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Aegon VI's Identity: Compiling the Evidence


Chebyshov

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What if Aegon and Jon are twins? Ned took Jon, someone else took Aegon.

I also think it's possible that Jon is the real Aegon based of Dany's HotU vision, and Ned changed his name to Jon to make a Stark/Snow out of him. I think that is very possible actually.

I think this is a big indicator that the Aegon in question isn't the real Aegon. Rhaegar calls him the prince that was promised in the vision, and I do believe that it has to be Jon. The title of the book series also alludes to Rhaegar's harp song being very important (the one he plays after calling the baby the prince that was promised.) And we know Jon is ice and fire, so... fAegon. I'm sure it won't matter though, and fAegon will sit the iron throne while Jon sits on the more important throne, keeping peace between humanity, ice, and fire.

I am all for toying with child-switching and twin theories and all that. There also is no reason to not occasionally try to poke holes into R+L=J. That's not a holy dogma or anything.

Nevertheless: when I was playing with this very same thought I had to quickly lay it to rest because 1) Jon is described as looking very 'starkish' and 2) Jon is a warg like the rest of the Starks. I think we can rule out that he has gotten these traits from Elia of Dorne. A Stark has to be one of his parents. So unless you somehow make that parent Ned or Brandon it has to be Lyanna. R+L=J still is the most plausible option IMO by far.

Also the age would be off.

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I am all for toying with child-switching and twin theories and all that. There also is no reason to not occasionally try to poke holes into R+L=J. That's not a holy dogma or anything.

Nevertheless: when I was playing with this very same thought I had to quickly lay it to rest because 1) Jon is described as looking very 'starkish' and 2) Jon is a warg like the rest of the Starks. I think we can rule out that he has gotten these traits from Elia of Dorne. A Stark has to be one of his parents. So unless you somehow make that parent Ned or Brandon it has to be Lyanna. R+L=J still is the most plausible option IMO by far.

Also the age would be off.

That pretty much seals it.

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What if Aegon and Jon are twins? Ned took Jon, someone else took Aegon.

I also think it's possible that Jon is the real Aegon based of Dany's HotU vision, and Ned changed his name to Jon to make a Stark/Snow out of him. I think that is very possible actually.

I think this is a big indicator that the Aegon in question isn't the real Aegon. Rhaegar calls him the prince that was promised in the vision, and I do believe that it has to be Jon. The title of the book series also alludes to Rhaegar's harp song being very important (the one he plays after calling the baby the prince that was promised.) And we know Jon is ice and fire, so... fAegon. I'm sure it won't matter though, and fAegon will sit the iron throne while Jon sits on the more important throne, keeping peace between humanity, ice, and fire.

What Rhaegar believes, doesn't have to be the truth. it is entirely possible that Rhaegar was wrong, and that while he believed that Aegon was tptwp, it actually is Jon, for example.

Aegon had silver hair, and the woman in the vision has been confirmed to have been Elia, so the child won't have been Jon. Aegon is also said to have Targaryen coloring, and we know Jon doesn't have that.

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Heh, I couldn't agree more. My rank speculation on this really just comes from my not buying Varys' speech to the dying Kevan one bit. I think it stinks to high heaven. You see, I can only think of two reasons why Varys would give that speech: 1) Martin wanted to use that opportunity for exposition for the audience or 2) the speech really wasn't meant for Kevan at all but for the other ears present - the Little Birds. Since I don't believe Martin would engage in exposition like that (I think it's too "mustache-twirling villain"-y and I can't think of another instance like that in the books) and I have developed a healthy distrust of anything presented obviously in ASoIaF, I'm inclined toward option 2.

Then, the question for me becomes: why would Varys want the Little Birds to hear him extoll the virtues of Aegon? My speculative answer is: because the Little Birds could be spying not only for Varys but on him for Illyrio (who supplies them, of course). Then, the next question is: but why would Varys want Ilyrio to hear reports of Varys' devotion to Aegon? My speculative answer is: because he's sending misinformation to Illyrio - else why do it at all? Then, my extremely flimsy, speculative conclusion is that Varys would want to do this because he's thinking of making a break of sorts from Illyrio's plan in favor of Dany :dunno:

I'm the first to admit that it's very, very flimsy and really just my speculation and "gut feeling" but, what the hell, that's why we're here, right? ;)

The first option (exposition) does not make sense because Varys didnot say anything the readers did not already know by the end of ADwD.

