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R+L=J v.91


J. Stargaryen

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She might provide information about ToJ but we already have Wylla and HR for that.

People should just accept that dead = dead. You can wish that Ned is coming back, or Robb, but why wish it. If there is need for it (just like with Catelyn aka unCat, which I assume has a good reason besides killing of frey's), GRRM will figure it out. In this case I assume that if the info comes available, it will be through HR or Bran. It makes the most sense.

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Yeah but I'm taking into account the time delay necessary for the news to reach ToJ. Also, the news of the Sack might have arrived shortly after the news of the Trident but if the message to Ned had already been dispatched, there was no way to take it back.

ETA: It would also be a motive for Ashara's suicide - her mission brought about her brother's death.

I do like this especially the tragic element to Ashara's story. 👍 Things got out of control and resulted in the untimely and unnecessary deaths of several good people. Just imagine Ned living with this all his years. I also like to think that the kidnapping story might have been done for Lyanna's benefit perhaps even on her insistence. Lyanna might have wanted to protect her father's and family's honor and hope this would prevent Robert from blaming the Starks in anyway. Rhaegar must have consented to take the blame upon himself assuming no dire consequences and hoping once the fervor dies to reveal the truth. But they didn't expect Brandon to react the way he did and Aerys to go batshit crazy.

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Man this thread is moving fast - can't keep up.



One more question (before I go to work):


why the toj? Why in that location?


In order to get to the toj from KL one has to pass through Baratheon lands. The two nearest castles/towns are Kingsgrave of House Manwoody, loyal to the Martells and Nightsong of House Caron, bannermen to the Baratheons. It seems to be rather hostile territory. Why not a watch tower on the coast near Starfall? Or someplace close to Highgarden? or most of all, why not Dragonstone?



As Ygrain so elegantly laid it out yesterday, the 3 KG with Lyanna were stationed there before Aerys died. The were all honorable men, loyal to their vows to protect their king - who was in KL.



- The location Rhaegar picked to hide Lyanna argues for me that he was not that worried about Robert taking her back (she was practically in the Baratheon back yard).



- Was it Aerys?


We know Aerys knew about Lyanna & Rhaegar because of Brandon Stark. If Aerys was looking for L + R, the location in Baratheon lands certainly makes it harder for Aerys to track them.


Except for one little thing: the head of his personal guard is there. So if Gerold Hightower is as prickly about keeping his vow to protect the king as Ned Stark seems to think (in his fever dream), then he is still loyal to that vow when he leaves the side of the king and goes of to protect a pregnant teenager in the middle of nowhere. Aerys own guard would not be at the toj without his leave - without Aerys sending them there. The KG are therefore at the toj because that's where Aerys wants them to be.*



- the only person that location guards Lyanna from is Ned.


He has the farthest to go and the least familiarity with the place. And when Ned does arrive, the KG are implacable that he should not pass despite knowing that Rhaegar is dead at the Trident, that KL has been sacked and Aerys & Aegon killed and Robert is now king. If indeed there is a Targ heir in the tower, and he is not a king - Robert is. The child in the tower (if there is one) is merely head of house Targaryen.


So why did the KG vow to protect the child from Ned at all cost? Rhaegar knows Ned to be an honorable man. Has Rhaegar had some vision of Jon at the Wall, facing the Others and is he trying to shield him from the north and that icy destiny??



So many questions.



* shortly after the KG are stationed there, Rhaegar returns to KL to take command of the royal forces. Perhaps he and Aerys had struck some sort of deal: "You guard Lyanna, and I'll command the troops and fight for you."

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We jumped 4 pages over night? Unreal.



Personally I think it's because Ser Creighton told us there would be alcohol when we got to 100.






Man this thread is moving fast - can't keep up.



One more question (before I go to work):


why the toj? Why in that location?


In order to get to the toj from KL one has to pass through Baratheon lands. The two nearest castles/towns are Kingsgrave of House Manwoody, loyal to the Martells and Nightsong of House Caron, bannermen to the Baratheons. It seems to be rather hostile territory. Why not a watch tower on the coast near Starfall? Or someplace close to Highgarden? or most of all, why not Dragonstone?





