R+L = J v 86

[UnmaskedLurker]

I guess what I'm looking for as any indication that he was torn over his decisions. Did he stop to consider how much the realm might bleed or fight once he presents his third child, conceived and born under less than ideal circumstances?

Given that no one who would have been privy to Rhaegar's thoughts at that time likely is alive at this point in the story, I think we will only be able to speculate about that question (although maybe we get a vision that addresses this point). Whatever the answer, however, he clearly thought fulfilling the prophesy was more important than any such considerations.

[Alia of the knife]

Well, for one thing, we're assuming he tells the whole world about the prophecy thing, when IMO the text gives the impression that most people didn't really know what wheels were turning in Rhaegar's head. He cryptically announced he needed to be a warrior after spending a lot of time reading books and hanging out at Summerhall, and then he told Dany about the three heads thing, in a vision, years after he died. Aemon seems to have known too. But I don't get the impression he was trumpeting this idea to the world or that anyone outside the family knew; indeed I think there people inside the family (Aerys) who had no idea. Various people know about the prince that was promised, but not necessarily that Rhaegar saw himself or any of his kids as it. We as readers probably know more than anybody in Westeros.

And of course no one can completely prevent anyone from playing the game of thrones. The game will happen. The North might want to remove Aegon from the succession to clear the way for Jon; Dorne might want to remove Jon from it because then Rhaenys will be second in line instead of Jon. But nobody is necessarily going to know any special status for Jon, and while nothing is foolproof, I suspect Rhaegar thought it would work out fine because there was a prophecy. I actually like the guy on several levels, but overconfidence was one of his flaws IMO.

I think the "he was obcessed with prophesy" assumption is just that.

Did it play a part? Yes. Do we know how he intended to apply or interpreted it?

Selmy says know one really knew him well but Arthur.

And Kevan Lannister remembered him specifically wanting SONS which could also suggest pragmatic, dynastic concerns as much as metaphysical ones.

In the here and now, he could have made the Wall better staffed and stronger with his support.

And while I do think he had a say in turning down Cersei because he saw her for what she was, he knighted the Mountain.

I like Rhaegar, but I don't know that I would want him as my broker.

[stateofdissipation]

I think the "he was obcessed with prophesy" assumption is just that.

Did it play a part? Yes. Do we know how he intended to apply or interpreted it?

Selmy says know one really knew him well but Arthur.

And Kevan Lannister remembered him specifically wanting SONS which could also suggest pragmatic, dynastic concerns as much as metaphysical ones.

In the here and now, he could have made the Wall better staffed and stronger with his support.

Let us ignore the prophecy then. and focus on the pragmatic, dynastic concerns as much as metaphysical ones.

Pragmatic dynastic concerns:

Lineage;

1. Aerys the current king

2. Rhaegar--Aerys' heir

3. Aegon--Rhaegar's heir

4. Viserys-- Aerys' second son

Assigning 3 KG to guard a fetus outside the line of current succession does not further the pragmatic concern of the line of succession.

Military and political:

Alliance with the Martells

Alliance with Highgarden

Alliance with Lannisters

Alliance with the Starks

Alliance with the Baratheons

Alliance with the Tullys

Alliance with the Arryns

Rhaegar's actions acted to further no military or political pragmatic concerns. A non-political match (secret marriage) did nothing to secure the future of the dynasty.

Kevan Lanniser's memory of Rheagar specifically wanting SONS may suggest pragmatic, dynastic concern, Rhaegar's actions however kill that suggestion.

[BearQueen87]

Let us ignore the prophecy then. and focus on the pragmatic, dynastic concerns as much as metaphysical ones.

Pragmatic dynastic concerns:

Lineage;

1. Aerys the current king

2. Rhaegar--Aerys' heir

3. Aegon--Rhaegar's heir

4. Viserys-- Aerys' second son

Assigning 3 KG to guard a fetus outside the line of current succession does not further the pragmatic concern of the line of succession.

Military and political:

Alliance with the Martells

Alliance with Highgarden

Alliance with Lannisters

Alliance with the Starks

Alliance with the Baratheons

Alliance with the Tullys

Alliance with the Arryns

Rhaegar's actions acted to further no military or political pragmatic concerns. A non-political match (secret marriage) did nothing to secure the future of the dynasty.