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Great work! Here's my current ranking (subject to change lol):

1. Aegon is real – 10%
2. Aegon is from R+L – <1%
3. Aegon is a BF – 25%
4. Aegon is the son of one or two known characters other than Rhaegar – <1%
5. Aegon is a lowborn – 65%

I think Varys is a psychopath who is playing with Kevan in the final scene. I mean, he's talking about why he chose to murder him with a crossbow, as if he were explaining his choice of outfit for a special occasion. Maybe there's some additional advantage to his trolling, as many have suggested, but I don't think it's even necessary. Varys toys with Kevan and then lets his creepy mute children with knives surround him and finish him off. Even setting aside the obscene "for the realm" spiel, it's a murder staged to maximize the victim's trauma and horror.

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The first option (exposition) does not make sense because Varys didnot say anything the readers did not already know by the end of ADwD.

Pretty much agreed except for the possibility that Martin was confirming for the readers that Varys really is Team fAegon (I believe he's not Rhaegar's son but Illyrio's and Sera's - who is a Blackfyre descendant). However, I also don't believe this to be the case because, to me, that's not what I believe to be Martin's style because it would come across as very clumsy writing. Basically, I don't buy that scene as actually being simply as presented, I feel there's something more going on there, and I look forward to learning if I'm right or wrong about that (and a great many other things ;))

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Great work! Here's my current ranking (subject to change lol):

1. Aegon is real – 10%

2. Aegon is from R+L – <1%

3. Aegon is a BF – 25%

4. Aegon is the son of one or two known characters other than Rhaegar – <1%

5. Aegon is a lowborn – 65%

I think Varys is a psychopath who is playing with Kevan in the final scene. I mean, he's talking about why he chose to murder him with a crossbow, as if he were explaining his choice of outfit for a special occasion. Maybe there's some additional advantage to his trolling, as many have suggested, but I don't think it's even necessary. Varys toys with Kevan and then lets his creepy mute children with knives surround him and finish him off. Even setting aside the obscene "for the realm" spiel, it's a murder staged to maximize the victim's trauma and horror.

Only 1%? :P

Here are some possible clues to R+L=A(+J) in the books:

1.) In ADwD, Tyrion makes fun of Young Griff's hair color. Young Griff defends himself by saying "I dye my hair in memory of her (his mother.)" Blue, the color of Young Griff's hair, is a color that is commonly associated with Lyanna, via the Blue Rose.

2.) Foster father name parallel: Aegon shares his name with Jon Connington while in hiding: Griff and Young Griff. Jon Snow shares his real name with him. Both boys share their name with Connington in some way.

3.) Griff's first appearance in the story features him wearing a wolf-skin cloak:

Griff’s cloak was made from the hide and head of a red wolf of the Rhoyne. (ADwD, Tyrion III)

Not only does Griff wear this cloak in Tyrion's first POV, but in every single one of Tyrion's POVs on the Shy Maid thereafter, as well as in the POV chapter "The Lost Lord." The cloak is "of the Rhoyne." With the Rhoyne, we associate Nymeria and the importance of the female/mother. Just as a spear (Martell) piercing the sun (Nymeria and the Rhoynar) symbolizes a Martell-Nymeria union, so would a "red wolf" symbolize a Targaryen-Stark union - red from the Targaryen dragon and a wolf from the Stark direwolf. There's also the symbolism of Rhoynish animals being the children of "Mother Rhoyne." The chapter when Tyrion defeats Haldon Halfmaester after wagering for secrets, the Shy Maid is rocked by the sudden appearance of gigantic turtle.

"A turtle," said Tyrion. "A turtle bigger than this boat."

"It was him," cried Yandry. "The Old Man of the River."

And why not? Tyrion grinned. Gods and wonders always appear, to attend the birth of kings.

(ADwD, Tyrion IV)

In the context of R+L=A+J and the "red wolf of the Rhoyne," this scene emphasizes the son of a mother - the mother of the Old Man of the River was Mother Rhoyne; the mother of the "red wolf" was Lyanna.

4.) Per A Food Code of Ice and Fire, pike symbolize womenly deception. Young Griff has been raised (prepared) as Elia's son (lemons). The latter (the lemons) is the deception. The hint to the truth is given in the very next sentence.

By the time Griff appeared on deck, the pike was spitting and sizzling over the brazier whilst Ysilla hovered over it with a lemon, squeezing. The sellsword wore his mail and wolfskin cloak, soft leather gloves, dark woolen breeches. (ADwD, Tyrion VI)

5.) The text gives a subtle hint that Connington knows something about R+L=son(s):

"No man could have asked for a worthier son," Griff said, "but the lad is not of my blood, and his name is not Griff. My lords, I give you Aegon Targaryen, firstborn son of Rhaegar, Prince of Dragonstone, by Princess Elia of Dorne … soon, with your help, to be Aegon, the Sixth of His Name, King of Andals, the Rhoynar, and the First Men, and Lord of the Seven Kingdoms." (ADwD, The Lost Lord)

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I've always thought there is no way to truly prove once and for all (short of GRRM saying so) that Aegon is real or fake. The people of Westeros will be the ones who accept him as a true Targaryen or spurn him as a Blackfyre or some other pretender. Arriving with The Golden Company might not be his best bet to convince them he is indeed Rhaegar's son.



