Is Stannis delusional to even think he can ever win the iron throne?

[Lord Warwick]

From here, there is no way at all to take the throne.

Suppose stannis wins the battle of the ice and takes winterfell. The north accepts rickon as their lord. Stannis takes him up as his ward, possibly marries him to rickon to shireen or manderly's granddaughter.

But what then? how many new men can the north give him? 5000? Stannis takes some wildlings and new levies but what does that amount to?

A 15k host which is dysfunctional and of very low quality.

Moreover Winter is coming. Stannis's army nearly collapsed on its march from deepwood motte to winterfell during autumn. How can he possiblly take his army to KL over a distance thrice as big? that through the thick of winter.

A sea invasion is impossible in winter. Stannis would have to wait for another 5 or 6 years before winter ends and he can march on the south.

Bringing in 20k mercenaries from another continent is just as unrealistic. Even the british in the 18th century struggled to bring their armies to america despite their vast nave and established government.

And what will mercenaries do in the brutal winter? How long can stannis pay them for free? They won't sacrifice their lives on a death march through siberia like his own followers

But in five years the chaos and power vaccum will disappear and a stable south will likely emerge furthering diminishing his chance.

An experienced military and political leader like Stannis should see these obvious facts. What is his mindset?

Does he intend to settle in the north at the nightfort? Marry rickon and shireen and ensure that his line lives on? That his grandson the rightful king will one day claim his birth rite.

[House Hendrix of Rock]

He won't settle up north.

I still believe in the possibility of marching south during winter, but not with the Others closing in.

They are the largest dranger for stannis imo.

[Winterfell is Burning]

He won't settle in the North, and I doubt he expects to have full control of Westeros before the Others invade, just to have as much troops as he can.

[Fat Mac]

When the war started there was four other contenders, who are all dead now, two without successors. He's not really delusional, since soon Westeros might not have another option.

[Señor de la Tormenta]

Of course ha can hire them, he did got some of myr before he lunched his attack to Storms End in just a couple of weeks.... planetos works that way. And there could be many companies big as the Golden company By the way, the gold he got of the bank also allows him to buy Lords in two ways; with actual coin, and because of the pressure the bank will do to all the lords who owe many to them and do not support Stannis. Finally, he is the only contender that has the money to feed an army during the Winter, and everybody will end up following King Bread.

Also, if he gets Rickon he does have a key to the RL, after all he is half a Tully. And he has Asha, so might end up getting some from the IB. If you summ up all this he still has some cards to play.

[John Suburbs]

Seems to me that Stannis has already pushed back his plans for the IT "for the nonce."

He's obviously aware of the Others at this point and both Mel and Aemon have brought up the War for the Dawn with him, so it would seem to me that he's focusing on saving Westeros first, which would count a lot in the eyes of the people as to who the rightful king is. I don't think that's the way it will work out for him, but he is a very dutiful man and is probably thinking that he has to save the realm first before he can rule it.

[Vylarr Rivers]

"This is Stannis Baratheon. The man will fight to the bitter end and then some." - Tywin Lannister

Stannis will fight on no matter the odds. He is in a terrible position to take the throne ever since his defeat at KL. But I believe with the south about to be ripped apart by Aegon, the raiding Ironborn and the Lannister/Tyrell alliance about to break his position definitely has improved.

He may be the one who profits the most from the current events happening in the south. However the invading Others could completely destroy his "advantage" of being in the north.

[CJ McLannister]

Yes. He's delusional.

[LordManderlyAsDragonRider]

I think Stannis is focused on the war against the others now, he is not gonna march on KL until that was is over.

The blizzard Stannis and his troops are stuck in is not gonna last forever. That is not how I understand winter anyway, as years and years of non-stop blizzards! There will be lulls in the weather, in which Stannis can move his troops south.

[too hot to handle]

Seems to me that Stannis has already pushed back his plans for the IT "for the nonce."

He's obviously aware of the Others at this point and both Mel and Aemon have brought up the War for the Dawn with him, so it would seem to me that he's focusing on saving Westeros first, which would count a lot in the eyes of the people as to who the rightful king is. I don't think that's the way it will work out for him, but he is a very dutiful man and is probably thinking that he has to save the realm first before he can rule it.

Hit the nail on the head. He is probably more concerned with unifying and consolidating northern power to defend the wall and from there use this as to his advantage to claim the Iron Throne as King and protector of the realm. This is probably 5-10 years in the making since winter will last so long making it near impossible to travel efficiently by land or see. During that time there will be a lot of fighting between Dorne, Stormlands, Reach and Dany's army consistently weakening each other at the very least due to no uniform power structure. I have no idea what role the Vale will play in all this but that might end up being a joint force assuming Sansa seizes control via Harry the Heir. I don't necessarily think this will play out but this is one theory of what may give him a shot.

