From Pawn to Slayer: Foreshadowing Sansa

[Mladen]

Correction, this isn't something you don't see in her narrative arc, not that it isn't in her arc, no offense. Unless you've read her chapters in TWoW, I don't think you have any authority to say whether or not something is part of her future narrative arc. Also, saying "I know when I see a good theory and I acknowledge those, but this simply isn't one of them." can be a bit insulting, especially when as I have said you lack the authority to make those kind of judgements or statements. You are entitled to your opinion, just remember to respect everyone else's, and remember "You know nothing, Jon Snow," so I don't think you should claim to know anything regarding where the story goes. That is why I state my theories and opinions as they are, my opinions, not as matter-of-fact.

Yeah, sorry if I wasn't clear. What this scenario suggests, IMO, is not part of the narrative. I am not authority to claim anything although I have spent extensive time analyzing Sansa's chapters and am considered one of those who know her story rather well. My experience and knowledge is something I base my opinion regarding the narrative, and I believe that the scenario suggested here is not something I, and many others, for I doubt I am the only one here, believe is not part of Sansa's story. I am sorry if I wasn't clear, but I do believe that anyone who has read and carefully analyzed Sansa chapters could have came with the same conclusion. Sansa's narrative simply isn't about returning to the point where she was. "From pawn to player" is not just the name of a thread, but one of the best descriptions of Sansa's narrative. That is why I believe that this scenario is not something likely to happen.

[the conquoring bastard25]

I knew you were going to say that, I swear when you know a man you know how to move a man.

I am merely pointing out that it's not out of the realm of possibitlies that the Tyrells and Martells are working together.

That to close your mind to the possibilities is where some readers in my opinion is where they make their mistakes.

Oberyn wants to remove Tywin as the man that ordered the deaths of Elia and her babe. Poisoning Joffery and getting himself accused and then placing himself on trial by battle.

Tywin and Tyrion would have seen the good sense in letting the man try and kill the Mountain that rides. He tells Tyrion that he wants the head that carried out the order but also the head that gave the order. Beating the shit out of the Mountain and provoking him just like he did at the fight(and isn't it odd the he champions Tyrion in the first place, guilty conscience maybe or fixing the plan that went sideways with Cersei and her big mouth). Getting the Mountain to admitting who's orders he was working under in open court before half the fucking realm oh come on. That definitely would give the Martells just cause to be a little shitty and justifiable when the raised their banners Marcella

Did I not miss a quote from Littlefinger regarding Margerey and her maidenhead, she doesn't want that or the bloody crown. She doesn't want to be queen at least in the book.

Yet raising the Banners for Marcella is the rouse, just like the Tyrells raising their banners for Renly is a rouse. They are waiting for a dragon to come home. and That dragon's name is Aegon VI of his name may he rule wisely and justly.

[Nikki of House Ringo]

1. I am of two minds here. Part of me wants to believe QoT is actually nice and wished Sansa no harm, and would have whisked her away to Highgarden once Tyrion was convicted, if getting Tyrion convicted was her plan in the first place.

2. Part of me wants to believe that QoT is called that for a reason, and is a female version of Tywin Lannister. She actually would not have minded if both Tyrion and Sansa were sentenced to death because then the Lannisters would lose their key to the North (Sansa) and also one of their most capable administrators (Tyrion).

EDIT: And an important point to consider is that the Tyrells (well, the QoT) were eyeing Sansa as a bride for Willas. This would have given them their key to the North, but they were cheated out of their power grab when Tyrion was married to Sansa. If the QoT is the ruthless pragmatist that the second scenario posits, then it would make perfect sense for her to deprive the Lannisters of one of their sons (and the official presumptive heir to Casterly Rock) and the key to the North in return for the way the Lannisters "cheated".

Right, I thought this was the case as well. Tyrion is put to death (or sent to the wall) and Sansa is free and clear to marry whomever she likes. I think had she been at the trial, it would have played out much differently, though it's possible she would have left before any of that happened anyways.