The Golden Company was founded by Aegor "Bittersteel" Rivers, who supported his half-brother Daemon Waters in the First Blackfyre Rebellion. Daemon took the surname Blackfyre from the family sword given to him by their father Aegon IV. BIttersteel also led the Golden Company against the Targaryens in the 3rd and 4th Blackfyre Rebellions. The 5th Blackfyre Pretender, Maelys the Monstrous, was the leader of the Golden Company. And not to mention that for the most part the company is made up of exiled Westerosi lords and their descendants.



By trying to conquer Westeros with the Golden Company, Aegon VI is already setting himself up to look like a false Targaryen. There are still plenty of people from Westeros who remember the last Blackfyre Rebellion. Barristan Selmy, Brynden Tully, and Septon Meribald to name a few.Tywin, Aerys II, and Seffon Baratheon were all present in the war as well, who would have passed on stories to their children of the War of the Ninepenny Kings. That would mean Jaime, Tyrion, and Stannis at least have a basic knowledge of the histories of war in the Seven Kingdoms enough to know that the Golden Company has always supported the black dragon.



So when Jaime and Stannis and all the smallfolk who remember the past see the Golden Company invading Westeros, they aren't going to think a Targaryen has come home. They're going to think another pretender has invaded, a Blackfyre Pretender.


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  • 1 month later...

Aegon literally was a mummer (disguised as Young Griff) when the 'mummer's dragon' 'prophecy' was made.

 

I know the obvious meaning is often unpopular when a more roundabout one is available. That does not mean the obvious meaning is necessarily wrong.

 

The term 'mummer's dragon' really is no evidence either way since it can be understood in a way that makes sense whether Young Griff is the real Aegon or not.

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I've always thought there is no way to truly prove once and for all (short of GRRM saying so) that Aegon is real or fake. The people of Westeros will be the ones who accept him as a true Targaryen or spurn him as a Blackfyre or some other pretender. Arriving with The Golden Company might not be his best bet to convince them he is indeed Rhaegar's son.

 

The Golden Company was founded by Aegor "Bittersteel" Rivers, who supported his half-brother Daemon Waters in the First Blackfyre Rebellion. Daemon took the surname Blackfyre from the family sword given to him by their father Aegon IV. BIttersteel also led the Golden Company against the Targaryens in the 3rd and 4th Blackfyre Rebellions. The 5th Blackfyre Pretender, Maelys the Monstrous, was the leader of the Golden Company. And not to mention that for the most part the company is made up of exiled Westerosi lords and their descendants.

 

By trying to conquer Westeros with the Golden Company, Aegon VI is already setting himself up to look like a false Targaryen. There are still plenty of people from Westeros who remember the last Blackfyre Rebellion. Barristan Selmy, Brynden Tully, and Septon Meribald to name a few.Tywin, Aerys II, and Seffon Baratheon were all present in the war as well, who would have passed on stories to their children of the War of the Ninepenny Kings. That would mean Jaime, Tyrion, and Stannis at least have a basic knowledge of the histories of war in the Seven Kingdoms enough to know that the Golden Company has always supported the black dragon.

 

So when Jaime and Stannis and all the smallfolk who remember the past see the Golden Company invading Westeros, they aren't going to think a Targaryen has come home. They're going to think another pretender has invaded, a Blackfyre Pretender.

 

but it's understood by everyone that the last of the Blackfyre Pretenders(Maelys) was killed by Barristan.

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So when Jaime and Stannis and all the smallfolk who remember the past see the Golden Company invading Westeros, they aren't going to think a Targaryen has come home. They're going to think another pretender has invaded, a Blackfyre Pretender.

 

No one is going to think of the Blackfyre's because they are dead and irrelevant. Tyrion doesn't think of the blackfyres at al because he knows they are dead. Randyll Tarly or Mace Tyrell or anyone else at the small council never once mentioned the Blackfyres. So this assumption that everyone's going to think he's a BF needs to die.

 

Everyone is going to assume he's fake anyway, so it makes zero sense to disguise a BF as a Targaryen pretender for the sake of a few Dornish swords. I

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I am all for toying with child-switching and twin theories and all that. There also is no reason to not occasionally try to poke holes into R+L=J. That's not a holy dogma or anything.
 
Nevertheless: when I was playing with this very same thought I had to quickly lay it to rest because 1) Jon is described as looking very 'starkish' and 2) Jon is a warg like the rest of the Starks. I think we can rule out that he has gotten these traits from Elia of Dorne. A Stark has to be one of his parents. So unless you somehow make that parent Ned or Brandon it has to be Lyanna. R+L=J still is the most plausible option IMO by far.
 
