R+L=J v. 88

[stateofdissipation]

For your first one, http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/. We don't have the time to go through and find the specific instance of him saying Dany was born 8 or 9 months after Jon, so it's not a specific link. You can find it yourself. If you're saying that we didn't provide proof to Jon's time of birth NOT in that range, um, yeah, because there isn't any.

Ned talked with Lyanna after dying. Therefore, Lyanna's death is 100% known to be after Ned's arrival (find a promise me Ned memory yourself). Symptoms suggest she died 3-10 days after Jon's birth (see previous linked sources from others). Moving a deathly sick woman to a location other than the ToJ does not make sense. So if you want to hold onto the .0001% chance they did that, go ahead. We can't get to 100%. In Catelyn's second chapter in a GoT, she refers to Ned being gone a year, so with the combination of war and travel back all the way to Winterfell, they cannot have lingered at the ToJ or any other location for long, regardless of her manner of dying.

If you are SO adamant on knowing exactly when Lyanna died in relation to Ned's arrival, you have the source (the books). Find out how long the wars take. You have an approximate travel time for Ned after the rebellion is immediately over. You can assume that same time back to KL. And it is mentioned somewhere how long Robert's royal train took to get from Winterfell to KL. On the way back, they're travelling with a newborn babe, so they cannot move all that quickly. All of that takes course in a year.

If you're saying that we didn't provide proof to Jon's time of birth NOT in that range, um, yeah, because there isn't any.

---I provided the specific link earlier...http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1040/

Ned talked with Lyanna after dying. Therefore, Lyanna's death is 100% known to be after Ned's arrival (find a promise me Ned memory yourself).

Game of Thrones, Chapter 4, Eddard.

Symptoms suggest she died 3-10 days after Jon's birth (see previous linked sources from others).

Game of Thrones, Chapter 4, Eddard.

Moving a deathly sick woman to a location other than the ToJ does not make sense. So if you want to hold onto the .0001% chance they did that, go ahead. We can't get to 100%.

--I am not holding on to she was moved.-- that was a response to my post... stating that the time between the ToJ and Lyanna's death was undetermined...

The association between the ToJ and Lyanna's death comes from A Game of Thrones, Chapter 39, Eddard.

--after Ned and the KG rush together-- Blue rose petals float across a blood streaked sky-- Lyanna screams Lord Eddard..

should be accompanied by

----I might mention, though, that Ned's account, which you refer to, was in the context of a dream... and a fever dream at that. Our dreams are not always literal.

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Concerning_the_Tower_of_Joy

In Catelyn's second chapter in a GoT, she refers to Ned being gone a year, so with the combination of war and travel back all the way to Winterfell, they cannot have lingered at the ToJ or any other location for long, regardless of her manner of dying.

ok..

If you are SO adamant on knowing exactly when Lyanna died in relation to Ned's arrival, you have the source (the books).

Done and cited above.

Now if you are adamant about claiming exactly when lyanna died in relation to Ned's arrival.. could you at least provide a source?

If there is no source, could you at least admit that there is no source associating Lyanna's death with Ned's arrival at the ToJ?

Find out how long the wars take. You have an approximate travel time for Ned after the rebellion is immediately over. You can assume that same time back to KL. And it is mentioned somewhere how long Robert's royal train took to get from Winterfell to KL. On the way back, they're travelling with a newborn babe, so they cannot move all that quickly. All of that takes course in a year.

Ok...

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Your travel times fail to account that Ned was riding with a group of 6 and not marching an army from sometime after SE to the ToJ

It is true that Ned and his 6 companions might have been able to travel faster than they previously had been able to do with the entire army behind them.

Though it should be stated that the march from the Trident to KL was at the highest speed they could (it was most important to arrive at KL as soon as possible), and that the same most likely is true for the march from KL to SE (since it was most important that the siege was ended as soon as was possible, due to starvation issues inside SE).

Also, though the march from KL to SE was by road, the travel from SE to TOJ would partly be through mountains, which is a rougher area, which will slow down the travelers a bit.

You did not provide further evidence of Jon's time of birth outside the 8 to 9 months before Dany--

What other evidence do you need? You asked for evidence and I've provided it.

You did not provide further evidence of Lyanna's death in relation to Ned's arrival--

I provided you the time window of Jon's birth. Lyanna died 3 to 10 days after Jon's birth. I've shown you the earliest that Ned can arrive at the TOJ, which was day 33, which is 3 days after Jon's window of time for birth has ended. So I've shown that Lyanna would have at least been sick by the time Ned arrived.

It thus seems that Lyanna was at least sick (and thus had a fever) when Ned arrived at ToJ. That places her death not all too long after his arrival.