[Uldra I]

After reading all the posts, and the books, and watching the shows, I'd like to throw in my two cents. I think that the only motivation the Tyrell's need is that if they can get Sansa in their clutches, they believe they will own the North. If that actually happened, they'd rule the 7 kingdoms. Hopefully, Olenna felt a bit of empathy for Sansa and wanted to save her from the Lannisters, but when push came to shove, she opted for killing Joff to save her precious Margaery from a "monster". BTW, not slight to Margaery fans, she is a loveable character, but by now, show or book fans both realize Olenna runs the Tyrell show. So, Olenna placing her bet that Marg will still be queen by Tommen, she agrees to Littlefinger's plan to poison Joff. The whole scenario about incriminating Tyrion couldn't have been foreseen by anyone as that was due to the unfortunate cruelty Joff displayed toward him at the wedding. Olenna probably, however, realized her act could incriminate Sansa. She may have thought Sansa a necessary, but expendable 'casualty of war', dunno. From this, my thinking is that Olenna never really cared about rescuing Sansa as much as she cared about procuring the North for Highgarden.

If you read Paper Waver's quote above about Oberyn's invitation to Tyrion, it seems to be saying much the same.
Along with holding Myrcella hostage, Oberyn tries another power play to claim Tyrion AND the North (Sansa) in one fell swoop (?swell foop). High Garden and Dorne are both seeking more power... always more power. Please forum folk, don't mistake that Oberyn's offer to champion Tyrion as any sort of compassion. It is just his chance to end a long held grudge against Gregor Clegane. If he lives, I'm sure he'll be like Arya... not satisfied until all his vengeance is done.

[Fire Eater]

I'm not ignoring it. I'm aiming at the flaws. Falyse Stokeworth died a horrible death without a trial and she was friendly to Cersei. The same Cersei who actually spoke about cruelly killing Sansa once she got her hands on her. And your theory demands that this same Cersei, instead, not only gives her a trial, but doesn't even hurt her while she has her in her power.

And the second part requires that the person who actually killed Joffrey and implicated Sansa in the crime has a change of heart for reasons unknown. Remember, the QoT had already decided that an innocent 13 years old girl was to die for a crime she committed.

Except no one knew Falyse came to Cersei, and she had committed no crime against Cersei while it would be public that Sansa was brought to Cersei, and she is accused of a crime. The Tyrells would insist upon a trial, and likely so would Jaime. I never said Cersei wouldn't hurt her just not kill her.

The QoT hadn't decided that, as the scapegoat was clearly Tyrion, and the QoT wanted Sansa to be brought back to HG to marry Willas as she was still a maiden after Tyrion lost his head. Olenna's son was one of the judges, and it wouldn't be hard to have Sansa acquitted of all charges.

Yeah, sorry if I wasn't clear. What this scenario suggests, IMO, is not part of the narrative. I am not authority to claim anything although I have spent extensive time analyzing Sansa's chapters and am considered one of those who know her story rather well. My experience and knowledge is something I base my opinion regarding the narrative, and I believe that the scenario suggested here is not something I, and many others, for I doubt I am the only one here, believe is not part of Sansa's story. I am sorry if I wasn't clear, but I do believe that anyone who has read and carefully analyzed Sansa chapters could have came with the same conclusion. Sansa's narrative simply isn't about returning to the point where she was. "From pawn to player" is not just the name of a thread, but one of the best descriptions of Sansa's narrative. That is why I believe that this scenario is not something likely to happen.

I guess we will have to wait until TWoW.

[mambru]

Except no one knew Falyse came to Cersei, and she had committed no crime against Cersei while it would be public that Sansa was brought to Cersei, and she is accused of a crime...I never said Cersei wouldn't hurt her just not kill her.

Remember, Cersei utterly and sincerely believes Sansa to be guilty in the death of her beloved Joffrey. If she gets Sansa far enough into her power to hurt her, she would never exhibit the restraint required NOT to kill her as well, no matter the legal drawbacks she might have to deal with afterwards. We've seen that when it comes to revenging herself on anyone she perceives as hurting her children. she will always want the painful revenge first, no matter the practical drawbacks such an action might precipitate later.

