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R+L=J v.93


J. Stargaryen

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I agree to an extent, as in he trusted he would not fail to fight for house Targaryen, but he definatly had suspicions about Rhaegar's ambitions. He was probabaly wrong, but. . .

And I screwed up on my previous post, I meant Benjen, not Brandon. :dunce: So to clarify I'll re-post the question.

Do we know where Benjen (not Brandon) was during the rebellion? Do we know his age in relation to Ned or Lyanna? Could he have been w/Lyanna when she was taken-fled w/Rhaegar??

You didn't mess up, I did. I typed Brandon in my post a page back and meant Benjen. Here it is again, fixed

I believe BENJEN was the Stark in Winterfell during the rebellion. And his age....according to the wiki (so take with salt)

Ben was born 267

Lyanna was born 266

Ned was born 262/263

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I agree to an extent, as in he trusted he would not fail to fight for house Targaryen, but he defiantly had suspicions about Rhaegar's ambitions. He was probably wrong, but. . .

I think Aerys kind of didn't have a choice except to call in Rhaegar after the Battle of the Bells. The rebels were winning, Rhaegar was well-known to be missing, and potential Targaryen supporters are going to hang back unless the Targaryens present a united front. We've seen that armies fight better when their ruler dares to accompany them - and that sure isn't going to be Aerys. If Rhaegar doesn't show up, the suspicion will be that Rhaegar is either too craven to show up for the war he's partially responsible for, OR he's rebelling against his father and that will leave Targaryen supporters in the position of having to choose to support father or son - AND probably getting smashed by the rebels while the two of them are infighting. If Aerys wants to preserve his kingdom, his only chance is to show his supporters that his heir remains faithful to his father and fighting for him.

And, Aerys being Aerys, I suppose he could always treasure the hope that Rhaegar would get killed while winning a splendid victory...

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You didn't mess up, I did. I typed Brandon in my post a page back and meant Benjen. Here it is again, fixed

I believe BENJEN was the Stark in Winterfell during the rebellion. And his age....according to the wiki (so take with salt)

Ben was born 267

Lyanna was born 266

Ned was born 262/263

Didn't GRRM once confirm that Benjen was the Stark in Winterfell during the Rebellion?

And the wiki states that Benjen was born in 267AC or later. That second part is important too, since the only hint to Benjens age that we have is that he's younger than Lyanna. :P

Lyanna was born in 266/267AC.

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so you are saying that Harrenhal was not all that important for Rhaegar's feelings/assessment of everything, and he only changed his mind later on after Aegon was born, Elia barren, and the prophecy demanding for another dragon head?

Yes. Lyanna was clearly KotLT and its seems obvious Rhaegar figured that out, and probably talked to her.

The award of QoLaB was honouring her KotLT exploits in the only way he could, not a declaration of love. It was a powerful, noble and honourable thing to do and quite an achievement after all.

Probably.

Note how there is no gossip further emanting from that tourney or immediately after it about Rhaegar and Lyanna.

Note Aegon isn't born for around anouther 9 months or so, and so Rhaegar still has all his plan for three dragons under control with Elia, and still believes when Aegon is born 9 months or so later the Aegon is the PtwP.

Its only when Elia can't have more children that Rhaegar actually needs to start thinking about another woman.

That would be stretching things very far in my opinion. Rhaegar would have always known that 'there have to be three dragon heads - even back when he thought he himself was the promised prince. He didn't feel a rush back then, why should he feel it now?

Because everything is still going to plan with Elia at that stage and he has no need or purpose in romantically looking at another woman.

Why run off/abduct Lyanna at such an unfortunate time? He was only in his early twenties, he could still father children for decades. The decision to run off with Lyanna should have little to do with the prophecy. We know that he thought he needed a third child, but if he did still consider Aegon to be the promised prince after he had met Lyanna, and if he would not have run off with Lyanna if Elia could still give him any children (as you claim), then I don't see how he could have ever reached the conclusion to run off with Lyanna.