Kevan Lanniser's memory of Rheagar specifically wanting SONS may suggest pragmatic, dynastic concern, Rhaegar's actions however kill that suggestion.

If Lyanna and Rhaegar married and conceived Jon, then the baby in her womb IS part of the succession.

Aerys--current King of Westeros

Rhaegar--Aerys' heir

Aegon -- Rhaegar's heir, first born son

Baby Boy Jon -- Rhegar's heir, second born son, will inherit the IT should Aegon die before having his own children

(any other children Rhaegar and Lyanna might have should Weseros have not gone to war)

Viserys -- Aerys' heir, should Rhaegr/Aegon/Baby boy Jon/ another other children between Rhaegar and Lyanna die

A marriage doesn't have to be political and open in order for the children of that union to come into succession. Why do you think lords are concerned with having many sons? Because chances are some of them will die and you need--for wont for a better term--backups.

[stateofdissipation]

If Lyanna and Rhaegar married and conceived Jon, then the baby in her womb IS part of the succession.

Aerys--current King of Westeros

Rhaegar--Aerys' heir

Aegon -- Rhaegar's heir, first born son

Baby Boy Jon -- Rhegar's heir, second born son, will inherit the IT should Aegon die before having his own children

(any other children Rhaegar and Lyanna might have should Weseros have not gone to war)

Viserys -- Aerys' heir, should Rhaegr/Aegon/Baby boy Jon/ another other children between Rhaegar and Lyanna die

A marriage doesn't have to be political and open in order for the children of that union to come into succession. Why do you think lords are concerned with having many sons? Because chances are some of them will die and you need--for wont for a better term--backups.

Ok at least we covered that it is "a baby in the womb"

Now we can assert that if the baby in the womb turns out to be a boy it would be 4th in the line of succession.

Pragmatic---Dealing or concerned with facts or actual occurrences; practical. http://www.thefreedictionary.com/pragmatic

As the baby in the womb has yet to be born, that baby being boy (and therefore in the line of succession) is not an actual occurence or a fact-- calling it a pragmatic concern is quite a stretch.

The order of succession and legitimacy were not addressed and were granted for the sake of argument. The marriage and legitimacy do not play in to the claim that Rhaegar was focused on practical matters relating to the dynasty.

A marriage doesn't have to be political

If a marriage between Lyanna and Rhaegar happened it was not political.

A political marriage which would also include backup babies would be a show of pragmatic and practical concern for the future of the dynasty. Rhaegar did not do so. To then assign him the motive of a secret nonpolitical marriage as practical and pragmatic concern for the future of the dynasty..ignores the fact that it was neither practical or pragmatic.

Why do you think lords are concerned with having many sons? Because chances are some of them will die and you need--for wont for a better term--backups.

Now agree with that statement completely.

The baby in the womb was possibly a "backup." Assigning 3 KG to a possible backup over a present heir can't be called "practical."

[BearQueen87]

The baby in the womb was possibly a "backup." Assigning 3 KG to a possible backup over a present heir can't be called "practical."

"in the womb" when Rhaegar left, but (and I think we're going to disagree here) not in the womb by the time Ned arrives at the ToJ. Jon was born by then.

So far the line succession goes, yes Jon is a "backup" when Rhaegar leaves, but not when Ned arrives. By that point, Jon is the king. So the 3 KG are protecting--in order--an heir, the King, and they're protecting the Son of Ice and Fire, TPTWP (in Rhaegar's eyes). Rhaegar is absolutely convinced that one of his children is going to the Savior and I agree with whoever said a page back that Rhaegar might have realized that a son with Lyanna would really be the Son of Ice and Fire, not Aegon who is the son of Dragon and Sun (too much fire).

As to the practical nature of it all....

The Present Heir is Rhaegar--he is protected at the Trident by 3KG (just so happens that Robert managed to kill Rhaegar)

The second Heir is Aegon and that didn't go so well either but the 3KG at the TOJ have no way of knowing that 1) Tywin Lanniseter will sack the city (even Aerys thought he'd come to help) and that 2) The Mountain will kill the baby. Jamie was responsible for Aerys and Aegon, both of whom are behind fortified walls and the Red Keep, with various household guards as well as Jamie. And until the 3KG at the TOJ learn the truth, they have no reason not to trust their sworn brother.