We saw that as far back as the death of Lady on the Trident. She ordered Lady killed as a petty vengeful power play - even though it made her an enemy of Lord Paramount Stark. And we know for a fact that even way back then, the death of Lady was a poor consolation prize to the revenge Cersei really wanted, and sent Jaime out to get, and would have gotten if Jaime had found Arya first. If Jaime had found Arya and maimed or killed her as Cersei had demanded and Jaime said he was ready to do, it would have meant outright war between the Starks and Lannisters - but Cersei demanded it anyway. And that was Cersei of the first book - when she was at her slyest and soberest. IMO, she's shown few signs of getting more prudent and coolheaded in the subsequent books.

The Tyrells would insist upon a trial, and likely so would Jaime.

Why in the world would the Tyrells insist upon a trial for Sansa? To them (the actual murderers of Joffrey) it's best that Sansa and Tyrion continue to be the universally acknowledged culprits in Joffrey's murder. Reopening the case would mean that all the facts would be carefully and publically examined again - and thus the REAL murderers are place at risk again. They have no idea how much Sansa now understands of the Tyrrells' guilt in the matter, and how they framed her for the murder. The only safe assumption to make is that she knows ALL about it - as, in fact, she does.

If Sansa were captured and put on public trial, she'd have every reason to spill everything she knows about the Tyrrells - which would be fatal to whatever's left of the the Tyrell/Lannister alliance. Without the Lannisters' support, the Tyrrells can't hold on to power by themselves. They could never afford to let Sansa speak in court. If Sansa's capture were announced and she were being brought to KL, I think both Cersei's and the Tyrells' hired killers would be desperately competing as to which of them could disembowel her first.

[BloodFyre]

That was a good read. Keep up the awesome posts!

[Fire Eater]

Remember, Cersei utterly and sincerely believes Sansa to be guilty in the death of her beloved Joffrey. If she gets Sansa far enough into her power to hurt her, she would never exhibit the restraint required NOT to kill her as well, no matter the legal drawbacks she might have to deal with afterwards. We've seen that when it comes to revenging herself on anyone she perceives as hurting her children. she will always want the painful revenge first, no matter the practical drawbacks such an action might precipitate later.

We saw that as far back as the death of Lady on the Trident. She ordered Lady killed as a petty vengeful power play - even though it made her an enemy of Lord Paramount Stark. And we know for a fact that even way back then, the death of Lady was a poor consolation prize to the revenge Cersei really wanted, and sent Jaime out to get, and would have gotten if Jaime had found Arya first. If Jaime had found Arya and maimed or killed her as Cersei had demanded and Jaime said he was ready to do, it would have meant outright war between the Starks and Lannisters - but Cersei demanded it anyway. And that was Cersei of the first book - when she was at her slyest and soberest. IMO, she's shown few signs of getting more prudent and coolheaded in the subsequent books.

The Tyrells would demand a trial and they make a large part of the small council and provide the bulk of Tommen's support. Jaime would demand a trial as well. Cersei also likes to put on a show, and she could still get to kill Sansa since Cersei is convinced Sansa will lose, as she has no friends at court.

Lady was a direwolf with no legal rights while Sansa is a highborn girl with a number of rights. IIRC, she shows to be more subtle and cool with Kevan in ADwD.

Why in the world would the Tyrells insist upon a trial for Sansa? To them (the actual murderers of Joffrey) it's best that Sansa and Tyrion continue to be the universally acknowledged culprits in Joffrey's murder. Reopening the case would mean that all the facts would be carefully and publically examined again - and thus the REAL murderers are place at risk again. They have no idea how much Sansa now understands of the Tyrrells' guilt in the matter, and how they framed her for the murder. The only safe assumption to make is that she knows ALL about it - as, in fact, she does.

