From Pawn to Slayer: Foreshadowing Sansa

[Modesty Lannister]

The only chance Cersei would have of holding onto power in KL would be taking Mace by surprise. She couldn't muster up enough men to match Mace's forces in the city - but with Robert Strong, the Kettleblacks, Qyburn and whatever forces he can conjure up, and whichever palace guards they can bribe or confuse into joining them, she just might be able to overpower Mace's guards in the Red Keep and take Mace and Margaery hostage in order to control through them the Tyrrell forces in KL.

I totally agree with your every word apart from this.

Kettleblacks work for LF ultimately.

Quburn works for Martells. He cannot wait for her to get Robert Strong out. That would prove to Martell's the head that was sent to them wasn't the Mountain and give them a pretext for a war. She obviously does not realise that.

[Fire Eater]

Would you disagree with me if I stated it was Sunday, May 25, 2014? I bet you would. However, that doesn't bother me at all.

I agree that it is Sunday, May 25, 2014. That argument is disproven, and it has nothing to bear on anything. I don't even know why you brought it up.

- Cersei is politically discredited after her walk of shame

- Lannister armies are not what they used to be in the beginning of the war. They lost a lot of men, they are tired and they do not have a Lannister commander any more

- Tyrell forces are fresh and hardly used. They just started to warm up in Dragonstone

- Tyrells are Targ loyalists

-Martells are Targ loyalists

Baratheons apart from Robert were Targ loyalists. Stannis is a Targ loyalist

-But the TWoW spoiler shows that she does regain the Regency, that actually has textual backing if you looked

-the Lannister armies are still bound to serve Cersei, and they are led by Daven Lannister

-Targ loyalists? So loyal that Mace thought of marrying his daughter to the Baratheons who overthrew the Targs. Mace also opposes Dany, saying she is mad as her father. Mace sat on his ass throughout Robert's Rebellion besieging SE. He only needed a token force to do that, and if he was serious, he would have pursued Robert. Mace's daughter is still married to Tommen, and he received goodies under the Lannisters which also has textual backing.

-I never said anything about the Martells, and I know they will join Aegon.

-Stannis a Targ loyalist? He held out siege against the Targaryens, and went to Dragonstone to seize the last Targaryens for Robert. That is the opposite of a Targaryen loyalist.

- Varys wants Cersei to "rule" because he knows it will be very short-lived and will make his task a piece of cake for the reasons I and other posters have stated.

- LF tells the same thing to Sansa even before Cersei's arrest

I will leave you to ponder this. Try to fit these facts into your vision if you can.

-I think he expects her rule to end when Aegon takes KL.

-I just proved a number of those things weren't facts, but mistaken opinions stated as matter-of-factly. And you said I consistently make statements with no textual backing, no offense. I try to state my predictions as they are, my opinions.

But what if Ned hadn't accused Joffrey of illegitimacy in open court (which he has no tangible evidence of at that time), and just tried to arrest Cersei for refusing to honor the will of Robert that he should take power? Do you think that in that case Cersei would have meekly allowed herself to be arrested by Ned and his eight pathetic guards while she has a hundred Goldcloaks bought and paid for on her side in the throne room, just because if she used them it might not look quite legal? Hell no. Ned was NOT going to be allowed to rule no matter what he said in the court that day.

I never argued against that.

Who in KL would want to fight for Cersei's right to be Tommen's regent anymore? Kevan Lannister told her that he doesn't have enough men in KL to fight even the Sparrows to rescue her from the High Septon. Mace Tyrrel brought HIS larger army with him when he came to support his daughter, and that army's not leaving till Margaery's fate is resolved. Of the other armed groups in KL - the Sparrows and the Warrior's Sons would hardly support the woman the Faith Militant has condemned as a Whore of Babylon if she tried to rule the country again. And the Gold Cloaks will support the man who pays them - and currently, it's Mace Tyrell who has the money, AND their current commander is one of his men.

There is power in a king's decree. Mace would likely try to remove her legally. The HS won't declare war on Tommen just for renaming his mother, Regent. The Crown pays the goldcloaks, and it isn't even mentioned that Mace pays them. Humfrey Waters isn't one of his men, and it was Pycelle and Ser Harys who promoted him to that position.

Mace holds all the cards in military power in KL. So if Cersei openly prances up to Mace waving a paper declaring her the Regent, Mace CAN openly snort, tear the paper in half, and order her thrown in a tower cell, then send Margaery to dear tractable Tommen to get him to sign and seal another paper rescinding Cersei's regency. Mace can then appoint Lancel to some place on the council to appease the Lannisters' immediate desire to maintain power and influence in KL, then send a ravenmail to all remaining Lannisters explaining that Cersei took power for about twenty minutes after the mysterious death of Kevan, but the King immediately saw the error of his ways and rescinded the Regency, and Cersei's being kept in confinement while the death of Kevan is investigated. He could invite any Lannister representatives to aid in the investigation and to check that Cersei is comfortable, and to negotiate other seats of power for themselves. Lancel could countersign his approval.

Mace does have much of the military power, but so did Dany in Meereen, and even she found herself backed into a corner. That is one of the themes of this series, power lies in more than just who holds the swords, or control over brute force, it is something more complex than that. I think you fail to take into account that if Mace does what you propose it would mean blood in the streets of KL, and the Lannisters armies would come to KL no doubt. Mace will effectively have war with the Lannisters. Everyone knows the king is eight, and that Mace would have had Tommen take away the Regency. They would also suspect that Mace has Kevan and Pycelle killed, and is staging a palace coup. Lancel can't serve on small council as he is bound to the Faith, and power doesn't interest him. Mace doesn't want to create a bad public perception, and he would be performing a politically risky move.

