Viserys, Darkstar and Doran's game: a theory

[The Fourth Head]

Ok, after much confusing hijacking of other people's threads, I have decided to start my own thread to challenge posters to put my new theory through the ringer. It may sound crackpot, but curiously, the theory has stood up until now.

Please try to keep an open mind, and search for the most sensible and foolproof reasons for not believing it. If a sufficiently compelling argument for why it is not possible is found- I will ditch it, but I have put a lot of effort in, and would appreciate the same effort in response.

A brief history of Dorne after Robert's Rebellion- and why the story we have been given doesn't seem plausible when we scratch beneath the surface.

1) After the Targaryans were defeated, Oberyn tried to raise Dorne for Viserys- seemingly with no allies. This was quashed after Jon had some words with Doran. Tywin from Casterly Rock knew about this attempt as well, so it was a badly kept secret. Oberyn was caught rashly shouting it in the streets. The venture would never have succeeded as Dorne has fewer than 50,000 spears- a figure which is, according to Doran, grossly exaggerated. So this action was very rash and foolhardy, implying discord between Doran and Oberyn, and further, the back-down was very odd- Jon threw them a bone (Lewys), and they backed down, despite still seething about Elia's death 17 years later. So why they U-turn? It can't have been because they had given up on revenge- they hadn't. It can't have been because they were rumbled, because no efforts were made to keep it secret by Oberyn, so what could have persuaded Oberyn to back down, other than them losing the element of surprise (which he never sought out) and gaining Lewyn's bones?

- Perhaps it was this: Doran persuaded Oberyn to try a different tack. An indeterminate amount of time later, Oberyn and Willem Darry met in Braavos and formed a secret pact, witnessed by the Sealord of Braavos to marry Viserys to Arianne. According to Dany, had he known of the pact, Viserys would have crossed the narrow sea to marry Arianne. That did not happen, so presumably, Viserys did not know, and this secrecy safeguarded Doran from having his hand forced prematurely. Further, according to GRRM Varys did not know about the pact either, so in this instance, Oberyn and Doran stole a march on Varys and found a blind spot in his informant network. Varys is fallible. 1 - 0 to Doran and Oberyn. We can assume Doran soothed Oberyn into complying with Jon's request for peace because of this plan, and that Oberyn would be charged with actively seeking out allies for when Viserys came of age- which seems- very remote and restrained by the heretofore senseless Oberyn.

- Doran then apparently, did very little whilst Oberyn did the legwork. Oberyn was involved in a sellsword company, and Viserys sought the GC's support, but both plans didn't amount to anything. So presumably, we are meant to believe that Oberyn was bent on revenge, almost raised Dorne, but was persuaded to stay cool for 17 years for little reason other than a secret pact and a few aborted efforts to gather allies that didn't amount to anything. I suppose we are to assume the man had just grown up quickly after Doran had some words with him- words that fell on deaf ears prior to Jons visit. Hmmm,

- Even more curious, many years later, when Viserys came of age, nothing happened. Viserys did not learn of the pact, he did not come to Dorne, and Oberyn did not do anything either. Time kept on ticking. Where was all this patience coming from if Viserys was of age and nothing was developing? Where were the allies the had afforded themselves so much time to win? Quentyn, Trystane- both could have forged powerful marriage pacts geared towards this, but it's Tyrion's idea to send Myrcella to Dorne, and Quentyn's plan seems a reactive one to the emergence of Dany in Meereen, so it smacks of a lack of forethought- of reactive behaviour which doesn't match our impression of the man as a skilled Cyvasse player harbouring a powerful grudge.

- At some point, Doran arranged for Arianne to meet her betrothed, a green haired girl appeared in the water gardens, but Doran's wife threatened to harm herself if she lost another child (the plan was only to meet her betrothed in Tyrosh) and so yet another plan was aborted- but the Archon of Tyrosh still sent his daughter? Later, inconsistently, Mellario returned to Norvos and abandoned all three of her children- which is why I'm shining a red light on all of this as deliberate misinformation.

-Finally, incredibly, it's Varys and Ilyrio that come up with a plan first- and for Dany. Despite waiting for a younger man (Aegon) to come of age, they get the jump on Doran who had an 8 year head start with his Targaryan claimant and came up with the Dothraki idea. Viserys then chooses to go off to Vaes Dothrak and dies, and all Doran's long term patience was utterly ruined because he didn't go to the effort of putting a few anonymous guards and advisors around his most valuable asset and waited too long doing nothing. How can we not judge this man harshly given his burning desire for revenge and his love of Cyvasse?

