Seriously, where's the logic in Balon's plan?

[Fire Eater]

Balon was depending on an alliance with the Lannisters. He correctly foresaw who would win the WOT5K, but he assumed Tywin would reward him for contributing to the Stark's downfall. Perhaps he was going for a Theon-Myrcella match, or maybe just territorial acquisition, but he misjudged how grateful Tywin would be for his help.

If he actually was depending on an alliance with the Lannisters he would have sent a raven to Tywin before doing so. Tywin would have given a lot for Robb to have to have something else to occupy his attention. He wasn't going for a Theon-Myrcella match, he had not even the slightest thought about Theon. He wasn't looking for an alliance but independence.

Balon attacked the North because he wanted revenge for his disastrous defeat. Never mind the whole thing was his fault. Robert's lands, the Stormlands are on the opposite side of Westeros, as are Arryn's, and Tywin wasn't able to do much when Balon humiliatingly burned his fleet at anchor in Lannisport, so he doesn't have a chip in his shoulder regarding the Lannisters. Ned had his son as hostage, and the North had a western coast, so Balon selected the North as his target to avenge his pride.

[hodorisfaclessman]

I don't think that Stafford's army would be threat to Ironborn because Stafford already marched to Golden Tooth when Theon arrived on Pyke, so Lannisport was basicly defenceless. And Lannister's fleet IIRC from SSM is about 20-30 ships and other lords have probably similar fleet as Mallisters(7 ships - I think 5 were longships).

They are 10k men and in oxcross described as less than 3 days ride away

Their presence means you cant take casterly rock by siege and they can march from casterly rock into lannisport by land which prob isnt very defensible being a port city (itl be heavily defended facing seawards)

The westerlands has a small fleet yes but that fleet must be dealt with before u can land troops

[Bright Blue Eyes]

If it was that hard to defend a landing in the medieval era, England would have fallen several time.

Well, it did. Straight from Roman times up until 1066 every single landing was successful.

Only one invasion of England (from the continent) was successful in the past thousand years; William Conqueror's, back when England was divided.

Landing was easy. Now, taking and holding all the castles as well as beating the armies on land on the other hand, that's different. But that wouldn't be necessary in case ot the Westerlands.

A lot more were attempted but it's just not that easy. The logistics alone of attempting to land 10K men from hundreds of boat is baffling. Re-organising your army afterward is just as hard (lacks of modern communications cuts both way) and Ironborn would be especially vulnerable to harassment from skirmisher cavalry while trying to do so since they have no cavalry of their own.

Beach that god-damned ship and jump off of it. What you refer to is the trouble of landing cannons and other heavy stuff.

A hard feat.

All the Lodbroks, Harald, William... . Shall I name a full hundred chieftains and Kings managing that?

Add that they seem to suck at siege and the westerlands are much more fortified than the North, and you got a very hard mission ahead.

Ashemark and the Crag fell fast enough to a vastly smaller force. The gold mines aren't inside the castles themselves as well.

[Pod The Rod]

If it was that hard to defend a landing in the medieval era, England would have fallen several time.

Only one invasion of England (from the continent) was successful in the past thousand years; William Conqueror's, back when England was divided.

A lot more were attempted but it's just not that easy. The logistics alone of attempting to land 10K men from hundreds of boat is baffling. Re-organising your army afterward is just as hard (lacks of modern communications cuts both way) and Ironborn would be especially vulnerable to harassment from skirmisher cavalry while trying to do so since they have no cavalry of their own.

A hard feat.

Add that they seem to suck at siege and the westerlands are much more fortified than the North, and you got a very hard mission ahead.

You're missing the point.

The Ironborn don't need to conquer the entire Westerlands. Nobody ever said they need to attack the Golden Tooth. What they need to do is ravage the coastline, hit Ashemark, the Crag, Casterly Rock, Lannisport, Crakehall, vanish out to sea, then strike somewhere else. They don't need to march inland, they need to hammer the Lannister's wealth and force them to respond. The very fact of a hostile IB means the Lannisters have to move home, exposing King's Landing to Stannis/ Renly and their flanks and rear to Robb Stark. They're doomed to lose in that case. And if the Lannisters do nothing, why, then the Ironborn CAN move inland.

And yes, England hasn't been successfully invaded since William the Conqueror. Do you know why? Because for a while after him, nobody cared enough to try. And then they were too busy fighting off the English who had preemptively invaded them (Hundred Years War). And then, once they wanted to invade and had their own lands secure, the English made sure to keep a bigger fleet than all of their competitors.