According to Kevan's last chapter, Lannister armies are dispersed over the country fighting various enemies, and rapidly melting away under pressure. Are they really going to retreat from all those arenas, suffering losses, and retreat to KL to fight with their last remaining allies, the Tyrrells, for the sake of Cersei? Doing so would ensure Tommen's fall from the throne. And the Lannisters cannot have failed to notice that Cersei was a dangerously incompetent Regent who's shamed the family. If they could come to a civilised agreement with the Tyrells to share Tommen amicably, they would do so as long as Cersei is not publically seen to be mistreated. They will not engage in an unwinnable battle against their last allies just to give Cersei an opportunity to FINISH her destruction of the family, IMO.

They would return as they are honor and duty bound, as Cersei is their liege lord as well as Queen. One could just as easily argue that doing what you propose Mace would would ensure Tommen would fall from the throne, since he initiated the conflict by bearing arms against Cersei. The Lannister men also aren't the deep thinkers you describe.

The only chance Cersei would have of holding onto power in KL would be taking Mace by surprise. She couldn't muster up enough men to match Mace's forces in the city - but with Robert Strong, the Kettleblacks, Qyburn and whatever forces he can conjure up, and whichever palace guards they can bribe or confuse into joining them, she just might be able to overpower Mace's guards in the Red Keep and take Mace and Margaery hostage in order to control through them the Tyrrell forces in KL.

I don't think she would try a straight military option when she can go for plain legal mechanisms and legitimate channels. The king's decree is law as Mace knows, and if he violates the king's decree he would be risking being charged with treason against the king he backs.

IIRC, Mace is notorious for being an incompetent soldier. She doesn't need him to lead HG forces - she needs him to stay forcibly on her side and issuing orders in her favor. If she lets Mace go, one of his more competent bannermen would talk Mace into attacking her to rescue Margaery instead of dealing with her. If she lets Margaery go, Margaery could rally forces into rescuing her father instead of treating with his captor.

I don't see it mentioned that is notorious for being incompetent. He only fought in a few battles, the BoBW and there wasn't enough to mark him as incompetent. One of his more competent bannermen in talking to Mace to attacking to rescue Margaery would be a failure to grasp the rules of hostages, if Mace attacks it means Margaery dies.

[Modesty Lannister]

post 202

Lol. Lol. And lol. If you actually spent some time understanding what is written in the books rather than arguing aggressively and endlessly with no quotes, no textual proof and nothing, but your fan fic belief, there would be a point in debating with you. Since that is not the case, I definitely don't see any reason for continuing this pointlessness.

[Fire Eater]

Lol. Lol. And lol. If you actually spent some time understanding what is written in the books rather than arguing aggressively and endlessly with no quotes, no textual proof and nothing, but your fan fic belief, there would be a point in debating with you. Since that is not the case, I definitely don't see any reason for continuing this pointlessness.

Now you are being a bit obnoxious and disrespectful, as well as engaging in the logical fallacy of ad hominem. There is textual proof I actually pointed out against a number of your points, and from what it looks like you didn't read my post carefully, no offense. You also provided poins that clearly went against the text like Stannis being a Targaryen supporter. How do you know you are right when TWoW hasn't even come out to verify your claims? The truth is you don't know, no more than I do.

If you want to engage in an intelligent, respectful debate regarding where the series is headed, I'm all for that, but if you want to be condescending and disrespectful, do it on somebody else's time as I don't have time for it.

Also, you got the definition of fan fiction wrong. Fan fiction is a separate work outside the canon of the book while what I am talking about is a theory about what may happen later in the canon of the series. Just because you disagree with a theory doesn't make it fan fiction.

[The Mother of The Others]

Personal holocaust, check. That's already done with, so ordinarily you'd say Sansa has no need of any more pain sprinkled atop her plot pudding. But the problem is she's too content to lay low and not act on all of her built up.... build-up. And this will go on until something changes the status quo. So the death of Robert will be the wakeup call. That'll be the thing that snaps her out of stayin' alive, stayin' alive mode and shifts her into make it count, get it done mode. And that's what'll take her back to the center of the board, back to KL, with a will. <---of course, this was speculative, but we shouldn't have to apologize for that here, for the same reason it's pointless to start every opinion with, "In my opinion," because of course what we all have to say here is opinion.

Also, you get the definition of fan fiction wrong. Fan fiction is a separate work outside the canon of the book while what I am talking about is a theory about what may happen later in the canon of the series. Just because you disagree with a theory doesn't make it fan fiction.

I applaud how this site treats speculations as a good thing, an interesting thing, something worthy of discussion and being read. Some corners of the internet are filled with pharisees who try to shut down these kinds of topics and turn speculation into a bad word, as if anything that's not already canon causes them pain and must be demonized. In other words these folks have no creative side and they don't want to be reminded that other people do. So they try to carve out an artificial niche for themselves high on the mountaintop next to the author by devoting themselves to copying the author's words verbatim into a wiki like they're some kind of Moses figure no one requested, and then they go to work defending the purity of their chosen holy text's chapter and verse against any lowborn hooligan who dares to wonder aloud how the story might go. There can be no voice but the god's/author's!!!!

Well, thankfully, here we have something better than that arrangement. We all basically acknowledge the author as a god, but then on top of that we also speak freely about the possibilities for where the story might lead as if our voices are worth hearing too. So we sometimes get these theories that grow like trees rooted in the existing text but with branches branching out into fan fiction territory. And I love it. Because we're fans and writers so this speculation is what makes a chatboard worthwhile in between books. The canon is stagnant right now. Why stare only at the wiki when we already mostly know what it contains? That's like watching grass grow. The pharisees are above reproach only because they haven't actually contributed anything! So let the What Ifs flow!

[Mladen]

Lol. Lol. And lol. If you actually spent some time understanding what is written in the books rather than arguing aggressively and endlessly with no quotes, no textual proof and nothing, but your fan fic belief, there would be a point in debating with you. Since that is not the case, I definitely don't see any reason for continuing this pointlessness.

