Conversation with a Dying Man, Vol 2: Dance for me, Spider.

[Ser Creighton]

IF those admissions were for the benefit of someone other than Kevan *(and it was meant as a threat), this other person would not have been a player in the game of thrones. Varys has just admitted to manipulating/attempting to manipulate some of the main players allegiances. He's not going to undermine his own agenda by letting an enemy in on his plans.

This new High Sparrow doesn't seem like the type to spy on the regent to the king, but with the new faith militant spreading like wildfire, the smallfolk have an army of their own. I don't think Varys gives a rats-ass about the smallfolk, but the allegiance of an army that that is everywhere would be a good reason to proclaim love for the little guy in hearing of an agent of the HS. However, this agent would also be witness to murder, and I just don't think that would fly.

But the new High Sparrow is not above torture, taking prisoners, and he did get what he wanted from Cersei the right to build the army of the faith again. The story he tells of Aegon and the fisherfolk and being instructed in the faith since he was little plays into the Sparrows preferences. The book Pycelle died on very well can be the book that reveals the black before the gold, which the High Sparrow is going to find very interesting. You know all that talk of fishing and working with his hands, cleaning his own clothes, mending nets, the king must put his people first, duty.

Though the part where he speaks of how Kevan was binding the faith to his little King seems counter productive of the High Sparrow is there because it sort of reveals his personal agenda.

“but you were threatening to undo all the queen’s good work, to reconcile Highgarden and Casterly Rock, bind the Faith to your little king, unite the Seven Kingdoms under Tommen’s rule. So …”

It basically is like saying I am causing all this trouble so the faith will drop you guys and side with us. Not really going to help his cause if the High Sparrow is there. Because then it becomes this whole question of much have you manipulated this. Though if you include a possibility with the book, then Varys is laying all his cards on the table but does have what could be perceived as a legitimate reason to take them down. He could then look at the high Sparrow and be like see you almost fell for it.

Moments like this

“I am sorry.” Varys wrung his hands. “You are suffering, I know, yet here I stand going on like some silly old woman. Time to make an end to it.” The eunuch pursed his lips and gave a little whistle.”

The use of wrung with the mention of daggers right after has me just sort going Varys is twisting the knife here. Oh and that whole look at me babbling on stuff, that's just mocking the man. Dude put a crossbow bolt through his chest. Oh goodness I forgot I just shot you 30 seconds ago and beat the other man to death with a hammer. Heavens to Betsy, eeek blood. It's a dark seen and Varys is being cruel. I would not rule out someone else being there, mostly because Martin sort of pointing out the book Pycelle is laying dead in. That could be how his confession ended. Varys needs help for Aegon and the High Sparrow would be a good way to get it.

I don't think he thinks Kevan is a good man, I think he hates the Lannisters very much and he is enjoying killing him. Though he may be saying it for the benefit of another to try and come off better.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

An awesome idea :bowdown:

"A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd." Who is it that controls the crowds now? The Faith. With the Faith on fAegon's side, he will have the smallfolk.

Just bumping this idea up again because it makes so much sense. We parse the mummer's dragon vision and look at the mummer's dragon itself as a fraud, when there's more going on in that tableau than just the cloth dragon. The smallfolk are, as Bumps noted (this may have gotten scrubbed) a pretty large untapped resource of manpower and support that Varys might have an interest in. If he engineered the King's Landing riot, he might already be exploiting that demographic. And who else are they going to support? Robb's dead, Renly's dead, Stannis is up north in the blizzard, the Lannisters don't give a shit and Dany's poised to loose a bunch of ironborn and Dothraki on them. Aegon is the logical choice.

There's also the anecdote in tPatQ where a mob of angry smallfolk storm the dragon pit and kill the remaining dragons; not just the small ones and hatchlings, but even Dreamfyre and Syrax. This might be a veiled clue or suggestion that the power of a substantial-enough number of anonymous smallfolk can stand up against dragons.

[Ser Creighton]

You know just a couple of things and it's off topic sorry Doc. tPatQ and tRP seem to be books written from the perspective of a character in the books. So it's like we are reading a book from within the books with all it's bias and mistakes just like the regular series contain that.

