Military Strengths of Major Houses

[James Arryn]

In the real world, it was rare for the Lords to actually know what they themselves could field. There is no census, no numbers for population, hardly any for taxes, basically nothing to rely on except past experiences, which were often fudged intentionally. That counts double for foreigners.

A lot of that was down to significant fluctuations over time, agricultural and technological advances and other factors which play no role in the fantastically stable setting of Westeros.

I do think people would have a pretty fair idea of the numbers, and the primary factors which could affect them.

However, the greater variable in feudal armies is the relative loyalties of your barons, and that can cause wide variances in the amount of men you field, and how effectively/quickly you field them.

[TheCrannogDweller]

I just want to mention two more components here.

First, time. I saw the argument that the North has become depopulated since Torrhen's day - but another reason for why he could march 30 000 to Robb's less than 20 000 is time. The King Who Knelt most likely had more time to assemble his troops than the Young Wolf did.

There is also the size of the various regions. The North is obviously the largest - and so the slowest to assemble its forces. The Westerlands, on the other hand, are pretty tightly packed (same for the Reach) and can assemble armies faster - especially under Tywin's iron fist.

As far as Dorne goes - nobody has really waged a war with them since Daeron's failed conquest (except that laughable business Aegon IV tried). The closest other lords of Westeros have come to exploring Dorne was the War of the Ninepenny Kings - and there is a good chance that even then the Targaryen forces were transported by sea, rather than by way of the passes and the Dornish desert.

The argument that the Reach and Stormlords should have a better understanding of Dorne's strength, also doesn't hold much water. They fight a lot of border skirmishes - but rarely full scale wars. So, the border houses (like Yronwoods, Manwoodys and Fowlers to the south and Dondarrions, Carons and Oakhearts to the north) would be fighting for generations, but that doesn't mean that every conflict involved the Martells, Tyrells/Gardeners and Baratheons/Durrandons.

[Stormland's Fury]

For the nth time. There are no standing armies in Westeros.

Doran says they can raise that much. I have no idea what the population of Marocco nor the size of it's army is. But if it suddenly says it could draft more men in case of war than let's say France, then something is odd. The leaders of the other regions are no idiots and at least can estimate the capacity of others. Especially since we see that first hand, several times. Yet Dorne seems to be magically exempt from this.

Every region had mostly border skirmishes not only Dorne yet all the other commanders seem to know roughly what the opposing strength might be in their core regions.Also they clearly have maps with all the cities and seats of whole Westeros and that Dorne is mostly desert is no secret. Not hard to deduce that if 75% are inhabitable or fit to grow resources to sustain a larger army when you yourself rule a territory the same size but with more habitable space and fertile lands that you have more men that you possible could draft.

If Doran feels the need to establish that he has 50.000 men at his disposal than it's because the others already (correctly) estimated his true strength.

If they don't even have an estimation in the first place, why bother with the bluff because no sane commander is going to invade Dorne on their territory without knowing their strength, unless they have absolutely superiority for sure which makes the bluff completely pointless in the first place.

And again if everyone in Westeros is roughly aware of anyone's numbers why can't they estimate Dorne's numbers and think the numbers don't add up.

Doran's bluff worked not because he successfully fooled everyone but because no one gives a shit. The only thing he does, is that he may deceive potential allies who would suddenly be 20.000 men short when taking allying with him in consideration.

GRRM overestimated the numbers and then retconned it, is of course the real reason.

[Free Northman Reborn]

For the nth time. There are no standing armies in Westeros.

Doran says they can raise that much. I have no idea what the population of Marocco nor the size of it's army is. But if it suddenly says it could draft more men in case of war than let's say France, then something is odd. The leaders of the other regions are no idiots and at least can estimate the capacity of others. Especially since we see that first hand, several times. Yet Dorne seems to be magically exempt from this.

