Why the Hooded Man is Almost Certainly Harwin.

[Northernmonkey]

The more I think about it the more I'm convinced that the hooded man is Harwin. I'm going to make a few assumptions here but they're logical ones.

1. LS must know about the wedding between Ramsay and Arya. It's common knowledge and the BWB seem to know a lot about what's going on.

2. When she finds out about it the first thing she would do is send someone to Winterfell.

3. The person she would choose for this mission is Harwin. He knows Winterfell very well, and he probably knows how to sneak in and to sneak around undetected. And obviously he knows what Arya looks like.

4. Therefore we can assume that Harwin is either in Winterfell or on his way to Winterfell.

So if Harwin is in Winterfell (as looks likely) then he is obviously the hooded man. I'm surprised that so many people seem to think otherwise.

[Reek Havoc]

I think the argument against it being Harwin is that Theon knew Harwin and would have recognized him. However, even Arya herself barely recognized him when she first saw him because he lost weight and grew a beard, so you have a valid point.

[Starfell]

Could be. Although I'll stick to my own theory that the Hooded Man is Grey Wind warging Reynald Westerling ;)

[Bright Blue Eyes]

1. LS knows that fArya is indeed fake.

4. The timeline for that is quite short.

Furthermore, why wouldn't Theon recognize Harwin? He met him every day, and as son of the Master of Horse as well as being Theon's generation, he wouldn't dismiss him either.

[Northernmonkey]

1. LS knows that fArya is indeed fake.

How do we know that?

[Hotpie Targaryen]

Well someone probably mentioned that Arya was last seen traveling with the Hound, so depending on how much else they know, they might be able to surmise that fake Arya is fake.

I agree that Harwin would totally be the one to send to Winterfell, but there's zero chance that Theon wouldn't recognize him, given Harwin's job and Theon's (second?) favorite pastime.

[Northernmonkey]

Well someone probably mentioned that Arya was last seen traveling with the Hound, so depending on how much else they know, they might be able to surmise that fake Arya is fake.

But she would definitely still send someone to check if it was the real Aya or not. And Harwin would be the perfect person.

I agree that Harwin would totally be the one to send to Winterfell, but there's zero chance that Theon wouldn't recognize him, given Harwin's job and Theon's (second?) favorite pastime.

As Reek Havoc pointed out above, Arya didn't recognise Harwin at first, and she hasn't been through half the stuff that Theon has. We'd be stupid to rely on Theon to recognise anyone - he's a broken man.

[A Bastard Snow]

How do we know that?

Well firstly Brienne told her and secondly that alot of people saw the Hound going around with Arya and the BwB at one point used to have the loyalty of the commonfolk so its logical to assume someone told them they had seen/heard of the hound with a girl that exactly matches Arya's description.And Arya cant teleport so its impossible for her to have gotten to the North so quickly

[Bright Blue Eyes]

How do we know that?

The BWB followed Arya right up until Saltpans, loosing her there about two weeks after fArya appears in KL.

Furthermore, Brienne can confirm that information, since Jaime explicitly told her that fArya is fake.

And Roose passed through the Riverlands with fArya. No indication that LS even tried to save fArya there.

[Northernmonkey]

The BWB followed Arya right up until Saltpans, loosing her there about two weeks after fArya appears in KL.

But the wedding wasn't common knowledge at the time. Presumably it takes (f)Arya at least a few weeks to reach Winterfell, so LS can't be sure it's not the real Arya.

Furthermore, Brienne can confirm that information, since Jaime explicitly told her that fArya is fake.

But LS doesn't trust Brienne. She thinks she trying to protect Jaime.

To be honest you make some good points, but we can't be sure that LS knows Arya is fake. She must suspect it, but it still makes sense to send someone to confirm it.

[A Bastard Snow]

The BWB followed Arya right up until Saltpans, loosing her there about two weeks after fArya appears in KL.

Furthermore, Brienne can confirm that information, since Jaime explicitly told her that fArya is fake.

And Roose passed through the Riverlands with fArya. No indication that LS even tried to save fArya there.

Yea pretty much all of this.LS would have had someone check to make sure the Arya with Roose was a fake which wouldnt be hard as all you would need to do is get close enough to see her eye color to know for a fact that it is not Arya.

Also why would LS wait until Roose got to Winterfell to confirm who she is when they passed through the Riverlands the base of power for the BwB.LS knows for a fact that the Farya in WF is a fake.

[Northernmonkey]

Yea pretty much all of this.LS would have had someone check to make sure the Arya with Roose was a fake which wouldnt be hard as all you would need to do is get close enough to see her eye color to know for a fact that it is not Arya.