None of which applies to the Lannisters.

And do you know what the favorite target of the Vikings was? England. Because they could strike from the sea, sack a town, and be gone before inland forces could react.

[Mal Malenkirk]

All right, fair enough.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

They are 10k men and in oxcross described as less than 3 days ride away

Their presence means you cant take casterly rock by siege and they can march from casterly rock into lannisport by land which prob isnt very defensible being a port city (itl be heavily defended facing seawards)

The westerlands has a small fleet yes but that fleet must be dealt with before u can land troops

Now, please. Do pick one statement and stay with it.

[hodorisfaclessman]

Amphibious landing?

As Bright Blue Eyes said, Omaha Beach, Pelieliu, Iwo Jima, Tarawa et al. were only possible in the 20th century, where the defender knew the enemy was coming, could predict where they would land, and had the ability to engage them both before they landed and once they had hit the beach.

The Lannisters in case of an IB invasion wouldn't have any of that. They wouldn't know the kraken had emerged from the deep until it had wrapped its arms around Lannisport, because Balon would've sealed the islands like he did prior to invading the North. The Lannister fleet is no match for the Iron Fleet, so they couldn't stop the IB from landing anywhere they damn well pleased, even right inside Lannisport harbor (again). And if by some miracle Ser Stafford was in position to engage them, his 10k would be outnumbered by the IB's 15k, and not nearly as well trained. And again, these are the Ironborn we're talking about. They fight BEST near the water. They'd LOVE it if the Lannisters attempted to engage them as they came off the boats.

erm again as its been pointed out an amphibious landing is any attack from ships projecting a force onto land.....which of course occured long before ww2

Bear in mind with regards to response time the westerlands has shipping, fishing and military ships in the water which can all alert the shore , and is quite hilly giving good views and of course is a much much smaller area than the north meaning theres much better chance of being spotted(prob why euron chose the highly risky and tricky seaborne attack)

Their fleet is smaller yes but it still must be enaged and dealt with prior to a seaborne invasion otherwise the invasion fails right there,

the ironborns forces are actualy around 35k overall but thats the point ...for this to work they almost all have to be engaed at once and theres soo much that can go wrong in such a grand attack , by contrast the only problem balons northern plan would be if they didnt take moat cailin hence why he sent the iron fleet as overkill

[hodorisfaclessman]

Now, please. Do pick one statement and stay with it.

from land not by sea dude

port cities are generaly built to defend from seaborne attacks not from one comming inland

[Bright Blue Eyes]

from land not by sea dude

port cities are generaly built to defend from seaborne attacks not from one comming inland

Then why shouldn't the Ironborn disembark 200 meters further and attack from land? Or Robb, for that matter.

[hodorisfaclessman]

Then why shouldn't the Ironborn disembark 200 meters further and attack from land? Or Robb, for that matter.

200 metres? im assuming u meant a bit further to avoid being seen

If they land a little further up the coast it means the risky manuvre of sailing out to sea then sweepining inland(as euron does twice but is risky) then landing and marching a large force undetected up the coastline (bear in mind its a very hilly region giving good sweeping vision) to lannisport

The of course theres the problem that the fleet hasnt been dealt with and can sail out of the city if it comes under attack ....the fleet must be dealt with first and foremost for the ironborn.

[Pod The Rod]

erm again as its been pointed out an amphibious landing is any attack from ships projecting a force onto land.....which of course occured long before ww2

Bear in mind with regards to response time the westerlands has shipping, fishing and military ships in the water which can all alert the shore , and is quite hilly giving good views and of course is a much much smaller area than the north meaning theres much better chance of being spotted(prob why euron chose the highly risky and tricky seaborne attack)

Their fleet is smaller yes but it still must be enaged and dealt with prior to a seaborne invasion otherwise the invasion fails right there,

the ironborns forces are actualy around 35k overall but thats the point ...for this to work they almost all have to be engaed at once and theres soo much that can go wrong in such a grand attack , by contrast the only problem balons northern plan would be if they didnt take moat cailin hence why he sent the iron fleet as overkill

But will the Lannister fleet pose any trouble to the Iron Fleet? No. So just steamroll it and keep moving. As I said earlier, the Ironborn possess the ability to quickly strike anywhere along the Westerlands coast they please, sack a town or castle, and vanish. It's how they make war. The Lannisters would be forced to move home to deal with them, exposing Kings Landing and their rear. They lose in that case.