The theory

We know Oberyn was in Braavos where Viserys was residing initially, and he forged the pact without Varys knowledge. We don't know exactly how old Dany was, but she was very young, with only a few vague memories of a red door, and those memories may have come towards the end of their stay there as she got older. Would Doran really engage his eldest daughter to the last remaining male Targaryan, then leave the boy to gallivant around westeros chased by assassins? Wouldn't it be best to bring the boy back to Dorne in secret, and set up a false identity that have him conspicuously running the gauntlet begging everyone for armies in the free cities?

Step forward Gerold Dayne. This boy, of similar age to Viserys would be set up as a decoy. It would be possible based on Dany being too young to know the difference, and with Willem Darry's consent that it was in the boy's best interest. Just as Lewin advised Bran and Rickon to separate, so it was prudent to separate the Targaryans. Gerold Dayne and Dany would travel the free cities conspicuously, Gerold was advised that Viserys was a hotheaded in nature, Gerold had the same understanding of the Targaryans and westerosi lords as Viserys would have had, and noone in the free cities was an expert in Viserys precise appearance- nor did they really care. Gerold became frustrated with his role, impatient, and slightly unhinged playing a hotheaded king 24/7 and treated Dany with contempt. He wanted an army of his own and had major inadequacy issues- if his identity was discovered, he would be killed, adding to his desperation to gain respect and recognition. Dany expressly tells us "He was no Dragon" and Jorah describes him as "the shadow of a snake". Dragons are commonly associated with worms "the shadow of a worm" would have worked as well, but "snake" is perhaps a reference to Oberyns' dealings.

So in short, Viserys was back in Dorne long before he was old enough to marry Alysanne.

The Daynes, as we know, have strong Valyrian looks. Edric has dark blue eyes that appear purple, Viserys had purple eyes according to Dany, Gerold Dayne has dark purple angry eyes, and purple, as we know, is a strong Targaryan trait and almost exclusive to them- the Daynes are the only family that share very similar looks.

Further, they are of similar ages. After GRRM was asked in an interview that Ran wanted to know of Darkstar's age, he said he normally asked Ran that sort of thing- (ho ho) he was then asked to clarify certain facts for the westeros app run by Ran and Lynda, and he presumably sat down, thought about this question- and told them that he was "in his late twenties in 300AC" No other character has a delta as far as I recall. The most dangerous man in Dorne is given a delta, and thousands of other minor characters are given specific dates of birth. In 300AC, Viserys would have been 25. But depending on when his name-day was, he may have turned 26 within the 300AC year- meaning that factually, they could be of exactly the same age.

But if they had swapped identities, closeness is enough because Gerold Dayne and Viserys are two different people who were swapped aged 8/9.

So to continue the explanation, Oberyn carried Viserys back to Dorne having taken Gerold out on a mission to squire for him in the free cities. "Darkstar" (Viserys) is then rewarded for his services, given lands and a keep- high Hermitage- and made head of a Cadet Branch. Now I'm speculating that this Cadet Branch was formed during Darkstar's lifetime because he is the head of it. There are no older family members in charge- no parents. If the house was established on Darkstar's arrival, then the household would be new, the new household would know nothing of Gerold Daynes precise appearance, and therefore, would not need paying off or keeping quiet. They would accept Viserys on face value. So what looks like a cadet branch forming as a reward for an orphan Dayne for services granted to the Prince in Dorne s actually a hidden king's retreat, (a hermit king living high up in the mountains- High Hermitage) This would enable him to stay away from the other Daynes who could have identified him as an imposter had he returned to Starfall. With a bad attitude, he could pretend to not get on with the remaining Daynes in Dorne (that seems to amount to 1 aunt at this stage!) or simply be busy whenever occasion called for them to be together. As time drags on, the risk decreases that the 27 year old man would be identified as someone other than the 8 year old boy to a casual observer over the table. People change.

Further, he either imitates Gerold's dark streak with black dye, whereas Gerold dyes the black streak out as silver in Essos. Alternatively, both had silvery hair, and it's part of his new "Dark" image on returning from Essos as his new "head of the cadet branch" identity, and he dyes the streak in as an emo vanity thing- whereas really, it's to throw people off the scent that he is Viserys, and it really symbolises that he is a king in hiding- black streak for concealment, his star is yet to shine. He is of the night because he is incognito.