If Sansa were captured and put on public trial, she'd have every reason to spill everything she knows about the Tyrrells - which would be fatal to whatever's left of the the Tyrell/Lannister alliance. Without the Lannisters' support, the Tyrrells can't hold on to power by themselves. They could never afford to let Sansa speak in court. If Sansa's capture were announced and she were being brought to KL, I think both Cersei's and the Tyrells' hired killers would be desperately competing as to which of them could disembowel her first.

Because Margaery cares for Sansa, and the Tyrells would still be inclined to marry her to Willas. Olenna is the only Tyrell who knows about her part in Joffrey's death. Sansa is also highborn,and entitled to a trial. It is never a good thing when a monarch can just extra-judicially execute someone highborn as Aerys demonstrated.

If Sansa says it was the QoT, who would believe her? She has no proof.

[Uldra I]

...

If Sansa says it was the QoT, who would believe her? She has no proof.

Pycelle has already revealed the necklace/hairnet in court too. At least he did in the show... sheesh can't remember show from book facts anymore. :blushing:

I have a bad case of BookShow Soup. *sigh*

[Fire Eater]

Pycelle has already revealed the necklace/hairnet in court too. At least he did in the show... sheesh can't remember show from book facts anymore. :blushing:

I have a bad case of BookShow Soup. *sigh*

It was the show.

[Mithras]

Why in the world would the Tyrells insist upon a trial for Sansa?

Because they know she is innocent for sure. And she is still a precious prize. I think they will force Cersei to NOT choose UnGregor if it comes to trial by combat. Cersei will have to agree because the Tyrells will imply that unmasking of UnGregor is a ticket to hell for Cersei and her children while the Tyrells might survive the revelation of twincest/necromancy etc. After all, they have a chance to bend their knee to fAegon while Cersei has none.

[Howling Mad]

OP - nice read.

[WolfWarg]

Sansa's narrative simply isn't about returning to the point where she was. "From pawn to player" is not just the name of a thread, but one of the best descriptions of Sansa's narrative. That is why I believe that this scenario is not something likely to happen.

Have to disagree with this. From pawn to player describes a character arc, not about where she goes physically in terms of The North or King's Landing. I'd say the best way to show character growth is to have the character confront a situation from the past and show how she'd deal with it completely differently now.

[mambru]

The Tyrells would demand a trial and they make a large part of the small council and provide the bulk of Tommen's support. Jaime would demand a trial as well. Cersei also likes to put on a show, and she could still get to kill Sansa since Cersei is convinced Sansa will lose, as she has no friends at court.

Because it went SO well for Cersei the last two times she tried to arrange show trials for her enemies - of course she'd want to do THAT again...it's sure to work out to her complete satisfaction this time.

Sansa is also highborn,and entitled to a trial. It is never a good thing when a monarch can just extra-judicially execute someone highborn as Aerys demonstrated.

Aerys demonstrated that it's not a good thing - but no one changed the laws, only the ruler. It's still an absolute monarchy. And if Cersei manages to claw her way back to the Regency after Kevan's death, IMO it's highly unlikely that she's going to act more cautiously than Mad Aerys at this point. I don't think ONE demure and subdued scene with Kevan after her Walk of Shame proves that she's learned more prudence and caution than she ever demonstrated in 5 books.

Not to mention the idea that Cersei and Margaery can somehow officially reconcile and make nice after everything that happened is even more insane than Mad Aerys. Cersei tried to railroad Margaery into a death sentence through judicial murder. That's not something that ANY of the family (not to mention the High Sparrow) will be willing to overlook. The Tyrrells were willing to deal with Kevan because he'd agreed to break Cersei's power and remove her from KL no matter what the outcome of her trial was. Now that Kevan is dead, the Tyrells are NOT going to trust Cersei and treat with her again. Even if they were dumb enough to be willing, Cersei's own paranoia will be exacerbated by Kevan's mysterious murder. She will naturally attribute it to the Tyrells and feel surrounded by enemies, and she's going to lash out to save herself and Tommen from them. IMO, she will not bother with more complicated show trials that have a high chance for failure. Cersei will be DONE with subtlety. She will say, "Fuck this "facade of legality" shit. Ser Robert Strong, here's my hit list."