[HosteenOsteen]

It is precisely because Stannis is fighting for right-even if a rather rigid and limited idea of right--that people want him to win the IT. He has a fighting chance. No more than 30 percent, but a fighting chance. The comment on another board by ember"George48", that Stannis was just the sort of leader who emerged during this sort of struggle in this sort of period, is pertinent I think.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Apart from his determination, I'd like to point out that the North could give him 35,000 men in the next sixth months. 55,000 in five years. And with the Iron Bank backing him, he can hire at least 20,000 sellswords long-term.

Furthermore, the Iron Islands, the Vale, the Riverlands and Dorne are damn unlikely to fight fo the Lannisters and could probably be won over with some (lot of) effort and appropriate success, the Stormlands are basically his anyway, and you've got a winning team.

[Stannis Eats No Peaches]

I'm sure you'd have said the same thing at the beginning of the war, and yet he is the only King of the original 5 who is still alive.

[Talking Hodor]

I'm sure you'd have said the same thing at the beginning of the war, and yet he is the only King of the original 5 who is still alive.

Balon - replaced by Euron

Joffrey - replaced by Tommen

Renly - didn't need replacing - got subsumed by Stannis

Robb - replaced by a super-pissed off North that will betray Stannis and Roose Bolton and crown someone else - Bran, Jon, Rickon, most likely.

Aegon - cropped up out of nowhere

Daenerys - is still gaining power and is likely to make a move on Westeros soon

Mance Rayder - king beyond the wall, might still be in play

Seems like there are more kings (and queens) than ever before. Stannis is the least likely to survive in my opinion.

[titanx5]

The IT is his by right, so why wouldn't you keep fighting.

Balon - replaced by Euron

Joffrey - replaced by Tommen

Renly - didn't need replacing - got subsumed by Stannis

Robb - replaced by a super-pissed off North that will betray Stannis and Roose Bolton and crown someone else - Bran, Jon, Rickon, most likely.

Aegon - cropped up out of nowhere

Daenerys - is still gaining power and is likely to make a move on Westeros soon

Mance Rayder - king beyond the wall, might still be in play

Seems like there are more kings (and queens) than ever before. Stannis is the least likely to survive in my opinion.

Least likely to survive? I think you will be disappointed. The North is not just suddenly going to betray him, Bran it not gong to come back home until at least DOS, Rickon hasnt even been found yet, and Jon is either dead or still going take some time to heal. Plus having the full backing of the IB is a massive boost to his chances, plus GRRM wouldnt have included that if nothing will come of it.

Lannister/Tyrells are going to be fighting fAegon/GC/Dorne and will greatly weaken each other, so Tommen is in the biggest danger of not surviving. Plus you will have Euron weakening the Reach and perhaps steals a dragon. And Dance of Dragons 2.0 is also heavily hinted at which means a Dany vs. fAegon, which will result in more deaths. So it would appear the kings in the south are a greater danger then him at the moment. His he has the WW to deal with, but him least likely to survive and delusional are quite poor assumptions.

[Areo Speedwagon]

double post

[Areo Speedwagon]

The IT is his by right, so why wouldn't you keep fighting.

Least likely to survive? I think you will be disappointed. The North is not just suddenly going to betray him, Bran it not gong to come back home until at least DOS, Rickon hasnt even been found yet, and Jon is either dead or still going take some time to heal.

I've always wondered why people think the North is going to betray the first chance they get. The phrase The North Remembers was included for a reason. Things like that apply on multiple levels. I'm sure word will reach the whole of the North very soon (if it hasn't already) of what Stannis is doing, how he got there, why he's come. Not only that, but then consider Stannis' Hand is making a journey at great to himself to bring back Rickon, a fact that I'm sure Manderly will make public should he be who we hope we think he is and the Boltons lose the upcoming battle. I think that sort of thing is a huge show of faith.

[Big Daddy]

I think it'd be fitting (not to mention hilarious) if after working his ass off for it, Stannis ends up GETTING the Iron Throne in TWOW...only to get killed the same day. Something about the idea of Stannis becoming the shortest reigning King on the Iron Throne is quite charming.

I'd have him be assassinated, but the way GRRM does things, he'd probably die of pneumonia like President William Henry Harrison did after his inauguration speech. Or from an infection he got from a small cut sitting on the throne.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

"This is Stannis Baratheon. The man will fight to the bitter end and then some." - Tywin Lannister

Stannis will fight on no matter the odds. He is in a terrible position to take the throne ever since his defeat at KL. But I believe with the south about to be ripped apart by Aegon, the raiding Ironborn and the Lannister/Tyrell alliance about to break his position definitely has improved.

He may be the one who profits the most from the current events happening in the south. However the invading Others could completely destroy his "advantage" of being in the north.

Well, the bitter end already happened, it was the Blackwater, Stannis' incarnation of the Redgrass Field. What's happening with Stannis now is his "and then some". No, he's not gonna get the Iron Throne.

[sabrecmc]

Stannis is the Jan Brady of Westeros. It is never.going.to.happen. Ever.