R+L=J v 87

[BearQueen87]

This is funny if you imagine this happens after midnight.

Hightower: I am not traveling at this hour to get her pickles!

Dayne: Look, I know. It's a pain. But she is sorta carrying TPTWP

Whent: He's got a point, LC.

Hightower: This better be the most miraculous baby EVER. *grumbles and gets on horse* *rides off*

Lyanna: Guys. I changed my mind. Can I have some lemon cakes instead? The Prince that was Promised decided that sounded much more appealing.

[stateofdissipation]

what text do you have that shows Jon was born pre-showdown?

I

We have GRRM stating that Dany was born 9 months after the Sack, and that Jon was born 8 to 9 months prior to Dany, which means, that Jon was born in a timeframe that lasts from the Sack until a month after.

Comparing the distance from the Trident to King's Landing, a distance that Ned travelled with an army in a week (as stated in the text, Rossart was Hand for a fortnight=14 days. Rossart became Hand before Rhaegar went to the Trident, since Rhaegar left with Jon Darry, and Jon Darry was still in KL the night that Rossarts predecessor died -- With Rhaegar and army traveling to the Trident, two armies fighting, the rebels regrouping and traveling to KL all in 2 week, Ned's time for travelling from the Trident to KL is on average a week), we can see that it would have taken Ned slightly more than a week to travel from KL to Storm's End (the distance is about the same, but an army would not be able to travel at such a high speed two weeks in a row, so the speed would be down slightly), and about 2 weeks to travel from SE to TOJ (since the distance is about twice as much as the distance between KL and SE).

That's a bit more than three weeks.

Add to that Ned's time at KL until Robert arrived (and we know that Robert arrived later, because he had been injured), Neds time arguing with Robert at KL, Ned's time at SE to sort out the Siege, you come up to a month.

Which covers the period in which Jon was born according to GRRM

Also, this:

Arya Targaryen, on 15 Jul 2014 - 11:05 PM, said:

We have GRRM stating that Dany was born 9 months after the Sack, and that Jon was born 8 to 9 months prior to Dany, which means, that Jon was born in a timeframe that lasts from the Sack until a month after.

Rhaella and Viserys fled to dragonstone after the Trident. Not the Sack of Kingslanding- http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/FAQ/Entry/What_happened_when_during_Roberts_Rebellion

if that is your source....

Dany was born 9 months after the death of Rhaegar.

That actually helps your case--

Jon was born one month before Rhaegar died up until Rhaegar's death

But I don't know your source.

There was blood on Lyanna's bed? She was there in her bed of blood -but would Ned refer to as that if Lyanna died BEFORE giving birth (and therefore, there is no blood?)

would Ned refer to her as in a bed of blood a month after she had given birth?

---using RT's timeline, Jon was born 1 to 2 months before Ned arrived.--

Ned finds her after the showdown, so Lyanna either gave birth while those guys were fighting, or before. Or after she died. Which is highly unlikely.

--If Lyanna died immediately after the showdown (which has not been shown).-- the options would be before or during--

I asked for text showing before... and you give me before or during... ok..

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Hightower: I am not traveling at this hour to get her pickles!

Dayne: Look, I know. It's a pain. But she is sorta carrying TPTWP

Whent: He's got a point, LC.

Hightower: This better be the most miraculous baby EVER. *grumbles and gets on horse* *rides off*

Lyanna: Guys. I changed my mind. Can I have some lemon cakes instead? The Prince that was Promised decided that sounded much more appealing.

:lmao:

Hightower: This is why I never married and choose celibacy!

[Ygrain]

This is funny if you imagine this happens after midnight.

Of course it does. Wouldn't be half the fun at daytime

Hightower: I am not traveling at this hour to get her pickles!

Dayne: Look, I know. It's a pain. But she is sorta carrying TPTWP

Whent: He's got a point, LC.

Hightower: This better be the most miraculous baby EVER. *grumbles and gets on horse* *rides off*

Lyanna: Guys. I changed my mind. Can I have some lemon cakes instead? The Prince that was Promised decided that sounded much more appealing.

