The Inevitable Return of the Middle East and North Africa Thread (aka MENA 15)

[Horza]

Gaza:

People could do worse than read this.

Libya:

Not terribly surprised at anything happening there. Gaddafi, unlike a lot of dictators wasn't interested in building a centralised state apparatus, preferring a loose, personalised system of rule. With that gone, there's very little in the way of Libyan institutions for a national government to rally around, or even a new strongman to seize hold of.

The paradoxical thing about the US intervention there was that it was largely possible because there was very little the US had on the line. That Libya can fall apart with everyone from Egypt to Europe more or less shrugging seems to underline that.

[snake]

And NATO has touted Libya as a success story. Hate to see what one of their failures would look like.

MENA seems like one conflict after another right now. Hard times.

[Shryke]

And NATO has touted Libya as a success story. Hate to see what one of their failures would look like.

What would have happened had nothing been done? Not like there's any shortage of examples of that. Dictators slaughtering their own people is not exactly unknown.

[snake]

What would have happened had nothing been done? Not like there's any shortage of examples of that. Dictators slaughtering their own people is not exactly unknown.

You may very well be right. But that doesn't change the fact that Libya is fucked and yet NATO calls it a success which makes them look like idiots.

[Suttree]

@snake

Could you provide the quotes you are referring to? Think that would help us be able to comment.

[Shryke]

You may very well be right. But that doesn't change the fact that Libya is fucked and yet NATO calls it a success which makes them look like idiots.

Uh, no it doesn't. For exactly the reason I just explained. That you said "may very well be right".

[Multaniette]

thanks for posting the interview horza. its an insightful one.

[The Marquis de Leech]

I'm not exactly a fanatical interventionist, but in the case of Libya, you had everyone up to and including the Arab League wanting something to be done. And bearing in mind that if nothing had been done, the only time anyone would mention "Benghazi" would be in reference to the pyramid of skulls Gaddafi would have built outside it.

[snake]

@snake

Could you provide the quotes you are referring to? Think that would help us be able to comment.

Link

Uh, no it doesn't. For exactly the reason I just explained. That you said "may very well be right".

No one will know what Gaddafi would have done. It may well be that he'd have massacred everyone. But the country is fucked right now and that's because of NATO's successful intervention. lol

I'm not exactly a fanatical interventionist, but in the case of Libya, you had everyone up to and including the Arab League wanting something to be done. And bearing in mind that if nothing had been done, the only time anyone would mention "Benghazi" would be in reference to the pyramid of skulls Gaddafi would have built outside it.

Still a colossal fuck up no matter which way you spin it.

[Arkhangel]

There seem to be irrationally high expectations of what should happen in the aftermath of an international intervention. A region which has been rocked, repressed and ruled by violence for decades or generations doesn't stop being violent just because a handful of people are removed from power. When they're deciding whether to intervene the calculation isn't whether the outcome will be peace or violence, the calculation is which path is likely to lead to less violence.

[snake]

Just read this report on the CBC. Support for military action in Gaza is very high in Israel and there is apparently not much tolerance for dissenting opinions. I wonder how much will Israel expand it's operations in Gaza?

[Shryke]

No one will know what Gaddafi would have done. It may well be that he'd have massacred everyone. But the country is fucked right now and that's because of NATO's successful intervention. lol

Well, no, it's partially because of NATO's intervention and partially because of the pre-existing situation. The chances of Libya going well with or without the NATO intervention are almost certainly nil.

And it's funny how you continually contradict yourself. We can't know what Gaddafi would have done, but it's a failure? These two statements contradict each other since if you claim to not know what Gaddafi would have done, you have no baseline against which to establish failure.

[Arkhangel]

Just read this report on the CBC. Support for military action in Gaza is very high in Israel and there is apparently not much tolerance for dissenting opinions. I wonder how much will Israel expand it's operations in Gaza?

I remember seeing a news report not long ago in which they did a vox pop with a young Israeli woman who said (in English, so not a translation issue) that what Israel needed was a final solution to the problem. I was floored to hear that phrase come out of a Jewish Israeli's mouth. Many of the others they spoke to expressed pretty much the same sentiment, although not in the same words.