LOL. LOL. AND LOL... Fire Eater, as much as I disagree with him on this, responded on your post with more than enough textual evidence. Yeah, we shouldn't keep this pointlessness, especially when people are being wrongfully accused of not providing textual evidence to the idea that Stannis is Targ loyalist. LOL...

So, before accusing someone of fanfic around here, check the textual evidence. For in this case (Martells, Tyrells, Stannis? being Targ loyalists) Fire Eater has provided enough to dispute this claims.

[mambru]

I totally agree with your every word apart from this.

Kettleblacks work for LF ultimately.

They weren't working for LF when they started carrying out Cersei's more idiotic orders, like Pope-murdering and Margaery-framing. LF expressed annoyance at how fast Cersei was managing to ruin the kingdom and how it was forcing him to speed up all his own planning and messing with his schedule...and Cersei's buffoonish scheming with the Kettleblacks was PART of that rapid slide. The Kettleblacks were getting too ambitious and reaching for more than LF was likely to give them. Now they're caught. LF isn't likely to lift a finger to help them. The only way they're likely to escape the Wall or a death sentence in KL is if Cersei orders their release in exchange for their armed help in taking Mace and Margaery. They're likely to cooperate - at least long enough to unobtrusively arrange an escape for themselves if things go pear-shaped (as they undoubtedly will).

[mambru]

There is power in a king's decree. Mace would likely try to remove her legally. The HS won't declare war on Tommen just for renaming his mother, Regent. The Crown pays the goldcloaks, and it isn't even mentioned that Mace pays them.

You speak of "power" like it's some mystical intangible quality that will radiate outward from the Tommen-stamped Regency decree and protect Cersei with a magical force-field. But power needs to be enacted and embodied by people, or it doesn't exist. A king's decree is nothing but a piece of paper by itself - as Ned found out. If Cersei is to actually wield power, she needs a large quantity of people willing to obey her orders and fight for her. Cersei does not have those people. You can't point to a single influential person with soldiers at his command who'd be willing to follow Cersei at this point in KL. Mace Tyrrell has an army. There is no Lannister army in KL.

Similarly, you speak of "the Crown" paying the goldcloaks' salaries, as if "the Crown" were some Midas spell that conjured up endless gold out of nothing with no human intervention. But the books have told us over and over that the Crown is broke. Who is the only person with power left in KL who has money enough to pay the goldcloaks' salaries? Mace Tyrrell. If that's not clear enough, Kevan gloomily thinks to himself in his last chapter that Mace has packed the Gold Cloaks with a hundred of his own Highgarden men and refused to allow any westermen in to balance out his disproportionate power there.

So if Cersei gets Tommen to stamp a paper saying she's Regent, who is she going to call on in KL to defend her rights to that position who has MORE men than Mace Tyrrell? If Mace sneers at her decree, has his men toss Cersei in a cell, and sends Margaery to Tommen to get another paper stamped rescinding the Regency decree, who in King's Landing is going to rise up and revolt simply because they think that Decree A signed twenty minutes earlier MUST be more valid than Decree B? Who in KL cares enough about Cersei's rights AND has enough men to make a difference? Please be specific.

Lancel can't serve on small council as he is bound to the Faith, and power doesn't interest him.

Is there a rule in the books that clearly says that he can't? Baelor was a septon and KING. Even if power doesn't interest him for his own sake, Lancel belongs to the High Sparrow body and soul. If the High Sparrow told him to wield power on the Council for the Faith's sake, he would do so. And since the High Sparrow would definitely prefer his own pious Lannister protege to be in power rather than Cersei the Whore of Babylon, he WOULD encourage Lancel to take power in the Council and do everything he can to make sure Cersei stays knitting in a penitent's cell where he thinks she belongs.

[voodooqueen126]

Shadrich and the other hedge knights with him will promise her to take her to White Harbour but they will betray her once on the ship and sail to KL.

and as soon as Sansa arrives in KL, Cersei will send her to Qyburn. Sansa may be a valuable hostage against the Northern forces (which is why Tywin didn't kill her) but Cersei is no Tywin.

[Fire Eater]

You speak of "power" like it's some mystical intangible quality that will radiate outward from the Tommen-stamped Regency decree and protect Cersei with a magical force-field. But power needs to be enacted and embodied by people, or it doesn't exist. A king's decree is nothing but a piece of paper by itself - as Ned found out. If Cersei is to actually wield power, she needs a large quantity of people willing to obey her orders and fight for her. Cersei does not have those people. You can't point to a single influential person with soldiers at his command who'd be willing to follow Cersei at this point in KL. Mace Tyrrell has an army. There is no Lannister army in KL.

No, I remember Varys's riddle, power lies where men believe it lies. Mace supports Tommen, and tearing up a king's decree is an act of rebellion. The majority, including Mace, believe in the power of a king's decree. He also doesn't want to risk a violent confrontation with the Lannisters with enough enemies as it is. He also still is Hand with most of the small council made up of Tyrell men. I think he would likely just tolerate her. There are Lannister men in KL, and Cersei is mother to the king.

Also, there is difference that you have failed to note between Ned's case and Cersei's. The decree Ned had come from a king who was dead, and there was a new king on the IT to rescind it while Cersei's decree would be from a king who is still living.

You also need to remember that the TWoW spoiler chapter proves that Cersei does regain the Regency. She sent Harys Swyft to Braavos. Cersei is named Queen Regent again, so she likely does use a decree.

Similarly, you speak of "the Crown" paying the goldcloaks' salaries, as if "the Crown" were some Midas spell that conjured up endless gold out of nothing with no human intervention. But the books have told us over and over that the Crown is broke. Who is the only person with power left in KL who has money enough to pay the goldcloaks' salaries? Mace Tyrrell. If that's not clear enough, Kevan gloomily thinks to himself in his last chapter that Mace has packed the Gold Cloaks with a hundred of his own Highgarden men and refused to allow any westermen in to balance out his disproportionate power there.

