TWOW "very unlikely" to be released in 2015 - Jane Johnson

[Tharvot]

In a short exchange on her twitter account, Martin's UK editor indicates that TWOW will likely NOT be released in 2015:

https://twitter.com/JaneJohnsonBakr/status/492050207979634689

This is rather depressing...

Seems like she was commenting on people hoping for an early release. 2015 near the timing of the 5th season of the show premier (or possibly finale) isn't out of the question.

[CountFJM]

(Apologies for length -- I do work in publishing, this is part basic primer on publishing editorial calendar, part my own speculation based on my having worked on similar "big" books)

Big" books that were "crashed" (i.e. the production schedule is expedited as fast as humanly possible) need bare minimum ~4 months between having a completely edited, finished manuscript ready to send to the printer and putting the hardcover on-sale (most printing is done in China or India so part of that time is shipping proofs back-and-forth making sure you don't fugazi your biggest release of the year, + taking orders and shipping to hundreds of accounts, etc). The fact that the book hasn't been scheduled doesn't really mean much -- most publishers work on a 3-season calendar system (Fall, Winter, Spring/Summer) scheduled up to 18 months in advance (for various reasons: list balancing, equipping your sales team to pitch distribution accounts, etc), but a huge release like WoW will be published much faster once the publisher has the manuscript in hand because it's important enough to override other scheduling concerns. But with GRRM not having turned in a rough manuscript this summer (and with no clear indication that it's coming soon), her point is that the clock is just about ticked out on 2015.

Well before production (that ~4 month process kicks off), editors need to begin developmental editing (i.e. the high-level, conceptual edit looking at pace, flow, narrative structure, etc) the finished draft. For a huge, complex manuscript like this that's probably at least a 2-3 months process, likely longer if there are substantive creative conflicts (along the lines of, say, cutting out most of your main characters) OR if you're working with an author whose not Speedy Gonzalez returning annotated drafts (and we can all probably agree that for all his gifts, GRRM was not blessed with expediency). Only when the developmental edit is complete will the book go into copyedit: another (minimum) 4-6 week process, followed interior design, layout, etc, before all parties are satisfied with the final product they're sending to the printer.

Speaking from experience, ALL of these processes take more time with an important, influential author because the publisher doesn't want to upset them over any part in the process. So even something relatively minor (like, say, the type treatment in the end pages) that a publisher would normally just do w/out author sign-off will go through GRRM to make sure he's OK with it. There is a lot of back-and-forth, dozens of checks that have to happen during the editorial and production stages, and as fast as a publisher wants to publish, they can only go as fast as the author they work with. All of these things are too important towards getting the final book right even in a "crash."

So, what Jane is likely saying is that he hasn't delivered the initial draft (and couldn't responsibly announce a publication date until the DEVELOPMENTAL EDIT is complete, much less announce off rough draft delivery), so the report she tweeted about is bogus. Knowing as she does the pace at which he works at, and how long the publishing process takes him even after delivery, he'd likely have to deliver relatively soon to get the manuscript into editing and kickoff production in time to make 2015, and that's probably not happening.

[Ser Not Appearing]

Note that she says she knows nothing other than that it's not on her schedule. Still, you can read between the lines I think... brutal... yet not entirely unexpected.

[Ser Not Appearing]

Any chance this means they're renaming it?

Anybody? Dang.

[Cas Stark]

(Apologies for length -- I do work in publishing, this is part basic primer on publishing editorial calendar, part my own speculation based on my having worked on similar "big" books)

Big" books that were "crashed" (i.e. the production schedule is expedited as fast as humanly possible) need bare minimum ~4 months between having a completely edited, finished manuscript ready to send to the printer and putting the hardcover on-sale (most printing is done in China or India so part of that time is shipping proofs back-and-forth making sure you don't fugazi your biggest release of the year, + taking orders and shipping to hundreds of accounts, etc). The fact that the book hasn't been scheduled doesn't really mean much -- most publishers work on a 3-season calendar system (Fall, Winter, Spring/Summer) scheduled up to 18 months in advance (for various reasons: list balancing, equipping your sales team to pitch distribution accounts, etc), but a huge release like WoW will be published much faster once the publisher has the manuscript in hand because it's important enough to override other scheduling concerns. But with GRRM not having turned in a rough manuscript this summer (and with no clear indication that it's coming soon), her point is that the clock is just about ticked out on 2015.