The fact that "they" found him (Ned) holding her body, suggests that "they" had no idea where Ned was. Otherwise, you would not be finding a person. The only reason for Howland and whoever else might have been at the tower to find Ned, is because they had still been somewhere else, either outside of the tower, or in another part of the tower, while Ned went to Lyanna.

Had they been at the tower for a longer time (several days), it would only be expected for Ned to be by Lyanna's side.. No need for finding Ned then. They would already know where he is.

That is what we have to connect Ned's arrival to Lyanna's death. That, and a timeline which shows that Lyanna won't have lived that long after the earliest possible moment of Ned's arrival... And that is assuming that Lyanna gave birth at the absolute last possible day of the timeframe, which, in itself, is only a chance of 1/30.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Thanks for this. That FAQ "What happened when" post makes it kind of confusing--it makes it sound like the wildfire plot was subsequent to Rhaegar's death because of the way the paragraph is written, and I couldn't remember from canon.

We don't know whether or not Rhaegar was aware of the wildfire plot. He might have been, since Aerys' love for pyromancers must have been obvious. But if Rhaegar was aware of the wildfire plot, he'd know that the wildfire plot was only for when the royal forces lost. And everything about Rhaegar leaving for the Trident suggests that he was confident he was going to win and return to KL.

We can't say exactly when the pyromancers started to make the "fruits" for Aerys. But it seems unlikely them managed to produce so many within onnly a few days.. So most logically, Rhaegar's death won't have triggered the plan to go into motion. At the very least, Rhaegar's death led to Aerys ordering the "fruits" placed in their secret locations, because the time of using them was nearing.

[stateofdissipation]

If Lyanna died from puerperal fever (which is a strong possibility), then Jon should be born at most fortnight before the arrival of Ned to ToJ. This makes it unlikely of Jon being born during the Sack. I think Jon was born after 1-2 weeks of the Sack to give Ned a month to be able to (find and) come to the ToJ. That means Jon was born a king.

If Lyanna died from puerperal fever (which is a strong possibility), then Jon should be born at most fortnight before the arrival of Ned to ToJ.

Lyanna's fever cited as cause of death in AGOT eddard chapter 4...

Note: Ned with Lyanna

Puerperal fever cited in the following link http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puerperal_fever

death 3-10 days after childbirth.

That makes Lyanna's death with Ned, 3-10 days after childbirth

Neither sources include Ned's arrival at the ToJ.-- Your conclusion does not follow your premise.

This makes it unlikely of Jon being born during the Sack. I think Jon was born after 1-2 weeks of the Sack to give Ned a month to be able to (find and) come to the ToJ. That means Jon was born a king.

[Ygritte]

We don't know whether or not Rhaegar was aware of the wildfire plot. He might have been, since Aerys' love for pyromancers must have been obvious. But if Rhaegar was aware of the wildfire plot, he'd know that the wildfire plot was only for when the royal forces lost. And everything about Rhaegar leaving for the Trident suggests that he was confident he was going to win and return to KL.

We can't say exactly when the pyromancers started to make the "fruits" for Aerys. But it seems unlikely them managed to produce so many within onnly a few days.. So most logically, Rhaegar's death won't have triggered the plan to go into motion. At the very least, Rhaegar's death led to Aerys ordering the "fruits" placed in their secret locations, because the time of using them was nearing.

Sorry, I wasn't trying to imply he knew about it, just that the FAQ essay is confusing and kind of makes it sound like the wildfire plot happened after news of Rhaegar's death reached KL, rather than before.

Yeah, I don't think they'd have had time to make them all in two weeks, especially with the magic out of the world; in ACOK they're able to make them faster because the return of magic has made their spells stronger. And they still use a lot of Aerys's old ones in addition to the new ones.

[JonSnow4President]

If Lyanna died from puerperal fever (which is a strong possibility), then Jon should be born at most fortnight before the arrival of Ned to ToJ.

Lyanna's fever cited as cause of death in AGOT eddard chapter 4...

Note: Ned with Lyanna

Puerperal fever cited in the following link http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puerperal_fever

death 3-10 days after childbirth.

That makes Lyanna's death with Ned, 3-10 days after childbirth

Neither sources include Ned's arrival at the ToJ.-- Your conclusion does not follow your premise.

This makes it unlikely of Jon being born during the Sack. I think Jon was born after 1-2 weeks of the Sack to give Ned a month to be able to (find and) come to the ToJ. That means Jon was born a king.

So, let me get this straight. We've provided, based on text and Martin sources, a time window in which Jon was born. We've provided, based on a text source, an approximation of when Ned arrived relative to the window of Jon's birth (3-14 days after), which you've agreed is reasonable. You seem to agree that Lyanna died 3-10 days after childbirth, based on a sickness consistent with her symptoms from the text. And we know that Ned must have arrived prior to Lyanna's death, because he talked with her, per the text.

