What were the odds of Ned becoming Hand?

[RedShirt47]

When Jon Arryn died I'm sure lords of the court would have wagered a Stag or two on who would be the replacement. Who would they be betting most silver on?

Given that Robert was a disinterested king who never even bothered to attend Small Council meetins, he hadn't seen Ned for years, Ned was not a political lord and stayed well out of King's Landing I'm not thinking Ned was high on the list.

I think the candidates would rank something like:
LittleFinger - Jon Arryn had trusted him enough to raise him through the ranks to be Master of Coin. Been greasing the wheels of King's Landing for some time. Good relationship with the Lannisters.

Tywin - Grandfather to the heir. Experience of being Hand. Knew the game well. Had the bank roll to back him up. The king's wife could ersuade the king.

Renly - King's brother. Liked by many. Good relationship with Tyrells. Had the networking skills.

Stannis - King's brother. Respected (if not liked) by many. A solid pair of hands who could be relied upon.

Ned - Good friend to the king in the past.

Other candidates?

Not sure many people would have bet on Ned and when he was announced I'm sure many went "Huh?".

[Lord Baalish]

Hoster Tully? Not sure what health he was in at the start of GoT though.

[joluoto2]

Since Robert make the picking, I doubt anyone was surprised he picked his old best buddy Ned.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

95%, no questions asked.

[SerArthurHeath]

As Robert loved Ned more than anyone ever apart from maybe Jon Arryn and Ned's own sister? Really really probable

[Bael's Bastard]

Ned was going to be offered Hand with Jon dead, no doubt. I wouldn't be surprised if he was offered it before Jon became Hand.

[Welshgaryen]

quite high considering that he was made the hand... and by the sounds of it not long after Jon's death.

[The Bittersteel]

"Damn you, Ned Stark. You and Jon Arryn, I loved you both. What have you done to me? You were the one should have been king, you or Jon"

High, if Jon Arryn was his father, Ned was his real brother.

[Maester Pedant]

Considering the kind of man Robert was, choosing Ned makes perfect sense.

First and foremost, Jon Arryn, the previous Hand, was his surrogate father. I doubt he ever considered his relationship with him from a "professional" point of view, or that he ever assessed Jon Arryn's actions from a political perspective. For him Jon Arryn was his father, and therefore it made sense (and was convenient) that he should rule.

When he lost Jon Arryn, Robert then had to choose another Hand. And he decided to choose the man who was like a brother to him, putting sentimental considerations above political concerns.

If Robert and Stannis had had a better relationship, he would have chosen Stannis. But having Stannis as Hand would require Robert to be a bit more hands-on, if only to moderate Stannis' tendency towards inflexibility.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

95%, no questions asked.

I'd say 99%. Ned was the only other man in the kingdom Robert trusted to tell him the truth.

No way he would have given it to Tywin. He knew better than to let his goodfather get too much power and influence. The last king Tywin was Hand for ended up dead...killed by Tywin's son.

[eggs]

Pretty sure everyone thought that Ned would be asked, that he would he refuse, and that Jaime would then take the position.

oh, and lolStannis.

Ned was not a political lord

I dont think that's a thing.

[The Kinkslayer]

33%, either him, Tywin or Jaime (sometimes you need to keep you wife happy)

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Pretty sure everyone thought that Ned would be asked, that he would he refuse, and that Jaime would then take the position.

oh, and lolStannis.I dont think that's a thing.

Those who know Ned might have thought he'd refuse, but a lot of people would have taken it for granted that when the king asks not even Lord Stark says no.

Agreed about Stannis. Robert would be more likely to name Renly Hand, and that would be a longshot too.

[The Santa of House Claus]

Ned would have been the favorite choice, maybe 4:1 followed by Tywin then Stannis.

[Stormland's Fury]

Probably Tywin, since it seems it was an open secret that the Lannisters called the shots in KL.

[Winterfell is Burning]

Anyone that knows Robert knew Ned would have been chosen. That's why LF killed Arryn in the first place.

[finnegan_stark]

Given King Robert's comment to Ned that the only reason he didn't abdicate was the thought of Cersei Joffrey ruling in his stead, there was absolutely no way Tywin or Jamie was getting the nod for Hand.

No way he would have given it to Tywin. He knew better than to let his goodfather get too much power and influence. The last king Tywin was Hand for ended up dead...killed by Tywin's son.

Also, the bolded sentence.

[Martin's Ghost]

To the general populace Ned might have been a dark horse since they probably hadn't seen evidence of any affection between Robert and Ned for many years. To those in the loop, i.e. those closest to Robert, they could probably guess who would become Hand.