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R+L = J v 86


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Where would they get food and water? Staying at the tower is 99% chance of death. It's only the sheer luck of Ned that saved Jon.

Well they were obviously getting food and water from somewhere because Rhaegar, Lyanna, Dayne, and Whent were there when Hightower found them. Then Rhaegar left but the 3KG and Lyanna stayed. So the must have had access to sustenance.

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Where would they get food and water? Staying at the tower is 99% chance of death. It's only the sheer luck of Ned that saved Jon.

Well, for one thing, we've speculated that there may have been an arrangement with someone like the Daynes to facilitate the accommodations there. (Hence my crackpot that Ashara was the one who leaked to Ned, and that her suicide was caused by guilt that she contributed to her brother's death, but that's another story.)

Even leaving that out, the building is not without food and water--people have been living there for a year, and they've been eating something! We don't know exactly where they're getting supplies. Maybe it's the Daynes. Maybe there's a village and they send a servant into town from time to time to buy food. Who knows? But they're seriously not all sitting there for a year eating nothing.

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Well they were obviously getting food and water from somewhere because Rhaegar, Lyanna, Dayne, and Whent were there when Hightower found them. Then Rhaegar left but the 3KG and Lyanna stayed. So the must have had access to sustenance.

Which means they had access to communication and their "secret location" would likely have gotten out. In fact, it did. Ned found them.

When it comes down to it, staying at the tower is not protection.

Assuming Lyanna died of a fever after childbirth, they had 2 months to get pregnant Lyanna out of there. They didn't.

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It's not about when Aerys and Aegon died, and how far along Lyanna was. It's about when they learned about the deaths of Aerys and Aegon. Aerys and Aegon most likely died before Jon's birth, but if the KG didn't hear about it until after Jon's birth, there was no dillema at all.

I agree. Skinchanging Sweetrobin acknowledges the importance of the distances when discussing how long it takes for Ned to get from KL to Stormlands and then to ToJ, but ignores the importance of these distances in terms of getting information to ToJ. ToJ has no ravens. Apparently, they had a means of communication--probably with someone at Starfall, which is quite a bit south and west of ToJ. And we don't know how often messages were sent to or from Starfall (or wherever else they were getting their information). So it is reasonable to conclude that by the time news of the sack of KL gets to ToJ, Lyanna either has given birth or is a week or so from giving birth, in which case it would make sense to wait a week or so to find out if the baby is a boy (after the death of the rest of the royal family, no one would be entitled to be crowned until Lyanna gave birth to find out the gender of the child). If Jon had been a girl, all 3 KG most likely would not have stayed at the ToJ because their duty would have shifted to Viserys.

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I'm not sure where you're getting your mile figures from, but 7 days to cover 550 miles is insane. That's 79 miles walking every day.

Rossart was Hand for a fortnight = 14 days.

Rossart became Hand after Chelsted was burned - Jon Darry was still in KL. We assume he left the next day with Rhaegar to the Trident.

Rossart ceased to be Hand when Jaime killed him, on the day of the Sack.

Thus an army marched from KL to the Trident, fought, lost, and an army marched back from the Trident to KL in 14 days. That's on average 7 days for each, but that is with the assumption that they started fighting immediately after they arrived, and left immediately after the fighting was done, which seems to not be the case.

So the 6 to 7 days is from the books, I'm afraid ;)

As to the miles.. With the Wall being 100 leagues long, and with 1 league being 3 miles, the Wall is 300 miles long. The miles have been calculated using the Wall as a point of measure.

A table with measurement results can be found here

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Which means they had access to communication and their "secret location" would likely have gotten out. In fact, it did. Ned found them.

When it comes down to it, staying at the tower is not protection.

Assuming Lyanna died of a fever after childbirth, they had 2 months to get pregnant Lyanna out of there. They didn't.

Aren't you assuming that whoever is getting them food and water isn't already on their side? Whoever was going it (Starfall?) isn't going to sell them out to Ned. However Ned found out, I don't think it was the same people who were helping the 3KG/Lyanna and Rhaegar survive.

We don't know how Ned found out. And moving a sick pregnant woman is just as dangerous as staying. The chance of a miscarriage AND dead of Lyanna is super high if Lyanna is already sick.

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Aren't you assuming that whoever is getting them food and water isn't already on their side? Whoever was going it (Starfall?) isn't going to sell them out to Ned. However Ned found out, I don't think it was the same people who were helping the 3KG/Lyanna and Rhaegar survive.

We don't know how Ned found out.

My guess would be, the same person who helped Gerold Hightower find them.. Perhaps someone at the Siege of Storm's End, since that's where Ned arrived first, and since the Siege was already going on when Hightower left KL to find Rhaegar.

That would be my guess, at least. It could have been two different people, though. But one person seems, to me at least, more likely.

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Which means they had access to communication and their "secret location" would likely have gotten out. In fact, it did. Ned found them.