In the meantime, the Tyrells will think Cersei was the one who killed Kevan to get the Regency back. And if Cersei can't be trusted not to kill her own kin, then they CERTAINLY can't trust her not to kill them. I think the death of Kevan is going to precipitate all-out war between Cersei and the Tyrrells for possession of Tommen and power over the throne...which is IMO exactly what Varys was trying to achieve by killing Kevan as he did.

[mambru]

Because Margaery cares for Sansa, and the Tyrells would still be inclined to marry her to Willas. Olenna is the only Tyrell who knows about her part in Joffrey's death.

Margaery "cared" so much for Sansa she dropped her like a hot potato as soon as Sansa was married to Tyrion and she was useless to the Tyrrells' ambitions. And only on the show was Margaery innocent of Joffrey's murder and Sansa's framing. In the book, she pretty much HAD to know both things. She shared Joffrey's chalice with him, and whether Olenna passed the poison to Margaery to put in the wine or put it in herself, Margaery had to know the exact moment that the chalice was poisoned, so she could stop drinking from the chalice.

And even if she was not initially aware that Olenna got the poison from Sansa's hairnet, she would know from Sansa's timely disappearance at the moment of Joffrey's death that whoever caused Sansa's disappearance was as deeply involved in Joffrey's murder as Margaery's grandma was. Even if Margaery couldn't figure out Sansa's role as designated patsy for herself, if she had the sense God gave a flea she'd know that to bring BACK that patsy and try to prove her innocence might be very dangerous to the actual guilty parties (herself and Olenna).

As for the Tyrrells all being supportive of Sansa and wanting her back, read this:

"No," the Knight of Flowers said, unamused. "Sansa Stark was the poisoner. You all forget, my sister was drinking from that chalice as well. Sansa Stark was the only person in the hall who had reason to want Margaery dead, as well as the king. By poisoning the wedding cup, she could hope to kill both of them. And why did she run afterward, unless she was guilty?"

Now whether Loras sincerely believed Sansa was the guilty party or whether he's just backing up Grandma's railroading of Sansa, that's not the kind of position you can walk back from easily.

Because they know she is innocent for sure.

And the Tyrrells know that they themselves are GUILTY for sure. The reason Sansa looks guilty before the nation is because the Tyrells did some very hard work with LF to make her look guilty. If they now want to prove her innocent, it would require undoing that hard work and endangering themselves as well as their accomplice.

If Sansa's put on trial and the Tyrells want to help her try to prove her innocence, the first thing Sansa will be required to explain was HOW she managed to disappear so successfully and completely at the exact moment Joffrey died if she WASN'T the actual murderer. She will point to LF. If the Tyrells back her up on this, they are betraying their own accomplice in the murder. That's an extremely dangerous move. An old hand at intrigue like LF is likely to have retained plenty of proof of the Tyrells' guilt. And LF is currently the Regent of the Vale. If the Tyrrells make an enemy of him, they may lose the support of the Vale's untouched harvests and armies - which they are desperately going to need as winter sets in.

Do you really think the Tyrells are going to risk that just to get Sansa? What do they get if they keep Sansa and alienate Littlefinger? They get a claim to the burned-out hulk of Winterfell, full of a starving population still at deadly odds with each other - none of whom would welcome Tyrell conquest or be willing to send a single soldier to help them keep the Iron Throne. They ALSO get a powerful enemy in LF, who they well know is very good at assassinations. IMO, they need LF's friendship a lot more than they need Sansa's claim.

[Fire Eater]

Because it went SO well for Cersei the last two times she tried to arrange show trials for her enemies - of course she'd want to do THAT again...it's sure to work out to her complete satisfaction this time.

Her trial with Tyrion would have won, and it worked as the court was convinced of his guilt. It wasn't because it failed but because Tyrion was whisked away. Neither of her show trials ended in failure.