Every region had mostly border skirmishes not only Dorne yet all the other commanders seem to know roughly what the opposing strength might be in their core regions.Also they clearly have maps with all the cities and seats of whole Westeros and that Dorne is mostly desert is no secret. Not hard to deduce that if 75% are inhabitable or fit to grow resources to sustain a larger army when you yourself rule a territory the same size but with more habitable space and fertile lands that you have more men that you possible could draft.

If Doran feels the need to establish that he has 50.000 men at his disposal than it's because the others already (correctly) estimated his true strength.

If they don't even have an estimation in the first place, why bother with the bluff because no sane commander is going to invade Dorne on their territory without knowing their strength, unless they have absolutely superiority for sure which makes the bluff completely pointless in the first place.

And again if everyone in Westeros is roughly aware of anyone's numbers why can't they estimate Dorne's numbers and think the numbers don't add up.

Doran's bluff worked not because he successfully fooled everyone but because no one gives a shit. The only thing he does, is that he may deceive potential allies who would suddenly be 20.000 men short when taking allying with him in consideration.

GRRM overestimated the numbers and then retconned it, is of course the real reason.

While your last sentence is true, I totally disagree with the rest of your position and think that the reasoning Martin provided to cover up the retcon is perfectly sound.

I think you vastly overestimate the demographic knowledge the various lords have of the rest of Westeros, as well as the stability of such numbers over decades, let alone centuries or millenia.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Just reposting this, I fear it has gotten lost in the rest of the discussion :)

Doran never specifies that the 50.000 are a lie. Only that what Daeron had written in his books is a lie, and that Dorne never bothered to correct anyone on it, IIRC.

Otherwise, why send Quentyn ahead with those numbers?

Could you perhaps link that SSM? :)

[Stormland's Fury]

While your last sentence is true, I totally disagree with the rest of your position and think that the reasoning Martin provided to cover up the retcon is perfectly sound.

I think you vastly overestimate the demographic knowledge the various lords have of the rest of Westeros, as well as the stability of such numbers over decades, let alone centuries or millenia.

Well that's your opinion of course and I would agree with you if we go purely by real life and if Westeros adhered to the same rules, but we have examples of people constantly correctly knowing other regions' geography and demography.

Also Westeros is one realm not separate countries. Going by another real life example, the king of Prussia still had some basic knowledge of Bavaria, and the Holy Roman Emperor (or his court) had to have known at least an estimate of both and know what their respective territories look like.

[Jaehaerys Targaryen]

House Targaryen (Daenerys I Targaryen's forces)

• Meereen: 12,000-15,000 soldiers organized into about 10,000-12,000 infantry and 2000-5000 cavalry
  
• The Stormcrows: About 500 men serve under the Stormcrow banner
  
• Ironborn: 60 ships, 4500 dismounted raiders
  
• The Dothraki (currently in search for Daenerys and some in Meereen): 25 to 50.
  
• Dragons: 2
  
• Barristan’s Knights: 26
  
• The Mother’s Men, Stalwart Shields & The Free Brothers: they consisted of between 1000-2000 soldiers in total.
  
• The Unsullied: They numbered around 8000 in total
  

(Information: http://bryndenbfish.wordpress.com/2014/04/08/a-dragon-dawn-a-complete-analysis-of-the-upcoming-battle-of-fire-part-5-the-burning-pyramid/)

[Stormland's Fury]

If she gets a fleet, she has land forces, a navy and is the only one with an airforce.

But wouldn't really count the Ironborn yet. It's probable, but let's see what transpires there. By that logic Dany would have no forces at all atm since she's alone in the Dothraki Sea and presumably kept captive.

[Frey Pie]

What exactly is being argued here, with reference to Jon's estimate of the Mountain Clans numbers?

I think it is quite obvious that a good Lord Paramount has a fairly good idea of the numbers that each of his bannerlords could raise. The better the Lord Paramount, the more precise his estimate would be. Hence, I am sure Eddard as the top military commander of all Lord Paramounts in Westeros, had a very good grasp of each bannerlord's potential. Mace Tyrell, in contrast, likely has a far looser grasp of the Reach's numers.

In any case, I further think that each Lord Paramount would try very hard to keep this information top secret, and in fact spread disinformation about it in the way Doran did.

