Was there a catalyst for Roose Bolton's betrayal?

[Ghosts Lunch]

What do you think's gonna happen with Roose and the Northern Conspiracy?

Personally I reckon Ramsay will actually get him,

Northern conspiracy, I think there are northern Lords plotting but I don't reckon it is co-ordinated, is quite interesting to see how the Stark loyalists, Boltons/Freys and Stannis are all going to get mixed, there's three different agendas afoot, four if you include Mance Rayder (who I think wrote the Pink letter) and the Wildlings at the wall

"give my regards to Tywin"--- Roose

"give my regards to Robb"----Jamie

----"Jamie lannister sends his regards" Roose to Robb at the red wedding,,,,

Robb proved he could not keep his prisoner...

A Lannister always pays his debts.

Where would you send Jamie?

What I find interesting is what happens to the prisoners at the Twins en route to KL, we might see a Jaimie in reverse dynamic where the Freys/Boltons can't keep their hostages (except Edmure).

It's all speculative at this stage, I'm not sure Jaimie put anything in writing so the Freys could quite easily balk

Wow will make for some very interesting reading...

[stateofdissipation]

Personally I reckon Ramsay will actually get him,

Northern conspiracy, I think there are northern Lords plotting but I don't reckon it is co-ordinated, is quite interesting to see how the Stark loyalists, Boltons/Freys and Stannis are all going to get mixed, there's three different agendas afoot, four if you include Mance Rayder (who I think wrote the Pink letter) and the Wildlings at the wall

What I find interesting is what happens to the prisoners at the Twins en route to KL, we might see a Jaimie in reverse dynamic where the Freys/Boltons can't keep their hostages (except Edmure).

It's all speculative at this stage, I'm not sure Jaimie put anything in writing so the Freys could quite easily balk

Wow will make for some very interesting reading...

Jamie had nothing to do with the red wedding.... he was just the catalyst that made Roose switch sides....

That is the irony.... Lady Stoneheart blames Jamie because of what Roose said.... when Cat's release of Jamie (not what Jamie did) was the cause of the comment.

[JoeyBanana]

The Lannister/Tyrell alliance and Bran/Rickon being captured by Ironborn.

Stannis' loss wasn't as significant as the nature of his defeat. He was basically driven into Blackwater Bay and crushed, without the Tyrells, that doesn't happen and Tywin's army takes heavy losses which could have turned the tide for Robb aswell.

Winterfell's fall was only temporarily and everybody knew it would be retaken very quickly. Moat Cailin or Deepwood Motte were bigger hits to the campaign, for example, as they couldn't as easily drive the Ironborn out and restore Stark rule. It's somewhat symbolic but what really hurt Robb there was the assumed death of his brothers. That was not only bad for moral but also weakened his power base severly /there must always be a Stark at Winterfell, etc) and most importantly, it removed his possible heirs. That's why Ramsay was there in the first place, to get Bran and Rickon, so no Stark could oppose him once he had murdered Robb.

So yeah, as soon as Robb was the lone wolf and the Tyrells joined the war, Roose turned cloak.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

I actually think Theon taking Winterfell was the catalyst for him considering his options

As he says to Theon in ADWD, Winterfell was doomed when that happened because similar to Cersei having to do the naked walk without her regal clothes, it has smashed the Starks perception of power given their seat of power

Obviously later on he would find out that Ramsay committed a crime of opportunity and managed to take out Ser Rodrik and sack Winterfell which has compounded the doom of the Starks. He may have still slightly been in two minds, eg he wrote the letter condemning Ramsay as a way to hedge his bets in case Robb came back, in which case he could distance himself from Ramsay and claim he was a rogue. This would be under the assumption that Renly/Stannis would take KL

There was Riverrun as an alternative seat of power in a North/Riverlands Kingdom but once the Ironborn took Moat Cailin Robb was cut off from the North. Going back to the North in force would mean leaving the Riverlands completely vulnerable

Robb marrying Jeyne Westerling and Stannis defeat at KL was the nail in the coffin, Roose knew Robbs cause was then lost and committed fully to his deception

Excellent analyis.