Aerys demonstrated that it's not a good thing - but no one changed the laws, only the ruler. It's still an absolute monarchy. And if Cersei manages to claw her way back to the Regency after Kevan's death, IMO it's highly unlikely that she's going to act more cautiously than Mad Aerys at this point. I don't think ONE demure and subdued scene with Kevan after her Walk of Shame proves that she's learned more prudence and caution than she ever demonstrated in 5 books.

It is not an absolute monarchy, don't confuse a feudal monarchy with an absolute monarchy. The lords enjoy a degree of autonomy, and the king gets the bulk of his military power from them. Aerys didn't get away with what he did. Aerys didn't have complete control over the 7K or any dragons, the same can be said for Cersei. GRRM said the monarchs closest to absolute monarchs were Aegon, Maegor, Aenys and Jaehaerys.

Cersei has learned to hide her feelings.

Not to mention the idea that Cersei and Margaery can somehow officially reconcile and make nice after everything that happened is even more insane than Mad Aerys. Cersei tried to railroad Margaery into a death sentence through judicial murder. That's not something that ANY of the family (not to mention the High Sparrow) will be willing to overlook. The Tyrrells were willing to deal with Kevan because he'd agreed to break Cersei's power and remove her from KL no matter what the outcome of her trial was. Now that Kevan is dead, the Tyrells are NOT going to trust Cersei and treat with her again. Even if they were dumb enough to be willing, Cersei's own paranoia will be exacerbated by Kevan's mysterious murder. She will naturally attribute it to the Tyrells and feel surrounded by enemies, and she's going to lash out to save herself and Tommen from them. IMO, she will not bother with more complicated show trials that have a high chance for failure. Cersei will be DONE with subtlety. She will say, "Fuck this "facade of legality" shit. Ser Robert Strong, here's my hit list."

I never said anywhere that Cersei and Margaery would reconcile, but you are forgetting that Mace is still the Hand with most of the military support for Tommen, and he would listen to his daughter, especially since it brought no harm. Cersei tried to have the Faith do it, and it is incorrect to analogize it to extrajudicially killing Sansa, as the Faith would have killed Margaery with Cersei having clean hands while Cersei would be clearly killing Sansa.

Cersie is still going to regain the Regency, and she commands the second half of the alliance. Again, none of the trials ended in failure or her. Tyrion was all but convicted. Besides, you are forgetting that Cersei knows Sansa has hardly any friends at court.

In the meantime, the Tyrells will think Cersei was the one who killed Kevan to get the Regency back. And if Cersei can't be trusted not to kill her own kin, then they CERTAINLY can't trust her not to kill them. I think the death of Kevan is going to precipitate all-out war between Cersei and the Tyrrells for possession of Tommen and power over the throne...which is IMO exactly what Varys was trying to achieve by killing Kevan as he did.

Except what has this to do with what we are arguing? They know she would not risk losing HG and the bulk of Tommen's support by killing them, she is that sane at least. It won't be all-out war as the Tyrells know that is the last thing they need with the enemies to the south, west and north. Trying to stop her through force of arms would destroy the alliance.

Margaery "cared" so much for Sansa she dropped her like a hot potato as soon as Sansa was married to Tyrion and she was useless to the Tyrrells' ambitions. And only on the show was Margaery innocent of Joffrey's murder and Sansa's framing. In the book, she pretty much HAD to know both things. She shared Joffrey's chalice with him, and whether Olenna passed the poison to Margaery to put in the wine or put it in herself, Margaery had to know the exact moment that the chalice was poisoned, so she could stop drinking from the chalice.

Actually no, she didn't have to know. That would complicate things and risk Margaery's life. Olenna just needed to wait for the right moment before Joffrey had more wine poured into his chalice, and he would be the first to drink. If Margery approached to drink, Olenna could have simply have some chit chat long enough for the poison to effect Joffrey, which is not very long. I doubt Margaery doesn't care about Sansa being executed.

And even if she was not initially aware that Olenna got the poison from Sansa's hairnet, she would know from Sansa's timely disappearance at the moment of Joffrey's death that whoever

caused Sansa's disappearance was as deeply involved in Joffrey's murder as Margaery's grandma was. Even if Margaery couldn't figure out Sansa's role as designated patsy for herself, if she had the sense God gave a flea she'd know that to bring BACK that patsy and try to prove her innocence might be very dangerous to the actual guilty parties (herself and Olenna).