So I think it is very clear that Stannis has a very bad understanding of what the North's potential truly is, just like Eddard would have a fairly inaccurate estimate for the Stormlands' potential. Most likely they would base it on what each region had raised in previous wars, where records were kept.

Hence, Stannis might have read some Maester's treatise on Aegon's Conquest, and on that basis, may estimate that the North can raise the 30k men that Torhenn raised. His lack of knowledge of the finer detail was quite clear when he didn't have a clue about the 3000 men just sitting around ready to be raised by the Mountain Clans.

Similarly, it is probably quite easy for Doran to misrepresent Dorne's numbers, based on one or two incorrect historical accounts from a few centuries ago.

True

I just want to mention two more components here.

First, time. I saw the argument that the North has become depopulated since Torrhen's day - but another reason for why he could march 30 000 to Robb's less than 20 000 is time. The King Who Knelt most likely had more time to assemble his troops than the Young Wolf did.

There is also the size of the various regions. The North is obviously the largest - and so the slowest to assemble its forces. The Westerlands, on the other hand, are pretty tightly packed (same for the Reach) and can assemble armies faster - especially under Tywin's iron fist.

As far as Dorne goes - nobody has really waged a war with them since Daeron's failed conquest (except that laughable business Aegon IV tried). The closest other lords of Westeros have come to exploring Dorne was the War of the Ninepenny Kings - and there is a good chance that even then the Targaryen forces were transported by sea, rather than by way of the passes and the Dornish desert.

The argument that the Reach and Stormlords should have a better understanding of Dorne's strength, also doesn't hold much water. They fight a lot of border skirmishes - but rarely full scale wars. So, the border houses (like Yronwoods, Manwoodys and Fowlers to the south and Dondarrions, Carons and Oakhearts to the north) would be fighting for generations, but that doesn't mean that every conflict involved the Martells, Tyrells/Gardeners and Baratheons/Durrandons.

And true

[Stormland's Fury]

True

And true

And still irrelevant to what I actually was saying.

[Free Northman Reborn]

And still irrelevant to what I actually was saying.

[TheCrannogDweller]

And still irrelevant to what I actually was saying.

I wasn't aware that we're under a legal obligation to be relevant to what Your Grace was saying. I was remiss. I deeply apologize.

[The Red Lion]

The North: 38,000~42,000

Robb's Host: 18,000

Manderly's army: ~10,000 (not sure if it includes their sailors or not, could be bigger)

Ramsay's Host: 600

Remaining Umber and Karstark: ~1000

Ser Rodrik's Host: 2000

Mountain Clans: 3000

And then there's the southern lords who only contributed with 6,000 soldiers to Robb's host, and I believe they must have at least 4,000 more, perhaps reaching 5,000.

Riverlands: 25,000~30,000

Renly estimated that Robb's army, together with the riverlands, would have 40,000, leaving 20,000 for the total riverlands strength, but I think that is a understatement.

The freys alone were able to raise 6,000 men, and even though they were the most powerful bannermen, the tully's probably could raise at least another 6,000. And they have a lot of other powerful bannermen (Darry, Mallister, Vance, Bracken, Piper, Whent, Blackwood), all of which, combined, might be able of raising at least 10,000 soldiers. And then there are all the smaller bannermen and landed knights, which I suppose could raise about 3 to 5 thousand more (This one is a complete guess).

Counting everything up:

Tully: ~6000

Frey: 6000

Major bannermen: ~10,000

Minor bannermen: ~4,000

Westerlands: 45,000~55,000

Tywin raised about 30,000 soldiers in the beggining of the war (in the lowest estimate), with the true number probably being about 40,000. At least 15,000 thousand got captured/killed under Jaime, with Tywin suffering minor losses in his riverlands campaign and the in the blackwater (I estimate his losses at about 6,000). Then you had Stafford's army, about 12,000, which got destroyed by Robb's army. In ADWD, Jaime's army has about 12,000 soldiers and is shrinking every day.