Now obviously, Darkstar has a few issues- he has no supporters bar Doran who he is entirely indebted to and who he needs to corroborate his story. As an 8 year old, I would imagine there is some identifying feature on his body that would be recorded in the Red Keep that identifies Viserys. Indeed, it would be easier to prove the identity of someone who was last known as an 8 year old in westeros, than, for instance Aegon as a baby, but the subtlety of the plan is, noone was looking too closely as "Viserys" was allegedly gallivanting around Essos drawing attention and knives, and unsubtly begging for support.

Darkstar spent some of his time getting to know Arianne- his betrothed. If they had children, Arianne thinks they would be as beautiful as Dragonlords (ho ho) but he doesn't reveal his identity because Arianne is young and rash.

So why, when Myrcella is almost crowned, does he do nothing about his own claim and slash her face?

Because he is indebted to Doran, he needs Doran's support, and he has been made to understand that Dorne alone will fail so to be patient. However, when discovering that crowning Myrcella would grant Trystane- Doran's son- the IT, he becomes anxious- a Lannister / Martell alliance with his son on the throne would not work from a feud POV, but if he suspected Doran of forgiving the Lannisters on Tywin's death, then that would be a rival proposition to the Viserys / Arianne on the throne idea, so Viserys put paid to any risk of a Lannister / Martell alliance by slashing Myrcella's face. HJe didn't want to kill her as that would have brought war on Dorne and forced Doran to sell Viserys out to save himself- but he did feel threatened, and didn't want Myrcella to be crowned in secret behind his back again. Crowning her would have made her injury public and put paid to any alliance with the Lannisters.

So this would make Darkstar the most dangerous man in Dorne. If he reveals himself, by extension, he reveals Doran as a traitor to Robert, Joffrey, Tommen, Stannis, or Aegon depending on who ever holds more power than him.

Part 2 of the theory will cover how this fits in with Doran's plans, and how it works from a literary POV.

[Caesar beyond the wall]

Well, it is certainly plausible to me! Unlikely perhaps - I can see the readers becoming annoyed at the amount of secret Targs coming out everywhere, but a lot of thought and work has clearly gone into this - I like it!

[Bawn]

This would also make "Darkstar" (Viserys) a strong candidate for The Valonqar. Rhaegar's little brother. I always wonder why it was phrased in Valerian in the first place.

[Maester Pedant]

I came up with the "Darkstar is the real Viserys Targaryen" crackpot theory not long ago, but your take on it is far more plausible.

[The Poster Who Was Promisd]

Perhaps the most obvious of the many problems with this theory is why Doran would send Quentyn to Daeneyrs if he had Viserys in his back pocket.

[Frey family reunion]

You lost me with the dying of the black streak in the hair. And how on earth does GRRM make your theory at all readable?

[The Fourth Head]

Part 2

Ok, so why has Doran waited so long t make his move it he has had Viserys in his pocket the whole time, and how does he know, in advance, about Aegon?

My theory is, that Illyrio and Varys conceived of the Aegon plan very early. His upbringing has been consistent, the boy clearly seems to believe he is Aegon, so if he is a Blackfyre, and Ilyrio's son, then for a long time, he has not been under that impression.

With that plan in mind, what, in Varys' shoes, would you do? Doran is proving to be patient, nursing his grievance, Oberyn has flagged up their Targaryan loyalties with his aborted Viserys uprising stunt, and he doesn't want Doran as an enemy when Aegon makes his bid. So, he let's Doran in on the plan- but only tells him that Aergon is a Targaryan, he is Doran's nephew, and that revenge will be his if he can only be patient, to sit back and allow Varys to weaken and undermine Robert's rebellion allies, and patiently wait for Varys to bring more allies to their cause. He may have implied that Arianne would be a suitable marriage alliance.