Well before production (that ~4 month process kicks off), editors need to begin developmental editing (i.e. the high-level, conceptual edit looking at pace, flow, narrative structure, etc) the finished draft. For a huge, complex manuscript like this that's probably at least a 2-3 months process, likely longer if there are substantive creative conflicts (along the lines of, say, cutting out most of your main characters) OR if you're working with an author whose not Speedy Gonzalez returning annotated drafts (and we can all probably agree that for all his gifts, GRRM was not blessed with expediency). Only when the developmental edit is complete will the book go into copyedit: another (minimum) 4-6 week process, followed interior design, layout, etc, before all parties are satisfied with the final product they're sending to the printer.

Speaking from experience, ALL of these processes take more time with an important, influential author because the publisher doesn't want to upset them over any part in the process. So even something relatively minor (like, say, the type treatment in the end pages) that a publisher would normally just do w/out author sign-off will go through GRRM to make sure he's OK with it. There is a lot of back-and-forth, dozens of checks that have to happen during the editorial and production stages, and as fast as a publisher wants to publish, they can only go as fast as the author they work with. All of these things are too important towards getting the final book right even in a "crash."

So, what Jane is likely saying is that he hasn't delivered the initial draft (and couldn't responsibly announce a publication date until the DEVELOPMENTAL EDIT is complete, much less announce off rough draft delivery), so the report she tweeted about is bogus. Knowing as she does the pace at which he works at, and how long the publishing process takes him even after delivery, he'd likely have to deliver relatively soon to get the manuscript into editing and kickoff production in time to make 2015, and that's probably not happening.

Thanks. That's helpful.

So, it seems like it may be that she's trying a last minute public strategy to get him going over the next I guess 6 month window, which after that, it would become almost impossible to get the book out in 2015.

I don't honestly know though, once the HBO show is over and has finished his story, what's going to motivate him then?

[Chebyshov]

Any chance this means they're renaming it?

Anybody? Dang.

Ha. Like "well, the Winds of Winter isn't coming out, but..."

[Faint]

Big" books that were "crashed" (i.e. the production schedule is expedited as fast as humanly possible) need bare minimum ~4 months between having a completely edited, finished manuscript ready to send to the printer and putting the hardcover on-sale (most printing is done in China or India so part of that time is shipping proofs back-and-forth making sure you don't fugazi your biggest release of the year, + taking orders and shipping to hundreds of accounts, etc).

Except for the fact that A Dance with Dragons had a much quicker turnaround than that (i.e., April 27, 2011, to July 12, 2011) = 76 days.

[Ser Not Appearing]

Ha. Like "well, the Winds of Winter isn't coming out, but..."

Glad someone got the joke. She didn't.

[CountFJM]

@Faint: Itjust speculation because I wasn't working there, but we can't know for certain what "Done" meant to GRRM. He could've been looking at, say, the final interior files about to go off to the printer, vs. the final copyedit manuscript (I was going to say "word doc" but I have no idea what he uses on that DOS, lol).

But it's a fair point. If any book sets publisher speed records it's likely to be a new GRRM.

[JagLover]

This is really depressing news guys. I will wager a case of cold beer we will not see the next book of this series for AT LEAST 3 more years.

I will wager another case that we will not see the end of ASOIAF in print, written by GRRM at any rate.

2016 for WOW?

2021 for ADWD?

and then, despite claims only two more books are needed, who doubts that there is 3 books of material left from where we are now?. So another 5 years to the end. How old will GRRM be then?. What author has done their best work, or any serious work at all, in their 70s?

[Chebyshov]

Glad someone got the joke. She didn't.

Haha, she took that so seriously! That almost made this depressing tweet worth it

[Faint]

(I was going to say "word doc" but I have no idea what he uses on that DOS, lol).

WordStar 4.0.

When it comes to his writing process, he is as stubborn and fixed in his ways as they come -- in my opinion, to his detriment.

[Cas Stark]

I will wager another case that we will not see the end of ASOIAF in print, written by GRRM at any rate.

2016 for WOW?

2021 for ADWD?

and then, despite claims only two more books are needed, who doubts that there is 3 books of material left from where we are now?. So another 5 years to the end. How old will GRRM be then?. What author has done their best work, or any serious work at all, in their 70s?

I am of the 3 book mind set. But, all of a sudden, I've started to get a bad feeling that he may not finish it at all and am seriously now looking at these publisher comments in a different light...not as random answers to questions and inappropriate info. drops but as PURE DESPERATION to get him to do something.