Because once he starts thinking about other women, then he thinks of the girl who was KotLT and how great a mother she would be, and then he realises her 'Ice-ness' to his Fire, and then he realises that she's already betrothed and could be married and lost to him any time...

This was no rational decision. The promised prince was born, and I guess the prophecy never specified if the other two heads are supposed to be trueborn or bastards (in fact, it's very likely that the High Valyrian original of the prophecy does not mention the word 'prince' at all), so Rhaegar could have easily fathered the third head of the dragon on a whore, serving-woman, or a noble girl who was not betrothed to a great lord of the Realm.

Obviously YMV, but I find zero merit in this argument. He's a prince, and he isn't likely to be thinking of his three heads, his three dragons, his three 'princes(ses)' (High Valyrian: Dragon = Prince(ss)) as bastards but as trueborn Princes and Princesses.

And it fits with the Aegon the Conqueror motiff. Polygamy, 3 married siblings, three heads of the dragon, etc etc.

It's much more likely that Rhaegar's passion for Lyanna and his sense for duty fought for supremacy during the months between Harrenhal and the abduction. Upon Aegon's birth, and the realization that Elia could not conceive again, Rhaegar's rational mind provided him with the perfect excuse to run off with Lyanna. The prophecy 'dictated' that there had to be another child, and Rhaegar was in love with Lyanna, so why the hell not father that child on her and be happy?!

Thats possible too, but is not actually indicated by any clues we have. And, more importantly can also be true with the above theory. He actually rather likes the KotLT girl he met, but dutifully (thats his thing remember, dutiful above all) ignores that liking because everything is good and going to plan with Elia and thats his purpose in life. Then Elia's inability to provide the third head....

If that's about his rationale, then he did not really have reassess the prophecy, but rather use the prophecy as an excuse to get/take what he wanted.

Thats a possibility, but not one that fits with the character we are presented with. At least not as a primary motive. But its could very likely be a joyful secondary motive.

I cannot imagine a much different scenario, since it would be really odd if Rhaegar's feelings for Lyanna only developed in time. If love was involved at all in this whole thing, it must have been a really passionate love, since the abduction (and the subsequent wedding, if such a thing took place) was very much political suicide. Both would have to be aware of the fact, but didn't care.

They should not have been political suicide though. It should have been quite handleable, and their initial disappearance is precisely the most effective way to begin the handling of it. Brandon's idiocy transformed that playing field in a terrible and un-predictable manner though, and Aerys' response, predictably (if only Brandon's level of idiocy could have been predicted) magnified everything.

It actually works out very neatly as a calculated thing that became love. But that does not preclude an initial attraction, even buried love, from being present initially.

What I know of the events, strongly suggests that there wasn't all that much time between Aegon's birth and Lyanna's abduction, which makes it very unlikely indeed that Rhaegar had much time to reassess the situation. Aegon's birth in itself was only the confirmation that he was the promised prince, and Stark/ice blood really did not feature into the criteria describing the promised prince (or else Jaehaerys II/Aerys would have decided to betroth young Rhaegar to Lord Rickard's daughter).

How much time is really needed though? There is easily several months available between Aegon's birth and the abduction, and it only takes a few days for Elias current condition to become clear and very little time to reasssess from then. Literally minutes if you like, even a couple more days to think it over and then initiate some sort of contact or correspondence.

Since it's really very likely that Rhaegar fell in love with Lyanna at Harrenhal, it's also very likely that this development would have caused Rhaegar to second-guess his reassessment of the prophecy long before Aegon's birth. But it's confirmed that he did not do such a thing.

Nothing makes it 'likely' that he fell in love at Harrenhal. Quiet clearly, if he did, he buried it in his duty towards the prophecy and his 3 dragons with Elia. No reassessment is needed due to a bit of a crush on a girl met for one evening or so.

Robert's reaction to the Lyanna thing was just the sort of way nobles react when other nobles/royals harm their pride/take what's theirs. Walder Frey arranged the Red Wedding, Robert rebelled. Wait and see what the houses did who were humiliated by Egg's sons...