The Mob killing dragons could also be symbolic of people if you invert the symbolism which the author does on occasion. I think it is possible for a mob to swarm a downed or chained dragon. But mounted dragons, with Troops like the Dothraki and Unsullied around are going to make it much more difficult. JonCon' inllness may come into play, the small folk may be getting nailed and not because of anything they did wrong. Just it's not uncommon for a noble to cause them problems.

Don't count on the Iron Born for Dany. Vic and Euron are both trying to take her dragons, Euron and his blue lips are not going to thrill her she knows what shade of the evening is and who makes it. The symbolism in the books generally has the Dragons and Krakens opposing each other. Remember why she is called Stormborn, that Storm destroyed a fleet, I can't say it's a great sign for the Iron Born but it could be another fleet as well. It's just they do not appear to be setting themselves up all that well as allies. Attempting to steal Dragons, Warlocks, their own form of slavery and then the imagery and symbolism. It does not appear like it will be a good relationship. Besides I am pretty sure the Iron Born have already and been planning on launching their own attacks against the main land. They attacked the North, they attacked the shield, they have been trying to get to Old Town, and they are planning another offensive. That's on them.

[James Arryn]

One problem with the idea of this being tailored for an audience is that the tailoring fits with the reality we get to see through the magic of another 3rd person POV.

[butterbumps!]

One problem with the idea of this being tailored for an audience is that the tailoring fits with the reality we get to see through the magic of another 3rd person POV.

Can you explain what you mean? Because the tailoring pretty explicitly doesn't mesh with the audience's being Kevan, the birds or us.

[James Arryn]

Can you explain what you mean? Because the tailoring pretty explicitly doesn't mesh with the audience's being Kevan, the birds or us.

It meshes with what truth we know, so that might suggest it's not tailoring. Or, if tailoring, then the suit was measured over a decade before it was cut.

How does it not fit with Kevan, if true? 'Here you die, and all your works and those of your family will die thus'. Reminds me of Magua to Munro speech. It might suggest a deep hatred of the Lannisters, which again jives with an alternate interpretation of Varys' agenda.

[butterbumps!]

It meshes with what truth we know, so that might suggest it's not tailoring. Or, if tailoring, then the suit was measured over a decade before it was cut.

How does it not fit with Kevan, if true? 'Here you die, and all your works and those of your family will die thus'. Reminds me of Magua to Munro speech. It might suggest a deep hatred of the Lannisters, which again jives with an alternate interpretation of Varys' agenda.

As "information for the reader" this passage is utterly useless. There is nothing that Varys says here that we do not already know. So chalking this up to exposition doesn't work, because nothing's being advanced. Varys could have simply come out of the shadow, killed Kevan, no talking needed, and there would be nothing lost info-wise from this passage. It is redundant and unnecessary as exposition.

And DP and I mentioned quite a few times why it doesn't mesh with reading Kevan as the audience:

1. If the primary purpose is about a "fuck you" to Kevan, then you'd think he'd wax poetic about his brilliance in outsmarting Tywin, pulling off a baby-swap right from under Tywin's nose, and spiting House Lannister by emphasizing that they failed to erase the Targ line.

2. Instead, Varys waxes poetic about how enlightened a monarch Aegon was trained to be. What the hell does Kevan care about whether Aegon was trained by a Septa or never grew accustomed to being waiting on by servants, or having empathy with smallfolk? This entire last paragraph of their discussion is not remotely something that Kevan would care about.

[James Arryn]

As "information for the reader" this passage is utterly useless. There is nothing that Varys says here that we do not already know. So chalking this up to exposition doesn't work, because nothing's being advanced. Varys could have simply come out of the shadow, killed Kevan, no talking needed, and there would be nothing lost info-wise from this passage. It is redundant and unnecessary as exposition.

And DP and I mentioned quite a few times why it doesn't mesh with reading Kevan as the audience:

1. If the primary purpose is about a "fuck you" to Kevan, then you'd think he'd wax poetic about his brilliance in outsmarting Tywin, pulling off a baby-swap right from under Tywin's nose, and spiting House Lannister by emphasizing that they failed to erase the Targ line.

2. Instead, Varys waxes poetic about how enlightened a monarch Aegon was trained to be. What the hell does Kevan care about whether Aegon was trained by a Septa or never grew accustomed to being waiting on by servants, or having empathy with smallfolk? This entire last paragraph of their discussion is not remotely something that Kevan would care about.