Except you have no proof that Mace Tyrell is paying their salaries, and there is a little gold left to ensure the functioning of the administration. Also, you are forgetting that Kevan could have brought gold as well, he is a member of the richest family in Westeros. Kevan said simply that there were Tyrell men in the goldcloaks he mentioned nothing that hinted at Mace Tyrell paying their salaries. The Crown pays their salaries.

So if Cersei gets Tommen to stamp a paper saying she's Regent, who is she going to call on in KL to defend her rights to that position who has MORE men than Mace Tyrrell? If Mace sneers at her decree, has his men toss Cersei in a cell, and sends Margaery to Tommen to get another paper stamped rescinding the Regency decree, who in King's Landing is going to rise up and revolt simply because they think that Decree A signed twenty minutes earlier MUST be more valid than Decree B? Who in KL cares enough about Cersei's rights AND has enough men to make a difference? Please be specific.

A king's decree is law in Westeros. I think I still need to remind you of Dany. She had three dragons and an army of Unsullied, and if that's not enough, the majority of the Mereenese population, but she found herself backed into a corner. Military power is not the sole form of power, especially in Westeros. There are also laws. If he tosses Cersei into a cell the Western lords will come to KL, you know that. I don't think you grasp the delicate political situation, no offense. Besides, how does Mace know Tommen won't punish Mace for imprisoning or killing his mother when he comes of age? It would also be tantamount to saying that he is seizing power from the Lannisters, especially with Kevan and Pycelle's deaths. The realm would care about Mace's actions, and legitimacy matters a great deal in politics.

Is there a rule in the books that clearly says that he can't? Baelor was a septon and KING. Even if power doesn't interest him for his own sake, Lancel belongs to the High Sparrow body and soul. If the High Sparrow told him to wield power on the Council for the Faith's sake, he would do so. And since the High Sparrow would definitely prefer his own pious Lannister protege to be in power rather than Cersei the Whore of Babylon, he WOULD encourage Lancel to take power in the Council and do everything he can to make sure Cersei stays knitting in a penitent's cell where he thinks she belongs.

Warrior's Sons, like the NW, foreswear everything: lands, titles, wives, children, etc. Baelor was refused by his father to become a septon, and likely didn't become one until after he was crowned. The HS doesn't need Lancel to babysit Cersei as she has septas attending her. I doubt Mace would even invite Lancel onto the small council, since when has he ever tried to offer the Lannisters anything, all he doe sis take.

[mambru]

No, I remember Varys's riddle, power lies where men believe it lies.

You're still not being specific about what men would believe power lies with Cersei in KL. It would take an army to defeat Mace Tyrell's army in KL. You can't point to any large group of people in KL who would take up arms in support of Cersei, no matter what decree she was waving around. There is a Tyrell army in KL. There is NO Lannister army. The Sparrows will not follow her. Mace Tyrrell has packed the Gold Cloaks with his own men - and the Gold Cloaks are infinitely bribable and several books ago it was mentioned that the Crown has trouble paying them. There is no fighting force capable of matching Mace's forces who would side with Cersei in KL. Power requires people - and there are none for Cersei.

Mace supports Tommen, and tearing up a king's decree is an act of rebellion. The majority, including Mace, believe in the power of a king's decree.

Do you have proof that Mace has this quasi-religious belief that a parchment signed by a naive eight year old playing with sealing-wax is sacred and can't be countermanded? The small council got Tommen to sign decrees forcing Cersei's stooges the Kettleblacks out of command of the Gold Cloaks and inviting Kevan to assume the Regency. If the small council can play that game, why can't Mace, through Margaery? Cersei convinces the naive Tommen to sign a decree making her Regent. Mace tosses Cersei in a cell and gets Margaery to get Tommen to sign another decree rescinding the Regency. If a king's decree is powerful, now Mace has his own.decree to play with. Explain to me why Mace would think HIS decree was invalid and Cersei's wasn't?

Warrior's Sons, like the NW, foreswear everything: lands, titles, wives, children, etc.

That's not the same thing as being barred from positions of power. The KG is barred from those things, but they still hold a seat on the council.

The HS doesn't need Lancel to babysit Cersei as she has septas attending her.

The HS has septas watching her like a hawk even though she's no longer in power and supposedly off to retirement in Casterley Rock. If she suddenly lurches back into power after he's condemned her as an unfit harlot, he will definitely want her out again, Who better than Lancel to be the Lannister representative to negotiate between Casterley Rock and Highgarden - a LOT better than the Whore of Babylon.

I doubt Mace would even invite Lancel onto the small council, since when has he ever tried to offer the Lannisters anything, all he doe sis take.

Mace knows he needs to share power with SOME Lannister - he had no problem doing so with Kevan. But he'd draw the line at that Lannister being Cersei, after it's clear what one of the three Kettleblacks she admitted to sleeping with was trying to entrap Margaery into adultery - and then when that failed accused her falsely of adultery. It's a lot more "politically risky" to work with a woman who's already tried to kill your daughter.

[Fire Eater]

You're still not being specific about what men would believe power lies with Cersei in KL. It would take an army to defeat Mace Tyrell's army in KL. You can't point to any large group of people in KL who would take up arms in support of Cersei, no matter what decree she was waving around. There is a Tyrell army in KL. There is NO Lannister army. The Sparrows will not follow her. Mace Tyrrell has packed the Gold Cloaks with his own men - and the Gold Cloaks are infinitely bribable and several books ago it was mentioned that the Crown has trouble paying them. There is no fighting force capable of matching Mace's forces who would side with Cersei in KL. Power requires people - and there are none for Cersei.

All of them in believe power lies with the king, and his decrees are law. I think you just ignored what I just said. You are focusing too much on military power, and not informal power. There are and have been powerful court figures without armies. Mace moving militarily against Cersei would be incredibly politically risky. There are thousands of gold cloaks, and one hundred is not enough to take on all the rest. Cersei is Lady of CR, and can outbid Mace.