Well, the idea could have been brewing in there long before he actually did it. He isn't exactly the most faithful of people, so it's not really an incredibly unbelievable thought the he thought, pretty early on, "Why should this boy be king in the North and me just a loyal follower, when I can be Warden of the North under the Lannisters and have an actually high and secure position?". And then Robb screwed up and he saw his chance in that, so...

Jaime did mention in one of his ASOS chapters that certain high lords are always having to contend with a historic rival who aims to usurp them, and he specifically names the Boltons as such a rival to the Starks.

Okay, this being said don't you think it's kinda poor writing how Rodrik loses Winterfell? He completely leaves Winterfell undefended when marching on Torrhen Square, he takes almost ALL the soldiers. Doesn't that kinda sound ridiculous to you?

I wouldn't say it was poor writing. It was certainly poor tactics on Rodrik's part, but I suppose there's a reason he isn't in charge of Robb's army.

Robb's marriage probably was quite so accidental. Sybel Spycer is a granddaughter of Maggy the Frog, who "half of Lannisport went to for love portions." Looks like she inherited the recipe. And of course she wouldn't have done it without Tywin's approval. He is their overlord after all, and the marriage would have been treason. And if Roose had been conspiring with Tywin already, he probably knew that something was going to happen.

I actually think that she didn't do it with Tywin's approval, rather she improvised knowing that Tywin would thank her later.

Some further thoughts, the book is only just getting into it, but I like the way the book is exploring the way perception plays a part in the fortunes of a given House after the death of important characters

eg, Ned and Robb are seen as too honourable for the sake of being successful in the Game of Thrones and they are taken down for being rather naive and the House effectively extinct. On the other hand there is Tywin Lannister who has managed to become so feared that the Ironborn opt not to attack him, the Westerlings sue for peace with him despite their daughter being made a Queen and he is considered a once in a thousands years character

Upon Robbs death however, the fact it involved perceived treachery along with the very powerful perception that comes with never losing a battle plays an important part in people willing to honour his memory (probably through Northern Lords working towards honouring his Will even after the northern/Riverlands Kingdom has collapsed)

Tywin on the other hand, the issue he faces is that his legacy starts to unravel the moment he is dead and the Lannister prestige begins to collapse

Then there is Ned and the Stark name overall, the conversation with the Liddle in Brans POV chapter is extremely telling, when there is a Stark in Winterfell there is peace in the land and stable, caring and honourable leadership. As we can see through Lyanna Mormont and and Wylla Manderley people are fiercely loyal to the Stark name because of what it stands for (my impression is that Jon Arryn evokes a similar resonse in the Vale)

Therefore the Boltons, and especially the cruel Ramsay, will never be able to consolidate their hold on the North, which is what I enjoy about the Grand Northern conspiracy, I think it is not quite as co-ordinated as suggested but we can tell from Stannis and Rooses issues in garnering loyalty that the disparate northern forces are motivated by trying to resurrect what is effectively a dead house in whatever way possible (the hill clans even pressing forward in a blizzard to rescue "Neds little girl")

It's somewhat ironic then that while they are slagged off for being stupid and honourable, they may be resurrected again out of the 'love' that honour has garnered even when all has been lost

I agree, it's Tywin's biggest mistake, that fear is more effective than love. Fear is only as good as your strength. If people fear you, and hate you - and I submit that the things Tywin does to instil fear in people lead to him being hated - then the second they smell weakness they will attack. Tywin's victories are phyric (did I spell that right?), and they won't last. Indeed, he's already sowed the seeds of his own destruction twenty years earlier: by killing Elia, he made enemies of the Dornish, who've spent twenty years working against him in secret. Oberyn may have even poisoned him.

It's the Lannister victory at Blackwater, as well as Robb's loss of Winterfell that inspires him to hedge his bets by giving Glover and Tallhart those false directives. Roose is discussing it with the other lords in Harrenhal, and those 2 issues are the specific ones they cite as reason to abandon Robb. Then he goes out wolf hunting. When he gets back from the hunt, the Freys are in a tizzy because of the broken wedding pact, and leave Robb's cause (it's all in aCoK, Arya X).

So Blackwater and the loss of Winterfell are what inspire Roose to start hedging bets, and by the time the Freys leave the cause at the end of the chapter, he's nearly completely turned.

