Aegon VI's Identity: Compiling the Evidence

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Regarding Aegon's hair, it's not completely impossible that he secretly has dark hair. We have already been introduced to the notion that he dyes his hair to conceal his identity. His Tyroshi blue allegedly hides light hair, but he could also just as easily hide dark hair and perhaps die his hair light (Varys would presumably be familiar with such simple disguises).

When the blue dye comes out, Jon Connington would notice such a difference.. ;) And Aegon himself doesn't doubt his identity, so he can't be involved in any such conspiracy.

[Mitbert Strangejoy]

When the blue dye comes out, Jon Connington would notice such a difference.. ;) And Aegon himself doesn't doubt his identity, so he can't be involved in any such conspiracy.

Yeah, Jon Con and Aegon would pretty much have to be in on it. And you're right, they show no indication of doubting Aegon's identity.

[Chebyshov]

Interesting stuff but I'm not sure Varys and Illyrio's motivation for doing all that they seem to be doing is adequately explored. That's why I think fAegon has to be either a Targaryen or a Blackfyre (and I think he's a Blackfyre through his mother Sera and, thus, that would make Illyrio his father). I don't believe Varys and Illyrio are simply in the business of King-making because, of course, there would be far simpler, more direct ways of achieving that. No, they want, for whatever reasons, to set things right, to restore things to how they were and how they should be.

Now, this is just some speculation on my part, but I also believe Varys and Illyrio are about to have a falling out because I believe Illyrio is Team Blackfyre while I believe Varys is Team Targaryen ;)

I'm not sure what would be simpler and more direct than raising a child-prince (or child to pose as a prince) with a claim to the throne and mold him in the image of a ruler that you want. I think in their eyes, this is a ruler they can control to some extent. Varys always talks about for the good of a realm, and here he has someone that has been taught to understand the plight of the commoners, the language of foreigners, and important history lessons.

Not saying you're necessarily wrong though, of course. Though if Varys and Illyrio had a falling out, what was with their meetings in AGoT? Are they trying to work against each other's interests? And if Varys was Team Targaryen, why did he betray Rhaegar and whisper to Aerys about a potential coup when Rhaegar likely would have been a good, strong king?

[Prince of the North]

I'm not sure what would be simpler and more direct than raising a child-prince (or child to pose as a prince) with a claim to the throne and mold him in the image of a ruler that you want. I think in their eyes, this is a ruler they can control to some extent. Varys always talks about for the good of a realm, and here he has someone that has been taught to understand the plight of the commoners, the language of foreigners, and important history lessons.

I am thinking, if one is only interested in being the "power behind the throne", there would be faster, more direct ways to do it. Such as, simply go about gaining influence with someone already in power or finding the next likely candidate and go about getting them on the throne. No, with these two that's not enough. They care not only about being the power behind the throne, etc. but also just who, specifically, is on the throne.

You may be right, and playing the long game they seem to be playing may be a smart way to go but it seems to me it's an awful long time to wait and effort to put in for a very uncertain end.

Not saying you're necessarily wrong though, of course. Though if Varys and Illyrio had a falling out, what was with their meetings in AGoT? Are they trying to work against each other's interests? And if Varys was Team Targaryen, why did he betray Rhaegar and whisper to Aerys about a potential coup when Rhaegar likely would have been a good, strong king?

I speculate that Varys and Illyrio were working together until recently in the story (specifically, right up until the dragons were born). Also, what you say about Varys whispering in Aerys's ear about Rhaegar possibly overthrowing him is not confirmed yet is it?

[Chebyshov]

You may be right, and playing the long game they seem to be playing may be a smart way to go but it seems to me it's an awful long time to wait and effort to put in for a very uncertain end.

No argument there, but not everyone can adopt LF's shoot first, aim second method.

I speculate that Varys and Illyrio were working together until recently in the story (specifically, right up until the dragons were born). Also, what you say about Varys whispering in Aerys's ear about Rhaegar possibly overthrowing him is not confirmed yet is it?

True, that may have simply been speculation on Barristan's part. But we do know for certain that Varys counseled Aerys not to open the gates to Tywin following the Trident, so he's at least shown some concern for the Mad King in the past. So what Barristan thinks wouldn't be out of character in that case. However, there's no denying that Varys is one of the most opaque characters in the series, so his true motives are certainly unknown.

[Prince of the North]

True, that may have simply been speculation on Barristan's part. But we do know for certain that Varys counseled Aerys not to open the gates to Tywin following the Trident, so he's at least shown some concern for the Mad King in the past. So what Barristan thinks wouldn't be out of character in that case. However, there's no denying that Varys is one of the most opaque characters in the series, so his true motives are certainly unknown.

