed the dragons. So, the maesters may try to do that again.

And it may be that the whole revenge angle is a red herring.

Oberyn started all of his crazy activity long before the Lannisters or Targaryens were guilty of anything against House Martell.

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I agree with this North + South alliance, it has always struck me as odd.

No good could have come of this, these people are too different.

All potential Stark leaders got killed, only children survived,

and House Baratheon is basically down to Stannis at the wall.

House Tully has lost the Overlordship and the Arryns... well, that is

Littlefinger's work.

But I always thought that Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna because Elya could not

birth a third son, and he thought the third son could be the PtwP.

PS: The Yronwoods were pro-Blackfyre because they hated Martells for taking

power from them, I believe Yronwoods were once something like the top

houses of Dorne. Who would they support now? Very thrilled to find out.

I thought Yronwoods still had a great number of knights and heavy horse.

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