Good catch! Re-reading it just now, I notice that one of the Freys said something like "You don't know the Lannisters like we do," which certainly seems ominous with hindsight. Perhaps it was innocent, but perhaps Roose Bolton might have read something between the lines there? Not that the Freys were already switching sides - this was before they learned of Robb's marriage - but it might have hinted that they had a closer relationship than Robb previously knew (Cleos married to a Lannister, for instance), and this may have affected Roose's calculations.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

So, then: Roose was never particularly loyal to the Starks, and he was convinced to switch sides at the end of ACOK because:

• Robb lost Winterfell
  
• Robb lost his heirs
  
• Robb lost the Freys
  
• Stannis lost at the Blackwater
  
• The Tyrells joined the Lannisters
  
• The Ironborn held Moat Cailin
  

Which meant that Robb was weak, the Freys were no longer loyal to him, and the northern armies were trapped between Tywin and Victarion. That's very strong incentive to change teams, and tremendous opportunity, too. I'll buy all that.

What about Ramsay? There's no way Roose could have known Ramsay intended to take Winterfell - unless he sent a bird from the Dreadfort to Harrenhall, but I find that unlikely. But what about Lady Hornwood? Any suggestion that Daddy Bolton knew what Little Bolton was up to?

[The Fallen]

I had a nice response, went underground,couldn't post it and lost it.

But Butterbumps is right. The Blackwater was the catalyst. Roose was always strengthening his position at the expense of his fellow northern lords. But the initial endgame wasn't toppling the Starks. Lots of other things had to happen for the opportunity of replacing the Starks to present itself.

I think Ned and Benjen being dead (presumed in Benjen's case) and Bran and Rickon presumed dead - thus leaving no male heirs for the North to rally around once Robb transformed into a wolf and had to be put down - also played a role in Roose's betrayal.

[butterbumps!]

What about Ramsay? There's no way Roose could have known Ramsay intended to take Winterfell - unless he sent a bird from the Dreadfort to Harrenhall, but I find that unlikely. But what about Lady Hornwood? Any suggestion that Daddy Bolton knew what Little Bolton was up to?

Actually, by Arya X, aCoK, Roose and Rams may have already been communicating again. There's relatively little time when neither Roose or Rams are at a castle with access to mail. We know for sure that Rams and Roose communicated after the taking of Winterfell-- Rams sends Roose a letter for Robb, with Theon's skin attached in Cat VI aSoS (the one prior to the RW).

We can deduce that Roose and Rams communicated before Rams did the taking (Rams takes Winterfell in the last Theon chapter, just after Arya X). For one thing, Rams reveals to Theon that he had sent notice to Manderly to come in order to double-cross him, but that Manderly refused, which tells us that Rams was at the Dreadfort dealing with correspondence, waiting for responses to the letters he was sending out. But most tellingly, during the taking, Rams instructs his men to put everything to the torch except for the 2 Walders. That tells us he's been communicating with Roose, as Roose is the one who'd give a directive to secure Frey hostages, being as how he's married to one (in fact, Little's sister), and the Freys a major Bolton ally.

[The Academic Wolf]

What about Ramsay? There's no way Roose could have known Ramsay intended to take Winterfell - unless he sent a bird from the Dreadfort to Harrenhall, but I find that unlikely. But what about Lady Hornwood? Any suggestion that Daddy Bolton knew what Little Bolton was up to?

That is hard to say. Roose claims that he knew nothing about Ramsey's actions, and as you point it, it is difficult, but not impossible, to arrange such a thing.

Personally, I always felt that the Hornwood Incident was Ramsey playing up, attempting to do something to please Roose and get him to name him heir/attempt to get him legitimised. After all, if Roose had returned home to find his bastard Lord of the Hornwood, and therefore House Bolton gaining possibly twice the amount of land/military and financial power it had before, why shouldn't Roose be impressed and attempt to have House Bolton live on through his now legitimised son Ramsey? Of course, like everything Ramsay does, it does not consider all the angles, namely what the Starks would do/say once they returned to the North. Which possibly has a "fetch me a block" line attached to it, and naming one of...Brenda? Tallhart's sons Lord of the Hornwood and taking the Hornwood name.