And yes, congratulations, you have successfully defined "Amphibious Assault".

Now explain to me how in an era before heavy artillery, the westermen can sink the IB ships before they land?

Explain to me how they'll be able to defend 35k men landing simultaneously at Crakehall and Ashemark with 10k green privycleaners at Lannisport, when they didn't know beforehand that's where the hammer was going to fall?

Explain to me how they can fortify hundreds of miles of coastline when Balon seals the islands and they aren't even aware there's a threat?

The IB's weakness is also their strength. They aren't very disciplined, and lack cavalry. So they can't stand up in a pitched battle against a real army. But they are ready to fight the moment they hit the surf. They don't waste time. Any reaction force would only arrive at smoking ruins.

[Mithras]

“You were on Pyke not long ago, and saw the king,” said Goodbrother. “Did Balon say aught to you of the succession?”

Aye. They had spoken in the Sea Tower, as the wind howled outside the windows and the waves crashed restlessly below. Balon had shaken his head in despair when he heard what Aeron had to tell him of his last remaining son. “The wolves have made a weakling of him, as I feared,” the king had said. “I pray god that they killed him, so he cannot stand in Asha’s way.” That was Balon’s blindness; he saw himself in his wild, headstrong daughter, and believed she could succeed him. He was wrong in that, and Aeron tried to tell him so. “No woman will ever rule the ironborn, not even a woman such as Asha,” he insisted, but Balon could be deaf to things he did not wish to hear.

Aeron adored Balon but even he was able to see how delusional he could be sometimes. Or let us say he shared the gift of Robert in the expressed in the bolded part. How could he realistically think that the ironborn would follow Asha after him?

[Pod The Rod]

“You were on Pyke not long ago, and saw the king,” said Goodbrother. “Did Balon say aught to you of the succession?”

Aye. They had spoken in the Sea Tower, as the wind howled outside the windows and the waves crashed restlessly below. Balon had shaken his head in despair when he heard what Aeron had to tell him of his last remaining son. “The wolves have made a weakling of him, as I feared,” the king had said. “I pray god that they killed him, so he cannot stand in Asha’s way.” That was Balon’s blindness; he saw himself in his wild, headstrong daughter, and believed she could succeed him. He was wrong in that, and Aeron tried to tell him so. “No woman will ever rule the ironborn, not even a woman such as Asha,” he insisted, but Balon could be deaf to things he did not wish to hear.

Aeron adored Balon but even he was able to see how delusional he could be sometimes. Or let us say he shared the gift of Robert in the expressed in the bolded part. How could he realistically think that the ironborn would follow Asha after him?

He loved his IB, and he didn't think they were stupid enough to reject the obvious best choice.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

200 metres? im assuming u meant a bit further to avoid being seen

Why should they? That's out of bow (and siege engine) range, good enough.

If they land a little further up the coast it means the risky manuvre of sailing out to sea then sweepining inland(as euron does twice but is risky) then landing and marching a large force undetected up the coastline (bear in mind its a very hilly region giving good sweeping vision) to lannisport

Why? There is no one there to contest them.

The of course theres the problem that the fleet hasnt been dealt with and can sail out of the city if it comes under attack ....the fleet must be dealt with first and foremost for the ironborn.

Then a small part of the Iron Fleet will wait for them and sink them. Or just plain avoid them.

erm again as its been pointed out an amphibious landing is any attack from ships projecting a force onto land.....which of course occured long before ww2

Strictly speaking, that is correct. But why an attack from ships? There is literally nobody on the shore to contest quite normal landing, absolutely uncontested.

[hodorisfaclessman]

-But will the Lannister fleet pose any trouble to the Iron Fleet? No. So just steamroll it and keep moving. As I said earlier, the Ironborn possess the ability to quickly strike anywhere along the Westerlands coast they please, sack a town or castle, and vanish. It's how they make war. The Lannisters would be forced to move home to deal with them, exposing Kings Landing and their rear. They lose in that case.

-And yes, congratulations, you have successfully defined "Amphibious Assault".

Now explain to me how in an era before heavy artillery, the westermen can sink the IB ships before they land?

Explain to me how they'll be able to defend 35k men landing simultaneously at Crakehall and Ashemark with 10k green privycleaners at Lannisport, when they didn't know beforehand that's where the hammer was going to fall?

Explain to me how they can fortify hundreds of miles of coastline when Balon seals the islands and they aren't even aware there's a threat?

