The Nature of Visions and Prophecies

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

I think he may have actually grown to trust her had she not embellished what she saw to try to gain his trust so quickly. She knew that Arya was very important to him, and decided to dangle that in front of him like a carrot. When he gets his hopes up for Arya and then finds Alys, it crushes him. Melisandre took a risk to try to gain him to her side, and it backfired on her.

Now, how will he feel about it when he wakes up (from a coma or from death or whatever it ends up being)? Not really sure. I think there will be much more to it than just "Jon trusts Melisandre now", though.

Melisandre warned him a numer of times about the betrayal of marsh.. melisandre saw the pink letter.. and melisandre will look like she was the one to "bring him back"..

how can he not trust her after that?

[sj4iy]

Melisandre warned him a numer of times about the betrayal of marsh.. melisandre saw the pink letter.. and melisandre will look like she was the one to "bring him back"..

how can he not trust her after that?

I'm saying that because we don't know the circumstances of how he will be saved or brought back yet. We don't know what circumstance he will find himself in or with whom he will find himself. So there's too many 'ifs' to make any conclusions yet. We'll just have to see what happens before we can judge.

[Mithras]

This is a great read. Kudos OP. It does bring up a question though. Why is Marwyn off to see Dany? He has glass candles and can see her and influence her at his discretion right? Unless he does not know how to fully use them or does not trust them completely. With Sam he saw everything but wanted a few minor details.

I think he needs a lot of details like Dany’s dreams, how exactly the dragons hatched etc. It is a good thing that he does not trust the prophecies completely like Aemon.

I simply do not see how the last moments of Aemon are supposed to give us the idea that he found the truth before he died. He was feverish and dying, something he clearly feared. His sanity was fading. He said that the people deceive themselves when they want to believe but he believed that Dany fulfilled the prophecies on the basis of the rumors coming from the east.

He was also missing the knowledge of the Dothraki Prophecy (The Stallion that Mounts the World). This is something Mel missed too.

Good points. There is also Rhaegar. If the PTWP is meant to come, he does not need to deliberately go about creating him/her, does it? In the end whoever ends leading the fight against the others will be TPTWP and retoractively people will recognize the sign.

Agreed. I think both Aemon and Rhaegar are highly unreliable when it comes to prophecies. Rhaegar’s attempts to reforge the original three of Aegon the Dragon resulted in his death and almost extermination of his House.

This is also the reason why I don’t believe that three heads of the dragon means three people, something Rhaegar semed to be thinking (there must be one more). Dany falls to the same mistake by the guidance of Jorah. I mean how can a sane person take Jorah as a spiritual mentor or a scholar when dealing with the visions and prophecies?

“You must tell them, Sam,” he said. “The archmaesters. You must make them understand. The men who were at the Citadel when I was have been dead for fifty years. These others never knew me. My letters . . . in Oldtown, they must have read like the ravings of an old man whose wits had fled.”

It looks like good old maester sent ravens after ravens to the archmaesters about his opinions on the prophecies. When he said this, his wits were really fleeing.

[Mithras]

what about patchface?

The prophecies of Patchface were never taken as prophecies by a character in the series. So far, they only serve the readers. And they are really hard to crack, especially before the prophesized event occurs.

Good post, Paper Weaver

Prophecy is tricky, and it uses a lot of symbolism with dragons always being Targaryes in prophecies in D&E. Some characters don't get that such as Daemon II thinking a literal dragon would hatch as Whitewalls. When characters try to interpret prophecies before they occur, they are, I guess, always wrong. The prophecy isn't fully explained until after the prophesied event occurs as is the case in D&E where BR explains that the dragon hatching at Whitewalls was Egg and before that, the dragon falling on top of Dunk was Baelor Breakspear.

This is very important and I agree completely. I already stated my opinions about Aemon. Benerro is another person who claimed that Dany is the fulfillment of the AAR prophecy. I suspect his main concerns in backing Dany are political. He sees Dany as a means-to-end. That is why I don't take Dany as the AAR.

[Mithras]

Is there a difference between a prophecy and a vision? The first part of the OP was quite clear, people are told a prophecy about their future and by trying to avoid their destiny they might actually cause their prophecy to become reality. The first part of Mel's "prophecy" is her possibly deliberately causing Stannis to move to ensure Renly will die. The second part where Stannis gets crushed by Renly's ghost at KL is also caused (indirectly) by the actions they took to make the first part happen. Had Mel not told Stannis about the prophecy, he would not have made both first and second part happen. So does a prophecy require you to be aware of it for it to become a reality? The examples of Stannis, Cersei and Miri Maz Duur indicate that a prophecy is a very personal thing. The subject is aware of the prophecy and the subsequent actions lead to the fulfillment of the prophecy.