After Aegon, it's Jon. So they are guarding the Heir once Rhaegar and Aegon die. Viserys is Jon's heir. And he's not being guarded by the KG because there are only 4 of them left--one just killed the king and the others are upholding their sworn oath.

ETA: I guess I'm confused. All the other heirs are protected. Why wouldn't THIS heir also be protected?

[The other prince]

Ok at least we covered that it is "a baby in the womb"

Now we can assert that if the baby in the womb turns out to be a boy it would be 4th in the line of succession.

How did you determine that the baby in the Womb is fourth in succession exactly? Or did you just make that up to fit your view?

[stateofdissipation]

"in the womb" when Rhaegar left, but (and I think we're going to disagree here) not in the womb by the time Ned arrives at the ToJ. Jon was born by then.

So far the line succession goes, yes Jon is a "backup" when Rhaegar leaves, but not when Ned arrives. By that point, Jon is the king. So the 3 KG are protecting--in order--an heir, the King, and they're protecting the Son of Ice and Fire, TPTWP (in Rhaegar's eyes). Rhaegar is absolutely convinced that one of his children is going to the Savior and I agree with whoever said a page back that Rhaegar might have realized that a son with Lyanna would really be the Son of Ice and Fire, not Aegon who is the son of Dragon and Sun (too much fire).

As to the practical nature of it all....

The Present Heir is Rhaegar--he is protected at the Trident by 3KG (just so happens that Robert managed to kill Rhaegar)

The second Heir is Aegon and that didn't go so well either but the 3KG at the TOJ have no way of knowing that 1) Tywin Lanniseter will sack the city (even Aerys thought he'd come to help) and that 2) The Mountain will kill the baby. Jamie was responsible for Aerys and Aegon, both of whom are behind fortified walls and the Red Keep, with various household guards as well as Jamie. And until the 3KG at the TOJ learn the truth, they have no reason not to trust their sworn brother.

After Aegon, it's Jon. So they are guarding the Heir once Rhaegar and Aegon die. Viserys is Jon's heir. And he's not being guarded by the KG because there are only 4 of them left--one just killed the king and the others are upholding their sworn oath.

The KG sat out the war because Rhaegar wanted them at the ToJ. What Rhaegar wanted had nothing to do with protecting the king. (The KG at the ToJ did not protect, Aery, Aegon, or Rhaegar.)

To put the KG at the ToJ to protect a king is to ignore that up to the birth of Jon, they had not been protecting a king or an heir but a pregnant lady--- you really can't make that into a practical concern for the future of the dynasty.

The KG at the ToJ may have ended up protecting a king. But the KG were at the ToJ because---Rhaegar is absolutely convinced that one of his children is going to the Savior and I agree with whoever said a page back that Rhaegar might have realized that a son with Lyanna would really be the Son of Ice and Fire, not Aegon who is the son of Dragon and Sun (too much fire).

Proximate cause is the primary cause of an event. It is not necessarily the closest cause in time or space nor the first event that sets in motion a sequence of events leading to the conclusion. Proximate cause produces particular, foreseeable consequences without the intervention of any independent or unforeseeable cause.

Rhaegar's wishes to have these 3 KG guard the ToJ produces the 3 KG defending the ToJ and does not require any independent or unforeseeable cause.

The KG guarding the King at the ToJ requires the independent and unforeseeable deaths of Rhaegar, Aerys, and Aegon.

The 3 KG at the ToJ were there because Rheagar wanted them there.

Rheagar leaving the KG to guard the ToJ is the proximate cause of their presence at the ToJ when Ned arrives.

The KG at the ToJ when Ned arrived may have been protecting who they saw as king. If Rhaegar married Lyanna and if Jon was born before Ned arrived. This may have been the cause of the fight at the ToJ. If the KG saw the king's uncle as a threat.

That there are lots and lots of ifs and speculation but none of it can hide the cause of the 3 KG's presence at the ToJ-- Rheagar wanted them there. To try to make the 3 KG at the ToJ present to Guard the king, puts the effect before the cause.

[stateofdissipation]

How did you determine that the baby in the Womb is fourth in succession exactly? Or did you just make that up to fit your view?