So Doran is faced with Aegon, or Viserys. Aegon has the better claim, but why trust the master of whisperers that he smuggled his nephew out, but failed to spare his sister and niece? The baby swap story is plausible, but not beyond suspicion. Now Doran has extensive contacts and knowledge of Essos. He is one of the first Westerosi to play Cyvasse, his people are of the Rhoyne and share traits and characteristics, he as close links with the ruler of Tyrosh, his wife and captain of the Guards are from Norvos, Oberyns daughter Nymeria is of the Oldest blood of Volantis, and perhaps most tellingly, Tyene's mother was a septa who presumably broke her vows with Oberyn. So it is no surprise that Doran knew of Aegon's presence on the Rhoyne, and I theorise that Septa Lemore is a spy, otherwise, her presence and focus of attention was unnecessary padding to the story. Futher- that she is Doran's spy, and either Tyene's mother, or (less likely) that she is Mellario, and that was the real reason she abandoned her children- to check out this boy on the Rhoyne acting suspicious.

Whether Tyene's mother or Mellario was the septa, if you believe this possible, then i believe that Doran- convinced of putting his plans on the backburner- quickly discovered the truth that Ilyrio and Aegons' company was too close, and perhaps knew of some identifying trait that a Dornish nephew would posess, and that Lemore uncovered as absent from the boy. Further, if Ilyrio is a Blackfyre, or if Varys is a Blackfyre or Targaryan, then who else but Doran and Oberyn would find out and rumble them?

Whether Doran knew Aegon was real or fake, he clearly knew of his presence in advance based on his comment to Arianne about concealing young dragons, so I'm fairly confident Doran's patience is down to Aegon.

But what if he is a fake and Doran discovered it?

Well, from Varys POV, I would speculate he underestimated Doran just as we are being widely encouraged to do based on his ever growing failed attempts. We know that Varys is unaware of the Viserys / Arianne pact. We know that this was an ideal window to do a swap as Varys was blind to Oberyn' presence in Braavos. From there, Doran, IMO, has gained the initiative.

The Arianne / Viserys secret meeting never happened not because Mellario got all womanly, It never happened because there was no point sending Arianne off to Tyrosh to meet a man who wasn't Viserys. Instead, the Archon of Tyrosh- still sends his daughter- with, presumably, an adult or 3, and they would be in Dorne. To check out the real Viserys? Either the Archon was in on the plan, or, even more subtly, the Melliaro excuse was given to him to put Varys off the scent. It would continue the sharade that they believed Viserys was in Essos and they were still considering him as an option, and it would throw Varys off the scent of suspecting that Doran's inertial was suspicious. It would put the High Hermit beyond suspicion.

Instead of Doran being the duped one, the Targaryan loyalisty waiting for Ilyrio to rally the GC (when Viserys could not!) to the "Targaryan" before calling his swords to the boy he believes to be his nephew, now Varys is the duped one. Because, by weakening Westeros before committing Blackfyre loyalists at a moment when westeros is divided, it is Varys' Blackfyre forces sticking their neck on the line. Without Varys, Doran was stuck to take on Robert's armies, or the Tyrells and Lannisters- alone. With Varys' plot, he can let Aegon take all the risks, and ally the Blackfyres in the vacuum of power Varys will have engineered.

From there, Doran can use Arianne to reveal Aegon's true identity. If she has been told of some trait- some eye colour, some freckle or birthmark that his nephew would possess, and knows already that Aegon is fake, then this is quintessential foot dragging, setting Arianne out on a mission she has no idea she will fail on, in the same way he allowed Arianne to get Myrcella half way to Hellholt before rumbling her through Darkstar's intel. This would turn the whole battle for power into another Dance of the Dragons- an imposter, posing as Aegon, having taken risks fighting Tyrells and Stormlords and weakneing his armies, being revealed by Arianne, and Doran choosing this moment to reveal Viserys and win over all the former Targaryan loyalists as Blackfyre / Targaryan divisions are reestablished- to which the Targaryans presumbly have much more support . He who laughs last, laughs loudest, as it were, and this is the reason, IMO, behind Doran's patience- his knowledge of Aegon, his knowledge of his Blackfyre origins, and his secret knowledge that Viserys is still alive.

Why this works from a Literary perspective?

Ok- secret identity theorys have gone into overdrive of late, but the Mystery Knight, and ADWD really cranks up the suspicions that what we see is not what is.

