R+L = J v 86

[BearQueen87]

Except a baby in the womb-- not Jon was protected by 3 KG when Rhaegar left for the KL alone.

Line of succession really does not matter in the case. Neither do mitigating factors. The 3 KG were at the ToJ because Rhaegar wanted them there.

You can't turn the KG Rhaegar left at the ToJ into 3 KG at the ToJ to protect the king because you know that the baby in the womb turned out to be a boy and the others in line were killed. The sex of the baby and the deaths of Aerys, Rhaegar, and Aegon were independent unforeseeable events. You can't say that because that is how it turned out it is what was intended the whole time. It is the same thing as some people claiming the KG meant to die at the ToJ in a kind of suicide by Ned last stand. It does not make sense.

I can't decide. Are you trying to argue that the fetus isn't important enough to protect because it's not born yet? Is that your argument?

[UnmaskedLurker]

After the sack they had no choice at all. The baby does not have to be a boy for their initial actions to make sense.

I am not sure I agree on that point. If Jon had been a girl, under Targ succession rules, I think Viserys would be king because I think after DoD 1.0, females can only rule if all known potential male heirs have been exhausted (a little more complicated than that--but I think that is the basic rule). So the fact that female-Jon would be in the line of succession would not address the need for at least one KG to be with the king. So if Jon had been born a girl, at least one if not all 3 KG would have had to go to Dragonstone to be with Viserys once they learned of the death of Aerys and Aegon. Only because Jon was born a boy (and "legitimate" son of Rhaegar) and thus the rightful king in the eyes of the KG did they not leave for Dragonstone after learning of the other deaths.

[The other prince]

I can't decide. Are you trying to argue that the fetus isn't important enough to protect because it's not born yet? Is that your argument?

I think he is operating under the assumption that they would not have protected a member of the Royal family unless they knew it was going to be Heir and if he makes that point that it in some way proves something. I'm not sure what, but I think he believes it proves something. Or you are right and he is saying that until the baby is born it is not important (not sure what he is basing either assumption on though).

[stateofdissipation]

Yes but here is my issue with this. It would seem that the Kingsguard were right to protect Jon. They had no way of knowing that Aery's or any of them were going to die. They would have known that Rhaegar was riding to battle and had a good chance to die but not the others. They were inside the Red keep. They could not know Jaime would kill Aerys, or that Tywin would side with Robert and have Gregor kill Rhaegars children. So to them all of the others are fairly safe. What real difference would three Kingsguard make to a force capable of forcing their way into the city. Meanwhile Jon had an old tower for protection. The 3 staying initially made perfect sense. After the sack of Kingslanding they would have no choice because:

I also did not make up

Aerys--- king - Dead

Rhaegar---king's oldest son

Aegon-- king's oldest son's oldest son

Rhaegar's second son-- king's oldest son's second oldest son

I honestly cannot see what point he thinks he is making. Not trying to be mean , I just don't think he is actually making the point he thinks he is.

The KG could not have known they were at the ToJ to protect the heir. The KG could not have known that the baby in the womb would be Jon,

The KG could not have been at the ToJ to protect the king because they could not have known there would be a king at the ToJ.

---- the point is the KG could not have been at the ToJ for a reason they could not have known-----

Rhaegar wanted the 3 KG to remain at the ToJ. That is why these 3 KG were at the ToJ.

Due to unforeseeable events the KG may have ended up guarding the king at the ToJ... but the KG were at the ToJ because Rhaegar wanted them to be.

--- the point is we have the reason for the KG being at the ToJ and it is not "to protect the heir"----

The KG did know that Aerys, Rhaegar, and Aegon had been killed before Ned arrived at the ToJ. (otherwise you can't claim they were guarding the king when Ned got there)

Meanwhile Jon had an old tower for protection. The 3 staying initially made perfect sense.

please reconcile that with

What real difference would three Kingsguard make to a force capable of forcing their way into the city.

How could the KG have made a difference at an old tower without an army when they would have made no difference in a city that was "fairly safe" with an army?

---The point is it does not make any sense to have the KG make all the difference at the ToJ while claiming they would have made no difference in KL---

[Khal Pod]

I've never seen this on here, I'm sure it's been mentioned but oh well.