Aerys is 1

Rhaegar 2

Aegon 3

Rhaegar's next son would be 4.... "Four" after three and before five... I really did not make that one up

I also did not make up the line

1 King

2 King's oldest son

3 King's oldest son's oldest son

4 King's oldest son's second son.

I also did not make up

Aerys--- king

Rhaegar---king's oldest son

Aegon-- king's oldest son's oldest son

Rhaegar's second son-- king's oldest son's second oldest son

[BearQueen87]

To put the KG at the ToJ to protect a king is to ignore that up to the birth of Jon, they had not been protecting a king or an heir but a pregnant lady--- you really can't make that into a practical concern for the future of the dynasty.

The pregnant lady is carrying an heir. Therefore, the 3KG are protecting an heir. The other heirs (Rhaegar and Aegon) also have KG with them.

And I think you'll probably come back with--"but it could have been a girl"

Yes, but Rhaegar believes that Lyanna is carrying the SON of ice and fire (turns out he's right). So in Rhaegar's head, that's an heir inside Lyanna and the baby needs guarding just as much as Aegon.

Aerys is 1

Rhaegar 2

Aegon 3

Rhaegar's next son would be 4.... "Four" after three and before five... I really did not make that one up

I also did not make up the line

1 King

2 King's oldest son

3 King's oldest son's oldest son

4 King's oldest son's second son.

I also did not make up

Aerys--- king

Rhaegar---king's oldest son

Aegon-- king's oldest son's oldest son

Rhaegar's second son-- king's oldest son's second oldest son

Aerys is already on the throne. He's not in line for succession. i think that's where the other poster is coming from.

[stateofdissipation]

The pregnant lady is carrying an heir. Therefore, the 3KG are protecting an heir. The other heirs (Rhaegar and Aegon) also have KG with them.

And I think you'll probably come back with--"but it could have been a girl"

Yes, but Rhaegar believes that Lyanna is carrying the SON of ice and fire (turns out he's right). So in Rhaegar's head, that's an heir inside Lyanna and the baby needs guarding just as much as Aegon.

Aerys is already on the throne. He's not in line for succession. i think that's where the other poster is coming from.

Ok the discussion was about the KG protecting the king....

Rhaegar's second son would be 3rd in line to the throne.... He would be 4th in line for protecting the king...

The current king is already on the throne so is therefore no longer in line.... The protection of the king does not end when the king takes the throne so he is 1 and not 0.

[Ygrain]

Ah, I see we are again at the most difficult concept of grasping timelines and KG duties before and after the Sack.

[BearQueen87]

Ok the discussion was about the KG protecting the king....

Rhaegar's second son would be 3rd in line to the throne.... He would be 4th in line for protecting the king...

The current king is already on the throne so is therefore no longer in line.... The protection of the king does not end when the king takes the throne so he is 1 and not 0.

But how much does line of succession matter in this case. There are so many mitigating factors.

Aerys is First: Has one sworn brothers of the KG, is behind the walls of the Red Keep and KL, and has who knows how many household guards.

Rhaegar: went to the Trident with 3 KG

Aegon: Same as Aerys

Jon: has 3KG with him. He has more KG because of lack of defenses and cause he's the Son of Ice and Fire. He needs to live to be the Savior/TPTWP

All the people in the line of succession have KG with them.

[The other prince]

The pregnant lady is carrying an heir. Therefore, the 3KG are protecting an heir. The other heirs (Rhaegar and Aegon) also have KG with them.

And I think you'll probably come back with--"but it could have been a girl"

Yes, but Rhaegar believes that Lyanna is carrying the SON of ice and fire (turns out he's right). So in Rhaegar's head, that's an heir inside Lyanna and the baby needs guarding just as much as Aegon.

Aerys is already on the throne. He's not in line for succession. i think that's where the other poster is coming from.

Yes but here is my issue with this. It would seem that the Kingsguard were right to protect Jon. They had no way of knowing that Aery's or any of them were going to die. They would have known that Rhaegar was riding to battle and had a good chance to die but not the others. They were inside the Red keep. They could not know Jaime would kill Aerys, or that Tywin would side with Robert and have Gregor kill Rhaegars children. So to them all of the others are fairly safe. What real difference would three Kingsguard make to a force capable of forcing their way into the city. Meanwhile Jon had an old tower for protection. The 3 staying initially made perfect sense. After the sack of Kingslanding they would have no choice because:

I also did not make up

Aerys--- king - Dead

Rhaegar---king's oldest son

Aegon-- king's oldest son's oldest son

Rhaegar's second son-- king's oldest son's second oldest son

I honestly cannot see what point he thinks he is making. Not trying to be mean , I just don't think he is actually making the point he thinks he is.