A+B+C+x=D is in the text, and the text provides A, B, C, and D, but you are saying that we can't calculate x because it's not directly mentioned?

[Ser Creighton]

Remember when I asked you if it was reasonable to use your own assumptions as the basis for further assumptions?--Fan fictionI also asked if was ok to include your conclusion in your premise...--Not reasonable

Assumption is an interesting word, and gets tossed around a lot

http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/assumption

A thing that is accepted as true or as certain to happen, without proof:

I mean I might conclude from your own arguments that you are making an argument from ignorance. It was you asking for the information right? You did not supply it yourself?

Argument from ignorance (Latin: argumentum ad ignorantiam), also known as appeal to ignorance (in which ignorance stands for "lack of evidence to the contrary"), is a fallacy in informal logic. It asserts that a proposition is true because it has not yet been proven false (or vice versa).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_ignorance

I was asking for information because I am unable to find it. I did not say it does not exist. I am asserting only that I do not have the information.

Ignoratio elenchi are you familiar with this?

Ignoratio elenchi, also known as irrelevant conclusion,^[1] is the informal fallacy of presenting an argument that may or may not be logically valid, but fails nonetheless to address the issue in question. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignoratio_elenchi.

Like giving the link to a fever when I asked for a source to the time of Jon's birth. The link was completely valid but had nothing to do with the question. Yes i am familiar with this.

As it stands not many people are sure exactly what you are debating or stating?

---What is your source for Jon's time of birth?

assuming you intended the fever to put the birth at 3-10 days before Lyanna's death

---What is your source for Lyanna's time of death?

Moving the goal posts? Yes this I am sure you did this multiple times.

You cited and provided for a link to the fever..Multiple (once each for a total of 2) times.

No matter what was presented it just was not good enou.gh for you and you kept requiring more evidence.

What you provided was--Ignoratio elenchi.. I have not asked for more evidence... some would be quite fine.

If it is theoretical it does not require proof and assumptions are perfectly valid once again taking the argument out of context.

You asked for evidence from valid sources you received them. Wasn't enough, go read your own posts you wanted even more valid sources.

You could not find the information? Why is it everyone else's job to find the information for you. Then when information is given it is not good enough in your opinion. Which means the debate has moved from logic to perception and bias whatever a bias may be.

One person gave you a link to a fever? So what you have received many a link sense then and many a quote. Go look at your request from Ygritte, her quote was not good enough, a simple paraphrased quote from Dany chapter 1 Thrones. One of the first chapters in the first book. You could not find this? You could not find Dany chapter 1? Really? Do you own the books? I took me less then 5 minutes to find the information you were looking for on google doing a basic search and well Dany chapter 1 Thrones seems simple enough.

You seek proof on matters of theory, but as much as you can ask it to be proven, there is also the burden disprove you place on yourself. It goes either way.

It's true some fans except theory as cannon and their is nothing you can do about that. But the site itself considers R+L=J to be theoretical and most discussions on R+L=J are based on that basic knowledge. If you want the definitive answer you are in the wrong place perhaps you can try Martin he has his own site and makes public appearances.

You want information on when Lyanna died in relation to Neds arrival? She died in his arms it's in the book. Don't except that then your debate is with the author.

What further evidence do you want on Jon being born? You understand he was born right? He is in fact a character in the books. What time would you like? It's a large enough window to fit in whatever you want really. You will never get an exact day from the books. At most you will get a moon, crescent, half, full.

Why are you so full in on knowing the exact day when the author already said he pretty much does not do that? And yes you have link to a highly valid source for this. What point are you trying to make about Jon's birth.

As to your last comment in the reply, Tu quoque. My statements are no less valid because you feel I did the same thing. Which I may have but I will never reveal that.

[stateofdissipation]

It is true that Ned and his 6 companions might have been able to travel faster than they previously had been able to do with the entire army behind them.

Though it should be stated that the march from the Trident to KL was at the highest speed they could (it was most important to arrive at KL as soon as possible), and that the same most likely is true for the march from KL to SE (since it was most important that the siege was ended as soon as was possible, due to starvation issues inside SE).

Also, though the march from KL to SE was by road, the travel from SE to TOJ would partly be through mountains, which is a rougher area, which will slow down the travelers a bit.

What other evidence do you need? You asked for evidence and I've provided it.

I provided you the time window of Jon's birth. Lyanna died 3 to 10 days after Jon's birth. I've shown you the earliest that Ned can arrive at the TOJ, which was day 33, which is 3 days after Jon's window of time for birth has ended. So I've shown that Lyanna would have at least been sick by the time Ned arrived.

It thus seems that Lyanna was at least sick (and thus had a fever) when Ned arrived at ToJ. That places her death not all too long after his arrival.