According to a few baby names websites, Wylla or Willa means continuation or unbroken succession.

Jon could certainly be the continuation of the Targ line in unbroken succession.

Of course you have to take this for what it is, information from a baby names website, and I have no idea where they get their facts, either way it's interesting and I wonder if it was intentional on GRRM's part.

[Aeron_Damphair]

The KG could not have known they were at the ToJ to protect the heir. The KG could not have known that the baby in the womb would be Jon,

The KG could not have been at the ToJ to protect the king because they could not have known there would be a king at the ToJ.

---- the point is the KG could not have been at the ToJ for a reason they could not have known-----

At first they were there to protect an heir, when they were 2, and later 3, of a total of 7.

By the time Ned got there, they were there to protect the foremost heir, and were 3 of a possible 3. Jon was protected by 3 KG, Viserys 0, and none of them were even on their way to Viserys.

Did the circumstances change? Yes. Were their reasons relevant, sensible, and commensurate with the expectations of the KG given those circumstances in both cases? Yes. So why is the bolded problematic? It isn't.

I can't wait to explain this like 700 or 800 more times by the way.

The KG did know that Aerys, Rhaegar, and Aegon had been killed before Ned arrived at the ToJ. (otherwise you can't claim they were guarding the king when Ned got there)

Meanwhile Jon had an old tower for protection. The 3 staying initially made perfect sense.

please reconcile that with

What real difference would three Kingsguard make to a force capable of forcing their way into the city.

How could the KG have made a difference at an old tower without an army when they would have made no difference in a city that was "fairly safe" with an army?

---The point is it does not make any sense to have the KG make all the difference at the ToJ while claiming they would have made no difference in KL---

The tower, was vulnerable, but a secret. It needed KG protection because anyone who discovered it would have found it relatively defenseless otherwise.

KL was fortified and protected by walls, the city watch, and a KG of its own. It wasn't taken by a legitimate military action. It was taken through treachery. If Aerys hadn't let Tywin march through his gates, the city wouldn't have been taken ala Troy.

Once again, the above being the case, how is the bolded problematic? Again, it isn't.

[BearQueen87]

I feel like this is going in circles (and is being hashed out in another thread at the same time...)

I've never seen this on here, I'm sure it's been mentioned but oh well.

According to a few baby names websites, Wylla or Willa means continuation or unbroken succession.

Jon could certainly be the continuation of the Targ line in unbroken succession.

Of course you have to take this for what it is, information from a baby names website, and I have no idea where they get their facts, either way it's interesting and I wonder if it was intentional on GRRM's part.

Nice find!

[The other prince]

I am not sure I agree on that point. If Jon had been a girl, under Targ succession rules, I think Viserys would be king because I think after DoD 1.0, females can only rule if all known potential male heirs have been exhausted (a little more complicated than that--but I think that is the basic rule). So the fact that female-Jon would be in the line of succession would not address the need for at least one KG to be with the king. So if Jon had been born a girl, at least one if not all 3 KG would have had to go to Dragonstone to be with Viserys once they learned of the death of Aerys and Aegon. Only because Jon was born a boy (and "legitimate" son of Rhaegar) and thus the rightful king in the eyes of the KG did they not leave for Dragonstone after learning of the other deaths.

See it doesn't matter, the initial decision to stay is also based on the rest of the Targaryens already being protected. We have no way of knowing when they heard that Viserys was fled to Dragonstone. Even if they found out fairly quickly are any of them going to leave a member of the Royal family that they know the location of, for one that may have tried to get to Dragonstone, and may have made it? If so how do they plan to get there? Thats assuming that they hadn't just found out very recently.

[BearQueen87]

The KG could not have known they were at the ToJ to protect the heir. The KG could not have known that the baby in the womb would be Jon,

The KG could not have been at the ToJ to protect the king because they could not have known there would be a king at the ToJ.

---- the point is the KG could not have been at the ToJ for a reason they could not have known-----

So because the 3KG didn't know that the fetus would be a boy, they can't say they were protecting the heir?

Ok. 1) there is a 50/50 chance that it's a boy. Better safe than sorry? Does protection only being when birthed? And for that matter, does protection stop when it's a girl. Cause pretty sure Arys Oakheart went to Dorne with Myrcella.