Also why would LS wait until Roose got to Winterfell to confirm who she is when they passed through the Riverlands the base of power for the BwB.

We don't know when LS found out about the wedding. I can't remember when Roose announced that the wedding was happening but it could have been after he'd arrived in the North. (If anyone could check that it would be helpful)

LS knows for a fact that the Farya in WF is a fake.

You've got no way of knowing that.

[TheCasualObserver]

It would certainly make sense that Harwin would be sent to take a gander at fArya, but Theon doesn't recognize him as such in his POV. On the other hand, that chapter took place when Theon still considered himself Reek, so internally he might just view Harwin (if it is him) as someone Reek wouldn't know even if the Theon inside him does. That might explain not giving the HM a name in his POV yet still being somewhat familiar with him.

I'm ranking Harwin as the second most likely identity of the FM. Here's my list.

The Hooded man is...

1. An imagined representation of a younger Theon before the maiming, reminding the current Reek of what he used to be and thus the "ghost of WInterfell."

2. Harwin, sent by Lady Stoneheart to infiltrate WF and ascertain the idenitity of Ramsay Bolton's blushing new bride.

3. A physical manifestation of the stranger, who essentially asks Reek if he still wants to live. There's still something of Theon left in him, so he refuses, and the Stranger walks to the great hall to await the deaths of the murdered men of WInterfell.

[Northernmonkey]

I agree that Harwin would totally be the one to send to Winterfell, but there's zero chance that Theon wouldn't recognize him, given Harwin's job and Theon's (second?) favorite pastime.

Another thing - Theon doesn't recognise his sister and he doesn't recognise Arnolf Karstark when he meets him at the Dreadfort. He's obviously not very good at recognising people.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

There is a chance LS sent Harwin North to rescue Arya and there, he realised she wasn't the real one. And he changed plans.

[MyLittleFinger]

I'm not saying it isn't possible because it certainly is...but how would he get there? Wouldn't he need to pass Moat Cailin which is under the control of the Bolton's? It's not like Harwin has a Winterfell banner and a title to fly around in the Neck and hope the Crannogmen don't gut him since he's pretty much a peasant deserter at this point.

Travel North along the Kings Road seems to be quite sufficiently halted outside of the Frey/Bolton incursion.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

But the wedding wasn't common knowledge at the time. Presumably it takes (f)Arya at least a few weeks to reach Winterfell, so LS can't be sure it's not the real Arya.

Oh, it was. Everybody knew that fArya was traveling north with Roose Bolton, Lord Paramount of the North, and that they (Steelshanks Walton and fArya) started out of KL that day. LS has undeniable proof that Arya was in Saltpans about two weeks later, making fArya clearly a fake.

By the way, fArya needs a full four months to reach Winterfell.

[A Bastard Snow]

Oh, it was. Everybody knew that fArya was traveling north with Roose Bolton, Lord Paramount of the North, and that they (Steelshanks Walton and fArya) started out of KL that day. LS has undeniable proof that Arya was in Saltpans about two weeks later, making fArya clearly a fake.

By the way, fArya needs a full four months to reach Winterfell.

Yea and you cant really miss several hundred soldiers rolling up the kingsroad carrying a giant naked flayed pink man sigil.There is no way LS didnt hear about it and have the time to see if the Arya with him was real or not.

And it wouldnt even require LS to be there in person as all it would take is someone close enough to see what color her eyes are (Arya has Grey eyes and (F)Arya does not)There is no way LS would have let someone she thought was Arya go with the man who betrayed her son no way in hell.

[Hotpie Targaryen]

Another thing - Theon doesn't recognise his sister and he doesn't recognise Arnolf Karstark when he meets him at the Dreadfort. He's obviously not very good at recognising people.

Theon hasn't seen his sister in 10 years, and who knows when, if ever, Theon met Arnolf Karstark. True, Arya didn't recognize Harwin at first, but Theon likely spent a lot more time with him than Arya.

[Carey Snow]

I'm not saying it isn't possible because it certainly is...but how would he get there? Wouldn't he need to pass Moat Cailin which is under the control of the Bolton's? It's not like Harwin has a Winterfell banner and a title to fly around in the Neck and hope the Crannogmen don't gut him since he's pretty much a peasant deserter at this point.

Travel North along the Kings Road seems to be quite sufficiently halted outside of the Frey/Bolton incursion.

A single man could bypass Moat Cailin, just not an army.

Harwin is a possibility. I lean more to a man of Lord Manderly bringing word of Davos and Rickon.