Heh, I couldn't agree more. My rank speculation on this really just comes from my not buying Varys' speech to the dying Kevan one bit. I think it stinks to high heaven. You see, I can only think of two reasons why Varys would give that speech: 1) Martin wanted to use that opportunity for exposition for the audience or 2) the speech really wasn't meant for Kevan at all but for the other ears present - the Little Birds. Since I don't believe Martin would engage in exposition like that (I think it's too "mustache-twirling villain"-y and I can't think of another instance like that in the books) and I have developed a healthy distrust of anything presented obviously in ASoIaF, I'm inclined toward option 2.

Then, the question for me becomes: why would Varys want the Little Birds to hear him extoll the virtues of Aegon? My speculative answer is: because the Little Birds could be spying not only for Varys but on him for Illyrio (who supplies them, of course). Then, the next question is: but why would Varys want Ilyrio to hear reports of Varys' devotion to Aegon? My speculative answer is: because he's sending misinformation to Illyrio - else why do it at all? Then, my extremely flimsy, speculative conclusion is that Varys would want to do this because he's thinking of making a break of sorts from Illyrio's plan in favor of Dany :dunno:

I'm the first to admit that it's very, very flimsy and really just my speculation and "gut feeling" but, what the hell, that's why we're here, right? ;)

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I believe Aegon VI to be the real deal. I know Varys is the 'Master of Whisperers' but he says he smuggled Aegon VI out and I believe him.

... Why, exactly?

[Hand to King Davos]

Why not? In general, I believe what I am told unless I see a reason not to. There are reasons to believe Varys was lying, but there isn't any definitive proof either way.

Since I don't believe Martin would engage in exposition like that (I think it's too "mustache-twirling villain-y")

I think this was Varys fulfilling the classic serial killer inclination to reveal the plot. Either that, or like you said he was confusing the little birds, although I think tht is for the benefit of Littlefinger, not Ilyrio.

[Rorey Targaryen]

I'm 75% sure that he is Aegon Targaryen VI, trueborn son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Elia Martell.

The other 25% goes to the thinking that he might be a Blackfyre.

[Prince of the North]

Why not? In general, I believe what I am told unless I see a reason not to. There are reasons to believe Varys was lying, but there isn't any definitive proof either way.

I think this was Varys fulfilling the classic serial killer inclination to reveal the plot. Either that, or like you said he was confusing the little birds, although I think tht is for the benefit of Littlefinger, not Ilyrio.

Of course, we don't have any proof yet and we won't have any until Martin tells us ;) But, as you say, if Varys was on the up and up with that speech to Kevan it would be the "classic serial killer inclination" of revealing the plot and I just don't believe Martin would do that. That, to me, would be a profound departure from the way Martin has written the story thus far.

Also, that's an interesting theory about the Little Birds spying for Littlefinger as well but I just don't see it right now. I think Martin would have hinted at or foreshadowed that they were also Littlefinger's earlier :dunno:

[bent branch]

In regards to how much we can trust Barristan's version of events, I noticed this when I was re-reading Dany (ADWD-Chapter 43):

And Daario Naharis is only a sellsword, not fit to buckle on the golden spurs of even a landed knight. "And my father? Was there some woman he loved better than his queen?"

Ser Barristan shifted in the saddle. "Not...not loved. Mayhaps wanted is a better word, but...it was only kitchen gossip, the whispers of washerwomen and stableboys..."

So Barristan had learned of the happenings of Tywin and Joanna's wedding night second hand. And then in Chapter 67, Barristan ruminates thus:

...Plots, ploys, whispers, lies, secrets within secrets, and somehow I have become part of them.

Perhaps by now he should have grown used to such things. The Red Keep had its secrets too. Even Rhaegar. The Prince of Dragonstone had never trusted him as he had trusted Arthur Dayne. Harrenhal was proof of that. The year of the false spring.

This suggests that Barristan was never part of any inner circle under Aerys' regime. Therefore, I think it is wisest to treat Barristan's memories as containing an element of truth, while still being mostly gossip. Unless, of course, Barristan openly states that he witnessed an event first hand.

[Fluffy Wascal]

Aerys was too much a coward to be a rapist strange as that may sound...the 'liberties' he took at the bedding were allhe dared.