What confuses me is the Red Wedding. It was foretold to different characters who had absolutely no way of influencing the outcome, namely Dany, Patchface and Arya. Also the people directly involved in the red wedding were totally unaware of this. Does this make the RW something totally different than the prophecies described in this topic?

I think every prophecy depends on a vision or a prophetic dream which are essentially the same thing. Prophecies are verbal statements of visions.

The visions are true and they will happen. But their nature is highly symbolic which means the seer should be very careful in interpreting the visions. Putting too much trust in prophecies to take action in fulfilling them or preventing them to happen is a sure way to doom.

So, what is the point of seeing visions? Though Pycelle was a despicable man, I think he was not wrong in the following quote:

“One more thing. What does the Citadel teach concerning prophecy? Can our morrows be foretold?”

The old man hesitated. One wrinkled hand groped blindly at his chest, as if to stroke the beard that was not there. “Can our morrows be foretold?” he repeated slowly. “Mayhaps. There are certain spells in the old books . . . but Your Grace might ask instead, ‘Should our morrows be foretold?’ And to that I should answer, ‘No.’ Some doors are best left closed.”

This is true for those who are not prepared to see what is behind the door. If one does not have what it takes to handle that knowledge, he/she should not mess with that door.

[Mithras]

Mirri Maz Duur does the same mistake:

“It was wrong of them to burn my temple,” the heavy, flat-nosed woman said placidly. “That angered the Great Shepherd.”

“This was no god’s work,” Dany said coldly. If I look back I am lost. “You cheated me. You murdered my child within me.”

“The stallion who mounts the world will burn no cities now. His khalasar shall trample no nations into dust.”

she sacrifices Rhaego in hopes of avoiding the fullfillment of the prophecy of the Stallion who mounts the world, but probably sets in motion exacty that, by provinding the blood sacrifice needed for Dany´s dragons..

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/87672-drogon-the-stallion-who-mounts-the-world/

I am not sure that MMD killed Rhaego intentionally. Once she killed Drogo, Rhaego would be killed anyway by either Jhaqo or Phono had Jorah not entered the tent. MMD was gloating for her success but even that is dangerous when speaking of prophecies. It is quite likely that MMD’s gloating resulted in the fulfillment of the very prophecy she thought to be over.

I agree that she was wrong in interpreting the Stallion prophecy. The spell of fire immunity she cast in the pyre resulted in the survival of Dany and the hatchlings. Drogon will be the Stallion and Dany will ride him to trample nations.

[Julia H.]

Great OP. I've been looking for a thread like this, and suddenly it's here.

I have mainly questions at the moment.

I think every prophecy depends on a vision or a prophetic dream which are essentially the same thing. Prophecies are verbal statements of visions.

The visions are true and they will happen. But their nature is highly symbolic which means the seer should be very careful in interpreting the visions. Putting too much trust in prophecies to take action in fulfilling them or preventing them to happen is a sure way to doom.

So, what is the point of seeing visions? Though Pycelle was a despicable man, I think he was not wrong in the following quote:

“One more thing. What does the Citadel teach concerning prophecy? Can our morrows be foretold?”

The old man hesitated. One wrinkled hand groped blindly at his chest, as if to stroke the beard that was not there. “Can our morrows be foretold?” he repeated slowly. “Mayhaps. There are certain spells in the old books . . . but Your Grace might ask instead, ‘Should our morrows be foretold?’ And to that I should answer, ‘No.’ Some doors are best left closed.”

This is true for those who are not prepared to see what is behind the door. If one does not have what it takes to handle that knowledge, he/she should not mess with that door.

Visions and prophecies... I don't know, there seems to be some further difference between visions and prophecies. I can agree that prophecies may be verbalized forms of visions, but we talk about Melisandre's visions, not prophecies, even though she verbalizes them, and Maggy's prophecy. Why?

A sure way to doom... So trying to prevent a prophecy is a sure way to make it work, but does that mean that taking action to fulfill a prophecy can be a way to avert it? - Hm... probably not. (I'm curious because Rhaegar tried to fulfill a prophecy and Melisandre is trying hard to make Stannis AAR even though she genuinely believes Stannis is AA.) Or does it simply mean, if you want to take actions to fulfill a prophecy, you will necessarily misinterpret it because your very effort shows you don't understand how the whole thing works? (Poor Mel.)

Are prophecies fulfilled when no one takes them seriously? (It means prophecies don't actually need people who try to avert them.) That could be tested by Patchface because no one realizes that he is telling the future, so his visions can only be called “prophecies” in hindsight, if they do come true. (That's Cassandra, right?)