The fact that "they" found him (Ned) holding her body, suggests that "they" had no idea where Ned was. Otherwise, you would not be finding a person. The only reason for Howland and whoever else might have been at the tower to find Ned, is because they had still been somewhere else, either outside of the tower, or in another part of the tower, while Ned went to Lyanna.

Had they been at the tower for a longer time (several days), it would only be expected for Ned to be by Lyanna's side.. No need for finding Ned then. They would already know where he is.

That is what we have to connect Ned's arrival to Lyanna's death. That, and a timeline which shows that Lyanna won't have lived that long after the earliest possible moment of Ned's arrival... And that is assuming that Lyanna gave birth at the absolute last possible day of the timeframe, which, in itself, is only a chance of 1/30.

It is true that Ned and his 6 companions might have been able to travel faster than they previously had been able to do with the entire army behind them.

Though it should be stated that the march from the Trident to KL was at the highest speed they could (it was most important to arrive at KL as soon as possible), and that the same most likely is true for the march from KL to SE (since it was most important that the siege was ended as soon as was possible, due to starvation issues inside SE).

Do you wish to alter your rate of march?

Also, though the march from KL to SE was by road, the travel from SE to TOJ would partly be through mountains, which is a rougher area, which will slow down the travelers a bit.

The same would be true for an army walking. you are still left with: It is true that Ned and his 6 companions might have been able to travel faster than they previously had been able to do with the entire army behind them.

What other evidence do you need? You asked for evidence and I've provided it.

you provided a scenario where Ned arrived to the ToJ 3-6 days after Jon was born--

I accepted your scenario... I asked a valid question... which you answered It is true that Ned and his 6 companions might have been able to travel faster than they previously had been able to do with the entire army behind them.

you also stated; Though it should be stated that the march from the Trident to KL was at the highest speed they could (it was most important to arrive at KL as soon as possible), and that the same most likely is true for the march from KL to SE (since it was most important that the siege was ended as soon as was possible, due to starvation issues inside SE).

Are you asserting that an army with a purpose can march faster than 7 men on horseback?

I would like clarification... do you mean to adjust your initial estimated travel times?

Because if you do that is fine....I followed how you got to your first ones.

I provided you the time window of Jon's birth. Lyanna died 3 to 10 days after Jon's birth. I've shown you the earliest that Ned can arrive at the TOJ, which was day 33, which is 3 days after Jon's window of time for birth has ended. So I've shown that Lyanna would have at least been sick by the time Ned arrived.

The admission It is true that Ned and his 6 companions might have been able to travel faster than they previously had been able to do with the entire army behind them.-- applied to the timeline you provided...can put Ned to the ToJ before Jon's birth.

It thus seems that Lyanna was at least sick (and thus had a fever) when Ned arrived at ToJ. That places her death not all too long after his arrival.

--Not long

The fact that "they" found him (Ned) holding her body, suggests that "they" had no idea where Ned was. Otherwise, you would not be finding a person.

If I find you with your pants down. Did I find where you were or did i find what you are doing? The inclusion of what he was doing in they found Ned indicates suprise not in his location but hia activity. They found Ned. indicates that they were looking for is location.

The only reason for Howland and whoever else might have been at the tower to find Ned, is because they had still been somewhere else, either outside of the tower, or in another part of the tower, while Ned went to Lyanna.

OK..

Had they been at the tower for a longer time (several days), it would only be expected for Ned to be by Lyanna's side.No need for finding Ned then. They would already know where he is.

The passage does not have him by her side. It has Ned holding the hand of a DEAD Lyanna. So would it be expected after several days to find Ned with a DEAD Lyanna?

That is what we have to connect Ned's arrival to Lyanna's death.

OK...

That, and a timeline which shows that Lyanna won't have lived that long after the earliest possible moment of Ned's arrival...

The earliest possible arrival of Ned by your timeline and your admission is before Jon was born.

And that is assuming that Lyanna gave birth at the absolute last possible day of the timeframe, which, in itself, is only a chance of 1/30.

ok..you had assumed that and I had accepted it... do you wish to adjust it now?

[stateofdissipation]

So, let me get this straight. We've provided, based on text and Martin sources, a time window in which Jon was born. We've provided, based on a text source, an approximation of when Ned arrived relative to the window of Jon's birth (3-14 days after), which you've agreed is reasonable. You seem to agree that Lyanna died 3-10 days after childbirth, based on a sickness consistent with her symptoms from the text. And we know that Ned must have arrived prior to Lyanna's death, because he talked with her, per the text.

A+B+C+x=D is in the text, and the text provides A, B, C, and D, but you are saying that we can't calculate x because it's not directly mentioned?

So, let me get this straight. We've provided, based on text and Martin sources, a time window in which Jon was born. We've provided, based on a text source

Do you mean?