[Kyle H]

There's a post on his NAB detailing the page counts and dates he sent various partial manuscripts of Dance to his editor.

http://grrm.livejournal.com/217066.html

Presumably some work was being done on these partials, and presumably a similar pattern is being followed for Winds? Anne Groell mentioned that in early 2013 she got 200 pages (unclear if that was in addition to the material left out at the end of Dance or not).

[Fez]

@Faint: Itjust speculation because I wasn't working there, but we can't know for certain what "Done" meant to GRRM. He could've been looking at, say, the final interior files about to go off to the printer, vs. the final copyedit manuscript (I was going to say "word doc" but I have no idea what he uses on that DOS, lol).

But it's a fair point. If any book sets publisher speed records it's likely to be a new GRRM.

In a recent Q&A, his editor said that the editing process (not counting copy-editing) takes about two to three weeks with GRRM. Essentially because he just doesn't accept most changes, so she doesn't even suggest larger changes because they'll just be refused; and the smaller things he will accept doesn't take too long to fix.

ETA: I mean the edit once "its done," not any edits that may occur during the writing process. Although I still don't know how receptive he is to changes during that time either.

[Werthead]

(Apologies for length -- I do work in publishing, this is part basic primer on publishing editorial calendar, part my own speculation based on my having worked on similar "big" books)

Big" books that were "crashed" (i.e. the production schedule is expedited as fast as humanly possible) need bare minimum ~4 months between having a completely edited, finished manuscript ready to send to the printer and putting the hardcover on-sale (most printing is done in China or India so part of that time is shipping proofs back-and-forth making sure you don't fugazi your biggest release of the year, + taking orders and shipping to hundreds of accounts, etc). The fact that the book hasn't been scheduled doesn't really mean much -- most publishers work on a 3-season calendar system (Fall, Winter, Spring/Summer) scheduled up to 18 months in advance (for various reasons: list balancing, equipping your sales team to pitch distribution accounts, etc), but a huge release like WoW will be published much faster once the publisher has the manuscript in hand because it's important enough to override other scheduling concerns. But with GRRM not having turned in a rough manuscript this summer (and with no clear indication that it's coming soon), her point is that the clock is just about ticked out on 2015.

Well before production (that ~4 month process kicks off), editors need to begin developmental editing (i.e. the high-level, conceptual edit looking at pace, flow, narrative structure, etc) the finished draft. For a huge, complex manuscript like this that's probably at least a 2-3 months process, likely longer if there are substantive creative conflicts (along the lines of, say, cutting out most of your main characters) OR if you're working with an author whose not Speedy Gonzalez returning annotated drafts (and we can all probably agree that for all his gifts, GRRM was not blessed with expediency). Only when the developmental edit is complete will the book go into copyedit: another (minimum) 4-6 week process, followed interior design, layout, etc, before all parties are satisfied with the final product they're sending to the printer.

Speaking from experience, ALL of these processes take more time with an important, influential author because the publisher doesn't want to upset them over any part in the process. So even something relatively minor (like, say, the type treatment in the end pages) that a publisher would normally just do w/out author sign-off will go through GRRM to make sure he's OK with it. There is a lot of back-and-forth, dozens of checks that have to happen during the editorial and production stages, and as fast as a publisher wants to publish, they can only go as fast as the author they work with. All of these things are too important towards getting the final book right even in a "crash."

So, what Jane is likely saying is that he hasn't delivered the initial draft (and couldn't responsibly announce a publication date until the DEVELOPMENTAL EDIT is complete, much less announce off rough draft delivery), so the report she tweeted about is bogus. Knowing as she does the pace at which he works at, and how long the publishing process takes him even after delivery, he'd likely have to deliver relatively soon to get the manuscript into editing and kickoff production in time to make 2015, and that's probably not happening.

Most of the editing is done as part of the writing process in GRRM's case. When he completes a chapter and is reasonably happy it is done, he sends it to his editor who does her pass, GRRM does some more rewrites on it, and then he counts it as 'locked' and only then counts it as part of his completed page count. So there is no discrete writing/editing phase for GRRM's ASoIaF novels as there are for many others, they happen simultaneously.