Do you have proof that Mace has this quasi-religious belief that a parchment signed by a naive eight year old playing with sealing-wax is sacred and can't be countermanded? The small council got Tommen to sign decrees forcing Cersei's stooges the Kettleblacks out of command of the Gold Cloaks and inviting Kevan to assume the Regency. If the small council can play that game, why can't Mace, through Margaery? Cersei convinces the naive Tommen to sign a decree making her Regent. Mace tosses Cersei in a cell and gets Margaery to get Tommen to sign another decree rescinding the Regency. If a king's decree is powerful, now Mace has his own.decree to play with. Explain to me why Mace would think HIS decree was invalid and Cersei's wasn't?

Do you have proof that Mace actually believes in the Seven? May I remind that this is a feudal society where power flows from the king. Moving against the decree and tearing it up would be illegal, an act of rebellion and treason. Mace doesn't want to give her any weapons to use against him. Cersei will likely have her men watching Tommen. I think you still fail to grasp political risks. Mace doing what you describe would be viewed as illegitimate, and legitimacy matters in this society. It would not look good for Mace with him knowing suspicion is already cast on him for Kevan and Pycelle's deaths, and illegally throwing Cersei in a cell and stripping her of power would not help him in that regard, but lead everyone to think he is staging a bloody coup. It would also be treason. He would be destroying the alliance. Mace's decree would be under different pretenses, and then there is public image to consider.

That's not the same thing as being barred from positions of power. The KG is barred from those things, but they still hold a seat on the council.

That is because the KG is sworn to serve the king, and the office of Hand is in the same vein while Lancel is sworn to serve the Faith. The monarchy and the Faith are two different institutions.

The HS has septas watching her like a hawk even though she's no longer in power and supposedly off to retirement in Casterley Rock. If she suddenly lurches back into power after he's condemned her as an unfit harlot, he will definitely want her out again, Who better than Lancel to be the Lannister representative to negotiate between Casterley Rock and Highgarden - a LOT better than the Whore of Babylon.

That is if Mace invites Lancel, and I don't see that happening. The HS could always back another candidate for the IT, like Aegon.

Mace knows he needs to share power with SOME Lannister - he had no problem doing so with Kevan. But he'd draw the line at that Lannister being Cersei, after it's clear what one of the three Kettleblacks she admitted to sleeping with was trying to entrap Margaery into adultery - and then when that failed accused her falsely of adultery. It's a lot more "politically risky" to work with a woman who's already tried to kill your daughter.

He didn't draw the line at Cersei, and the Kettleblack is the only evidence the HS has, and Osmund is already known to be a proven liar. It could be argued that Kettleblack confessed, because he was pushed with torture. We don't get an indication that Mace knows Cersei is behind the charges. I don't think you understand power and politics in a feudal court setting, no offense. Moving against Cersie would mena conflict with Lannisters with Aegon to the south, Euron to the west, Stannis to the north and the Faith in KL. The last thing he needs is to lose an ally, and get another enemy. HG can't fight on it's own, and it needs cooperation with CR.

[mambru]

All of them in Cerseibelieve power lies with the king, and his decrees are law. I think you just ignored what I just said. You are focusing too much on military power, and not informal power. There are and have been powerful court figures without armies. Mace moving militarily against Cersei would be incredibly politically risky. There are thousands of gold cloaks, and one hundred is not enough to take on all the rest. Cersei is Lady of CR, and can outbid Mace.

Mace has an ARMY. The Gold Cloaks are four thousand men who've never been properly trained as soldiers, and the Crown has canonically been having trouble paying them since ASOS. And you're still not answering the question - WHO is this powerful informal court figure who'd rise up in KL leading thousands of armed men to support Cersei's right to the Regency? WHO would be a convincing enough leader to get enough people to follow Cersei - whom everyone saw dishonored? Name him. If you can't, then you are basically relying on the idea that a king's decree will magically conjure up power out of nowhere.

You're also not answering my other question - why would Mace consider a Regency decree that Cersei wheedled out of Tommen a valid decree he must obey, while considering that a decree Margaery later wheedled out of Tommen rescinding Cersei's Regency to be illegitimate? They're both pieces of paper signed by a willing child who has no idea what he's signing. And remember, the Regency has already been taken away from Cersei like that once. While she was in the Sparrow's prison, two lowly figures like Pycelle and Harys Swyft went up to the King, gave him some sealing wax to play with, and rescinded Cersei's Regency and gave it to Kevan. And no "powerful court figure" rose up and raised an army to defend poor Cersei's right to her Regency. No one lifted a finger to stop her Regency being taken away - and this was before she CONFESSED to any crime. Why in the world would anyone do it now that she's admitted her own dishonor and been shame-walked through KL for it?

He didn't draw the line at Cersei, and the Kettleblack is the only evidence the HS has, and Osmund is already known to be a proven liar. It could be argued that Kettleblack confessed, because he was pushed with torture.

You're forgetting that Kettleblack walked into the High Sept of his own free will and confessed of his own free will to adultery with Margaery - an act that would condemn Margaery to death, as well as himself. And Cersei confessed she'd been sleeping with him, for his support and protection. There is no doubt that Osney was trying to get Margaery killed with his confession. This is an act of attempted murder that Mace would take VERY seriously. What motivated Osney? Who's behind it?

Cersei denies that she put Osney up to it, says he did it on his own. Osney says the Queen told him to do it and assured him she would protect him from the death penalty and have him sent to the Wall instead, where he'd commit another murder for her and be rewarded with a lordship. Which is more credible - that an illiterate sellsword masterminded a plot that would get him killed as a treasonous adulterer because he's just that crazy in love with Cersei - or that he was following her directions because as Queen she could protect him from the consequences of his actions and reward him for them?