Well for starters it's remote and protected. It's near loyal houses (Starfall) that can supply them if need be. No one knows where this tower is; in Ned's recollection of it, it's abandoned and rather run down. They need to be hidden and no one will look for them in this place.





Was it Aerys?


We know Aerys knew about Lyanna & Rhaegar because of Brandon Stark. If Aerys was looking for L + R, the location in Baratheon lands certainly makes it harder for Aerys to track them.


Except for one little thing: the head of his personal guard is there. So if Gerold Hightower is as prickly about keeping his vow to protect the king as Ned Stark seems to think (in his fever dream), then he is still loyal to that vow when he leaves the side of the king and goes of to protect a pregnant teenager in the middle of nowhere. Aerys own guard would not be at the toj without his leave - without Aerys sending them there. The KG are therefore at the toj because that's where Aerys wants them to be


If Aerys knew where Rhaegar was, I think Rhaegar's head would soon be on a spike. Aerys was paranoid enough, and Varys wasn't helping, that if Rhaegar is now hiding out with the daughter of the North, it means trouble for Aerys. We're not sure how Hightower found them.

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Man this thread is moving fast - can't keep up.

You say that while I was enjoying the silence, the calm after the storm.

why the toj? Why in that location?

In order to get to the toj from KL one has to pass through Baratheon lands. The two nearest castles/towns are Kingsgrave of House Manwoody, loyal to the Martells and Nightsong of House Caron, bannermen to the Baratheons. It seems to be rather hostile territory.

[..]

Perhaps he and Aerys had struck some sort of deal: "You guard Lyanna, and I'll command the troops and fight for you."

There was no territorial war, then.

There's another meme with detective story, that goes: where would you hide something that is desperately being searched for? And the answer is: In a place that has already been searched before.

It is not quite the same here, of course, only the Stormlords are campaigning with Robert first in the Reach and later in the Riverlands, and Dorne is keeping out of the conflict and trying diplomacy to solve Rhaegar's marriage issues or whatever they mean to do instead of supporting either side in the conflict. It is peaceful there. The war is far away.

I imagine the Aerys and Rhaegar exchange on the lines of: Aerys: So you actually took Lord Rickard's girl you wanted for your pleasure, out of the middle of a 200+ fortified camp? I thought those Northern traitors had all gone mad and deserved their burning well. No harm done, who are they to judge the dragon's pleasures. There's my son, you are a true Targaryen after all. Go on, I like your style.

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I imagine the Aerys and Rhaegar exchange on the lines of: Aerys: So you actually took Lord Rickard's girl you wanted for your pleasure, out of the middle of a 200+ fortified camp? I thought those Northern traitors had all gone mad and deserved their burning well. No harm done, who are they to judge the dragon's pleasures. There's my son, you are a true Targaryen after all. Go on, I like your style.

Excellent.

4 pages in your night (North /South Amerika I assume).

My night jumped 12-14 pages..

We just really want that party.

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As I was paging through the previous thread, there is an issue I'd like to adress.

It was suggested that Ashara may have been Ned's informant but then the question is why the ToJ showdown took place. My take is that possibly, the need to contact Ned arose after the Trident (Rhaegar's dead, so Lyanna and her child need help from her family) but before the news of the Sack reached ToJ. At that time, Rhaegar's children were still alive, and Jon, even if born already, was not the first in the succession line. Contacting Ned during this time window would have been safe. It is only the Sack and the deaths of Aerys and Aegon that drive the KG into protecting the secrecy at all costs, even against Lyanna's own family.

Continuing on this line of thought perhaps the need to contact Ned came from Dayne because he may have thought that Hightower would want to take Lyanna to KL now that Rhaegar was dead. And Dayne and possibly Whent not wanting to take Lyanna anywhere near KL/Aerys or disobey their LC might have asked Ashara to contact Ned. Subsequently, news of the sack reaches them and now Jon is King and Dayne and Whent's views on how best to handle the situation is in sync with Hightower's as now they all see the potential danger to Jon from Robert and cannot trust Ned as Robert's first to do right by Jon and his claim.

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You say that while I was enjoying the silence, the calm after the storm.