For your first one, http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/. We don't have the time to go through and find the specific instance of him saying Dany was born 8 or 9 months after Jon, so it's not a specific link. You can find it yourself. If you're saying that we didn't provide proof to Jon's time of birth NOT in that range, um, yeah, because there isn't any.

Are you talking about the text and Martin sources I provided to you....

You seem to agree that Lyanna died 3-10 days after childbirth, based on a sickness consistent with her symptoms from the text.

YES I provided sources on the sickness (independentl) as well as the symptoms (text)...

And we know that Ned must have arrived prior to Lyanna's death, because he talked with her, per the text.

YES I provided the source for that as well

A+B+C+x=D is in the text, and the text provides A, B, C, and D, but you are saying that we can't calculate x because it's not directly mentioned?

you are quite free to calculate that.... and i would agree...

What you did was committ a logical fallacy:

Illicit minor – a categorical syllogism that is invalid because its minor term is not distributed in the minor premise but distributed in the conclusion.

you can't bring Lyanna's time of death in relation to Ned's arrival into your conclusion if it was not part of your premise.

[JonSnow4President]

So, let me get this straight. We've provided, based on text and Martin sources, a time window in which Jon was born. We've provided, based on a text source

Do you mean?

Are you talking about the text and Martin sources I provided to you....

You seem to agree that Lyanna died 3-10 days after childbirth, based on a sickness consistent with her symptoms from the text.

YES I provided sources on the sickness (independentl) as well as the symptoms (text)...

And we know that Ned must have arrived prior to Lyanna's death, because he talked with her, per the text.

YES I provided the source for that as well

A+B+C+x=D is in the text, and the text provides A, B, C, and D, but you are saying that we can't calculate x because it's not directly mentioned?

you are quite free to calculate that.... and i would agree...

What you did was committ a logical fallacy:

Illicit minor – a categorical syllogism that is invalid because its minor term is not distributed in the minor premise but distributed in the conclusion.

you can't bring Lyanna's time of death in relation to Ned's arrival into your conclusion if it was not part of your premise.

How does that fit? I'm not saying all karstarks descended from (old) Starks, and all (current) Starks descended from (old) Starks, so all (current) Starks descended form Karstarks. It's a simple "equation," "mathematically" adding up the evidence we have.

Jon was born sometime in the approximately thirty day period after the sack. Lyanna died an additional 3-10 days later, based on her sickness. Let's call this time period A+B.

Eddard traveled around 4-5 weeks after the sack, arriving at the TOJ and facing the Kingsguard. The time period in question, between Ned's arrival and Lyanna's death, is a variable we don't know, but isn't relevant to the theory.

Ned's travel time might be able to be slightly reduced because he was on horseback with a smaller force. We know, from multiple other examples in the book and common sense, that they can't travel extremely fast for that long a period without killing their horse. We're also calculating Ned's travel time assuming he, the main force of the conquering champion who doesn't trust the Lannisters, only stays in Kings Landing one day. We're assuming an injured Robert arrives immediately the next day after the sack in that calculation. We're assuming it only takes a day to break a seige and deal with all of the fall out. Those are significant (and unlikely) assumptions that help drive down the travel time. Up until Storms End, they're marching (as fast as possible, with an army accustomed to hard marches) on established roads. After the fact, they may be only 7, but there is no mapped road. Their course is likely anything but straight [source, years of outdoor experience]. They're also contending with mountainous terrain. Those slowing factors aren't considered part of the initial calculation, which was done to provide the absolute minimum Eddard could arrive.

So you're hung up on they MAYBE could have subtracted a few days, but based on the factors at play, it is much easier to add time to that estimate.

[stateofdissipation]

If it is theoretical it does not require proof and assumptions are perfectly valid once again taking the argument out of context.

You asked for evidence from valid sources you received them. Wasn't enough, go read your own posts you wanted even more valid sources.

You could not find the information? Why is it everyone else's job to find the information for you. Then when information is given it is not good enough in your opinion. Which means the debate has moved from logic to perception and bias whatever a bias may be.

One person gave you a link to a fever? So what you have received many a link sense then and many a quote. Go look at your request from Ygritte, her quote was not good enough, a simple paraphrased quote from Dany chapter 1 Thrones. One of the first chapters in the first book. You could not find this? You could not find Dany chapter 1? Really? Do you own the books? I took me less then 5 minutes to find the information you were looking for on google doing a basic search and well Dany chapter 1 Thrones seems simple enough.

You seek proof on matters of theory, but as much as you can ask it to be proven, there is also the burden disprove you place on yourself. It goes either way.

It's true some fans except theory as cannon and their is nothing you can do about that. But the site itself considers R+L=J to be theoretical and most discussions on R+L=J are based on that basic knowledge. If you want the definitive answer you are in the wrong place perhaps you can try Martin he has his own site and makes public appearances.