When it comes down to it, staying at the tower is not protection.

Assuming Lyanna died of a fever after childbirth, they had 2 months to get pregnant Lyanna out of there. They didn't.

You fail to recognise that news about the sack may not have immediately reached them. Hindsight is 20/20, isn't it? It is highly unlikely that they had 2 months to get Lyanna out.

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Rossart was Hand for a fortnight = 14 days.

Rossart became Hand after Chelsted was burned - Jon Darry was still in KL. We assume he left the next day with Rhaegar to the Trident.

Rossart ceased to be Hand when Jaime killed him, on the day of the Sack.

Thus an army marched from KL to the Trident, fought, lost, and an army marched back from the Trident to KL in 14 days. That's on average 7 days for each, but that is with the assumption that they started fighting immediately after they arrived, and left immediately after the fighting was done, which seems to not be the case.

So the 6 to 7 days is from the books, I'm afraid ;)

As to the miles.. With the Wall being 100 leagues long, and with 1 league being 3 miles, the Wall is 300 miles long. The miles have been calculated using the Wall as a point of measure.

A table with measurement results can be found here

I think I'd rather assume someone's POV is off on Rossart than to assume that men can consistantly march 80 miles a day.

I can't see much justication for putting Ned's trip under two months.

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My guess would be, the same person who helped Gerold Hightower find them.. Perhaps someone at the Siege of Storm's End, since that's where Ned arrived first, and since the Siege was already going on when Hightower left KL to find Rhaegar.

That would be my guess, at least. It could have been two different people, though. But one person seems, to me at least, more likely.

One person seems more likely (the more people who know the more likely it is that the news will travel and spread).

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Which means they had access to communication and their "secret location" would likely have gotten out. In fact, it did. Ned found them.

When it comes down to it, staying at the tower is not protection.

Assuming Lyanna died of a fever after childbirth, they had 2 months to get pregnant Lyanna out of there. They didn't.

People keep explaining but you keep refusing to understand. The location was secret for a long time. It was reasonable to believe it would stay a secret. They were wrong--but they were still acting reasonably given that the location stayed a secret for a very long time (other than Hightower, and obviously they thought whatever method he used did not put the location in danger). They had some means of communication and supplies, but they obviously thought they could trust this source (agree that the Daynes are likely candidates) to keep the location secret. It had been kept secret for quite a long time.

They had NO means of absolute protection. Staying was not protection, but leaving was not protection either. They had no good options. They had a very pregnant woman and then a sick woman who had just given birth. So it was reasonable for them to assume that no matter how risking staying might be--it had stayed secret for a long time and leaving would be even riskier.

Again, it is likely that they did not have 2 months to get Lyanna out of ToJ. We don't know how often they got communication from their source (likely Starfall), so they might have found out about the sack only shortly before the birth or maybe even after the birth. But even if they had 2 months to leave--again, leaving was not necessarily less risky than staying. One more time--Dayne and Whent had been at ToJ for a long time and its location remained a secret all that time (other than Hightower--and obviously his method of discovery did not make them fear that others could find out the same way). She also might have been on "bed rest" during the 2 months. Traveling with a 7-8 month pregnant woman entails severe risk of miscarriage. Staying at ToJ until they could arrange safe passage for a fully recovered Lyanna and baby was their best strategy under the circumstances. Why is that so hard for you to accept?

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Here is an ssm concerning travel times






[How big is Westeros? Is it the size of Europe, or even larger?]



I have deliberately tried to be vague about such things, so I don't have obsessive fans with rulers measuring distances on the map and telling me Ned couldn't get from X to Y in the time I say he did.


However, if you really must know, you can figure out the distances for yourself. The Wall is a hundred leagues long. A league is three miles. Go from there.


But if you turn up any mistakes in travel times by using that measure, let it be your secret.





I think this ssm shows that the demands of the plot will determine travel times. The travel times will not be completely absurd but at the same time will not be completely realistic either.


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You fail to recognise that news about the sack may not have immediately reached them. Hindsight is 20/20, isn't it? It is highly unlikely that they had 2 months to get Lyanna out.

I'm not failing to recognize anyhing. I'm saying that world is filled with difficult decissions. Thus, the "Jamie Dilemma" and "Barristaning" are in play. Kingsaguards are not robots.

But, on a very basic and obvious level, hanging at the Tower of Joy and then fighting Ned to the death is really, really, really stupid if your mission is protecting the king.

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I'm not failing to recognize anyhing. I'm saying that world is filled with difficult decissions. Thus, the "Jamie Dilemma" and "Barristaning" are in play. Kingsaguards are not robots.

But, on a very basic and obvious level, hanging at the Tower of Joy and then fighting Ned to the death is really, really, really stupid if your mission is protecting the king.

OK, what are you actually arguing? I can't tell if you're saying you think the Kingsguard messed up, or if you're saying none of this actually happened and R+L=/=J. Certainly many characters in the books have made mistakes trying to do what they thought was the most honorable thing.