We have no idea what, if any, Robert's reaction to the Lyanna thing was.

His reaction to Jon Arryn rebelling instead of forwarding Robert and Ned's head's to Aerys was to sign on, but thats basically a foregone conclusion given the alternative...

Since this thread lately is quite pro R+L=J, what are the arguments that R+L ≠J?

There are no good ones.

Occasionally people try, but they always have important facts wrong or missing from their attempts.

Sometimes they get quite huffy when these absences and inconsistencies get pointed out. This thread has a less than stellar reputation for friendliness due to that, but IMO its very much mostly the fault of people who come in puffed up full of certainty and really don't like being shot down. Quite often they get fairly aggressive about it, and then accuse everyone else of being unwelcoming.

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On Aerys and Rhaegar:



Rhaegar confirmed in ASoS to Jaime that he was plotting treason (i.e. trying 'to do something about his father' - ADwD sort of confirmed that this thing was supposed to be a covert Great Council at Harrenhal). That means that Aerys (or Varys, who supposedly told him about that) were right. I'm pretty sure Aerys took this sort of thing not likely, i.e. civil war was in the air. The fact that Rhaegar dared not (or felt that he could not) continue with his plan after Aerys decided to attend Harrenhal, strongly suggests that Aerys had enough supporters and power prior to the outbreak of the Rebellion, that there was a very good chance that he would order the arrest/execution of Rhaegar and disinherit him and his children in favor of Prince Viserys.



In that scenario, Aerys and his supporters would have used virtually every thing Rhaegar did or did not do against him. What could have worked better than Rhaegar running away with Lyanna, and secretly marrying her without his father's consent? That could have been seen as treason even if the king and the Crown Prince had gotten along quite well. Look what happened when Prince Duncan the Small married to wrong woman? He and Aegon V got along splendidly, but Egg was felt that he had to force him to abandon his claim to the Iron Throne, if wanted to uphold his marriage to Jenny (essentially the situation Edward VIII felt himself in the last century). How the hell could anyone believe that Aerys II - who was paranoid, mad, and had reason to suspect that his son was plotting against him - would just shrug his shoulders when he heard about this whole thing, and say: 'Right, I didn't gave my permission to this polygamous marriage - the first in centuries for a member of House Targaryen -, but now that the marriage has been consummated, and this Northern slut has given birth to a child, I cannot do anything about. Congratulations, boy! You are a father again! Lets go and burn somebody else...'



We all easily believe that Aerys reacted this harshly to Brandon's arrival in KL because he believed he had threatened his son. But if we assume that Aerys might have believed that Rhaegar crowning Lyanna at Harrenhal was a ploy to convince Rickard to forge an alliance with him against Aerys, then Aerys' rage against the Starks may have actually (partially) be directed against Rhaegar rather than against the Starks.


I agree that there is no textual evidence for this, but considering Aerys' obvious mistrust of Rhaegar, I'd be rather surprised if Aerys had reacted this harshly just because Brandon had threatened Rhaegar/challenged him to a duel. It may be that Aerys thought Brandon knew what Rhaegar was up to, and in the whole plan etc. Aerys later also thought Dorne might betray him. He was nuts.



On Rhaegar/Lyanna:



I can't see Rhaegar entering the lists simply to honor Lyanna for a thing as trivial as the Knight of the Laughing Tree thing. Nothing indicates that Rhaegar was all that much into knightly valor stuff, nor does anything indicate that he was aware about the Howland Reed humiliation prior to his investigation of the identity of the Knight of the Laughing Tree.



Now, there is only one subtle hint that Lyanna was romantically drawn to him at Harrenhal (the fact that she weeped when Rhaegar played the harp), but it's there. The obvious thing would be that Rhaegar eventually stumbled upon Lyanna when he investigated the Knight of the Laughing Tree, and they ended up spending an evening/a night talking, after he had realized that she was the mystery knight. But in my opinion it's much more likely that this was merely a starting point of their interaction/relationship at Harrenhal.