:lmao:

/over Jon's craddle/: "Hush! Do you want to wake the dragon?"

/Dayne facepalms/: "I'd rather be dead than live to see him teething."

[stateofdissipation]

There was blood on Lyanna's bed? She was there in her bed of blood - but would Ned refer to as that if Lyanna died BEFORE giving birth (and therefore, there is no blood?) Ned finds her after the showdown, so Lyanna either gave birth while those guys were fighting, or before. Or after she died. Which is highly unlikely.

If you mean that they moved a pregnant Lyanna to Starfall or anywhere and she died there: that makes no sense, since Ned destroyed the ToJ because Lyanna died there IIRC.

There was blood on Lyanna's bed? She was there in her bed of blood - AT Bed of blood refers to childbirth...

...that kind of favors during...

Do you have anything that favors before?

[BearQueen87]

Of course it does. Wouldn't be half the fun at daytime

:lmao:

/over Jon's craddle/: "Hush! Do you want to wake the dragon?"

/Dayne facepalms/: "I'd rather be dead than live to see him teething."

Omg. I now have visions of toddler Jon running around and Hightower trying to catch him.

[Ygrain]

Omg. I now have visions of toddler Jon running around and Hightower trying to catch him.

"Wait! My knees do not bend so easily any more! I swear I - leave His Majesty's harp alone!" /a crashing sound/ "OMFGs... I'm screwed. Kingsguard doesn't flee."

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Rhaella and Viserys fled to dragonstone after the Trident. Not the Sack of Kingslanding- http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/FAQ/Entry/What_happened_when_during_Roberts_Rebellion

if that is your source....

That is not my source. But fine, let's add a few days to my calculation because it was 9 months after the flight .

My source was this:

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1040/

Dany was born 9 months after the death of Rhaegar.

That actually helps your case--

Jon was born one month before Rhaegar died up until Rhaegar's death

No, you're counting the wrong way.

Dany's birth - 9 months = halfway in between the battle of the Trident and the Sack.

Subtract 8 months from Dany's birth, you find yourself almost 4 weeks after the Sack

Subtract 9 months from Dany's birtg, you'll find yourself in between the Trident and the Sack.

Those are the two options for Jobs birth, the minimum and the maximum. And of course everything in between. Showing that in both cases, Rhaegar died first, then Jon was born. Jon cannot have been born a month before Rhaegar died.

would Ned refer to her as in a bed of blood a month after she had given birth?

---using RT's timeline, Jon was born 1 to 2 months before Ned arrived.

No, again, you are using the timeline wrong.

Very wrong.

[Emerentiana_Zamora]

Lyanna: Can someone change his diaper please?

Hightower: I am not a servant why can't you do it yourself.

Lyanna: I don't know, maybe because I am dying after giving birth to your prince.

Whent: One moment, someone will be up soon.

Dayne: So what was the messenger about.

Whent: Our prince is now our king.

Hightower: WHAT?

Whent: Shhh...so who is going to change his diaper.

Dayne: Not it.

Hightower: Not it

Whent: What, why me?

Dayne: You just told us awful news. This is your payment.

[Aeron_Damphair]

Cycling back a bit to the name thing. I don't think it's a coincidence that "Jon Snow"~"John Doe."

Sure he's named after Jon Arryn, but I fully believe the principle of desired anonymity went into the name, even if it is at the level of the author and not the character who named him. Probably nothing new, but mildly suggestive of the possibility that he had a different name at birth, with which I agree.

[Alia of the knife]

Awesome, three kingsguard and a baby.

Who is changing baby J's diapers?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Awesome, three kingsguard and a baby.

Who is changing baby J's diapers?

They run a circle around the tower, and whoever is slowest has to do the job :P

[Alia of the knife]

They run a circle around the tower, and whoever is slowest has to do the job :P

I would run REALLY fast.😛

[stateofdissipation]

No, but text isn't necessary.

There is this wonderful tool called logic. So let's use it.