You want information on when Lyanna died in relation to Neds arrival? She died in his arms it's in the book. Don't except that then your debate is with the author.

What further evidence do you want on Jon being born? You understand he was born right? He is in fact a character in the books. What time would you like? It's a large enough window to fit in whatever you want really. You will never get an exact day from the books. At most you will get a moon, crescent, half, full.

Why are you so full in on knowing the exact day when the author already said he pretty much does not do that? And yes you have link to a highly valid source for this. What point are you trying to make about Jon's birth.

As to your last comment in the reply, Tu quoque. My statements are no less valid because you feel I did the same thing. Which I may have but I will never reveal that..

You asked for evidence from valid sources you received them. Wasn't enough, go read your own posts you wanted even more valid sources.

Yes, my own posts are where the sources came from.

NO... you still have not given any... so more would be impossible... unless you are asking me for more...

You could not find the information? Why is it everyone else's job to find the information for you. Then when information is given it is not good enough in your opinion. Which means the debate has moved from logic to perception and bias whatever a bias may be.

I did find it....You did not give any.

Do you mean when I note that you have not actually provided a single source is me stating that the sources you did not provide are not good enough...

One person gave you a link to a fever? So what you have received many a link sense then and many a quote.

I gave the link... the name of the fever was cited...

Go look at your request from Ygritte, her quote was not good enough, a simple paraphrased quote from Dany chapter 1 Thrones. One of the first chapters in the first book. You could not find this? You could not find Dany chapter 1? Really? Do you own the books? I took me less then 5 minutes to find the information you were looking for on google doing a basic search and well Dany chapter 1 Thrones seems simple enough.

If you found it so easily, then why did you not post it?

I accepted the Dany's quote... born 9 moons after her flight from KL--- it was the same as the link I posted earlier...

Nobody disagreed with it... if you did not...

You seek proof on matters of theory, but as much as you can ask it to be proven, there is also the burden disprove you place on yourself. It goes either way.

I asked for the source of your basis... you did not give it.

It's true some fans except theory as cannon and their is nothing you can do about that. But the site itself considers R+L=J to be theoretical and most discussions on R+L=J are based on that basic knowledge. If you want the definitive answer you are in the wrong place perhaps you can try Martin he has his own site and makes public appearances.

I did not ask you to prove a theory... I asked where you started. You refused to answer.

You want information on when Lyanna died in relation to Neds arrival? She died in his arms it's in the book. Don't except that then your debate is with the author.

In the book Lyanna died holding Ned's hand after his arrival at the ToJ.

If you wish use AGOT chapter 39 Eddard to make "after" in to "immediately after"----you can address GRRM...I might mention, though, that Ned's account, which you refer to, was in the context of a dream... and a fever dream at that. Our dreams are not always literal.--GRRM http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Concerning_the_Tower_of_Joy

What further evidence do you want on Jon being born? You understand he was born right? He is in fact a character in the books. What time would you like? It's a large enough window to fit in whatever you want really. You will never get an exact day from the books. At most you will get a moon, crescent, half, full.

I accept that Jon was born and Lyanna died with Ned 3 to 10 days after. I provided sources for those...

Why are you so full in on knowing the exact day when the author already said he pretty much does not do that? And yes you have link to a highly valid source for this. What point are you trying to make about Jon's birth.

I simply asked how you came to the conclusion that you did;

Jon was born 3 to 10 days before Ned arrived at the ToJ

Is that a fair representation of your position?

As to your last comment in the reply, Tu quoque. My statements are no less valid because you feel I did the same thing. Which I may have but I will never reveal that.

I am not attempting to invalidate your feelings...

I have not presented feelings... only questions. and sources.

[Jon Weirgaryen]

Up until Storms End, they're marching (as fast as possible, with an army accustomed to hard marches) on established roads. After the fact, they may be only 7, but there is no mapped road. Their course is likely anything but straight [source, years of outdoor experience]. They're also contending with mountainous terrain. Those slowing factors aren't considered part of the initial calculation, which was done to provide the absolute minimum Eddard could arrive.

So you're hung up on they MAYBE could have subtracted a few days, but based on the factors at play, it is much easier to add time to that estimate.

Actually, I take Ned for bright enough to head from Storm's End to Summerhall, unless he already has news of where Rhaegar was hiding out. He cannot have found the ToJ by accident, so I take it he learned at some time. Ways of finding out might have included talking to the people on both sides of the Siege of Storm's End, maybe Ashara Dayne, and/or the smallfolk around Summerhall.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I would like clarification... do you mean to adjust your initial estimated travel times?

Because if you do that is fine....I followed how you got to your first ones.