If Aegon was genuine, he would have been a baby we assumed died long before the story began, only to pop up in book 5 of 7 to trump Dany's claim. That is amusing, but it feels a bit...hollow. The later a major character is introduced, the harder it is to accept them. Viserys was introduced as one of the original characters. We all formed opinions on his character, on his failings, his shortcomings, were all wrongfooted that this king claimant could die so soon and so meekly, that he as a false start, and we are reminded of his abject failings every time Viserion is named, an ever present character, and remeinded, even in Dany's last chapter- of him as an influencing character on Dany. So to pull the rug out and reveal that Viserys LIVES, that he could easily claim the throne after all, that our assumptions about him were wrong- to some extent (Darkstar still seems a bit of a knob) and giving Dany FURTHER cause to feel betrayed, paranoid, mistrustful etc would be good story telling. We spend the whole time believing Aegon to be fake that we miss the fact that someone else is really Viserys.

this works better, for me, that theorising that a REAL Aegon is out there, because for 5 books, and many years before, he was dead. He is a non character. For 2 to pop up at the same time is a bit like "why do I care?" whereas for Dany to have to determine the resolution of the second Dance by choose between her real brother, despite believing she knew him as someone else, and a fake Nephew, without any knwledge of Blackfyre history and house allegiances etc could involve a tragic intervention by the slayer of lies.

[Joseph Stark]

I love this theory...I hated Viserys and am one of the few people it seems that likes Darstar. This would also explain why Doran was mad at Arianne for including Darstar in her plot because he didnt want to risk Viserys life. Also a reason why Darkstar would hate Arthur Dayne is he would resent him for not protecting Rhaegar and Aerys. Also why Illyrio married off Dany before trying to make a match for fViserys and why he gave her the dragon eggs and not him. One problem I have with this theory is how do you explain why they went through the trouble of bringing Viserys over and hiding him and then didnt go through with marrying him to Arianne?

[DaeronSnow]

Perhaps the most obvious of the many problems with this theory is why Doran would send Quentyn to Daeneyrs if he had Viserys in his back pocket.

Because she has dragons, which would mean that Darkstar is not necessary anymore.

[The Fourth Head]

I came up with the "Darkstar is the real Viserys Targaryen" crackpot theory not long ago, but your take on it is far more plausible.

I know! after coming up with it on my own as a revision of the "Aegon is Darkstar" theory, (the ages being the clue) I did a search and found yours. I them freely confess to revising my theory and going for the swap idea of Gerold and Viserys. I had tried to fit Varys into the plot and using a targaryan bastard from Lys as Viserys' cover guy, but yours was way more plausible. I just polished it a little. When I found out Varys didn't know about the Viserys Arianne pact, I dropped the idea that Varys was involved in that aspect and realised I had forgotten about Oberyn.

[Maester Pedant]

I know! after coming up with it on my own as a revision of the "Aegon is Darkstar" theory, (the ages being the clue) I did a search and found yours. I them freely confess to revising my theory and going for the swap idea of Gerold and Viserys. I had tried to fit Varys into the plot and using a targaryan bastard from Lys as Viserys' cover guy, but yours was way more plausible. I just polished it a little. When I found out Varys didn't know about the Viserys Arianne pact, I dropped the idea that Varys was involved in that aspect and realised I had forgotten about Oberyn.

LOL.

It is as I feared. I created a monster!

[The Fourth Head]

LOL.

It is as I feared. I created a monster!

ha! well, you certainly thought of it first, but was already up and motoring with the Viserys is Darkstar theory before coming across yours. It's like a two headed monster- maelys the monstrous!

[The Fourth Head]

You lost me with the dying of the black streak in the hair. And how on earth does GRRM make your theory at all readable?

Either:

1) Gerold Dayne has a black streak, Viserys did not, so "Darkstar" dyes a black streak into his hair and the guy in essos dyes the black streak out.

2) Both simply had silver uniform hair originally. Darkstar just took it upon himself to dye a streak in his hair for his own reasons. It has nothing to do with pretending to be Gerold Dayne. He is pretending Gerold Dayne decided to dye his hair and assume a mannered "Darkstar" image as part of being head of a cadet branch of High Hermitage. As the rightful king of westeros he may have indulged himself, afterall, the people of Essos dye their hair all sorts of colours.

I think 1) is more watertight.

[Maester Pedant]

ha! well, you certainly thought of it first, but was already up and motoring with the Viserys is Darkstar theory before coming across yours. It's like a two headed monster- maelys the monstrous!

I'm just hoping somewhere in these forums there is a new Barristan the Bold capable of slaying it...

[The Fourth Head]

Perhaps the most obvious of the many problems with this theory is why Doran would send Quentyn to Daeneyrs if he had Viserys in his back pocket.