For a large hunk of his reign 'Griff' was his hand and no way he'd have let a crazy rapist sit the iron throne- unlike Jaime Griff was born to the game and Rhaegar would have had the ironthrone after Aerys unfortuneately choked on a fishbone...Why Tywin Lannister didnt have Aerys married off to Cersei at some point is a subtletly beyond me in the same way I don't understand why Jaquen wanted to take the black then changed his mind

[Fluffy Wascal]

Barristan was head of the Kingsguard and on the small council....he states in later books he lets meetings wash over him but cant imagine that including anything impotant- whichever king was on the iron throne

[mb2518]

Aerys was too much a coward to be a rapist strange as that may sound...the 'liberties' he took at the bedding were allhe dared.

For a large hunk of his reign 'Griff' was his hand and no way he'd have let a crazy rapist sit the iron throne- unlike Jaime Griff was born to the game and Rhaegar would have had the ironthrone after Aerys unfortuneately choked on a fishbone...Why Tywin Lannister didnt have Aerys married off to Cersei at some point is a subtletly beyond me in the same way I don't understand why Jaquen wanted to take the black then changed his mind

People don't give Aerys enough credit. He knew it was a bad idea for the hand and the queen to be of the same non-Targaryen family.

[CharlesW]

Aegon VI, more likely Faegon I.

[Sword of the Morgan]

Very thorough. Nicely done.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Aerys was too much a coward to be a rapist strange as that may sound...the 'liberties' he took at the bedding were allhe dared.

For a large hunk of his reign 'Griff' was his hand and no way he'd have let a crazy rapist sit the iron throne- unlike Jaime Griff was born to the game and Rhaegar would have had the ironthrone after Aerys unfortuneately choked on a fishbone...Why Tywin Lannister didnt have Aerys married off to Cersei at some point is a subtletly beyond me in the same way I don't understand why Jaquen wanted to take the black then changed his mind

Jon Connigton was Hand for a short period of time. Months, only.

When would Tywin have married Cersei to Aerys? Aerys' wife outlived him, and polygamy was on no one's minds (except perhaps on Rhaegars)

[Mithras]

The dwarf pushed his black dragon across a range of mountains. “But what do I know? Your false father is a great lord, and I am just some twisted little monkey man. Still, I’d do things differently.”

That got the boy’s attention. “How differently?”

“If I were you? I would go west instead of east. Land in Dorne and raise my banners.”

Tyrion pushed his black dragon cyvasse piece across a range of mountains. At the same time, he advised fAegon to go to Dorne. fAegon took Storm’s End and it looks like he will go across a range of mountains (the Red Mountains) to make alliance with Dorne, as Tyrion advised.

Black dragon flying over the Red Mountains.

“Come, drink with me,” the fat man said. “A scale from the dragon that burned you, as they say.” He poured for them from a flagon of blackberry wine so sweet that it drew more flies than honey. Tyrion shooed them off with the back of his hand and drank deep. The taste was so cloying that it was all he could do to keep it down. The second cup went down easier, however. Even so, he had no appetite, and when Illyrio offered him a bowl of blackberries in cream he waved it off.

The Blackfyre loyalist in TSS (Lord Osgrey) buried his sons under blackberry bushes. His sons died fighting for the Black Dragon. We have Illyrio drinking blackberry wine and eating creamed blackberries with Tyrion. He says “a scale from the dragon that burned you” while pouring the blackberry wine and I bet this dragon is the Black Dragon.

[Isobel Harper]

I'll admit I'm not the best versed on Aerys but... Wasn't the usual target of his sexual violence Rhaella? Aside from whatever liberties he took at Joanna Lannister's bedding (personally I think he either groped her or tried to burn some part of her, I don't think he raped her), is there anything about him and other women? Honest question, I really don't know about any other women. But it seems more likely he'd burn someone connected to Rhaegar as a message, then go violently rape Rhaella that night.

Before the birth of Viserys, Aerys was known to keep mistresses. After giving birth to Rhaegar, the queen suffered several miscarriages, which he blamed on his wife. He would later blame the death of a young son, Jaehaerys, on the boy's wet nurse and behead her, only to then blame his mistress and her family. They were executed as well. Aerys decided to remain faithful after this and he and Rhaella went on to later have Viserys and Daenerys.

[skycuza]

What if Aegon and Jon are twins? Ned took Jon, someone else took Aegon.

I also think it's possible that Jon is the real Aegon based of Dany's HotU vision, and Ned changed his name to Jon to make a Stark/Snow out of him. I think that is very possible actually.

I think this is a big indicator that the Aegon in question isn't the real Aegon. Rhaegar calls him the prince that was promised in the vision, and I do believe that it has to be Jon. The title of the book series also alludes to Rhaegar's harp song being very important (the one he plays after calling the baby the prince that was promised.) And we know Jon is ice and fire, so... fAegon. I'm sure it won't matter though, and fAegon will sit the iron throne while Jon sits on the more important throne, keeping peace between humanity, ice, and fire.