Except Margaery would have nothing to go on on that her grandmother did it, and Sansa disappearing has nothing to do with Olenna.

As for the Tyrrells all being supportive of Sansa and wanting her back, read this:

Now whether Loras sincerely believed Sansa was the guilty party or whether he's just backing up Grandma's railroading of Sansa, that's not the kind of position you can walk back from easily.

Except Loras doesn't have a position of power at court, Mace and Margaery do. He also was not consulted for the plan to marry Sansa to Willas.

[chrisdaw]

Sansa will have her trial, but the Tyrells won't be any kind of factor in it, nor even likely alive by the time it occurs. Cersei and the HS (with hopes of Sansa being found innocent) will drive the trial. Cersei will want to outright kill her and the HS will insist (and have his way) on a trial.

And the Faith will most likely hold Sansa, because Cersei can't be trusted.

[Uldra I]

Because it went SO well for Cersei the last two times she tried to arrange show trials for her enemies - of course she'd want to do THAT again...it's sure to work out to her complete satisfaction this time.

Aerys demonstrated that it's not a good thing - but no one changed the laws, only the ruler. It's still an absolute monarchy. And if Cersei manages to claw her way back to the Regency after Kevan's death, IMO it's highly unlikely that she's going to act more cautiously than Mad Aerys at this point. I don't think ONE demure and subdued scene with Kevan after her Walk of Shame proves that she's learned more prudence and caution than she ever demonstrated in 5 books.

Not to mention the idea that Cersei and Margaery can somehow officially reconcile and make nice after everything that happened is even more insane than Mad Aerys. Cersei tried to railroad Margaery into a death sentence through judicial murder. That's not something that ANY of the family (not to mention the High Sparrow) will be willing to overlook. The Tyrrells were willing to deal with Kevan because he'd agreed to break Cersei's power and remove her from KL no matter what the outcome of her trial was. Now that Kevan is dead, the Tyrells are NOT going to trust Cersei and treat with her again. Even if they were dumb enough to be willing, Cersei's own paranoia will be exacerbated by Kevan's mysterious murder. She will naturally attribute it to the Tyrells and feel surrounded by enemies, and she's going to lash out to save herself and Tommen from them. IMO, she will not bother with more complicated show trials that have a high chance for failure. Cersei will be DONE with subtlety. She will say, "Fuck this "facade of legality" shit. Ser Robert Strong, here's my hit list."

In the meantime, the Tyrells will think Cersei was the one who killed Kevan to get the Regency back. And if Cersei can't be trusted not to kill her own kin, then they CERTAINLY can't trust her not to kill them. I think the death of Kevan is going to precipitate all-out war between Cersei and the Tyrrells for possession of Tommen and power over the throne...which is IMO exactly what Varys was trying to achieve by killing Kevan as he did.

:agree:

[mambru]

Her trial with Tyrion would have won, and it worked as the court was convinced of his guilt. It wasn't because it failed but because Tyrion was whisked away. Neither of her show trials ended in failure.

Oh? You think the elaborately rigged legal prosecution she was hoping to kill Margaery with was a success? It got Cersei walking naked through KL and being prosecuted for adultery herself. If I were Cersei, I'd be extremely wary of assuming that any MORE trials I engineer will come out exactly the way I want and NOT end up biting me in the ass.

As for Tyrion's trial - he was in the black cells, at her mercy - and because she went through all the legal motions instead of just having him smothered in his cell and damn the consequences, Tyrion got away. Along with her failure to entrap Margaery through the legal system AND being hoist on her own petard by it, I'd say she'd probably favor more direct action over more failure-prone legal finagling - especially now that she has such a fine tool for direct action in Ser Robert Strong.

Except what has this to do with what we are arguing? They know she would not risk losing HG and the bulk of Tommen's support by killing them, she is that sane at least.