For Jon was born before: The Kingsguard duty is to defend the king and/or his immediately family. If they do not believe Jon to be king, they have no reason to be there. Jon is a cousin of Viserys (which would not necessitate three of them staying there, if any), who would be the rightful king if it is not Jon. Since we know that they are honorable men, the epitome of what honorable means, by far the simplest explanation is that they believe Jon to be their king.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor

Any other explanation requires mental gymnastics or significantly more numerous and more severe assumptions to make sense. Therefore, I'm going with the simplest explanation.

For she died immediately after:

Yes, they moved a 9 month pregnant woman over mountainous terrain, in a world where even a short journey is at least a full day's ride, from the relative safety of an isolated Tower to somewhere else. (See the above link).

Text confirmation is the only way to be 100% sure. In the absence of that, we use logic and the information we have available, with as few minor assumptions as possible, to get us to the closest approximation of the correct answer.

In Logic a formal fallacy is a pattern of reasoning that is always wrong. This is due to a flaw in the logical structure of the argument which renders the argument invalid.

A logical fallacy referred to as affirming the consequent, which would look like this:

1. If P then Q

Q

therefore P

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

1. If king then kinguard

2. kingsguard

3. Therefore king

AFFIRMING THE CONSEQUENT

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

This is a fallacy because it does not take into account other possibilities. To illustrate this more clearly, substitute the letters with premises.

1. If it rains, the street will be wet

The street is wet.

Therefore it rained.

Although it is possible that this conclusion is true, it does not necessarily mean it MUST be true.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

For Jon was born before:

The Kingsguard duty is to defend the king and/or his immediately family. if they do not believe Jon to be king, they have no reason to be there.

Negative conclusion from affirmative premises (illicit affirmative) – when a categorical syllogism has a negative conclusion but affirmative premises.

Jon is a cousin of Viserys (which would not necessitate three of them staying there, if any), who would be the rightful king if it is not Jon.

Begging the question (petitio principii) – providing what is essentially the conclusion of the argument as a premise.

Since we know that they are honorable men, the epitome of what honorable means, by far the simplest explanation is that they believe Jon to be their king.

Affirming a disjunct – concluded that one disjunct of a logical disjunction must be false because the other disjunct is true; A or B; A; therefore not B

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

For Jon was born before: The Kingsguard duty is to defend the king and/or his immediately family. If they do not believe Jon to be king, they have no reason to be there. Jon is a cousin of Viserys (which would not necessitate three of them staying there, if any), who would be the rightful king if it is not Jon. Since we know that they are honorable men, the epitome of what honorable means, by far the simplest explanation is that they believe Jon to be their king.

As a whole...

Begging the question (petitio principii) – providing what is essentially the conclusion of the argument as a premise.

Retrospective determinism – the argument that because some event has occurred, its occurrence must have been inevitable beforehand.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Any other explanation requires mental gymnastics or significantly more numerous and more severe assumptions to make sense. Therefore, I'm going with the simplest explanation.

For she died immediately after:

Yes, they moved a 9 month pregnant woman over mountainous terrain, in a world where even a short journey is at least a full day's ride, from the relative safety of an isolated Tower to somewhere else. (See the above link).

Red herring – argument given in response to another argument, which is irrelevant and draws attention away from the subject of argument.

based on

Straw man – an argument based on misrepresentation of an opponent's position

your answer does not relate to the time of death.

Text confirmation is the only way to be 100% sure. In the absence of that, we use logic and the information we have available, with as few minor assumptions as possible, to get us to the closest approximation of the correct answer.

Still waiting on logic and information available... it would help if you stated your assumptions at least...