If you think about it, he waxes poetic about everything un-Lannister. The exact opposite of what the Lannisters represent.

As for exposition, I disagree. It's context, and it significantly advances our understanding of the whos, whats, wheres, hows and whys of the Aegon plot. Most of what is 'understood' is only understood by those,of us who parse every line.

My gf is a big fan of the books but not discussion thereof, and I am often amazed at how much more we 'know' because of sifting than a casual reader ever connects. She's a graduate student and certainly nobody's fool, but we have both gotten used to her blank-and-somewhat-concerned expression in response to my how-did-you-not-know-that-it's-in-the-text! expression when expositing some theory or observation. I suspect she's more the kind of readership GRRM has in mind when he writes, as he has often expressed amusement and disbelief at our degree of tunnelling into the text/theorizing.

So I don't think all of Varys' information was as redundant as you're suggesting, and certainly not in context.

Also, as has been observed before, GRRM unveils in increasing degrees of clarity.

[Dr. Pepper]

IF those admissions were for the benefit of someone other than Kevan *(and it was meant as a threat), this other person would not have been a player in the game of thrones. Varys has just admitted to manipulating/attempting to manipulate some of the main players allegiances. He's not going to undermine his own agenda by letting an enemy in on his plans.

This new High Sparrow doesn't seem like the type to spy on the regent to the king, but with the new faith militant spreading like wildfire, the smallfolk have an army of their own. I don't think Varys gives a rats-ass about the smallfolk, but the allegiance of an army that that is everywhere would be a good reason to proclaim love for the little guy in hearing of an agent of the HS. However, this agent would also be witness to murder, and I just don't think that would fly.

Varys no longer has need to protect himself from suspicion since he's no longer in an official position of power. If Varys were still on the council, I agree that it would be odd that he'd out himself like this. But he's no and hasn't been in the public eye since he helped Tyrion.

Witnessing the assassinations and noting that anyone can be assassinated no matter how many armed guards are around is what bumps and I are describing as part of the warning and threat. Varys has already displayed his ability to disappear. The reader has seen him become nearly unrecognizable, several characters have witnessed the same thing, and he served as Rugen for years without anyone realizing. Varys' ability to camouflage and hide himself is why he wouldn't really be concerned that someone witnessed him shooting Kevan, especially since he's already technically in a shit ton of trouble.

I think we should also question how this listener ended up in Pycelle's chambers. Did Varys bring him or was the audience already meeting with Pycelle when it happened? I don't think the High Sparrow or his representative was spying on anyone, but had come to to the Red Keep for a specific purpose. Maybe to speak with Pycelle, maybe at the invitation of Varys. The HS would have cause to be there since there are two major trials about to take place.

[Dr. Pepper]

If you think about it, he waxes poetic about everything un-Lannister. The exact opposite of what the Lannisters represent.

As for exposition, I disagree. It's context, and it significantly advances our understanding of the whos, whats, wheres, hows and whys of the Aegon plot. Most of what is 'understood' is only understood by those,of us who parse every line.

Not really. Everything said about Aegon is stuff the reader already knows, without parsing through every line and all the spaces between the lines. It's very explicitly spelled out for us in Tyrion and Jon Con's chapters. There is no new information being offered here about Aegon.

[butterbumps!]

If you think about it, he waxes poetic about everything un-Lannister. The exact opposite of what the Lannisters represent.

As for exposition, I disagree. It's context, and it significantly advances our understanding of the whos, whats, wheres, hows and whys of the Aegon plot. Most of what is 'understood' is only understood by those,of us who parse every line.

My gf is a big fan of the books but not discussion thereof, and I am often amazed at how much more we 'know' because of sifting than a casual reader ever connects. She's a graduate student and certainly nobody's fool, but we have both gotten used to her blank-and-somewhat-concerned expression in response to my how-did-you-not-know-that-it's-in-the-text! expression when expositing some theory or observation. I suspect she's more the kind of readership GRRM has in mind when he writes, as he has often expressed amusement and disbelief at our degree of tunnelling into the text/theorizing.

So I don't think all of Varys' information was as redundant as you're suggesting, and certainly not in context.

Also, as has been observed before, GRRM unveils in increasing degrees of clarity.

Just so I understand-- is your position that Varys' speech works entirely as both exposition and as a spiteful rant to Kevan? And by extension, that there's no one else there?