No adjustment is necessary, IMO. The timeline now shows Ned staying everywhere (KL, SE) as shortly as possible. It is much more likely that he had stayed at KL for a few days more, for example, to be present at Roberts coronation.

It is also likely Ned stayed at SE for another day, perhaps more, since it is possible he didn't learn about Lyanna's location until after he arrived at SE (had he known about Lyanna's location when leaving KL, he most logically would have travelled to TOJ immediately, and send someone else (his second in command perhaps) to fix the trouble at SE).

Those additional, extra days that Ned might have spend at KL and SE are now not in the calculation.

Ned and six others, all on horses, would have been able to travel faster than an army on foot, under the following conditions:

1) If they travelled the exact same road.

You can imagine that an army marching down the Kingsroad would be able to cover 100 miles faster than 7 men on horses are able to cover 100 miles in rough area, since those 7 men crossing the rough area need to travel at a more slow pace, in order to maneuvre their horses without breaking anything.

2) If they had fresh horses

Seeing as how the Tyrell and Redwyne forces had been at SE for quite some time, doing absolutely nothing combat worthy, it is very possible that Ned and his 6 companions took fresh horses here.

But the road from KL to SE and from SE to TOJ is not the same. Where from KL to SE you travel over the Kingsroad, from SE to TOJ you don't. In addition, form KL to SE you won't have to cross any mountains, which, from SE to TOJ, you do.

Not having a big road to travel on and crossing an area with mountains will slow you down.

The scenario with Ned's faster travel, together with the additional days Ned could have been at KL and/or SE, will amount to the same amount of days in total as the scenario I have provided in my earlier post.

[BearQueen87]

Actually, I take Ned for bright enough to head from Storm's End to Summerhall, unless he already has news of where Rhaegar was hiding out. He cannot have found the ToJ by accident, so I take it he learned at some time. Ways of finding out might have included talking to the people on both sides of the Siege of Storm's End, maybe Ashara Dayne, and/or the smallfolk around Summerhall.

I agree someone (Ashara) told Ned. I also think Ned wasn't long at SE. The War is basically over at this point, everyone is dipping their knees; Stannis is already AT Storm's End, all Ned had to do was convince Tyrell to dip his banners (not hard once you learn that Aerys, Rhaegar, Aegon are all dead and Tywin Lannister is standing beside Robert Baratheon). So I think Ned's time at SE was very short. Once someone tells him where Lyanna is, he sets out immediately.

[stateofdissipation]

How does that fit? I'm not saying all karstarks descended from (old) Starks, and all (current) Starks descended from (old) Starks, so all (current) Starks descended form Karstarks. It's a simple "equation," "mathematically" adding up the evidence we have.

Jon was born sometime in the approximately thirty day period after the sack. Lyanna died an additional 3-10 days later, based on her sickness. Let's call this time period A+B.

Eddard traveled around 4-5 weeks after the sack, arriving at the TOJ and facing the Kingsguard. The time period in question, between Ned's arrival and Lyanna's death, is a variable we don't know, but isn't relevant to the theory.

Ned's travel time might be able to be slightly reduced because he was on horseback with a smaller force. We know, from multiple other examples in the book and common sense, that they can't travel extremely fast for that long a period without killing their horse. We're also calculating Ned's travel time assuming he, the main force of the conquering champion who doesn't trust the Lannisters, only stays in Kings Landing one day. We're assuming an injured Robert arrives immediately the next day after the sack in that calculation. We're assuming it only takes a day to break a seige and deal with all of the fall out. Those are significant (and unlikely) assumptions that help drive down the travel time. Up until Storms End, they're marching (as fast as possible, with an army accustomed to hard marches) on established roads. After the fact, they may be only 7, but there is no mapped road. Their course is likely anything but straight [source, years of outdoor experience]. They're also contending with mountainous terrain. Those slowing factors aren't considered part of the initial calculation, which was done to provide the absolute minimum Eddard could arrive.

So you're hung up on they MAYBE could have subtracted a few days, but based on the factors at play, it is much easier to add time to that estimate.

It's a simple "equation," "mathematically" adding up the evidence we have.

Jon was born sometime in the approximately thirty day period after the sack. Lyanna died an additional 3-10 days later, based on her sickness. Let's call this time period A+B.

Eddard traveled around 4-5 weeks after the sack, arriving at the TOJ and facing the Kingsguard.

---Agreed---

The time period in question, between Ned's arrival and Lyanna's death, is a variable we don't know, but isn't relevant to the theory.

