R+L = J v 86

[Ygritte]

I don't really bother much with the travel times so I'm just going to take your word on that. :) And yeah, I agree that it would not have taken long to lift the Siege. It doesn't appear that the Tyrells and Redwynes put up much resistance. Certainly no battle took place otherwise we would have heard about it.

IIRC, it's specifically mentioned that there isn't a battle. Ned basically shows up and says "Bob won" and the Tyrells and Redwynes are like "ok bye."

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

He would have needed less time for that.. a month after the Sack, he would have arrived at ToJ..

Well, let's work it out.

In ADwD, we get travel speeds:

Hard riding for 100 leagues. 6 days

Regular riding for 100 leagues: 8 days

Armies marching for 100 leagues: 12 days.

Now, in a AGoT, Tyrion and Jon take about 3 weeks to get to the Wall regular riding. We find them two weeks out, but they are nowhere near the Wall, so I'm assuming another week.

On the map, Storm's End to King's Landing is 2/3 the distance of Winterfell to the Wall. So, it would be about two weeks riding. But, they aren't riding, they are marching. So, it's at least three weeks to march from KL to Storm's End.

Then, it's off to the ToJ. The ToJ is a little longer than the distance from Winterfell to the Wall, so we're looking at a little more than three weeks. They could hard ride some, but it's through mountains so its way slower. All things considered, again, at least three weeks. Probably more like four since the road probably winds and you can't hard ride horses up and down mountains.

So, one month and three weeks of travel time. And I put one more week on for Ned's waiting for Robert in KL and dealing with the seige in Storm's End.

Two months.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

IIRC, it's specifically mentioned that there isn't a battle. Ned basically shows up and says "Bob won" and the Tyrells and Redwynes are like "ok bye."

You're forgetting all of the logistics of signing forms, wheeling and dealing, passing fiefs to different lords, and such. At least a few days, probably longer.

[Ygritte]

But you still can't assume Lyanna had already given birth by the time Ned even left Storm's End. If we take the 2 months for granted, she could have gone through the last month or two of pregnancy, given birth, then come down with the puerpural fever all while he was traveling. You can't assume she was healthy during late pregnancy--even in our own time, lots of women end up on bed rest--and we also don't know at what point the word actually reached them that the war was lost. They're not going to flee with the heir while they still think Rhaegar's going to win, and once they do find out, it may be too late to travel.

[Consigliere]

I still contend that Martin leaves things deliberately vague when in comes to travel times so as not to get bogged down i.e. stating in one part of the books that it would take X amount of days to get from Point A to Point B only for that to impact the story later when the plot calls for a character to get from point A to B in less than X number of days. Travel times are not set in stone, imo.

[BearQueen87]

But you still can't assume Lyanna had already given birth by the time Ned even left Storm's End. If we take the 2 months for granted, she could have gone through the last month or two of pregnancy, given birth, then come down with the puerpural fever all while he was traveling. You can't assume she was healthy during late pregnancy--even in our own time, lots of women end up on bed rest--and we also don't know at what point the word actually reached them that the war was lost. They're not going to flee with the heir while they still think Rhaegar's going to win, and once they do find out, it may be too late to travel.

I think the fact that Ned finds her in a "bed of blood" and that the room still smells of "blood and roses" would indicate that baby boy Jon was born recently, not two moths prior.

I still contend that Martin leaves things deliberately vague when in comes to travel times so as not to get bogged down i.e. stating in one part of the books that it would take X amount of days to get from Point A to Point B only for that to impact the story later when the plot calls for a character to get from point A to B in less than X number of days. Travel times are not set in stone, imo.

I agree. There are a variety of factors: how hard you ride, the kind of mount you have, the roads you take.

[Ygritte]

I still contend that Martin leaves things deliberately vague when in comes to travel times so as not to get bogged down i.e. stating in one part of the books that it would take X amount of days to get from Point A to Point B only for that to impact the story later when the plot calls for a character to get from point A to B in less than X number of days. Travel times are not set in stone, imo.

Agreed. I don't think he has worked them out to the nth degree; I think he wings them, like High Valyrian.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

But you still can't assume Lyanna had already given birth by the time Ned even left Storm's End. If we take the 2 months for granted, she could have gone through the last month or two of pregnancy, given birth, then come down with the puerpural fever all while he was traveling. You can't assume she was healthy during late pregnancy--even in our own time, lots of women end up on bed rest--and we also don't know at what point the word actually reached them that the war was lost. They're not going to flee with the heir while they still think Rhaegar's going to win, and once they do find out, it may be too late to travel.