If so, honestly, no. I already wrote out a rough outline of where we learn everything Varys reiterates upthread, but basically, in terms of us as readers, even the most casual ones, these last 2 pages are pointless if looked at as exposition. Look through the passage again. We know all of the pieces Varys talks about from every Tyrion and Jon Con chapter of DwD, as well as the parts about Tyrell, Dornish and Lannister tensions in all of Cersei's chapters in addition to a summary of this at the beginning of the epilogue itself. Anyone who thought about it would be able to deduce why Varys kills Kevan even if Varys said nothing here. Especially because LF talks about the virtues of keeping Cersei in charge, and we know this will cause a power vacuum. Seriously, we can deduce why Varys would kill Kevan as early as Tyrion II or III DwD (power vacuum for a candidate) and by the time we see the poleboat, we know what's going on.

So no, this is not some Greek Chorus/ exposition thing slapped on at the end. Martin doesn't break the 4th wall with his confessions; notably, there's always someone listening who can use this information later. And seriously, there is absolutely nothing that Varys says that we do not already know.

Additionally, no, again, this does not work with Kevan's being the main audience in-story. If Varys is keeping Kevan alive exclusively to spite him, then rub it in Kevan's face how clever you are about trolling Tywin during the sack and speak to that aspect of this. Really look at what Varys is talking about in that last paragraph. It's not anti-Lannister as much as it's anti nobility.

There is a bit of spite there-- it's an asshole move to shoot someone in the chest with a bolt, letting them freeze while you explain why you're killing them in order to destroy their House. The methods of killing are also a nod to the Sack-- Varys brains Pycelle with a blunt object like Aegon, then shoots Kevan to neutralize him, and then has the birds finish him off with daggers when his confession is done like Rhaenys. But this doesn't stand as being the sole, or even prime audience for Varys; Varys isn't appealing to the things that would deeply wound Kevan the way he would be if that was the prime objective.

[averde]

I always thought that this was Martin's way of subverting expectations - instead of a villian explaining all of his secret plans to the hero before killing him ( or rather failing to do so ), we have a villain kill the hero first and then blabber about the secret evil plans all you like. That works.

I find the notion that there was someone else in the room not believable in the least. There were only 'little birds' in the room, who are already fully controlled by Varys anyway.

I have to agree with this. To me it was Martin taking another classic fantasy trope and turning it inside out. In an "in world" analysis I believe Varys was only talking to Kevan, it'd be kind of silly to have someone in the room hearing all your plans and watching you kill people just so you can give a speech that could be said anywhere. As for why Varys did it, I think he legitimately respected Kevan a bit and wanted to give what to himself was a valid reason to kill Kevan, and show off his grand plan that he's spent so much of his life on. A bit of gloating.

[The Mother of The Others]

This may not have been brought up yet!

What if Varys just didn't feel like saying, "Aegon---who is fake, don't you know!---is so going to kick Westeros' butt!" What if that just didn't ring the right way in Varys' ears, so he's choosing not to emphasize the "fake" part to everyone each time he introduces Aegon to folks.

As another example, I recently bought a new pair of shorts from Kohls. And I got them for only $2. $2 shorts! Notice how I talked up the detail I was proudest of? You didn't hear me say how the elastic wasteband is so freaking tight on these shorts that I'm having to spend more money on Tums than I saved on purshasing the shorts! Now why didn't I blurt out that part along with introducing the shorts? Because the part about the super tight wasteband discomfort doesn't make me sound like a winner so much as the $2 part!

So I'm thinking Varys just went with what sounded best to himself!!!!! (Describing Aegon the way he did makes Varys feel good, like he's doing the Lord's work or something that sounds like proper action. So he'd phrase it that way for Kevan and for his little birds too, and for any other unknown audience listening in too, because that's how he's wording his stump speech.)

[LongRider]

I have to agree with this. To me it was Martin taking another classic fantasy trope and turning it inside out. In an "in world" analysis I believe Varys was only talking to Kevan, it'd be kind of silly to have someone in the room hearing all your plans and watching you kill people just so you can give a speech that could be said anywhere. As for why Varys did it, I think he legitimately respected Kevan a bit and wanted to give what to himself was a valid reason to kill Kevan, and show off his grand plan that he's spent so much of his life on. A bit of gloating.