[BearQueen87]

Yes but here is my issue with this. It would seem that the Kingsguard were right to protect Jon. They had no way of knowing that Aery's or any of them were going to die. They would have known that Rhaegar was riding to battle and had a good chance to die but not the others. They were inside the Red keep. They could not know Jaime would kill Aerys, or that Tywin would side with Robert and have Gregor kill Rhaegars children. So to them all of the others are fairly safe. What real difference would three Kingsguard make to a force capable of forcing their way into the city. Meanwhile Jon had an old tower for protection. The 3 staying initially made perfect sense. After the sack of Kingslanding they would have no choice because:

I also did not make up

Aerys--- king - Dead

Rhaegar---king's oldest son

Aegon-- king's oldest son's oldest son

Rhaegar's second son-- king's oldest son's second oldest son

I honestly cannot see what point he thinks he is making. Not trying to be mean , I just don't think he is actually making the point he thinks he is.

I agree 100%

If the 3KG at the ToJ left the tower with Rhaegar, left Lyanna and the baby who would be born shortly alone, then they are not protecting the king and his heirs.

[stateofdissipation]

But how much does line of succession matter in this case. There are so many mitigating factors.

Aerys is First: Has one sworn brothers of the KG, is behind the walls of the Red Keep and KL, and has who knows how many household guards.

Rhaegar: went to the Trident with 3 KG

Aegon: Same as Aerys

Jon: has 3KG with him. He has more KG because of lack of defenses and cause he's the Son of Ice and Fire. He needs to live to be the Savior/TPTWP

All the people in the line of succession have KG with them.

Except a baby in the womb-- not Jon was protected by 3 KG when Rhaegar left for the KL alone.

Line of succession really does not matter in the case. Neither do mitigating factors. The 3 KG were at the ToJ because Rhaegar wanted them there.

You can't turn the KG Rhaegar left at the ToJ into 3 KG at the ToJ to protect the king because you know that the baby in the womb turned out to be a boy and the others in line were killed. The sex of the baby and the deaths of Aerys, Rhaegar, and Aegon were independent unforeseeable events. You can't say that because that is how it turned out it is what was intended the whole time. It is the same thing as some people claiming the KG meant to die at the ToJ in a kind of suicide by Ned last stand. It does not make sense.

[UnmaskedLurker]

The 3 KG at the ToJ were there because Rheagar wanted them there.

Rheagar leaving the KG to guard the ToJ is the proximate cause of their presence at the ToJ when Ned arrives.

The KG at the ToJ when Ned arrived may have been protecting who they saw as king. If Rhaegar married Lyanna and if Jon was born before Ned arrived. This may have been the cause of the fight at the ToJ. If the KG saw the king's uncle as a threat.

That there are lots and lots of ifs and speculation but none of it can hide the cause of the 3 KG's presence at the ToJ-- Rheagar wanted them there. To try to make the 3 KG at the ToJ present to Guard the king, puts the effect before the cause.

As Ygrain suggests, we have been through this many times before, but I'll try again. Prior to the death of Rhaegar, Aerys and Aegon, the 3 KG at ToJ were there because Rhaegar wanted them there. All other potential heirs ahead of unborn Jon are protected by at least one KG (Jaime protecting Aerys and Aegon--and Viserys until he goes to Dragonstone). At some point Viserys goes to Dragonstone and its unprotected by a KG, but that is OK because he is way down the list at that point. Then after Rhaegar, Aerys and Aegon die, presumably the 3 KG probably don't get the news right away. They probably learn of Rhaegar first, as he died first, but Aerys and Aegon are still alive and still guarded by Jaime and safe in the RK.

