Seriously, where's the logic in Balon's plan?

[AdmiraloftheDothrakiSea]

But didn't Balon just want to ravage the western coast of the North, period? It's Theon who decides alone to attack Winterfell, and expand the conflict to the whole North.

No i remember he intended to conquer all the strongholds in the North and thought he could do that easily but that Winterfell may defy him for a while.

[Capt Captain]

People are forgetting that the Ironborn had burnt the Lannister fleet. There would have been little resistance from the Westerlands. As for Steffan Lannister raising 10,000 troops; Balon could have sent a distraction force along the coast to draw them away from Lannisport before taking the city.

[hodorisfaclessman]

People are forgetting that the Ironborn had burnt the Lannister fleet. There would have been little resistance from the Westerlands. As for Steffan Lannister raising 10,000 troops; Balon could have sent a distraction force along the coast to draw them away from Lannisport before taking the city.

Burnt them back in the time of the greyjoy rebellion accoriding to grmm on the subject they are fully rebuilt not ot mention the other costal lords said to have a handful of ships to harass the invasion force with

Then theres the little matter of casterly rock being right beside lannisport

All in all the westerlands would reqire nothing less than a risky massive d-day like assault as an inital move ...by contrast the north was wide open after 2 small scale attacks.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

D-Day like assaults are a thing of the 20th century. With the given technology, they don't happen. Landing a decent army is easy as pie.

[hodorisfaclessman]

D-Day like assaults are a thing of the 20th century. With the given technology, they don't happen. Landing a decent army is easy as pie.

yeah obviously im not talking tech wise i meant as in massive in scale

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Victarion Greyjoy brought 10,000-15,000 men to Moat Cailin. Neglecting Asha and Theon for a moment, that force alone would have been enough to beat Stafford's not yet ready army, start sieging Lannisport and the Rock as well as taking several castles and goldmines on the fly. Robb managed that with half the numbers.

[hodorisfaclessman]

Victarion Greyjoy brought 10,000-15,000 men to Moat Cailin. Neglecting Asha and Theon for a moment, that force alone would have been enough to beat Stafford's not yet ready army, start sieging Lannisport and the Rock as well as taking several castles and goldmines on the fly. Robb managed that with half the numbers.

But that force alone cannot attack staffon til its secured the seas ie the lannisport fleet and the other costal lords with drommonds so they either do that first or the rest of the ironborn do it instead...either way we are now talking a much larger and thus risker operation (remember moat cailin didn need such a hugh elite force to take it esp with suprise on their side but the elite were sent as securing it was utterly essential to balons plans )

Lannisport is a huge city and would require a large body of men to secure , casterly rock will prib have a smaller than usual garrison but still enough men to sally out and cause severe problems if not either taken or surrounded.

On top of that the westerlands is much smaller and not as forrested thus taking away the ironborns best weapon ie suprise

[Victarion Chainbreaker]

Balon was depending on an alliance with the Lannisters. He correctly foresaw who would win the WOT5K, but he assumed Tywin would reward him for contributing to the Stark's downfall. Perhaps he was going for a Theon-Myrcella match, or maybe just territorial acquisition, but he misjudged how grateful Tywin would be for his help.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

But that force alone cannot attack staffon til its secured the seas ie the lannisport fleet and the other costal lords with drommonds so they either do that first or the rest of the ironborn do it instead...either way we are now talking a much larger and thus risker operation (remember moat cailin didn need such a hugh elite force to take it esp with suprise on their side but the elite were sent as securing it was utterly essential to balons plans )

That's true, but only to a certain extent. The Lannister Fleet is not comparable to any of the great fleets. They couldn't even go up against half the Iron Fleet. And that's if the Ironborn don't sink a whole bunch before they can assemble.

Lannisport is a huge city and would require a large body of men to secure , casterly rock will prib have a smaller than usual garrison but still enough men to sally out and cause severe problems if not either taken or surrounded.

Not that many. 1,000-2,000 should be enough in either case. Not to assault them, but to pin the garrisons and starve them. Leaving quite a lot of men to take other, smaller castles. Like Ashemark or the Crag. After the first ten castles or the like, the Westermen would give Tywin the finger. And that's neglecting all the gold mines and other indefensible sources of income.