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Here is an ssm concerning travel times

I think this ssm shows that the demands of the plot will determine travel times. The travel times will not be completely absurd but at the same time will not be completely realistic either.

That SSM pretty much proves that GRRM hasn't set in stone the distance or time it takes to get from one place to the next. It's the fans who become obsessed with it, when they want to prove or disprove a theory.

I'm not failing to recognize anyhing. I'm saying that world is filled with difficult decissions. Thus, the "Jamie Dilemma" and "Barristaning" are in play. Kingsaguards are not robots.

But, on a very basic and obvious level, hanging at the Tower of Joy and then fighting Ned to the death is really, really, really stupid if your mission is protecting the king.

So is leaving the tower and traveling if your mission is to protect the king. And their mission wasn't just to protect the king, it's to protect Lyanna too. They cannot move her pre-birth without risk of miscarriage and death for Lyanna. Once she gives birth, they have a VERY sick woman and a newborn child. Either you leave Lyanna behind to die and take a risk on the road and sea with a babe (you'll need a wet nurse post haste--one you can trust) or you stay and hope that if you're discovered you can fight off who ever comes. They are the KG after all, supposedly the best knights around.

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I think I'd rather assume someone's POV is off on Rossart than to assume that men can consistantly march 80 miles a day.

I can't see much justication for putting Ned's trip under two months.

As answer, see the bolded part:

Here is an ssm concerning travel times

I think this ssm shows that the demands of the plot will determine travel times. The travel times will not be completely absurd but at the same time will not be completely realistic either.

Jaime was in KL. It was a stressing time. Assuming that Jaime is wrong, seems a bit strange to me. Especially since the burning of Chelsted is grifted in his memory clearly, as was the Sack.

But compare it to the 14 days it too the court to travel the same distance. An army would move faster.

And who says Ned didn't take all those on a horse? Ned certainly came on a horse ;) And it was important to take the capitol as quickly as possible. Why assume they were all on foot? Or am I forgetting a quote now?

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I'm not failing to recognize anyhing. I'm saying that world is filled with difficult decissions. Thus, the "Jamie Dilemma" and "Barristaning" are in play. Kingsaguards are not robots.

But, on a very basic and obvious level, hanging at the Tower of Joy and then fighting Ned to the death is really, really, really stupid if your mission is protecting the king.

As others have already pointed out: The KG cannot read Ned's thoughts. Ned was Roberts right hand man and one of the leaders in the Rebellion. The same rebels who they believe usurped the Targaryen dynasty and murdered Elia and Rhaegars other two children. From their pov, Ned could not be trusted. The KG are not robots but the gist of the ToJ scene makes it crystal clear why they were there.

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Again, it is likely that they did not have 2 months to get Lyanna out of ToJ. We don't know how often they got communication from their source (likely Starfall), so they might have found out about the sack only shortly before the birth or maybe even after the birth. But even if they had 2 months to leave--again, leaving was not necessarily less risky than staying. One more time--Dayne and Whent had been at ToJ for a long time and its location remained a secret all that time (other than Hightower--and obviously his method of discovery did not make them fear that others could find out the same way). She also might have been on "bed rest" during the 2 months. Traveling with a 7-8 month pregnant woman entails severe risk of miscarriage. Staying at ToJ until they could arrange safe passage for a fully recovered Lyanna and baby was their best strategy under the circumstances. Why is that so hard for you to accept?

Have you ever met a 7 month pregnant woman? Pretty mobil.

Also, none of it matters. Jon is born when Ned arrived. Dayne should have left with him immediately. They have fresh horse - Ned doesn't. Dayne knows Dorne - Ned doesn't.

A five minute head start is all he needed.

Running is protecting. They should have run.

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Have you ever met a 7 month pregnant woman? Pretty mobil.

Also, none of it matters. Jon is born when Ned arrived. Dayne should have left with him immediately. They have fresh horse - Ned doesn't. Dayne knows Dorne - Ned doesn't.

A five minute head start is all he needed.

Running is protecting. They should have run.

Actually a 7 month pregnant woman is NOT mobile. There is a reason why many woman go on bed rest or are told at minimum to do only very light moving. So their choice was to take Lyanna who was probably already sick and put her on a horse/wagon? She would give birth on the road and most likely die from the same fever that she dies of in the tower. And now you've got a dead Princess and a premature baby who will probably die before you ever get to the Narrow Sea

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Actually a 7 month pregnant woman is NOT mobile. There is a reason why many woman go on bed rest or are told at minimum to do only very light moving. So their choice was to take Lyanna who was probably already sick and put her on a horse/wagon? She would give birth on the road and most likely die from the same fever that she dies of in the tower. And now you've got a dead Princess and a premature baby who will probably die before you ever get to the Narrow Sea

Yup. We forget they don't exactly have modern medicine! You don't want to kill the potential heir before it's even born, especially not if you're KG!

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