In Kevan's last chapter it's pretty clear that Mace believes Cersei's guilty. He sternly questions the credentials of Cersei's invincible champion, obviously hoping to disqualify him. Kevan has to remind him that if Cersei's found guilty of adultery, Tommen's no longer king and everyone loses their power. Kevan also has to bend over backwards to reassure Mace that even if Cersei wins her trial, she absolutely WILL be sent away to Casterly Rock and specifically barred from affairs of governance and influence over Tommen. Mace obviously WANTS that reassurance. And when Kevan shows up dead and Cersei chirping "I'm baack" while waving a Regency decree - I think he'll draw the line there.

[Fire Eater]

Mace has an ARMY. The Gold Cloaks are four thousand men who've never been properly trained as soldiers, and the Crown has canonically been having trouble paying them since ASOS. And you're still not answering the question - WHO is this powerful informal court figure who'd rise up in KL leading thousands of armed men to support Cersei's right to the Regency? WHO would be a convincing enough leader to get enough people to follow Cersei - whom everyone saw dishonored? Name him. If you can't, then you are basically relying on the idea that a king's decree will magically conjure up power out of nowhere.

You are ignoring that military power isn't the sole form of power, especially in a royal court and the delicate political situation. The goldcloaks do have training under Tyrion in ACoK. You focus too much on brute force forgetting it isn't the only form of power, there are certain feudal customs in society. You also ignore the example of Dany. The king's decree is law, or why is there even a monarchy in the first place? Paper is important in this society as a mediveal historian would tell you.

You're also not answering my other question - why would Mace consider a Regency decree that Cersei wheedled out of Tommen a valid decree he must obey, while considering that a decree Margaery later wheedled out of Tommen rescinding Cersei's Regency to be illegitimate? They're both pieces of paper signed by a willing child who has no idea what he's signing. And remember, the Regency has already been taken away from Cersei like that once. While she was in the Sparrow's prison, two lowly figures like Pycelle and Harys Swyft went up to the King, gave him some sealing wax to play with, and rescinded Cersei's Regency and gave it to Kevan. And no "powerful court figure" rose up and raised an army to defend poor Cersei's right to her Regency. No one lifted a finger to stop her Regency being taken away - and this was before she CONFESSED to any crime. Why in the world would anyone do it now that she's admitted her own dishonor and been shame-walked through KL for it?

Mace would basically risk destroying the alliance, at time where unity is needed most. Cersei would keep her guards with Tommen. The Regency was taken away while she was imprisoned, and had no access to Tommen. In this scenario, Cersei has full access to him. Why would GRRM have it mentioned twice to Cersei that Tommen fixes his seal to any document placed before him if it is going to be important later on?

You're forgetting that Kettleblack walked into the High Sept of his own free will and confessed of his own free will to adultery with Margaery - an act that would condemn Margaery to death, as well as himself. And Cersei confessed she'd been sleeping with him, for his support and protection. There is no doubt that Osney was trying to get Margaery killed with his confession. This is an act of attempted murder that Mace would take VERY seriously. What motivated Osney? Who's behind it?

Cersei denies that she put Osney up to it, says he did it on his own. Osney says the Queen told him to do it and assured him she would protect him from the death penalty and have him sent to the Wall instead, where he'd commit another murder for her and be rewarded with a lordship. Which is more credible - that an illiterate sellsword masterminded a plot that would get him killed as a treasonous adulterer because he's just that crazy in love with Cersei - or that he was following her directions because as Queen she could protect him from the consequences of his actions and reward him for them?

Cersei could just say that the HS tortured Osney until he gave false stories that the HS wanted. Basically, saying that anyone has been known to confess under torture just to make the pain stop as is mentioned in both ADwD and TMK.

In Kevan's last chapter it's pretty clear that Mace believes Cersei's guilty. He sternly questions the credentials of Cersei's invincible champion, obviously hoping to disqualify him. Kevan has to remind him that if Cersei's found guilty of adultery, Tommen's no longer king and everyone loses their power. Kevan also has to bend over backwards to reassure Mace that even if Cersei wins her trial, she absolutely WILL be sent away to Casterly Rock and specifically barred from affairs of governance and influence over Tommen. Mace obviously WANTS that reassurance. And when Kevan shows up dead and Cersei chirping "I'm baack" while waving a Regency decree - I think he'll draw the line there.

Except trying to remove her by force would risk war between CR and HG, with enemies all over. Mace knows he needs CR as HG can't stand alone, and Cersei is still King Tommen's mother and Lady of CR. Where does it explicitly say Mace thinks Cersei is behind the allegations?

[mambru]

You are ignoring that military power isn't the sole form of power, especially in a royal court and the delicate political situation. The goldcloaks do have training under Tyrion in ACoK. You focus too much on brute force forgetting it isn't the only form of power, there are certain feudal customs in society. You also ignore the example of Dany. The king's decree is law, or why is there even a monarchy in the first place? Paper is important in this society as a mediveal historian would tell you.

You're still evading the question and not coming up with a name. Name an actual powerful person in KL who could muster up mass support for Cersei. If you can't, then the "power" conferred to Cersei by Royal decree is nonexistent.

And you're also evading my other question. If Tommen puts a seal on whatever document is set before him and it's legal, why would a document that Margaery obtains the same way rescinding Cersei's document NOT be just as legal?

Mace would basically risk destroying the alliance, at time where unity is needed most.

Mace needs a Lannister representative in power with him to keep the Lannisters on his side. He doesn't need it or want it to be Cersei. Lancel is the perfect representative of the Lannisters to make common cause with Mace Tyrell. He's turned against Cersei. He's the tool of the High Sparrow, who would be interested in maintaining his own power in KL and keeping the woman he's condemned as a whore unfit for power OUT of power. Because her reassumption of the Regency as if nothing had happened after the Sparrow's condemnation would undermine the High Septon's authority - AND, more importantly, having Cersei back in power after the High Sparrow made a mortal enemy of her would be hella dangerous to the High Sparrow. Cersei has had ONE High Septon murdered - why not another?