[marsyao]

It is the battle of the Blackwater Bay, other setbacks such as fall of the Winterfell and the attacks of the Ironborn could be recovered, the Rob's marriage could be forgiven if the North was winning the war, but the battle of the Blackwater Bay determined that the war was lost for the North and certainlyh Roose Bolton would not want to go down with a sinking ship

[The Fallen]

Actually, by Arya X, aCoK, Roose and Rams may have already been communicating again. There's relatively little time when neither Roose or Rams are at a castle with access to mail. We know for sure that Rams and Roose communicated after the taking of Winterfell-- Rams sends Roose a letter for Robb, with Theon's skin attached in Cat VI aSoS (the one prior to the RW).

We can deduce that Roose and Rams communicated before Rams did the taking (Rams takes Winterfell in the last Theon chapter, just after Arya X). For one thing, Rams reveals to Theon that he had sent notice to Manderly to come in order to double-cross him, but that Manderly refused, which tells us that Rams was at the Dreadfort dealing with correspondence, waiting for responses to the letters he was sending out. But most tellingly, during the taking, Rams instructs his men to put everything to the torch except for the 2 Walders. That tells us he's been communicating with Roose, as Roose is the one who'd give a directive to secure Frey hostages, being as how he's married to one (in fact, Little's sister), and the Freys a major Bolton ally.

This one always tripped me up because of the timeline.

One other thing too. Ser Rodrik Cassel gets a lot of criticism, but Theon, and only Theon, could have taken Winterfell with so few men. And how was Rodrik to know that Theon was even in the North, never mind attempting to take Winterfell?

[Lord Damian]

Bran and Rickon's supposed deaths, accompanyed by Ramsay's undesired aggression towards Lady Hornwood (abduction, marriage/rape) as well as Robb's marriage severing the tie with the Frey (also the gatekeepers to returning North) and most importantly, the Battle of the Blackwater resulting in a super alliance with the 120k strong Tyrells to the Lannisters. Roose though, had he known that Bran and Rickon were still alive would not have killed Robb. Clear though, the Freys either joined Tywin and convinced Roose to do so to or it was Roose who convinced them. We may never know but someone had to reach out to someone first. I am curious as to who did and how it played out behind the scenes. Note, Ramsay knew Bran and Rickon were alive in the books as well and It appears also withheld that info (although it does not say directly) until after the Red Wedding much to Roose's displeasure at such news. Meaning, if any Stark boys lived, the North would rally to them and tell the Boltons to go to hell no matter what Kings Landing says.

[K-26dp]

There's strong evidence that Roose was using his position as battle commander to bleed off strength of the other Northern vassel lords as far back as the Battle of the Greek Fork. I suspect some form of Duskendale was already planned even before the Frey defection.

I suspect it was Roose who first approached the Freys about the double-cross.

[Lord Martin]

I agree w/ Bumps that the Blackwater was the ultimate catalyst.

Before Blackwater, Roose does some questionable things, but they can all be seen as him raising his stature among the northern lords. He bleeds other forces, saving his own at the Green Fork. He then marries a Frey guaranteeing himself access to the Twins even if something goes amiss at River Run. He dupes the Bloody Mummers and frees many Northmen from Harrenhal. Then its radio silence at Harrenhal until Arya's last chapter in ACOK.

After Roose gets word of Blackwater he says things like "I am not a man to be undone." as well as "it is wolves I mean to hunt." When he gets back from the hunt, he learns of Robb's betrayal of the Freys and is asked if he wants the wolf cub pelts turned into gloves to which he replies, "let it be done." I suspect this is a fait a compli in his turn against the Starks.

I wonder if the book he burns at Harrenhal was a cipher of sorts for either Tywin or Lord Frey or even Ramsay.

This last chapter roughly matches up with early ASOS chapters as Lord Tywin tells Tyrion that some wars are won with Ravens. We also know that Tywin knows about the march on Duskendale. How else could he know that unless Roose told....

[SunflashJT]

Dealing in 'What ifs' and 'Could Haves' is always dangerous. Roose is just a treacherous toad and saw his opportunity and took it.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Actually, by Arya X, aCoK, Roose and Rams may have already been communicating again. There's relatively little time when neither Roose or Rams are at a castle with access to mail. We know for sure that Rams and Roose communicated after the taking of Winterfell-- Rams sends Roose a letter for Robb, with Theon's skin attached in Cat VI aSoS (the one prior to the RW).

