Jump to content

R+L=J v. 88


Stubby

Recommended Posts

Can I ask where you got your distance calculations from KL to Trident?

A very simple calculation: The morning Rossart becomes Hand of the King, Rhaegar leaves KL for the Trident to fight his last battle. The day Ned arrives in KL from the very same battle is the day Rossart dies. Rossart served for a fourtnight, so armed forces move the distance in about a week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, Lord Dustins horse was indeed returned. You are right in that.

Perhaps the few days at KL were enough for the horses to get rested..?

From what I can recall, the red stallion was a prized beast, not just a normal horse. It's possible that the red stallion did not require as many stops/changes as another horse?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh, good catch. I had forgotten Rossart's term of office was known, and it falls completely within that period of time; Rossart can't be Hand till Chelsted isn't anymore, and Rossart dies at Jaime's hand right before the city is Sacked. So the space between ruby ford and Sack can't be any less than two weeks, and might be more.

I want to point out Chelsted is burned two weeks before the sack, that night Jonothor Darry was talking with Jaime. Jonothor Darry died at the Trident, with Rhaegar and Prince Lewyn. There is two weeks from conception to sack. Rhaella and Viserys flee after news of the Trident, which must be (time for travel to, and time for travel from) approximately one week before the sack. The flight could be as little as a day before the sack, but certainly not more than a week before the sack. The Trident requires travel time and GRRM cutting it to a two week round trip (Rhaegar and Jonothor leaving after Chelsted’s burning and Ned bringing his army to see Jaime still covered in Aerys’ blood) is pretty miraculous travelling. Rhaegar died about one week before the sack. Q E D

Jon must be born 5 to 10 days before Ned arrives. Lyanna dies of puerperal fever with an onset of 3-5 days after childbirth; mortality is 5-10 (GRRM has set a precedent of 3) days, which could be shorter with earlier medical care. I cannot see any way for GRRM to have Ned travel to Storm’s End and then to the tower in less than two weeks. (GRRM can be tricksy, but a month is more realistic.) Jon was born after the sack. Q E D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I used to take that for granted. Did not everybody know... or maybe that was not too obvious... Barristan might have told him, but that's a stretch.

I don't think that everyone knew. But some people will have known. So though there might not have been anyone at SE or KL who could tell Ned with certainty where Rhaegar had been during the biggest part of the war, perhaps there was someone at SE or KL who told Ned about Rhaegar and Summerhal.

If Rhaegar had stayed there while going south, no matter how shortly, that could provide a trail for Ned to follow.

From what I can recall, the red stallion was a prized beast, not just a normal horse. It's possible that the red stallion did not require as many stops/changes as another horse?

All possible, I guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No adjustment is necessary, IMO. The timeline now shows Ned staying everywhere (KL, SE) as shortly as possible. It is much more likely that he had stayed at KL for a few days more, for example, to be present at Roberts coronation.

It is also likely Ned stayed at SE for another day, perhaps more, since it is possible he didn't learn about Lyanna's location until after he arrived at SE (had he known about Lyanna's location when leaving KL, he most logically would have travelled to TOJ immediately, and send someone else (his second in command perhaps) to fix the trouble at SE).

Those additional, extra days that Ned might have spend at KL and SE are now not in the calculation.

Ned and six others, all on horses, would have been able to travel faster than an army on foot, under the following conditions:

1) If they travelled the exact same road.

You can imagine that an army marching down the Kingsroad would be able to cover 100 miles faster than 7 men on horses are able to cover 100 miles in rough area, since those 7 men crossing the rough area need to travel at a more slow pace, in order to maneuvre their horses without breaking anything.

2) If they had fresh horses

Seeing as how the Tyrell and Redwyne forces had been at SE for quite some time, doing absolutely nothing combat worthy, it is very possible that Ned and his 6 companions took fresh horses here.

But the road from KL to SE and from SE to TOJ is not the same. Where from KL to SE you travel over the Kingsroad, from SE to TOJ you don't. In addition, form KL to SE you won't have to cross any mountains, which, from SE to TOJ, you do.

Not having a big road to travel on and crossing an area with mountains will slow you down.

The scenario with Ned's faster travel, together with the additional days Ned could have been at KL and/or SE, will amount to the same amount of days in total as the scenario I have provided in my earlier post.

No adjustment is necessary, IMO. The timeline now shows Ned staying everywhere (KL, SE) as shortly as possible. It is much more likely that he had stayed at KL for a few days more, for example, to be present at Roberts coronation.

It is also likely Ned stayed at SE for another day, perhaps more, since it is possible he didn't learn about Lyanna's location until after he arrived at SE (had he known about Lyanna's location when leaving KL, he most logically would have travelled to TOJ immediately, and send someone else (his second in command perhaps) to fix the trouble at SE).

all of these were available in your original calculation....