When Rhaegar entered the list, determined to win the tourney to crown Lyanna, this was a major romantic thing. We don't really know what caused Rhaegar's feelings (or Lyanna's), and I can't see that the coronation of Lyanna was just a comment on Rhaegar's side that Lyanna secretly subverted the gender roles of Westeros, or that she had shown knightly valor, etc. Rhaegar publicly made a romantic gesture towards Lyanna - it's much more likely that he wanted to prove to her that he was actually in love with her, as he may have been proclaimed before that. Considering that Lyanna supposedly was not that eager to fall in love/didn't not think all that highly about that concept, such a gesture may have been necessary to get her full attention.



Elia does not feature in that at all. Rhaegar did not love her, and neither did she love him. It's pretty clear that they were both forced into an arranged marriage, they liked each other as friends, but they were not romantically drawn to each other at all. This has been all but spilled out by now. In turn, this is a very strong sign that Rhaegar was never in love at all before he met Lyanna. He was a lonely and melancholic youth, and not prone to open up to other people, so it would have always been very difficult to make friends (let alone begin a relationship).


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Occasionally people try, but they always have important facts wrong or missing from their attempts.

Sometimes they get quite huffy when these absences and inconsistencies get pointed out. This thread has a less than stellar reputation for friendliness due to that, but IMO its very much mostly the fault of people who come in puffed up full of certainty and really don't like being shot down. Quite often they get fairly aggressive about it, and then accuse everyone else of being unwelcoming.

Agree completely with this and with the on topic content of your post.

My favorite comment is when dissenters refuse to read the many excellent iterations of this thread citing its length as a deterent and then insist on throwing out an old argument that's already been covered/debunked. "I'm not reading all of that! I want you to convince me now and repeat your work because I don't have the time to do any research of my own!"

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Since this thread lately is quite pro R+L=J, what are the arguments that R+L ≠J?

There are no good ones.

Occasionally people try, but they always have important facts wrong or missing from their attempts.

Sometimes they get quite huffy when these absences and inconsistencies get pointed out. This thread has a less than stellar reputation for friendliness due to that, but IMO its very much mostly the fault of people who come in puffed up full of certainty and really don't like being shot down. Quite often they get fairly aggressive about it, and then accuse everyone else of being unwelcoming---Corbon

The case for R plus L does not equal J

Magical thinking is the norm. The human mind seeks patterns. The biological drive to find patterns sometimes leads to finding patterns where there are none, to make causal connections where there are none. Objective evidence that contradicts understanding naturally and normally fails to make an impression. The ability to step back from the intuitive grasp of what's true and question what seems obvious does not come naturally or easily.

The patterns and connections made in the R+L hypothesis are inventions of the fans rather than GRRM.

In literature, readers have a tendency towards confirmation bias (giving more attention and weight to text that supports a hypothesis than they do to contrary text.) Readers set up quotes or frame sources in ways that will tend to confirm their hypotheses. If the hypothesis is firmly established on text and valid canon, the tendency is harmless.If the hypothesis is not firmly established on text or canon the tendency becomes problematic. When readers proceed to support a hypothesis avoid text that would contradict it, they compound the problem. The problem is that becoming blinded to evidence truly refuting a hypothesis, crosses the line from reasonableness to closed-mindedness.

R plus L does not present a balanced assessment.

Closed minded individuals are not very friendly towards alternatives---This thread's less than stellar reputation for friendliness

When one makes a hopeless investment, one sometimes reasons: I can’t stop now, otherwise what I’ve invested so far will be lost. This is true, of course, but irrelevant to whether one should continue to invest in the project. Everything one has invested is lost regardless. If there is no hope for success in the future from the investment, then the fact that one has already lost a bundle should lead one to the conclusion that the rational thing to do is to withdraw from the project.

To continue to invest in a hopeless project is irrational. Such behavior may be a pathetic attempt to delay having to face the consequences of poor judgment. The irrationality is a way to save face, to appear to be knowledgeable.