So the High Septon has every reason to use Lancel to work against Cersei and WITH Mace. And unless you can show me somewhere in the books where it says that a man who's taken holy vows CAN'T participate in the Council, then there's no legal obstacle to it. And yes, Mace is dumb as a stump, but unlike Cersei, he knows how to surround himself with competent men and to listen to them.

Cersei could just say that the HS tortured Osney until he gave false stories that the HS wanted. Basically, saying that anyone has been known to confess under torture just to make the pain stop as is mentioned in both ADwD and TMK.

But she CANNOT say that the High Sparrow made him go confess his adultery with Margaery with tortures. He went into the High Sept and did that of his own free will. That free confession was his crime. That confession was a murder attempt on Margaery, and it needs to be fully explained. WHY did he do it? His explanation under torture was that his lover the Queen told him to do it, that she promised he would escape punishment and get a reward for doing it. Cersei has CONFESSED that Osney was indeed her lover. HER explanation is that Osney loved Cersei SO SO MUCH that without her knowledge he went to falsely confess to adulteries with Margaery that would condemn him to death, just to please Cersei. Whose explanation is more credible, torture or no torture?

[Mithras]

You're still evading the question and not coming up with a name. Name an actual powerful person in KL who could muster up mass support for Cersei. If you can't, then the "power" conferred to Cersei by Royal decree is nonexistent.

And you're also evading my other question. If Tommen puts a seal on whatever document is set before him and it's legal, why would a document that Margaery obtains the same way rescinding Cersei's document NOT be just as legal?

From what I see, it is you who evades the point that power does not derive only from the swords. How many times Fire Eater has to remind you of the riddle of Varys?

Mace needs a Lannister representative in power with him to keep the Lannisters on his side. He doesn't need it or want it to be Cersei. Lancel is the perfect representative of the Lannisters to make common cause with Mace Tyrell. He's turned against Cersei. He's the tool of the High Sparrow, who would be interested in maintaining his own power in KL and keeping the woman he's condemned as a whore unfit for power OUT of power. Because her reassumption of the Regency as if nothing had happened after the Sparrow's condemnation would undermine the High Septon's authority - AND, more importantly, having Cersei back in power after the High Sparrow made a mortal enemy of her would be hella dangerous to the High Sparrow. Cersei has had ONE High Septon murdered - why not another?

So the High Septon has every reason to use Lancel to work against Cersei and WITH Mace. And unless you can show me somewhere in the books where it says that a man who's taken holy vows CAN'T participate in the Council, then there's no legal obstacle to it. And yes, Mace is dumb as a stump, but unlike Cersei, he knows how to surround himself with competent men and to listen to them.

But she CANNOT say that the High Sparrow made him go confess his adultery with Margaery with tortures. He did that of his own free will. That free confession was his crime. That confession was a murder attempt on Margaery, and it needs to be fully explained. WHY did he do it? His explanation under torture was that his lover the Queen told him to do it, that she promised he would escape punishment and get a reward for doing it. Cersei has CONFESSED that Osney was indeed her lover. HER explanation is that Osney loved Cersei SO SO MUCH that without her knowledge he went to falsely confess to adulteries with Margaery that would condemn him to death, just to please Cersei. Whose explanation is more credible, torture or no torture?

You are exaggerating. Cersei is not condemned as a whore.

There is one simple fact enough to disprove your whole reasoning here. If Varys suspests that the High Septon will keep Cersei out of power, he kills him too because Varys wants Cersei to regain her power and according to the Mercy chapter, he gets what he wants.

Currently, the Tyrells are under the power of the HS. Why should he remove Cersei and lose a solid ground against the Tyrells, who showed that they have no interest in sharing power?

[Fire Eater]

You're still evading the question and not coming up with a name. Name an actual powerful person in KL who could muster up mass support for Cersei. If you can't, then the "power" conferred to Cersei by Royal decree is nonexistent.

And you're also evading my other question. If Tommen puts a seal on whatever document is set before him and it's legal, why would a document that Margaery obtains the same way rescinding Cersei's document NOT be just as legal?

Cersei still has Qyburn, intelligence can't be underestimated as Varys demonstrated, and I think you are seriously missing the point. As has been repeatedly mentioned throughout the series, power isn't derived solely from swordpoint. Hence, Varys's riddle. Mace wouldn't move military against Cersei without risking war.

Mace and Margaery would have to get to Tommen first, and Cersei has her guards with him and the Master of Whisperers in her pocket. She would be wary. The document would be legal, but it would cause trouble as Cersei wouldn't go quietly.

Mace needs a Lannister representative in power with him to keep the Lannisters on his side. He doesn't need it or want it to be Cersei. Lancel is the perfect representative of the Lannisters to make common cause with Mace Tyrell. He's turned against Cersei. He's the tool of the High Sparrow, who would be interested in maintaining his own power in KL and keeping the woman he's condemned as a whore unfit for power OUT of power. Because her reassumption of the Regency as if nothing had happened after the Sparrow's condemnation would undermine the High Septon's authority - AND, more importantly, having Cersei back in power after the High Sparrow made a mortal enemy of her would be hella dangerous to the High Sparrow. Cersei has had ONE High Septon murdered - why not another?

Moving against Cersei using force would be sowing division between the Lannisters and Tyrells. Mace wouldn't think of inviting Lancel, and Cersei could likely move before her trial with the HS thinking she'll lose. Cersei wasn't condemned as a whore, but an adulteress. I think you are forgetting one obvious factor in the HS getting murdered like the previous: the High Sparrow has an army, and he would have guards throughout his quarters.