[MtnLion]

<snip>

You are doing well. Here is the actual data. Daenerys was born nine months after her mother fled King's Landing, therefore we know that GRRM is using 9 month gestation. Daenerys was conceived on the night that Chelsted was roasted, because Jaime tells us about it, and we know that both Aerys and Rhaella avoided each other as much as possible. We know that Jonothor Darry was with Jaime that night, and that Rossart was Hand for a fortnight before being killed by Jaime. Rhaegar and Darry went to the Trident a fortnight before the fall of King's Landing. GRRM states that Jon is eight to nine months older than Daenerys. If he is nine months older he is born a fortnight before the fall of King's Landing, if he is eight months older he is born a fortnight after the fall of King's Landing. The absolute latest time that Ned can arrive at the tower of joy is a fortnight plus ten days (3.5 weeks) after the fall of King's Landing. That includes that Jon must be born ten days before Ned arrives. When you put all of the clues into a hat and pick them out one by one, it is easy to pick on one aspect. That is what STD SOD does, pick one item at a time. It is the whole of the clues that point to one specific event being Jon's birth, five to ten days before Ned arrives. Ned must travel a great distance to get to Storm's End and receive the surrender that he documents in his dream before he travels to the tower.

[BearQueen87]

You are doing well. Here is the actual data. Daenerys was born nine months after her mother fled King's Landing, therefore we know that GRRM is using 9 month gestation. Daenerys was conceived on the night that Chelsted was roasted, because Jaime tells us about it, and we know that both Aerys and Rhaella avoided each other as much as possible. We know that Jonothor Darry was with Jaime that night, and that Rossart was Hand for a fortnight before being killed by Jaime. Rhaegar and Darry went to the Trident a fortnight before the fall of King's Landing. GRRM states that Jon is eight to nine months older than Daenerys. If he is nine months older he is born a fortnight before the fall of King's Landing, if he is eight months older he is born a fortnight after the fall of King's Landing. The absolute latest time that Ned can arrive at the tower of joy is a fortnight plus ten days (3.5 weeks) after the fall of King's Landing. That includes that Jon must be born ten days before Ned arrives. When you put all of the clues into a hat and pick them out one by one, it is easy to pick on one aspect. That is what STD SOD does, pick one item at a time. It is the whole of the clues that point to one specific event being Jon's birth, five to ten days before Ned arrives. Ned must travel a great distance to get to Storm's End and receive the surrender that he documents in his dream before he travels to the tower.

Bless you.

[Ygritte]

Awesome, three kingsguard and a baby.

Who is changing baby J's diapers?

"Nobody told us about the Poop that was Promised."

[stateofdissipation]

That is not my source. But fine, let's add a few days to my calculation because it was 9 months after the flight .

My source was this:

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1040/

No, you're counting the wrong way.

Dany's birth - 9 months = halfway in between the battle of the Trident and the Sack.

Subtract 8 months from Dany's birth, you find yourself almost 4 weeks after the Sack

Subtract 9 months from Dany's birtg, you'll find yourself in between the Trident and the Sack.

Those are the two options for Jobs birth, the minimum and the maximum. And of course everything in between. Showing that in both cases, Rhaegar died first, then Jon was born. Jon cannot have been born a month before Rhaegar died.

No, again, you are using the timeline wrong.

Very wrong.

Dany was born 9 months after the death of Rhaegar.

That actually helps your case--

Jon was born one month before Rhaegar died up until Rhaegar's death

That actually helps your case--

Jon was born one month before Rhaegar died up until Rhaegar's death

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

---All of which is a long winded way of saying, no, Jon was not born "more than 1 year" before Dany... probably closer to eight or nine months or thereabouts---http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1040/ Your source

---When news of Rhaegar’s death and the defeat of the royalists reached King’s Landing, the newly-pregnant Queen Rhaella and her son Prince Viserys were sent to Dragonstone (I: 25)

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/FAQ/Entry/What_happened_when_during_Roberts_Rebellion

If the link is not close enough for you.. please provide your own...

(given a 9 month pregnancy) Jon's birth was the earliest 1 month before the news of Rhaegar's death reached King's landing (Dany's birth -8) and the latest when news of Raegar's death reached King's Landing, (Dany's birth-9)

[Alia of the knife]

"Nobody told us about the Poop that was Promised."

Thats beautiful. 😁

[BearQueen87]

"Nobody told us about the Poop that was Promised."

you win.