I accept that men must make difficult decissions. But if we accept that the world is complicated and nuanced (and of course it is) than the "Jamie Dilemma" must come into play. Oaths contradict. Do we protect Rhaegar's mistress? Do we protect Viserys? Do we protect a bastard? Do we protect a potential king? Do we protect Rhaegar's secrets?

And we should also accept the "Barristaning" happens (convincing yourself that your personal desires are actually your oath).

The ToJ becomes murky once we accept that these are human beings and not Asimov Robots following laws.

[Ygritte]

I think the fact that Ned finds her in a "bed of blood" and that the room still smells of "blood and roses" would indicate that baby boy Jon was born recently, not two moths prior.

Exactly. It's not two months post-birth. If it was, she'd have either died of or recovered from her fever by the time Ned got there.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

Exactly. It's not two months post-birth. If it was, she'd have either died of or recovered from her fever by the time Ned got there.

Then Lyanna was 7 months pregnant when Aerys and Aegon died and there would be a 50% chance that Viserys would be king. And so the KG should leave the tower.

[Ygritte]

Then Lyanna was 7 months pregnant when Aerys and Aegon died and there would be a 50% chance that Viserys would be king. And so the KG should leave the tower.

And potentially cause the miscarriage of the maybe-heir, instead of staying in a place they think is safely hidden?

And again, we don't know how long it took the news of the deaths to reach them.

[Consigliere]

Then Lyanna was 7 months pregnant when Aerys and Aegon died and there would be a 50% chance that Viserys would be king. And so the KG should leave the tower.

That makes no sense assuming R+L= legitimate J. If the KG leave before Lyanna gives birth only for her child to be born male and thus heir then that would be a dereliction of their primary duty. Much easier to wait until Lyanna gives birth before deciding their next move. If Lyanna had given birth to a girl then I think that the KG would have tried to get to Viserys.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Now, in a AGoT, Tyrion and Jon take about 3 weeks to get to the Wall regular riding. We find them two weeks out, but they are nowhere near the Wall, so I'm assuming another week.

Tyrion and Jon haven't arrived at the Wall yet on day 18 of their travel, though, don't forget, after several days of travelling, they crossed into "wilder land", which would have slowed them down.

Later on in Game, Jon thinks to himself that he could be back at Winterfell within a month, showing that from Castla Black to Winterfell takes less than 30 days.

In addition, we know from Samwell that within a month from Castle Black, you find yourself in the Barrowlands. So less than 30 days south of CB you are in the Barrowlands. The Barrowlands are south of Castle Black.

In between 18 and 30 days, so about 25 days from Winterfell to Castle Black.

Within a fortnight, an army travelled from KL to the Trident, fought there and lost, and another army marched back. Assuming that a day or two were used to help all those who were injured, that gives 6 to 7 days for an army in a hurry to travel from the Trident to KL.

Ned, Robert, and court, cover that distance in 14 days in a slower pace, though with a big group.

Compared to the length of the Wall, the distance between the Trident to KL is about 550 miles, the distance between Storm's End and ToJ 645 miles, and the distance between Storm's End and KL 480 miles.

If Ned could cover 550 miles with his army in 6 to 7 days, from KL to Storm's End would technically take only a fortnight.. Take in consideration that Ned would have stayed at Storm's End for a few days most likely (since I suppose that's where he discovered Lyanna's location), that he would have stayed at KL for a few days (to wait for Robert to arrive from the Trident, and then to argue with Robert over Aegon and Rhaenys), and that the road to ToJ would have been a bit slower than the previous once.. You arrive at about a month. ;) Seeing as how Dany was conceived about a week before the Sack, and was thus born 9 months later, and Jon was born 8 to 9 months prior to Dany, thus within a week before the Sack, until three weeks after, and it being usual (as has been discussed here, IIRC) that the fever Lyanna most likely had usually kills within a week, it all fits..

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

And potentially cause the miscarriage of the maybe-heir, instead of staying in a place they think is safely hidden?

And again, we don't know how long it took the news of the deaths to reach them.

Stay in place and almost certainly die or try and travel with a 7 month pregnant woman? Which is "protection"?

No communication? Wouldn't "protection" be having a method of communication?

Hanging out at a tower doesn't sound like protection.

And speaking of that....