[Shryke]

Gaza:

People could do worse than read this.

Pretty interesting interview.

I remember seeing a news report not long ago in which they did a vox pop with a young Israeli woman who said (in English, so not a translation issue) that what Israel needed was a final solution to the problem. I was floored to hear that phrase come out of a Jewish Israeli's mouth. Many of the others they spoke to expressed pretty much the same sentiment, although not in the same words.

From the interview in the OP:

SPIEGEL: Do you sometimes feel isolated with your view on the situation?

Diskin: There are plenty of people within Shin Bet, Mossad and the army who think like I do. But in another five years, we will be very lonely people. Because the number of religious Zionists in positions of political power and in the military is continually growing.

I get the impression that the Israeli government and alot of the populace just want the issue over with.

[snake]

Well, no, it's partially because of NATO's intervention and partially because of the pre-existing situation.

And it's funny how you continually contradict yourself. We can't know what Gaddafi would have done, but it's a failure? These two statements contradict each other since if you claim to not know what Gaddafi would have done, you have no baseline against which to establish failure.

It was a fuck up man. Plain and simple. Spin it how ya like, it was a fuck up.

I remember seeing a news report not long ago in which they did a vox pop with a young Israeli woman who said (in English, so not a translation issue) that what Israel needed was a final solution to the problem. I was floored to hear that phrase come out of a Jewish Israeli's mouth. Many of the others they spoke to expressed pretty much the same sentiment, although not in the same words.

It seems that the majority of Israelis want an end put to Hamas and willing to accept whatever that entails.

[Shryke]

It was a fuck up man. Plain and simple. Spin it how ya like, it was a fuck up.

You just keep repeating your mantra while ignoring any points people bring up. God knows you wouldn't want to have to actually think about or argue your position, am I right?

[Shryke]

The one thing that really bugged me in that interview was this part:

SPIEGEL: So what happens next?

Diskin: Israel is now an instrument in the hands of Hamas, not the opposite. Hamas doesn't care if its population suffers under the attacks or not, because the population is suffering anyway. Hamas doesn't really care about their own casualties either. They want to achieve something that will change the situation in Gaza. This is a really complicated situation for Israel. It would take one to two years to take over the Gaza Strip and get rid of the tunnels, the weapons depots and the ammunition stashes step-by-step. It would take time, but from the military point of view, it is possible. But then we would have 2 million people, most of them refugees, under our control and would be faced with criticism from the international community.

How is that any different from the past several years in Gaza? Israel has had the whole place under it's control for quite awhile now. They are just a neglectful and distant occupier, content to control all ways in and out.

[Arkhangel]

From the interview in the OP:

I get the impression that the Israeli government and alot of the populace just want the issue over with.

It was a fuck up man. Plain and simple. Spin it how ya like, it was a fuck up.

It seems that the majority of Israelis want an end put to Hamas and willing to accept whatever that entails.

Including genocide? The average age of Palestinians in Gaza is 17. Their childhood memories will be of the sound of Israeli strikes, and the sight of their families and friends dying. Even if Hamas collapses tomorrow, so long as this cycle of violence continues something just the same will take its place. When you hear people talk about a final, violent solution to the 'Palestinian problem', it's utterly terrifying.

[snake]

How anyone can call NATO's mission in Libya a success is beyond me, but I'm willing to concede that people look at things differently. I, however, cannot see it as anything other than a failure with disastrous consequences. YMMV.

[snake]

Including genocide? The average age of Palestinians in Gaza is 17. Their childhood memories will be of the sound of Israeli strikes, and the sight of their families and friends dying. Even if Hamas collapses tomorrow, so long as this cycle of violence continues something just the same will take its place. When you hear people talk about a final, violent solution to the 'Palestinian problem', it's utterly terrifying.

I don't know but I doubt they'd be willing to go that far. But it seems they are willing to go farther than they ever have before. 'Tis a sad situation all around.