Aegon VI's Identity: Compiling the Evidence

[NoneofYourBiz]

But Barristan believes she may have leapt to her death, in part, out of grief for the man that dishonored her. Why would she grieve for Aerys, especially if he raped her?

[Mad King James]

But Barristan believes she may have leapt to her death, in part, out of grief for the man that dishonored her. Why would she grieve for Aerys, especially if he raped her?

She didn't kill herself, she disappeared. People THINK she might have killed herself, allegedly by jumping off a tower, but her body was never found.

[NoneofYourBiz]

Yes, I know, but Barristan believes she leapt to her death, and says it was out of grief for child and perhaps the man that dishonored. Again, why would Barristan posit that she grieved over Aerys? Doesnt make sense.

[Mad King James]

Yes, I know, but Barristan believes she leapt to her death, and says it was out of grief for child and perhaps the man that dishonored. Again, why would Barristan posit that she grieved over Aerys? Doesnt make sense.

How does he know she wasn't grieving for someone else? Her brother had just died.

[NoneofYourBiz]

You are missing my point. She could be grieving over any number of things, however Barristan says, in particular, that perhaps she grieved over the man who dishonored her at Harrenhal. She wouldn't grieve her rapist. Whether or not she truly did leap to her death or whether she might have been grieving for her brother, her baby, or whatever, Barristan knows who dishonored her and the fact that he thinks she may have grieved for him implies she cared for him. Since people usually do not mourn their rapists, especially enough for someone to think you committed suicide over it, I think this discounts Aerys. It implies Ashara loved this person, and now they are lost to her.

[Winterfell is Burning]

It implies Ashara loved this person, and now they are lost to her.

Yep, although that can mean both someone that is dead (like, say, Rhaegar or Brandon) or simply someone she can't have (for example, Ned).

[NoneofYourBiz]

Exactly. :-)

[igrewupinKL]

Very impressively put together

on your point 1.

Why would Varys switch only Aegon?

If Aegon is indeed fake, the claim that a dead baby is not actually dead is harder to disprove than a toddler. Toddler's have grown to a stage where they are recognisable, have specific features etc. Also Aegon had fair hair (Targ features) which is much more rare than Rhaenys' darker features.

On his intentions, I think Varys wanted to prove that environment is everything, that birthright doesn't make you a good King. That anyone could be a great King given the right education. It explains everything if Aegon is fake.

[joluoto2]

Regarding Ashara: why do so many people think she's alive? If it's true that she lost a child, a brother and a lover all in relatively short span of time, her commiting suicide seem very plausible.

Now of course, she might be alive. And for all we know she might never have lost her daughter (some think her sister Allyria Dayne actually is her daughter). But people seem to very easily dismiss the very large possibility that she actually is dead. And there really has been no clues that she's alive. We also have ridiculous claim on where she is: all from her being Septa Lemore to her being Howland Reed's wife. I'm quite certain none of those crackpots are true even if she might be alive.

[Snows Queen]

I think trying to reason what a mad person would do is pointless. (In regards to Aerys and what he might have done)

[Chebyshov]

I'm in the middle of my first reread, and just found an interesting tidbit an a Tyrion chapter last night (edited my original post to reflect this).

The ADWD epilogue is used as evidence both for and against Aegon's validity. A lot of people found Varys's conversation with Kevan to be highly suspicious, because he answered with a strange voice, and with evasive wording. However, in the chapter with Tyrion, his voice changes as well, when he tells the story of him being cut. I always took Varys to be sincere during this moment, so the "different" voice may actually be a signal for when Varys speaks directly and truthfully.

I've quoted my edited post below with the relevant text:

e.) Varys tells a dying man on his deathbed that Aegon lives. Why would he bother to prevaricate to someone he knows isn’t leaving the room alive?

...

(Counter-point)

e.) Varys is hardly presented as a trustworthy character, and there’s something bizarre about his voice in that scene, which is suspicious.

EDIT 7/11/2014:

I just reread a chapter last night that was relevant to the counter to point e.

We've heard Varys's voice seem "odd" or "different" before, and it's during a moment of candor: when he tells Tyrion about his being cut.

The change in his voice with Kevan may mean that he's actually being honest.

[Not a kneeler]

I think when his voice changes, Varys is at his most real. I do not believe, however that on his part this equates with absolute honesty. In the case of his talk with Kevan, Varys' belief that he is doing the right thing, putting someone who really deserves the power on the Iron Throne is behind his statement. That is why I believe fAegon is a true Targ and not some nameless boy. The real Aegon? No. Someone would have told - someone always does, and the castle was full of servants and other nameless people that serve the crown.

[WatcherOnTheWall]

So how can Aegon be real? Keep in mind the true Aegon would still be the Sun’s son. Who is the mummer’s dragon then? Mayhaps the character who had a PoV titled “the dragontamer,” but was no such thing.

The Sun's son was a foreshadowing of Quentin Martell's emergence.

[Chebyshov]

The Sun's son was a foreshadowing of Quentin Martell's emergence.