On top of that the westerlands is much smaller and not as forrested thus taking away the ironborns best weapon ie suprise

But very, very hilly, as well as lacking men to defend itself. Furthermore, way more viable targets close to the sea.

[Jasta11]

Balon gained nothing from attacking the only other region wanting independence and crowning himself at the same time. He could have pursued a ''let's fuck up the Starks'' strategy and get rewarded by the IT if he played his cards right. He could have pushed a ''independence at all costs'' agenda and allied with anyone willing to destabilize the IT, if only to backstab them later when no unified force exists to oppose the Ironborn. Instead he tried to do both because ''we do not sow lulz'' and gained nothing but turnips.

Logic is for women and greenlanders in the Iron Islands, it seems.

[hodorisfaclessman]

-Most of their fleet is in lannisport that would have to be dealt with before any ground assult could even begin as would the other costal lords tiny fleets

You are correct they havent the fleet capable of meeting the ironborn in open battle and winning but even a small fleet can disrupt a much larger ones attempts to land forces or at least delay it while the land forces assemble... ..or worse they sail away and attack the iironborn fleet while the ironborn are miles inland

either way they must be dealt with first making this a much grander and risker scheme than slipping it and bottling robb down south

-lannisport has like population of 200k or so u arent holding it without a much larger garrison and casterly rock will no doubt have a significant force prob (given tywin is aless trusting fellow than robbs 600 or so at winterfell) plus theres the little matter of stefans 10k or so force very nearby a single messanger escaping and bringing him word and that 10k will arrive in time to potentialy throw them back into the sea

-The smaller area allows the remaining forces to concentrate and get to places much quicker not like the north

[joluoto2]

The only correct move for the Ironborn would have been to stay on their rocky islands. They haven't been conquerors for centuries. Even now Euron have to deal with his men rather just wanting to pillage and return home with the loot, than actually conquer.

And yes, I agree with everyone who says Balon guessed Tywin would win, so he didn't want to go against him. And he didn't go for the Reach because the Redwyne fleet was still at the Arbor. He went North because it was the option he had left and he thought he could make a deal with Tywin (yes, Balon was a complete moron).

[jobmartell]

What Balon should of done was to align himself WITH Robb/North, help wipe out the Lannisters & co, then stab them in the back. Or better yet, sit back, watch them kill themselves then declare himself independent and wipe out Robb & co*. Of course none of this would of helped with moving the story in the direction needed. So, then, he plan was perfect!

* or Tywin & co. Whichever

[AdmiraloftheDothrakiSea]

Why do people think Stafford Lannister's army was a major threat? It consisted of all the scrapings left in the Westerlands. Pretty much 10000 green boys who were still barely trained. Not to mention how Robb completely annihilated that host. If Balon had allied with Robb, Robb could've still surprised Stafford's host whilst Balon took care of the Lannisport fleet and any other coastal ships. None of these are major threats to the Ironborn anyway. Then there's two options and both would work fine:

1) Besiege Lannisport and Casterly Rock with small forces by land and water. The Ironborn on the water and Robb's forces on land. Then take the rest of the forces to capture castles and plunder the Westerlands clean. Unless someone there can raise a host quickly, the remnants of Jaime's host under Ser Forley Prester at the Golden Tooth will have to be go and deal with them. Robb would have the advantage of having the Blackfish where they can send them on wild goose chases and then take care of them on ground where his cavalry has advantage of the Lannister foot. Or those forces will have to wait for Tywin to march west. If Tywin marches west much earlier then there's very little chance of a Tyrell alliance

2) Storm Lannisport and Casterly Rock. I do think this is possible even in a well fortified city such as Lannisport simply because they'd be attacking from both sides. If they beat the fleet and Stafford's host prior, then the only ones they have to worry about are Lannisport's city watch and the garrison at Casterly Rock

[hodorisfaclessman]

Why do people think Stafford Lannister's army was a major threat? It consisted of all the scrapings left in the Westerlands. Pretty much 10000 green boys who were still barely trained. Not to mention how Robb completely annihilated that host. If Balon had allied with Robb, Robb could've still surprised Stafford's host whilst Balon took care of the Lannisport fleet and any other coastal ships. None of these are major threats to the Ironborn anyway. Then there's two options and both would work fine:

1) Besiege Lannisport and Casterly Rock with small forces by land and water. The Ironborn on the water and Robb's forces on land. Then take the rest of the forces to capture castles and plunder the Westerlands clean. Unless someone there can raise a host quickly, the remnants of Jaime's host under Ser Forley Prester at the Golden Tooth will have to be go and deal with them. Robb would have the advantage of having the Blackfish where they can send them on wild goose chases and then take care of them on ground where his cavalry has advantage of the Lannister foot. Or those forces will have to wait for Tywin to march west. If Tywin marches west much earlier then there's very little chance of a Tyrell alliance

2) Storm Lannisport and Casterly Rock. I do think this is possible even in a well fortified city such as Lannisport simply because they'd be attacking from both sides. If they beat the fleet and Stafford's host prior, then the only ones they have to worry about are Lannisport's city watch and the garrison at Casterly Rock

10k green forces yes but in defence 10k even green can wreck havoc on an amphibious landing esp from a good defensive position

also balon or anyone had no way of knowing robb was about to use warg wolf scout powers to bypass the goldn tooth

[Toos]

I don't think that Stafford's army would be threat to Ironborn because Stafford already marched to Golden Tooth when Theon arrived on Pyke, so Lannisport was basicly defenceless. And Lannister's fleet IIRC from SSM is about 20-30 ships and other lords have probably similar fleet as Mallisters(7 ships - I think 5 were longships).

[Bright Blue Eyes]

10k green forces yes but in defence 10k even green can wreck havoc on an amphibious landing esp from a good defensive position

"Amphibious landing" is something that did not happen up until the 20th century. There simply is no infrastructure to defend the coast. No telegraphs/telephone/radio, no railways or trucks and a lot less men to watch a lot of coast.

[hodorisfaclessman]

"Amphibious landing" is something that did not happen up until the 20th century. There simply is no infrastructure to defend the coast. No telegraphs/telephone/radio, no railways or trucks and a lot less men to watch a lot of coast.

Its actualy as old as time itself its simply projecting ground forces from ships

The north has the same disadvantages in orgainising costal defence except its spread out over a much wider range making it multiple times harder to defend,then of course theres the westerland fleet to worry about and 10k men already nicely formed and orgainised

Im not saying its impossoble it would simply require a huge assault to knock out all the potential risks in the opening move whereas the north required 2 sneak attacks and it was wide open

[Pod The Rod]

10k green forces yes but in defence 10k even green can wreck havoc on an amphibious landing esp from a good defensive position

also balon or anyone had no way of knowing robb was about to use warg wolf scout powers to bypass the goldn tooth

Amphibious landing?

As Bright Blue Eyes said, Omaha Beach, Pelieliu, Iwo Jima, Tarawa et al. were only possible in the 20th century, where the defender knew the enemy was coming, could predict where they would land, and had the ability to engage them both before they landed and once they had hit the beach.

The Lannisters in case of an IB invasion wouldn't have any of that. They wouldn't know the kraken had emerged from the deep until it had wrapped its arms around Lannisport, because Balon would've sealed the islands like he did prior to invading the North. The Lannister fleet is no match for the Iron Fleet, so they couldn't stop the IB from landing anywhere they damn well pleased, even right inside Lannisport harbor (again). And if by some miracle Ser Stafford was in position to engage them, his 10k would be outnumbered by the IB's 15k, and not nearly as well trained. And again, these are the Ironborn we're talking about. They fight BEST near the water. They'd LOVE it if the Lannisters attempted to engage them as they came off the boats.

[Mal Malenkirk]

Amphibious landing" is something that did not happen up until the 20th century. There simply is no infrastructure to defend the coast. No telegraphs/telephone/radio, no railways or trucks and a lot less men to watch a lot of coast.

If it was that hard to defend a landing in the medieval era, England would have fallen several time.

Only one invasion of England (from the continent) was successful in the past thousand years; William Conqueror's, back when England was divided.

A lot more were attempted but it's just not that easy. The logistics alone of attempting to land 10K men from hundreds of boat is baffling. Re-organising your army afterward is just as hard (lacks of modern communications cuts both way) and Ironborn would be especially vulnerable to harassment from skirmisher cavalry while trying to do so since they have no cavalry of their own.

A hard feat.

Add that they seem to suck at siege and the westerlands are much more fortified than the North, and you got a very hard mission ahead.