2) by the time Ned got there and we get the "our knees do not bend.." "we swore a vow..." bit, the baby is born and IS the heir.

[stateofdissipation]

As Ygrain suggests, we have been through this many times before, but I'll try again. Prior to the death of Rhaegar, Aerys and Aegon, the 3 KG at ToJ were there because Rhaegar wanted them there.

All other potential heirs ahead of unborn Jon are protected by at least one KG (Jaime protecting Aerys and Aegon--and Viserys until he goes to Dragonstone). At some point Viserys goes to Dragonstone and its unprotected by a KG, but that is OK because he is way down the list at that point.

Then after Rhaegar, Aerys and Aegon die, presumably the 3 KG probably don't get the news right away. They probably learn of Rhaegar first, as he died first, but Aerys and Aegon are still alive and still guarded by Jaime and safe in the RK.

Presumably by the time the 3 KG at ToJ learn of the deaths of Aerys and Aegon, Jon has been born. If Jon was not the legitimate son of Rhaegar, once the KG learned of the death of Aerys and Aegon, at least one if not all three would have left for Dragonstone to protect Viserys.

But they don't. So the reason the 3 KG are at ToJ prior to learning of these death is because Rhaegar wants them there. That reason would have to yield to protecting the king if Viserys became the rightful heir, so the KG would have to got to Viserys. The only explanation for not going to Viserys is that Viserys is not king. The only way he is not king is if Jon is king, which means Rhaegar married Lyanna.

Prior to the death of Rhaegar, Aerys and Aegon, the 3 KG at ToJ were there because Rhaegar wanted them there.

Exactly....

At some point Viserys goes to Dragonstone and its unprotected by a KG, but that is OK because he is way down the list at that point.

Viserys is only down the list after the birth of Jon. If the unborn baby is a girl, Visery's is king. Unless of course we wish to claim that Jon was born before the sack of KL, the KG were basically risking the life of a male heir over the possibility of a male heir.

Then after Rhaegar, Aerys and Aegon die, presumably the 3 KG probably don't get the news right away. They probably learn of Rhaegar first, as he died first, but Aerys and Aegon are still alive and still guarded by Jaime and safe in the RK.

We are skipping the news of Aerys sending Viserys to Dragonstone. with only Ser Willem. That happened after the trident and before the sack of KL. Unless Jon is born at that point, the KG are not guarding a male heir but are guarding the chance of one.

Presumably by the time the 3 KG at ToJ learn of the deaths of Aerys and Aegon, Jon has been born.

Not presumably, neccessarily. If Jon is not born before the 3KG learn of the deaths of Aerys and Aegon, Jon's legitimacy does not matter. Because Viserys would be a male heir, and a fetus would only be a possible male heir.

If Jon was not the legitimate son of Rhaegar, once the KG learned of the death of Aerys and Aegon, at least one if not all three would have left for Dragonstone to protect Viserys.

If Jon was not born or not the legitimate son of Rhaegar, Viserys would have required KG protection by at least one of the 3.

So we ignore Ned finding Lyanna in a bed of blood or we extend bed of blood from childbirth to childbirth and up to 6 weeks after. We must have Jon born before Ned arrives because if he is not, the KG are still at the ToJ because Rhaegar wanted them there. If Jon was born where the book said he was and not where we want him to be, the KG were following Rhaegar's orders. If they were just following Rhaegar's orders Jon does not have to be legitimate and Lyanna does not have to have married Rhaegar.

It is fine to do that, however we should at least admit that we are....

But they don't. So the reason the 3 KG are at ToJ prior to learning of these death is because Rhaegar wants them there.

And before the birth of Lyanna's baby.

That reason would have to yield to protecting the king if Viserys became the rightful heir, so the KG would have to got to Viserys.

Or the baby was not born before the KG learned that Viserys was alone.

The only explanation for not going to Viserys is that Viserys is not king.

And that requires a birth before the text says it happened. It also requires the inclusion of the duty of the KG be with their king as soon as they learn who the king is. This requires us to ignore the duty until after the deaths of 2 kings.