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

I am not sure that MMD killed Rhaego intentionally. Once she killed Drogo, Rhaego would be killed anyway by either Jhaqo or Phono had Jorah not entered the tent. MMD was gloating for her success but even that is dangerous when speaking of prophecies. It is quite likely that MMD’s gloating resulted in the fulfillment of the very prophecy she thought to be over.

I agree that she was wrong in interpreting the Stallion prophecy. The spell of fire immunity she cast in the pyre resulted in the survival of Dany and the hatchlings. Drogon will be the Stallion and Dany will ride him to trample nations.

unless dany and jorah escaped, as he proposed. if so, the StMtW=Rhaego, woudl still be possible.

[Fire Eater]

Melisandre warned him a numer of times about the betrayal of marsh.. melisandre saw the pink letter.. and melisandre will look like she was the one to "bring him back"..

how can he not trust her after that?

Melisandre never mentions Marsh, for all we know she could have been thinking of someone else. She also never mentions the pink letter.

Mel wouldn't bring him back since, IMO, she wouldn't be there when he wakes up.

[sj4iy]

Melsiandre never mentions Marsh, for all we know she could have been thinking of someone else. She also never mentions the pink letter.

Mel wouldn't bring him back since, IMO, she wouldn't be there when he wakes up.

I don't think she'll be the one to bring him back because he's either not dead or he would have the help of BR and Bran.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Melsiandre never mentions Marsh, for all we know she could have been thinking of someone else. She also never mentions the pink letter.

Mel wouldn't bring him back since, IMO, she wouldn't be there when he wakes up.

Jon, refuses to "know their names"... she probably doesn´t know.. but what matters is what jon will think. Melisandre warned him of the attack, and offered the names of the betrayers. That is what matters imo.

Again, I’m sure she doesn´t know about the pink letter. if i were a red priest i would make sure all my "predictions" were as vague as possible.

What matters is that jon thinks she knew about the pink letter.

She also offered guidance about the ghost warging thing, which again he refuses. Once he comes back from his second life-like experience, he can´t doubt her.

About his resurrection/waking up, we really can´t know. its pure speculation. I´m thinking a scenario in which Melisandre takes the credit, by sacrificing Gerrick kingsblood.. But its actually bran/bloodraven who channels the true sacrifice Asha/theon.

[sj4iy]

Jon, refuses to "know their names"... she probably doesn´t know.. but what matters is what jon will think. Melisandre warned him of the attack, and offered the names of the betrayers. That is what matters imo.

Again, Im sure she doesn´t know about the pink letter. if i were a red priest i would make sure all my "predictions" were as vague as possible.

What matters is that jon thinks she knew about the pink letter.

She also offered guidance about the ghost warging thing, which again he refuses. Once he comes back from his second life-like experience, he can´t doubt her.

About his resurrection/waking up, we really can´t know. its pure speculation. I´m thinking a scenario in which Melisandre takes the credit, by sacrificing Gerrick kingsblood.. But its actually bran/bloodraven who channels the true sacrifice Asha/theon.

Well, the big question about Melisandre isn't what she did or didn't know, or will or won't do...it's why is she trying so hard the get Jon to trust her in the first place. We know that she sees him in her fires, but what does she think he is? Clearly not AAR, but she is trying everything she can to gain his trust, and we aren't really sure what she's planning.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Another interesting example is Mother Mole. She saw ships and interpreted salvation. So she took her people to fulfill the prophecy. They were actually slavers.

Well, the big question about Melisandre isn't what she did or didn't know, or will or won't do...it's why is she trying so hard the get Jon to trust her in the first place. We know that she sees him in her fires, but what does she think he is? Clearly not AAR, but she is trying everything she can to gain his trust, and we aren't really sure what she's planning.

true. I think she feels he is important to her mission. at some point she will realize he is Azor Ahai.

[Jasta11]

Uh, she never regains his trust. He scoffs at her visions right before he gets stabbed:

"Borroq is the least of your concerns. This ranging ...”

“A word from you might have swayed the queen.”

“Selyse has the right of this, Lord Snow. Let them die. You cannot save them. Your ships are lost—”

“Six remain. More than half the fleet.”

“Your ships are lost. All of them. Not a man shall return. I have seen that in my fires.” “Your fires have been known to lie.”

“I have made mistakes, I have admitted as much, but—”

“A grey girl on a dying horse. Daggers in the dark. A promised prince, born in smoke and salt. It seems to me that you make nothing but mistakes, my lady. Where is Stannis? What of Rattleshirt and his spearwives? Where is my sister?”

“All your questions shall be answered. Look to the skies, Lord Snow. And when you have your answers, send to me. Winter is almost upon us now. I am your only hope.”

“A fool’s hope.” Jon turned and left her.

About 10 pages later, he's stabbed.

She did warn him about exactly that, however. And several times. He might at least be more inclined to listen when his personal safety is concerned.