Fans and readers have invested much time and effort in to the R plus L hypothesis. The payoff as a back story no longer sufficient. Fans then invest further to make Jon is legitimate or Jon is the price that was promised. However reaching that conclusion requires a little more than confirmation bias.

Motivated reasoning takes confirmation bias to the next level. Motivated reasoning leads one to confirm a hypothesis by ignoring contrary text and distorting the supportive text. This takes the form of elaborate rationalizations. Motivated reasoning responds defensively to a request for sources, actively avoiding the request by asserting it is a settled matter, It attempts to discredit citations that contradict its "evidence" without logical justification. Clearly, motivated reasoning is emotion driven.

Sometimes they get quite huffy when these absences and inconsistencies get pointed out.--Corbon

exactly... motivated reasoning is driven by a desire to avoid the discomfort of holding contradictory hypothesis. Self-delusion, in other words, feels good, and that's what motivates people to vehemently defend obvious falsehoods.

It's easy to understand why many people are advocates of R+L=J "proof" hypotheses. They not only know they're right because of popular support, but they can also claim text that supports their position. They are not idiots or mentally defective simply because they are selectively mistaken in their interpretation of both their support and the text. They have "belief armor" that makes them impenetrable to suggestions that there are alternative explanations that are better accounts of both their support and the text they cite.

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There are no good ones.

That is hubris on your part. Just because you or I can not imagine another solution does not mean George Martin can't.

The case constructed here for R+L=J is shiny and solid looking. Nothing I say will tarnish it.

But, I could easily imagine this whole Titanic of a theory you all have constructed going down because it hits a submerged fact in TWOW or ADOS (more likely this one).

GRRM holds all the cards. Like in a bridge game, you don't tell the opposition what you have, you play the cards at the best time for you. He'll drop some key fact just when you least expect it and like a lighting tech adding a yellow jell, all the blues will become green and the reds orange - the whole look of what you know will be transformed in an "Ah-Ha!" moment.

On Aerys and Rhaegar:

Rhaegar confirmed in ASoS to Jaime that he was plotting treason (i.e. trying 'to do something about his father' - ADwD sort of confirmed that this thing was supposed to be a covert Great Council at Harrenhal). That means that Aerys (or Varys, who supposedly told him about that) were right. I'm pretty sure Aerys took this sort of thing not likely, i.e. civil war was in the air. The fact that Rhaegar dared not (or felt that he could not) continue with his plan after Aerys decided to attend Harrenhal, strongly suggests that Aerys had enough supporters and power prior to the outbreak of the Rebellion, that there was a very good chance that he would order the arrest/execution of Rhaegar and disinherit him and his children in favor of Prince Viserys.

In that scenario, Aerys and his supporters would have used virtually every thing Rhaegar did or did not do against him. What could have worked better than Rhaegar running away with Lyanna, and secretly marrying her without his father's consent? That could have been seen as treason even if the king and the Crown Prince had gotten along quite well. Look what happened when Prince Duncan the Small married to wrong woman? He and Aegon V got along splendidly, but Egg was felt that he had to force him to abandon his claim to the Iron Throne, if wanted to uphold his marriage to Jenny (essentially the situation Edward VIII felt himself in the last century). How the hell could anyone believe that Aerys II - who was paranoid, mad, and had reason to suspect that his son was plotting against him - would just shrug his shoulders when he heard about this whole thing, and say: 'Right, I didn't gave my permission to this polygamous marriage - the first in centuries for a member of House Targaryen -, but now that the marriage has been consummated, and this Northern slut has given birth to a child, I cannot do anything about. Congratulations, boy! You are a father again! Lets go and burn somebody else...'

We all easily believe that Aerys reacted this harshly to Brandon's arrival in KL because he believed he had threatened his son. But if we assume that Aerys might have believed that Rhaegar crowning Lyanna at Harrenhal was a ploy to convince Rickard to forge an alliance with him against Aerys, then Aerys' rage against the Starks may have actually (partially) be directed against Rhaegar rather than against the Starks.