Presumably by the time the 3 KG at ToJ learn of the deaths of Aerys and Aegon, Jon has been born. If Jon was not the legitimate son of Rhaegar, once the KG learned of the death of Aerys and Aegon, at least one if not all three would have left for Dragonstone to protect Viserys. But they don't. So the reason the 3 KG are at ToJ prior to learning of these death is because Rhaegar wants them there. That reason would have to yield to protecting the king if Viserys became the rightful heir, so the KG would have to got to Viserys. The only explanation for not going to Viserys is that Viserys is not king. The only way he is not king is if Jon is king, which means Rhaegar married Lyanna.

[UnmaskedLurker]

Except a baby in the womb-- not Jon was protected by 3 KG when Rhaegar left for the KL alone.

Line of succession really does not matter in the case. Neither do mitigating factors. The 3 KG were at the ToJ because Rhaegar wanted them there.

You can't turn the KG Rhaegar left at the ToJ into 3 KG at the ToJ to protect the king because you know that the baby in the womb turned out to be a boy and the others in line were killed. The sex of the baby and the deaths of Aerys, Rhaegar, and Aegon were independent unforeseeable events. You can't say that because that is how it turned out it is what was intended the whole time. It is the same thing as some people claiming the KG meant to die at the ToJ in a kind of suicide by Ned last stand. It does not make sense.

I just answered this point to you above, but I want to emphasize one point again. Whatever reason the KG were at ToJ prior to learning of the death of Aerys and Aegon are irrelevant. Once Aerys and Aegon die (and Rhaegar already dead), any duty to stay at ToJ would have to yield to the primary obligation to have at least one KG guarding the king at all times. The fact that even after finding out that Rhaegar, Aerys and Aegon are all dead, they do not take off for Dragonstone to guard Viserys can only be explained by them considering Jon to be the king. Prior to Jon being born, Aerys is alive (or KG don't know yet that he is dead), and he is guarded by Jaime, so the primary duty of KG is met. Once they find out about the sack of KL, the ONLY reason they would not send at least one if not all 3 KG to Dragonstone is if Viserys is not king--so they must view Jon as king.

[Alia of the knife]

Let us ignore the prophecy then. and focus on the pragmatic, dynastic concerns as much as metaphysical ones.

Pragmatic dynastic concerns:

Lineage;

1. Aerys the current king

2. Rhaegar--Aerys' heir

3. Aegon--Rhaegar's heir

4. Viserys-- Aerys' second son

Assigning 3 KG to guard a fetus outside the line of current succession does not further the pragmatic concern of the line of succession.

Military and political:

Alliance with the Martells

Alliance with Highgarden

Alliance with Lannisters

Alliance with the Starks

Alliance with the Baratheons

Alliance with the Tullys

Alliance with the Arryns

Rhaegar's actions acted to further no military or political pragmatic concerns. A non-political match (secret marriage) did nothing to secure the future of the dynasty.

Kevan Lanniser's memory of Rheagar specifically wanting SONS may suggest pragmatic, dynastic concern, Rhaegar's actions however kill that suggestion.

Having only one male heir born to a woman rendered infertile, and whose primary duty was to secure the succession, would have been more of an immediate, political concern to the dynasty and Westeros than some cerebral prophesy in a time when people no longer believed in even snarks~ not even Starks believed Nans tales.

I'm not saying prophesy was off the table, but would have been a hard sale absent the immediate concerns.

[The other prince]

Except a baby in the womb-- not Jon was protected by 3 KG when Rhaegar left for the KL alone.

Line of succession really does not matter in the case. Neither do mitigating factors. The 3 KG were at the ToJ because Rhaegar wanted them there.

You can't turn the KG Rhaegar left at the ToJ into 3 KG at the ToJ to protect the king because you know that the baby in the womb turned out to be a boy and the others in line were killed. The sex of the baby and the deaths of Aerys, Rhaegar, and Aegon were independent unforeseeable events. You can't say that because that is how it turned out it is what was intended the whole time. It is the same thing as some people claiming the KG meant to die at the ToJ in a kind of suicide by Ned last stand. It does not make sense.

You can however point out that the rest of the individuals in the line of succession were thought to be protected while Jon would have had no protection. It wouldn't matter to start with if he was in line for the throne or not. The baby boy or girl was going to be a member of the royal family and since all of the rest of the royal family were thought to be protected the 3 Kg at the TOJ did exactly what made sense. After the sack they had no choice at all. The baby does not have to be a boy for their initial actions to make sense. So your argument doesn't prove anything at all.