If Rheagar's wanting the KG present at the ToJ was a valid reason for their presence there after his death, why does it become invalid after the death of Aerys and Aegon? You asserted they knew of Rhaegar's death before they learned of Aerys and Aegon's deaths. Now we need to push Jon's birth back to before the KG learn of Rhaegar's death or lose the KG must go to guard the king duty. If we continue pushing Jon's birth back, soon jon will be walking out to meet Ned at the ToJ. We already have a pretty big problem with trying to pass Jon off as younger than Robb.

The only way he is not king is if Jon is king, which means Rhaegar married Lyanna

ok if we push Jon's birth up a few months, and selectively apply a duty to defend the king.... we have proven that Rhaegar married Lyanna....

(Actually we have proven only that we really want to prove that R married L.)

[Ser Leftwich]

Then after Rhaegar, Aerys and Aegon die, presumably the 3 KG probably don't get the news right away. They probably learn of Rhaegar first, as he died first, but Aerys and Aegon are still alive and still guarded by Jaime and safe in the RK.

We are skipping the news of Aerys sending Viserys to Dragonstone. with only Ser Willem. That happened after the trident and before the sack of KL. Unless Jon is born at that point, the KG are not guarding a male heir but are guarding the chance of one.

It is just as possible that the KG at the ToJ had not heard the news that some of the Targ family went to Dragonstone before they learned of the deaths during the Sack.

Oh, wait the emails Varys sent them must have failed.

[The Agency of Sansa Stark]

I mentioned this in another thread-- what are the odds that Rhaegar ordered Lyanna to be killed rather than be rescued? Not ruling out that Jon is her son, of that I am most certain he is. But was Rhaegar convinced to not let her escape?

There were many that believed Rhaegar took Lyanna against her will, maybe he was angry with her when he left?

[BearQueen87]

I mentioned this in another thread-- what are the odds that Rhaegar ordered Lyanna to be killed rather than be rescued? Not ruling out that Jon is her son, of that I am most certain he is. But was Rhaegar convinced to not let her escape?

There were many that believed Rhaegar took Lyanna against her will, maybe he was angry with her when he left?

I doubt it. His final word and thought was about Lyanna, not TPTWP or the prophecy. Just Lyanna.

[Ser Leftwich]

I mentioned this in another thread-- what are the odds that Rhaegar ordered Lyanna to be killed rather than be rescued? Not ruling out that Jon is her son, of that I am most certain he is. But was Rhaegar convinced to not let her escape?

There were many that believed Rhaegar took Lyanna against her will, maybe he was angry with her when he left?

Is the idea that Rhaegar raped Lyanna, forced her to bear a child to term, and then had her murdered, rather than let her be rescued? And had the KG do all of this?

[stateofdissipation]

At first they were there to protect an heir, when they were 2, and later 3, of a total of 7.

By the time Ned got there, they were there to protect the foremost heir, and were 3 of a possible 3. Jon was protected by 3 KG, Viserys 0, and none of them were even on their way to Viserys.

Did the circumstances change? Yes. Were their reasons relevant, sensible, and commensurate with the expectations of the KG given those circumstances in both cases? Yes. So why is the bolded problematic? It isn't.

I can't wait to explain this like 700 or 800 more times by the way.

The tower, was vulnerable, but a secret. It needed KG protection because anyone who discovered it would have found it relatively defenseless otherwise.

KL was fortified and protected by walls, the city watch, and a KG of its own. It wasn't taken by a legitimate military action. It was taken through treachery. If Aerys hadn't let Tywin march through his gates, the city wouldn't have been taken ala Troy.

Once again, the above being the case, how is the bolded problematic? Again, it isn't.

At first they were there to protect an heir, when they were 2, and later 3, of a total of 7.

are you asserting that Rhaegar was present for the birth of Jon?

Because if you are not you can't claim there were 3 KG protecting an heir. You could claim they were there to protect Rhaegar's wife.

You can make exactly the same claim here as you do about Jon later. Lyanna is a member of the royal family and the KG have a duty to protect her.

That would be easier than waiting till after the ToJ to throw it in. By the time you get to the ToJ you have added no more evidence than you have now.