I agree that there is no textual evidence for this, but considering Aerys' obvious mistrust of Rhaegar, I'd be rather surprised if Aerys had reacted this harshly just because Brandon had threatened Rhaegar/challenged him to a duel. It may be that Aerys thought Brandon knew what Rhaegar was up to, and in the whole plan etc. Aerys later also thought Dorne might betray him. He was nuts.

On Rhaegar/Lyanna:

I can't see Rhaegar entering the lists simply to honor Lyanna for a thing as trivial as the Knight of the Laughing Tree thing. Nothing indicates that Rhaegar was all that much into knightly valor stuff, nor does anything indicate that he was aware about the Howland Reed humiliation prior to his investigation of the identity of the Knight of the Laughing Tree.

Now, there is only one subtle hint that Lyanna was romantically drawn to him at Harrenhal (the fact that she weeped when Rhaegar played the harp), but it's there. The obvious thing would be that Rhaegar eventually stumbled upon Lyanna when he investigated the Knight of the Laughing Tree, and they ended up spending an evening/a night talking, after he had realized that she was the mystery knight. But in my opinion it's much more likely that this was merely a starting point of their interaction/relationship at Harrenhal.

When Rhaegar entered the list, determined to win the tourney to crown Lyanna, this was a major romantic thing. We don't really know what caused Rhaegar's feelings (or Lyanna's), and I can't see that the coronation of Lyanna was just a comment on Rhaegar's side that Lyanna secretly subverted the gender roles of Westeros, or that she had shown knightly valor, etc. Rhaegar publicly made a romantic gesture towards Lyanna - it's much more likely that he wanted to prove to her that he was actually in love with her, as he may have been proclaimed before that. Considering that Lyanna supposedly was not that eager to fall in love/didn't not think all that highly about that concept, such a gesture may have been necessary to get her full attention.

Elia does not feature in that at all. Rhaegar did not love her, and neither did she love him. It's pretty clear that they were both forced into an arranged marriage, they liked each other as friends, but they were not romantically drawn to each other at all. This has been all but spilled out by now. In turn, this is a very strong sign that Rhaegar was never in love at all before he met Lyanna. He was a lonely and melancholic youth, and not prone to open up to other people, so it would have always been very difficult to make friends (let alone begin a relationship).

THIS

is amazing and timely, I have been working on a bit of a subtheory to explain why all the KG with Lyanna and "baby Jon" and none with Viserys. This strengthens some of my questions and ponderings. Aerys at the end was planning to immolate himself (apparently he thought he'd rise again as a dragon?), KL, and Rhaegar's family & heir along with it. Yet Viserys was safely out of the city in Dragonstone. Some say Aerys was too far gone to plan anything logical like this - in which case Varys was in charge of burning R's family and shielding Viserys?

Anyway,

this also extends a potential pondering that came to me this morning in the wee hours before the alarm went off: why Lyanna?

Rhaegar the uber handsome dragonlord could have had anyone in the seven kingdoms. Why the wolf maid? Why at that particular time? There was no history of Targs taking Starks and northmen to wife before, right?

The explanation that R might have been trying to reach out to the Starks for an alliance against his dad is interesting, but the way he did it argues against that.

It seems more likely that he lit a shit storm in the north, then ducked out of the way hoping it would hit Aerys and take him out. And that worked pretty well, but Rhaegar in the end couldn't stay out of it as he maybe hoped. He had to sacrifice himself and hope that somehow Jon would survive.

eta

lastly, the "hint" that Lyanna was drawn to R wasn't all that subtle. There's also the bit where Lyanna dumps beer on Benjen's head when he mocks her mooning over Rhaegar. As any observer of teens knows that's the clincher.

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Just to clarify things:



I believe that Rhaegar and Lyanna were in love with each other, and I believe that they are the parents of Jon, and were (probably) also married. I really think ADwD already solved this puzzle, since the only real other candidate was always Ashara Dayne. Wylla was always absurd, and the other option from ADwD - the daughter of the fisherman - is obviously a red herring.