Probably, but I think there's no reason why Sun's son couldn't be Aegon, which would make the mummer's dragon Quentyn. I don't think we can draw any conclusions from Quaithe's warning yet.

I think when his voice changes, Varys is at his most real. I do not believe, however that on his part this equates with absolute honesty. In the case of his talk with Kevan, Varys' belief that he is doing the right thing, putting someone who really deserves the power on the Iron Throne is behind his statement. That is why I believe fAegon is a true Targ and not some nameless boy. The real Aegon? No. Someone would have told - someone always does, and the castle was full of servants and other nameless people that serve the crown.

Well, we really don't know the logistics of the baby-swap, if it did indeed happen, but a salient point nonetheless.

Truthfully, I'm hoping his identity remains in question, no matter how his plot turns out. I think what's great about his character is the ambiguity, and how other players react to him as a result of that.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Yes, I know, but Barristan believes she leapt to her death, and says it was out of grief for child and perhaps the man that dishonored. Again, why would Barristan posit that she grieved over Aerys? Doesnt make sense.

Was Barristan actually there when she jumped off the tower? Did he see her do it? I think it's important to take second- or third-hand accounts with a pinch of salt.

ETA: I concluded long ago that Aegon was a fraud and is either a Blackfyre himself or a plant by the Blackfyre faction. I have yet to see any evidence to dissuade me from this conclusion. As Bumps said it all comes down to whether someone trusts Varys. Too many people ask for evidence that he's fake, oblivious to the fact that there isn't any evidence that he's real.

[Ser Eric]

Good thread and I agree with the conclusions. There's very little evidence of him being a Blackfyre though I wouldn't mind if he turned out one

[SunflashJT]

I believe Aegon VI to be the real deal. I know Varys is the 'Master of Whisperers' but he says he smuggled Aegon VI out and I believe him.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I thought Brandon Stark had no sons.

Brandon died before he had sons

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Asshai.com_Interview_in_Barcelona/

There ya go

It'd be an exaggeration to say that Brandon died before he could have children. It's established in the books that he was no virgin. He could very well have left behind some little Snows in the various places he visited. But what's absolutely clear is that he had no legitimate children.

Brandon had no legitimate children.. but bastards just might have been (or be) up there in the north ;)

Very impressively put together

on your point 1.

Why would Varys switch only Aegon?

If Aegon is indeed fake, the claim that a dead baby is not actually dead is harder to disprove than a toddler. Toddler's have grown to a stage where they are recognisable, have specific features etc. Also Aegon had fair hair (Targ features) which is much more rare than Rhaenys' darker features.

On his intentions, I think Varys wanted to prove that environment is everything, that birthright doesn't make you a good King. That anyone could be a great King given the right education. It explains everything if Aegon is fake.

Rhaenys was a girl, and thus would not have been a danger to the rebels. Her life should have been safe, yet, Tywin intervened.

As well, Rhaenys was a 3 year old girl, known to all those who lived in the Red Keep. It would be very difficult to find a girl that looked enough like her to fool people. From a distance, they might have been fooled, but not up close.

I think when his voice changes, Varys is at his most real. I do not believe, however that on his part this equates with absolute honesty. In the case of his talk with Kevan, Varys' belief that he is doing the right thing, putting someone who really deserves the power on the Iron Throne is behind his statement. That is why I believe fAegon is a true Targ and not some nameless boy. The real Aegon? No. Someone would have told - someone always does, and the castle was full of servants and other nameless people that serve the crown.

Agreed with the bolded part. Is it absolute honesty that he's telling at those moments? I don't know, he might still be keeping something back.

I think when his voice changes, Varys is at his most real. I do not believe, however that on his part this equates with absolute honesty. In the case of his talk with Kevan, Varys' belief that he is doing the right thing, putting someone who really deserves the power on the Iron Throne is behind his statement. That is why I believe fAegon is a true Targ and not some nameless boy. The real Aegon? No. Someone would have told - someone always does, and the castle was full of servants and other nameless people that serve the crown.

Who would have told? The only ones who knew (in the beginning) were Varys and Illyrio. And all those that joined in later believe they are working to put the real Aegon on the throne.

[Mitbert Strangejoy]

Regarding Aegon's hair, it's not completely impossible that he secretly has dark hair. We have already been introduced to the notion that he dyes his hair to conceal his identity. His Tyroshi blue allegedly hides light hair, but he could also just as easily hide dark hair and perhaps die his hair light (Varys would presumably be familiar with such simple disguises).

[Prince of the North]

Interesting stuff but I'm not sure Varys and Illyrio's motivation for doing all that they seem to be doing is adequately explored. That's why I think fAegon has to be either a Targaryen or a Blackfyre (and I think he's a Blackfyre through his mother Sera and, thus, that would make Illyrio his father). I don't believe Varys and Illyrio are simply in the business of King-making because, of course, there would be far simpler, more direct ways of achieving that. No, they want, for whatever reasons, to set things right, to restore things to how they were and how they should be.

Now, this is just some speculation on my part, but I also believe Varys and Illyrio are about to have a falling out because I believe Illyrio is Team Blackfyre while I believe Varys is Team Targaryen ;)