My take on the OP is that who Varys was speaking to was not in the room. Perhaps listening in from one of the secret tunnels (which Varys knows all about) or one of his little birds is reporting to another person, the HS perhaps.

[butterbumps!]

I have to agree with this. To me it was Martin taking another classic fantasy trope and turning it inside out. In an "in world" analysis I believe Varys was only talking to Kevan, it'd be kind of silly to have someone in the room hearing all your plans and watching you kill people just so you can give a speech that could be said anywhere. As for why Varys did it, I think he legitimately respected Kevan a bit and wanted to give what to himself was a valid reason to kill Kevan, and show off his grand plan that he's spent so much of his life on. A bit of gloating.

No, it wouldn't be silly for Varys to have someone with him. Think about the message that's being sent by doing it this way. And if the main goal is to gloat to Kevan, then he's doing a shit job, given that the major piece of this that would be super effective gloating (i.e. "I was one step ahead of your precious brother and spirited Aegon away from the sack, so the baby Tywin smashed was actually a nobody from Pisswater Bend), is what Varys omits.

[averde]

No, it wouldn't be silly for Varys to have someone with him. Think about the message that's being sent by doing it this way. And if the main goal is to gloat to Kevan, then he's doing a shit job, given that the major piece of this that would be super effective gloating (i.e. "I was one step ahead of your precious brother and spirited Aegon away from the sack, so the baby Tywin smashed was actually a nobody from Pisswater Bend), is what Varys omits.

Why does he have to be gloating about beating Tywin? He didn't consider Tywin his major rival so why would that be the part he focuses on? Varys could just be being a narcist and talking about his own plan and how good it is and how he made a perfect king. He's gloating/ singing his own praise.

Picture it like this,

Varys has donated the larger part of his life to living in secret, perfecting one super far reaching plan. Now is his chance to reveal it to someone who A is about to be dead and can't tell anyone and B is smart enough to comprehend it and understand what it means and the amount of effort that would be needed to accomplish it.

[butterbumps!]

Why does he have to be gloating about beating Tywin? He didn't consider Tywin his major rival so why would that be the part he focuses on? Varys could just be being a narcist and talking about his own plan and how good it is and how he made a perfect king. He's gloating/ singing his own praise.

Picture it like this,

Varys has donated the larger part of his life to living in secret, perfecting one super far reaching plan. Now is his chance to reveal it to someone who A is about to be dead and can't tell anyone and B is smart enough to comprehend it and understand what it means and the amount of effort that would be needed to accomplish it.

It doesn't take much to "picture" that. You're basically saying that Varys is now apparently prone to giving Bond Villain monologues. Because a catharsis monologue is basically "chicken soup for the mastermind villain's soul" or something.

In general, I'm honestly really surprised that the idea of someone else being there-- either directly invited in by Varys, or someone of import Varys suspects is observing "secretly"-- is getting so much backlash.

Out of interest, why is it easier to believe to that our master performer, Varys, is giving some kind of genuine "I'm such an awesome villain" speech than to read this as theatre?? Why on earth would Martin have this king mummer take off his mask-- for the first time-- to kill a dying man in a location notorious for having ears, such that we ought to take for granted that Varys is having a genuine, heartfelt moment of self-congratulations? Would Varys be an effective spy if he went around conducting "I am such an awesome villain" monologues each time he kills someone?

I do not understand why it seems to be so much easier to believe that this is somehow genuine-- either as monologue or "exposition" for readers, than to think of Varys' character-- a mummer, who performs-- to see this as a performance for someone. He's all but putting on a play in these last 2 pages, especially when you look at what's being said, particularly in terms of the threats and sweet promises.

It's also perplexing to me that it's easier to assume that Varys suddenly shifted his character so dramatically to now include "Everything is Awesome" monologues than consideration of the idea that someone else is there, in the room, given the fact that this chapter takes place in a dark room, narrated by a highly distracted, dying Kevan, who doesn't even see Pycelle, Varys or the birds at first because they're in shadow.

[UnmaskedLurker]

It doesn't take much to "picture" that. You're basically saying that Varys is now apparently prone to giving Bond Villain monologues. Because a catharsis monologue is basically "chicken soup for the mastermind villain's soul" or something.