Why not try and talk to Ned? It's the "Queen's" brother and "King's" uncle. Why not tell him the deal and try to negociate with him? Seems like better protection than trying to win a 7 on 3 fight.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Then Lyanna was 7 months pregnant when Aerys and Aegon died and there would be a 50% chance that Viserys would be king. And so the KG should leave the tower.

It's not about when Aerys and Aegon died, and how far along Lyanna was. It's about when they learned about the deaths of Aerys and Aegon. Aerys and Aegon most likely died before Jon's birth, but if the KG didn't hear about it until after Jon's birth, there was no dillema at all.

[UnmaskedLurker]

I think the fact that Ned finds her in a "bed of blood" and that the room still smells of "blood and roses" would indicate that baby boy Jon was born recently, not two moths prior.

While the bed of blood is an allusion to childbirth, I don't think most people think the blood that was smelled was from the birth itself. The infection can be accompanied by continued bleeding. I think most people who have analyzed these passages believe that when Ned arrives, it was a number of days after birth--her bed of course had been cleaned many times since birth, but she keeps bleeding, which is probably one of the reasons that she dies. The roses were probably brought in to help cover the odor. But I agree, she is not likely to survive 2 months in that state. My quick research suggests that people who die from this condition die within about 10 days of child birth.

[BearQueen87]

While the bed of blood is an allusion to childbirth, I don't think most people think the blood that was smelled was from the birth itself. The infection can be accompanied by continued bleeding. I think most people who have analyzed these passages believe that when Ned arrives, it was a number of days after birth--her bed of course had been cleaned many times since birth, but she keeps bleeding, which is probably one of the reasons that she dies. The roses were probably brought in to help cover the odor. But I agree, she is not likely to survive 2 months in that state. My quick research suggests that people who die from this condition die within about 10 days of child birth.

Yes I was looking at Wikipedia while reading this thread page. The blood is an allusion to the fact that she's given childbirth but the actual bloody bed and smell is the infection. My bad.

EDIT: recently being about 3 -10 days according to the Wikipedia page.

[Ygritte]

Stay in place and almost certainly die or try and travel with a 7 month pregnant woman? Which is "protection"?

No communication? Wouldn't "protection" be having a method of communication?

Hanging out at a tower doesn't sound like protection.

And speaking of that....

Why not try and talk to Ned? It's the "Queen's" brother and "King's" uncle. Why not tell him the deal and try to negociate with him? Seems like better protection than trying to win a 7 on 3 fight.

Why would they think they are going to die by staying at the tower? They think it's still secret. It's a tower that has fallen into disuse and is in the middle of nowhere in harsh terrain, and hardly anybody knows about it.

And I've said this before, but they don't negotiate with Ned because they don't trust him. They don't get to be in his head or read his POV chapters. Brother or no, he's still Bobby B's right hand man, and the Bobby B regime just murdered Rhaegar's other two kids. They don't know where his loyalties lie, and it doesn't matter what he says, they're not going to take it on faith.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

If Ned could cover 550 miles with his army in 6 to 7 days, from KL to Storm's End would technically take only a fortnight.. Take in consideration that Ned would have stayed at Storm's End for a few days most likely (since I suppose that's where he discovered Lyanna's location), that he would have stayed at KL for a few days (to wait for Robert to arrive from the Trident, and then to argue with Robert over Aegon and Rhaenys), and that the road to ToJ would have been a bit slower than the previous once.. You arrive at about a month. ;) Seeing as how Dany was conceived about a week before the Sack, and was thus born 9 months later, and Jon was born 8 to 9 months prior to Dany, thus within a week before the Sack, until three weeks after, and it being usual (as has been discussed here, IIRC) that the fever Lyanna most likely had usually kills within a week, it all fits..

I'm not sure where you're getting your mile figures from, but 7 days to cover 550 miles is insane. That's 79 miles walking every day.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

Why would they think they are going to die by staying at the tower? They think it's still secret. It's a tower that has fallen into disuse and is in the middle of nowhere in harsh terrain, and hardly anybody knows about it.

And I've said this before, but they don't negotiate with Ned because they don't trust him. They don't get to be in his head or read his POV chapters. Brother or no, he's still Bobby B's right hand man, and the Bobby B regime just murdered Rhaegar's other two kids. They don't know where his loyalties lie, and it doesn't matter what he says, they're not going to take it on faith.

Where would they get food and water? Staying at the tower is 99% chance of death. It's only the sheer luck of Ned that saved Jon.