There was no territorial war, then.

There's another meme with detective story, that goes: where would you hide something that is desperately being searched for? And the answer is: In a place that has already been searched before.

It is not quite the same here, of course, only the Stormlords are campaigning with Robert first in the Reach and later in the Riverlands, and Dorne is keeping out of the conflict and trying diplomacy to solve Rhaegar's marriage issues or whatever they mean to do instead of supporting either side in the conflict. It is peaceful there. The war is far away.

I imagine the Aerys and Rhaegar exchange on the lines of: Aerys: So you actually took Lord Rickard's girl you wanted for your pleasure, out of the middle of a 200+ fortified camp? I thought those Northern traitors had all gone mad and deserved their burning well. No harm done, who are they to judge the dragon's pleasures. There's my son, you are a true Targaryen after all. Go on, I like your style.

What I forgot, is that Storm's End was under siege about that time by forces loyal to the crown, so probably relatively safe from Robert at the point the KG descended.

I like your imaginary conversation between Aerys and Rhaegar.

Where are you getting the 200+ fortified camp? I thought we did not know the circumstances of Lyanna's abduction - or even if she was abducted or whether she rode to him willingly. If it did happen as you suggest, doesn't it sound exactly like a wildling wedding?

Still, two main points to me that I think get glossed over or missed:

1) The KG were put at the toj while Aerys was very much alive and can only have been there on his command.

2) When Ned and his companions confronted the KG at the toj, any baby inside would not be the king because Robert had taken the thrown and been coronated at that point. The KG can and do only serve one king - the one who sits the IT. During the battle of the 5 kings they don't run to Stannis' side because he has the better claim - they stay with Joffrey because he's the one on the actual throne. Once GH and co. die, the remaining KG don't run to the toj to take their place. Barristan Selmy had some doubts later, but at the time he acknowledged Robert as king.

So the KG at the toj were protecting the Targaryen heir, not the king. (and I'm going with Ned's dream as my guide to believing that they knew as much).

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Excellent.

We just really want that party.

Especially considering half of this thread is more about the probability that Ashara is alive, rather than the theory of Jon's paternity.

What are we even on at this point? I got lost in the 12 pages of "bloody bed"s, irrelevant quotes about maidenhood, and travel times being puzzled out in the same breath as George's quote asking us not to do that, because he's aware they don't make sense.

Can someone give me a concise clarification of what we're hung up on?

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Still, two main points to me that I think get glossed over or missed:

1) The KG were put at the toj while Aerys was very much alive and can only have been there on his command.

2) When Ned and his companions confronted the KG at the toj, any baby inside would not be the king because Robert had taken the thrown and been coronated at that point. The KG can and do only serve one king - the one who sits the IT. During the battle of the 5 kings they don't run to Stannis' side because he has the better claim - they stay with Joffrey because he's the one on the actual throne. Once GH and co. die, the remaining KG don't run to the toj to take their place. Barristan Selmy had some doubts later, but at the time he acknowledged Robert as king.

So the KG at the toj were protecting the Targaryen heir, not the king. (and I'm going with Ned's dream as my guide to believing that they knew as much).

1) I don't think so. Dayne and Whent are Rhaegar's sworn shields. Hightower was sent to find Rhaegar and stayed. Why? Either Rhaegar ordered him to stay (if Aerys didn't order Hightower to return then there's a loop hole) OR to force Hightower's hand, Rhaegar took Dayne and Whent with him as far as Storm's End, thus Hightower HAD to stay with R's new wife and unborn child. After Dayne and Whent get back from taking R to SE, the world went mad and everything happened all at once.

2) They consider Robert to be a Usurper. They are serving the rightful King, not the pretender.

Especially considering half of this thread is more about the probability that Ashara is alive, rather than the theory of Jon's paternity.

What are we even on at this point? I got lost in the 12 pages of "bloody bed"s, irrelevant quotes about maidenhood, and travel times being puzzled out in the same breath as George's quote asking us not to do that, because he's aware they don't make sense.

Can someone give me a concise clarification of what we're hung up on?

I think it's a lot of the fine details, like why the ToJ and whether or not the KG would follow Rhaegar's last order in place of their primary duty....or something.