In general, I'm honestly really surprised that the idea of someone else being there-- either directly invited in by Varys, or someone of import Varys suspects is observing "secretly"-- is getting so much backlash.

Out of interest, why is it easier to believe to that our master performer, Varys, is giving some kind of genuine "I'm such an awesome villain" speech than to read this as theatre?? Why on earth would Martin have this king mummer take off his mask-- for the first time-- to kill a dying man in a location notorious for having ears, such that we ought to take for granted that Varys is having a genuine, heartfelt moment of self-congratulations? Would Varys be an effective spy if he went around conducting "I am such an awesome villain" monologues each time he kills someone?

I do not understand why it seems to be so much easier to believe that this is somehow genuine-- either as monologue or "exposition" for readers, than to think of Varys' character-- a mummer, who performs-- to see this as a performance for someone. He's all but putting on a play in these last 2 pages, especially when you look at what's being said, particularly in terms of the threats and sweet promises.

It's also perplexing to me that it's easier to assume that Varys suddenly shifted his character so dramatically to now include "Everything is Awesome" monologues than consideration of the idea that someone else is there, in the room, given the fact that this chapter takes place in a dark room, narrated by a highly distracted, dying Kevan, who doesn't even see Pycelle, Varys or the birds at first because they're in shadow.

While I find your theory somewhat persuasive (but not determinedly so) and while I definitely think Aegon is most likely (f)Aegon and not the "real" Aegon, the reason I am not totally convinced another person is in the room is that I am not sure how Varys could be sure this person would not report what Varys just did. Varys wants suspicion thrown onto Tyrion, which cannot happen if someone Varys does not control is watching. Varys cannot risk an eye witness to the murder reporting this murder to someone who might start looking for Varys to put him on trial for the murder. Varys is safe in part because no one knows for sure where he is.

So this mystery person has to be important enough that convincing him or her that (f)Aegon is the real Aegon is a valuable con, but not someone who would increase risk to Varys if the person objects to Varys killing Kevan. If you can explain that conundrum, I might move from somewhat persuaded to more or less convinced (but I think I am more sympathetic to the theory than many other skeptics to begin with, so convincing me might not be that much of a victory).

[James Arryn]

Not really. Everything said about Aegon is stuff the reader already knows, without parsing through every line and all the spaces between the lines. It's very explicitly spelled out for us in Tyrion and Jon Con's chapters. There is no new information being offered here about Aegon.

I will try to restate: Martin not only commonly mentions something more than once, but we commonly seek repetition of something as necessary to consider it factual. As he uses no omniscient objective narratives, we often need corresponding confirmations to ascribe more than personal bias to any accounting. And we have seen this kind of summary/repetition many times before without needing to suppose an agenda in the re-telling, particularly when the original details were scattered and often subtle.

Which is not to say you're wrong, but merely that I think your assumptions are premised on an artificial need to explain something which otherwise would not need it.

That said, I disagree with your conclusions in specific because, if there is another listener Varys is trying to reach, the key phrase for me would be the 'good men in service to bad causes'. That is the jagged edge; the part which is not explained in the whole. If he's actually trying to reach someone with sincerely altruistic/populist aims, he would not lightly admit that the man he is killing was doing good work on the whole. The lever he raises is the separation of the man...the potentially good man...in the service of a bad cause. The High Sparrow would not see himself as such, nor would he be likely to think Kevan that in any notable fashion.

So, if your theory is correct, I would look rather for someone else for whom loyalty or duty could be argued to have mislead him, who would potentially want to see himself as a good man in service to a bad cause' as a means of rationalizing his switching sides.

Off the top of my head, without even considering if it's physically possible, potential candidates would include Qyburn, Tarly, Redwyne, even Tyrell himself if Varys felt he was looking for an out, Swyft, etc. I think Redwyne and Swyft are provably impractical, but just meant to illustrate the type I feel that phrase is meant to cozen.

[butterbumps!]

While I find your theory somewhat persuasive (but not determinedly so) and while I definitely think Aegon is most likely (f)Aegon and not the "real" Aegon, the reason I am not totally convinced another person is in the room is that I am not sure how Varys could be sure this person would not report what Varys just did. Varys wants suspicion thrown onto Tyrion, which cannot happen if someone Varys does not control is watching. Varys cannot risk an eye witness to the murder reporting this murder to someone who might start looking for Varys to put him on trial for the murder. Varys is safe in part because no one knows for sure where he is.