The IB's weakness is also their strength. They aren't very disciplined, and lack cavalry. So they can't stand up in a pitched battle against a real army. But they are ready to fight the moment they hit the surf. They don't waste time. Any reaction force would only arrive at smoking ruins.

-They most deal with it first before landing though is the issue which although a foregone conclusion(bar some naval brillance from the westerlands) will mean people on shore are given time to organise

-Im not the one who earlier defined it in only ww2 terms

No they can sink their ships unless they have catapults etc set up but they can butcher their men as they land, landing troops are always vunerable

well lets see they have their own navy, merchant and fishing ships of the coast , high hills and mountains everywhere so theres a good chance they do get spotted ..unless the ironborn orgainise a huge assault from out at sea striking multiple targets at once

which brings us all the way back to the ease of doing this vs the assault on the north

[Bright Blue Eyes]

-Im not the one who earlier defined it in only ww2 terms

No they can sink their ships unless they have catapults etc set up but they can butcher their men as they land, landing troops are always vunerable

well lets see they have their own navy, merchant and fishing ships of the coast , high hills and mountains everywhere so theres a good chance they do get spotted ..unless the ironborn orgainise a huge assault from out at sea striking multiple targets at once

which brings us all the way back to the ease of doing this vs the assault on the north

So what? A shore-bound army might make twenty miles per day, a fleet easily makes a hundred and more. And the Westerlands sport more than a thousand miles of coast.

Should the Westermen post 10,000 men every twenty miles or the like? Then they may have chance to catch them while disembarking.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

Teaming up with Robb would have made sense.

Pulling an Asha (attack and then bargain for land) would have made sense.

Balon's plan to attack AND return to the old ways makes no sense....unless he had a secret ally or knew Euron was coming home.

[Mithras]

He loved his IB, and he didn't think they were stupid enough to reject the obvious best choice.

But Greyjoys were not murdered in Pyke except once in a great while by their brothers,

In the islands it was scarce unheard of for a strong, ambitious uncle to dispossess a weak nephew of his rights, and usually murder him in the bargain.

No, Balon was the stupid one to not look at history.

[hodorisfaclessman]

-Why should they? That's out of bow (and siege engine) range, good enough.

-Why? There is no one there to contest them.

-Then a small part of the Iron Fleet will wait for them and sink them. Or just plain avoid them.

-Strictly speaking, that is correct. But why an attack from ships? There is literally nobody on the shore to contest quite normal landing, absolutely uncontested.

- They can still be seen giving time to mount counterattacks , set the fleet out, close gates or what limited defences lannisport will have to its inland side and send ravens/messangers in all directions

- there are still the remaining skeleton garrisons of many lords, steffans 10k , the garrisons of casterly rock and lannisport and the westerlands fleet. All making landing unetected essential to avoid either defeat or at least heavy casulties.

-They could sent part to land and leave enough at sea to trap the lannisport fleet there but now of course were getting into larger and more comlicated assaults which was the contrast with the much easier northern assault.

they cant ignore them as even a smaller fleet can block their landing or destroy them from the rear if left alone and forgot about.

- if they land up the shore and are spotted it gives time for steffan to march back to casterly rock or even lannisport before them

not to mention minor lords may send fractions of what remains of their forces not sent to war and remaining casterly rock garrisons and lannsiports.

[Fire Eater]

“You were on Pyke not long ago, and saw the king,” said Goodbrother. “Did Balon say aught to you of the succession?”

Aye. They had spoken in the Sea Tower, as the wind howled outside the windows and the waves crashed restlessly below. Balon had shaken his head in despair when he heard what Aeron had to tell him of his last remaining son. “The wolves have made a weakling of him, as I feared,” the king had said. “I pray god that they killed him, so he cannot stand in Asha’s way.” That was Balon’s blindness; he saw himself in his wild, headstrong daughter, and believed she could succeed him. He was wrong in that, and Aeron tried to tell him so. “No woman will ever rule the ironborn, not even a woman such as Asha,” he insisted, but Balon could be deaf to things he did not wish to hear.

Aeron adored Balon but even he was able to see how delusional he could be sometimes. Or let us say he shared the gift of Robert in the expressed in the bolded part. How could he realistically think that the ironborn would follow Asha after him?

Deaf to things he didn't wish to hear? That is never a good trait in a ruler. That likely means Balon preferred "yes men." The wise heed those who speak the truth, people who tell them what they need to hear, while the fools heed those who speak flattery, who tell them what they wish to hear. You're supposed to make decisions based on facts not wishful thinking.