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I think it's a lot of the fine details, like why the ToJ and whether or not the KG would follow Rhaegar's last order in place of their primary duty....or something.

And lots of math.

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I like your imaginary conversation between Aerys and Rhaegar.

Where are you getting the 200+ fortified camp? I thought we did not know the circumstances of Lyanna's abduction - or even if she was abducted or whether she rode to him willingly. If it did happen as you suggest, doesn't it sound exactly like a wildling wedding?

Thanks.

Yes, it does indeed. Anyway, only the reader will notice, as Targs usually don't do wildling weddings :-)

Their grandfather, old Lord Rickard, had gone as well, with his son Brandon who was Father's brother, and two hundred of his best men. None had ever returned.

AGoT 53 Bran VI

The fabled app confirms that Lord Rickard and the 200 finest of Norhern Nobility were indeed on their march from the North to Riverrun to attend the wedding of Brandon Stark and Catelyn Tully. Elsewhere in a recent R+L thread I mentioned why I believe they could very well have been 1-3 weeks north of the place known as "The Crossroads".

I don't know if the camp was fortified, but come on, this is news in medieval times, so if it indeed wasn't fortified. as it might have been, nobody would ever believe that, truth aside.

Neither do I know if Lyanna was in the camp, and also not the circumstances of her leaving. I do indeed prefer her having left all of her own. Then, there were two Kingsguard with Rhaegar when it happened, so in the news that will definitely become an abduction and for tabloid value from admidst that fortified camp.

See. Some lies therein probably, just the way a good story evolves.

Ad 1) ... no, a member of the royal family can order Kingsguard to do what they want, there's plenty of precedence.

And if there wasn't, would not the king order them to do whatever his son tells them to do?

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The night is dark and full of posts! Well into #91 :stunned:





As I was paging through the previous thread, there is an issue I'd like to adress.



It was suggested that Ashara may have been Ned's informant but then the question is why the ToJ showdown took place. My take is that possibly, the need to contact Ned arose after the Trident (Rhaegar's dead, so Lyanna and her child need help from her family) but before the news of the Sack reached ToJ. At that time, Rhaegar's children were still alive, and Jon, even if born already, was not the first in the succession line. Contacting Ned during this time window would have been safe. It is only the Sack and the deaths of Aerys and Aegon that drive the KG into protecting the secrecy at all costs, even against Lyanna's own family.





Classically tragic. I love it :bowdown:



Also, quoting Apple Martini from the previous thread:



I agree that GRRM probably didn't dive too deep into the nitty gritty of puerperal fever's length before plotting out that chain of events. It actually helps my idea if he didn't, because it means Jon could be born right after the Sack without Ned having to haul ass to the Tower at an unreasonable/impossible speed in order to get to Lyanna while she was still alive. At this point, you (generally speaking) just have to accept that XYZ occurred in the order it did and just roll with it.


I also found the SSM where he sort of admits that the birthing process isn't really his forte, which is understandable: http://www.westeros...._Wildling_Women



^This. Anyway, only for the sake of argument, puerperal fever and a longer time frame can be easily reconciled. This old post of mine contains some interesting input directly from the father of western medicine ;)


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Thanks much! I also see that we've bridged Ashara into relevance, so I retract my earlier claims that her death was unrelated.

Personally, I agree that Hightower being there at the time tells us, at least, that one of the Kingsguard could not have been there because they had already turned against Aerys and considered Rhaegar to be king prior to his death. He did not judge, according to Jaime.

That suggests that, whether Jon was legitimate or not, guarding him did not contradict the primary objective of the Kingsguard. In order for that to be true, Jon or Lyanna would need to be significant enough to leave Viserys unguarded upon Aerys death. Or, conversely, that at the time of Ned's arrival, they did not know that Aerys was dead. Based on the conversation at the ToJ, it is implied that they do know, but not confirmed that Ned is not the first to inform them.

What other possible reasons than what has been presented (Jon is heir) would make this scenario sensible?

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why the toj? Why in that location?