Indeed! That was another plan Doran did not expect to succeed, just as Arianne's plan was given a lot of slack before being, ultimately, rumbled, and just as I believe Arianne has been sent off to see if this "boy is real" when Doran already knows he is a fake. Arianne is the one who will rumble Aegon- so it is a doomed mission- but that "failure" will carry with it some benefits, same as the previous two.

Obviously, Arianne learned from her failed mission. Rather than her father telling her what to do, and forcing her to learn, he allowed her to learn from her own mistakes. It was never going to succeed because he had Darkstar alongside her the whole time, getting to know his betrothed and ensuring it wuldn't get as far as crowning Myrecella, He could trust his life on Darkstar wanting to rumble that plot.

So how do I back up the claim that Doran did not expect Quentyn to succeed and that he benefitted from it?

Doran wanted Quentyn out of Dorne when Aegon landed in westeros. He didn't want him dead, he didn't want him to try and steal some Dragons, and crucially, nor did the Yronwoods, but he wanted him away across the sea away from Westeros and Dorne. Why?

Quentyn was squired out to the Yronwoods as a peace offering to prevent a rift developing following Lord Yronwoods' death through festered wounds. So Quentyn was effectively a Yronwood sympathetic YW hostage. Doran did not realise that back then, as he did not know of Aegons' true identity. I think he did by the time he sent Quentyn to Essos. Worse, his son chose to be knighted by Lord Yronwood, and not Oberyn. Worse still, the Yronwoods are known Blackfyre sympathisers, rebelling in 3 Blackfyre rebellions. If Aegon is a Blackfyre, then Quentyn would be a massive liability to house Martell- at best an Yronwood controlled Martell puppet sympathiser to the Blackfyres, at worst, a flagrant hostage, and Doran would not want his son's blood on his hands by revealing Viserys when his son is in their clutches.

So he gave Quentyn a miserably difficult task to get him out of Dorne without upsetting the Yronwoods. He pretended he was still looking for alliances, knew nothing of the Blackfyre plot, and was setting Quentyn out on a genuine plausible task. If it succeeded, hooray- Quentym and Dany and 3 dragons join Viserys an Dorne. Bonus. But that wasn't the real goal- the real goal was to get Quentyn out of Dorne.

If he had simply recalled Quentyn, they would have been deeply suspicious, they would believe Doran had rumbled the Blackfyre plot, Doran would have risked looking disloyal and uncommitted to Varys plan to support Aegon, and the YW's would have either pretended Quentyn was ill, or invented some other excuse not to release him. I firmly believe Varys spent his time in ADWD preparing Blackfyre sympathisers for Aegon's arrival in Westeros and this also explains why Darkstar hates the Yronwoods so much.

So despite Nymeria's mother being of the bluest Volantene blood, Quentyn reaches Volantis with no contacts, no knowledge of places to stay, no means of getting a ship, no money for fine clothes, nothing. Doran has contacts with the Archon of Tyros. Surely he could have sent Quentyn in secret to there, to be gifted a ship, fine clothes, and a quick, swift, sporting chance of winning Dany's hand? No. Further, Arianne, in her cell encounters a massive book of Dragons, and isn't interested despite books on Dragons being very rare and hard to get hold of. Quentyn's knowledge of Dragons was very limited. Once again, he was unprepared. Doran wowed Mellario with his shining sun clothes, whereas Quentyn was disgused as a frog alongside a dashing sandy haired charmer in Gerris Drinkwater. I think Doran wanted Quentyn to take ages, refused to give his secret contacts away to the Yronwoods, and if he ever reached Meereen, expected the Yronwoods to subtly undermine him so didn't go out of his way trying to help Quentyn. (As it turned out only GD did this subtle undermining, AY seemed oblivious and was genuinely just trying to protect Quentyn which served both the Martells and the Yronwoods) if he could make contact with Dany and bring her back to westeros, sympathetic and trusting of Dorne, then even better to avoid the risk that she would believe Aegon and not Viserys and Dorne. Quentyn was a bookish boy despite not being given access to that Dragon books and could have taught Dany the difference between Blackfyre and Targaryan supporters.

I think the Yronwoods wanted Quentyn to get there, fail (for obvious reasons) and get home as swiftly and safely as possible back into Yronwood clutches, hence Drinkwater's apparent resourcefulness, Doran's unhelpfulness and Barristans lack of trust in "false coin" Gerris Drinkwater.