If you wish now to adjust your original estimate then do so...If no adjustment is necessary then do not adjust it.

Those additional, extra days that Ned might have spend at KL and SE are now not in the calculation.

Ok so we chose to leave the calculation unadjusted.

Ned and six others, all on horses, would have been able to travel faster than an army on foot, under the following conditions:

1) If they travelled the exact same road.

You can imagine that an army marching down the Kingsroad would be able to cover 100 miles faster than 7 men on horses are able to cover 100 miles in rough area, since those 7 men crossing the rough area need to travel at a more slow pace, in order to maneuvre their horses without breaking anything.

2) If they had fresh horses

Seeing as how the Tyrell and Redwyne forces had been at SE for quite some time, doing absolutely nothing combat worthy, it is very possible that Ned and his 6 companions took fresh horses here.

Ok, the terrain was part of the original calculation. So that is the same. If the horses were taken at marching pace from KL to SE--- as in the original calculation, they are fresh.

But the road from KL to SE and from SE to TOJ is not the same. Where from KL to SE you travel over the Kingsroad, from SE to TOJ you don't. In addition, form KL to SE you won't have to cross any mountains, which, from SE to TOJ, you do.

It is the same path you specified in your original calculation. We already established that we were not adjusting it.

Not having a big road to travel on and crossing an area with mountains will slow you down.

agreed--mounted or on foot... but mounted is still faster than on foot...

The scenario with Ned's faster travel, together with the additional days Ned could have been at KL and/or SE, will amount to the same amount of days in total as the scenario I have provided in my earlier post.

You said we were keeping the original calculation. Is there a reason to add the extra days now when there was not before?

You stand by your calculation-- and your inclusion that 7 men on horseback travel faster than an army marching-- or you wish to change it.

If you wish to change it why?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I used to take that for granted. Did not everybody know... or maybe that was not too obvious... Barristan might have told him, but that's a stretch.

I don't think it was well known. Barristan says

"It was said that no man ever knew Prince Rhaegar, truly."

He seems to have been a very private and melancholy sort of chap.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I want to point out Chelsted is burned two weeks before the sack, that night Jonothor Darry was talking with Jaime. Jonothor Darry died at the Trident, with Rhaegar and Prince Lewyn. There is two weeks from conception to sack. Rhaella and Viserys flee after news of the Trident, which must be (time for travel to, and time for travel from) approximately one week before the sack. The flight could be as little as a day before the sack, but certainly not more than a week before the sack. The Trident requires travel time and GRRM cutting it to a two week round trip (Rhaegar and Jonothor leaving after Chelsted’s burning and Ned bringing his army to see Jaime still covered in Aerys’ blood) is pretty miraculous travelling. Rhaegar died about one week before the sack. Q E D

Jon must be born 5 to 10 days before Ned arrives. Lyanna dies of puerperal fever with an onset of 3-5 days after childbirth; mortality is 5-10 (GRRM has set a precedent of 3) days, which could be shorter with earlier medical care. I cannot see any way for GRRM to have Ned travel to Storm’s End and then to the tower in less than two weeks. (GRRM can be tricksy, but a month is more realistic.) Jon was born after the sack. Q E D

I am reluctant to launch back into this strange discussion, but isn't the question whether Jon was born after the showdown, not before the sack. I thought everyone agreed that he was born after the sack, but some might have suggested it was possible Jon was born after the showdown at ToJ. So the question seems to be, I think, whether we can "prove" that Jon was born before Ned arrived at ToJ.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am reluctant to launch back into this strange discussion, but isn't the question whether Jon was born after the showdown, not before the sack. I thought everyone agreed that he was born after the sack, but some might have suggested it was possible Jon was born after the showdown at ToJ. So the question seems to be, I think, whether we can "prove" that Jon was born before Ned arrived at ToJ.

That one is constrained by the SSM given before, i.e. Dany was born 8-9 months after Jon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just for fun, I took the name dates utilized in the very awesome ASOIAF timeline here:


http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/forum/20-general-asoiaf/


And plugged them into a reverse due date calendar on a baby pregnancy site. Here's how things pan out; you guys will enjoy this for the sake of controversy.



*Disclaimer - even though the Roman calendar does not exist on Planetos, I am assuming, like the creators of the timeline, based on GRRM prior statements that one year = 12 moons and a pregnancy is a normal 40 weeks gestation. This also assumes that Robb and Jon are indeed the same age, although there are some discrepancies in text with that too.



Per Cat, Ned is gone ~1 year for Robert's Rebellion.