We can deduce that Roose and Rams communicated before Rams did the taking (Rams takes Winterfell in the last Theon chapter, just after Arya X). For one thing, Rams reveals to Theon that he had sent notice to Manderly to come in order to double-cross him, but that Manderly refused, which tells us that Rams was at the Dreadfort dealing with correspondence, waiting for responses to the letters he was sending out. But most tellingly, during the taking, Rams instructs his men to put everything to the torch except for the 2 Walders. That tells us he's been communicating with Roose, as Roose is the one who'd give a directive to secure Frey hostages, being as how he's married to one (in fact, Little's sister), and the Freys a major Bolton ally.

Well, I suppose that Ramsay might merely have seen the Frey boys as potential ransom-able hostages, worth more alive and with no pressing reason to kill them. On the other hand, they can finger him as having collaborated with Theon, particularly in the murder of Bran and Rickon, so maybe he would have been better off killing them, unless he was instructed not to.

I did always wonder how Ramsay was able to convince his father's garrison to turn on Winterfell, even when outnumbered. I assumed he'd lied, or maybe that the garrison knew him and knew Roose to be fond of him. But it makes more sense for Roose to have given some permission via raven.

Definitely he was sending ravens from the Dreadfort; probably some of those were between him and Roose. It still might not be the case; it depends on the timeline, and whether Ramsay could have known where Roose was at any given time. But I'm convinced. Well done. Ten points for Gryffindor!

I wonder if the book he burns at Harrenhal was a cipher of sorts for either Tywin or Lord Frey or even Ramsay.

I too have always wondered what the hell was in that book. Probably we'll never know. What a cocktease.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Theon/Ramsay attacking the Starks at Winterfell and the Blackwater.

Can somebody break down for me why Robb losing Winterfell is so significant? I understand it's a giant symbolic loss but what else?

Apart from the symbolic loss it costs Robb his immediate heirs. Furthermore, without Bran and and the infrastructure of Winterfell, there isn't anybody in the North to coordinate politics and military action against the Ironborn.

Okay, this being said don't you think it's kinda poor writing how Rodrik loses Winterfell? He completely leaves Winterfell undefended when marching on Torrhen Square, he takes almost ALL the soldiers. Doesn't that kinda sound ridiculous to you?

Yes, it's the worst-written part of the entire series. It's just something that has to happen because of plot. Otherwise, Robb would win the war.

What about Ramsay? There's no way Roose could have known Ramsay intended to take Winterfell - unless he sent a bird from the Dreadfort to Harrenhall, but I find that unlikely. But what about Lady Hornwood? Any suggestion that Daddy Bolton knew what Little Bolton was up to?

It's pretty much impossible for Ramsay to communicate with Roose between being taken as prisoner in the Hornwood lands and after razing Winterfell. He already has to haul ass to be back at Winterfell in time to ambush Ser Rodrik, no time to wait two weeks for a raven from Harrenhal.

Regardless of that, as soon as Ramsay did participate in the "murder" of Bran and Rickon, House Bolton was committed to wipe out the Starks. They'd never let that pass and would blame Roose as well.

Lady Hornwood is just realpolitik. Well, apart from the finger-eating incident, that's pure Ramsay. Roose could easily have ordered Ramsay to take advantage and explained it away after the war, had Ramsay behaved somewhat decently after the forced marriage.

One other thing too. Ser Rodrik Cassel gets a lot of criticism, but Theon, and only Theon, could have taken Winterfell with so few men. And how was Rodrik to know that Theon was even in the North, never mind attempting to take Winterfell?

The Ironborn are invading the North. Theon is an Ironborn and was last known to be with Balon.

There's strong evidence that Roose was using his position as battle commander to bleed off strength of the other Northern vassel lords as far back as the Battle of the Greek Fork. I suspect some form of Duskendale was already planned even before the Frey defection.

He's playing it safe at that part of the campaign. He'd be able to deal with both parties winning, while improving his position in the North either way.

[butterbumps!]