Then, once the book really is completed, there'll be an additional editing pass, usually done by GRRM and Anne Groell simultaneously, and suggested changes integrated. It's at that point they consider the book finished and move into production. For ADWD that was fast, but a lot of people are unaware that it was even faster for ASoS: GRRM finished the book in May and it was on the shelves in the last week of July.

From AFFC and earlier, there is a clear modus operandi to how GRRM starts winding down his book-in-progress to completion: he will start giving much more precise figures on manuscript pages completed, he will delay/cancel other projects and will generally be prepared to talk about the book a hell of a lot more than earlier on, when he is really reluctant to say anything at all. In the case of ADWD, this talking-up of the book began approximately 18 months before final release.

However, ADWD also seems to have affected his resolve to do that. For ADWD he would often declare chapters done, dusted and completed to only find they needed substantial reworking as part of the changes he was making to deal with the Meereenese Knot and other issues. For TWoW he's basically given no MS page counts at all, which is highly unusual, and has only given 350-odd pages to his editor well over a year ago, instead of the more frequent hand-overs of chapters as they are done. This does not appear to be a sympton of panic or nothing getting done - he has also reported to making faster progress and to have not done anything approaching as much rewriting on TWoW as the two previous novels - but more a reluctance to commit to anything after this backfired on him for ADWD.

The lack of a talking-up of TWoW now might be taken to mean that TWoW is 18+ months away, but if GRRM is really choosing to maintain radio silence on his actual progress, that's not necessarily the case.

However, I think it's safe to say that the door is closing on the likelihood TWoW getting out in 2015, even if it will be a few more months before we can say it's completely impossible.

What author has done their best work, or any serious work at all, in their 70s?

Jack Vance's Lyonesse trilogy, for my money, is the crowning achievement of his career and one of the finest works of fantasy ever written. He concluded writing it when he was 74. Brian Aldiss wrote a very powerful SF novel called HARM when he was 82. Tolkien was still writing and producing Middle-earth material (some of it very good) when he died at the age of 81.

[CountFJM]

@Faint - yea, that can't possibly expedite the editorial process...GRRM clearly still does things from a pre-track changes era

@Kyle H - that was material who owed by that date to trigger a bonus (kind of passive-aggressive on her part to call that out):

"I currently have 168 pages that he submitted back in Feb 2013 in order to receive a contracted payment, but I know more exists, because he keeps talking about chapter he hasn’t yet sent me. In fact, when we wanted to put an exclusive excerpt on the A WORLD OF ICE AND FIRE app—a magnificent thing which you all should buy and use!—he suggested the second Tyrion chapter, which I then had to remind him was not in the sample I had."

Link: http://winteriscoming.net/2014/05/29/george-r-r-martins-editor-anne-groell-answers-fan-questions-live-qa-hopes-twow-reasonably-soon/

Given he's reading material he didn't submit in that sample, I think the only takeaway here is the one we already know: no one knows for sure when he'll finish, including GRRM, until he does

[Duke O' Nooobs]

There's a post on his NAB detailing the page counts and dates he sent various partial manuscripts of Dance to his editor.

http://grrm.livejournal.com/217066.html

Presumably some work was being done on these partials, and presumably a similar pattern is being followed for Winds? Anne Groell mentioned that in early 2013 she got 200 pages (unclear if that was in addition to the material left out at the end of Dance or not).

I'm curious about his NAB post detailing the page counts he sent to his editor. 3 years before the release he had over 500 pages sent.....If he is following the same pattern and only sent 200 pages last year......It looks like a long and bumpy ride, that it does.

[CountFJM]

@werthead: Thanks, very insightful. I was trying to speak broadly, but of course it all depends on the author and how they work with their editor (which can certainly be vastly inconsistent over the length of any long series). It certainly didn't seem from Anne's interview a few months ago that he had submitted much beyond the required minimum, given he was reading chapters that he considered final or near-final that she hadn't seen.

All of this is to say, I agree with your conclusion that 2015 looks out the window

[Werthead]

I'm curious about his NAB post detailing the page counts he sent to his editor. 3 years before the release he had over 500 pages sent.....If he is following the same pattern and only sent 200 pages last year......It looks like a long and bumpy ride, that it does.

The pages Groell received in February 2013 were in addition to the material left over from ADWD (which, obviously, she'd have have in April or May 2011, if not earlier). The combined amount, 168+150 (approx), plus maybe a bit more he hadn't sent, adds up to approximately the "quarter of the book done," (c. 375 MS pages) comment GRRM made in April 2013.