Ned marries Cat and conceives Robb prior to leaving.


Robb's name day is 7/31/283. Reverse due date calc has his estimated conception occurring during the first week of November 282.


Ned then probably leaves for war in late Nov or Dec 282.



Jon's name day is 8/24/283. Reverse calc has his conception around the last days of Nov/1st days of Dec 282. Coincidentally this would be around the same time as Ned's departure. Lyanna also has been gone a month? +/- by this time.



Dany's name day is 5/25/284. Her conception is placed during the last days of August/1st days of Sept 283. Coincidentally, this is right around Jon's name day.



If Dany was conceived the night of Chelsted's burning, Rhaegar and Co leave for the Trident at the end of August. If the time between the departure for theTrident and the Sack is 2 weeks, the Sack occurs ~mid-Sept 283 and Jon is already two weeks old and was born right aroud the time his proud papa was already in KL and marching to his 'destiny'.



If Jon is already 2 weeks old at the time of the Sack, then he would be over a month old by the time Ned arrives at ToJ, probably sometime in late Sept/early Oct 283. GRRM has said that the journey from Dorne to WF would be a long one, taking several months, so Neddard would really have to hoof it on poor old Lord Dustin's horse from Starfall in order to get back to Cat ~ 1 year from his departure, but if he travelled late Oct to late Dec/Jan or so, it would fit.




THAT might fit, but everything else in between kindof goes all to hell. :uhoh:




Anyway, my point wasn't to "prove" any theory one way or another, but to show that "doing the math" leads to two conclusions:


1) GRRM is operating REALLY wild and loose with timelines and they can't be trusted at face value,


or


2) Somebody is fudging somebody else's backstory.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To complicate matters even more, I checked the Wiki, which has Ned and Cat marrying/conceiving Robb after the Battle of Bells, several months into RR. That makes the timeline even WORSE since Robb is supposedly older than Jon - but this is not physically possible if 1) Robb were conceived after Jon, and 2) RR only lasted about a year.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

We can't say exactly when the pyromancers started to make the "fruits" for Aerys. But it seems unlikely them managed to produce so many within onnly a few days.. So most logically, Rhaegar's death won't have triggered the plan to go into motion. At the very least, Rhaegar's death led to Aerys ordering the "fruits" placed in their secret locations, because the time of using them was nearing.

Actually it was the wildfire plot that Chelsted objected to. He pleaded, and begged for Aerys to abandon the plot, and when he refused, threw his Hand badge on the floor, whereupon Aerys arrested and burned him, appointing Rossart in his stead..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ned then probably leaves for war in late Nov or Dec 282.

Jon's name day is 8/24/283. Reverse calc has his conception around the last days of Nov/1st days of Dec 282. Coincidentally this would be around the same time as Ned's departure. Lyanna also has been gone a month? +/- by this time.

It is more like 6-7 months after Lyanna has disappeared:

(Week numbers)

00 Lyanna disappears. (Where from? The train of guests from the North to Riverrun?)

01 Word of her disappearing reaches Brandon Stark. He makes for King's Landing on his own.

03 Brandon reaches KL and is incarcerated Rickard Stark is summonned.

05 Rickard Stark and a host of Northerners arrive in KL and most of them get roasted.

06 Aerys' message asking for Ned's and Robert's head to reach the Eyrie

07 Robellion to start. Robert travels South, Ned travels North.

09 Stormlords march on Summerhall, Eddard fathers Jon Snow, says Lord Godric Borrell

13 Battles at Summerhall

16 Robert goes hunting at Storm's End with his prisoners from Summerhall, they become his friends. (SE<->Summerhall is 21 days travel time.)

21 Robert lays siege to Ashford Castle for a moment

22 Randyll Tarly relieves the siege at Ashford Castle and Robert is fleeing, possibly with Jon Connington possibly on his heels.

27 Storm's End is under siege six weeks later, that's the time Tyrell needs to cover the distance after having fathered Margaery...

28 Battle of the Bells at Stoney Sept, Robert wounded

30 Catelyn weds Ned, Lysa weds Jon at RR.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is more like 6-7 months after Lyanna has disappeared:

(Week numbers)

00 Lyanna disappears. (Where from? The train of guests from the North to Riverrun?)

01 Word of her disappearing reaches Brandon Stark. He makes for King's Landing on his own.

03 Brandon reaches KL and is incarcerated Rickard Stark is summonned.

05 Rickard Stark and a host of Northerners arrive in KL and most of them get roasted.

Brandon and Rickard Stark die at the same time. Brandon--strangled; Rickard--roasted in armor

ETA: Never mind!! I just re-read what you wrote. I saw "incarcerated" as "incinerated" Carry on

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6-7 months definitely makes more sense. See what I mean though, about wonkiness with the timeline? Unless GRRM is going to throw in a wormhole or a wrinkle in the time/space continuum, I'm not seeing how all of these people could travel all of these places and have all of these babies within the timeframe of events given.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just for fun, I took the name dates utilized in the very awesome ASOIAF timeline here:

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/forum/20-general-asoiaf/

And plugged them into a reverse due date calendar on a baby pregnancy site. Here's how things pan out; you guys will enjoy this for the sake of controversy.