Tywin original host: ~35,000

Stafford: ~12,000

Jaime's army is probably made up of the remnants of Tywin's host, so I won't count it.

The Stormlands: 30,000~45,000

Stannis was able of mustering 25-30K soldiers for the Blackwater, but those are not the definitive number for the stormlands. Due to his religion, the fact that he killed his brother and the alliance the stormlands had with the reach before Renly died, I doubt that all of the stormlords joined him. I'd wager that about 50-60% joined him to the blackwater. Stannis already had a 6,000 strong army and the florents had 2000 soldiers, accounting for 8,000 outsiders on the Blackwater battle. With those numbers in mind, the lowest estimate for the stormlands is 30,000 and the highest is about 45,000 (only if my theory that not every stormlord joined stannis. If the entire might of the stormlands was at the blackwater, they would be able to muster only a meager 17,000, which I believe is bs)

The Reach: 105,000~120,000

Renly's host is said to have more than 100,000 thousand soldiers, probably from 100-120 thousand. If we take the Stormlands prediction into account, the lowest estimate would be 54,000 while the highest would be 90,000. I believe it is probably something between those two, but closer to 90,000, perhaps 80K is the best estimative. But those eighty thousand are not the entire strength of the reach. The most powerful minor house in Westeros, the Hightowers, did not send any soldiers (They are said to be capable of fielding three times more soldiers than any other lord of the reach, and estimates from another topic put them at the ultimate lowest in the 6,000s, based on the florent strength, and in their ultimate highest in nearly 30,000, based on Redwyne strength, though I believe neither of those are right, and their power is probably about 15-18,000) and that the army is completely land based, and so the sailors of the Redwyne fleet are not accounted (they have 200 ships, which, in the lowest estimate, with most being trade vessels and few true warships, would mean 10,000 sailors, while in the highest estimate, in which all are warships, the estimate would be at about 20,000. I personally believe it is the first estimative, about 10,000 sailors)

Other than these two major lords, due to Mace Tyrell being an oaf, I bet lots of other lords sent smaller forces then they could muster or did not send men at all.

Adding everything up:

Tyrell-Renly Host: 80,000

Hightower: 15,000~18,000

Redwyne: ~12,000

soldiers not sent or at home: ~15,000(?)

Absolute minimum would be about 70,000. Absolute max would be about 160,000.

Dorne: ~18,000

Even though a lot of people say that dorne can field 50,000 spears, that is a wrong number and it has been stated by doran himself in the books. Dorne is the least populous mainland kingdom, one of the poorest and largely desertic. The dornish host during Robert's Rebellion had about 15,000 soldiers, but I guess they still had some troops at home to defend the dornish pass in case they lost the war. All in all, I believe the dornish have at the absolute minimum 15,000 soldiers and at the maximum, 20,000.

The Vale: ~40,000 (not known.)

Littlefinger said that the Lords Declarant would be able of raising 20,000 men against him. They were the seven most powerful lords of the vale, from 40 total noble houses. If we take the riverlands estimates into account here, we see that the major bannermen there (including the frey) accounted for about about 2/3 of the total force, which would indicate that the vale would be able to supply 30,000 men.

However, it is important to keep in mind that the riverlands are very decentralized. In the westerlands, the most centralized of all the regions, bannermen forces probably account for less than a third of the total strength. To properly estimate the strength of the Vale, we would need to know how centralized on the Arryns they are. If they are like the Lannister, the Vale would raise 60,000 (though that's ridiculous), while of they were like the Reach, they would probably raise less than 30,000. My personal estimate is that they can probably raise as much as the North or the Stormlands, about 40,000.

The Iron Islands: 25,000~40,000

The iron islands are different from the rest of the other kingdoms because of their warrior culture. GRRM said that every man who is physically capable there picks up a sword sometime in their lives. That significantly ups the soldier count for the ironmen. If we take their fleets into account, they have 100 ships in the iron fleet, so about 15,000 soldiers there, and A LOT of longships. some say a thousand longships, other say probably 500. I'll put my estimate in 800 longships, which would mean 16,000 soldiers. So, 30,000 soldiers, that thinking that they only have the soldiers that fit in their ships. could be a lot more, or hey could have more ships than soldiers. My own estimate is at about 30,000.