Also the age would be off.


I would like to point that Bloodraven was a skinchanger even though he was Valyrian and Riverlander mix. Yes, Riverlander, after so many millennia the Blackwoods have only the religion of a Northerner. And that is the point, Old Gods are far more likely to be become skinchanger than anyone else. Possible the only ones that can become.
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Honestly one of the best laid out threads I've ever seen on here. Great job of using actual text evidence for and against.

Personally I vote for him actually being Aegon. I've always argued that there is only going to be one "main" character with a hidden parentage backstory and like you I weigh the evidence for each theory and choose which one I think is most likely. For me it's Jon, but regardless the symmetry of a secret Targ being found out and someone who claims to be a Targ who everyone thinks is lying turning out to actually be a Targ is quality story telling. Having 4 different characters all end up having essentially the same backstory isn't.

You mention that Dunk and Egg are not intended to have foreshadowing for the main series, I would be interested in knowing where that belief stems from? I think Egg's story is interesting foreshadowing of Aegon's. Two future kings who grow up getting to know the smallfolk and understand that kingship is a duty not a privilege. Maybe too on the nose with them both having the same name, but still.

I also like the idea of Dany being convinced he's fake and going to war with him. The idea of Dany killing one the last true Targ's because she's convinced he isn't is just so GRRM IMO.

 

Again, Really good job.

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Regarding possibility no. 2, let assume:

 

  1. Lyanna wasn't kidnapped but went willingly with Rhaegar.
  2. If so, she might have told someone close to her about it.
  3. Brandon and Ned didn't know anything but the kidnap story, so maybe she told Benjen.
  4. Benjen was at Winterfell throughout the war.
  5. She might have used a messenger - who she could trust - to communicate with him.
  6. Ashara Dayne is the sister of Rhaegar best friend, Arthur Dayne.
  7. Rhaegar might have trusted her to be the messenger.
  8. If Ashara did get pregnant by a stark, it could have been Benjen.
  9. Lyanna gives birth at TOJ.
  10. Ned promises to keep the baby safe, by delivering him to Ashara who in turn takes him to Essos.
  11. In order to keep it a secret, Ashara fakes her death and takes a new identity – Presumably Septa Lemore.
  12. GRRM doesn't describe her eye's color because he doesn’t want to reveal her identity yet at that point of the story.
  13. Before she faked her death, she gave Ned her baby to be raised as a Stark (assuming Benjen is the father).
  14. Ned couldn't tell it was Benjen's baby because it would have raised too many questions, therefore he said that Jon is his baby.
  15. Benjen doesn't know that Ashara is alive.
  16. Benjen joins the NW because of his guilt over his part in Lyanna departure of Winterfell and the deaths of Ashara & her.
  17. Lyanna's baby is a bastard, he cannot be king.
  18. Ashara claims that he's Aegon, so when the time is right he could be king.

 

I think it is plausible that R+L=A & B+A=J.

 

P.S.

Sorry for any grammar mistakes, English isn't my native language.

 

Good job with the English then. 

Issues: Ned pretending Jon is his when's it's Benjen's causes him a lot of grief for no real reason. Why not tell Benjen he has a son? What does he gain by lying? One of the big issues I have with Ned lying about Jon being a bastard for me has always been the risk involved. I've always been shocked that not once has a character questioned where Jon came from, or seen how conveniently he appears, specifically in respect to Lyanna. Robert knows that Lyanna had sex (whether consensual or rape) and he knows Ned returned form the south with her body and a boy and never once suspects that the two are connected? Seems fishy.

So I'm on board with Ned lying to protect Lyanna's baby, but there is no reason to protect Ashara's or Benjen's or Brandon's. It would make his life easier all the way around if he could say Jon was the product of one of those union's.

Second issue: Same issue I have with a lot of the Ashara theories. Her house is loyal to the Targ's and she is bff's with Elia. Someone would notice the daughter of a powerful house paling around with the rebels and it would be noted.

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But Barristan believes she may have leapt to her death, in part, out of grief for the man that dishonored her. Why would she grieve for Aerys, especially if he raped her?

 

This sparked me to wonder if Ashara may have had an "inappropriate" relationship with Authur. Not much evidence to support it, but the timing of Ned telling her that Arthur is dead and then her committing suicide always struck me as curious. Again, I know there isn't much to support it. It was a passing idea more than anything else.

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Second issue: Same issue I have with a lot of the Ashara theories. Her house is loyal to the Targ's and she is bff's with Elia. Someone would notice the daughter of a powerful house paling around with the rebels and it would be noted.

 

I am just wondering why people say Ashara is Elia's friend. 

Is there a quote or something?

I only know she is the companion of Elia for a few years in KL. Not necessary as a friend at all.

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