[sj4iy]

Another interesting example is Mother Mole. She saw ships and interpreted salvation. So she took her people to fulfill the prophecy. They were actually slavers.

true. I think she feels he is important to her mission. at some point she will realize he is Azor Ahai.

Good point about Mother Mole.

I wonder if R'hollor is facepalming when Melisandre says "I pray for a glimpse if Azor Ahai, and R'hollor shows me only Snow". He might have to knock her upside the head and be like "It's Jon Snow, alright? Damn, you're slow." XD

[Hos the Hostage]

Kudos, Paper Weaver! Great Thread.

I like the idea of self-fulfilling prophecies, and how people end up rushing to their fate by trying to push it away. I am aware of readers who think all prophecies may not be real after all, but to me, the prophecies themselves seems true, but the effect they have on men is what starts their troubles. This include wrong interpretation of visions by Melisandre.

Regarding Jon, I think the skulls really meant the Bridge of Skulls, and shows Bowen Marsh, the veteran of Bridge of Skulls battle with dagger, ready to strike Jon.

My first reaction to Jon's assassination, before reading the Pink letter carefully, was that Mel was behind the attack, to revive Jon in front of the Wildlings and show the power of R'hllor. She killed him to revive him and bring him over to her side.

[Mithras]

Julia H. I have been thinking more about the difference between prophecies and visions. There is also the case of fortunetelling, which is what Yna does and that is exactly the same as what Maggy did.

I think it is a good idea to explore the origins of visions. Are there different kinds of visions (such as true visions that will happen or the visions that are fabricated through sorcery and sent/showed to a person)?

For example, there was a vision showed to Dany about Rhaego razing a city. I said Rhaego because that is the trivial interpretation of that vision. Since Rhaego is dead, that vision shows a non-existent future.

But we also know that Dany is known to appear as Rhaegar (a male figure) in dreams. Is it possible that the tall lord with copper skin and silver-gold hair was Dany too? I think it is possible, especially after Dany becomes the Genghis Khan of Westeros and unites the khalassars. Dany becomes half a Dothraki khal, half a Targaryen queen with her fiery stallion. In this case, that vision also becomes a true vision like the others.

Who or what sends the visions and dreams? Or are the visions originated from the seers through sorcery? Yna and Maggy use blood magic to predict future. The red priests use fire magic. It is known that glass candles can be used with the same purpose. Bloodraven uses gods know what in predicting the future.

[Julia H.]

Paper Waver...

The Rhaego (Rhaegar) - Dany shift reminds me of Maester Aemon's words: "Dragons are neither male, nor female, Barth saw the truth of that, but now one and now the other, as changeable as flame."

Perhaps the difference between vision and prophecy is simply that prophecies refer to complex long-term events. Maggy's prophecy is a prophecy because it concerns Cersei's life over the years. Prophecies of AAR and TPTWP are obviously long-term predictions and they concern the fate of the realm. Perhaps prophecies are based on complex visions or on a series of visions that a seer has managed to decipher and put together, recognizing the connection between them. Mel's visions may be just independent flashes of symbolic images that are either not related or Mel does not recognize the connection between them so she cannot build up a prophecy. It is the same with Patchface, only Mel tries to interpret the symbolic images she can see (and that's where she makes her famous mistakes), while Patchface simply describes them as images.

Maggy and Cersei

So, what can we conclude for Maggy’s prophecy?

Cersei believes that Tyrion is the valonqar and Margaery is the younger and more beautiful queen in the prophecy of Maggy. She is obviously wrong because all the hints show that Jaime will be the valonqar and there are some really good candidates for the queen to undo Cersei (Sansa, Dany, Arianne etc.)

Poor Cersei, she had a 50% chance to correctly guess who the valonqar was. How much easier is that than guessing the identity of AAR? Yet, she got it wrong.

[Fire Eater]

Jon, refuses to "know their names"... she probably doesn´t know.. but what matters is what jon will think. Melisandre warned him of the attack, and offered the names of the betrayers. That is what matters imo.

Except she doesn't mention specifics, and I doubt she knew of the attack her line of "daggers in the dark" fits with what happened to Kevan with the last line of his POV being "the daggers."

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Except she doesn't mention specifics, and I doubt she knew of the attack her line of "daggers in the dark" fits with what happened to Kevan with the last line of his POV being "the daggers."

Yes, she is a fraud. and yes she could have seen kevan´s death.

But Jon will believe that she saw the attack against him.

Its a number of things that he will think are no coincidences. The raven, the daggers in the dark, ghost, and finally, his resurrection/miracle recovery, which probably Melisandre takes credit of (because thats what frauds do). In his position, anyone would believe her.

We already see he wanted to seek her advice again, while pages before the pink letter he clearly did´t trust her.