Crownlands: ~10,000

The crownlands do not have any major lords, with their entire strength based on KL. The gold cloaks had 6,000 soldiers at their peak and i guess all the other lords combined could probably raise another 5,000 or so.

CONCLUSION(and my personal opinion):

1)Reach: 120,000

2)Westerlands: 50,000

3)Vale: 40,000

4)North: 38,000

5)Stormlands: 35,000

6)Iron Islands: 30,000

7)Riverlands: 28,000

8)Dorne: 15,000

9)Crownlands: 10,000

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

With total muster the Reach 100000, the Vale 35000, the North 35000, the Westerlands 30000 , the Riverlands 25000 , the Stormlands 25000 , Dorne 25000 , Iron Islands 20000. This is the total mobilization of troops but not augmented by the power to buy sellswords which would exclude Dorne and the Iron Islands.

[The Red Lion]

On the north, I forgot about Skagos and including the wildlings after they settle, but I dont really think it would matter that much. I tend not to believe that skagos can field as much soldiers as a great stark bannermen. they probably can field about 2,000 at max, with my personal input being less than a thousand (but they all ride on unicorns so fuck the rest)

[Stormland's Fury]

I wasn't aware that we're under a legal obligation to be relevant to what Your Grace was saying. I was remiss. I deeply apologize.

If you were replying directly to me to prove a point then yes. Why did you comment then?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

On the north, I forgot about Skagos and including the wildlings after they settle, but I dont really think it would matter that much. I tend not to believe that skagos can field as much soldiers as a great stark bannermen. they probably can field about 2,000 at max, with my personal input being less than a thousand (but they all ride on unicorns so fuck the rest)

A hint: In the North, a Lord with 1,000 men qualifies as a "petty Lord". Most Lordships average about 3,000 men. Skagos has three Lords, none of them petty.

Similar for the Riverlands and the Vale.

A couple other assumptions are off as well. For example Stannis' forces at the Blackwater were only 20,000, Stormlords, Reachmen and Crownlanders combined. Fleet excluded.

Furthermore, the Lannister army currently in the Riverlands is anything but 12,000. 1,200 would fit better: 250 with Jaime, a couple dozen with the Mountain, about half the number of the Freys at Riverrun with Daven. I put the total at 1,3xx.

[TheCrannogDweller]

If you were replying directly to me to prove a point then yes. Why did you comment then?

I was replying to you, replying to someone who wasn't replying to you, that he had to reply to you.

Boy, that sounds confusing.

<snip>

Renly's host of 100 000 men included both Reach and Stormlords - so your estimation about the Reach is a bit too high, I think. 100 000 men, with the Redwynes and the Hightowers, would be a more accurate guess, I think.

Also, you are exaggerating Jaime's losses - and Stafford's, too. At least 4000 of the 15 000 men Jaime had besieging Riverrun retreated to the Golden tooth.

Part of those 4000 became the core of Stafford's army, which after being defeated by Robb still had survivors - the entire Lannister force under Daven is made up from those.

And while I can't back this with evidence, I think you're lowballing the Riverlands numbers. I would put them at least at 40 000. Though this is mostly from other people's opinions and my own gut feeling.

[Stormland's Fury]

I was replying to you, replying to someone who wasn't replying to you, that he had to reply to you.

Boy, that sounds confusing.

Yes, and I was never disagreeing with most of your assessments in the first place. I got the impression they were used (not by you) to make a point against something I wasn't arguing.

It's confusing, and I might mixed it up, but no need to get so condescending in that case. Honest mistake then.

[TheCrannogDweller]

It's confusing, and I might mixed it up, but no need to get so condescending in that case. Honest mistake then.

Yours might've been, but mine was pretty deliberate.

So, sorry for yanking your chain. Seriously this time. :)