In order to get to the toj from KL one has to pass through Baratheon lands. The two nearest castles/towns are Kingsgrave of House Manwoody, loyal to the Martells and Nightsong of House Caron, bannermen to the Baratheons. It seems to be rather hostile territory. Why not a watch tower on the coast near Starfall? Or someplace close to Highgarden? or most of all, why not Dragonstone?




If Rhaegar and Lyanna are hiding from Aerys, Dragonstone is not an option - limited access, too many people. The same, IMHO, goes for Starfall which, due to Dayne's close relationship with Rhaegar and his disappearance together with R+L, is the next logical location to look for them, along with Summerhall.


ToJ is halfway (approximately) between Summerhall and Starfall. I have no idea if the location is somehow important.







As Ygrain so elegantly laid it out yesterday, the 3 KG with Lyanna were stationed there before Aerys died. The were all honorable men, loyal to their vows to protect their king - who was in KL.




To their best knowledge, there were 4 more KG, Darry, Martell, Selmy and Jaime, who were carrying out the sworn duty, so Whent, Dayne and Hightower could be assigned to another task, just like Ser Arys or Loras Tyrell.






- Was it Aerys?


We know Aerys knew about Lyanna & Rhaegar because of Brandon Stark. If Aerys was looking for L + R, the location in Baratheon lands certainly makes it harder for Aerys to track them.


Except for one little thing: the head of his personal guard is there. So if Gerold Hightower is as prickly about keeping his vow to protect the king as Ned Stark seems to think (in his fever dream), then he is still loyal to that vow when he leaves the side of the king and goes of to protect a pregnant teenager in the middle of nowhere. Aerys own guard would not be at the toj without his leave - without Aerys sending them there. The KG are therefore at the toj because that's where Aerys wants them to be.*



* shortly after the KG are stationed there, Rhaegar returns to KL to take command of the royal forces. Perhaps he and Aerys had struck some sort of deal: "You guard Lyanna, and I'll command the troops and fight for you."



Our notion of what Hightower is like comes from Jaime's PoV, as well, and he didn't leave the king's side but was sent by Aerys to ensure Rhaegar's return. Dayne and Whent were Rhaegar's personal bodyguards.


If Aerys knew where Lyanna was, she would either be toast or a hostage against Ned and Robert and Rhaegar. No way Aerys knew where she was.


How did Rhaegar make Hightower stay? He did have some authority to command the KG, and he could have used a little blackmail - if you want me to go to KL, you must stay here.



I have little doubt that Aerys didn't want his KG to stay at ToJ, but if he didn't command Hightower expressly that he must needs come back with Rhaegar, then Hightower could stay on Rhaegar's order, and if Aerys had no means of communicating with ToJ, he couldn't countermand Rhaegar's order (or perhaps Rhaegar did strike a deal with him).






- the only person that location guards Lyanna from is Ned.


He has the farthest to go and the least familiarity with the place. And when Ned does arrive, the KG are implacable that he should not pass despite knowing that Rhaegar is dead at the Trident, that KL has been sacked and Aerys & Aegon killed and Robert is now king. If indeed there is a Targ heir in the tower, and he is not a king - Robert is. The child in the tower (if there is one) is merely head of house Targaryen.


So why did the KG vow to protect the child from Ned at all cost? Rhaegar knows Ned to be an honorable man. Has Rhaegar had some vision of Jon at the Wall, facing the Others and is he trying to shield him from the north and that icy destiny??




???? What do you mean by the bolded? Besides, he is not the only to arrive, he has six men with him whose reliability is a big unknown to the KG. Had he arrived solely on his own, they might have taken the chances with him.



Also, for Targaryen loyalists, Robert is not king, he is an Usurper - they do not acknowledge his claim and authority over them.





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So, just wondering...who thinks Jon is legitimate and who thinks he's a bastard?

Legit.

I think, mambru is the main poster who think he's a bastard still.

honeyed chicken is 98% sure that R+L = J and we're working on that 2 %

Did I miss anyone...?

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Legit.

I think, mambru is the main poster who think he's a bastard still.

honeyed chicken is 98% sure that R+L = J and we're working on that 2 %

Did I miss anyone...?

Yes, def legit. And you are missing SoD although I'm not sure where he/she stands on the Jon legit argument.

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