So the High Septon has every reason to use Lancel to work against Cersei and WITH Mace. And unless you can show me somewhere in the books where it says that a man who's taken holy vows CAN'T participate in the Council, then there's no legal obstacle to it. And yes, Mace is dumb as a stump, but unlike Cersei, he knows how to surround himself with competent men and to listen to them.

The HS isn't interested in working with Mace, or I doubt he would have imprisoned Margaery. Do you really think Mace would work with the HS after he just imprisoned Mace's daughter and is having her tried? Warrior's Sons on the small council would bring the issue of their duties being divided between the Faith and the Crown. By that same argument, unless you show me somewhere in the books where it says that NW men can't participate in the small council, then there's no legal obstacle to it. Although, I admit it could be a possibility. As for listening to sage counsel, did Mace listen to his mother when she said queening Margaery was a bad idea?

But she CANNOT say that the High Sparrow made him go confess his adultery with Margaery with tortures. He went into the High Sept and did that of his own free will. That free confession was his crime. That confession was a murder attempt on Margaery, and it needs to be fully explained. WHY did he do it? His explanation under torture was that his lover the Queen told him to do it, that she promised he would escape punishment and get a reward for doing it. Cersei has CONFESSED that Osney was indeed her lover. HER explanation is that Osney loved Cersei SO SO MUCH that without her knowledge he went to falsely confess to adulteries with Margaery that would condemn him to death, just to please Cersei. Whose explanation is more credible, torture or no torture?

Except it goes with what I said in saying that Osney lied, that he lied about Cersei ordering him to go to confess. She confessed that she slept with him which is a completely different crime. She said she was lonely after Robert's death, and he took advantage of that. She could say that he lied to boast that he bedded Margaery sine two queens sounds more impressive than one.

Also, I think you use caps too much, there is no need to shout. You don't need to overemphasize your point. It is clear we are going nowhere with this.

[mambru]

From what I see, it is you who evades the point that power does not derive only from the swords. How many times Fire Eater has to remind you of the riddle of Varys?

Repetition is dull, and proves no point on its own. Varys' riddle requires the presence of a sellsword willing to negotiate and work for the king, the priest or the rich man to impose the power of force on the others. In King's Landing, there isn't a "sellsword", a leader of men of equivalent power to the Tyrells who'd be willing to work for Cersei who hasn't already been bought up with religion (The High Sparrow) or riches (the Tyrells). You think that someone with lots of men under him would be willing to work for Cersei to get power? That requires belief that Cersei is capable of getting power for them. And anyone who thinks Cersei is smart enough to get power for them and not a noose need only look at the cautionary tale of the Kettleblacks. They thought Cersei could get power for them. Look where it got them.

Name one character with an important following of soldiers in KL who would work with Cersei. It's all I'm asking. If you can't, you don't have a "sellsword" for Varys' riddle.

You are exaggerating. Cersei is not condemned as a whore.

She confessed to fornicating with all three of the Kettleblack brothers for their services and protection, and did atonement for those confessed sins. I think most men in Westeros would think that was very similar to prostitution.

[Modesty Lannister]

Repetition is dull, and proves no point on its own. Varys' riddle requires the presence of a sellsword willing to negotiate and work for the king, the priest or the rich man to impose the power of force on the others. In King's Landing, there isn't a "sellsword", a leader of men of equivalent power to the Tyrells who'd be willing to work for Cersei who hasn't already been bought up with religion (The High Sparrow) or riches (the Tyrells). You think that someone with lots of men under him would be willing to work for Cersei to get power? That requires belief that Cersei is capable of getting power for them. And anyone who thinks Cersei is smart enough to get power for them and not a noose need only look at the cautionary tale of the Kettleblacks. They thought Cersei could get power for them. Look where it got them.

Name one character with an important following of soldiers in KL who would work with Cersei. It's all I'm asking. If you can't, you don't have a "sellsword" for Varys' riddle.

She confessed to fornicating with all three of the Kettleblack brothers for their services and protection, and did atonement for those confessed sins. I think most men in Westeros would think that was very similar to prostitution.

I applaud not only your firm and well argued arguments, but your stamina. Kudos.

[Fire Eater]

Repetition is dull, and proves no point on its own. Varys' riddle requires the presence of a sellsword willing to negotiate and work for the king, the priest or the rich man to impose the power of force on the others. In King's Landing, there isn't a "sellsword", a leader of men of equivalent power to the Tyrells who'd be willing to work for Cersei who hasn't already been bought up with religion (The High Sparrow) or riches (the Tyrells). You think that someone with lots of men under him would be willing to work for Cersei to get power? That requires belief that Cersei is capable of getting power for them. And anyone who thinks Cersei is smart enough to get power for them and not a noose need only look at the cautionary tale of the Kettleblacks. They thought Cersei could get power for them. Look where it got them.

Name one character with an important following of soldiers in KL who would work with Cersei. It's all I'm asking. If you can't, you don't have a "sellsword" for Varys' riddle.

Yet there are more than just sellswords in this arena but lords as well. These lords command swords as well as wield them. Mace doesn't want to do anything that would make him look bad or illegitimate in front of the realm. As for riches, may I remind you Cersei is richer than the Tyrells, and the Lannisters are associated with gold. Cersei commands soldiers herself, and she is Tommen's mother. One can't try force her out violently without risking retribution from Tommen when he comes of age, or risking war with CR, hence "A Lannister pays his debts." She is also the Lady of CR, and she commands the other half of the alliance needed to keep Margaery a queen.

I think Mace would tolerate her for a while, as he is still Hand and most of the small council is made up of his bannermen, but look for way to remove her without resorting to violence. He doesn't want it to get ugly.

She confessed to fornicating with all three of the Kettleblack brothers for their services and protection, and did atonement for those confessed sins. I think most men in Westeros would think that was very similar to prostitution.

Fornication is not synonymous with whoring, IIRC, even in Westeros. She was punished for fornication/adultery, nothing was said about whoring.