So this mystery person has to be important enough that convincing him or her that (f)Aegon is the real Aegon is a valuable con, but not someone who would increase risk to Varys if the person objects to Varys killing Kevan. If you can explain that conundrum, I might move from somewhat persuaded to more or less convinced (but I think I am more sympathetic to the theory than many other skeptics to begin with, so convincing me might not be that much of a victory).

But Varys isn't actually trying to blame Tyrion for this. At least not in any conclusive or exclusive way.

Particularly, Varys talks about setting this up so that Tyrion, Tyrell and Martell all look like suspects. He kills Pycelle like Aegon had been (blunt force to the head), and Kevan is finished like Rhaenys (stabbing), which looks like Dornish vengeance. He restrains Kevan with the crossbow, which looks like Tyrion might have involvement. The Tyrells have very good reason to be angry with Pycelle, being as how he's the one who accused Marg of the moon tea; to add, with Kevan out of the picture, they can replace the Lannisters, so there's a power grab in it for them. He even walks us through this-- Dorne, Tyrells, and Tyrion will all be blamed for this.

What eyewitness would turn Varys in in a believable way? Even in the unlikely event that the person witnessing this isn't a spy but some schmo guard reporting back to someone, who is going to believe it was Varys given the tension and distrust there? It's like saying the boogeyman did it.

Aegon's authenticity is precisely what's not important to the listener. The message being sent is that this will cause of a power vacuum and complete distrust between these 3 families, and that Aegon is coming to fill it. It's showing someone that Aegon is the horse to bet on, and now has a pretty good chance of succeeding, given that Varys is in the middle of murdering the last strength of House Lannister and sowing discord. The part Varys does emphasize, however, is Aegon's education, humble upbringing and how he understands his responsibility to his subjects-- in a nutshell, everything other than his legitimacy.

If there's another listener there that Varys invited in, that person is at Varys' mercy. Varys can easily kill this person and escape, and wouldn't invite him in in the first place if this person was so outrageously hostile to killing Lannisters. I'm saying that this is Varys' version of treating out on a battlefield. This whole thing is part of Varys' sales pitch-- "see with your own eyes, I can get to anyone no matter how protected or highborn, and watch as I remove this potential problem of Kevan for both of us."

I will try to restate: Martin not only commonly mentions something more than once, but we commonly seek repetition of something as necessary to consider it factual. As he uses no omniscient objective narratives, we often need corresponding confirmations to ascribe more than personal bias to any accounting. And we have seen this kind of summary/repetition many times before without needing to suppose an agenda in the re-telling, particularly when the original details were scattered and often subtle.

Which is not to say you're wrong, but merely that I think your assumptions are premised on an artificial need to explain something which otherwise would not need it.

That said, I disagree with your conclusions in specific because, if there is another listener Varys is trying to reach, the key phrase for me would be the 'good men in service to bad causes'. That is the jagged edge; the part which is not explained in the whole. If he's actually trying to reach someone with sincerely altruistic/populist aims, he would not lightly admit that the man he is killing was doing good work on the whole. The lever he raises is the separation of the man...the potentially good man...in the service of a bad cause. The High Sparrow would not see himself as such, nor would he be likely to think Kevan that in any notable fashion.

So, if your theory is correct, I would look rather for someone else for whom loyalty or duty could be argued to have mislead him, who would potentially want to see himself as a good man in service to a bad cause' as a means of rationalizing his switching sides.

Off the top of my head, without even considering if it's physically possible, potential candidates would include Qyburn, Tarly, Redwyne, even Tyrell himself if Varys felt he was looking for an out, Swyft, etc. I think Redwyne and Swyft are provably impractical, but just meant to illustrate the type I feel that phrase is meant to cozen.

Well, except that we didn't "conclude" it was the HS. We said that of the possible choices it was the one we liked because it fit so completely, but that we're open to other candidates in the OP. I think this thread is more about figuring out who's listening than automatically concluding it's the HS.

But for the record, the HS is pretty brutal. He's not exactly altruistic. He's populist, but not necessarily Mother Theresa.

One that hasn't been mentioned, but would work with the idea of indoctrinating someone through this little performance, and whom we have good reason to suspect is in Varys' pocket right now, is Tyrek.