---Agreed---

Ned's travel time might be able to be slightly reduced because he was on horseback with a smaller force. We know, from multiple other examples in the book and common sense, that they can't travel extremely fast for that long a period without killing their horse. We're also calculating Ned's travel time assuming he, the main force of the conquering champion who doesn't trust the Lannisters, only stays in Kings Landing one day. We're assuming an injured Robert arrives immediately the next day after the sack in that calculation. We're assuming it only takes a day to break a seige and deal with all of the fall out. Those are significant (and unlikely) assumptions that help drive down the travel time. Up until Storms End, they're marching (as fast as possible, with an army accustomed to hard marches) on established roads. After the fact, they may be only 7, but there is no mapped road. Their course is likely anything but straight [source, years of outdoor experience]. They're also contending with mountainous terrain. Those slowing factors aren't considered part of the initial calculation, which was done to provide the absolute minimum Eddard could arrive.

I am taking this as an explanation of your 4 to 5 weeks.

---Agreed---

So you're hung up on they MAYBE could have subtracted a few days, but based on the factors at play, it is much easier to add time to that estimate

No. I am not hung up... I agree completely...with all that you asserted

[JonSnow4President]

2) If they had fresh horses

Seeing as how the Tyrell and Redwyne forces had been at SE for quite some time, doing absolutely nothing combat worthy, it is very possible that Ned and his 6 companions took fresh horses here.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think they do. Ned's memory Lord Dustin on his great red stallion. I don't have the other books with me at the moment, but I believe I specifically recall Lady Dustin referring to him riding from the North on his large red stallion. Even then, fresh horses only last for a short time before they're not fresh, so it can't shorten the travel time that significantly unless they're rotating horses throughout the trip (which I suppose is possible).

[PrettyPig]

7: With an army marching from KL to the Trident, meeting another army in battle, and that other army marching back from the Trident to KL in 13 days, they will have been marching for an average of 6,5 days each. The Battle of the Trident took thus place in the middle of that fortnight, on day 8. So day 8 is when Rhaegar died.

16: Eddard leaves King's Landing in anger. Since we've seen that the distance between KL and the Trident can be marched by an army twice in a fortnight, we might conclude that it can be marched once in 7 days time. With the distance between KL and the Trident, and KL and SE being about the same, the traveltime will have been the same. So starting day 16, Eddard and army travel for 7 days to SE to lift the Siege.

23: Eddard Stark leaves SE to travel to TOJ. The distance between SE and TOJ seems to be between twice the distance, and 1,5 times the distance of KL to Trident. If KL to Trident takes 7 days, 1,5 to 2 times that distance will take 1,5 to 2 times as much times: 10.5 to 14 days.

And thus Ned arrives at TOJ either day 33 or day 36.

Can I ask where you got your distance calculations from KL to Trident?

In AGOT, Ned & his household arrives in KL after a journey of a fortnight from House Darry, where he and Robert's caravan had holed up to look for Arya after the wolf incident with Joffrey. House Darry is, per text, a half-day's ride south of the Trident. From this, it is concluded in Concordance that the travel time between Trident and KL is ~two weeks, at least for a king's caravan...more for an army? less?

Not totally pertinent for this conversation, really, but I am crunching numbers for other semi-related reasons.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Actually, I take Ned for bright enough to head from Storm's End to Summerhall, unless he already has news of where Rhaegar was hiding out. He cannot have found the ToJ by accident, so I take it he learned at some time. Ways of finding out might have included talking to the people on both sides of the Siege of Storm's End, maybe Ashara Dayne, and/or the smallfolk around Summerhall.

If he learned from anyone living around Summerhal, he would have learned elsewhere to search around Summerhal..

Or, perhaps he had heard how Rhaegar liked to go to Summerhal at times..

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think they do. Ned's memory Lord Dustin on his great red stallion. I don't have the other books with me at the moment, but I believe I specifically recall Lady Dustin referring to him riding from the North on his large red stallion. Even then, fresh horses only last for a short time before they're not fresh, so it can't shorten the travel time that significantly unless they're rotating horses throughout the trip (which I suppose is possible).

Yeah, Lord Dustins horse was indeed returned. You are right in that.

Perhaps the few days at KL were enough for the horses to get rested..?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Can I ask where you got your distance calculations from KL to Trident?

In AGOT, Ned & his household arrives in KL after a journey of a fortnight from House Darry, where he and Robert's caravan had holed up to look for Arya after the wolf incident with Joffrey. House Darry is, per text, a half-day's ride south of the Trident. From this, it is concluded in Concordance that the travel time between Trident and KL is ~two weeks, at least for a king's caravan...more for an army? less?

Not totally pertinent for this conversation, really, but I am crunching numbers for other semi-related reasons.

Robert and court (with wheelhouse, which stalls) take 14 days to travel from the Trident to KL, according to GRRMs writing, an army (in great haste, remember) can cover the distance in an hour.

I looked at the map of Westeros from the Lands of Ice and Fire, but there are also calculated distances you can find here. There are many more distances calculated in that document as well, in case you need those as well ;)

[PrettyPig]

Excellent, thanks!