If Doran had Viserys in his back pocket, Quentyn would have immediately become a Blackfyre hostage on Viserys being announced, so it was key for Doran to extract Quentyn without arousing suspicion before Aegons true identity is revealed. It would never have worked because the Yronwoods wouldn't have let it, and he knew it, so he made the mission as slow and difficult as possible to keep Quentyn out of the picture. The stepstones attack may have been a Doran plot- an attempt to eliminate some of his Yronwood escort in a hope of ultimately freeing Quentyn without suspicion, because otherwise, it was crazy from the pirates POV- to attack a ship, fail to take it, be beaten off by a few merchants, kill a few Yronwoods, and flee.

[King Aegon The Conqueror]

I like the theory but I don't believe it. I would hope it's true but I doubt it will be. Excellent work though.

It would be amazing if this is true and turn out that Doran is a better player of the game than both Varys and Littlefinger!

[The Fourth Head]

I'm not sure whether this supports or undermines the theory but I've just spotted this:

"The sword of the morning!" Dany said delighted. "Viserys used to talk about his wonderous white blade. He said Ser Arthur was the only knight in the realm who was out brother's peer"

Getting it to fit? Lets try:

Darkstar sounds disenchanted and critical of Ser Arthur Dayne, as if he had been let down. Arthur Dayne was a Kingsguard member and the royal family DID die, so this would make sense. Whether the true Viserys before he was 8 was bursting with pride for the Sword of the Morning is moot- he was the most celebrated Knight in the kingdom. He probably did think of him fondly. Until his family died and he let them down.

As for Gerrold Dayne- well, lets assume he and Dany travelled the free cities together after swapping when Dany was a baby still. What's his opinion going to be on his family's sword? Bubbling enthusiasm I might imagine. He might not know an awful lot about dragons, but he would have a high opinion of Arthur Dayne and the wonderous Sword of the Morning.

Ser Barristan then starts to question "Prince Viserys" truth like it was a bit of BS and false platitudes towards Rhaegar, as if Gerold Dayne were spinning Dany a yarn and pretending Rhaegar was great so he could get away with indulging in some Dayne history and not risk sounding critical towards the family he was pretending to be a member of and be called disloyal.

Dany "I know little of Rhaegar, only the tales Viserys told, and he was a little boy when out brother died" telling tales? pretending to know more than he did, and it still not amounting to much?

Finally this catch:

"Viserys talked of those skulls" said Dany "The Usurper took them down and hid them away. He could not bear them looking down on him upon his stolen throne"

Now if this is the real Viserys talking to Dany he could not have known this first hand. We have to assume someone told him the Dragon skulls had been taken down by someone who witnessed it and then got in contact with Viserys who had fled before Robert arrived. But who? The reason given is hypothesis and fabrication

Alternatively, if Gerold Dayne was in KL after the sack, before being taken with Obern to Braavos, he would have known this information and could have hammed it up to please Dany.

Dany also asks whether Aerys was good and gentle. I'm guessing here, but those words seem like an assumption, unless she was told he was good and gentle by her "brother"? But why would an 8 year old boy, who knew his father was a raving man who raped his mother and made his mother's life miserable, and who enjoyed burning men alive describe him as "good and gentle?" You wouldn't no matter how much you admired your father "fierce" would sound better "harsh but fair".

This sounds like Dany has been fed a pack of barefaced lies that go beyond devotion, that make her family out to be perfect and everyone else evil, guaranteeing that when she came of age, she would hate the "usurpers dogs" and perhaps be of some use to the Dornish.

[Greystark Reborn]

I tots want to believe this theory, but I think the Martells in the game of thrones to win it, not come in second place, watch the Preston James video on YouTube to see why.

[The Fourth Head]

more propaganda:

"House Martell is ancient and noble, and has been a leal friend to House Targaran for more than a Century"

Says Dany, courtly in ADWD, but her knowledge of most things Westerosi came from the man she travelled around with. Yes Viserys would understandably be positively inclined towards House Martell but this sounds laid on a little thick. Maybe an 8 year old by does think all enemies are baddies and all allies are ace, but to continue feeding this simplistic view into adulthood is interesting. Surely he would be bitterly reflecting on how House Martell had turned their back on him and ignored his rights to the throne for 17 years like cowards? He never knew about the pact.

[Mithras]

You lost me with the dying of the black streak in the hair. And how on earth does GRRM make your theory at all readable?

Same here.