It's pretty much impossible for Ramsay to communicate with Roose between being taken as prisoner in the Hornwood lands and after razing Winterfell. He already has to haul ass to be back at Winterfell in time to ambush Ser Rodrik, no time to wait two weeks for a raven from Harrenhal.

Regardless of that, as soon as Ramsay did participate in the "murder" of Bran and Rickon, House Bolton was committed to wipe out the Starks. They'd never let that pass and would blame Roose as well.

Lady Hornwood is just realpolitik. Well, apart from the finger-eating incident, that's pure Ramsay. Roose could easily have ordered Ramsay to take advantage and explained it away after the war, had Ramsay behaved somewhat decently after the forced marriage.

It's really not impossible. Here's the order of things in the books:

• Theon takes Winterfell (Rams is a prisoner)-- aCoK Bran VI (chap 47)

Roose takes Harrenhal and makes Arya cupbearer-- aCoK Arya IX (chap 48)

Theon "kills" Bran and Rickon with "Reek"-- aCoK Theon IV (chap 51)

News of Bran and Rickon's deaths arrive at Riverrun-- aCoK Cat VII (chap 56)

Rams returns to the Dreadfort-- aCoK Theon V (chap 57)

Arya escapes-- aCoK Arya X (chap 65)

Rams returns and slaughters the Northmen-- aCoK Theon VI (chap 67)

We're told that when Rams was back at the Dreadfort (between chapt 57 and 67) he sends correspondence and waits for responses-- he particularly mentions telling Manderly to come, but having made an excuse not to ride out. Roose is already at Harrenhal by this point. So time-wise, it does work. Also, Rodrick was raising more men for the retaking of Winterfell; I don't think he was coming straight back, which buys a little more time.

There's also the issue of how Rams specifically instructed his men to safeguard the 2 Frey hostages during the Winterfell taking. I'm not sure why this would be so important to Rams without having corresponded with Roose about it. I don't think Rams is stupid, but their importance as hostages really only becomes clear if Rams knows Roose is married to Little's sister, that the Freys were now key Bolton allies, and that there's division between the Freys and Robb.

There's also the issue of whether the elite Dreadfort forces would truly march on Winterfell to destroy the other Northmen without sanction from Roose.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

It's really not impossible. Here's the order of things in the books:

• Theon takes Winterfell (Rams is a prisoner)-- aCoK Bran VI (chap 47)

Roose takes Harrenhal and makes Arya cupbearer-- aCoK Arya IX (chap 48)

Theon "kills" Bran and Rickon with "Reek"-- aCoK Theon IV (chap 51)

News of Bran and Rickon's deaths arrive at Riverrun-- aCoK Cat VII (chap 56)

Rams returns to the Dreadfort-- aCoK Theon V (chap 57)

Arya escapes-- aCoK Arya X (chap 65)

Rams returns and slaughters the Northmen-- aCoK Theon VI (chap 67)

We're told that when Rams was back at the Dreadfort (between chapt 57 and 67) he sends correspondence and waits for responses-- he particularly mentions telling Manderly to come, but having made an excuse not to ride out. Roose is already at Harrenhal by this point. So time-wise, it does work. Also, Rodrick was raising more men for the retaking of Winterfell; I don't think he was coming straight back, which buys a little more time.

There's also the issue of how Rams specifically instructed his men to safeguard the 2 Frey hostages during the Winterfell taking. I'm not sure why this would be so important to Rams without having corresponded with Roose about it. I don't think Rams is stupid, but their importance as hostages really only becomes clear if Rams knows Roose is married to Little's sister, that the Freys were now key Bolton allies, and that there's division between the Freys and Robb.

There's also the issue of whether the elite Dreadfort forces would truly march on Winterfell to destroy the other Northmen without sanction from Roose.

Tiny niggling issue: how did Ramsay know Roose was at Harrenhall?

[The Fallen]

The Ironborn are invading the North. Theon is an Ironborn and was last known to be with Balon.

And Rodrik didn't know it was the ironborn. That's my point.

[butterbumps!]

Tiny niggling issue: how did Ramsay know Roose was at Harrenhall?

I think Roose would keep his maester abreast of his movements. Undoubtedly he sent word as soon as he'd taken the castle.