I'd assume that there is a very good chance that Aerys misinterpreted the crowning of Lyanna at Harrenhal as a politically statement - Rhaegar trying to forge an 'an alliance of ice and fire' against him (Targaryens, Martells, and Starks). If Lord Rickard did really have 'Southron ambitions', Aerys would have been aware of that (i.e. because Rickard hung out in the South/at court much more often than previous Lords of Winterfell).



Just as Aerys was obviously completely wrong/nuts to believe that the Martells would turn against House Targaryen later on, there is a pretty good chance that he thought Brandon/Rickard (and later Ned/Robert) had been involved since Harrenhal in a elaborate conspiracy with Rhaegar against him. This could explain why Aerys reacted the way he did, and why he and his council completely failed to grasp the possibility of a Baratheon/Stark/Arryn alliance against House Targaryen: They all were expecting a Targaryen civil war, not so much a war against House Targaryen itself.



When Aerys realized what kind of danger Robert actually posed, he may have decided to allow Rhaegar to deal with the rebels - simply because he had no one else left.



But I really don't believe that Rhaegar thought rationally when he entered the lists, won, and crowned Lyanna. The comparison with Ser Jorah is really fitting, although insofar was the romantically feelings went I guess Rhaegar/Lyanna did not go down the road of Jorah/Lynesse. I guess she would have been horrified by the deaths of her father and brother, but she must have known that her and Rhaegar's actions would have to have consequences. What they did strongly suggests that they were trying to run away from everything - from court and the whole world. We don't really know how and when they learned what was going on, but my guess is that they only sobered up when Ser Gerold found them. I cannot imagine both of them staying at Tower if they had known that a war was being fought because of what they did...


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On Rhaegar/Lyanna:

I can't see Rhaegar entering the lists simply to honor Lyanna for a thing as trivial as the Knight of the Laughing Tree thing. Nothing indicates that Rhaegar was all that much into knightly valor stuff, nor does anything indicate that he was aware about the Howland Reed humiliation prior to his investigation of the identity of the Knight of the Laughing Tree.

I think you're putting words in our mouth. He did not enter the lists ONLY for that reason. The lists were several days long. He was entered in them upon arrival. He may have very well intended to crown Elia if he won--though I don't think he cared one bit about winning; Rhaegar was never into tourneys. It was after he fleshed out the KotLT that he decided to win to honor Lyanna. I think you're trivializing the incident of the mystery knight. It was a big deal, to the point where Aerys had his son seek out the knight because he felt it was an enemy. And then what does R discover? That's it a woman threatening the status quo. And what is R trying to do at Harrnehal? Threaten the status quo by getting support to put his father aside. Like calls to like. He honors what she did and what it stood for.

ETA: and this is not to say that they weren't attracted to each other after R discovered L was the KotLT. These aren't mutually exclusive. His attraction does not have to be based solely in looks but is also a reflection of what Lyanna did.

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On Aerys and Rhaegar:

Rhaegar confirmed in ASoS to Jaime that he was plotting treason (i.e. trying 'to do something about his father' - ADwD sort of confirmed that this thing was supposed to be a covert Great Council at Harrenhal). That means that Aerys (or Varys, who supposedly told him about that) were right. I'm pretty sure Aerys took this sort of thing not likely, i.e. civil war was in the air. The fact that Rhaegar dared not (or felt that he could not) continue with his plan after Aerys decided to attend Harrenhal, strongly suggests that Aerys had enough supporters and power prior to the outbreak of the Rebellion, that there was a very good chance that he would order the arrest/execution of Rhaegar and disinherit him and his children in favor of Prince Viserys.