No. No she isn't. Tommen Lannister's hold on the Iron Thone ALWAYS depended on the Tyrrels' support from the start of his reign. And Cersei was too insanely blinded by jealousy to understand it for herself. She was stupid enough to believe that she could get rid of Margaery by judicial murder and either STILL keep Mace's support in keeping Tommen on the throne (even though the whole reason for Mace's alliance was to have his grandchildren be Royals) or that Tommen could somehow keep his throne without Tyrrell support. Her jealousy of Margaery and her greed for power was so potent that it caused her to act against poor Tommen's best interests. That's not quite sane. And I can't imagine walking naked through KL has made her saner.

And if the Tyrrells trust Cersei to have learned her lesson and accept her back as an ally after what she did - if they think that NOW they can count on her to support them in Tommen's best interest and NOT backstab them again - then they're even dumber than Cersei has proved herself to be. Fool me twice...

IMO, the Tyrells would consider it much safer for them to take Cersei down by hook or by crook and treat with the next Lannister heir (Lancel, I think). To trust Cersei NOT to attack them because it's not in her own best interest is like that old story of the frog trusting the scorpion to act sensibly, instead of like a scorpion. It's in her nature....

[Fire Eater]

Oh? You think the elaborately rigged legal prosecution she was hoping to kill Margaery with was a success? It got Cersei walking naked through KL and being prosecuted for adultery herself. If I were Cersei, I'd be extremely wary of assuming that any MORE trials I engineer will come out exactly the way I want and NOT end up biting me in the ass.

Except Margaery hasn't been given a trial yet. No matter the outcome, your forgetting that Cersei wouldn't be giving the trial the Faith would. In the trial Cersei would give she would definitely be one of the judges.

As for Tyrion's trial - he was in the black cells, at her mercy - and because she went through all the legal motions instead of just having him smothered in his cell and damn the consequences, Tyrion got away. Along with her failure to entrap Margaery through the legal system AND being hoist on her own petard by it, I'd say she'd probably favor more direct action over more failure-prone legal finagling - especially now that she has such a fine tool for direct action in Ser Robert Strong.

Except Tyrion getting away had nothing to do with the trial. The trial went the way she wanted, and Tyrion's escape happened outside it. In Sansa's case, Cersei would be a judge this time and she would have more guards outside her room. You are also forgetting that executing Sansa extra-judicially would be a politically risky move.

No. No she isn't. Tommen Lannister's hold on the Iron Thone ALWAYS depended on the Tyrrels' support from the start of his reign. And Cersei was too insanely blinded by jealousy to understand it for herself. She was stupid enough to believe that she could get rid of Margaery by judicial murder and either STILL keep Mace's support in keeping Tommen on the throne (even though the whole reason for Mace's alliance was to have his grandchildren be Royals) or that Tommen could somehow keep his throne without Tyrrell support. Her jealousy of Margaery and her greed for power was so potent that it caused her to act against poor Tommen's best interests. That's not quite sane. And I can't imagine walking naked through KL has made her saner.

Except Cersei's plans never included killing Mace or any of the Tyrells herself, and her killing the Tyrells, especially Mace, would obviously lose HG's support. She has that much sense at least.

And if the Tyrrells trust Cersei to have learned her lesson and accept her back as an ally after what she did - if they think that NOW they can count on her to support them in Tommen's best interest and NOT backstab them again - then they're even dumber than Cersei has proved herself to be. Fool me twice...

They would try to find some way to legally remove her from power. Mace likely doesn't know Cersie is behind the charges against Margaery.

IMO, the Tyrells would consider it much safer for them to take Cersei down by hook or by crook and treat with the next Lannister heir (Lancel, I think). To trust Cersei NOT to attack them because it's not in her own best interest is like that old story of the frog trusting the scorpion to act sensibly, instead of like a scorpion. It's in her nature....

Lancel isn't the next Lannister heir, Tommen and Margaery are. You are forgetting the Tyrells know Cersei needs their support, and Mace likely has nothing to go on that she is working against them.