Did the circumstances change? Yes. Were their reasons relevant, sensible, and commensurate with the expectations of the KG given those circumstances in both cases? Yes.

So why is the bolded----

The KG could not have known they were at the ToJ to protect the heir. The KG could not have known that the baby in the womb would be Jon,

The KG could not have been at the ToJ to protect the king because they could not have known there would be a king at the ToJ

the point is the KG could not have been at the ToJ for a reason they could not have known-----

problematic? It isn't.

I can't wait to explain this like 700 or 800 more times by the way.

One answer would be nice... you can keep the other 699 or 800,explanations.. If you did not see the problem then these should be easy.

.

How did the KG know they were protecting an heir before the baby was born a male?

How did the KG know they were protecting the king before the king and the first heir died?

Meanwhile Jon had an old tower for protection. The 3 staying initially made perfect sense.

please reconcile that with

What real difference would three Kingsguard make to a force capable of forcing their way into the city.

The tower, was vulnerable, but a secret. It needed KG protection because anyone who discovered it would have found it relatively defenseless otherwise.

well you still have only 3 KG that you have already asserted would make no difference in a walled city. Ok the KG need to be in secret and in a relatively defenseless tower to become effective.

KL was fortified and protected by walls, the city watch, and a KG of its own. It wasn't taken by a legitimate military action. It was taken through treachery. If Aerys hadn't let Tywin march through his gates, the city wouldn't have been taken ala Troy.

If the KG would have been tricked in KL, what chance did they have at the tower. Oh sorry forgot they need to be secret and relatively defenseless before their KG powers activate..

Completely don't see why I saw that as problematic..... other than not knowing that secrecy and relatively defenseless was the key.

[The Agency of Sansa Stark]

Is the idea that Rhaegar raped Lyanna, forced her to bear a child to term, and then had her murdered, rather than let her be rescued? And had the KG do all of this?

Yes

[BearQueen87]

Is the idea that Rhaegar raped Lyanna, forced her to bear a child to term, and then had her murdered, rather than let her be rescued? And had the KG do all of this?

Yes

that seems to fly in the face of all the evidence people find that the story Robert Baratheon transmits to the audience isn't the true story.

[Aeron_Damphair]

State- very briefly- If she was pregnant, they were protecting a "potential" heir, and by the time Ned got there, they were protecting "the" heir. Easy to understand, easy to justify.

I never asserted that these 3 KG wouldn't have made a difference at KL, only that they were not especially needed there, all that was needed there was for Aerys NOT to trust Tywin. You put words into my mouth when you say I asserted as much, not that it makes ANY difference anyway. How much difference they may or may not have made at KL is immaterial, irrelevant, inconsequential.

Your last question about them being tricked at KL vs the tower makes no sense so I won't bother answering it.

I'm peacing out of this thread.

[stateofdissipation]

It is just as possible that the KG at the ToJ had not heard the news that some of the Targ family went to Dragonstone before they learned of the deaths during the Sack.

Oh, wait the emails Varys sent them must have failed.

They probably learn of Rhaegar first, as he died first,

but Aerys and Aegon are still alive and still guarded by Jaime and safe in the RK. Viserys sent to Dragonstone

Then after Rhaegar, Aerys and Aegon die, presumably the 3 KG probably don't get the news right away.

We are skipping the news of Aerys sending Viserys to Dragonstone. with only Ser Willem.That happened after the trident and before the sack of KL. Unless Jon is born at that point, the KG are not guarding a male heir but are guarding the chance of one.

It was not my speculation, I was simply inserting that if the KG had news of Aerys and Aegon from KL after Rhaegar's death... that news should have included what happened to Viserys. Aerys and Aegon are alive and well in KL is not new, Viserys fled is new. If the KG at the ToJ got news... the least it could be is new.

[Ser Leftwich]

Is the idea that Rhaegar raped Lyanna, forced her to bear a child to term, and then had her murdered, rather than let her be rescued? And had the KG do all of this?

Yes

It would be very, very difficult to force a prisoner to bring a child to term, if they did not want to. Add into that what we know of Lyanna's personality, even less likely that she would have been forced to bring a child to term while a prisoner.

Also, the 'bed of blood' metaphor is covered at the beginning of this thread.