In that scenario, Aerys and his supporters would have used virtually every thing Rhaegar did or did not do against him. What could have worked better than Rhaegar running away with Lyanna, and secretly marrying her without his father's consent? That could have been seen as treason even if the king and the Crown Prince had gotten along quite well. Look what happened when Prince Duncan the Small married to wrong woman? He and Aegon V got along splendidly, but Egg was felt that he had to force him to abandon his claim to the Iron Throne, if wanted to uphold his marriage to Jenny (essentially the situation Edward VIII felt himself in the last century). How the hell could anyone believe that Aerys II - who was paranoid, mad, and had reason to suspect that his son was plotting against him - would just shrug his shoulders when he heard about this whole thing, and say: 'Right, I didn't gave my permission to this polygamous marriage - the first in centuries for a member of House Targaryen -, but now that the marriage has been consummated, and this Northern slut has given birth to a child, I cannot do anything about. Congratulations, boy! You are a father again! Lets go and burn somebody else...'

We all easily believe that Aerys reacted this harshly to Brandon's arrival in KL because he believed he had threatened his son. But if we assume that Aerys might have believed that Rhaegar crowning Lyanna at Harrenhal was a ploy to convince Rickard to forge an alliance with him against Aerys, then Aerys' rage against the Starks may have actually (partially) be directed against Rhaegar rather than against the Starks.

I agree that there is no textual evidence for this, but considering Aerys' obvious mistrust of Rhaegar, I'd be rather surprised if Aerys had reacted this harshly just because Brandon had threatened Rhaegar/challenged him to a duel. It may be that Aerys thought Brandon knew what Rhaegar was up to, and in the whole plan etc. Aerys later also thought Dorne might betray him. He was nuts.

On Rhaegar/Lyanna:

I can't see Rhaegar entering the lists simply to honor Lyanna for a thing as trivial as the Knight of the Laughing Tree thing. Nothing indicates that Rhaegar was all that much into knightly valor stuff, nor does anything indicate that he was aware about the Howland Reed humiliation prior to his investigation of the identity of the Knight of the Laughing Tree.

Now, there is only one subtle hint that Lyanna was romantically drawn to him at Harrenhal (the fact that she weeped when Rhaegar played the harp), but it's there. The obvious thing would be that Rhaegar eventually stumbled upon Lyanna when he investigated the Knight of the Laughing Tree, and they ended up spending an evening/a night talking, after he had realized that she was the mystery knight. But in my opinion it's much more likely that this was merely a starting point of their interaction/relationship at Harrenhal.

When Rhaegar entered the list, determined to win the tourney to crown Lyanna, this was a major romantic thing. We don't really know what caused Rhaegar's feelings (or Lyanna's), and I can't see that the coronation of Lyanna was just a comment on Rhaegar's side that Lyanna secretly subverted the gender roles of Westeros, or that she had shown knightly valor, etc. Rhaegar publicly made a romantic gesture towards Lyanna - it's much more likely that he wanted to prove to her that he was actually in love with her, as he may have been proclaimed before that. Considering that Lyanna supposedly was not that eager to fall in love/didn't not think all that highly about that concept, such a gesture may have been necessary to get her full attention.

Elia does not feature in that at all. Rhaegar did not love her, and neither did she love him. It's pretty clear that they were both forced into an arranged marriage, they liked each other as friends, but they were not romantically drawn to each other at all. This has been all but spilled out by now. In turn, this is a very strong sign that Rhaegar was never in love at all before he met Lyanna. He was a lonely and melancholic youth, and not prone to open up to other people, so it would have always been very difficult to make friends (let alone begin a relationship).

Good points.

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Elia does not feature in that at all. Rhaegar did not love her, and neither did she love him. It's pretty clear that they were both forced into an arranged marriage, they liked each other as friends, but they were not romantically drawn to each other at all. This has been all but spilled out by now. In turn, this is a very strong sign that Rhaegar was never in love at all before he met Lyanna. He was a lonely and melancholic youth, and not prone to open up to other people, so it would have always been very difficult to make friends (let alone begin a relationship).

What possible clues do we have that Elia didn't love Rhaegar ? We have zero indications in the books about Elia's feelings for Rhaegar. We just know that Rhaegar didn't love Elia but was "fond of her". So, most likely they were good friends but it could also have been an unrequited love.

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