*Disclaimer - even though the Roman calendar does not exist on Planetos, I am assuming, like the creators of the timeline, based on GRRM prior statements that one year = 12 moons and a pregnancy is a normal 40 weeks gestation. This also assumes that Robb and Jon are indeed the same age, although there are some discrepancies in text with that too.

The link you've provided links me to the main General Subforum page

Did you mean this timeline?

Actually it was the wildfire plot that Chelsted objected to. He pleaded, and begged for Aerys to abandon the plot, and when he refused, threw his Hand badge on the floor, whereupon Aerys arrested and burned him, appointing Rossart in his stead..

Ah yes. So the plot definitly existed before Rhaegar left.

That leaves the question whether or not Rhaegar knew about it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Didn't Cat's visit to Renly include a similar necessity for teleportation? I remember something like that.

I am now picturing "beaming up and down" to Renly.

But yes. It's just one chapter isn't it? She is with Robb and then she's with Renly at his camp.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just for fun, I took the name dates utilized in the very awesome ASOIAF timeline here:

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/forum/20-general-asoiaf/

And plugged them into a reverse due date calendar on a baby pregnancy site. Here's how things pan out; you guys will enjoy this for the sake of controversy.

*Disclaimer - even though the Roman calendar does not exist on Planetos, I am assuming, like the creators of the timeline, based on GRRM prior statements that one year = 12 moons and a pregnancy is a normal 40 weeks gestation. This also assumes that Robb and Jon are indeed the same age, although there are some discrepancies in text with that too.

Per Cat, Ned is gone ~1 year for Robert's Rebellion.

Ned marries Cat and conceives Robb prior to leaving.

Robb's name day is 7/31/283. Reverse due date calc has his estimated conception occurring during the first week of November 282.

Ned then probably leaves for war in late Nov or Dec 282.

Jon's name day is 8/24/283. Reverse calc has his conception around the last days of Nov/1st days of Dec 282. Coincidentally this would be around the same time as Ned's departure. Lyanna also has been gone a month? +/- by this time.

Dany's name day is 5/25/284. Her conception is placed during the last days of August/1st days of Sept 283. Coincidentally, this is right around Jon's name day.

If Dany was conceived the night of Chelsted's burning, Rhaegar and Co leave for the Trident at the end of August. If the time between the departure for theTrident and the Sack is 2 weeks, the Sack occurs ~mid-Sept 283 and Jon is already two weeks old and was born right aroud the time his proud papa was already in KL and marching to his 'destiny'.

If Jon is already 2 weeks old at the time of the Sack, then he would be over a month old by the time Ned arrives at ToJ, probably sometime in late Sept/early Oct 283. GRRM has said that the journey from Dorne to WF would be a long one, taking several months, so Neddard would really have to hoof it on poor old Lord Dustin's horse from Starfall in order to get back to Cat ~ 1 year from his departure, but if he travelled late Oct to late Dec/Jan or so, it would fit.

THAT might fit, but everything else in between kindof goes all to hell. :uhoh:

Anyway, my point wasn't to "prove" any theory one way or another, but to show that "doing the math" leads to two conclusions:

1) GRRM is operating REALLY wild and loose with timelines and they can't be trusted at face value,

or

2) Somebody is fudging somebody else's backstory.

The lunar year is 13 months long 28 X 13-- 364 days--

Ths lunar year with 12 months is only 336 days

a pregnancy lasts 40 weeks or 10 moons

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am reluctant to launch back into this strange discussion, but isn't the question whether Jon was born after the showdown, not before the sack. I thought everyone agreed that he was born after the sack, but some might have suggested it was possible Jon was born after the showdown at ToJ. So the question seems to be, I think, whether we can "prove" that Jon was born before Ned arrived at ToJ.

Putting blinders on . . . Lyanna dies of a fever (Puerperal) after asking Ned to promise. Howland and someone else find Ned holding her hand, after she has died. Jon was born not more than ten days before Ned arrived, and not less than three days before.

ETA: And in my signature: "From the App: "At the war's end, Lyanna Stark was found dying by her brother Eddard, and by Howland Reed, in the red mountains of Dorne , at the place Rhaegar called the tower of joy.""

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...